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Market Pulse is a monthly podcast by Equifax, in partnership with Moody’s Analytics. Equifax hosts bring you interviews with industry experts on the latest economic and credit insights that can help drive better business decisions. Whether you’re in financial, mortgage, auto or another service industry, we help make sense of the latest economic conditions that impact you. This podcast series supplements our Market Pulse webinars, which occur on the first Thursday of each month.
Equifax
Market Pulse podcast
Ep. 49 Transcript
Jesse Harden (00:01):
Welcome all to the Market Pulse podcast. I'm your host, Jesse Harden, a member of the Equifax advisory team. So, as a group, we identify economic considerations and we leverage data and analytics to translate into industry insights. This helps us make recommendations to support our clients during economic uncertainty, and we help uncover growth opportunities in the consumer credit risk space. I'm pleased to welcome our usual cast of characters masquerading as our panel of experts: Em Aliff, Tom O'Neill, Dave Sojka, and Maria Urtubey. Welcome all.
New Speaker (00:34):
Hey there, Jesse,
Dave Sojka (00:35):
You guys. Hey, great to see everybody.
Jesse Harden (00:38):
Yeah. So this December podcast, it's always a fun one for me. This episode, we always wanna look back on what's transpired in the prior year. So in this case, look back at 2024. So we're gonna look at some of the key aspects of the economy, what improved and what didn't, and we'll look at the impact to the Americans in their everyday lives. I like this podcast really because I think it's easier to look back in retrospect than to make predictions moving forward. Were we right? Were we wrong? Or both? So, stay tuned to find out. But before we get started, I've got an important question to ask everyone. Since this episode was recorded after Thanksgiving, did anybody watch a favorite Christmas movie?
Dave Sojka (01:18):
So, YPE ca was my first Christmas movie, and, and to all you dollars out there, love conquers all in the end. So yes, it's a, it's the magic of the holidays. And then for my second movie, we have a little prop comic here. Mm. I love syrup on spaghetti. We watched Elf
Jesse Harden (01:41):
. I'm gonna guess that it was The Likeness to Bruce Willis. Is that the is that the reference? Yes. All right. And how about you?
Em Aliff (01:49):
I've always, I've always enjoyed the movie. It's Wonderful Life. I haven't watched it yet this year, but I will. I really quite you know, find it, you know, really interesting how you know, the main character George you know, jumps off the bridge to save his guardian angel. And then they do the flashback of his life of what things were like WIC with and without you know, him around and to see like, what are all the things that he did and everyone kind of pulled through for him when he needed it most.
Jesse Harden (02:17):
Yeah. That's a good, good story. How about you, Tom?
New Speaker (02:21):
So for me, the, the, the tradition is a Christmas carol, but not, not just any Christmas carol there, there's like a dozen, well, probably way more than a dozen versions, but, but specifically a Christmas Carol with George G. Scott. So that, that's the one that I forced the, the, you know, my wife and kids to sit down with me and watch. And they always complain. But, you know, at the end when, when Scrooge, you know, discovers the meaning of Christmas, everyone's giggling. Or maybe it's just me giggling, but it sounds like it's everyone giggling . So, yeah. So it's, it's, it's, it's definitely a, a family Yeah. Tradition to watch that. We haven't seen it yet. We usually see it like a day or two before, you know, Christmas Eve,
Jesse Harden (03:03):
I get forced to watch white Christmas like that. Yeah. Maria, how about you
Maria Urtubey (03:08):
Haven't re-watched it, but my favorite is home alone. I have to say that's like classic hands down .
Jesse Harden (03:13):
Yeah. And I'm gonna go with another classic. I'm gonna go with Christmas vacation. I, I, I can't, I've gotta pick a Chevy Chase movie. He's just, he's one of my heroes. Pretty funny one, even though it sounds like a few.
New Speaker (03:27):
You don't like it. So how sad is it that, that I've only watched, like, I haven't watched any of the ones that you guys mentioned. Haven't I have to get on the ball?
Jesse Harden (03:35):
Sounds to me like you've got some homework to do.
New Speaker (03:38):
I, I do. This is gonna be a busy holiday season. Lot of screen
Jesse Harden (03:41):
Time. No work, no work being done.
New Speaker (03:43):
No.
Jesse Harden (03:45):
Well, I'll tell you what then before we dive into the 2024 retrospective, let's get a quick macroeconomic overview from our friends at Moody's Analytics.
Justin Begley (03:54):
The US economy continues to show remarkable resilience, but it isn't all sunshine and rainbows. In November, the economy added 227,000 jobs, a significant rebound from October's upwardly revised 36,000 gain, which was weighed down by labor strikes and hurricanes. In the Southeast November's jobs report lifted the three month moving average in payroll growth from 123,000 to 173,000. The healthcare and leisure hospitality industries continue to account for a disproportionate share of payroll growth, and did so even more than usual in November. Nonetheless, the breadth of job creation has widened the recent months as the Bureau of Labor Statistics diffusion index, which measures the percentage of industries adding to payrolls has steadily increased above the 50 point threshold, showing that a majority of industries are hiring at least somewhat. The household survey was less cheerful. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.1% to 4.2%. Unlike previous monthly increases in the jobless rate, November's uptick was owed not to a fast expanding labor force, but rather declining in jobs.
Justin Begley (05:03):
Even so, the share of those unemployed, because they were laid off, fell to its lowest in four years in November. Supporting this layoffs measured by weekly claims for unemployment insurance remain low. Job churn, however, has certainly slowed the quits rate measured by the job openings and labor turnover. Survey ticked up in October, but remains well below. Its its pre pandemic average as the labor market has meaningfully loosened. The hiring rate has also declined as payroll growth has de accelerated over the past two years. Low layoffs, but slower hiring have made it a good time to have a job, but a tough time to be looking for one. In November, the share of unemployed people who have been without a job for 15 weeks or more, held at 40%. And this is a continuation of a meaningful rise in the duration of unemployment in the second half of 2024, taking the payroll and employment reports together. The November jobs report does not represent a material deviation from the labor markets trend in the second half of 2024. And the rate setting federal open market committee is not expected to alter its near term plans. Moody's Analytics assumes another quarter point cut to the Central Bank's primary policy rate when the FOMC meets in a few weeks.
Jesse Harden (06:21):
Thanks Moody's. So in 2024, the US navigated really a mix of highs and lows. The labor market remains strong. Unemployment was hovering at historical lows of around three point half to 4%, really driven by a robust job growth. And we saw an influx of of immigrant workers. Real wages rose slightly supporting consumer spending. Inflation was still stubborn, but especially we, and in, you know, we saw it in areas specifically like shelter and auto insurance, although broader disinflationary trends persisted particularly in goods prices. On the downside, rising interest rates and tightening credit conditions constrained consumers and businesses really alike delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans increased, reflecting stress among lower hou income households. Meanwhile we saw that housing, the housing market was, was somewhat stabilized really though, at lower activity levels, and that was really hindered by those higher mortgage rates that we saw. Despite these challenges, though, corporate investments in areas like artificial intelligence and public infrastructure really helped to offset the broader economic headwinds. So what I want to do is I want to dig a little deeper into some of these areas. Probably one of the most talked about areas of the economy this year has been interest rates really very similar to last year. So, Dave, talk to us a little bit about where interest rates went this year and maybe some of the reasons behind these movements as well as where we are with inflation.
Dave Sojka (07:53):
Yeah, thanks, Jesse. So going back to January, right, so coming outta the pandemic and the choices made by the FMOC to combat inflation in 2023 had us starting off the year at five point a half percent federal funds rate. And it remained there until September when the committee made its first rate cut, and it was a 50 basis point rate cut, so that lowered it to 5%. And really, you know, the Fed was trying to achieve a soft landing meaning keeping the economy out of out of recession. And so for the most part, we, you know, I think we we're most economists would agree that they've done a fairly good job at that. And another rate cut happened last month, November 25 basis points, knocking it down to 4.75%, and I believe that we're expecting at least another 25 basis points this month.
Dave Sojka (08:49):
So the continued cuts are the the Fed seeing that the economy is, is good from a jobs perspective and consumer spending. Which leads me to my next topic. Inflation and inflation's been on the mind of every American for the better part of this year. You could say it impacted the election, both nationally and locally. People were fed up paying $4 for a carton of eggs. Now, a lot of that blame for inflation has been put on the Biden administration stimulus. But going back to the egg example, you know, we had a, a severe bird flu outbreak that caused that. And, you know, no one can predict the bird flu epi epidemic. So there were some outside forces here. So overall, the, over the last 12 months consumer price index has been at 2.6% food, whichever, you know, eggs inclusive in that 2.1% higher. On a positive side, energy is actually down almost 5%, which is surprising, giving all the turmoil in the Middle East. And then all our items within CPI are up about 3.3%. And I think the the rest of the team will give us some more details and impacts around that.
Jesse Harden (10:02):
Yeah. So I guess, Dave, the biggest question I've got for you is are you willing to make the call on soft landing?
Dave Sojka (10:10):
Sure, why not? I couldn't be wrong again for next year.
Jesse Harden (10:15):
,
Dave Sojka (10:16):
Foreshadowing
Jesse Harden (10:18):
Good. Yeah. Well, we'll we'll certainly look forward to that next year's predictions. So yeah, that's great insight, and it'll be exciting to figure out, you know, what interest rates are doing in the future. I think though, you know, a l it's probably a great time to talk about the housing market and, you know, after what we've heard from Dave, can you do a quick recap on the housing market, really what we've seen in 2024?
Em Aliff (10:41):
Yeah, sure. And you know, it's been, you know, I've really enjoyed our conversations on this, you know, behind the scenes, and you may hear me repeat a few things that you've that you've even said you know, to me. But, you know, I guess starting in October is as we think about, you know, some of the things that have occurred, mortgage rates, you know, experienced you know, significant volatility, you know, you know, rates were, you know, taking direct cues, you know, from the bond market, which in turn takes cues from several sources of, of information to be able to have those things fluctuate, you know, such as economic data inflation you know, some, those, the things that Dave was just referring to. Geopolitical events, fiscal policies and, and monetary policies. And there's been some, you know, reprieve that started to take take shape a few weeks ago.
Em Aliff (11:28):
And the, but the underlying bond market is still jumpy. Though, you know, some of that volatility did die down you know, a couple weeks ago as well. You know, some key things to, you know, to point out is, you know, when we're looking at the average 30 day or 30 year fixed rate it held inside a narrow five basis point range and it ended at you know, the same levels, you know, just a couple Fridays ago. And when we look at the, you know, the rates, you know, being, you know, it's, it's almost like there's some fear of stronger economic data with more persistent inflation and overabundance of government debt. You know, that that can help, you know, put upward pressure on rates behind the scenes. And so, you know, we see all this stuff happening that, you know, we, we know that it's not directly tied to the, to the Fed funds rate.
Em Aliff (12:14):
So in order to see some bigger drops in the you know, to a lower level, as we've seen the Fed fund rate drop, we need to see the most closely watched economic reports come in you know, weaker and for inflation to drop below target levels month over month you know I guess from a month over month standpoint. And then when we look at the, you know, 30 year mortgage rates, the way that, you know, some of that math roughly you know, you know, adds, you know, adds up to it, it make, makes up about 10 year, you know, treasury benchmark plus the mortgage spread. You know, when we consider how that, how that operates, so when we look at the spreads and what ha have occurred you know, through that is they've gone from about 175 basis points historically to 250 basis points as more interest you know, rate volatility has entered the picture.
Em Aliff (13:03):
And as we, you know, then consider investors placing demand on a higher spread during times of higher volatility, as there is a risk of prepayments you know, that that will occur. And the spread then is also a function of monetary policy as fed cuts, you know, the short term rates, the yield curve becomes more positively sloped removes volatility and allow spread to come to something a little bit more typical. And, you know, some of the things that we're also, you know, continuing to track around that are the, you know, delinquency rates. And, you know, some of the things that we have observed was like the 2023 vintages for example, had, you know, a little bit higher you know, delinquency rates than, you know, the prior vintages of, of, of more recent years as well. So we're just really, you know, trying to understand and unpack what's happening from an origination standpoint, which origination is gonna be primarily driven by the rates, which have a lot of things that are incorporated in terms of determining that.
Jesse Harden (14:02):
Yeah, that's great insight. I think when you look at the, the, the yields or the yield curve and the, the spreads, I think that's, that nuance is really interesting to me, especially as I think about, as a, as a home seller, you know, I think about you know, you, you've gotten past the election and it seems like things would settle down, but we've actually kind of seen some volatility that have, that have kind of pumped that, that market a little, a little more than we would've expected. So yeah, that's great. I thanks for that insight. So, another area where I'd like to touch on is employment in the labor market. You know, we overall, we saw in the labor market in 2024 that we were normalizing or somewhat slowing. I guess it really depends on which word you like better. And I would say that we really saw resiliency.
Jesse Harden (14:46):
Our job creation numbers showed most months with a three month moving average of job creation above 150,000 jobs. That's really a sign of stability. And we also saw that there was an increase in the unemployment rate from the mid low 3% range to around 4%. And again, that's really normalizing. That's moving to a level that we saw pre pre pandemic. We triggered the som rule, which I think maybe gave a lot of people a new economic term to fret over probably, you know, not not, not anything to worry about. But we also saw Americans saw their wage gains outpace inflation in the last half of the year. Job openings, hirings, and the quits rate were all down. So I think if I sum up the narrative for the labor market in 2024, what I would say is that it's a great market. If you have a job, it's maybe not the best market if you're looking for one. So that's kind of where I would see labor and employment, at least as we look back to 2024, I tell you what, Maria, now that we've kind of heard a bit about interest rates, inflation housing, and other labor market, can you help us dig maybe a little deeper on the impact these areas have had on Americans?
Maria Urtubey (16:00):
Of course, Jesse and the American Con consumer has faced credit and financial challenges beyond the cautious optimism mindset. Leaning more towards the need to be cautious towards the end of the year through October. The higher interest rates to curb inflation have led to increased borrowing costs based on the Federal Reserve. For example, the average interest rate on credit card accounts with the balance was 23.4 in August. Forbes average numbers this week are tracking above 28.7%, while others are calling low 20 threes. So we have continued to observe many households turning to credit card to meet basic needs resulting in a surge in credit card balances. Expensive debt to carry overall revolving debt currently stands at 1.2 trillion 5.2% year over year increase and refer to the housing market. The average mortgage interest rate for a 30 year fixed loan stands at almost 7% with a national median home price over 416,000, and an average sales price over 510,000.
Maria Urtubey (17:17):
So this has led to postponement in home owning plans in some cases for those with a mortgage. Jesse, you referred to this postponement on refinancing anytime soon. If you add on top of this, the additional student loan payments that resumed last year paired with delinquency reporting this October, consumers are reassessing their financial priorities. And on the other hand, the consumer confidence index has increased in November over October, particularly among the less than 35 age group and in the middle income earner group. So there is optimism in our cautious optimism 20 20 14. It's still present this holiday season.
Jesse Harden (18:06):
Yeah, that's, that's certainly good to hear. Do you think, you know, we've talked a lot about the K shape economy. Do you think that's still, is that still kind of prevalent with what we're seeing?
Maria Urtubey (18:14):
I I think it goes hand in hand with that cautious optimism and that disparity right between households. So that's why I've called out the, the age differences and income differences, for sure. Yeah,
Jesse Harden (18:26):
Yeah, yeah. Well, certainly a lot of moving parts to keep track of with what we just heard from Maria, Tom, you know, affordability I think is probably one of the biggest areas of concern still for the economy. Can you talk to us a little bit maybe about how affordability changed or maybe it didn't change this year?
New Speaker (18:45):
? Yeah. I, I, I love having the, the, the most generic of all of the topics
Jesse Harden (18:50):
.
New Speaker (18:51):
Which, which is, which is awesome because yeah, I, I was waiting to see what everyone else was gonna say about their topics to see, okay, what's left over for me? Because really affordability is, it, it's, it touches on, well, not even touches. It is comprised of everything that's, that em and Maria and Dave and you have, have talked about everything from the housing prices to, to the khap economy, to the price of eggs. I mean, if, if, if we look at it, if we step back, it really boils down to how capable is the average consumer, or not even the average, any consumer able to meet, you know, pay for the things that they need or want to pay for. And, and once that's done, how much is left over to put into investments to put into savings to make plans.
New Speaker (19:40):
So, so really affordability is this grab all term that's, that impacts all aspects of someone's, you know, financial wellbeing. And, and just to pull from some of the examples that, that the rest of the team here was speaking about Murray was talking about the, the average home prices and, and, and how the, the, you know, 30 year mortgage rates right now are about 7%. If you think about that, you know, the existing mortgages, you know, mortgages on existing, you know, home, you know, homeowners, that's less than 4%. So put yourself in the, that position of, of someone who maybe I'm considering moving, maybe I'm considering upsizing or downsizing, but I'm sitting here at a 4%, you know, mortgage rate. And I know that if I need to make that change or want to make that change, it comes with a cost of taking that 7%, you know, mortgage rate on top of paying for a house that's now much more expensive than it was just a few years ago. So that's, that's obviously a fundamental impact to those financial choices that I'm gonna make. And given that, you know, Americans have so much of their wealth tied up into their homes, into, into those holdings, that's gonna impact a lot of other aspects of, of their financial, you know, wellbeing. So so everything from Dave's carton of eggs, is it a carton of egg or a package of egg? I think it's a carton of eggs anyway. Yeah,
Jesse Harden (21:12):
I think carton, we'll go with car
New Speaker (21:13):
Carton carton's probably, right? . So everything from that, that decision to, you know, to what I am buying at the grocery store to, can I afford to get a new car? You know, or do I send the, send the existing one into the shop for now to, you know, am I in a position to, to move or to, to get a larger house or to downsize? All of these things are impacted by what we're, we're calling affordability. And, and you know, one other example of that is, is the, you is is, even as we head into the retail, you know season, you know, the holiday season how much are consumers going to be willing to spend and be able to spend, you know, one of the things that's, that there's a lot of talk about, you know, prior to the, the fed cutting rates was when they do cut rates, you know, one of the first things that we should see is a drop in, in credit cards, interest rates, and maybe that'll help delinquencies and maybe that'll help spur, you know, some more, more spending and utilization on those cards.
New Speaker (22:16):
Well, the Fed has cut rates, as Dave said, and, and we have seen a little bit of a drop, as Marie was saying, in those average interest rates in, in cards. But it hasn't been much, and, and it certainly hasn't, you know, swung the needle in terms of car originations and, and, you know, motivation to spend more on that revolving balance. So, so even there, we're seeing again, you know, this impact of affordability from the very small, you know, buying those eggs to the very large, you know, buying the house or not buying the house. So it is something that, that will impact and has continues to impact all consumers regardless of where they fall in the, you know, the income hierarchy, the, the credit score hierarchy, you know, it's, it, it'll impact them differently for sure, but it impacts everyone.
Jesse Harden (23:11):
Yeah. So I, I think what I hear then is the theme affordability is, is really broad, and that definition really means something potentially different to, to each each borrower, it sounds like.
New Speaker (23:22):
Absolutely.
Jesse Harden (23:23):
Yeah. Well, I have a sneaking suspicion then that we're gonna be talking about affordability well into into 2025. So I'll go ahead and close this section out then and talk a little bit about some of the key macroeconomic threats that we that we focused on in 2024. We've talked about a topic that's, it's, it's been around since the pandemic. It's the rise of student loan delinquency and debt. And I think Maria kind of, you know, spoke to it as well, but we saw the resumption of delinquency reporting this year with student loan, at least federal student loans, and we're no doubt gonna wanna watch the impact of this really on the, the federal student loan debt holders into 2025. We also saw some impact of, you know, high profile labor disputes. We had the dock workers dispute the Boeing and Samsung disputes.
Jesse Harden (24:12):
This comes on the heels of big labor disputes in 2023. And I think, you know, as an example, the Boeing strike, I think impacted around 50,000 jobs in the October report. A few others that come to mind. Certainly we had and leading up to November 5th, we knew that the election was gonna potentially kind of be a bumpy season. Now that the dust has settled, it seems like the, you know, the market and the economists are really turning to what they're, turning their attention to, what the policy impacts might be, what are the impacts that that we can see on the economy with the, the policy changes coming forward. And then finally, you know, never to forget. We still have, you know, active war conflicts going on across across the globe. So I think that the one certainty that we have is that we're gonna continue to see these macro conflicts whether they're, you know, whether they have an impact on the economy, which most, you know, seem to at some you know, to some level.
Jesse Harden (25:08):
We just, you know, would continue to watch the severity of, of how they do impact the economy. So, yeah, great information. Love the insight about 2024. Again, you know, can't wait to see what the predictions are for 2025. This is a fun part though. So we've come to the lightning round, and what I want to do now is I want to recap the 2024 predictions that we made from our prod, our podcast at this time last year. So I think it was around December when we made this, this podcast. Looking forward to 2024. Specifically, were we close? Did we hit the mark or were we way off? And so the rules of this game is we want to keep it short and sweet for the listener. So one minute or less. So this is the lightning round. Dave, how about your predictions?
Dave Sojka (25:55):
Alright, so since I'm still here, you're later. I'm not very good at predicting the future, hence the lottery winning . So my, my prediction was around BNPL and the requirement some regulatory requirements around reporting. And so while there were some movement, there was some movement by the CFPB around stating that BNPL issuers are just like credit card issuers, meaning that the card holders as well as the BNPL holders have the same rights no matter what. And so that really was the only regulatory movement on the BMPL front. So I am gonna take a big
Jesse Harden (26:43):
Negative, I'm being accurate. All right. So we're we're, oh, for one then what's, that's what you're saying, huh? Yes. All right. I'll ke I'll keep tally. So then you're up. How did how did we do last year with your predictions?
Em Aliff (26:55):
All right, lemme start my timer. So I had four things that I wanted to talk about that I thought would transpire. The first one was student loan repayment shocks. I still think that we are anticipating that shock to occur. 'cause Those payments, you know, just went back in place. And as we all know, there was not forgiveness, you know, outside of the, the small modicum amounts that were that were forgiven. So we, you know, I do still anticipate that there will be some pretty heavy shock with respect to those people who are unable to have the affordability met. Then pivoting, I did talk about the auto market a bit because of the boom in 2020 and 2021 with you know, the equity, you know, you know, what, what's happening in those spaces of the amortization schedule and vehicle values.
Em Aliff (27:39):
We have seen some of those things occur specifically, you know, some of the credit union meetings that you know, that I've been in where, you know, seen large numbers of you know, people walking away from their car, leaving in the lot. Now, you know, delinquencies have not gone, you know, to you know, anything that's out of control necessarily. But we have seen that rise. So we, you know, we've seen some, you know, some increases in delinquencies, specifically from the vintages that you know, that we're, that we were referring to. And, you know, as delinquencies have been rising, that does, you know, create you know, you know, the need, we predicted that there'd be more interest in portfolio reviews. We have seen that that interest continue to you know, to grow and evolve. And e even even in places we're seeing some things like securitization in that space. So I, I do think that I would give myself probably 75% you know, accuracy versus a hundred percent,
Jesse Harden (28:30):
Oh, now you're gonna make it hard. So we're what 0.75 to one is that that falls
New Speaker (28:36):
More into, I think that falls more into the TBD than a No
Em Aliff (28:41):
I, I, quantum physics is a hobby of mine, so
New Speaker (28:44):
I, I think, I think it's, you know, zero, one and one for a tie. Yeah.
Jesse Harden (28:49):
All right. 0 1 1. All right. That sounds good, Maria. Yeah, how about you?
Maria Urtubey (28:53):
Well, I, I'm more on the following Dave's steps. I think I had predicted increases in the volume of strategic defaulters on student loans and uncertainty around the income repayment plan. So maybe just slightly hitting the, the last one. But we have experienced servicing failures and setbacks, and in fact the federal student aid within the Department of Education is currently conducting audit of the federal student loan files that were previously in default. So we have yet to receive the, the data. I talked to the data contributor contributor team at Equifax, and it might take another two weeks. So, yet to be determined, i i, we don't have that data. We thought we would by now since reporting resumed in October, but we have yet to, to wait even for the files.
Jesse Harden (29:48):
All right. So I I, I'm gonna go out a, i, I think that's a one, I think that's a win. So we'll go one, one,
New Speaker (29:53):
That, that kind
Jesse Harden (29:54):
Sounds
New Speaker (29:54):
Like another, another TBD to me half
Maria Urtubey (29:57):
Full. Yeah. TBD
Jesse Harden (29:58):
You know what, I'm, I'm the, I'm the host this time, so I'm calling in the win . Okay. We're one, one and one. How about, how about you, Tom?
New Speaker (30:06):
So, so first off, Mia Marie, you got ai, right? I think I, I think I, I think I know what your problems were. You, you both made predictions that depended upon, you know, some regulatory body to take action or do the right thing. Yes. So, so that, that's the problem right off. So going into 2025, you know, what to base your, your predictive powers off of. So, so I am going to, to boldly claim that mine was a, was a complete hit. You know, when my prediction I said that AI was, that 2024 was the year that AI was finally going to actually have a substantial impact on the financial industry. And, and I'm almost embarrassed, you know, how, how right that was, it almost makes it seem like it was a, it was a gimme prediction, you know, back at the time. You know, though it wasn't, but it, but we do see, we have obviously seen AI take hold beyond the customer service beachhead that it's, that it started with in, in the financial industry. It's, it's involved in investment strategies and risk management, fraud detection, customer services, obviously planning advisory services on and on. And, and I think we're just beginning. So, so yeah, I, I think I can chalk up a, a, a, a victory on our side there.
Jesse Harden (31:20):
WW on that one, huh?
New Speaker (31:21):
A w there? Yep.
Jesse Harden (31:23):
It, yeah, if, if maybe if maybe an easy prediction, but that's okay. We'll we'll, we'll do
New Speaker (31:28):
It. It didn't seem like it at the time. .
Jesse Harden (31:31):
Okay.
New Speaker (31:31):
I'll give myself that.
Jesse Harden (31:32):
Hindsight's 2020. Okay. Alright, so I'm gonna go last I have a confession to make. Last year my prediction was that we would see the first federal rate cuts and that the the cuts would have impact on originations. And so I'm gonna, I'm gonna fall on the sword and say that was kind of a duh prediction. But I will say that one of the things that did surprise me is, is kind of what em said is the the impact really that the election had on treasury rates and the, and the flow through to 30 year fixed mortgage rates. That was something that I didn't necessarily kind of think about. So certainly really interesting to you know, to kind of see the, the impact that the election had and, and still has. So if I did my math correctly, I think we're two, one and two I'll give it 2 1 2.
Jesse Harden (32:20):
So not that bad. Certainly maybe a, maybe a good a good barometer for where we wanna beat next year. So yeah, as you can see though, we had some calls, they were on the money, others were near accurate. And then some of us, like myself stated the obvious. I certainly look forward to our predictions in 2025 this time next year to see how accurate we were. So with that, I wanna thank Dave and Maria and Tom for joining me today. And to our listeners, I wanna say I hope you enjoyed today's topic. More importantly, from all of us at the Equifax advisors, you know, I hope you have a healthy, safe, and fun holiday season. If you have any questions, you can certainly reach out to us, especially if you have ideas for a future podcast. Reach out to us at risk advisors@equifax.com. We look forward to hearing from you.