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Exploring the frontiers of Technology and AI
Josh:
One of the most famous investors in the world, Peter Thiel, he wrote a book called Zero to One.
Josh:
Some of you might have heard it, some of you may have not, but it's all about
Josh:
monopolies and how much of an advantage having a monopoly has in the world.
Josh:
Now, what we've seen recently is a company named NVIDIA reaching a $5 trillion
Josh:
monopoly. It's the biggest monopoly to ever exist in business, and it's huge.
Josh:
It's made tons of people, infinite amounts of money, but something is happening.
Josh:
Something is wrong. It appears as if that monopoly is starting to slip out of their hands.
Josh:
And in this episode, we're going to talk about why and what that means for the entire market.
Josh:
I mean, when you're a $5 trillion asset, the size of your company makes a meaningful impact on the market.
Josh:
So when a company like NVIDIA loses hundreds of billions of dollars over a short
Josh:
period of time like the last month, we got to start paying attention to this
Josh:
because it's dragging everything else down with it.
Josh:
So up here on the screen, we have some charts that I want us to walk through
Josh:
EJS. So if you could just kind of show us the difference between NVIDIA and
Josh:
who we believe to be the competition that is responsible for knocking these
Josh:
hundreds of billions of dollars off their market cap.
Ejaaz:
Yeah, so this really scary looking red chart that you have in front of you is
Ejaaz:
the last month's performance for NVIDIA stock. And it is down a staggering rate.
Ejaaz:
13, almost 14%, which equates to over $500 billion of market cap loss.
Ejaaz:
That's a billion with a B, which is just an insane amount of money for the largest
Ejaaz:
company or stock company in the world to lose.
Ejaaz:
So the obvious question that comes in is why and where's that market,
Ejaaz:
where's that money kind of flowing towards?
Ejaaz:
Well, I want to show you another chart, Josh, which is Google's chart.
Ejaaz:
And do you notice a similarity?
Ejaaz:
Over the last month, it is up almost the same amount in percentage market cap
Ejaaz:
for a very peculiar reason, or maybe it's not so peculiar.
Ejaaz:
Josh, have you heard of these? You've heard of these things called TPUs, right?
Josh:
We're talking about this. Oh, there's no things called TPUs.
Ejaaz:
Yeah. There's no things called TPUs. You know, Josh and I like to kind of go
Ejaaz:
back and forth and discuss this a lot.
Ejaaz:
In fact, we actually put out a bull episode on Google, which a bunch of you
Ejaaz:
watched a few weeks back. and I don't want to be running victory laps here,
Ejaaz:
but it turned out that Josh and I might have been onto something.
Ejaaz:
But I want to dumb down what's going on here, showed by this really hilarious
Ejaaz:
graphic or comic from the semi-analysis team.
Ejaaz:
And it basically goes, Google came out with this new rock, new shiny rock called TPU version seven.
Ejaaz:
It's basically their version of NVIDIA's GPUs, but it's built by themselves in-house.
Ejaaz:
And it's actually really, really good. It gives you an average of 30% to 50%
Ejaaz:
cost savings for the exact same performance or equivalent of an NVIDIA GPU.
Ejaaz:
And it, in some cases, performs even better, up to one and a half to two times better, right?
Ejaaz:
And so you've got NVIDIA in the leather jacket here on the right,
Ejaaz:
which says, actually, my ROC, my GPU is faster, right? And Google's like, is that true?
Ejaaz:
And then everyone ends up using Google's TPUs. And the point being made here
Ejaaz:
is for the longest time, Josh, NVIDIA held the monopoly on the AI training and
Ejaaz:
inference market via their GPUs.
Ejaaz:
It's all anyone and everyone could use to train their models.
Ejaaz:
It was the only option that they had. And now Google presents a real threat
Ejaaz:
to NVIDIA's market dominance by presenting these TPUs.
Ejaaz:
Now, initially, they use these TPUs to train their own model in-house.
Ejaaz:
In fact, Google's never purchased NVIDIA GPUs to train their own models,
Ejaaz:
and yet they have the best models, which tells us that the TPUs is something
Ejaaz:
to really contend with NVIDIA's GPUs.
Ejaaz:
But most recently, Josh, they've started selling these to other companies,
Ejaaz:
supposedly, to train their own models. And so we're reaching a point now where
Ejaaz:
Google and NVIDIA is a direct comparison.
Ejaaz:
And we're seeing that in the market share dynamics that are happening now.
Ejaaz:
You know, you've got NVIDIA losing up to $500 billion and Google gaining the
Ejaaz:
same amount over the same month. It's just pretty insane to see.
Josh:
Yeah, I can't stress this enough, how insane that delta between the two stock charges.
Josh:
That's 26% combined in one month. So the market is really pricing in the fact
Josh:
that this monopoly is starting to crumble.
Josh:
Now, I think we have reasoning why that's not necessarily the case.
Josh:
That will come later in the episode.
Josh:
But for now, there is some real forces at play. I mean, EJs,
Josh:
you were talking about them selling TPUs.
Josh:
This morning, I saw Morgan Stanley make this announcement. They said about every
Josh:
half a million TPUs Google sells can add about 13 billion in revenue.
Josh:
And Google is planning to sell 12 million of those over the next two years.
Josh:
So it's a significant amount of revenue that Google can expect to come down the pipe.
Josh:
And it's the first time that we're really starting to see a legitimate competitor
Josh:
to the NVIDIA GPU cluster. Now, that's not to say the GPU is done for.
Josh:
There's a lot of competitive advantages to a GPU.
Josh:
I suspect they're not going anywhere, but there is now...
Josh:
Another market force at play. And when we see a market force kind of cutting
Josh:
in, it starts to price cascade and the monopoly slowly starts to fade.
Josh:
I do want to give a brief history lesson, E.J. on the history of Google and
Josh:
their AI program, because what a lot of people don't understand is Google really
Josh:
is the godfather of AI from the beginning of time to now.
Josh:
And they've just had this problem where they haven't been able to actually build
Josh:
products that scale or sell products to users.
Josh:
But they've been doing this since all the way back in 2011.
Josh:
And what we're seeing here is the original paper that a lot of people would
Josh:
conceive to be the first time that a neural network proved that it was work.
Josh:
And they trained a massive unsupervised model on 16,000 CPU cores.
Josh:
This was before GPUs existed on random YouTube frames.
Josh:
They didn't use any labels. They use no supervision. And then one neuron spontaneously
Josh:
learned the concept of a cat.
Josh:
So this seems so stupid. It's like, oh my God, it can recognize a cat.
Josh:
But this was the first time in history a machine was able to identify something
Josh:
without explicitly written instructions.
Josh:
And that moment inside Google set off a light bulb that eventually led to them
Josh:
creating Google Brain, which was enough of a breakthrough for them to start
Josh:
creating AI inside of their in-house system.
Josh:
So EJS, if you remember Google Translate, which has been around seemingly forever,
Josh:
Google Translate is a result of AI.
Josh:
That was an early test implementation of Google Translate. And what that actually
Josh:
enabled is they could suggest to sponsors...
Josh:
Or advertisers on the platform, which companies are more likely to click,
Josh:
which users are more likely to click. And that created the whole AdSense model.
Josh:
It created, oftentimes when you type into Google search, it'll autocomplete for you.
Josh:
These were all very early versions of AI before we even realized what AI was,
Josh:
which led to the invention of the TPU almost nine years ago.
Josh:
And the TPU is this vertically integrated chip that we see today taking over
Josh:
basically the entire world, one company at a time now.
Josh:
So they've been doing this. I mean, a lot of people don't realize the TPU has
Josh:
been around for nine years now that they've been iterating.
Josh:
We're currently up to version seven, which is the Ironwood TPU.
Josh:
And it's just this incredible testament to the fact that Google actually has
Josh:
been doing this for over a decade now, almost 15 years.
Josh:
And we're finally starting to see the fruits of their labor grow and be exposed
Josh:
in public markets. And my God, it's explosive.
Ejaaz:
It is insane that, you know, they've been working on this for over a decade, right?
Ejaaz:
And like that compounded value is really starting to show now because like,
Ejaaz:
I'm guessing like everyone back in the day was just kind of like,
Ejaaz:
what is this machine learning thing?
Ejaaz:
Like, I can't imagine any kind of like a chatbot being beneficial to us
Ejaaz:
and then fast forward to 2022 chat gpc goes viral
Ejaaz:
and suddenly everyone's kind of raving about gpus and google's kind of
Ejaaz:
like quietly smirking and smiling not buying any of nvidia's gpus being like
Ejaaz:
hey we invested in this a decade ago and it's finally paying off which is just
Ejaaz:
kind of uh insane to to think about and like josh like they came up with the
Ejaaz:
transformer as well right which
Ejaaz:
is like 2017 architecture exactly for this alarm so super cool to see.
Ejaaz:
Now, I want to kind of like step aside and kind of frame the narrative for what
Ejaaz:
we're about to discuss right now.
Ejaaz:
We're talking about Google versus NVIDIA, and there's many different ways that
Ejaaz:
we can kind of compare the two, right?
Ejaaz:
The most obvious one is through TPUs versus GPUs that you mentioned.
Ejaaz:
And one of the biggest questions that I think listeners have on their mind,
Ejaaz:
Josh, is like, okay, well, if Google's going to compete with NVIDIA, where's the proof?
Ejaaz:
Like, who are they selling this stuff to?
Ejaaz:
Like, surely they can't be selling to any major competitors,
Ejaaz:
right? Surely they can't be selling to major companies.
Ejaaz:
So can they actually really compete? And I just have one article I want to share
Ejaaz:
with you, one little tweet.
Ejaaz:
You might have heard of Meta or Zuckerberg, who is rumored to be spending tens
Ejaaz:
of billions of dollars in 2026 on Google's CPUs to train their llama or big
Ejaaz:
llama models coming up in the future.
Ejaaz:
Now, of course, you're not too unfamiliar with Meta's kind of progress recently,
Ejaaz:
or rather their spending budget.
Ejaaz:
They've spent, I think, to the effect of $25 billion this year just to hire talent,
Ejaaz:
to train the model we haven't even seen the model uh to
Ejaaz:
begin with so the fact that they're planning on using google's infrastructure
Ejaaz:
uh supposedly to train their models is is
Ejaaz:
no easy feat and so you might be wondering well like why why would they choose
Ejaaz:
tpus over nvidia's gpus that's kind of like the standard kind of framework to
Ejaaz:
to go down well i just want to show you the scaling chart which basically shows
Ejaaz:
that uh the tpu which is google's um infrastructure their gpu versus the GB300,
Ejaaz:
which is NVIDIA's latest GPU,
Ejaaz:
There's a significant cost difference, right?
Ejaaz:
If you were to use Google's TPUs, the IronWord TPU v7, you would save 30 to
Ejaaz:
50%, depending on the amount of TPUs that you would use,
Ejaaz:
in training your model. Now, when you consider that Meta's CapEx spend for the
Ejaaz:
next year, I believe is going to be something along the lines of $67 to $85 billion.
Ejaaz:
That is a lot of cost saving if you are able to use Google's TPU.
Ejaaz:
So from an economical sense, it makes a hell of a load of sense, right?
Ejaaz:
And then the other thing I was thinking about, Josh, is why would Meta kind
Ejaaz:
of use Google's TPUs for their own systems, right? Aren't they directly competing?
Ejaaz:
Well, there's a secret kind of detail that I learned about this.
Ejaaz:
The way that Google's TPUs are designed makes it really performant for something
Ejaaz:
called recommender systems.
Ejaaz:
Now, a recommender system is the system that is used behind ads,
Ejaaz:
behind social media algorithms.
Ejaaz:
Meta is arguably one of the biggest companies which uses these things.
Ejaaz:
So if they can have a hyper-performant TPU, train the AI model to use on their
Ejaaz:
own social media platform that will make it inevitably better
Ejaaz:
30 to 50 percent less cost, it seems like a complete no-brainer.
Ejaaz:
And if you add this deal to the Anthropic deal that are purchasing 1 million
Ejaaz:
TPUs from Google, as well as another deal that we're about to talk about,
Ejaaz:
that's just insane. Don't you think that's pretty insane, right?
Josh:
Yeah. And going back to that chart that you just brought up earlier,
Josh:
which shows the cost difference, like if you're a big AI company spending billions on training models,
Josh:
Google is now offering a system that can cost only 25 to 50
Josh:
cents for every dollar you'd spend on NVIDIA's best hardware
Josh:
and that is a huge deal because i mean
Josh:
when it comes down to it cost per compute cost per unit of compute
Josh:
and training is so large when you're at the scale of these companies
Josh:
spending tens of hundreds of billions of dollars that 25 50 of the cost is massive
Josh:
and granted like you said they're not good for everything but if you're a company
Josh:
like meta who's building suggestion algorithms that's particularly good for
Josh:
this is a no-brainer and it seems to me like now the only threshold will be
Josh:
how quick can google actually create these manufacture them spin them up,
Josh:
put them in server racks and get them online so people can start using them.
Josh:
Because this unlocks a whole new use case for AI that we haven't seen in the
Josh:
past that we'll see now because of
Josh:
the lower cost and also the increased efficiency of these Ironwood TPUs.
Josh:
And Google's innovating quick, man. I mean, each one of these TPUs is coming
Josh:
out every single year and each one is significantly better than the last.
Ejaaz:
Every 500k TPUs that Google sell adds 10% to their 2027 Google Cloud Rev and
Ejaaz:
3% to their at 2027 earnings per share.
Ejaaz:
That is insane. So they don't need to sell. Yeah, $13 billion.
Ejaaz:
They don't need to sell near as much GPUs as NVIDIA sells. They just need to sell a couple hundred K.
Ejaaz:
And if this is just one deal that they're cementing with Meta,
Ejaaz:
can you imagine how much revenue they're just going to churn from this?
Ejaaz:
It was rumored that the Anthropic deal, where they're selling around,
Ejaaz:
I think it's a couple hundred TPUs to them, is going to earn them $50 billion.
Ejaaz:
Next year just to train Anthropics kind of like next forward model.
Ejaaz:
So just kind of insane to see.
Ejaaz:
There is a counter thesis to this deal, which is, you know, I'm going to put
Ejaaz:
my tinfoil hat on here, Josh, which is Meta's kind of doing this so that they
Ejaaz:
can negotiate better terms with NVIDIA
Ejaaz:
or AMD to kind of get like better chip deals saying, hey, look,
Ejaaz:
we'll go with Google unless you guys give us a cheaper kind of route.
Ejaaz:
I think this is kind of like conspiracy theory.
Ejaaz:
I mean, the metrics around Google's GPUs kind of prove themselves.
Ejaaz:
But it's just something to keep in mind. I don't want to get too much into my bold thesis here.
Josh:
I was going through a lot of the deals that we're surfacing today.
Josh:
One of them being with Foxconn and Google, where now Foxconn is responsible
Josh:
for building 1,000 server racks a week.
Josh:
Next year, they're doing 2,000 server racks a week.
Josh:
There was an announcement earlier today where Google is now partnering with
Josh:
AWS, the cloud server, to provide more infrastructure.
Josh:
So we're starting to see, again, more of these deals that are happening around
Josh:
the Google TPU world, which is super fascinating.
Josh:
And then this leads to the final point, which is the head of AI infrastructure
Josh:
in a meeting from a few months ago saying that,
Josh:
Google must double AI compute every six months to meet its demand.
Josh:
So there is no shortage of demand. There is no shortage of infrastructure.
Josh:
There is no shortage of support to get these TPUs out to the world.
Josh:
And what we're going to start to see is how big of an impact this really does
Josh:
have on a company like NVIDIA now that there is someone else in the market.
Josh:
There is a second seller for a company like Meta who wants to build massive AI systems.
Ejaaz:
You could argue one of the most obvious bull signals to purchasing or investing
Ejaaz:
in Google stock was the fact that Berkshire Hathaway bought a three and a half
Ejaaz:
billion dollar stake in Google literally a couple of weeks ago.
Ejaaz:
And then, funnily enough, the leaked information around them selling TPUs to
Ejaaz:
Meta and them striking this deal with NATO kind of like surfaced, right?
Ejaaz:
So there's a lot of momentum behind Google right now.
Ejaaz:
There's a lot of big, valuable investors and kind of infrastructure providers
Ejaaz:
getting behind the Google train right The momentum is palpable, to say the least, right?
Ejaaz:
And this NATO deal is another example of it, right? Like, we're going from the
Ejaaz:
hyperscaler kind of consumer level to the government level as well.
Ejaaz:
So all types of organizations are treating this with a very high importance
Ejaaz:
that Google is going to play an inevitably big role here.
Ejaaz:
So then that begs the question, well, what's NVIDIA going to do about this?
Ejaaz:
Are they just going to continue losing hundreds of billions of dollars in their
Ejaaz:
market cap? Or are they going to strike back?
Ejaaz:
And there's two frames of thought about this, Josh. Number one is,
Ejaaz:
so NVIDIA's next generation of GPUs is going to be around the Rubin architecture.
Ejaaz:
It's called Rubin, right?
Ejaaz:
They introduced a new spec, Josh, after Google's TPUs, their latest TPUs got
Ejaaz:
released, which upped a lot of the watts or compute performance for the Rubin architecture.
Ejaaz:
Now, some might say this is just coincidental, but some might say this is a
Ejaaz:
general reaction to the fact that Google just has a higher performance TPU versus theirs.
Ejaaz:
And so they needed to kind of like up the metrics of their next generation if
Ejaaz:
they wanted to compete and appear attractive to their competitors or to their customers themselves.
Ejaaz:
But then there's also the argument where it's just kind of like NVIDIA and Google
Ejaaz:
are kind of playing in kind of like different ballpark and they already know
Ejaaz:
this. They're playing different games.
Ejaaz:
The argument here in this tweet being that Google's TPUs are great,
Ejaaz:
but they're only for very specific niche use cases. If you have, you mentioned earlier,
Ejaaz:
the recommendation or search algorithm, then, you know, these ASICs are going to be really good.
Ejaaz:
The benefit of NVIDIA's GPUs is that they're highly generalizable.
Ejaaz:
So if you wanted to train a model in a different way or test out a new method
Ejaaz:
to kind of like inference or train your model, GPUs are by far the best architecture
Ejaaz:
or the best infrastructure to use.
Ejaaz:
So you could argue that Google, that, sorry, NVIDIA is sitting pretty comfy.
Ejaaz:
And Jensen went on a show or an interview this week, basically saying that he's
Ejaaz:
not worried about Google. Obviously, you expect him to say that,
Ejaaz:
but mainly for the fact that this is a positive sum game.
Ejaaz:
You know, Jevon's paradox, if you create more GPUs, it's not going to be a fact
Ejaaz:
that you have oversupply. There's just going to be increased demand for compute.
Ejaaz:
And I think Jensen knows this, and that's why he's just kind of running forward.
Ejaaz:
The fact of the matter is, there isn't enough NVIDIA GPUs to supply the customers,
Ejaaz:
even if you wanted to, right?
Ejaaz:
He needs to ramp up infrastructure production. That's why he's been visiting
Ejaaz:
TSMC for the last couple of weeks. So I think he knows this and I don't think
Ejaaz:
he's too worried, but he's definitely sweating a little. I don't know if you think the same.
Josh:
Yeah, no, I mean, I'm sure it sucks. It's like you were just running the show
Josh:
and now suddenly there's someone else who has a good product.
Josh:
It's not to say that it's going to harm the company too much.
Josh:
And I think for anyone who's listening, if you take away one thing from this
Josh:
episode, it's that both of these companies are going to succeed wildly.
Josh:
And there is going to be a shortage of supply for compute for a very long time.
Josh:
If you believe that AI is as impressive and as important as a technology as
Josh:
it really is, then you also have to believe that all of the compute around us
Josh:
must be replaced by it and must have it embedded inside of it.
Josh:
In order to do so, you need to shift the entire technological infrastructure
Josh:
of all the hardware that exists over to infrastructure that supports AI.
Josh:
Everything. And we are just a fraction of a percentage through that transition.
Josh:
So as a result, there could be many more Googles, many more NVIDIAs,
Josh:
and there would still be a shortage.
Josh:
Now, the question becomes, is there a short-term bubble? Are we overspending?
Josh:
That is to be determined, but this is a good type of bubble.
Josh:
This is one that even if it does explode, we are left with unbelievable technology
Josh:
across the board and a scaling infrastructure that will continue to be able
Josh:
to support this new type of technology that's permeating throughout society.
Josh:
So is this a good thing yes is nvidia going
Josh:
to suffer maybe sure the headlines suck it's like okay
Josh:
we're not the coolest person in the world now there's someone else who's like also a
Josh:
cool kid but they're still going to continue to produce
Josh:
the best products in the world and i just to the point that you made
Josh:
earlier they're just different types of chips like um a
Josh:
gpu is very different than a tpu and a
Josh:
lot of people also need to understand that the whole
Josh:
world isn't actually training ai there's still a lot of other things that are
Josh:
happening like graphics or simulation or financial technology
Josh:
scientific research tpus just don't do
Josh:
that and gpus do so there's there's a lot more
Josh:
going on to the story there's a lot more gpus being sold there's a lot of tpus
Josh:
there's enough for everybody and then there's still not enough for everybody
Josh:
so i think in the long run like this is just great for both companies this is
Josh:
positive some uh there's a lot of excitement around this rightfully so because
Josh:
i think it's it's great there's another person stepping in but it's not the
Josh:
end of of anyone it's just the beginning for for so many of these companies still i.
Ejaaz:
Mean like don't take your and my opinions either, right? Why don't you just
Ejaaz:
listen to one of the smartest men or smartest businessmen? Oh, we got Elon.
Ejaaz:
Yeah, we got Elon. And he was asked this question in this interview clip that I'm about to show.
Ejaaz:
This was released yesterday where he was asked, Elon, if you had to invest in
Ejaaz:
any AI companies today and hold it for a decade, what would you buy?
Ejaaz:
And you think, you know, Elon would shill his own companies.
Ejaaz:
He didn't. He shilled two companies, Josh, Google and NVIDIA. Let me show you a clip.
Ejaaz:
I think, you know, Google is going are gonna be pretty valuable in the future.
Ejaaz:
They've laid the groundwork for,
Ejaaz:
an immense amount of value creation from an AI standpoint.
Ejaaz:
NVIDIA is obvious at this point.
Ejaaz:
I mean, there's an argument that companies that do AI and robotics and maybe
Ejaaz:
space flight are gonna be overwhelmingly all the value, almost all the value.
Ejaaz:
So the output of goods and services from AI and robotics is so high that it
Ejaaz:
will dwarf everything else.
Ejaaz:
And so, you know, you hear it there from Selfway is basically describing NVIDIA
Ejaaz:
as a sort of toll collector because you kind of like need to basically pay the
Ejaaz:
toll man for his GPUs to get access to the intelligence that you're trying to build.
Ejaaz:
And then Google's mode is kind of similar but quite different in the sense that
Ejaaz:
they create the GPUs, their own TPUs, but they also like kind of own dominance
Ejaaz:
across the entire AI stack, right, Josh?
Ejaaz:
And just to kind of maybe like round things up, I was looking at these crazy
Ejaaz:
charts from the Financial Times this week,
Ejaaz:
which basically showed that Google's Gemini model has now almost caught up in
Ejaaz:
the number of users or monthly downloads that ChatGPT has,
Ejaaz:
which is just insane. That's the chart that we see here on the left.
Ejaaz:
And then on the right, which I found the most interesting, is the amount of
Ejaaz:
time that each Gemini user is spending on the app using the Gemini model has now beaten ChatGPT.
Ejaaz:
This kind of blew my mind because I was like, surely everyone's still using
Ejaaz:
ChatGPT because people tend to use ChatGPT for their own personalized things.
Ejaaz:
They kind of like confer it, therapy, ask about personal stuff.
Ejaaz:
That probably spends a lot more time, but it seems like the productivity aspect
Ejaaz:
that people are getting from task orientation-based AI stuff using Gemini seems to be extending.
Ejaaz:
And that just kind of like shows I've heard anecdotes from friends you
Ejaaz:
and I were talking to a team member just before recording this and he
Ejaaz:
was like yeah I was talking to a bunch of my friends and they've fully switched
Ejaaz:
to the Gemini app so I think we're going to continue seeing this trend of Google
Ejaaz:
gaining the advantage not because of their infrastructure mode but because they
Ejaaz:
like own all the popular apps that anyone and everyone wants to use and so all
Ejaaz:
they have to do is plug in their AI model with whatever app Gmail,
Ejaaz:
Maps whatever you might kind of think of and suddenly you have a really productive
Ejaaz:
useful app that you and I want to use every day.
Ejaaz:
Josh, you mentioned that you want to use down to banana or you're using down to banana, right?
Josh:
Yeah, there's a there's an important shift that I found that has happened recently
Josh:
that hasn't happened before, which is I have Gemini on my home screen on my phone.
Josh:
And that to me is very high signal because I've been resistant of it because
Josh:
it just hasn't been good.
Josh:
And while it's still not great, I think the ChatGPT app is engineered far better than Gemini.
Josh:
It is good enough to make me want to use it. So I went from not being a user
Josh:
like I would really I'd use Gemini 3 Pro on desktop whenever I had a hard question,
Josh:
but I wasn't reaching for it.
Josh:
And Nano Banana Pro, it really was the killer use case that had me like,
Josh:
oh my God, I need this quickly accessible and in my pocket at all times because
Josh:
it is so far superior to any other product in the space like that.
Josh:
And I think as Google starts to roll out these products, as this is something
Josh:
that we talk about a lot with OpenAI, where they're really good at creating
Josh:
innovation and wrapping it in a product and selling it.
Josh:
As Google gets better at doing that, I really, I strongly suspect Gemini will
Josh:
continue this trend of taking over broader and broader people.
Josh:
Because when you think about how many monthly active users google
Josh:
has it's like gigantic they're one of the few in the
Josh:
world that actually has more than than chat gpt and open ai
Josh:
and if they can convert all of these services to
Josh:
pack ai into it into one coherent service
Josh:
and package that's incredible we talk about a lot of times like with meta for
Josh:
example the they had their awesome hardware product but no one really wanted
Josh:
to use it because the ecosystem sucked well google has like the best ecosystem
Josh:
ever it's funny on my even on my iphone i have an iphone hardware with software
Josh:
from Google because their software is so superior.
Josh:
So as they're able to integrate these top tier models into all the products,
Josh:
this is a serious shift. And I'm very bullish on Google.
Ejaaz:
Yeah, I don't think we're going to see this trend reverse. We already know that
Ejaaz:
Apple is going to be using a Google Gemini-based model in their phone for Siri.
Ejaaz:
That's right, yeah. And we know that we're going to start seeing a lot of Gemini-based
Ejaaz:
apps just kind of like appear in our regular day-to-day.
Ejaaz:
One other final point is like when you compare like Google versus OpenAI,
Ejaaz:
remember OpenAI still isn't profitable.
Ejaaz:
Google is massively, massively profitable, so they don't need to turn on ads.
Ejaaz:
They don't need to kind of like like demean the
Ejaaz:
user experience in any way they could just keep giving you the stuff for free
Ejaaz:
and gaining millions and millions more monthly active
Ejaaz:
users whereas open air at some point is going to turn on ads and when they turn
Ejaaz:
on ads it's going to be an inferior performance it's going to be a inferior
Ejaaz:
product to some extent and that might shift to more people using google gemini's
Ejaaz:
products and google knows this so they're willing to just kind of sit back they
Ejaaz:
own kind of every infrastructure layer and they're just going to see how things play out.
Ejaaz:
But I think that is it for today's episode.
Ejaaz:
Super exciting to kind of like see where Google and NVIDIA ultimately end up.
Ejaaz:
In my opinion, I think that both companies, to your point earlier,
Ejaaz:
Josh, are going to do extremely, extremely well.
Ejaaz:
It's a positive sum game. And the fact of the matter is there is not enough compute.
Ejaaz:
There's not enough energy to feed the compute that both of these companies are pushing out.
Ejaaz:
So I think we're just going to see both these companies grow into two of the
Ejaaz:
largest and most valuable companies in the world. Now, I need to take a quick
Ejaaz:
victory lap for all listeners here who aren't subscribed and who haven't rated our show just yet.
Ejaaz:
We released an episode about the bull case for Google.
Ejaaz:
What was it? Two months ago now. And a lot of it has now played out right now.
Ejaaz:
If you'd invested in Google back then, you would have participated in the hundreds
Ejaaz:
of billions of dollars that their market cap is up relative to NVIDIA right now.
Ejaaz:
Now, I'm not going to say that we triggered it. Maybe we did.
Ejaaz:
Maybe we didn't. But if you want to hear more bull cases like this or more alpha
Ejaaz:
in advance, subscribe to us, rate us, give us a thumbs up, give us feedback. We love it.
Ejaaz:
And we will hear more from you or we will, you will hear more from us rather
Ejaaz:
on the next episode. See you then.