Closing Market Report

In this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report, Greg Johnson of Total Grain Marketing highlights that the East Central Illinois soybean harvest is nearing 90% completion with strong yields, though early corn yields are falling 20 to 25 bushels short of last year's marks. Nationally, the USDA Crop Progress Report shows the soybean harvest making rapid gains, particularly in Minnesota, while the U.S. corn harvest lags slightly behind the five-year average. In agricultural news, a global diesel shortage is projected to extend into 2027, compounded by regional violence in the Middle East, alongside updates on federal pardons related to diesel emissions sensors under the Clean Air Act. Finally, World Weather Inc.'s Drew Lerner forecasts incoming rain and a season-ending freeze for parts of the U.S. Midwest, alongside a much-needed dry period for waterlogged crop regions in southern Brazil.

01:33 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing
09:52 Oct 13 Weekly Crop Progress Report
11:18 WILL TV to Air Morrow Plots 150th 7:30 Thursday
12:06 DEF Sensors, NOx Sensors, EPA, & Pardons
13:10 Saudi Arabia, Diesel Supplies, and Aramco
14:29 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc.

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Creators and Guests

Host

Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸

University of Illinois

What is Closing Market Report?

Established 1985

The Closing Market Report airs weekdays at 2:06pm central on WILL AM580, Urbana. University of Illinois Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason hosts the program. Each day he asks commodity analysts about the trade in Chicago, delves deep into the global growing regions weather, and talks with ag economists, entomologists, agronomists, and others involved in agriculture at the farm and industry level.

website: willag.org
twitter: @commodityweek

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01:33 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing
09:52 Oct 13 Weekly Crop Progress Report
11:18 WILL TV to Air Morrow Plots 150th 7:30 Thursday
12:06 DEF Sensors, NOx Sensors, EPA, & Pardons
13:10 Saudi Arabia, Diesel Supplies, and Aramco
14:29 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc.

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Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 14th of October, 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson; he’s from TGM. I’ll bring you up to speed on a really, really good work week across the Midwest and what harvest progress looks like. We’ll use USDA’s Crop Progress Report to tell us about that. We’ll turn our attention to diesel fuel this week and DEF. And then, as we finish up our time together, we’ll talk about the weather forecast, too. Drew Lerner will join us from World Weather Inc. in Kansas City to discuss how the week last week went, what it will look like in the coming days, and turn his attention to South America, all on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report. It comes to you from Illinois Public Media; it is public radio for the farming world.

announce: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day settled at $4.80 and three-quarters of a cent, down two cents. The March at $4.94 and a quarter, two and a quarter lower. And May corn at $5.00 a penny and three-quarters, down two and a quarter cents. November soybeans, $12.77 and a half a bushel, down six and a half. January, $12.92 and a half, down eight cents. Bean meal, $1.30 higher; bean oil, 96 cents lower. And soft red winter wheat up four cents at $6.73 and a quarter of a cent on this Wednesday afternoon.

01:33 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing

Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson from TGM now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hello, Greg, thanks much for being with us. Last week when I called you, you said this is a bean week. Is it still a bean week?

Greg Johnson: It’s been a bean week. People are trying to finish up ahead of the rain coming in tonight and tomorrow. I would say we’re probably getting close to 90% done on beans in our area. That last 10% obviously will take a while. There’s some fuller season beans, beans that got planted later, double crop beans, that type of thing, but for the most part, I think we’re going to be approaching 90% complete here in Champaign County and East Central Illinois by the time the rain hits.

Todd Gleason: Farmers in the area were very happy with their soybean yields when we spoke last week. Did that remain the same over the last seven days?

Greg Johnson: It did, it did. The bean yields continue to be two to three to four bushels better than last year, and last year was a good year. So farmers are very pleased with their bean yields. Lots of bean yields in the 70s, occasionally in the 80s, and once in a while in the 90s, actually. So that’s very good; farmers are very happy. And the price of soybeans is very good too, so we’ve got a good price and a good yield, and so farmers are very happy with beans. Unfortunately, we’re just now starting to get into corn as farmers switch over from beans to corn, and the good yields are not translating over into the corn. It seems like we are 20 to 25 bushels below last year. Now last year was a good year, so 20 to 25 bushels off of that I guess isn’t a disaster, but certainly not as good as what the bean yields were compared to last year. So corn yields are down 20 to 25 bushels so far. Now that was the early planted corn; maybe it pollinated during the heat is one theory, and maybe the later planted corn will have pollinated after that heat. We’ll have to wait and see, but we’re just getting a good start on the corn harvest, so maybe the early trend is not good. Maybe that later planted corn, like I say, will reverse that trend and come up with some better yields, but the jury is still out on that.

Todd Gleason: In Chicago, soybeans had been higher at one point. I take it that was led by export news?

Greg Johnson: Yes, USDA announced another half million metric tons sold to the Chinese, which is part of that 25 million metric tons that China has agreed to buy, and that half million gets us another half million closer to the 25 million goal. But that’s already baked into the USDA supply and demand forecast. So the question is not whether they’ll buy the 25 million or not; I think we all can agree that they will buy that. Will they buy more than that, and will they buy corn? And that’s the question that we don’t have the answer to yet.

Todd Gleason: Why was the soybean market unable to hang onto those gains from the export inspections?

Greg Johnson: I think the yields are one thing. Farmers are seeing that they’ve got 75 bushel beans to sell, and at these prices—even with the little sell-off we’ve had as a result of the two USDA reports the last couple of weeks, bean prices are still maybe 35, 40 cents off of contract highs, which is not bad. I prefer to think of it as we’re $1.75 off of the lows that we were at this summer. So you can either say we’re 35 cents off the high or we’re $1.75 off of the low, it’s a good price. If you multiply your bushels times today’s price, it’s all about revenue and those revenues more than cover the cost of soybeans. So I think that’s why farmers are a little bit more willing to sell beans than they are corn at this point.

Todd Gleason: For East Central Illinois, did basis for beans break very much given that we’re more than halfway through the soybean harvest for most people in the area now?

Greg Johnson: No, it really didn’t. What we saw break was the quick shipment premium. We knew that the crushers needed beans until the pipeline started to refill, so you had people paying quick shipment bids. If you can get me beans this week, a month ago, they were paying 50 cents, 60 cents over their fall bid. So the fall bid never really changed, but what changed was instead of paying 50 cents more for this week, it was 40 cents the next week and then 30 and then 20, and eventually they got to the fall bid. But the fall bid in and of itself never really did drop, and that’s a good indication that the export demand and the domestic demand has been very good for soybeans.

Todd Gleason: Has your August anticipated ability to store the full amount of the crop coming in changed very much, meaning are you adjusting along the way how much you think you’ll have on the ground?

Greg Johnson: It certainly appears that the market, the cash market, the export market, the rail market is full. And so we’re not really seeing really strong demand for corn or bean trains. Which means the market is telling us and other elevators and farmers, we want you to store that grain, we want it in January, February, March; there’s a good carry out to Jan, Feb, March, but we don’t need it all in October, November. So yeah, as a result of the weaker basis levels for this fall and the better carry in the market, I think we are looking at putting a little bit more corn on the ground than maybe what we would have estimated a month ago.

Todd Gleason: And you already mentioned weaker basis levels, how much has it broken? That tells everybody keep it where it is.

Greg Johnson: Yeah, I think the train market is probably a nickel cheaper than where it was two weeks ago on the corn. The bean market hasn’t really changed that much, it might be a few cents weaker, but the corn, a nickel in corn is a pretty good drop for this time of year. So that’s a pretty good indication that the pipeline is pretty well full at this point.

Todd Gleason: Hey, thanks much. We’ll talk with you again next week.

Greg Johnson: Thank you, Todd.

Todd Gleason: You’re welcome. That’s Greg Johnson; he is with TGM, Total Grain Marketing at the elevator here in Champaign County owned by FS Growmark.

09:52 Oct 13 Weekly Crop Progress Report

Todd Gleason: Now let’s take a look at the weekly Crop Progress Report from the United States Department of Agriculture released yesterday afternoon nationwide. It shows 33% of the corn harvest has been completed as of Sunday. It’s 10 points ahead of the week prior, but six points behind the five-year average. The U.S. soybean harvest jumped advancing 21 points over the week to 46% complete. Normally, it’s about 50% complete by this time. Minnesota led the way there with farmers combining 43% of the state’s soybean acreage in just seven days. That jumped it from 25% the week before to 68% complete in Minnesota. Nebraska activity resumed as well; it moved up from 9% to 26%. Still, Nebraska is way behind its 55% five-year average. Corn harvest there is at 27%. It too is behind its five-year average of 35%, so just eight points down. In Iowa, the harvest is rain-delayed still but catching up. Soybean harvest pushed 26 points higher in the single week from 5% to 31%. Corn harvest doubled to 14%. Still, it’s 20 points behind its 34% average. And in our home state of Illinois, things are ahead of schedule with corn harvest 51% complete. The five-year average is 44%. Soybean harvest is on pace.

11:18 WILL TV to Air Morrow Plots 150th 7:30 Thursday

Todd Gleason: This year marks the 150th anniversary of the Morrow Plots. That’s the oldest continuous agricultural research field in the Americas. For a century and a half, this soil has held the secrets of feeding a growing planet right in the heart of downstate Illinois. Discover the legacy buried in our own backyard on the next episode of Prairie Fire. Join us as we celebrate 150 years of the Morrow Plots. Watch Prairie Fire this Thursday, October the 15th at 7:30 p.m. Central on WILL TV or stream it on demand on YouTube and the PBS app. Prairie Fire, the stories of downstate Illinois.

12:06 DEF Sensors, NOx Sensors, EPA, & Pardons

Todd Gleason: In today’s agricultural news, last night in Alaska, President Donald Trump at a rally announced he was or already had pardoned at least three people convicted of violating the Clean Air Act. The count from the U.S. Department of Justice is seven, three of which are from Alaska. Each had been complicit in an action to remove DEF or diesel exhaust fluid emissions sensors. U.S. EPA earlier this year, during a White House event with farmers and truckers, announced it had removed the DEF sensor requirement. While that is true, it actually relaxed the requirement by allowing NOx sensors in their place. EPA also affirmed during that same March event that the approved NOx sensors’ based software updates could be installed on existing engines without being treated as illegal tampering under the Clean Air Act. It does, however, remain illegal under the Clean Air Act to remove or bypass the exhaust system sensors entirely.

13:10 Saudi Arabia, Diesel Supplies, and Aramco

Todd Gleason: In a related diesel fuel story, the global diesel shortage triggered by the Iran war is now expected to persist well into 2027. That according to the International Energy Agency. Against this backdrop of tight supplies, the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh has been overshadowed by regional violence. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis launched deadly strikes on the nearby international airport, killing 13 people and wounding over 300 over the weekend. The attacks prompted top executives from BP, Exxon Mobil, Shell, Chevron, and TotalEnergies to withdraw from the conference agenda, addressing the remaining delegates in Saudi Arabia. Aramco CEO warned that attacks on the regional infrastructure severely threaten global stability and stressed that because the Middle East holds over 90% of the world’s spare oil capacity, the violence directly intensifies the ongoing squeeze on international crude and diesel markets. And that’s a look at today’s agricultural news.

14:29 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc.

Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the weather forecast. We’re joined by Drew Lerner at World Weather Inc. in Kansas City. Drew, as we just heard from the USDA’s Crop Progress Report, last week farmers in Minnesota managed to harvest 43% of the state’s soybean acreage in just seven days. An incredible number, but what we’d really like to know is how the week last week went across the Midwest and what it might look like in the coming weeks.

Drew Lerner: Yeah, the last week has been really very nice across a big part of the Midwest. We’ve had some warming tendencies take place, a lot of sunshine, and the humidity has been down, and it’s been good for a lot of folks. You know, the week before that, we were suffering from high relative humidity and we were having trouble getting into the fields very quickly in the day, and this was a great contrast. In the outlook here, it looks like conditions may deteriorate just a little bit because we do have a couple of weather systems coming up, so it won’t be quite as rosy as it was last week. We have tropical moisture working its way northeastward out of the southern plains, and that is going to bring moisture into a fair amount of the lower and eastern parts of the Midwest here over the next two days. We already saw one wave of energy move through a part of this region in the last 24 hours, and then we’re going to bring some cooler air in from Canada, and that’s going to set off a second round of precipitation. So between now and probably Saturday afternoon, we’re going to have a couple of waves of energy impacting many areas from Nebraska, Oklahoma, and even parts of Texas and Kansas all the way into the Great Lakes region and the Ohio River Basin. But it’s not unusual to have an event, and it looks like it’s going to be followed by several days of dry weather and then we’ll see another storm system at mid to late week actually. So it’s not a bad scenario, it’s just not going to be quite as perfect as it was last week.

Todd Gleason: Will things be cooler than it has been, and does anybody get a really cold area where they might have to worry about the season ending?

Drew Lerner: Yeah, we are going to see frost and freezes occur across a large part of the northern plains and into the Midwest. It’ll be a quickie, one of those deals where we have just a couple of nights of very cool conditions with temperatures in the 30s and some 20s up near the Canada border. It will be a bit of a shock for everybody because we’ve been so warm for so long, but outside of that, a lot of these crops are ready to have a freeze and we need to end the growing season for some folks. I think this will be really helpful in speeding along the maturation and harvest process. For all practical purposes, even though we don’t like to get cold when we’re out there sitting on the tractor seat, this will actually be a helpful thing I think in the long run. It will rain with this cool air mass coming in, and we might even see a little bit of light snow across some of the Great Lakes region and upper Midwest, but none of that’s going to amount to much.

Todd Gleason: And in the last week of the month, what do you see?

Drew Lerner: We’ll go back into another period here where we’ll have some unsettled conditions. Just a couple of frontal systems will show up in that last week of the month and we’ll get another couple of shots of energy moving across the region, but it’ll warm up ahead of each one of the fronts and be coolish behind it. It’s really not a bad scenario. We’ll call it near to above normal on temperatures for an average, and precipitation will probably be normal to maybe a little bit below normal especially in the northern plains and upper Midwest, might be a little bit wetter from Kansas into the Great Lakes region like we’ve been here recently. Not a bad scenario, I don’t believe.

Todd Gleason: Turn your attention to crops in South America for me.

Drew Lerner: The biggest thing that’s going on in South America has been the crazy amounts of rain that just seem like they’re never going to stop, but they actually will soon. In southern Brazil, we are saturated down about three feet now into the ground. This is for a small part of southern Paraguay, southwestern Paraná, and neighboring areas of southern Mato Grosso do Sul. We’ve got about one more day, maybe a day and a half of additional rain in this area, and then starting late Thursday, more likely Friday, we’ll see dry weather for about five days. That’s going to be so important because they are seeing some flood conditions now, and if it rains anymore without some drying, it’ll turn into a real mess, so this is a well-timed break. I will point out that the wheat crop in southern Brazil has been damaged by all the wet weather, and with the wet weather coming back in the second half of next week into the following weekend, that process will resume again. So not so good for the wheat crop, but from a corn and soybean perspective, I suppose the break in the weather will be extremely important. I don’t think we’ve lost much acreage yet, but if it keeps raining like it has, there is going to be a need for replanting I think in some areas. Farther north in center-west Brazil and in northeastern Brazil, there’s going to be some timely shower activity as we move forward through the next 10 days. I think it’s going to really be a big plus for a lot of producers who are still planting, and those areas that have already been planted, we’ll see some quick germination and emergence and a really well-established crop coming up. Keep in mind that as we put more of this crop in the ground nice and early like this, that means it is going to get harvested early, and that safrinha corn crop is going to get planted quickly as well. So we’re kind of setting the stage for the next six months in Brazil, and it’s looking pretty good at the moment.

Todd Gleason: Anything out of Argentina before we return to the United States to check in on the winter wheat growing regions and how sowing progress is moving through the U.S.? So start in Argentina.

Drew Lerner: Yeah, I think for Argentina, everything is looking pretty good. They’ve had some timely rain here recently. The biggest issue in Argentina is more in minor production areas in the northwest and west-central parts of the country where the moisture profile is still pretty low and there’s a need for precipitation, but these are not major wheat production areas and they’re not major corn or soybean areas either. If you’re looking for a problem, that’s where you got to go to find it. I think most of Argentina is poised to do really well as we go forward through these next few weeks. I see alternating periods of rain and sunshine continuing, so it should be a good year, and that’s usually the case when you’re dealing with El Niño.

Todd Gleason: And finally, the winter wheat growing regions of the United States.

Drew Lerner: Yep, for them, we started to get hot and dry again here in the past week or so, a lot of 80 and 90-degree temperatures out there really taking a lot of moisture back out of the soil. But I think the only place where dryness has been a real serious problem is Oklahoma, and just last night they picked up on some significant rain in parts of the state and we’re going to see more of that in the next 24 to 36 hours. We’ll take a little bit of a break for a few days so the farmers can get in the fields and plant more aggressively there, and then we’ll bring back another round of rain as we get into next week. So it’s a pretty good scenario for Oklahoma to improve. Kansas is in pretty good shape in general, and they will get caught up in some of this alternating rain and sunshine as well. Nebraska and Colorado doing all right, and all these areas could still benefit from a little bit of moisture, and they’re going to get it I think as time goes along.

Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, I appreciate it.

Drew Lerner: You betcha, have a great week.

Todd Gleason: You too. Drew Lerner is with World Weather Inc.; he’s in Kansas City, joined us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report. Came to you from Illinois Public Media; it is public radio for the farming world, online, on demand at willag.org.

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