Podcast Show Notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics (28 Oct 2025)
Episode Title: Yen bid, oil soft, minerals pact signed — the policy currents moving markets
Overview:
Today’s briefing covers a stronger yen after the US–Japan summit, softer crude as OPEC+ eyes a small supply increase, gold slipping below USD 3.9k/oz, and base metals easing into a dense event calendar. On policy, Washington and Tokyo unveiled a six-month roadmap to back end-product projects in critical minerals and rare earths; China and ASEAN upgraded their FTA; the UK is floating a “steel club” with the US and EU; and US–Canada trade tensions linger. Geopolitically, Gaza remains volatile, Russia–Ukraine sanctions continue to reshape energy flows, DPRK–Russia ties deepen, and Tokyo–Seoul aim for an Oct 30 summit.
Key segments:
- FX: USD steady, JPY stronger post-summit; yuan fixed stronger; GBP softer on UK fiscal-space chatter.
- Commodities: OPEC+ leaning to ~137k bpd hike; IEA flags 300 bcm LNG wave; gold below USD 3.9k/oz; copper eases.
- Trade & tariffs: US–Japan critical-minerals framework with six-month project actions; China–ASEAN FTA 3.0; UK “steel club”; US–Canada tensions; Japan nears opening to Brazilian beef.
- Geopolitics: Gaza ceasefire strains; Russia–Ukraine sanctions filter through oil logistics; DPRK–Russia dialogue; Tokyo–Seoul summit planning; Beijing’s five-year plan priorities.
What to watch next:
- Any near-term project lists under the US–Japan minerals framework.
- Concrete outcomes and language from Trump–Xi later this week.
- OPEC+ confirmation of a third consecutive modest hike and its size/timing.
- Sanction enforcement effects on Russian flows into Europe and Asia.
- Signals from Tokyo–Seoul on economic and security coordination.