May 14 | Closing Market Report

- Ag Markets with Matt Bennett
- E15, SREs, the Farm Bill, the Senate, and Biofuels
- Sen. Tillis Riffs on Ag Policy & China
- Ag Weather with Mike Tannura

The May 14th Closing Market Report details declining agricultural commodity prices, legislative developments, and global crop weather. Grain markets closed significantly lower following the President's visit to China, which yielded no new trade agreement on soybean, a situation compounded by varying weather conditions affecting domestic crops. 

In Washington, the US House narrowly passed a bill permitting year-round E15 fuel sales, which now faces an uncertain future in the Senate alongside ongoing 2026 Farm Bill negotiations. Additionally, Senator Thom Tillis outlined national security concerns regarding Chinese investments in US farmland and meat processing facilities. 

Weather analysis indicates severe drought is threatening northern US spring wheat and varying precipitation is impacting the Corn Belt, while Europe receives beneficial rains and Brazil's second corn crop faces early dry season challenges.

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Creators and Guests

Host

Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸

University of Illinois

What is Closing Market Report?

Established 1985

The Closing Market Report airs weekdays at 2:06pm central on WILL AM580, Urbana. University of Illinois Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason hosts the program. Each day he asks commodity analysts about the trade in Chicago, delves deep into the global growing regions weather, and talks with ag economists, entomologists, agronomists, and others involved in agriculture at the farm and industry level.

website: willag.org
twitter: @commodityweek

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- Ag Markets with Matt Bennett
- E15, SREs, the Farm Bill, the Senate, and Biofuels
- Sen. Tillis Riffs on Ag Policy & China
- Ag Weather with Mike Tannura

Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is Thursday, May 14th. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason. The President has wrapped up his visit to China, and the agricultural trade did not take it well. We will discuss that today with Matt Bennett of agmarket.net. He is out of Windsor, Illinois. We'll take a look at yesterday's happenings in Washington, D.C. While the President was away, the House of Representatives managed to pass year-round E15 in a permanent bill. Then, we will turn our attention to the weather forecast. Mike Tannura will be here. He is with T-Storm Weather in Naperville, Illinois, and we will do all of that on this Thursday edition of the Closing Market Report.

announcer: Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.

Todd Gleason: July corn for the day settled at $4.67 1/2, down 13 1/4. December new crop, 11 3/4 lower at $4.91 1/4. July soybeans, $11.92 1/2, finished 36 1/2 cents lower. November, at $11.83 1/2, down 24 1/4 cents. Bean meal down $6 for the day. Bean oil 66 cents lower. Soft red winter wheat down 17 1/2 cents at $6.58 a bushel. July contract, July hard red at $7.05 1/4, down 19 1/2 cents. Live cattle futures were 32 1/2 cents lower at $246.15. Feeders at $3.58, down $2.92 1/2. Lean hogs at $104.55, a $1.32 1/2 lower. Crude oil at $97 a barrel, around 20 cents lower, and the natural gas for the day at $3.09, up 2 cents.

02:07 Ag Markets with Matt Bennett

Todd Gleason: Matt Bennett from agmarket.net now joins us. He's in the tractor cab planting corn this afternoon. Matt, how are you doing today?

Matt Bennett: I'm doing pretty good. We have a little bit of a window here, so we are hoping we can get stuff done and then we don't get a huge rain event. That's what we are hoping for, anyway.

Todd Gleason: You had a huge event actually at the CME Group in Chicago. Corn, wheat, soybeans all down hard today. This is on news, I suppose in part, out of China that the trade negotiations there didn't result in any new news. They didn't actually change old news either. Why did the market decide to move lower?

Matt Bennett: Essentially, a lot of folks were hopeful they would find a way to negotiate something better than the 25 million metric tons per year that they already negotiated. This morning, the Secretary said that deal is done, and we don't have anything to talk about with regards to soybeans. Clearly, the trade didn't like that news very much. There have been a lot of whispers lately that China might be shopping for US corn. I still think that could be the case because we have looked at it, and there is no doubt US corn works into China right now with where their domestic prices are. But certainly, having no sort of a trade deal wasn't something everyone wanted to hear. This is at a time when our markets probably needed to take a bit of a breather anyway because we've been a little bit overbought lately.

Todd Gleason: How concerned should producers be that we are in the middle of May and not ready yet to have dry conditions exactly in the Midwest that would cause a move up in this marketplace?

Matt Bennett: Ultimately, if you talk to ten different growers, you come up with ten different weather situations guys are dealing with. The bottom line right now is you have people too wet, people just getting in the field, and people that are too dry. I talked to folks in Iowa trying to replant. I talked to people in Iowa that have dry seed in dry dirt. A variety of things are going on. When I look at today's Chinese situation, there's no doubt in my mind that the corn market can actually function on its own. I think corn taking a breather isn't the end of the world. I'm not saying we will rally precipitously, but I don't think we will fall completely out of bed yet either because there are a lot of question marks about what this is going to look like if we cut a couple million acres.

Todd Gleason: On the soybean side, the administration didn't talk a lot about soybeans going into this. The trade was certainly expecting something more than what had already been agreed to. Will there be a building issue within the trade thinking the Chinese may simply decide not to fulfill what's already been agreed to for the fall?

Matt Bennett: I don't know that there was anything signed. That's been an issue I've had all along, there just hasn't been a formal agreement. That's what everyone is looking for. Without a formal agreement, it puts us all in a position where we just don't know what to think. Is there a chance they would renege on that? Certainly, with the geopolitical climate we are in right now, anything would be deemed possible. That is a concern, and there are a lot of traders nervous about what is around the corner.

Todd Gleason: What are you hearing about wheat in the western United States and how it's made it through the last couple of weeks?

Matt Bennett: It's a major problem. If you looked at that report this week, Texas had 70% abandonment. That's an incredible number. Clearly, there's going to be abandonment in Kansas as well. The growers we were talking to out there told us that just to get some of their corn planted and up, they had to use irrigation. It's extremely dry. They have a couple of chances for showers, but they don't know if it's going to be enough to flip the script here. They have a lot of issues to deal with, and that wheat crop isn't going to be worth much.

Todd Gleason: From Brazil this morning, Conab released its updated numbers for both corn and soybean figures. Production up in both. What did you make of those figures?

Matt Bennett: To me, when I look at what's going on there, the NDVI images still look pretty good. There are parts around Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul that are excessively dry right now. The monsoon is over, they've entered into the dry season. I am not totally sure you are going to be looking at as big a crop as everyone is saying right now. Definitely a big crop, don't get me wrong, but I think that crop has a chance of moving lower from here.

Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Matt. I appreciate it. Stay safe in the field.

Matt Bennett: Thanks, Todd.

08:34 E15, SREs, the Farm Bill, the Senate, and Biofuels

Todd Gleason: The major priority for corn growers across the nation is one step closer to reality. The House has now passed legislation allowing year-round nationwide sales of E15 fuel. Though it was a close vote at 218 to 203, the National Corn Growers Association board member Jan tenBensel, a farmer from Nebraska, says finally clearing the House feels a bit different this time around.

Jan tenBensel: I feel pretty good. It's a great relief to get through the House. This is going to be a win-win for everybody because ethanol checks all the boxes.

Todd Gleason: TenBensel says high fuel prices helped drive that conversation. As gas prices rise, E15 has a much lower price point in many cases. He also says ethanol supporters have spent years battling outdated claims about the fuel.

Jan tenBensel: To tell the truth and get our message out, our opposition has been throwing around and digging up old myths and 40-year-old information that is totally out of date and just very disappointing. It makes it easy to counter-argue.

Todd Gleason: NCGA has been working for more than a decade on year-round E15. TenBensel says the job isn't done. The attention now turns to the Senate, and if passed, getting the bill to the President's desk. That will be a difficult task. Recall, the House passed year-round E15 narrowly, 218 to 203, with 90 Republicans and 113 Democrats voting no on the bill. The House Republicans who voted yes came to the year-round E15 debate still bruised by an ugly fight over breaks for small and mid-sized refineries that nearly tanked the recently passed farm bill. E15 was separated out from it, and now both are in the hands of the upper chamber. It is certainly not clear either bill will have an easy route forward in the Senate. For instance, Jim McGovern, a House Democrat from Massachusetts, was pretty clear about the chances for the E15 bill.

Jim McGovern: Once this gets separated from the farm bill, lots of luck. Lots of luck. And then what do you say to your farmers, and what do you say to the people who you promised that you would fix this? The bottom line is we all know what's going on here. The Senate is not going to take up an independent E15 bill.

Todd Gleason: That is exactly the same conclusion Renewable Fuels CEO Geoff Cooper drew when asked at an earlier E15 press event this week. Cooper said the answer would be to attach year-round E15 to another bill, possibly a supplemental on Iran war spending.

Speaking of the Senate, it is preparing to take up the House bill. That's the farm bill. Senate lawmakers are beginning to work on the next phase of the 2026 farm bill after the House approved its version last week, setting up negotiations over commodity programs, conservation funding, and livestock regulations. Farm groups are closely watching Senate discussions involving crop insurance reference prices and livestock provisions tied to California's Proposition 12 animal housing law.

House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn "GT" Thompson said lawmakers hope to move quickly on final negotiations, though differences remain between Republicans and Democrats over nutrition spending and climate-related conservation programs. Agricultural economists say the bill comes as farmers continue facing lower commodity prices and elevated input costs. Commodity groups warn delays in passing a final package could create uncertainty for producers making planting and marketing decisions this year.

15:52 Sen. Tillis Riffs on Ag Policy & China

Todd Gleason: North Carolina GOP Senator Thom Tillis has been at the Brookings Institution, where he was speaking at a forum and talking about what his farmers are concerned about as it relates to China. Part of it is intrusion into US agriculture.

Thom Tillis: In my state, it has a lot to do with investment in land and agriculture. Some of the news reports that have proven to be true, and in other cases they weren't, about China's interest in farmland in and around our military facilities.

Todd Gleason: And, the retiring Republican Senator Tillis says it's not just farmland.

Thom Tillis: They bought up a lot of meat processing facilities. China's Smithfield plant in North Carolina processes some 32,000 pigs daily. Tillis, who sits on several committees dealing with trade and international security, says the results of a China trade war for ag were foreseeable. They're going to ramp down soybean pipelines. They did, because they do it every time we get into these skirmishes. Agriculture tends to have a disproportionate immediate impact.

Todd Gleason: The outgoing Senator says China has taken some of the edge off of that with its multi-year soybean buying spree, but other tariff spats remain, and the United States only pulled back after China imposed and then relaxed rare earth export controls, another possible discussion topic in Beijing.

17:44 Ag Weather with Mike Tannura

Todd Gleason: Let's turn our attention now to the growing regions across the planet and the weather and climate in each of them. We're joined by Mike Tannura. He is the president and CEO at T-Storm Weather in Naperville, Illinois. Mike, thanks for being with us today. I'd like to take up some longer-term conditions. Starting in the United States, there is a long-term drought that has taken hold in many places. Can you tell me about the driest areas and what you believe to be happening in each of them?

Mike Tannura: It's still pretty dry out in the plains. Our big concern for that region is that spring wheat in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana are all getting pretty dry. 100% of this crop was drier than normal over the last 14 days, and 91% over the last 30 days. We can look back in our records going back to 2012, and there are very few days that ever saw this kind of dryness. That just tells us that we need rain. Now, there is rain ahead for this area starting up on Saturday and Sunday. A major cold front is going to sweep across the United States, and it will initially trigger showers and storms in that area. We think the conditions are going to improve a little bit as we head over the next five days. Our concern for spring wheat is that planting is a little bit behind schedule, which is odd given how dry it is. That's probably due to the cold temperatures they've had over most of April and the first half of May. When we add this rain to it, although soil moisture will improve, it might not be the best thing for planting that spring wheat crop.

Todd Gleason: From the spring wheat and those far northwestern areas, a move to the southeast and across the corn belt. Let me know what conditions are there and what you expect over the next week or so.

Mike Tannura: It's dried out a lot over the last couple of weeks across the corn belt. About 85% of US corn and soybean production were drier than normal over the last two weeks, so that just shows you that a pretty major planting window is currently open. As we move over the next few days, it's going to start to storm a little bit in the corn belt. A warm front is going to move through tomorrow and Saturday, and that will trigger some thunderstorms in varying areas of the corn belt. We are not looking for heavy totals, but it might knock a few producers out as we move into the weekend. As we get into next week, that's where we're going to see quite a bit of rain. That front we talked about for the northern plains will move all the way across the corn belt over the first half of next week. That should produce anywhere from one to two inches across a big chunk of the corn belt. Conditions will improve from a soil moisture standpoint next week, but that will tend to slow down planting a little bit. Kind of a mixed bag there too, where we kind of want the rain to improve soil moisture, but we don't want it so we can keep on racing forward with corn and soybean planting.

Todd Gleason: Let's stay with springtime in the Northern Hemisphere but move to a different continent. What do you see across Europe?

Mike Tannura: They're seeing some nice rains, and that's going to continue for a while. We have the main jet stream aligned right across Europe and then extending into Ukraine and Russia. That's going to continue to bring some nice rains to the wheat crop out there. While we've been dealing with winter wheat problems in the United States for a while, it's kind of the opposite out in that area where they've been seeing some rains over the course of the winter and the spring, and they're going to see some more ahead over the next week or two.

Todd Gleason: There have been some areas in Brazil where the second crop, or safrinha corn, is in the process of mid-season that have been problematic. Can you tell me about those areas and maybe some of the places that are really good, too?

Mike Tannura: The problem area is in and near the states of Goiás, Minas Gerais, and Bahia. That's pretty much the northeastern growing region. We would argue that basically, the dry season started one to three weeks early for about half of the Brazil second corn crop. That's not ideal for them, but you need to keep in mind they had some pretty fantastic rains leading into this period. It's not like we were dry all season. We are dry here in the latter half of it. The rest of that crop though has been seeing some pretty good rains, and there's some more rain ahead. The Brazil corn story is a little bit of a mixed bag with essentially half of the crop drying out too early, but the other half doing okay. In the end, that's usually how you end up with a normal crop, not a great crop, not a terrible crop. We'll have to watch the yield reports and see how that pans out.

Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Mike. We'll talk with you again next week.

Mike Tannura: Sounds great, Todd.