CropGPT - Cocoa

The weekly report on the global Cocoa market for week 49. Brought to you by CropGPT

Show Notes

This episode explores the current state of the global cocoa market.
  • Nigeria is projected to see an 11% decline in cocoa production for the 2025–26 season, bringing output down to 305,000 tons. This drop is attributed to ongoing structural challenges in cultivation and logistics. The contraction in Nigerian supply is especially notable given that United States cocoa stocks have reached an eight-month low of 1.685 million bags, further tightening the global supply outlook.
  • In the Ivory Coast and Ghana, favorable growing conditions have supported cocoa pod development, yet port arrivals in the Ivory Coast fell 2.1% year-over-year to 718,451 tons. This suggests possible production or logistical issues, tempering expectations of a surplus. While balanced rainfall has aided West African production overall, the corresponding risk of oversupply has placed downward pressure on prices.
  • Policy developments are also shaping the market. The European Parliament's delay in implementing the EU deforestation regulation has temporarily eased export pressures for West African producers. Meanwhile, proposed tariff adjustments in the United States on Brazilian cocoa may enhance Brazil’s competitiveness, altering global trade flows and pricing.
  • Despite tightening inventories, market sentiment remains cautious. This is reflected in increased net short positions in London cocoa futures, indicating that traders are bracing for potential demand-side weaknesses. These developments illustrate the complex interplay between production trends, policy shifts, and speculative activity in determining global cocoa market dynamics.

What is CropGPT - Cocoa?

Cocoa news, weather, pricing, production and predictions

Speaker 1:

Welcome to the weekly summary of the global cocoa market for 12/07/2025. For more information on any aspect of this report, please visit the CropGPT website for far more detailed reporting and analysis. Nigeria is experiencing a significant decline in cocoa production, with expectations of an 11% drop to 305,000 tons for the twenty twenty five-twenty six season. The Nigerian Cocoa Association attributes this decrease to persistent structural issues in cultivation and logistics. This reduced output may further tighten global supplies, especially since United States cocoa stocks have already fallen to an eight month low of 1,685,000 bags.

Speaker 1:

In Ivory Coast and Ghana, key players in West African cocoa production, market trends are largely dictated by their substantial output volumes. Despite experiencing ideal growing conditions that usually boost market sentiment through increased yield prospects, a slight year on year decline in port arrivals in the Ivory Coast, down 2.1% to 718,451 tons, suggests potential production or logistical challenges. These favorable conditions only momentarily ease concerns regarding global cocoa surplus limitations and demand fluctuations. Across West Africa, growing conditions remain efficient, with balanced rainfall supporting cocoa pod development. However, this favorable weather places downward pressure on prices due to potential supply increases.

Speaker 1:

The complex situation arising from good growth weather and declining shipments in the Ivory Coast demands careful observation of upcoming weather patterns and developments leading into the primary harvest seasons. In terms of policy, both the European Union and The United States are pivotal consumers, exerting wide reaching influence on the cocoa market. The European Parliament's delay of the European Union deforestation regulation provides temporary relief from compliance pressures, possibly enhancing short term availability from West African exports. Simultaneously, adjustments in United States tariffs on Brazilian cocoa imports might boost Brazil's market presence, impacting global price structures. Market sentiment remains cautious, despite support from decreasing global cocoa inventories.

Speaker 1:

This wary attitude is mirrored in speculative activities, with an increase in net short positions in London cocoa futures. This suggests that traders are hedging against potential market declines, driven by apprehensions over continued demand weakness despite tightening physical supply conditions. In summary, the unique challenges and dynamics facing each country are shaping the global cocoa market landscape. From production difficulties in Nigeria to policy adjustments in major consuming regions, these variables collectively influence trading conditions. These insights are essential for market stakeholders aiming to navigate the complexities of the cocoa industry.

Speaker 1:

Remember, our CropGPT site contains far more details and reports about the cocoa market, including crop health reports, twenty years of weather data, and even pricing data and earning call analysis. This podcast is just a few selected highlights for the week.