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Every morning, in the time it takes to drink a coffee, Teddy walks through yesterday's markets: US indices, the Nikkei, gold, oil and Malaysia. What moved, and which way the pressure leans. Market education, not financial advice.
This is my AI voice. The script comes from my market research system, and a person checks it before it goes out. It's education, not personal investment advice.
Good morning. Teddy here. It's Sunday, the first of November, and this is the weekly recap and week-ahead read.
Most people think nothing happens when the market is closed. You switch off on Friday night, you switch on again on Monday, and the world waits for you. This weekend, it did not wait.
So today we do three things. What happened over the weekend. How last week closed. And what to take note of this coming week.
Let's start with the weekend.
On Friday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard said four tankers caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz. One of them was a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of oil. It hit a naval mine. The strait has now been closed for two hundred and forty five days, according to the Straits Daily tracker.
On Saturday, President Trump said he had not decided on new strikes against Iran. When he was asked about action after the midterm elections, he said anything is possible.
Oil had already reacted on Friday. Brent traded between about one hundred and thirteen and one hundred and eighteen dollars a barrel. WTI settled at one hundred and four dollars and twelve cents, up just over two percent. Over the whole of October, Brent gained about thirteen point six percent.
So the pressure on oil is upward, and the impact is big. That is not a forecast. It is where the weight sits right now.
The second weekend story came from China. On Saturday, the official manufacturing index fell to forty nine point three. In September it was fifty point one. Anything under fifty means factories are shrinking, not growing. New export orders fell even more, to forty eight point seven.
That puts some downward pressure on Hong Kong stocks and on palm oil. Moderate for Hong Kong, low for palm oil.
And one thing is still pending. Seven OPEC plus countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, meet today. If they change output, oil will show it before Asia opens on Monday.
Now, last week.
For a few days, I've been saying the market has started treating Big Tech's AI spending as a bill, not a strength. I got that right. On Friday, Intel fell twenty eight point five eight percent. That was its worst day since nineteen seventy four, after a weak forecast for the last quarter of the year. Amazon showed a cash outflow of forty two point four billion dollars over the past twelve months, mostly tied to AI.
The Nasdaq fell two point nine percent on Friday, its worst day since June. For the week, it lost two percent. The S&P five hundred lost point six percent. The Dow lost point nine percent. The small caps of the Russell two thousand were the odd one out, up one point three percent for the week.
Closer to home, the KLCI ended the week up a quarter of a percent at one thousand six hundred and fifteen point six. But it lost just over two percent in October.
And here is the one that does not fit the story. Gold fell three and a half percent on Friday, to about three thousand eight hundred and eighty dollars. Yields were falling. Hormuz was burning. Normally that helps gold. But when stocks drop hard, people sell what they can sell. Sometimes that is gold.
Now, this week. Three things.
One. The midterm elections in the United States on Tuesday. Results start coming in on Wednesday morning, Malaysia time.
Two. Rate decisions. Australia's central bank on Tuesday at eleven thirty in the morning. The Bank of England on Thursday at eight at night. Both are expected to hike. The Fed held last week, but two officials wanted a hike, and markets price a December hike near eighty percent.
Three. The US jobs report on Friday at nine thirty at night, Malaysia time. Remember, US clocks moved back one hour today, so everything from America comes one hour later for us.
And in between, big earnings. Apple and Palantir on Tuesday morning, Malaysia time. AMD on Wednesday morning. Qualcomm on Thursday morning. For the Nasdaq, that pressure is two way, and the impact is big.
Three big events inside five days. That makes gaps at the open more likely. So check your candles. Check your direction. Check your momentum. Size your risk before Monday, not after.
A quiet, steady week is worth more than an exciting one. The quiet one pays for a good dinner with the family. The exciting one keeps you awake.
This is educational market commentary, not personal financial advice. No outcome is guaranteed. Markets carry risk of loss, so size your risk before any trade.
Survive first. See you tomorrow.