Q1 Portfolio Review: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

Show Notes

This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris “CJ” Fellingham are back for a Quarterly Review special, reflecting on how Q1 has played out across the portfolio, with standout strength from BlackRock World Mining Trust and broader gains across developed and emerging markets, while positions like India and the VanEck Crypto ETF lagged.

From oil shocks and bond volatility to crypto drawdowns and equity resilience, this episode dives deep into what’s really driving markets right now and where the opportunities may lie.

This Week’s Highlights:

🏦 Rate Expectations Whipsaw

Markets rapidly shift from pricing cuts to multiple hikes and back again, raising questions about whether expectations are disconnected from reality.

📉 Bonds Under Pressure

Short-duration gilts fall sharply as rate expectations surge, challenging their role as a “safe” stabiliser in portfolios.

⛽ Oil Driving the Narrative

Higher oil prices fuel inflation fears but the team argue markets may be overreacting to second-order effects on growth.

📊 Equities More Resilient Than Expected

Despite volatility, valuations (especially in the US) are becoming more attractive as multiples compress.

⚠️ Crypto Volatility Bites

The VanEck Crypto ETF drops sharply, highlighting the importance of position sizing and risk management in high-volatility assets.

🌍 Global Rotation & Positioning

Debate around US vs emerging markets, and whether shifting allocations actually adds value, or just reshuffles risk.

Portfolio Snapshot – Week 33:

• Weekly performance: -1.36%

• Total return since inception: +11.1%

Top Performers:

🥇 WisdomTree Copper ETF: +1.7%

🥈 iShares Core FTSE 100 ETF: +0.9%

🥉 Xtrackers DAX ETF: +0.5%

Underperformers:

📉 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain ETF: –11.6%

📉 iShares S&P 500 GBP Hedged ETF: –2.7%

📉 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETF: –2.4%

Key Takeaways:

✔️ Markets don’t always price reality, they price expectations

✔️ Bonds can fail during inflation-driven shocks

✔️ Volatility isn’t risk, mis-sized positions are

✔️ Sometimes doing nothing is the smartest move in uncertain markets

✔️ Quarterly reviews are critical, even for “passive” investors

Big Questions This Week:

• Are markets overreacting to rate expectations?

• Will central banks actually follow market pricing?

• Is private credit the next pressure point?

• Are US equities now becoming attractive again?

• Should investors be reducing risk—or leaning in?

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides

View the breakdown: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eMN0haj9HGUpRogpuD7NGhwxsC1tc6WM/view?usp=sharing

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