1 00:00:01,050 --> 00:00:04,615 Welcome to the Market Pulse Podcast. I'm your host, Jesse Hardin. 2 00:00:04,715 --> 00:00:08,455 I'm a member of the Equifax advisory team, and as a group, 3 00:00:08,595 --> 00:00:11,095 we identify economic considerations. 4 00:00:11,675 --> 00:00:15,935 We leverage data and analytics to translate that information into industry 5 00:00:16,215 --> 00:00:17,048 insights. 6 00:00:17,165 --> 00:00:21,295 This helps us make recommendations to support our clients 7 00:00:21,915 --> 00:00:26,895 during economic uncertainty and to really uncover growth opportunities in 8 00:00:27,135 --> 00:00:29,215 consumer and commercial credit risk spaces. 9 00:00:30,155 --> 00:00:34,055 I'm pleased to welcome our usual cast of characters. I've got Dave Soka. Hey, 10 00:00:34,056 --> 00:00:34,889 Dave. 11 00:00:35,075 --> 00:00:36,015 Hey, Jesse. How are you? 12 00:00:37,505 --> 00:00:39,685 Hey, doing well. I've got Tom O'Neill. 13 00:00:40,675 --> 00:00:41,645 Good afternoon, Jesse. 14 00:00:43,385 --> 00:00:47,645 Hey, Tom. And last, and certainly not least we have Maria Urtubey. Hey, Maria. 15 00:00:47,784 --> 00:00:49,685 Hi. Good morning. Still here, ? 16 00:00:50,315 --> 00:00:52,125 Yeah, there you go. Yeah, I forgot about that. 17 00:00:52,745 --> 00:00:57,445 And then we've got a voice missing today. So Emmaline Aliff is is on vacation. 18 00:00:58,345 --> 00:01:02,605 We we actually do let our people go on vacation. So she's on special. 19 00:01:02,805 --> 00:01:03,638 I thought. Thought it was special. 20 00:01:04,005 --> 00:01:04,838 Assignment. 21 00:01:04,965 --> 00:01:09,285 Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Hopefully it's a good place. So how's everybody doing? 22 00:01:09,525 --> 00:01:10,885 I know there's a lot going on right now. 23 00:01:12,194 --> 00:01:14,965 Like what I, I anything happening? 24 00:01:15,675 --> 00:01:18,685 Yeah, like, well, baseball's, baseball's going again. Oh. 25 00:01:18,825 --> 00:01:21,885 The important stuff, right? Yeah, absolutely. Well, yeah. 26 00:01:22,475 --> 00:01:25,005 Yeah. No, there could be, there could be undertones to that. Yeah. 27 00:01:25,006 --> 00:01:27,165 There's a little bit going on with the economy, I would say. 28 00:01:27,694 --> 00:01:28,685 Maybe a thing or two. 29 00:01:29,194 --> 00:01:29,865 Yeah. 30 00:01:29,865 --> 00:01:34,485 And my football team, Liverpool is nine points away, I believe, 31 00:01:34,555 --> 00:01:38,805 from winning the leagues. So two or three more games, and we got it in the bag. 32 00:01:38,806 --> 00:01:43,725 And that's not a knock on on other football teams that people on this 33 00:01:43,726 --> 00:01:45,365 podcast may or may not be supporting. 34 00:01:45,605 --> 00:01:47,685 Yeah. That, that we'll not speak of. Yes. 35 00:01:48,395 --> 00:01:53,325 Yeah. So for the listeners, we've got we've got actually four on the, on the, 36 00:01:53,805 --> 00:01:57,405 the team here that are that, as Dave said, football fans, 37 00:01:57,565 --> 00:02:01,885 I would say they're soccer fans, but either, either here nor there. 38 00:02:03,695 --> 00:02:05,825 Well, good. Well, so I wanna do, you know, 39 00:02:06,695 --> 00:02:11,264 when we think about where we've gone with you know, 40 00:02:11,265 --> 00:02:12,985 with things related to the economy, 41 00:02:13,095 --> 00:02:17,544 what I'd like to do today is really set the stage for a discussion around 42 00:02:17,965 --> 00:02:19,825 how things have evolved in, you know, 43 00:02:19,826 --> 00:02:23,065 in the us especially with the macroeconomic picture of where we've, 44 00:02:23,066 --> 00:02:26,585 where we've gone. There's certainly a lot to unpack. You know, 45 00:02:26,586 --> 00:02:28,345 when we think about the recent events that we've, 46 00:02:28,535 --> 00:02:32,825 that we've seen when we started in January, I think there's, 47 00:02:32,826 --> 00:02:34,585 there's a lot of momentum that we saw, 48 00:02:35,025 --> 00:02:39,425 a lot of optimism building with the economy. And it's almost like then, wham, 49 00:02:39,615 --> 00:02:41,665 it's like this policy change and, 50 00:02:41,764 --> 00:02:45,385 and economic changes that really kind of, you know, 51 00:02:45,705 --> 00:02:49,465 changed the overall outlook maybe to some extent and to some, 52 00:02:49,625 --> 00:02:54,025 maybe not to others you know, but what I'd like to do today is, is, you know, 53 00:02:54,026 --> 00:02:57,305 kind of uncover what we've seen, do a, do a deeper dive, 54 00:02:57,306 --> 00:02:58,905 and we'll talk you know, 55 00:02:58,965 --> 00:03:02,325 we'll talk a little bit more about where we see things you know, 56 00:03:02,326 --> 00:03:04,685 kind of playing out there. Before we do that though, 57 00:03:04,764 --> 00:03:09,285 I want to take a quick a quick break and we'll we'll let you hear from our 58 00:03:09,286 --> 00:03:10,685 friends at Moody's and, 59 00:03:10,745 --> 00:03:15,685 and going through some of the important economic and consumer metrics that that 60 00:03:15,686 --> 00:03:16,519 are relevant today. 61 00:03:17,925 --> 00:03:21,645 The global trade war has escalated sharply driving the effective tariff rate to 62 00:03:21,646 --> 00:03:23,165 levels not seen in over a century. 63 00:03:23,925 --> 00:03:27,325 Business and consumer confidence have weakened supply chains are under strain, 64 00:03:27,705 --> 00:03:32,085 and global investment is stalling. The labor market remains resilient for now. 65 00:03:32,606 --> 00:03:36,165 March saw stronger than expected gain of 228,000 jobs, 66 00:03:36,705 --> 00:03:40,745 but hiring is slowing and public sector layoffs loom. Meanwhile, 67 00:03:40,885 --> 00:03:45,145 the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% as labor force participation approved 68 00:03:45,575 --> 00:03:49,985 inflation cooled in March with headline CPI falling 0.1%, 69 00:03:50,405 --> 00:03:53,545 and core easing to 2.8% year over year. 70 00:03:54,125 --> 00:03:56,145 But with tariffs set to push costs higher, 71 00:03:56,685 --> 00:04:00,625 the reprieve may prove short-lived now to monetary policy. 72 00:04:00,925 --> 00:04:04,825 The Fed is holding steady for now watching for the net impact of tariffs on both 73 00:04:04,826 --> 00:04:07,305 prices and employment before easing. 74 00:04:07,885 --> 00:04:10,625 Our baseline is that the US economy avoids recession, 75 00:04:11,145 --> 00:04:14,665 assuming it deescalation on trade, but the risks are rising. 76 00:04:15,025 --> 00:04:18,865 A prolonged conflict could erode the United States safe haven status and push 77 00:04:18,866 --> 00:04:20,305 the economy into a downturn. 78 00:04:21,005 --> 00:04:23,585 Thanks, Moody's. So, 79 00:04:23,654 --> 00:04:27,505 it's sort of hard to escape the news cycle right now with the economy. 80 00:04:28,285 --> 00:04:30,025 We think about where the markets have gone. 81 00:04:30,135 --> 00:04:33,625 When you see the s and p and the Nasdaq and the Dow, you know, 82 00:04:33,626 --> 00:04:35,585 some of those are off almost 15%. 83 00:04:35,645 --> 00:04:40,185 We see some of the confidence surveys whether it's the University of Michigan or 84 00:04:40,186 --> 00:04:43,625 it's the whether it's the conference, 85 00:04:43,626 --> 00:04:48,225 board surveys you know, kind of those, those stories, you know, 86 00:04:48,226 --> 00:04:52,945 show that we've seen decreases in in confidence and 87 00:04:53,175 --> 00:04:55,625 this notion of uncertainty building in the economy. 88 00:04:56,325 --> 00:04:58,385 And so I think the bulk of this podcast, 89 00:04:58,535 --> 00:05:02,545 what we want to do is we want address those changes in the, you know, 90 00:05:02,546 --> 00:05:06,105 in the economic landscape. But I, I think we want to go a little deeper. 91 00:05:06,165 --> 00:05:08,105 We want to talk about some of the key drivers. 92 00:05:08,645 --> 00:05:10,265 We want to focus on what it means, 93 00:05:10,325 --> 00:05:14,705 but then we want to focus on the impact to consumers and businesses. 94 00:05:15,205 --> 00:05:19,904 And then, you know, really focus on recommendations that we can make. So, 95 00:05:20,125 --> 00:05:23,105 so what are the recommendations that we want, you know, we want you, 96 00:05:23,106 --> 00:05:28,025 the listener to understand as it relates to the portfolios that you that 97 00:05:28,026 --> 00:05:30,785 you manage. So a good example would be, 98 00:05:30,786 --> 00:05:34,785 we want to find a practice or two that we would suggest you look at maybe to 99 00:05:34,786 --> 00:05:37,904 help mitigate some of the impacts that we're feeling right now in the economy. 100 00:05:38,645 --> 00:05:42,585 So that said, does that sound like a decent plan team? Yes, it does. 101 00:05:42,586 --> 00:05:46,985 Sounds like quite the undertaking. Yeah. It, it is a lot. Yeah, certainly. 102 00:05:47,485 --> 00:05:49,464 So, okay. Well, let's get started then. 103 00:05:50,605 --> 00:05:55,545 So I think the best thing to do would be to start out and just to address how 104 00:05:55,665 --> 00:06:00,005 did we go from a consensus of kind of stronger economic growth to where we are 105 00:06:00,006 --> 00:06:02,765 right now, which is that we're probably feeling a little more headwinds, 106 00:06:03,285 --> 00:06:05,285 a little more economic uncertainty. Dave, 107 00:06:05,585 --> 00:06:07,365 can I ask you to maybe kick off on that one? 108 00:06:07,995 --> 00:06:10,605 Sure. Jesse. So, so job security, 109 00:06:11,525 --> 00:06:13,765 spending power and inflation, 110 00:06:14,395 --> 00:06:19,345 what was looking rosy a month ago, maybe a couple weeks ago now, 111 00:06:19,365 --> 00:06:20,585 has us rethinking everything, 112 00:06:21,645 --> 00:06:25,225 the American consumer as well as businesses are reading the news, 113 00:06:25,935 --> 00:06:29,464 hearing the announcements, and are now suddenly concerned about the future. 114 00:06:30,645 --> 00:06:35,615 Most people and businesses prefer to live and operate with a degree of 115 00:06:35,616 --> 00:06:40,255 certainty in their lives, to have this much uncertainty thrust upon the economy. 116 00:06:40,565 --> 00:06:43,975 Certainly muddles the waters in terms of an outlook for the rest of the year, 117 00:06:44,635 --> 00:06:46,214 but obviously, 118 00:06:47,335 --> 00:06:52,075 businesses as well as consumers have had plans and I would say monitor 119 00:06:52,255 --> 00:06:55,115 the plans and act accordingly for changes. 120 00:06:57,675 --> 00:06:59,605 Yeah. Interesting. Dave, I, you know, I, 121 00:06:59,665 --> 00:07:02,885 as I was thinking about it a little bit further with what you were saying, 122 00:07:03,005 --> 00:07:07,045 I think it's, it's sort of ironic because when we think about the, 123 00:07:07,265 --> 00:07:08,245 the data that we're seeing, 124 00:07:08,246 --> 00:07:13,045 there's almost like this juxtaposition between hard economic data and 125 00:07:13,145 --> 00:07:16,085 the soft data, which is kinda like that consumer survey, 126 00:07:16,235 --> 00:07:18,405 that consumer sentiment data. You know, 127 00:07:18,406 --> 00:07:23,085 it seems like the hard data's not really indicating that there's there's as much 128 00:07:23,145 --> 00:07:25,445 to worry about the, the soft data. 129 00:07:25,765 --> 00:07:28,205 The consumer data's maybe telling a little bit different story. 130 00:07:28,265 --> 00:07:32,525 So it almost seems like you know, are we you know, are, 131 00:07:32,545 --> 00:07:37,245 are we feeling like consumers are really going to get there in terms of you know 132 00:07:37,825 --> 00:07:40,805 are they really gonna act on that sentiment that they're that they're 133 00:07:40,806 --> 00:07:41,639 expressing? 134 00:07:42,405 --> 00:07:43,805 Yeah. And, and Jesse, I see it as, 135 00:07:44,025 --> 00:07:48,885 as an interesting mix of that hard and soft data that you referenced, 136 00:07:48,905 --> 00:07:52,165 not just now, but, but really what we've been through 137 00:07:53,795 --> 00:07:58,005 it's easy to say for the past year, but really for, for the past five years, we, 138 00:07:58,205 --> 00:08:01,965 we, we can go back to the beginning of, of the pandemic and say, we've, 139 00:08:02,215 --> 00:08:06,445 we've been seeing this uncertain mix of hard and soft data for, 140 00:08:06,625 --> 00:08:11,445 for that length of time. And, and we see that manifest itself in, in, 141 00:08:11,625 --> 00:08:14,845 you know, the consumer sentiment that you were talking about, you know, 142 00:08:14,965 --> 00:08:17,845 if people feel okay and, and, but not great. And, 143 00:08:17,865 --> 00:08:20,805 and how is that impacted by headlines? You know, 144 00:08:20,806 --> 00:08:23,405 we see things like inflation is, it's under control, 145 00:08:23,406 --> 00:08:26,405 but it's not quite dead yet. And we, 146 00:08:26,406 --> 00:08:31,165 we have all of these areas that, that are sort of gray. 147 00:08:32,065 --> 00:08:36,725 But, but the nice thing is data is still our friend, friend. 148 00:08:36,726 --> 00:08:40,804 Through all of this, we can still look at what's actually transpired. 149 00:08:41,025 --> 00:08:44,965 And while no one, none of us at least have, have that crystal ball to say, 150 00:08:44,966 --> 00:08:47,965 here's what's going to happen in the months ahead, 151 00:08:48,585 --> 00:08:52,804 we can be pretty intelligent about seeing what the ramifications of all the 152 00:08:52,805 --> 00:08:56,285 things that we have been through over the last five years and see what the 153 00:08:56,286 --> 00:09:00,365 impact is on not, not just consumers in mass, 154 00:09:01,145 --> 00:09:03,804 but different populations, different cohorts and, 155 00:09:03,805 --> 00:09:07,165 and different segments of the society as well as, you know, different, you know, 156 00:09:07,166 --> 00:09:08,885 small business and commercial enterprises. 157 00:09:09,925 --> 00:09:13,215 Yeah. Tom exactly that it's been five years. 158 00:09:13,355 --> 00:09:15,934 So are we still feeling this uncertainty? 159 00:09:16,525 --> 00:09:19,175 What are the reasons behind the consumer sentiment, 160 00:09:19,235 --> 00:09:24,215 and why is this soft data showing four consecutive months of decline? 161 00:09:24,875 --> 00:09:27,855 And is it just a sentiment, as you said, consumers are reacting, 162 00:09:28,205 --> 00:09:31,535 they're being more cautious, they're cutting back on spending, 163 00:09:31,804 --> 00:09:36,255 even assessing if and when to make big purchases. Is it the right time? 164 00:09:37,035 --> 00:09:40,735 All these behaviors, as you said, manifesting that sentiment, 165 00:09:40,875 --> 00:09:45,655 not just standalone sentiments we've been discussing internally and how it 166 00:09:45,656 --> 00:09:46,615 shows, for example, 167 00:09:46,795 --> 00:09:51,695 in the big spread of consumers reactions some needing to 168 00:09:51,696 --> 00:09:56,215 make the car purchase and acting quickly given the impact on car, car tariffs, 169 00:09:56,595 --> 00:10:00,655 others not faced with a need, postponing the big purchase, 170 00:10:00,995 --> 00:10:03,615 not at this moment sticking to necessities. 171 00:10:05,215 --> 00:10:07,385 Yeah, and I'm, I'm raising my hand. I'm one of those that, 172 00:10:07,386 --> 00:10:11,545 that went out and took advantage of the, the car purchase while I could. 173 00:10:11,645 --> 00:10:15,545 So definitely something that, that we've seen and makes a lot of sense. 174 00:10:15,684 --> 00:10:19,425 So let's let's switch gears and talk about, you know, 175 00:10:19,745 --> 00:10:22,225 probably arguably one of the you know, 176 00:10:22,226 --> 00:10:25,065 one of the biggest impacts that we're fee that, that we're seeing right now, 177 00:10:25,066 --> 00:10:29,105 and that's tariffs. So I'm gonna start, Tom with you then, 178 00:10:29,106 --> 00:10:33,065 if I could maybe talk a little bit more about the importance of tariffs and the 179 00:10:33,066 --> 00:10:37,785 potential impact that we see both to American consumers and business owners. 180 00:10:38,295 --> 00:10:42,145 Yeah. So, so the, the basic answer to that, what is a tariff? 181 00:10:42,615 --> 00:10:45,945 Tariffs are a charge on, on imports or exports depending upon the country, 182 00:10:46,085 --> 00:10:50,105 you know, levying the tariffs. They are an additional fee. 183 00:10:51,105 --> 00:10:53,865 And, and, and that, that fee is placed on the, 184 00:10:53,885 --> 00:10:56,825 the ability to bring in goods and services from other places. 185 00:10:57,885 --> 00:11:02,545 And the impact to the consumers and to businesses here in the United States 186 00:11:02,546 --> 00:11:05,105 really depends on the size of, 187 00:11:05,245 --> 00:11:09,425 of those tariffs and what those tariffs are and, and what they're on. 188 00:11:10,945 --> 00:11:12,425 You know, it could be on, 189 00:11:12,525 --> 00:11:16,985 on a particular item that's of essential need and that there's no real 190 00:11:17,115 --> 00:11:19,865 substitute for. So it's not something that, 191 00:11:19,975 --> 00:11:24,345 that the consumer can easily switch to buying something different or buying a 192 00:11:24,625 --> 00:11:29,425 domestic version of that. And in those cases, that, that, 193 00:11:30,054 --> 00:11:34,545 that additional cost is going to be felt very directly on the consumer or the 194 00:11:34,705 --> 00:11:35,905 business making those purchases. 195 00:11:36,245 --> 00:11:38,905 Or it could be something where there is a lot of flexibility. You know, 196 00:11:38,906 --> 00:11:43,465 maybe there is the, an alternative to drive towards a domestic version of it, 197 00:11:43,745 --> 00:11:48,425 you know, that's not incurring that price. So it, it's, it, it is one of those, 198 00:11:48,684 --> 00:11:51,945 it depends types answers. But, 199 00:11:52,165 --> 00:11:55,205 but essentially it is an increase in the cost of those, 200 00:11:55,655 --> 00:11:59,125 those different items. And as we've been seeing 201 00:12:00,985 --> 00:12:02,445 the impact of, 202 00:12:02,585 --> 00:12:07,205 of what that is isn't gonna be felt until we actually see 203 00:12:07,875 --> 00:12:12,165 what, what actually plays out. You know, what are those going to be? What, 204 00:12:12,166 --> 00:12:16,205 what is the, what is the sustainability of those, those tariffs, you know, 205 00:12:16,265 --> 00:12:20,365 is it something that that there's going to be reciprocation on? 206 00:12:20,425 --> 00:12:25,165 Is there going to be resolution on those? So, so ultimately the impact, what, 207 00:12:25,235 --> 00:12:29,804 what, what flows into the hard data that we're going to be seeing, you know, 208 00:12:30,245 --> 00:12:34,925 will take some time to, to manifest itself, but as, as I was mentioning before, 209 00:12:35,785 --> 00:12:39,045 we can at least look at some parallels, for instance, 210 00:12:39,046 --> 00:12:41,965 like some of the inflationary periods that we went through and say, okay, 211 00:12:42,465 --> 00:12:45,725 if some of these things come to pass, if we see, you know, 212 00:12:46,085 --> 00:12:49,804 increases in affordability issues, what has been the impact? 213 00:12:49,835 --> 00:12:51,605 What sense can we make from that? What, 214 00:12:51,715 --> 00:12:54,845 what strategies can we take to account for that? 215 00:12:56,445 --> 00:13:01,205 Yeah, Tom, I use kind of one of the, the words that I love to use with my kids. 216 00:13:01,425 --> 00:13:05,205 And it goes back to the, it's not a one size fits all stories. It, 217 00:13:05,206 --> 00:13:06,085 it truly depends, 218 00:13:06,184 --> 00:13:11,125 and I'm gonna kind of highlight business as well as consumers. 219 00:13:11,126 --> 00:13:15,445 And so for businesses kind of relying on overseas suppliers, 220 00:13:15,785 --> 00:13:17,565 the impact potentially is really huge. 221 00:13:18,255 --> 00:13:23,005 Think finished product manufacturers or even your local restaurant who sources 222 00:13:23,035 --> 00:13:25,525 product and supplies from other countries 223 00:13:27,125 --> 00:13:28,405 shifting to families. 224 00:13:29,065 --> 00:13:32,325 It could mean fewer tree toys under the Christmas tree this year, 225 00:13:33,345 --> 00:13:38,165 the cost of toys imported from China will be at least 50% higher given the 226 00:13:38,166 --> 00:13:38,999 current levels. 227 00:13:39,265 --> 00:13:43,725 So that added cost to a household budget could result in half as many toys under 228 00:13:43,726 --> 00:13:47,485 the tree this year. It all boils down to the consumer, 229 00:13:48,465 --> 00:13:49,298 the business, 230 00:13:49,705 --> 00:13:53,845 and where they make purchases from and where those products originate from. 231 00:13:56,025 --> 00:14:00,434 Yeah, that's, that's interesting, Dave. I, I know when I'm talking to customers, 232 00:14:00,475 --> 00:14:03,795 I get a lot of questions about like, how do I measure the impact of tariffs? 233 00:14:04,054 --> 00:14:08,715 And I was thinking about a study that Yale brought up. It was a, 234 00:14:08,795 --> 00:14:12,115 a study from the Yale Budget Lab. And there was a, 235 00:14:12,175 --> 00:14:15,554 an impact graph that was, that was really telling to me, 236 00:14:15,555 --> 00:14:19,155 and it looked at the impact of overall disposable income. 237 00:14:19,255 --> 00:14:23,115 And Tom, I think when you talked about the definition of tariff, 238 00:14:23,395 --> 00:14:27,755 I think we know that tariffs can tend to be a regressive tax on 239 00:14:28,335 --> 00:14:29,995 on consumers, right? You know, the, 240 00:14:29,996 --> 00:14:34,795 the idea that it's that we will see more of an impact on disposable income 241 00:14:34,796 --> 00:14:38,835 from lower income households. And that's that's always a worry. 242 00:14:38,995 --> 00:14:43,795 I think we've heard economists we work with, with Moody's a lot, 243 00:14:43,975 --> 00:14:47,755 and one of the things that we've heard is there's a rough estimate that you can 244 00:14:47,775 --> 00:14:52,605 use, which is for every sustained percentage point increase in the tariff rate, 245 00:14:53,025 --> 00:14:57,365 we would potentially see that inflation could be impacted by 10 basis points. 246 00:14:58,025 --> 00:15:02,485 And GDP by seven basis points to the negative. That's, 247 00:15:02,486 --> 00:15:07,205 that's kind of a lot of math. The way I boil it down is really the impact to, 248 00:15:08,565 --> 00:15:11,125 you know, to us as Americans is that, you know, 249 00:15:11,126 --> 00:15:15,085 things can be more expensive and, and really, it, it, you know, it may, 250 00:15:15,185 --> 00:15:17,885 it may you know, drive the, 251 00:15:18,145 --> 00:15:23,125 the overall outcome that consumers like, like all of us you know, have. 252 00:15:23,505 --> 00:15:25,005 And so I think that's you know, 253 00:15:25,006 --> 00:15:27,565 certainly when we think about the overall impact, that's one that I, 254 00:15:27,955 --> 00:15:30,725 that I watch just because it's it's, you know, one, 255 00:15:30,726 --> 00:15:34,565 it's kind of fun to see the math, but then it's really interesting, I think to, 256 00:15:34,665 --> 00:15:37,605 to, you know, truly gauge where, where things might be going. 257 00:15:39,295 --> 00:15:41,795 And, and this translates, as you were saying, 258 00:15:42,155 --> 00:15:47,035 just into the decrease in spending right. How is real income trending over time? 259 00:15:47,825 --> 00:15:52,755 Even personal savings we're up to the low four percent this year 260 00:15:52,756 --> 00:15:55,755 after reaching 3.3 percent low in December, 261 00:15:56,495 --> 00:16:00,955 but still away from the historic average of seven point 0.5 262 00:16:01,636 --> 00:16:02,436 let alone of course, 263 00:16:02,436 --> 00:16:06,915 the 30 percent savings rate during covid times with stimulus money. 264 00:16:07,095 --> 00:16:10,075 So those savings are now diminished or gone. 265 00:16:11,035 --> 00:16:15,955 Consumers have to now assess exactly what their disposable income is and what 266 00:16:15,956 --> 00:16:18,875 their savings are. And you might ask yourself, 267 00:16:18,935 --> 00:16:21,315 how can I now limit my purchases to essential, 268 00:16:21,555 --> 00:16:26,155 so even switch brands that are more aligned with my cuts in spending based on 269 00:16:26,175 --> 00:16:30,635 the reality that I have ahead. And in the case of our customers, 270 00:16:30,695 --> 00:16:31,995 for example, the lenders, 271 00:16:32,345 --> 00:16:35,595 they're still facing these same challenges since their customers are these 272 00:16:35,915 --> 00:16:38,235 consumers. They might want to grow with new customers, 273 00:16:38,705 --> 00:16:42,035 they might want to better manage their current customers, 274 00:16:42,135 --> 00:16:45,195 and they're trying to mitigate risk balancing growth objectives. 275 00:16:45,375 --> 00:16:49,715 But all of these are the same consumers with declining consumer 276 00:16:50,355 --> 00:16:51,875 sentiment that are pushing back. 277 00:16:53,785 --> 00:16:56,355 Yeah, great point. Maria. I was even, you know, 278 00:16:56,395 --> 00:16:59,035 I was even thinking about an example, I, I , 279 00:16:59,235 --> 00:17:02,955 I was talking to a friend of mine that has a, a business here locally. 280 00:17:03,185 --> 00:17:06,994 It's a tile and flooring business. And it was interesting, 281 00:17:06,995 --> 00:17:09,435 we were kind of talking about tariffs, and one of the things that, 282 00:17:09,505 --> 00:17:13,994 that he had mentioned to me is that they, they have a small location, 283 00:17:14,055 --> 00:17:16,435 and they were really looking to expand this year. They had, 284 00:17:16,436 --> 00:17:19,555 they had put together a fund to, to try and build a new location. 285 00:17:20,815 --> 00:17:22,555 It was interesting that the, 286 00:17:23,175 --> 00:17:27,035 the outlook now for his business is such that he had to take all of that money 287 00:17:27,175 --> 00:17:30,515 and, and apply it towards inventory to try and, you know, 288 00:17:30,516 --> 00:17:35,355 and try and beat the the tariffs so that he can stay competitive. And, 289 00:17:35,356 --> 00:17:37,155 you know, that's one of the things, as I think about it, 290 00:17:37,156 --> 00:17:40,715 obviously that's just one example. It's not you know, 291 00:17:40,865 --> 00:17:45,355 it's not happening across the board, but when we think of the impact, you know, 292 00:17:45,356 --> 00:17:48,955 for businesses, maybe they were thinking one way at the start of the year, 293 00:17:49,425 --> 00:17:51,125 and they really had to shift their thought process. 294 00:17:51,345 --> 00:17:54,325 And that's something that I think is you know, is certainly, 295 00:17:54,665 --> 00:17:58,005 we may not have anticipated that at the first of the year that we would be 296 00:17:58,006 --> 00:18:01,285 thinking of, you know, major business shifts, but it is one that's happening. 297 00:18:01,315 --> 00:18:01,925 Yeah. 298 00:18:01,925 --> 00:18:04,205 I, I like that example you gave the, 299 00:18:04,305 --> 00:18:07,605 the small business example that you just gave there, Jesse, and, 300 00:18:07,705 --> 00:18:11,445 and turning it again, back to the, the consumer view, 301 00:18:11,984 --> 00:18:13,845 not all that different. You know, we know that the, 302 00:18:13,846 --> 00:18:18,725 the impact's going to be felt differently by by different populations. 303 00:18:19,525 --> 00:18:22,085 And, and, and we've actually seen some of that. And, 304 00:18:22,205 --> 00:18:24,484 and this goes back to what I was saying earlier in that, you know, 305 00:18:24,485 --> 00:18:25,525 we could even, 306 00:18:25,585 --> 00:18:30,005 as we're heading in times of uncertainty and heading into more uncertainty, 307 00:18:30,025 --> 00:18:34,445 we could still look at the data that we do have to make some intelligent, 308 00:18:34,785 --> 00:18:39,285 you know, sense out of what's going on. And, and, and we've, we have, 309 00:18:40,445 --> 00:18:40,975 I guess, 310 00:18:40,975 --> 00:18:45,925 sorry to say some rich data on the impact of inflation over the last few years. 311 00:18:46,105 --> 00:18:49,845 We know that the, the KS shaped economy is real. That, 312 00:18:49,955 --> 00:18:54,165 that there have been people since the pandemic that have been, 313 00:18:55,205 --> 00:18:58,505 if not, you know, just, you know, making due, 314 00:18:58,605 --> 00:19:02,385 but even thriving in some cases, you know, through all of these conditions. 315 00:19:02,445 --> 00:19:06,425 And we know that there are a large portion of the populations that are really 316 00:19:06,426 --> 00:19:09,305 struggling with affordability and other factors. And, 317 00:19:09,625 --> 00:19:14,545 and that's gonna be exasperated, you know, with this as, as tariffs do incur. 318 00:19:14,605 --> 00:19:17,785 I'm not gonna go all Grinch that Dave did and, and talk about, you know, 319 00:19:18,025 --> 00:19:22,505 boys under the tree. But, but that is the impact. You know, 320 00:19:22,925 --> 00:19:26,705 family households are going to feel this differently. Some are, 321 00:19:27,215 --> 00:19:29,425 some are going to wave it off as a nuisance. 322 00:19:29,775 --> 00:19:34,265 Some are going to really struggle with their, their basic household needs. 323 00:19:34,645 --> 00:19:38,825 And, and we saw that with inflation, we have the, the potential of seeing, 324 00:19:39,085 --> 00:19:43,305 you know, this to some degree as the result of, of sustained tariffs. 325 00:19:44,965 --> 00:19:48,775 Yeah, it's a, I think a great point, Tom. I mean, obviously if, if, you know, 326 00:19:48,776 --> 00:19:49,855 if you follow economic data, 327 00:19:49,915 --> 00:19:54,815 we got some of the spending spending data today it, it's, you know, 328 00:19:55,095 --> 00:19:57,734 consumers are already kind of indicating that they're hoarding, you know, 329 00:19:57,735 --> 00:20:01,935 getting, getting that you know, that last purchase end. So yeah, it's, 330 00:20:01,936 --> 00:20:06,935 it's interesting to see the you know, sentiment play out. So I think, 331 00:20:07,195 --> 00:20:07,695 you know, 332 00:20:07,695 --> 00:20:12,255 that certainly great points related to headwinds around you know, 333 00:20:12,256 --> 00:20:16,935 around the tariffs. Let's kind of brings me to my next my next thought, 334 00:20:16,936 --> 00:20:19,655 which is leading indicators. 335 00:20:19,885 --> 00:20:23,615 What leading indicators should we really be watching for? I know economists, 336 00:20:23,675 --> 00:20:27,215 you know, they look at and, and even market watchers, you know, 337 00:20:27,216 --> 00:20:30,575 they're looking at data, they're trying to understand what that data tells them, 338 00:20:30,715 --> 00:20:34,815 but but what indicators, if we think of our customers you know, 339 00:20:34,816 --> 00:20:39,734 should they be looking at to get a better idea for whether or not you know, 340 00:20:39,735 --> 00:20:42,095 the, the consumer is really starting to act on the, 341 00:20:42,355 --> 00:20:45,055 the sentiment that they're providing. Dave, let's go ahead and start with you. 342 00:20:46,155 --> 00:20:46,835 Yeah, thanks. And some of. 343 00:20:46,835 --> 00:20:48,965 That thunder has been stolen already, 344 00:20:49,105 --> 00:20:52,805 so and I'll try to be not Grinch like for, for you, Tom. 345 00:20:52,865 --> 00:20:56,885 So so there's really two things. So the, you know, 346 00:20:56,886 --> 00:20:59,525 the health of the US economy relies on consumer spending. 347 00:21:00,415 --> 00:21:04,075 So the spot potential recessionary trends pay close, 348 00:21:04,515 --> 00:21:06,595 close attention to consumer behavior. 349 00:21:07,335 --> 00:21:11,835 Are people rushing to buy those big ticket items like cars and appliances ahead 350 00:21:11,836 --> 00:21:12,795 of tariff increases, 351 00:21:13,595 --> 00:21:17,715 surprised they have been are they using their tax refunds to pay down debt, 352 00:21:18,015 --> 00:21:21,755 or will they still be spending freely to facilitate those pull those big 353 00:21:21,994 --> 00:21:26,835 purchases being pulled forward? Changes in these spending patterns can signal a, 354 00:21:26,955 --> 00:21:31,234 a shift in consumer confidence. On the other side, 355 00:21:31,835 --> 00:21:34,555 additionally, job numbers are a crucial indicator. 356 00:21:35,395 --> 00:21:40,115 Our recent C-N-B-C-C-E-O poll showed a percentage of CEOs anticipating or 357 00:21:40,515 --> 00:21:42,435 considering job reductions this year, 358 00:21:43,515 --> 00:21:48,175 we need to monitor employment closely as another potential sign of an economic 359 00:21:48,176 --> 00:21:49,009 downturn. 360 00:21:52,135 --> 00:21:56,825 Yeah. So, yeah, definitely. I, I think very, 361 00:21:56,855 --> 00:22:01,185 very insightful points, Dave, when we think of the economy and, and you know, 362 00:22:01,186 --> 00:22:05,744 jobs certainly we've seen consistency in the unemployment rate. 363 00:22:05,845 --> 00:22:08,545 But yeah, I, I think to to, you know, 364 00:22:08,565 --> 00:22:11,465 to some of the conversations that we've heard around, you know, 365 00:22:11,466 --> 00:22:14,065 the employment rate, how, how quickly it went up towards the, 366 00:22:14,244 --> 00:22:18,025 the fourth quarter, and so yeah, that great great insight there. 367 00:22:18,725 --> 00:22:23,545 One other thing that I would add to that you guys are providing 368 00:22:23,546 --> 00:22:23,786 some, 369 00:22:23,786 --> 00:22:28,785 some great indicators from sort of that macroeconomic perspective. 370 00:22:29,785 --> 00:22:32,465 And I'm gonna, I'm going to go to my tried and true role and, 371 00:22:32,484 --> 00:22:35,465 and turn it back to the consumer again and, and say, one of the things, 372 00:22:35,466 --> 00:22:38,625 especially for our clients to be looking at at this point, 373 00:22:39,305 --> 00:22:43,505 are those delinquency rates as, as boring as those, 374 00:22:43,675 --> 00:22:48,025 those are as traditional as those are, those are going to be the first signs of, 375 00:22:48,325 --> 00:22:53,225 of where we're starting to see more consumer stress. And, 376 00:22:53,505 --> 00:22:55,865 and, and that's particularly 377 00:22:57,545 --> 00:23:00,505 relevant given not just tariffs and, 378 00:23:00,506 --> 00:23:02,065 and the things that we've been talking about here, 379 00:23:02,085 --> 00:23:05,744 but everything that's going on, you and, and we're even to the point of, 380 00:23:05,765 --> 00:23:09,825 you know the resumption of student loan delinquencies and the impacts of those. 381 00:23:10,285 --> 00:23:13,225 So from a consumer standpoint, from a lending standpoint, 382 00:23:13,975 --> 00:23:18,545 it's always important to, to be monitoring those risk levels and, 383 00:23:18,685 --> 00:23:23,545 and any changes to what's happening off of your portfolio. But, you know, 384 00:23:23,815 --> 00:23:25,705 it's, it's goes without saying that's, 385 00:23:25,706 --> 00:23:27,625 that it's particularly important right now. 386 00:23:28,975 --> 00:23:31,455 And, and I was going to add in terms of indicators, Jesse, 387 00:23:31,456 --> 00:23:32,535 that you were asking about, 388 00:23:32,675 --> 00:23:37,535 we could also argue home equity has reached 35 trillion on the other 389 00:23:37,536 --> 00:23:42,375 hand. So this 80% increase since the beginning of 2020 is 390 00:23:42,615 --> 00:23:45,484 phenomenal. But at the same time, we're hearing concerns, 391 00:23:45,665 --> 00:23:48,285 not just relating to the high borrowing costs, 392 00:23:48,785 --> 00:23:52,205 but the increase in property taxes and homeowners insurance, 393 00:23:52,345 --> 00:23:56,005 and these individuals are hesitating, what do I do next? 394 00:23:56,185 --> 00:23:58,125 How do I meet these payment obligations? 395 00:23:59,105 --> 00:24:03,565 We could also argue 60% over 60% of the US is a homeowner, 396 00:24:03,705 --> 00:24:05,445 but most carry a mortgage. 397 00:24:05,945 --> 00:24:10,405 So they're likely asking all of these questions we have to keep in mind the 398 00:24:10,406 --> 00:24:13,045 overall associated housing costs besides, of course, 399 00:24:13,785 --> 00:24:17,205 the consumer spending and the necessities of households. 400 00:24:17,744 --> 00:24:18,845 And then we have the renters, 401 00:24:18,994 --> 00:24:23,205 they are part of the uneven k shape economy that Tom was 402 00:24:23,815 --> 00:24:27,765 discussing. And we are, they're facing even more challenges right now. 403 00:24:29,545 --> 00:24:32,195 Yeah. great, great comment. Maria, 404 00:24:32,755 --> 00:24:36,035 I was even as I was thinking about that, I was, I was thinking about and, 405 00:24:36,095 --> 00:24:38,075 and I'll close this section out, but I was thinking about the, 406 00:24:38,215 --> 00:24:42,435 the idea of the wealth effect. So we, we think of the wealth effect, 407 00:24:42,436 --> 00:24:46,355 it's this notion that consumers react when there's a stronger con, you know, 408 00:24:46,356 --> 00:24:50,075 confidence level in their personal wealth. They may spend more, 409 00:24:50,076 --> 00:24:54,075 they may consume more when assets are higher than than when they're not. 410 00:24:54,655 --> 00:24:56,835 And like you said, Marie, there's a lot of home equity, 411 00:24:56,836 --> 00:25:00,075 there's a lot of investment asset out there. And, 412 00:25:00,655 --> 00:25:04,475 and so when we see things like 401k statements, and I would, 413 00:25:04,555 --> 00:25:09,355 I would encourage everybody, maybe don't open those right, right away. You know, 414 00:25:09,356 --> 00:25:11,395 but certainly, you know, when we, when we see those, 415 00:25:11,605 --> 00:25:15,155 those those downtrends and assets you know, it's, 416 00:25:15,156 --> 00:25:19,035 it's a good indication I think of where confidence level is and, and how to, 417 00:25:19,095 --> 00:25:23,234 you know, how do consumers react to seeing that comfort, that, that comfort, 418 00:25:23,305 --> 00:25:27,395 that that wealth brought you know, to have, have an impact. 419 00:25:27,415 --> 00:25:31,315 And so you know, that that can also kind of lead to stress levels that, 420 00:25:31,375 --> 00:25:35,875 you know, that change you know, consumption and, and and economic behavior. 421 00:25:37,255 --> 00:25:40,675 So, okay. That's great. So what I'll do is you know, last five minutes, 422 00:25:40,835 --> 00:25:43,875 I want to switch gears and really talk about those best practices, though, 423 00:25:43,895 --> 00:25:48,715 the things that we can we can impart on our listeners really as they observe 424 00:25:49,455 --> 00:25:50,675 what's happening in the economy, 425 00:25:50,695 --> 00:25:53,234 things that they can do to help mitigate the stress and, 426 00:25:53,535 --> 00:25:57,475 and really kind of get over the you know, over the, the, 427 00:25:57,615 --> 00:25:59,635 the hump initially of like looking at the data, 428 00:25:59,734 --> 00:26:03,675 but then how do we react to that? So Tom, let's start with you on that. 429 00:26:04,065 --> 00:26:08,315 Sure. I'll, I'll, I'll kick that part off and, and really what I'm gonna say is, 430 00:26:08,375 --> 00:26:12,115 is gonna come across as a bit self-serving, you know, coming from, from Equifax, 431 00:26:12,335 --> 00:26:13,595 but, but really the, 432 00:26:13,935 --> 00:26:17,555 the way to reduce uncertainty is with information and, 433 00:26:18,255 --> 00:26:21,835 and applying that information on a regular, 434 00:26:22,395 --> 00:26:27,075 frequent basis is the best way of not only being able to 435 00:26:27,076 --> 00:26:28,595 understand the situation as it is, 436 00:26:28,855 --> 00:26:33,115 but also to pivot as that situation changes over time. And, and, 437 00:26:33,375 --> 00:26:38,275 and we know that that's going to be the case, whatever that uncertainty is, 438 00:26:38,295 --> 00:26:42,035 we know that the uncertainty is going to exist. And so work with the, 439 00:26:42,105 --> 00:26:44,484 work with the information at hand, you know, 440 00:26:45,865 --> 00:26:47,435 stay fluid in terms of your, 441 00:26:47,545 --> 00:26:52,195 your strategic development and be able to adapt 442 00:26:52,635 --> 00:26:56,395 and, and, and as we see that the, the customers that are dealing with, 443 00:26:56,425 --> 00:26:57,635 with additional stress 444 00:26:59,405 --> 00:27:04,395 start showing signs of that you'll be in a position to not only, you know, 445 00:27:04,396 --> 00:27:06,315 protect yourself, protect your portfolio, 446 00:27:06,415 --> 00:27:10,915 but also work with them to help them through these particular times of, 447 00:27:10,935 --> 00:27:13,635 of transitory, you know, struggling. Yeah. 448 00:27:13,635 --> 00:27:14,468 Maria, how about you? 449 00:27:14,785 --> 00:27:19,595 Yeah, I will go back to what I said earlier in how to find that balance between 450 00:27:19,765 --> 00:27:23,915 mitigating risk and looking for those growth opportunities in these uncertain 451 00:27:24,275 --> 00:27:26,715 scenarios. As Tom was mentioning, 452 00:27:26,775 --> 00:27:31,355 you will need to fine tune or even be more intentional or targeted with new 453 00:27:31,595 --> 00:27:34,035 customers and existing customer management. 454 00:27:34,655 --> 00:27:38,915 And it is going to be harder now to identify these pockets, 455 00:27:39,105 --> 00:27:42,795 even if limited. But if you want to identify these segments, 456 00:27:42,796 --> 00:27:44,675 you need more data and insight. 457 00:27:45,135 --> 00:27:48,075 You need to be more orderly in how you're using that data, 458 00:27:48,335 --> 00:27:52,115 how you're leveraging the trends to find those limited opportunities. 459 00:27:52,375 --> 00:27:54,355 So that's what you want to make sure you do. 460 00:27:54,725 --> 00:27:58,915 Istan was saying as frequently as possible, as fine tuned as possible, 461 00:27:59,365 --> 00:28:03,715 given there might be fewer, but there's still, there still are opportunities. 462 00:28:03,895 --> 00:28:07,435 And of course, if you're first during uncertain times, 463 00:28:07,815 --> 00:28:10,675 you're ahead of the game once things start picking up again. 464 00:28:10,785 --> 00:28:13,755 Yeah. Thanks Maria and Tom, and I guess I, the one thing I would add, 465 00:28:13,895 --> 00:28:17,915 and that's based upon conversations that I've had over the last several weeks 466 00:28:17,984 --> 00:28:22,835 with both consumer and commercial lenders is that a lot of them are taking 467 00:28:22,955 --> 00:28:26,755 a wait and see approach in terms of any kind of changes to be made. 468 00:28:26,756 --> 00:28:27,955 And some of you said this in our, 469 00:28:27,956 --> 00:28:30,355 in our market pulse survey over the last couple of months as well. 470 00:28:31,425 --> 00:28:35,715 Obviously business plans were made coming out of Q4 471 00:28:37,355 --> 00:28:38,995 and, and heading into 2025, 472 00:28:39,015 --> 00:28:41,435 and things were a lot different just a few months ago. 473 00:28:41,975 --> 00:28:44,715 So a lot of companies are out there saying it's a little too early to decide. 474 00:28:45,735 --> 00:28:47,235 And that's really what I think 475 00:28:48,755 --> 00:28:53,035 building on both what Tom and Maria have said is that it's not time to panic. 476 00:28:53,615 --> 00:28:56,395 If you've got sound business practices, you're in good shape. 477 00:28:58,495 --> 00:28:58,916 You've, 478 00:28:58,916 --> 00:29:03,715 you've got formative formalized lending as well as 479 00:29:03,716 --> 00:29:06,115 account management policies in place and strategies, 480 00:29:06,745 --> 00:29:09,915 just make sure you're staying on top of them with the right information and then 481 00:29:09,916 --> 00:29:12,515 taking appropriate action in a timely fashion, 482 00:29:13,055 --> 00:29:16,315 and that'll help mitigate any kind of uncertainty that you might experience. 483 00:29:16,585 --> 00:29:19,715 Yeah, I, I wholeheartedly agree, Dave. And, and, 484 00:29:19,895 --> 00:29:23,275 and I'd like to play off of what both Maria and Dave were, 485 00:29:23,305 --> 00:29:26,275 were talking about there. Dave mentioned having, you know, 486 00:29:26,895 --> 00:29:28,355 the sound strategies that, 487 00:29:28,545 --> 00:29:32,675 that that that lenders have put into place 488 00:29:33,895 --> 00:29:36,235 at the end of 2024 to see how they're, 489 00:29:36,236 --> 00:29:40,235 they're going to approach 2025 and how a lot of them are in a wait and see, 490 00:29:40,415 --> 00:29:40,995 you know, 491 00:29:40,995 --> 00:29:45,645 mode to see what kind of events play out and what the data does start 492 00:29:45,646 --> 00:29:48,565 saying. And of course, that's going to be a a, 493 00:29:48,585 --> 00:29:51,965 an interesting thing to finish to figure out as well is like, 494 00:29:51,966 --> 00:29:54,645 how long do we stay in that, wait wait and see, 495 00:29:54,646 --> 00:29:58,485 because ultimately the move the world is continuing to move forward. 496 00:29:58,665 --> 00:30:00,485 So at some point we need to act, 497 00:30:01,065 --> 00:30:03,885 but I'd like to to sort of emphasize some of the point, you know, 498 00:30:03,886 --> 00:30:05,405 one of the points that Maria was making, 499 00:30:05,515 --> 00:30:10,325 that having the ability to be flexible and not necessarily 500 00:30:10,755 --> 00:30:15,645 sort of just work in a reactive mode could very well work in your 501 00:30:15,646 --> 00:30:19,045 favor. A lot of lenders potentially could be clamping down. Yeah. 502 00:30:19,245 --> 00:30:21,485 And we see that in times of uncertainty. We see the, 503 00:30:21,625 --> 00:30:24,565 the natural inclination to sort of pull back. 504 00:30:25,425 --> 00:30:30,005 And we also see that in those periods there are frequently 505 00:30:30,195 --> 00:30:33,725 opportunities for growth opportunities to take advantage where others are 506 00:30:33,726 --> 00:30:37,205 pulling back to go in and fill the need that is exposed. 507 00:30:37,865 --> 00:30:42,005 So this is what we're talking about in terms of being able to not just 508 00:30:42,715 --> 00:30:46,005 look at that data and, and look at it frequently, 509 00:30:46,425 --> 00:30:51,365 but also to be able to adapt and move fluidly as a result of looking at that 510 00:30:51,366 --> 00:30:54,605 data and, and not just mitigate risk, 511 00:30:54,665 --> 00:30:56,685 but also to take advantage of opportunities. 512 00:30:56,995 --> 00:30:59,885 Yeah, and I think I'll, I'll close this out really playing off on, 513 00:30:59,985 --> 00:31:03,965 on almost everything that you guys said, which is don't forget your experiences. 514 00:31:04,895 --> 00:31:06,645 We've think, you know, we think about the, 515 00:31:06,745 --> 00:31:11,285 the last five years or so in the economy that we faced in the pandemic and 516 00:31:11,286 --> 00:31:15,605 leading, you know, to after the pandemic, we had higher inflation, 517 00:31:15,745 --> 00:31:18,725 we had more stress, there was inventory shocks. 518 00:31:19,515 --> 00:31:23,085 Certainly the drivers may be different now than, than than then. 519 00:31:23,905 --> 00:31:25,925 But what I, what I think is, you know, 520 00:31:25,926 --> 00:31:27,765 a good thing to remember is that we have good data. 521 00:31:28,105 --> 00:31:32,845 We can see what those behaviors were a couple of years ago, and that data is, 522 00:31:32,905 --> 00:31:35,725 you know, is the experience that we have that we can play off of and, 523 00:31:35,745 --> 00:31:38,125 and really look at what it told you. 524 00:31:38,225 --> 00:31:42,165 So I'm sure all of our customers did postmortems on what that, 525 00:31:42,275 --> 00:31:43,885 what that data looked like, 526 00:31:43,886 --> 00:31:47,885 doing analysis to see what the reaction of consumers at that time was. 527 00:31:48,025 --> 00:31:51,805 And so build that baseline and really use that, 528 00:31:51,875 --> 00:31:53,565 that information that you had and, 529 00:31:53,585 --> 00:31:58,445 and think about how maybe we see similarities to where we are now and 530 00:31:58,446 --> 00:32:02,205 differences, and then react to that data. I think that's you know, 531 00:32:02,206 --> 00:32:03,405 that's kind of a culmination of, 532 00:32:03,505 --> 00:32:06,685 of all of what we said in terms of how to react. 533 00:32:07,465 --> 00:32:09,485 So I think then what we'll do is we'll call that a podcast. 534 00:32:10,365 --> 00:32:13,885 I want to certainly thank my panel. It was a, a great panel today. 535 00:32:14,405 --> 00:32:15,685 A lot of information we covered. 536 00:32:16,435 --> 00:32:20,965 What I would say is if you have any questions or suggestions for future 537 00:32:21,085 --> 00:32:21,646 podcasts, 538 00:32:21,646 --> 00:32:26,405 you can reach us at risk advisors@equifax.com and we all look forward to hearing 539 00:32:26,406 --> 00:32:27,205 from you and be well.