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Key Wealth Matters, a podcast series hosted by the experts of the Key Wealth Institute, explores the biggest news of today to determine how these headlines can impact wealth plans, financial strategies, markets, and investments.
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_____________________________________________________
We gather data and information from specialized sources and financial databases including but not limited to Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), Dow Jones / Dow Jones Newsplus, FactSet, Federal Reserve and corresponding 12 district banks / Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), ICE BofA (Bank of America) MOVE Index, Morningstar / Morningstar.com, Standard & Poor’s and Wall Street Journal / WSJ.com.
Key Wealth, Key Private Client, Key Private Bank, Key Family Wealth, and KeyBank Institutional Advisors are brand names used by KeyBank National Association (KeyBank). Key Wealth and Key Private Client are also brand names used by Key Investment Services LLC (KIS), member FINRA/SIPC and SEC-registered investment advisor.
The Key Wealth Institute is comprised of financial professionals representing KeyBank National Association (KeyBank) and certain affiliates, such as Key Investment Services LLC (KIS) and KeyCorp Insurance Agency USA Inc. (KIA).
Any opinions, projections, or recommendations contained herein are subject to change without notice, are those of the individual author(s), and may not necessarily represent the views of KeyBank or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates.
This material presented is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or product or to employ a specific investment or tax planning strategy.
KeyBank, nor its subsidiaries or affiliates, represent, warrant or guarantee that this material is accurate, complete or suitable for any purpose or any investor and it should not be used as a basis for investment or tax planning decisions. It is not to be relied upon or used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. It should not be construed as individual tax, legal or financial advice.
The summaries, prices, quotes and/or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. They are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to replace any confirmations or statements. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Brokerage and certain investment advisory services are offered through Key Investment Services LLC (KIS), member FINRA/SIPC and SEC-registered investment advisor. Insurance products are offered through KeyCorp Insurance Agency USA, Inc. (KIA) and underwritten by third party insurance carriers not affiliated with KIS. KIS and KIA are affiliates under the common control of KeyCorp. To learn more about KIS’s investment business, as well as our relationship with you, please review our KIS Disclosure page. Check the background of KIS on FINRA's BrokerCheck.
Non-Deposit products are:
NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE • NOT A DEPOSIT • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL OR STATE GOVERNMENT AGENCY
©2026 KeyCorp®. All rights reserved.
Brian Pietrangelo [00:00:00]
Welcome to the Key Wealth Matters weekly podcast, where we casually ramble on about important topics, including the markets, the economy, human ingenuity, and almost anything under the sun, giving you the keys to open doors in the world of investing. Today is Friday, September 25th, 2026. I'm Brian Pietrangelo, and welcome to the podcast. If you are a baseball fan, you're getting real excited for the postseason, what are called the boys of summer moving into October, and the teams are almost fully set as to those who will make the playoffs. So good luck to all those teams that are headed into the postseason. In addition, in case you didn't know, today is being known as a new type of observation for Dolly Parton and the absolute memory of her legacy in the music industry with a little bit of a pun on the 925 movie with today being September 25th, also known as 925. Many state leaders and other leaders are calling for this observation day so we continue to celebrate her legacy. With that, I would like to introduce our panel of investing experts here to share their insights on this week's market activity and more. George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer, Steve Hoedt, Head of Equities, and Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income. As a reminder, a lot of great content is available on key.com slash wealth insights, including updates from our Wealth Institute on many different subjects and especially our Key Questions article series addressing a relevant topic for investors. In addition, if you have any questions or need more information, please reach out to your financial advisor. Taking a look at this week's market and economic activity, the economic release calendar was extraordinarily light, which is very unusual. So there's not a lot of market moving data that we can share with you this week. But we will talk a little bit about Trump and the US General Assembly and his meeting with President Xi. In addition to where 10 year yields have gone, they've been up and then they've been down a little bit. So we'll get Rajeev's take on it. But more importantly, talk most about what's been happening in the stock market this week. So we'll move right to Steve to get his thoughts. Steve.
Steve Hoedt [00:02:12]
Brian, I think all eyes from equity investors have been on the action in the bond market this week because if you look at where stocks are, really we haven't gone anywhere since last Friday, just up a handful of points. Back and forth trading all week. But if you look at a 10-year yield, I'm sure Rajeev will talk a little bit later, we were as low as 493 on Tuesday. And we sit here on Friday morning when we record this and we're at 521. So it's been a significant move higher in the 10 year. And 5% has basically been, for lack of a better way of putting it, imagine a line for the equities market in terms of are things okay or not over the last 30 plus years. Once you get above 5%, stock market investors start to pay attention to what's going on. And I think that's part of the headwind why we've seen stocks have not really make much headway upward this week. It's an open question where this is going to go from here. I think that we've seen bond yields march higher on a global basis for the last six plus months. It's been synchronized across markets. And again, equities have moved higher. So the stock market hasn't cared, but that doesn't mean that it won't start to care at some point here. And as to my point earlier, once you get above 5%, the equities market starts to care a little bit. So we'll see how this goes over the coming weeks and months, especially if we are in a tightening cycle where we start to get more hikes out of the Fed, because it does seem like at least since while they were easing bond markets, bond yields were going higher at the long end of the curve. And now that they've been, they started hiking, yields are going higher too. So it just feels like yields want to go higher here. And like I said, we're at a level where stocks are going to start to have to feel it. There's been a lot of rotation underneath the hood of the market because of this. Banks are not doing well as you would expect. interestingly, it feels like the market's been held up by tech and AI again over the last couple of weeks. So while we've got this rotation out of things that may be interest rate sensitive as rates have worked our way higher, we've seen things like the AI levered names doing well again. Obviously you're out with the Muse news from Meta this week, which has driven a bit of a rotation into those names. And we can talk about that if people want to. But I think when you look at the earnings numbers for the 500, over $400 per share in terms of EPS at this point, we've seen the multiple continue to de-rate. Again, I think that part of that de-rating is driven by what's going on in the bond market, as well as people not being willing to pay up for some one-time earnings that they think are in that EPS number. But I think as we head into the fourth quarter, the case for the market to just continue to rip higher here, it really does rest on the bond market not having a significant move higher in rates from here for sure, if not seeing rates turn around and go the other direction. I mean, I know it just feels like everything is about rates in my talk this week, and I'm sure that warms Radeep's heart on the bond side, but it really does feel like that's the biggest. And the other thing I would point out too is like diesel prices are at new all-time highs as we sit this week. Diesel is literally in everything. Jeff Curry, the former strategist at Goldman, he's been pretty prominent in media circles. He's got a saying that everything that you see in the commodities markets and that you touch is diesel and dirt. So diesel is an input cost in literally everything that you see. And I think that if you think that the inflation numbers are going to get better with diesel prices at 650 plus, that I think is people are going to have another thing coming when they see that.
Brian Pietrangelo [00:06:44]
So George, let's switch to you with some thoughts on what might have happened in some pretty big meetings in Washington, DC this week.
George Mateyo [00:06:50]
Yeah, you're right, Brian. There were a couple of big meetings there and a few things in New York as well. You know, I think overall, though, in terms of what happened in DC first and foremost. I think there was probably a lot of pageantry on display, not a lot of policy, however. That's probably okay. At least I think the two sides are talking and I give the administration credit for trying to establish and maintain some level of dialogue. That's always good when the two big superpowers of the world are talking rather than not. I think kind of coming into this, there was maybe the expectation that There would be focus on the four Ts. There would be focus on trade, flash tariffs. There would be focus on tech and AI. There'd be some focus, of course, on Taiwan and also certainly Tehran in terms of what's happening in Iran. Because I think it is important to recognize that China, for good or for bad, has, it seems like behind the scenes, been helping the Iranians stay armed for good or for bad, but probably mostly for bad. Nonetheless, I think it's fair to say that we didn't see any major breakthroughs on many of those fronts. We did get a few things as it relates to a couple of bees. Those would be soybeans, beans and beef and bears, panda bears more specifically. But again, all alliteration aside, I think it is fair to say that again, the two sides are talking. And so I think that's always constructive when it happens. There's some promise. I think both readouts that I read suggest that both parties are willing to continue the conversation And that emphasis on the word continue is always good in the sense that, again, it maintains some level of conversation. I think, again, the other big news, of course, was the conversations that took place in New York at the UN meeting from a number of different stakeholders, which I won't go into a lot of detail. But as it relates to just geopolitical complex, that still seems to be an underlying theme as well. And as Steve pointed out, that's kind of providing some level of support, unfortunately, for the upward prices on diesel and other things in the energy complex. So again, we saw some minor escalations kind of in words and also on the battlefield, unfortunately, and there's probably some growing concerns around what happens post midterms if things really escalate thereafter. Of course, nobody really knows, but I think that is a risk that we have to be mindful of and has to be front and center as it relates to, again, what happens with diesel prices and energy prices that, again, are also kind of rippling through the rates markets, which Steve was right to point out as well. So I think it does kind of center on that dynamic. It centers, I think the market's going to be kind of pinned to what happens in rates as well. We have talked a lot about this and there is a point now that this does kind of cause a bit of concern and maybe if nothing else, what I would kind of urge our listeners and viewers to think about is this, think about their overexposure towards risk assets in general. And yeah, this year has been a pretty good year for risk assets overall, such as stocks and some more speculative stocks have done super well up until recently anyway. And I think it's probably important to recognize that if you haven't really touched your portfolio in a few years, it may make sense to look at the overall exposure towards risk assets and perhaps rebalance. There are reasons probably that bonds could continue to underperform as they've done this year. But overall, you've got probably a better cushion out than you have in quite some time as well. So bonds are no longer boring, as we say. And again, I think some of the silver lining of all this is to say that despite the fact that there's been a lot of headwinds that have pushed bond rates up, I think a big driver we can't dismiss is the fact that the overall growth outlook to the economy has been really quite strong. And that was evidenced by some survey data this week, which I personally wouldn't put too much credence in. But the overall employment situation is still pretty strong. We talked about the consumer last week has been pretty healthy. And overall, I think the growth dynamics for the economy are right now anyway, holding in rather well. But that said, I think, Rajeev, one thing that we do need to get your thoughts on as relates to the rate markets has to do with what's happened or what might happen next month in Washington, again, which of course is another FOC meeting. The Fed is poised to meet again at the end of the month. So we still have a long ways between now and then. But I think it'll be interesting to see if the Fed actually is likely to tighten rates just a few days before the midterms in late October. Based on my watch, it seems like the overall probability that happened has increased. But what say you with respect to rates in the next few months or so?
Rajeev Sharma [00:11:08]
Well, thank you, George. And to Steve's point also, I mean, rates have continued to move higher. It's been a really tough week as far as Treasury yields go and a significant selloff in the Treasury curve this week. We did see yields move to their multi-decade highs, a little bit of recovery this morning, but not enough. The 10-year yield reached as high as 5.20%. That's a level that we haven't seen for almost 20 years. And now there's a little bit of pullback, maybe about four basis points this morning on my screens, but oil prices have eased and that's exactly what's impacting these treasury yields. I mean, if you look at the year of the week over week, the two year is up almost 15 basis points. And that's to your point, George, as far as What is the Fed going to do come the next meeting, FOMC meeting? It's very close to midterms. Some may say that the Fed won't do anything right before the midterms, but I really think the Fed is going to be focused on inflation reports. You have a 30 year that's 5.5%, which again, to Steve's point, it does rival some of the thoughts about rotating out of stocks into bonds because you're not seeing these kind of yields for, as I said, over 20 years. And what's happening right now is really inflation and the Fed hawkishness. There's many Fed officials that have come out. Fed speak has come out, including Governor Barr and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson. They signaled further rate hikes may be needed to return inflation to the Fed's target of 2%. You have other talking heads talking about a 10 year forecast hovering around 5%. So there really is no relief in sight as far as rates go. And then when you get the psychological level of a 5% on the tenure, you generally see buyers step in. At 5.2%, we did not see buyers step in yet. I think if you have treasury options coming up, you're going to see a lot of price pressure on rates. Oil prices are going to be, as I said, a significant factor. If you're over $100 a barrel, that's a key inflation driver. It will amplify the sell off in rates. Then you have fiscal concerns. I mean, we have $40 trillion of US debt. No real plan to bring that down in any way. So budget deficits are contributing to the view that the bond sell off is real and will continue. Then you have curve steepening. The long end really bore the brunt of the move that we saw this week. 30 year yields, as I said, hit the highest level since 2004. So you have a 210s curve and a 530s spread that have steepened sharply. Then if you want to think about volatility, then you look at the move index, which for our listeners is something that bond investors really want to take a close look at, just like the VIX index for equities. The move index was surged almost 30% this week. That's the largest weekly jump since April 2025. And we know that was when tariffs were announced. So treasury buybacks are happening, treasury auctions are happening. All of this is putting pressure on rates to remain at least elevated. And then you have corporate bond spreads that have been pretty resilient, but we do have a lot of issuances coming into the market. It hasn't put a lot of pressure on bond spreads, but it's very interesting to see investment grade credit reaching a three-year high of almost 6%. So it's hard to deny the fact that there is yield in fixed income. And I think a lot of investors are going to be looking at this and you're going to see a lot more inflows coming into invest grade and other risk products within fixed income.
Steve Hoedt [00:14:56]
Hey, Rajeev, my question and I think the biggest concern right now is I get the Fed's focus on inflation, but at the same time, what concerns me is that the persistence of inflation is difficult for them to try to remedy with higher rates when it's been put in place largely here recently, this impulse by structural supply chain issues in the petrochemical market. Like they can't fix the global refining situation that could ease diesel prices. And the more that they hike, they can hike all they want. But if diesel prices remain above $6 per gallon, inflation's not coming down whether they hike or not. So like I worry that we're getting to a place where I don't know that I throw around the word policy error, but like it's a it's a it's a real question whether they're they I mean, I don't think they have the tools to do what they're trying to do with this. It's like a blunt instrument and they're beating on the market saying, hey, we don't want this inflation thing. But the problem is that what they're doing isn't going to cause inflation to go down unless they end up, you know, putting a crater in the economy and causing demand to crash.
Rajeev Sharma [00:16:21]
I mean, it's a very good point, Steve, and I think a lot of, you know, those thoughts were the last FOMC being that is 25 basis points even going to do anything. Do we do 50 basis points? Will that do anything? But you have core broad based pressures that are happening right now you have, as you mentioned, there's. a deep feeling that inflation cannot come down just with a 25 basis point rate hike. I think the Fed has to use other tools right now to think about how to bring this down. And I really do think that you have also seen the AI driven demand. I mean, you've had some Fed speak come out and said artificial intelligence may be a demand side contributed to price pressures. So there's a lot of other factors besides just oil being high. And this is a global situation. I think we've seen other central banks around the globe move in to try to raise rates to try to combat global inflation pressures. But the real driver here is not going to be 25 basis points that's going to make this happening. I think you're going to need passive tightening from the bond market to try to get fiscal pressures, but it is not going to happen with 25 basis points.
Brian Pietrangelo [00:17:38]
Well, thank you for the conversation today, George, Steve, and Rajeev. We appreciate your perspectives. And before we close today's podcast, a final reminder that we've been cascading for the past few weeks is that we have our upcoming national client call next week on Tuesday, September 29th at 3 P.m., where we're going to discuss our outlook for the midterm election updates. George and Rajeev will be on the call together with our special guest, Libby Cantrell from PIMCO, to provide insights on those upcoming midterm elections and what they might mean for the markets and the economy. So again, if you'd like to join and you don't yet have an invitation, please reach out to your key bank relationship manager or contact to get that invitation again next week, Tuesday, September 29th at 3 P.m. Eastern. So thanks to our listeners for joining us today, and be sure to subscribe to the Key Wealth Matters podcast through your favorite podcast app. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results, and we know your financial situation is personal to you. So reach out to your relationship manager, portfolio strategist, or financial advisor for more information, and we'll catch up within next week to see how the world and the markets have changed and provide those keys to help you navigate your financial journey.
Disclosure [00:18:57]
We gather data and information from specialized sources and financial databases including but not limited to Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), Dow Jones / Dow Jones Newsplus, FactSet, Federal Reserve and corresponding 12 district banks / Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), ICE BofA (Bank of America) MOVE Index, Morningstar / Morningstar.com, Standard & Poor’s and Wall Street Journal / WSJ.com.
Key Wealth, Key Private Client, Key Private Bank, Key Family Wealth, and KeyBank Institutional Advisors are brand names used by KeyBank National Association (KeyBank). Key Wealth and Key Private Client are also brand names used by Key Investment Services LLC (KIS), member FINRA/SIPC and SEC-registered investment advisor.
The Key Wealth Institute is comprised of financial professionals representing KeyBank National Association (KeyBank) and certain affiliates, such as Key Investment Services LLC (KIS) and KeyCorp Insurance Agency USA Inc. (KIA).
Any opinions, projections, or recommendations contained herein are subject to change without notice, are those of the individual author(s), and may not necessarily represent the views of KeyBank or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates.
This material presented is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or product or to employ a specific investment or tax planning strategy.
KeyBank, nor its subsidiaries or affiliates, represent, warrant or guarantee that this material is accurate, complete or suitable for any purpose or any investor and it should not be used as a basis for investment or tax planning decisions. It is not to be relied upon or used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. It should not be construed as individual tax, legal or financial advice.
The summaries, prices, quotes and/or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. They are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to replace any confirmations or statements. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Brokerage and certain investment advisory services are offered through Key Investment Services LLC (KIS), member FINRA/SIPC and SEC-registered investment advisor. Insurance products are offered through KeyCorp Insurance Agency USA, Inc. (KIA) and underwritten by third party insurance carriers not affiliated with KIS. KIS and KIA are affiliates under the common control of KeyCorp. To learn more about KIS’s investment business, as well as our relationship with you, please review our KIS Disclosure page. Check the background of KIS on FINRA's BrokerCheck.
Non-Deposit products are:
NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE • NOT A DEPOSIT • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL OR STATE GOVERNMENT AGENCY