AWM Insights Financial and Investment News

Justin and Mena tackle the swirl of macro headlines — AI disruption fears, Middle East tensions, SpaceX going public, and a mission to the moon — and bring it back to what actually matters for investors: having a durable plan, staying diversified, and using money as a tool to accomplish what's most important to you.

Chapters
(00:00) Introduction: A lot going on (understatement of the year)
(00:36) AI headlines: fear mongering vs. real opportunity
(02:04) Going to the moon and the pace of innovation
(02:17) How AWM thinks about questioning existing beliefs
(03:10) The AI doomsday narrative — why we don't buy it
(04:10) Private market proof: AI cutting customer service costs by 60%
(05:19) Creative destruction and the history of innovation
(06:10) Segue: How does all of this change how we invest?
(06:38) Answer: It doesn't — but it does underscore diversification
(07:19) Geopolitical reset and why volatility can be a buying opportunity
(08:05) Managing your news diet and focusing on what you can control
(09:29) S&P 500 profit margins expanding because of AI
(09:44) SpaceX confidentially IPO-ing at $1T+ — all value created in private markets
(10:11) OpenAI at $850B — the private market opportunity you can't afford to miss
(10:26) Closing: Diversification as the plan across regions, public, and private markets

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Creators and Guests

Host
Justin Dyer
Chief Investment Officer and Chief Operating Officer at AWM Capital
Host
Mena Hanna
Senior Investment Analyst at AWM Capital

What is AWM Insights Financial and Investment News?

A bite sized discussion on timely financial news and investment topics, to help you maximize your net worth and wealth for the next generation with Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna of AWM Capital.

Justin Dyer: Hey everyone.

Welcome back to another
episode of A WM Insights.

It's your host, Justin Dyer,
chief Investment Officer here

at a WM joined, as always by.

Mina Hana, portfolio manager at a WM
and we're just gonna jump right into it.

There's a lot going on that might
be, uh, one of the, the, the bigger

understatements of, of the year,
maybe even, uh, of the last few years.

Um, right.

Uh, we've been talking a lot about the
conflict in the Middle East over the

last few episodes of market volatility,
oil prices, all of that good stuff.

And we're, we'll certainly
still touch on that.

That's obviously, probably top
of mind for a lot of people.

Um.

But we're gonna expand that.

We're gonna expand that into a lot
of the other narratives that are, uh,

maybe in some cases newer or in other
cases, have just kind of fallen to the

background and, and are slowly, uh,
um, rising, rising to the forefront.

And one of those, Mina being.

AI right now that hasn't totally
fallen into the background.

I think that's probably still been
on the, on the top of mind for or on

tops of minds for many, many folks.

Uh, but at least in, in my newsfeed,
it seems like the question around

the impact, the broader impact of ai.

Is is popping back up again.

What is it gonna do to jobs long term?

Is this gonna be completely disruptive?

Is it gonna take all the jobs?

All of that type of stuff.

A lot of it's very much fear mongering.

Um, but it's certainly adding
to just like general uncertainty

and, and general complexity of,
of the current environment You.

We can add to that, uh, uh,
on the potential positive

side, SpaceX is going public.

Um, right.

We've already talked
about the aforementioned

conflict in the Middle East.

I mean, there's, there is no, no
shortage of interesting things going on.

Some of them are more relevant
to investing than than others.

Uh, we're, we're sending
people around the moon

Mena Hanna: for the first

Justin Dyer: in decades in,
what is it, 50, 60 years, which

is, uh, which is kind of cool.

Um, but yeah, just again.

No shortage of things going on, no
shortage of market volatility, and

we want to talk through how, how are
we digesting all of this and, and.

You know, in a way questioning
our, our existing beliefs.

We, we've alluded to that in
conversations before, right?

We don't stick our head in the sand.

We definitely are long-term investors,
and the bar to make any changes is

insanely high because we know from
data and, and, um, and history that.

Making changes, generally speaking,

It,

especially making, making emotional
changes, making knee jerk reactions

is usually a recipe for, for failure
or, or poor returns at a minimum.

Um, but again, we don't
stick our heads in the sand.

We, we pay attention to what's going on.

We ask these questions.

Um, it is an interesting time
to be in, in, in our position.

And, and, yeah.

So maybe, I mean, just
turning it over to you like.

like.

Mena Hanna: like,

Justin Dyer: How are
we thinking about this?

What are the questions
we're asking ourselves?

What are, you know, more importantly,
what are the, the conclusions

that, that we're leading with?

Mena Hanna: Yeah.

And the AI doomsday narrative is
such as an, an interesting one.

I'm here right now, so I
be, I don't believe in it.

If I did believe in the doomsday
narrative, I would be going to

trade school to become a plumber.

Uh, there would be a career change
and I would, uh, withdraw from here.

But there, there is that
narrative going on that all white

collar jobs are gonna be taken.

AI can do things so
efficiently, so quickly.

Alright.

You blow up a large.

Pretty much every service, job, surface
service, excuse me, job in the us

what are you going to be left with?

You're gonna be left with an
extremely high unemployment rate.

You're gonna be left with people
not being able to buy anything.

And it's sort of this just
negative cycle of, of doom

Justin Dyer: of doom

Mena Hanna: in a way.

That's not really how innovation
works, and it's not how

innovation has worked in the past.

Usually when you have.

Innovation.

Yeah.

Disrupts some businesses.

It disrupts the incumbents, but there's
real value that's created on the backend

here through a whole host of businesses.

I think one thing that people kind of
ignore is a lot of businesses are going

to be more efficient, and we've actually
seen this in the private markets.

When you do incorporate AI customer
service oriented businesses, if you're

able to kind of, one of our businesses
is able to cut your customer service.

Bill by 60%.

If you're able to do that, then your
business is immediately more valuable.

So I, I think people kind of
miss all of these smaller details

and they think AI is gonna be
disruptive, it's gonna be negative.

Where there is a lot of real value
that's created both in public markets

and in private markets that usually
and historically has far outweighed

kind of what the incumbents have lost.

So.

Even though there are losses and there's
always going to be losses when there's

innovation and when there's disruption,
there's usually a lot more to gain.

And, and you, you see that from just
the growth of indexes in general.

Justin Dyer: Yeah, totally.

I mean, there, there's a, a great old,
uh, quote or adage, whatever you wanna

call it, of creative destruction like,
and that that's part of capitalism.

And that's exactly what you're saying.

You know, I think there is a plausible
argument that the, the pace of, of that

disruption with ai, or just technology
in general, I mean, has, has sped up.

Um, but.

Human, humankind, human nature
has always taken new technologies

and actually used it for.

To better, to better humankind, to
better the species in a creative way.

That doesn't mean there's, there isn't
disruption, you know, amongst, uh,

certain roles and, and hey, there has
to be a retooling of, uh, a re-skilling

of certain industries and jobs in
a different, in a different way.

That probably will happen.

I would almost say it's a, it's a
certainty that something like that

will happen over what timeframe, you
know, your guess is as good as mine.

I, I, I think kind of that, that's
a great, um, segue into, right.

We, we don't play those games of guessing.

We play the game of, of allocating
capital in a way that gives us the highest

confidence to meet our client prior
client's priorities in a time like this.

I like we was, I like I
was asking you, excuse me.

Uh, you know, how are we, we, we
questioning ourselves and whatnot.

What are we thinking about internally?

And, and we say, okay, well how is
that gonna change how we should invest?

And at the end of the
day, the answer is, is no.

If anything, I think it
underscores the general approach.

Most certainly, it underscores
diversification and the benefit of it,

of diversification when there is this
insanely wide dispersion of, of potential

events that are happening, whether it's
AI driven or the geopolitical, um, climate

and environment, whether it's the current.

Conflict and war in the Middle East
with Iran or or otherwise, right?

It's, you know, for the last 18
or so months, there's just been

a heightened even beyond that.

There's just been high heightened,
um, tensions, a around the world

and there's a reset that's going on,

Mena Hanna: and,

Justin Dyer: and so you take a step back.

Understand all, all of
that, what's going on?

Yeah.

It's creating some volatility,
which is never fun.

We have a plan in place to capitalize
on that, uh, if and when that

hits and gets even more extreme.

And oh, by the way, if you know you
happen to be in the world of baseball

and paychecks start hitting and
there's some volatility, generally

that's actually a good time to
invest and put capital to work.

'cause you're potentially
buying it at discounts.

So w.

All that's going on could give folks a
little bit of a heartburn, heartache,

headaches, whatever you wanna call it.

I would also very much
encourage people to, to double

check their, their news diet.

Right?

And, and yeah, maybe
you're interested in it.

But don't get obsessed with it because
you gotta focus on what you can control.

Um, that's certainly true
just in life in general.

It's also true within investing and
your portfolio, and acknowledge that,

hey, we don't predict the future.

We, we, we can't control markets.

We can take advantage of markets.

We can set ourselves up for
success with markets ahead of

time and come in with that.

Plan and, and really make sure
the odds are stacked in our favor.

Um, but yeah, you, you, you, you put
all this together and, and I certainly

have been thinking about this and I
am very, very thankful that we have

the diversification, um, uh, tenant
really core to everything we do.

Whether that's global diversification
in general across entire portfolios or

like what you were talking about across
public markets and private markets 'cause.

AI largely is in private
markets right now.

Not to say public companies aren't
using this technology, but from a

company kind of picks and shovels
approach, that is largely in the

private markets at this point in time.

Mena Hanna: Yeah.

And what we're seeing in public
markets in terms of the benefit there

is profit margins are expanding.

So we're, we're all nerds here on the
call and we look at, you know, the s

and p five hundreds profit margins.

We, we track those.

They've been expanding because of
ai because companies are able to do

a lot more with a lot less, that's
actually a tailwind in general.

Uh, so yeah, there are all of these
benefits, but you can only really.

Benefit from the benefits if you're
diversified, and that's diversified across

sectors and as you said, in private and
public markets because a lot of that value

is being realized in private markets.

You know, couple headlines.

SpaceX is confidentially
IPOing, like that is at,

Justin Dyer: that's not just
information we know about.

Yeah.

That's been broadcast across the

Mena Hanna: I'm not going to jail.

Yeah, I'm not going to
jail for saying that.

Um, that's like they're, they're gonna
do that at over a trillion dollars.

Which is a mind-boggling number.

That value has all been
created in the private markets.

Same thing with OpenAI.

They're raising at 800, or
they did raise at $850 billion.

Um, all of that has been
realized in the private markets.

So if you're not investing in the
private markets as well, you have the

resources, you have the time horizon too.

You are missing out, especially
with this new regime change that

you've, you talked about and you
discussed, you are missing out on.

A significant source
of, of wealth creation.

Justin Dyer: Yeah.

Yeah.

Well said.

Well, um, we'll leave it there.

There is a lot going on again,
kind of understatement of,

of, of the, of the year.

Certainly maybe beyond that.

Um.

But know that there's a plan
for, for all this, right?

The, all of these events are
certainly contributing to uncertainty.

Very volatile markets.

That likely, I think is, I shouldn't
say, I think that's likely to continue,

but we have that plan in place and
diversification, broadly speaking across.

Regions, across geographies, across public
markets and private markets is the way

to deal with these type of environments.

Uh, it gives us the highest
confidence of success for you all our

clients, and most importantly using.

Money as a tool to accomplish
what's important to you, and that

is your priorities and goals.

And that is how we deploy capital
and, and stress test, right?

That is the bar we're always thinking
about and really, really making sure

we're, we're measuring ourselves
against, uh, and very confident that

that approach is the best way to
deal with environments like that.

So, um, keep questions
coming, lots going on.

Any questions about this
podcast in particular or just

what's going on in the world?

Shoot us a

Mena Hanna: 6 2 6 8 6 2 0

Justin Dyer: 5 5.

Awesome.

And until next time, own your wealth,
make an impact, and always be a pro.

Thanks for listening.