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Hi, I'm Ella Gurfinkel, your host of the AskElla Show and senior loan officer at Fairway Independent Mortgage. On my podcast, I cut through the noise to bring you honest conversations about real estate, mortgages, and financial planning.
I interview industry experts to tackle everything from homebuying basics to complex topics like reverse mortgages, trusts, and market trends. With decades of experience, I'm passionate about dispelling myths and providing clear, actionable advice.
Whether you're buying your first home, refinancing, or planning for retirement, I'm here to help you make informed decisions. Join me for straightforward talk about real estate and beyond!
The biggest mortgage collapse in [music] US history just got worse. That is not a headline from 2008. That's [music] not fear porn from some random finance bro on the internet. That is right now, 2026. And it just got worse. If you own a home, are buying a home, or are thinking about buying a home, you need to hear this because what's happening right now is going to affect your financial life whether you pay attention to it or not. I am Ella Gerfinkle, senior loan officer. 30 years in this business, over 2,000 families served. I've lived through 2008. I've [music] seen every cycle this market has thrown at us. And I'm here to tell you what's actually happening. Not what the headlines want you to panic about [music] and not what the optimists want you to ignore. The real picture right now.
Let me paint you a picture [music] of where we are. Midyear 2026. Refinance demand just dropped [music] 18%. Lowest level since 2025. Purchase applications are down too, minus.4% week overw week. [music] And these aren't just bad weeks. We're talking about mortgage demand figures that are among the lowest we've seen [music] in 30 to 40 years. Let me say it again. 30 to 40 years. For context, pending home sales, which is basically a realtime indicator of buyer interest, [music] are sitting at historic lows. And yes, there was a little blip of hope in April and early May. Pending sales ticked [music] up. People started saying the market is recovering and then the data [music] came back and it was ugly. The K Schiller home price index year-over-year growth [music] slowed to 7%. One of the lowest readings since the last housing downturn. Seattle is down [music] 2.5% year-over-year. Some markets are still appreciating though, Chicago, Cleveland. [music] But we're living in a deeply bifurcated housing market right now. And where you are on that map matters enormously. Here is where it gets [music] really interesting and frankly uncomfortable. The home price to income ratio [music] in the US right now is sitting at 4.3. You know, the only other time we've [music] seen prices that expensive relative to what people actually earn, 2006, right before the crash. Bloomberg just ran [music] the math. Home prices would need to fall 15 to 20% or incomes would need to rise [music] 15%. Just to get back to historical affordability levels. [music] Let that sink in for a second. And it's not just America. This is a global phenomena. Home prices in New Zealand are down [music] 16%. Canada down almost 20%. England the prices in central London are dropping. The home price to income ratio in England is 7.7. So, US at the 4.3 [music] and we're already screening. England is at 7.7. The prices got too high in too many countries over the last 5 years and the market is starting to [music] say enough. Meanwhile, JP Morgan just published an analysis showing a double peak in mortgage rates held by existing homeowners. A huge cluster of people locked in at 2 and 1 half to 3 1/2% and a growing cluster now at 5 1/2 to 7%. Those two groups are having completely different experiences [music] in this market. And that gap is driving everything. So what does all of this actually mean [music] to you? Let's break it down by who you are. If you're a seller right now, the market is telling you [music] something. If your home has been sitting for 30, 40, 60 days, that's not bad luck. That's price. Sellers who bought in 2020 and 2021 at 2 to 3% rates are not in a rush. They're holding. But sellers who bought or refinanced at six, six and a half, they have much less reason to hold on. And buyers [music] know it. If you're in that second group and you need to move, price is right [music] the first time because the days of pricing high and negotiating to the right price are over in the majority of markets. You're not suppressing demand. You're eliminating it. If you're a buyer right now, [music] this is actually your moment. if you know how to read it. JP Morgan's analysis breaks [music] markets into quadrants. Bottom right, price is dropping, inventory way up. Top left, [music] inventory is still tight, price is still rising. Your strategy depends entirely on which quadrant your market is in. In the markets where inventory is up and prices are softening, you have negotiating power you haven't had in years. [music] Use it. Ask for seller concessions. Ask for closing cost credits. Make offers below ask on homes that have been sitting. The data supports it. And here is the thing about waiting for rates to drop before you buy. While you're waiting, the home you want is either getting cheaper, in which case you should be negotiating now, or it's holding value, in which case waiting costs you equity. [music] Either way, sitting on the sidelines is a decision. Make it consciously. If you already own your home, pay attention to your property taxes. [music] This is the sleeper issue that nobody's talking about loudly enough. Nashville just did a 40% reassessment. Tax [music] bills went up 40 to 50%. Florida is pushing a referendum to bring property taxes down because Rhonda Santis correctly identified that [music] you can own your home outright and still effectively be renting it from the state through property taxes. Higher SS values sound great on paper, [music] but if your tax bill goes up $1,000 a month, that is a mortgage payment on a house you already own, [music] that is real money leaving your pocket every single month. And it's happening right now across the country. the lock in effect and [music] when it breaks. Here is the dynamic that's keeping inventory suppressed and the demand confused [music] at the same time. Millions of homeowners are sitting on two and a half to 3% mortgage rates. [music] They're not selling. They're not moving because the moment they do, they're stepping into a 6 and a4 world. And that's [music] not a small adjustment on a $400,000 loan. That's the difference between a $1,700 a month's payment [music] and a $2,600 a month's payment. People are staying put. But, and this is important, that lock [music] in effect has a breaking point. Life happens, divorces, job relocations, growing families, deaths, estate sales, and in markets where people bought or refinanced at higher rates in the last 2 years. [music] Those sellers are already starting to move and they're cutting prices to do it. Watch [music] for that inventory. Those are your deals. What I'm telling my clients right now, [music] stop trying to time the bottom. You won't find it until it's already passed. What I'm [music] telling people is this. If you're financially ready, if your debt to income is solid, if you have reserves, [music] if you're buying in a market where the data supports it, buy the right house [music] at the top price with the right financing. And if rates drop and they may, you refinance, you marry the house, you [music] date the rate. As beat to [ __ ] as that phrase is, that hasn't changed. What has changed is that you now have more negotiating power than you've had since 2019. Use it. Look, I'm not here to tell you the [music] sky is falling. That is not me as a person. And I'm not here to tell you everything is fine. That's also not me as [music] a person. The honest answer is it depends on your market, your situation, and whether [music] you are working with someone who actually knows how to read the data, not the tea leaves. I track the stuff every single day. And if you want [music] a real conversation about what this market means for your specific situation, whether you're buying, selling, [music] or just trying to figure out if you're sitting on a taking tax bill, book a free call with me and the link is below. No fear of porn, no fake optimism, just the real [music] numbers because that's the only thing that actually helps. I'll see you in the next one. [music]