The DeFi Report

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $65K fair value and whether last week’s capitulation was the long-awaited fat pitch. They compare this cycle to 2018 and 2022, explain why the selloff has accelerated faster than past bears, and unpack what Mike means when he says spot markets are “tangled.” With 40% of supply held above $78K and heavy dip buying at $84K, they explore the risk of a relief rally into resistance and the potential for one more leg down toward the 200-week moving average. They close with details on TDR’s first deployment of the bear market, deep value targets, and how they’re scaling into positions while keeping dry powder ready.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
1:09 Market Sentiment Shifts
3:28 Comparing Past Cycles
6:13 First Purchase of the Bear Market
7:49 Forced Selling & Market Reactions
12:50 Analyzing Market Structure
17:29 Understanding New Market Psychology
21:52 TDR's Strategic Allocation
27:47 Updates on the Watch List
31:28 Triggers for Altcoin Deployments
32:49 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

What is The DeFi Report?

Our weekly show is hosted by Michael Nadeau (The DeFi Report) and Ryan Sean Adams (Bankless). Each week, we discuss how we approach managing our own portfolio and the data, research, and analytical frameworks that inform those decisions — for educational and informational purposes.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[0:09] It is Wednesday, February 11th. Welcome to the report. Where do we go from here? That is the title of today's report. A lot of things happened between this week and last week. Bitcoin spiked under the fair market value target price Mike has been talking about of 65k. What happened? And was this the fat pitch you were looking for, Mike? Also, want to talk about the potential of another leg down, whether you expect that to happen or not, how this compares to previous cycles, and use this term in today's report quite a lot. Spot markets are tangled up, you said. I want to get into that word tangled and what that means. And of course, for listeners, make sure you guys stay tuned to the end because we got two goodies for you. The first is some updates on the TDR watch list. These are the assets that Mike is tracking. There's 30 of them. Fair market value for those going to the bear market.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[1:06] Which ones is he going to purchase? What are the prices around that? And also, last week, which is pretty exciting for me, when I got this email.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[1:14] TDR made its first purchase of the bear market. I got this portfolio alert that the portfolio had changed, said something in the title around a fat pitch. Okay, so we're starting in a fat pitch territory. How much dry powder did TDR deploy? At what price? and is there another target a deep value target we'll talk about all that and more mike it is feeling kind of bad out there from a sentiment perspective i was seeing a bunch of crypto people say that this actually feels worse than 2022 post ftx what do you think do you think this feels worse i know you're there.

Michael Nadeau:
[1:53] I think the current market always feels like the most extreme to people. From my perspective, you know, I think probably in 21, everyone was saying that was the worst fair market as well, or 22. So from my perspective, this cycle has played out remarkably similar to past cycles, in my view. And we can kind of get into a little bit of that today. But to me, you know, things have sped up certainly from where we were even just last week. But it is pretty remarkable just the behavioral patterns and the market structure and just kind of everything that we go through to study cycles has been playing out very similar to what we've seen in the past.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[2:35] I love that your answer to these questions is so often when someone says this time it's different, your answer is like, no, it's not. Go look at the data. No, it's not quite that different. And I think I agree with you. And I do think there's some recency bias playing in. But we'll get into the data around some of this. First, we've got to look at the carnage. So between last report and this report, we are down 10% on Bitcoin, okay? And that wasn't even the steepest price drop. We saw a Bitcoin price under $63K. Ether as well, similar story, down 10%. Right now, the time of recording, $1,930. $30, it spiked down to a price of $1,824. Okay, that was almost the depths, I suppose, of 2025 when we had some of the tariff scare in April. Yeah.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[3:22] Let's talk about how this compares, these prices compare maybe to previous cycles. So you start off the report comparing Bitcoin and what's trading 128 days ago versus now and how that compared to previous cycles. Talk about this.

Michael Nadeau:
[3:42] Yeah, so, you know, it's been interesting. I think the sort of base case here for this bear market was that maybe it'd be a little a little like less extreme than we've seen in the past. You know, we didn't peak on euphoria back in October. And so I think it was reasonable to kind of think that, you know, things would sort of just chop around and kind of slowly come down. That all changed, you know, over the last few weeks and just getting an idea of like, where are we at relative to that? So we're down about 45%, you know, at the same stage of the past cycle, we were down 40, 41%. So we're actually down more now. We've accelerated into a bear market faster than the last cycle.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[4:23] Wow. Faster than FTX.

Michael Nadeau:
[4:26] Faster than FTX, or at least this part relative to the last cycle. So FTX hadn't happened yet relative to where we are today in the last cycle. So maybe there's like the one final leg down we can get into.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[4:39] Ah, I see. I see. So you're comparing, you're saying this is a comparison of the number of days from sort of the quote-unquote top, and we are 128 days from the October 6, 2025 peak, and 128 days from the March 2021 cycle, which happened in March 16, 2022, we were down 41% at that time. And the worst was yet to come.

Michael Nadeau:
[5:09] Exactly. So, you know, kind of getting a feel for where we're out there. So, you know, that's that looks pretty similar in terms of just the timing of in the percentage decline we've seen so far. What's been different so far is just like I mentioned, the acceleration. So it took us the acceleration to the fair value zone, I should say. And so when we look at this, it took much longer in the past cycles to get down to, you know, what we call fair value. And how we're measuring that is really, you know, a confluence of a number of KPIs we look at. But the 200-week moving average, we're looking at realized price. There's a number of metrics that we factor into this. But we got there much quicker, you know, 124 days or so to get there. That was where we came in last week. and it was about 218 days in the past cycle to get to kind of that fair value mark and it was even longer back in 17.

Michael Nadeau:
[6:09] So kind of interesting that we just, we went there fast, was not expecting this. We got a fat pitch from the market faster than we were expecting.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[6:17] Well, I was laughing even last week when we recorded our weekly episode, I was saying, well, you know, at some point, Mike, I expect to get that fat pitch email from you And I was thinking like weeks, months from now. And then it was literally the next day I got the email and I was like, oh, my God, what is happening here?

Michael Nadeau:
[6:35] Yeah, things moved very quickly last week. We record these on Wednesdays and we publish on Wednesdays. And I think it was what we were at, 78K or so last week. And when I woke up on Thursday morning, price was down. But, you know, it didn't look that crazy. And then it was just kind of one of those days where every time you you kind of look at what's going on in the markets, you know, Bitcoin is just down farther with really no no bounces. And so that started to kind of catch my attention. It got to the point where you're kind of just like watching the market and like just it just keeps going down. And that was like started to become clear we're in a we're in like a capitulation, you know, a moment here. There's got to be there's some forced seller in the market, some large forced seller in the market. And so we went in and made our first purchase of the bear market. So we consider that a fat pitch. You know, we got into like the 65K, you know, target zone that we we've been looking for. And then the conditions also, you know, lined up with with forced selling. We always want to buy, you know, for selling, you know, in the market.

Michael Nadeau:
[7:46] So I'm really happy to get a nice, you know, early allocation.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[7:50] Yeah, I want to get into the mechanics and what triggered that decision and how much you actually deployed. But on this kind of forced selling moment, that is what it felt like. And that makes sense after a three hours capital in 2021 or an FTX, you know, later that year in 2022. Sorry, actually, three hours capital also happened in 2022. to. There wasn't anything visible like that. We also didn't get the euphoria that we had in previous cycles. There's a lot of rumors that something blew up, maybe something in Hong Kong around, you know, Tradify and maybe playing some kind of, you know, perps or derivatives and even the silver and gold market commodities. These are all rumors flying around. So far, no body has risen to the surface. Have you heard anything that confirms that this looked like a blow-up up to you of some sort?

Michael Nadeau:
[8:41] I'm kind of seeing the same stuff, you know, floating around crypto Twitter. There's been a few people that have tried to kind of deep dive into what happened, but, and the market's always, you know, interested in understanding this. And a lot of times people think there's some sort of manipulation or something that happened. We don't know, you know, it's kind of my, you know, the takeaway here is that we don't know for sure. We probably will find out at some point, like who it was. But I don't really, I don't spend a lot of time trying And, uh, get into the mechanics of like really what caused it. It's more for me, it's more about, you know, understanding the market structure and getting an idea of like when the probabilities are tilting, you know, in the direction for something like this to happen. I think one of the reasons these cycles tend to rhyme is because of the kind of human behavior elements that play into these markets. And, you know, every cycle changes, like the conditions of the cycle change, the assets are always changing. The prices are always changing, but like the things that don't change are kind of human behavior and fear and greed and complacency, all these things. And so, you know, we want to be prepared for like what we think are setups that can lead to that. And historically, we've seen these kind of violent unwinds during bear market periods.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[9:58] Okay. So you mentioned we're 128 days after the peak. Okay. And we were down 45%, we're down 45%. Last cycle, 2022, at that same stage, we were down 41%. The cycle before that was April 24th, 2018, we were down 49%. So we're somewhere in between kind of the previous cycle and the cycle before that. But let's compare maybe this to the moving average long-term trend lines. What are you showing in this chart? And maybe you could describe these lines for us quickly, just to orient us, Mike, to this chart and what it's showing. And then tell us where you think we are in this cycle relative to maybe previous cycles.

Michael Nadeau:
[10:51] Yeah. So we've got a chart here that's got the Bitcoin price chart. And then we've also got the 200 week moving average and the 50 week moving average. And this is where you can kind of see the similarities to what's been playing out here. So when we look back at the last cycle there in early 2022, we sort of had the market breakdown, you know, very similar to what we've seen here in this cycle. And in the last cycle, we made a retracement move after that initial breakdown. And we actually got back to the 50-week moving average, which kind of serves as the bull market support. So we went back there and then that's when the bear market really accelerated. That was when right after that was when you had Terra Luna and that led to the subsequent bankruptcies at a lot of the C5 companies. So you had like a period from April of 22 to about June or so where things got pretty violent. And we went all the way down to the 200 week moving average.

Michael Nadeau:
[11:54] And we, I believe like the same thing is basically playing out today. You can kind of see the chart actually looks very similar. And I kind of think we're like at that spot, like in terms of price action, where we are right now, I think is very similar to like June of 2022, like after the Terra Luna unwind and then after some of those subsequent bankruptcies where we actually went down to like fair value zone at that time. And we did as well this cycle. So that 65K number is to me very similar to 20K Bitcoin in the last bear market. We did end up coming all the way down to like 16.5K Bitcoin in the last bear market. So we may see another move down. We may actually, we haven't touched the 200 week longer term moving average

Michael Nadeau:
[12:48] just yet, but historically we do touch that. So So we'll kind of see where we go from here, but it's very similar, you know, to what we saw last cycle and, you know, that we just got to that fair value zone much, much quicker in this cycle.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[13:01] So if that plays out, if you're correct about this relative to the last cycle, we're somewhere in kind of that time range that you described, what does this blue line Bitcoin price, what does that, So do you anticipate then it kind of like could look really similar to the previous where it hits the 200 week moving average and then maybe dips below it and that could persist for some time and square that with the actual prices that this would mean?

Michael Nadeau:
[13:35] We've seen so much, you know, downside price action. And it looks like there was, you know, a decent amount of buyers at that 60K level. And we bounced off that. There was actually quite a bit of short shorts at that level. So, which is, you know, the short, people basically saw that we were going down and you had a bunch of people rush into the market and try to, you know, capture that momentum and put on shorts. There was enough buyers at 60K that it flipped that in the other direction. So the shorts got washed out. There was about 128 million of short liquidations last week as well. So, you know, that's kind of the, I guess, the zone of like sort of resistance on the downside is like 60K or so right now.

Michael Nadeau:
[14:19] What's interesting, maybe if we get into like the market structure of kind of where we're at here, You know, we've seen like the leverage and stuff mostly come off, you know, futures open interest is down, funding rates have come off significantly. But we're mostly focused on the spot markets and market structure there. And that's where, you know, when we went risk off, you know, back in October, I would say like not that many market participants were thinking that it was like we were heading into a bear market at that time. And I think now you fast forward about four months later, I would say just about everyone would agree that we're in a bear market. So what does that mean?

Michael Nadeau:
[15:06] Psychologically, that means something to me, right? That has happened and the psychology of the market has shifted. And now I want to understand what is the positioning on chain for this new sort of psychological regime that we're in. And the reason I use the word tangled in this report is that you still have 40% of the supply of Bitcoin That is held at what we believe is a cost basis over 78K. This is some data from Glassnode. So you have sort of a lopsided market structure where both basically all the new money that came in over the last year or so is underwater or is sitting on some unrealized losses there. And so the risk there is that, you know, we get these retracement moves. I think a lot of these people, now they know we're in a bear market, they're more likely to be hitting the sell button potentially to try to recapture some of their losses.

Michael Nadeau:
[16:08] And so that's kind of, I think, some of the risk here. The other thing is we've been looking at some glass node data and trying to figure out where were the dip buyers, the people who didn't think we were in a bear market for the last, you know, four months or so, where were they buying? And like there's clear evidence that it was at the 80 in the 84 K range. So you have 2.5% of the supply that was buying a dip at 84 K. And so are those people going to try to exit if we get a retracement move or are they just, you know, just deploying more? They have plenty of plenty of ammunition and they're just they're going to keep deploying. But that's the sort of structure, you know, of the market and why I expect any retracement moves to be lower highs from here. And that we would just eventually kind of come back down and I think probably hit that 200 week moving average at some point. That's kind of my base case. We don't know for sure. But. The way we do a lot of this analysis is understand market structure. And then there is, and I think people that are familiar with our research, we sort of weave in like the psychology and the human behavior and all of these things that we think factor into these markets.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[17:24] What's incredible and unique, of course, about crypto is that you actually have

Ryan Sean Adams:
[17:27] access to this psychology data, right? So what you're effectively saying is we have a new set of low conviction holders in the 70K range. And you said the cost basis of that supply is about $78K. And you laid out a scenario here where you could see Bitcoin bounce again to the upper $60K to $70K range, possibly back to the low $80s. And then that could be when the next moment of truth comes for those newer, lower conviction type buyers. And then you said, we'll find out whether the people who are buying $84,000 Bitcoin are going to get out of the market. That's the moment of truth. And the same goes for the buyers of the 40% of the supply of a cost basis above that $78,000 range. Uh, and so it could, we could bounce up, but that moment of truth will tell us the direction that this will go. And you think the market structure points to, you know, it bounces up there possibly, but then goes lower. Um, you have this saying, you said, as the saying goes, bear markets have a way of making fools of both bulls and bears. Actually, I hadn't heard that expression before. What does this mean? Yeah.

Michael Nadeau:
[18:51] So, and this is even to make the market structure even maybe a little bit more complicated is you also have, I think, people that were buying the capitulation last week. And there's a chance that like if the price starts, if we get a retracement move, there's a chance that some of those buyers will chase that move because they may think that, oh no, we already bottomed and I need to chase that. So I think that would probably be a false, you know, kind of move to the upside. So you have a market structure where you potentially have both sides kind of getting chopped up here. And I think that is, you know, what could potentially, you know, just lead to the choppy sideways action here. I'm not expecting like as much volatility as, you know, we've seen here. But we have historically, like when we do finally go to the macro low, at least historically, there has been like, you know, typically like somewhat of a, you know, move that gets you there. Last cycle, it was FTX. In the prior cycle, Bitcoin dropped, you know, from like 6K to 4K or so pretty quickly at the end. And then that was it.

Michael Nadeau:
[20:02] And so, you know, we'll see if it's just kind of like a choppy, you know, sort of grind down or if there is some another event similar to last week that gets us there. But yeah, I just think the market structure is in a weird, weird spot here. And I'm kind of like just sort of, kind of observing for the moment. But we're also not very far off of fair value zones here.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[20:26] That's right. But you don't think that that was it, that that was the event, that that was the big leg down, the kind of the final capitulation moment. I mean, we did get below 63K and your fair market value was, you know, 65K or so. But because of this market structure, you don't think that was it.

Michael Nadeau:
[20:48] It could have been it's it's definitely possible that it could have been but bear when you get to like the bottom of the bear market it's usually like a there's usually like a three to five month period where things just kind of like volumes really fall off and you know interest in the space comes down crypto twitter gets a little bit quieter and you know it's not like this it's it just gets it just gets quieter the apathy phase really yeah yeah we haven't really gotten to that I'm expecting that and that's why I'm not super like urgently trying to allocate and all that right now we're sort of you know we got a good allocation last week and we're at a place where we're we're observing a little bit more

Ryan Sean Adams:
[21:29] Okay and that's why this market is tricky playing this market is tricky and that's how it can make fools if you of you if you're bullish or if you're you're bearish too early in this, let's actually get to the purchase that you made this week so tdr pro members received a email in their portfolio saying,

Ryan Sean Adams:
[21:49] hey, it's the first fat pitch. It's risk on mode. And you did deploy some capital into this market. Talk about what you did and why. And I have a ton of questions about this strategy, actually, because there's one world where you could just empty everything. You did get below the 65K range. So why not deploy everything right now because you're at your fair market value target. You did something differently. Tell us what you did.

Michael Nadeau:
[22:20] Yeah, so we went down to fair value last week. And the reason we allocated was we hit the targets we were looking for. And also the conditions in the market warranted that when you see forced selling, when you see capitulation. And so we allocated about 20% of what we plan to allocate into our Bitcoin sleeve. And that represents about 14% of the total like cash position that we had. And yeah, why not just like deploy the whole thing? Because, you know, you don't know what's gonna happen is kind of how I think of this. And because, you know, I'm sort of my base case is that when you go to like the macro low, there's plenty of time. You know, you had, you know, like I said, three to five months or so in the past few cycles to get into some pretty good positions. That's kind of how we do we typically will scale into things and we're pretty patient in that process

Michael Nadeau:
[23:20] We expect Bitcoin, or at least our base case is that Bitcoin will find its low and then altcoins generally will find their lows around the same time, maybe a little bit after. It's not a golden rule. Like ETH bottomed actually significantly before Bitcoin did in the last cycle. I think that a lot of that had to do with a lot of the burn tokens at the time, which I think helped support ETH price at the time. Um but yeah you know we don't we never want to just kind of jump in and buy all at once it's more of a scaling in process you know if if i think that the deep value targets would be you know anywhere below 60k or so and i think like probably like my the kind of very low end would be about you know 50k or so but if you're buying at those levels like it can be you know significant in terms of um you know your positioning and especially if you're holding that through a cycle.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[24:14] So I want to understand that rule once again, and maybe I can repeat it back to you because I think a lot of folks have a problem during these spikes down with deploying and how much to deploy and with courage. And I think you said your pattern for this is, first of all, you have months of research, lots of analysis, getting to that price target of saying, hey, Bitcoin fair market value for the bear is 65K and below, and that's a good entry price. So that's a very sober analysis that's taken months. And then in combination with that, you look at more immediate catalyst market conditions of things that really feel like capitulation spikes, where your stomach is churning and like, oh my God, something's happening, looks like someone's getting blown out. And so you saw both of those conditions were met. And then your third rule is don't deploy all at once as well. So.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[25:10] If you execute on all three of those rules, that is kind of the TDR, Michael Nadeau way to play these markets. And so I guess the analysis is this won't be the last fat pitch opportunity for investors to deploy into this market. But are you still at like 65K price of Bitcoin or have you now moved down, right? Because now you've got these other targets that are the deep value range that you just gave, which is, you know, 50K Bitcoin to 60K Bitcoin. How do you avoid being in a position where kind of doing too much to really time the bottom and you might miss out on some of these purchases in the future?

Michael Nadeau:
[25:53] I think that, you know, the way I think of this is we want to get into a pretty good position. And once you have that move down, like we had last week, you know, we can start to process, you know, basically what happened in the market. What's the new market structure? You know, do we need to update any of these price levels that we think we're going to? We don't really think that we need to make any updates just yet. We think there will be plenty of, you know, buying prices. At those lower, you know, 60K levels again. So, we go back down there, we'll be looking to allocate more. And, you know, I think you just want to have some dry powder in case there's a larger, like, real deep value opportunity that comes. So, I think, you know, that's kind of the idea is, like, don't deploy everything. Keep some capital on the sidelines for opportunities that could come. And, you know, we do all this research on the watch list as well so that we're ready to deploy into those assets. Some of those are crypto equities. You know, they have slightly different, you know, correlations with on-chain assets. And so the timing of when we, you know, deploy into some of these altcoins and stuff will be different from when we, you know, deploy into Bitcoin. coin.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[27:09] Yeah. And I don't want to discount the size of the deployment because you actually did deploy the size and it looked like you kind of caught a bottom or something close to it. So, you know, I guess good trade. I know you're not a short term trader, but that turned out to be a good trade. But we went from last week where you were 80% cash and 20% crypto assets to now 66% cash. And let's see, it was something over 30% or the remainder of that, you know, 35% crypto assets. So that is definitely a switch and you have deployed first into Bitcoin at 27%.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[27:41] Let's, as we draw this to a close mic, maybe let's talk briefly about the watch list. So we started talking about the watch list a few weeks ago, and this is a list of crypto assets that you have not yet brought into the portfolio, but as the title implies, you're watching these crypto assets and you have price targets for each of these. There's 30 assets on the list. You're looking to get 10 or so, five to 10 maybe, inside of the TDR portfolio sometime during this bear market, presumably sometime during 2026. Did you do an update to the watch list at all as prices fell? Did you readjust your price targets or how do you think about the watch list?

Michael Nadeau:
[28:26] Yeah, we went through the process of looking at everything and we added a few columns to this for people. So we added this column just so people can understand like what is the actual drawdown of the target range that we're looking at. And you can see it's very deep. You know, most of these are expecting, you know, 80 to 90% plus, you know, declines. And a lot of them are entering those zones. So there's actually eight assets out of the 30 here that are currently within, you know, the fair value range that we came up with. But those fair value ranges, nobody can predict. I'm not trying to actually predict where we think things are going to bottom. We want to have an idea of where we think they're going. A lot of that, how we get there is historical analysis. We factor in newer stuff. Typically, we'll get a stronger sell-off in a bear market. We're looking at token economics and fundamentals and things like that to try to come up with where we think these things could bottom.

Michael Nadeau:
[29:29] But yeah, no updates to the prices, but we're looking at it. We may make a few changes just on a few of the assets. What I'm noticing is that our targets might be a little high on Some of the alternative L1s, you know, so ETH was in the fair value range when we put this together yesterday. It's now down below it.

Michael Nadeau:
[29:53] Sol was in the fair value range. It looks like it's probably going to go down below it. But so, you know, we'll see if there's more weakness from Bitcoin. We do expect that like the altcoin market will also show further weakness. And the other thing, you know, we're just trying to think a little bit about is just, you know, the performance of altcoins in the last few cycles, the timing of that, you know, when we want to, you know, be fully into these positions. And what was interesting is like almost every altcoin that like significantly outperformed in the last cycle did so very early, very early in the cycle. It was almost like two cycles. Like the altcoin market was really early. Most of them peaked like in early in 2024, some of them early 2025, which is kind of interesting to me. So you got to be on your toes, you know, for sure. And we do all this work. We publish these watchlist reports. We have data dashboards supporting a lot of this because we just want to be ready, right? This is all about preparation and then essentially executing when we see the opportunities.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[31:02] So definitely still in the research and preparation phase for all of these assets. I know your plan broadly is to deploy first to Bitcoin, but I think you just made the counterpoint that you can't just treat this as a nice sequential process where first you get through all of your Bitcoin deployments and then you're done and then a nice alt season comes to you and then you deploy

Ryan Sean Adams:
[31:26] there. You have to do some of this in sequence. Like, what are the triggers that would make you start to deploy against this watch list and maybe bring some non-Bitcoin assets into the portfolio?

Michael Nadeau:
[31:39] Yeah, mostly looking for confidence that Bitcoin has hit its macro low. And the reason that I think that's important is these assets, they can be down 80% and a lot of them already are. But if you look at sort of like how far we are from our fair value targets, in some cases, that can still be even when you're down 80% to get to like the 90% zone, that can be a 30% to 50% move. And so that's why we don't want to try to have some view on when every one of these is going to bottom. I think that's really, really hard to do. So we focus on Bitcoin and we want to understand when Bitcoin is hitting its macro low or when we think the probabilities of that are low. In our favor and then start to look at some of these altcoins and the ones that are really washed out that we think, you know, have upside potential. It's really just about like finding a zone where we're confident that the probabilities of like outperformance are in our favor. And that's really all. We're just trying to put ourselves in a position where

Michael Nadeau:
[32:45] we think we're going to have, you know, a tailwind behind us instead of a headwind.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[32:50] Oh, Mike, this is, I was really excited to talk to you this week, especially after Thursday's events. And I just want to congratulate you. I mean, you have been calling this cycle very well. I don't want to jinx it. I don't want to jinx you, but it's going really well so far. If you have paid attention to TDR and Mike's research and what he's been doing for the past year or so, I think you will have done well if you followed some of these items. Of course, got to say, none of this has been financial advice, but you can get access to the watch list that we talked about alerts when Mike's portfolio has changed. That came in handy for me last week, nibbling around the edges when Bitcoin dropped below the fair market value of the DeFi report. That's available at the TDR Pro, a link in the show notes. If you are a listener as well, you can make sure you get these episodes on a regular basis. YouTube, Spotify, you can pick them up there. There's also the DeFi Report website. And do us a favor. If this work has added some value into your crypto investing journey, go give us a five-star review.

Ryan Sean Adams:
[33:59] Subscribe on YouTube, of course, and then give us a five-star review on Spotify or Apple or whether you consume podcasts so we can propagate this to many other crypto investors. Of course, we will be back next week. We are on the investor journey alongside of you. Until next time, stay curious.