AWM Insights Financial and Investment News

In this episode of AWM Insights, Chief Investment Officer Justin Dyer and Portfolio Manager Mena Hanna break down the latest market volatility triggered by newly announced tariffs and a high-profile Supreme Court ruling. They discuss how these developments have injected uncertainty into the markets and share their expert perspective on why staying disciplined pays off for investors. The episode covers strategies for managing new cash during turbulent times, the benefits of diversification, and why a long-term game plan is essential for lasting financial success. Tune in for actionable advice and a grounded approach to navigating today's unpredictable investment landscape.

Chapters
(00:00) Uncertainty From Tariffs and Court Rulings
(01:40) Complications for Corporations and Trade
(02:30) Market Jitters and Investor Reaction
(04:00) Managing New Cash and Paychecks
(05:50) Staying Disciplined During Volatility
(06:50) Benefits of Diversification

Connect with Us
• Call or text us: 626-862-0355
• Website: https://www.athletefamilyoffice.com/
• YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc1NxpK21N1vKWEExC45YEA
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/awmcapital/
• Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/awmcapital/
• X: https://twitter.com/awmcapital
• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/awmcapital/

Creators and Guests

Host
Justin Dyer
Chief Investment Officer and Chief Operating Officer at AWM Capital
Host
Mena Hanna
Senior Investment Analyst at AWM Capital

What is AWM Insights Financial and Investment News?

A bite sized discussion on timely financial news and investment topics, to help you maximize your net worth and wealth for the next generation with Justin Dyer and Mena Hanna of AWM Capital.

Justin Dyer: Hey everyone.

Welcome back to another
episode of a WM Insights.

I'm your host, as always,
Justin Dyer, chief Investment

Officer here at a WM Capital.

Uh, also joined, uh, as well as
always by Mina Hana, portfolio

manager here at a WM Capital.

We're recording today's conversation
earlier in the week than we normally do.

Some scheduling, um, conflicts drove that,
but also, uh, I guess let's say timing.

Got lucky here to use the investment
analogy where, uh, the big news

on Trump's tariffs came out, uh,
and the Supreme Court ruling them

null and void came out on Friday.

Markets today, Monday are
reacting, uh, pretty significantly.

Um, you know, the, the, the
simple punchline here is, hey,

markets now have a huge dose of
uncertainty injected into them.

And, and markets just
don't like uncertainty.

And so today we're gonna
walk through what's going on.

Number one, just try to understand it all.

There's a lot of, uh, moving,
moving parts here, moving pieces.

But then also, hey, how do we think
about this from an individual?

Uh.

Investor perspective.

So, uh, Mina, let's jump right into it.

Can you give us, uh, as much as,
as much as we know right, uh, an

overview of what's going on here?

Mena Hanna: Yeah, there's, there's
a lot here, and I really did think

we left tariffs in 2025, but here
is kind of the, the 32nd pitch.

So on Friday, the Supreme Court
determined that many, if not

all of Trump's tariffs were.

Not legally admissible.

Um, and that the $200 billion of tariff
revenue was not collected properly.

So, uh, we kind of went back to
square one from a tariff standpoint.

Trump responded with a 10% blanket
tariff on Friday, which then,

uh, grew to a 15% blanket tariff.

There's also the corporate side,
which I think is super interesting.

A lot of these corporations that have had
to pay tariffs for the past year are now

going back to the US government and trying

Justin Dyer: Want their money back.

Mena Hanna: Yeah.

Trying to collect a piece of it.

Extremely complicated process.

We also don't know a lot of this.

We don't know what's going to happen with
previously agreed upon trade agreements.

We don't know what's
gonna happen with Yeah.

With a whole, whole slew of things.

But, uh, what we do know is
markets don't like uncertainty.

And we are definitely getting
a lot of that right now.

Justin Dyer: Yeah.

And you, you combine that
uncertainty with the jitters we had

uh,

probably over the last month
or so around ai, AI impact,

AI over investment, AI bubble.

Um, and, and we're, we're
combining all these forces.

Today, right.

This is my, uh, um, you know, I guess just
a limited understanding of this, and like

you said, markets don't like uncertainty.

And so when, when there's uncertainty,
general reaction is, is to sell.

Um, now, not from our standpoint, right?

That's not the strategy that we employ.

We're very long term.

We don't think you can time these things.

And again, using at least the 12, last 12
months in tariff, specifically, if you've.

uh,

If you've used that playbook sell when
there's some sort of uncertainty around

tariff policy that's been increased.

Right.

You know, liberation Day being
kind of the most infamous one,

that's been a losing strategy, but
in general, markets react, right?

This is, this is what we're
compensated over the long term for,

to deal with situations like this.

Now, the, the, the, the approach that we
take right, is let's have a plan ahead of

time to deal with periods of uncertainty.

This is.

A new period of uncertainty, different
set of circumstances, but markets

have these all the time, right?

That set that, that set of circumstances.

Is different, but it rhymes time and time
again, and we need to have a playbook.

So from a an individual investor
perspective, let's walk through kind of

just like high level, uh, playbook, right?

We can even start with, um, uh, the
season major league baseball seasons

right around the corner, right?

So paychecks are gonna start to hit.

Um, maybe signing bonuses already
did hit for people that, that

are in that, um, lucky category.

How do we go about.

Managing those situations.

Mena Hanna: Yeah, and really it's
deja vu kind of from last year.

If you got a signing bonus kind
of around this time last year,

and you were thoughtful with it.

You probably did extremely well.

I'll also kind of take
an ex extension of this.

Two of our clients were just in the
top 10 at the Genesis Invitational.

Like they obviously made
a good chunk of money.

That's actually very beneficial
to get capital inflows into your

account when markets are selling
off because you can deploy them and

kind of buy equities, especially
when they're on sale in a way So.

It's, it's benefic beneficial in general.

Now, you don't wanna just dump all your
money into the equity market right away.

You kind of have to take a more
holistic picture and figure out what

your needs are for the short term.

And this is why it's so important working
with your advisor, figuring out what

your priorities are, and then allocating
your capital towards your priorities

in an efficient and effective way.

But.

Justin Dyer: but

Mena Hanna: It is actually a good thing
I would say to, to get some money.

Get your paychecks,
get your signing bonus.

Get your bonus from a tournament
during periods like this because

you are buying things on sale when
the rest of the world is selling.

And this is really when you can
differentiate yourself from the rest

of the market, from the dentists and
doctors out there that are selling in

their 401(k)s and, and scared because
of, you know, potentially what they saw.

11 months ago.

Uh, if you take the opposite stance
and actually invest like a thoughtful

long-term investor, these are actually
periods where you can maybe make an extra

percent or two over the year because
your deployment, you're deploying when

the rest of the market is not deploying.

Justin Dyer: That's right.

Right.

It takes discipline, it takes having a
plan ahead of time and, and we know right.

Really as long-term investors,
generally, whether you're investing

today or you know, three, four days
ago when the market was slightly

higher, you're still gonna come out.

Okay.

But to your point, this is
actually an an opportune time.

And you didn't even control it, right?

You're just, you're just
following your disciplined path.

And we always like to say, control
what you can control, follow the plan,

stay disciplined, and you should be
set up for success way down the road.

Right?

That's true in any market environment.

But it's really, really important
to remind yourself that in, in

this current market environment
where volatility is heightened.

And also, I think it's also a
good reminder, we don't have to

go into great detail on this, but.

Diversification also matters here, right?

The, the bifurcation in market
performance, year to date

has been pretty substantial.

US underperforming quite a bit, and, um,
most listeners should know that we're very

much believers in global diversification
and, and that's benefited our portfolios

quite, quite a lot so far this year.

But also know that there, you're not just.

Investing all of that cash
into the US stock market.

You know, you're working with your
advisor, figuring out priorities and

allocating in a very thoughtful way.

So, um, that's super helpful.

That's talking through, um, you
know, cash to deploy, right?

It often feels really, really
difficult, I think is the right word

to put new money into the market.

There's always, um, uh, some sort of.

Activity or event or whatnot.

Or, or, or cause for concern.

And that's normal there.

There's a great old adage.

I love saying the market's.

Crawl or, uh, yeah, crawl or climb
a wall of worry and each and every

day that worry could be different.

This is a little bit of a heightened
worry, and we can understand that,

but it's also very much a good
time to invest for the long term.

So that's the, the, the either
new investor slash investor that

has cash coming in, what about
how do we just manage, um, manage

through this for existing investors?

Existing portfolios?

Mena Hanna: Yeah.

For existing investors.

You ideally have a plan that's in place
that can weather through these storms.

We don't know if this is going
to be kind of a one day event.

We don't know if this is gonna last for
a week or potentially, you know, uh.

Kind of backtracking
to Liberation Day 2025.

It was a couple weeks of, of
pretty serious volatility.

Um, so we don't know how long this event
is going to last for, but you need to

always be prepared to weather these
storms, whether they're a month like.

Justin Dyer: you know,

Mena Hanna: Liberation day, whether
they're a full year, like 2022 with

the spike in inflation and the,
the invasion of Ukraine and, and a

lot of, a lot of different things.

Um, you just need to have a plan
in place to weather the storm.

And if you are kind of building your boat
or preparing your house for the storm when

it's happening, it's already too late.

So it's, it's really important
to have a plan in place.

And not kind of do all of this when
things are getting crazy because

you're already too late and the
damage is probably done at that point.

Justin Dyer: Yeah, exactly.

Right.

And I think it's, it, it,
that's you're spot on.

I, I would just add to that point that.

the,

The house is built custom to you.

Yeah.

Right.

The boat is built custom
to you and your priorities.

Your priorities are, are protected
in an incredibly thoughtful,

high confidence manner.

And the, the part of your portfolio
that maybe is fluctuating during

times like this is built to do that.

Right.

We, we allocate there because we.

want Long-term growth.

In order to get long-term growth, we have
to go through periods of time like this.

Those two things are
inter interchangeable.

You have to take on risk to get the higher
return that equity markets, stock markets

actually provide you over the long term.

So I, I've said this, uh, I think a couple
times over the last couple months that.

Periods of time like this are healthy.

You know, the actual, the reason
and rationale behind why markets

are correcting or becoming volatile
again, changes each and every time.

Maybe that is healthy, maybe that isn't
healthy, the, the catalyst so to speak,

but markets having risk, not just
going up into the right in a flat line.

Is healthy actually.

And, and that's also a really great
reminder if you have that custom

house, that custom portfolio built
to support your unique needs,

which is that's exactly what we do.

Your priorities are protected, you
are protected, then you're, you're

actually better off in the, in the
long term by taking risk where risk

is appropriately taken, so to speak.

Mena Hanna: Definitely, and, and two
things that I'll also add, uh, one thing

that I really want to hit on is the market
might look completely red today in the us.

It's not completely read internationally.

You know, we were talking about
it before this call, uh, China,

Hong Kong, those markets are
up two, two point half percent.

That's a big day.

And our markets are down, you know,
a percent and a half roughly, um,

across all three major indices.

So that's a, that's a pretty big
swing in Delta in performance.

That's why you also take the diversified
approach and you don't just bet on one

horse, you ideally win no matter what.

Uh, you, you know, win.

When domestic markets are doing well,
when domestic markets are not doing

well, you also have another horse
that could ideally win you the race.

So that's, that's something that
if you're thoughtful on how you

actually build your portfolio.

You can potentially have positive
performance even when domestic markets are

negative in general or potentially flat.

Yeah.

Great reminder.

Yeah.

The, the other piece too, and we kind of
liken volatility to a storm, typically

after the storm, you know, you get
some nice weather, you get a rainbow

after if you actually look at it.

And, and this is kind of tied to some,
uh, some just hard evidence and hard data.

When the VIX is up, that is typically
when people are leaving the markets

and that's the worst time to actually

Justin Dyer: Yeah.

Vix being a measure of
volatility movement in the

Mena Hanna: the markets.

Yeah.

That is the volatility index.

And from that point on, typically
returns are higher because markets

recover and then markets ideally
stabilize and, and come back to there.

There's an element of mean
reversion there, so I kind of.

Liken markets to maybe batting
in, uh, batting in Denver.

Um, it, yeah.

After this happens, like your.

Yeah,

Average.

Your batting average is probably
significantly higher because

there's, there's a return to the
mean and you actually get even more

favorable, just dynamics in general.

So while everyone's running away from,
uh, batting in Denver, you should be,

you know, excited to bat in Denver
because you are expected returns and your

probabilities of success are typically
higher, especially over the long term.

Justin Dyer: Yeah.

During periods like this.

Yeah.

Cool.

Well, um, yeah, a lot, a lot going on.

Um, you know, so trying
to summarize this, right?

Markets don't like uncertainty.

We just got a whole bunch of additional
uncertainty injected into the market, but.

Our approach to investing is, is
prepared for situations like this.

You and your portfolio are built for
your unique needs and circumstances.

You're protected, and periods
like this actually are good for

your long-term outcomes, right?

We need periods like this, not necessarily
again, for, for, uh, the, the, the.

The psychological feel, right?

It doesn't feel great to go
through times of volatility.

It, it, it definitely doesn't.

But if we stick, take a step back, focus
on what we can control, stay disciplined,

um, ask questions for sure, but stick
to that plan because we know it works

over long periods of time, right?

We're, we are gonna be
better off for the long term.

So, um, that's kind of
the quick summary here.

Uh, hopefully this was
helpful lot going on.

If there are any specific
questions anyone has.

Shoot us a

Mena Hanna: Yeah, 6 2 6 8 6 2 0

Justin Dyer: 5 5.

Cool, and we'll wrap there.

Until next time, own your wealth,
make an impact, and always be a pro.

Thanks for listening.