The Indispensable Partner? India and the geopolitics of global trade.

The 2024 edition of the AIG Global Trade Series explores the theme of ‘Back to the Future: A New Era of Managed Trade?’  

While the BJP fell short of an overall majority in India’s recent parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set for a third consecutive term – but this time as part of a coalition government. This is uncharted territory for the world's most populous country.

How might this new political constellation affect India's economic and geopolitical decision-making? What are the potential implications for India's trade policy and its positioning between the US and China, both of whom see it as a necessary partner? Lastly, what does the new political environment in Delhi mean for India's attractiveness as a destination for companies and investors looking to de-risk from China?

Panelists:       
Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, Council on Foreign Relations 
Neha Mishra, Assistant Professor, International law, Geneva Graduate Institute 

Moderator:  Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute 

This podcast episode was recorded on 24 June 2024.   

Related content from GTS Contributors: 

Book | Why Nations Rise: Narratives and the Path to Great Power 
Book | Wronged by Empire, Post Imperial Ideology and Foreign Policy in India and China 
Paper | International Trade Law Meets Data Ethics: A Brave New World 
Paper | Data at the Docks: Modernising International Trade Law for the Digital Economy

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The Global Trade Series is a collaboration between AIG and the following international organisations with leading expertise on global trade: the Aspen Institute Germany; CEBRI - the Brazilian Center for International Relations; Chatham House (UK); CITD - the Center on Inclusive Trade and Development at Georgetown University Law Center (US); the Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands); Elcano Royal Institute (Spain); ERIA – the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (Indonesia); ISPI - the Italian Institute for International Political Studies; the Jacques Delors Institute (France); RIETI - the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan); and the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity through Trade (Switzerland).  

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast series are those of the speakers and do not reflect the views, policy or position of American International Group Inc, or its subsidiaries or affiliates (AIG). Any content provided by the speakers in this podcase series is their opinion, and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or group of individuals or anyone or anything. AIG makes no warranty or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, correctness or validity of any information provided during this podcast series, and AIG will not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or omissions in the information provided during this podcast series or any damages, losses, liabilities, injuries resulting from or arising from the Podcast including your use of the Podcast.

What is AIG Global Trade Series?

Back to the Future: a New Era of Managed Trade?

Globalisation’s next chapter is being written, driven by concerns about supply chain risks. The global trade in goods is increasingly seen through a security prism in capitals around the world and governments are developing new policies to reduce unwanted dependencies, seek new sources of leverage and guarantee supplies. Trade links are being reordered as policymakers scramble to secure access to strategic materials and positions in global value chains. Meanwhile, geopolitical turbulence and climate ambitions are giving rise to industrial policies, sanctions and a growing use of subsidies.

From investment screening to quotas to export controls, policymakers are proposing an increasing number of tools and policies to steer trade and investment flows. But despite worries about protectionism and fragmentation, trade continues as the private sector manages risk by embracing diversification. Elections in the US, EU, Mexico, UK, Indonesia, India and elsewhere may also lead to a reordering of the global politics of trade. Has the global trade system entered an era of managed trade? What will it mean for regional approaches to trade, and what does it mean for multilateralism and the WTO? Ultimately, the main question could be: who is in the driving seat in this brave new world for trade?