World Cement Podcast

In the World Cement Podcast’s final episode for 2025, Senior Editor David Bizley is joined by Imran Akram of IA Cement to review the state of the market over the course of the year and consider what’s in store for the industry in 2026.
 
Topics covered:
  • 2025 market overview
  • Winners and losers
  • Prospects for 2026
  • The overcapacity issue
  • The impact of decarbonisation on trade
If you enjoy this episode, please make sure to rate, review and subscribe! And if this is your first time tuning into the World Cement Podcast then check out some of our previous episodes too – featuring interviews with leading cement producers, industry associations, and technical experts.

This episode of the World Cement Podcast is sponsored by CemAI and their new process optimisation solution: CemAI Process Optimiser. Combining the power of AI & Machine Learning with cement-specific expertise, CemAI Process Optimiser enables a step-change in production volumes, energy efficiency and consistent quality output.

Find out more at cemai.com
 

Creators and Guests

Host
David Bizley
As well as the day-to-day editing of content and working with article authors and advertisers, he is actively involved in the commissioning of material for both the magazine and its expanding online presence.
Guest
Imran Akram
Chief Executive at IA Cement

What is World Cement Podcast?

The World Cement podcast: a podcast series for professionals in the cement industry.

David Bizley:

Hello, everyone, and welcome back to the World Cement Podcast. For our last episode of the year, we thought it would be a good opportunity to take a step back and look at how global cement markets have fared over the past year and consider what could be in store for us in 2026 as well. To that end, I'm delighted to be joined by Imran Akram of IA Cement. Regular readers of World Cement might recognize Imran and IA Cement from their market forecasts, executive summaries of which appear in the January issue of World Cement each year. So be sure to keep an eye out for the next one coming up in the January 2026 issue of Wealth Cement.

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David Bizley:

Imran, delighted to have you on the World Cement Podcast. Thank you for joining me.

Imran Akram:

Good to be with you.

David Bizley:

For new guests on the World Cement Podcast, we always like to start off with a bit of an introduction. So for those in our audience who haven't yet encountered I a cement or one of your reports, please tell us a bit about yourself.

Imran Akram:

We're a market intelligence firm based in London and Jakarta, set up in 2011. We operate in that space in between cement companies and the financial markets. So we regularly advise both groups. And examples of our work include global demand reports, analysis of industry trends, stock market advice and feasibility studies.

David Bizley:

Okay. So before we take a look at what's coming up next year, let's recap 2025. How would you characterize demand for this year and which regions stand out as success stories and which have maybe struggled a bit more?

Imran Akram:

Cement consumption in 2025 has turned out to be slightly worse than expected, and that's mainly due to The US tariffs. These created both economic uncertainty and also delayed the progress of US interest rate cuts. That's very important for the cement sector because a lot of other countries benchmark their own rates to The US. Overall, we expect global cement demand, excluding China, to show growth of between 1.52%. If we look at regional or country highlights, the Chinese market has fallen sharply due to the downturn in real estate, and this decline has accelerated in recent months.

Imran Akram:

The USA has disappointed on the back of weak housing. The best regional growth has come from North Africa and parts of The Middle East, and several major cement markets have experienced a sharp decline in demand. This list includes South Korea, Iran, Bangladesh and Russia.

David Bizley:

Okay. Looking ahead to 2026 then, and starting off with the big picture, are we looking at more of the same, or is there going to be a change in trajectory?

Imran Akram:

Prospects for 2026 are better. Interest rates are expected to fall further, with economists predicting a drop of 75 to 100 basis points in The US. This will provide a strong boost to housing demand. Office markets are bottoming out in many countries, and the outlook for public works is improving. Forecasts of lower oil prices could help to contain global inflation, and the reconstruction theme is gathering pace as imports pick up into markets such as Libya and Syria.

Imran Akram:

Imports could see a significant additional boost if a number of ongoing conflicts reach resolution. And overall, we see a global demand growth of 2.5 to 3%, excluding China, which represents a solid improvement on 2025.

David Bizley:

Okay, that's good. And what regions or countries can we expect to do well next year with that growth? And conversely, where might we see some struggles?

Imran Akram:

So most countries which declined in 2025 are showing signs of either stabilization or a return to growth. In the mature markets, we expect a slow recovery as most countries are struggling to deal with high debt levels and funds are being diverted to the defense sector. One exception, of course, is Germany, where public work spending is expected to accelerate after the lifting of the debt break, and The US is expected to recover on the back of interest rate cuts. In the emerging markets, the outlook is generally positive. To pick out a few highlights, we expect Saudi Arabia to perform well, helped by higher oil production and event driven public works.

Imran Akram:

Mexico is expected to see a turnaround due to higher public spending. North African countries should see another year of strong, broad based growth. Nigeria is expected to see an improvement after economic stabilization. And India is likely to see a solid growth supported by rate cuts. On the negative side, the Chinese market is likely to drop again as the real estate sector is not yet out of the woods, and Iran is expected to weaken further as the sanctions regime has tightened.

David Bizley:

Right. And moving on to another area, one of the long term bugbears facing many cement producers is overcapacity. To what extent has overcapacity in exporters like Turkey, Vietnam, and even China with its real estate slowdown impacted global cement markets?

Imran Akram:

Well, several major exporting countries seem to have a permanent excess capacity. Whenever they experience strong local demand, producers tend to respond by expanding capacity, which effectively maintains the surplus. Countries like Turkey and Vietnam, and they're certainly not the only ones, are expected to have an exportable surplus over the medium to long term. Now, while this can help importing countries to deal with cement price inflation, as you know, more often than not, it generates complaints of dumping. China is a different story.

Imran Akram:

The authorities there have done a very good job in curbing supply. And a few years ago, there was a very tight supply demand balance. This has changed in the last two years due to the sharp decline in demand and has resulted in a significant trade swing from a high level of clinkering ports to becoming a sizable exporter again. Finally, I would point out that exporters only play a small role in the problem of cement overcapacity. The main culprit is at the country level, where many companies, including new entrants, have taken a very optimistic view of demand projections and have simply built too many plants.

David Bizley:

Okay. Now, one of the major trends or the other major trends impacting the cement industry, particularly in Europe, and we talk about it a lot on this podcast, is that of decarbonization. How do you expect investments in decarbonization tech, things like carbon capture, for example, ultimately to impact production costs and in turn competitiveness on the global market?

Imran Akram:

A lot of cement investments are a win win in the sense that they lower costs as well as reduce emissions. Examples of that include the use of cementitious materials to reduce the clinker factor, alternative fuels and waste heat recovery. Carbon capture and storage is different as there are many questions over the economic viability of such schemes. As a result, it's mostly being pursued in developed countries which can offer subsidies. The Trump administration, of course, has moved away from this, so carbon capture capture projects are mainly concentrated in Europe for the time being.

David Bizley:

Okay. And related to that, how are emerging policies like CBAP, you know, the carbon border adjustment mechanism and sustainability driven procurement standards affecting the global cement and clinker trade?

Imran Akram:

There's a strong global push to use more low carbon cement, and this is expected to have a growing impact on trading. For instance, markets that did not recognize cement cementitious materials in the past are now beginning to do so. The CBAM, as you know, tries to level the playing field by tackling carbon leakage. It's going to be very interesting to see how this plays out in 2026 as the free allowances start to be reduced. The CBAM calculations are complex, but clinker capacity in Europe is already being closed down.

Imran Akram:

And over the time over the long term, this trend is likely to accelerate.

David Bizley:

Okay, and forgive me one last question sort of on the general impact of decarbonization. In your experience, is the growing availability of things like blended cements and STMs changing trade patterns in any way and influencing buyer preferences in a way that's noticeable?

Imran Akram:

Demand for low carbon products is very strong. This is coming from all segments of demand, governments, businesses, especially big businesses, and retail. Customers seem to be happy to pay premium prices for greener products. And this trend is likely to accelerate. For instance, here in The UK, low carbon cement is not available at the retail level yet, but I suspect it will rapidly take market share once it's offered.

David Bizley:

Okay. And are there any other major factors that we haven't already covered that traders, producers and even distributors should be aware of when looking ahead to next year.

Imran Akram:

We've mostly talked about demand and decarbonization. In terms of other factors, selling prices are expected to outstrip cost inflation in 2026. This will pave the way for improved profit margins. M and A is likely to increase as interest rates come down. Cement companies in mature markets continue to look at investing in non cement assets as a way to lower their carbon footprint.

Imran Akram:

And it's also worth pointing out that cement companies have had a strong year on the stock markets in 2025 and are likely to perform well again in 2026 as interest rates come down.

David Bizley:

Okay, excellent. Well, before we wrap up this episode, then do you have any final thoughts for our audience?

Imran Akram:

Well, the world is changing at a dramatic pace, and this is likely to impact the cement industry in one way or another. For example, the quality of governance is changing rapidly with emerging markets improving and mature countries arguably going the other way. Tariffs have completely upended the global world order. Green energy is particularly solar power is being taken up at an amazing pace in some countries. This lowers energy costs on the one hand, but also makes national grids obsolete.

Imran Akram:

Another consideration would be changes in population growth and immigration controls. These are expected to radically alter demographic trends. And then, of course, there's the big question of AI.

David Bizley:

Okay. So lots to think about then. Imran, thank you so much for your time today and for shedding light on perhaps some of the things we can expect next year.

Imran Akram:

My pleasure.

David Bizley:

Now, as I mentioned earlier, an executive summary of IA cement's 2026 report will appear in the January issue of WorldCement, so do be sure to keep an eye out for that one. And as always, if you enjoyed this episode, please do make sure to leave a rating, write up a review, and even subscribe if you haven't already done so. This is the last episode of the World Cement podcast in 2025, so why not check out some of our previous episodes if you've not had a chance to do so yet? We'll be back next year with another great lineup of guests, so until then, I hope you enjoy the holidays and have a happy New Year. Thanks again and goodbye for now.

Advert:

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