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The latest in world horse racing news from the journalists at Idol Horse.
Michael Cox (00:00)
Some stories are bigger than the sport of horse racing. War in the Middle East right now is one of them. But it is affecting people in horse racing very deeply, and that is what we will be focusing on today. I’m Idol Horse editor Michael Cox, joined by Idol Horse chief journalist David Morgan to discuss the latest from the Middle East and how it is affecting racing jurisdictions—and the people currently stuck in the region. Coming up next on the Idol Horse News Desk Podcast. It’s March 3, 2026.
Michael Cox (00:32)
Welcome to the Idol Horse News Desk Podcast, brought to you by World Pool. Visit idolhorse.com to see details of every horse race that matters around the world in one place. Bookmark Idol Horse’s World Racing Calendar now at idolhorse.com.
Michael Cox (00:50)
David, welcome to the podcast. Your piece—“It’s Scary, You Just Don’t Know What To Do”—has been widely read about the situation in the Middle East. You filed it on Monday afternoon. It’s now 24 hours later—Tuesday. Very quickly: what’s changed in the 24 hours since?
David Morgan (01:07)
Since that story was filed, we mentioned that some flights were going to resume—it had been announced by Dubai Airport. Since then, Emirates have extended the suspension of their flights to March 4, which is tomorrow. Etihad out of Abu Dhabi extended theirs from March 4 to March 5 before they’re going to resume.
In the meantime, limited repatriation flights have flown stranded tourists and business travellers out of Dubai. We’ve seen the first British people arrive back in Britain on flights from Dubai. The BBC posted a short segment with video of people talking about their experiences—the fears, and not knowing what was going on.
We’ve also seen more than 12,900 cancelled flights across the Middle East—a huge number of passengers—but we’re starting to see flights come back online. Flights are starting to occur. That’s the main change since Monday.
Michael Cox (02:18)
One of the more remarkable racing stories of recent times: Super Saturday at Meydan in Dubai went ahead as Iran launched missiles and drones into the UAE. Sadly, it’s affected the whole region—and horse racing in particular.
A number of high-profile jockeys and trainers were stuck in Dubai: Oisin Murphy, Ryan Moore, Mickaël Barzalona; from the Hong Kong Jockey Club, Karis Teetan and Chris So as part of a 26-strong group; and Silvestre De Sousa.
I want to dig into the reporting and the human element—your impression of what it was like, and what you found when you spoke to people there. I’m going to pull out a couple of quotes from the story.
Silvestre De Sousa is probably the most powerful. He said: “This is a fight of the big people. It’s scary. You just don’t know what to do. When you finish your work, is it the end of the day or is it the end of your time?” He also said, “I’ll be having this phone call with you tomorrow.”
David, this is the man leading the jockey premiership saying that. What was it like when he said it to you? Where was he?
David Morgan (03:40)
He’d moved out away from the city—he said he was a couple of hours’ drive out—because he felt it would be safer to get out of there. He’s based over there, so he has an apartment in Dubai, and he went out from the city.
There was a sense of trust in the authorities and defence systems—which Oisin Murphy was very clear on. He felt safe with the systems in place. But Silvestre also made the point that you never feel 100% safe. In his mind, there’s always a chance something comes through. He mentioned high-rise buildings and being afraid of being around those.
He said at the races, people were talking about what was brewing and what might happen—but you get on with the races. That’s what most of the jockeys said: you get on with the job.
And then you speak to Chris So—he talks about being on his balcony at the Meydan Hotel and seeing explosions across the city. There was that not knowing exactly what was going on. For some people there was a sense of “we’re protected,” and for others a sense of “we’re in a dangerous spot here.”
Michael Cox (05:27)
Chris So walking in a mall is the image I have from your story—this surreal split between fear and uncertainty, and then a weird sense of normalcy. Looking forward is what we really have to do now. The biggest question people are asking is Dubai World Cup. We’re not really getting answers out of participants.
Give us an idea of the timeline. Dubai World Cup is scheduled for March 28. When does it start to come into doubt in your mind?
David Morgan (06:22)
Personally, I think there’s probably another couple of weeks before it becomes a serious doubt. Dubai has this capacity to make things happen—but obviously not if missile strikes are still coming across.
You don’t underestimate what they’re capable of. But if the conflict continues and it escalates—and we’re still two weeks from now and this is still happening—then there have to be serious doubts.
If you’re a horse owner with a prize horse, do you want to take it into that environment? There’s the problem of getting people in and out again if this continues.
What the UAE Ministry of Defence has released—ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones—shows defence systems have worked with little damage relative to what was launched, but the danger is still there. Like Silvestre said: you can never be 100% sure you’re safe.
So I think we’re a couple of weeks away from a final decision being made.
Michael Cox (08:28)
What about the horses? Are they safe? Do people feel the racecourse was safe? Did you get an impression of how safe it felt at the track?
David Morgan (08:47)
From talking to jockeys and trainers who were there, they felt safer at the track. There were instances of people choosing to stay at the stables rather than in town. The racetrack environment felt away from what was happening. From my understanding, the horses don’t seem to be affected at this point. The stable side and track side are seen as safe spots.
Michael Cox (09:20)
What are the two or three things you’ll be looking for in the next 48 to 72 hours—first for safety of people, and then for racing and Dubai World Cup?
David Morgan (09:41)
First: what’s happening in Iran. It’s horrific. People are being killed, lives destroyed. That’s the big takeaway—this is a human tragedy.
Then: where do we go next? There’s talk of further escalation in the region, and fighting talk on both sides. We don’t know exactly what happens next.
In terms of horse racing, immediately you’re looking at Bahrain, Qatar and Dubai. There are meetings scheduled this week. If those meetings go ahead, it’s a signal racing intends to continue, which would be a positive sign for Dubai World Cup.
And in Dubai, there’s also the messaging: a show of “things are normal.” But there are also warnings about rumours and false information—people being told to stop spreading rumours, and penalties for contradicting the official line.
Michael Cox (12:44)
Essential reading at idolhorse.com—David’s full story is there. We’ll keep tracking it. After the break, something much lighter: the BMW Hong Kong Derby is only three weeks away. There’s a lot to unpack after last weekend’s Classic Cup.
Michael Cox (13:04)
If you’re enjoying the Idol Horse News Desk Podcast, please subscribe, like, and leave a review—it really helps us. Visit idolhorse.com for David Morgan’s full Gulf Conflict story.
Now: the BMW Hong Kong Derby. It’s only three weeks away. The Hong Kong Classic Cup, a race with a history littered with upsets, produced another one: Stormy Grove, a 21–1 winner for Frankie Lor in the Classic Cup. David—what did we learn?
David Morgan (13:43)
We learned Little Paradise isn’t effective if he doesn’t settle. It was a disappointing run, but the way the race went didn’t suit him, and you can give him another chance because he’s clearly talented.
We also learned this is wide open—more wide open than we imagined—with Stormy Grove coming through. We learned Invincible Ibis is a horse to keep on the right side of—he bounced back with another good run.
And we learned there are some horses we liked a month ago as Derby prospects—such as Sagacious Life—that you can put aside as potential Derby winners.
Michael Cox (14:54)
Let’s go back to Little Paradise. Touted as a star after his Classic Mile win—some called him the next Golden Sixty. He ran eighth in the Classic Cup. That’s the worst Classic Mile winner’s Classic Cup finish in 20 years.
Was the Derby case damaged? I didn’t like the run at all. I think they got it wrong. He got warm, missed the start, then pulled on a fast speed. Those things aren’t excuses. How do you turn that around in a Derby?
Shane Dyer identified Dazzling Fit as one for the replay watchers. Tough run, stuck on. Dazzling Fit’s been flying under the radar. Do you feel like he’s a genuine chance?
David Morgan (16:18)
Dazzling Fit had a nice profile earlier in the season, then looked like he might not be good enough. But the run in the Classic Cup was good—back to where he looked a few months ago.
Is he a Derby winner? Trends hold a lot in races like the Derby. I look at a horse’s profile versus past Derby winners, and I’m not sure he fits. But it’s a strange year. It comes back to the idea that maybe the best four-year-olds aren’t actually in this crop, or we haven’t seen them yet.
Michael Cox (17:39)
Shane’s overall message: he won’t tip until he sees the barrier draw—tactics matter and can flip the race. Is there any horse in the likely 14 that isn’t barrier dependent? Even Numbers pushed forward into a fast speed and stuck on for fourth—unimpressive but not hopeless.
The Classic Cup is notorious for upset results, but usually provides clarity. Shane’s point is: it provided none at all.
David Morgan (18:34)
That’s fair, and it’s a good comment about Numbers. He still has the quality to be a Derby winner. The Classic Cup didn’t play to his strength. Perhaps Derek Leung will learn from it—better to find out in the Classic Cup than in the Derby.
Numbers is still one where, if he’s not top three in the Derby, I’d be surprised.
Michael Cox (19:18)
Go to idolhorse.com for the Hong Kong Derby power rankings. A panel of five of us ranked a top 14. There have been wild fluctuations through the Classic Series. This time, both of our number ones are the same: Invincible Ibis. Tell me why you put him number one.
David Morgan (19:57)
It comes back to trends. He barely runs a bad race. The Classic Mile wasn’t what you’d want, but it wasn’t a bad run. He had a string of wins, then sixth in the Classic Mile, then second in the Classic Cup.
I like his profile compared to past Derby winners. He’s proven he can mix it with the top end of this group and that second suggests he can go on again into the Derby—whereas with others I have more doubts.
Michael Cox (20:46)
What I like is the preparation and the team guiding it—Mark Newnham with this horse breaking through and having Derby sights, and then choosing Hugh Bowman for style and settling ability for the trip. The prep has been uninterrupted, the progression is there.
I’m forgiving of that Classic Mile run now—especially after what we’ve seen. Shane Dyer’s analysis of the Classic Mile has proved exceptional in hindsight: calm down on Little Paradise, be forgiving of Invincible Ibis, be forgiving of Patch Of Cosmo. He nailed it.
But I’m less forgiving of Little Paradise now. He played his own part: got warm, missed the start, pulled on a fast speed. How do you turn that around in a Derby?
Michael Cox (23:08)
Go and check the Hong Kong Derby power rankings—comments for each runner, updated as we get to the final field. The final field might spring an upset. There’s a wild card: David Hayes, Yulong, a horse called Pocketing. He’s just left quarantine—import from Australia, a Tulloch Stakes winner, last seen winning a Benchmark 88 at Rosehill. Mr Zhang pays the late entry fee and he trials on Thursday.
David Hayes’ comment is simple: we’ll see after the trial. He’d then need to run in an 1800-metre extended Class 2 about two weeks out from the Derby to qualify.
What interests me isn’t just this horse, but whether this could happen more in the future.
David Morgan (24:58)
It could. The Jockey Club has opened up by bringing in selected overseas owners who aren’t Hong Kong Jockey Club members to race horses in Hong Kong. That raises a fascinating prospect.
It’s almost like a backdoor route into the Derby: a horse can be brought in, prepped quickly—similar to how international runners arrive for December and go. If this works, it could set a trend: horses being kept elsewhere, brought in for a Derby run, and then staying on the ground if it works.
Michael Cox (26:34)
Even if Pocketing simply gains a run, the possibility is important. As more high-profile overseas owners come in—Japanese, Irish, New Zealand—this could grow. It’s a side note now, but something to watch.
David, thanks for joining us. This is the Idol Horse News Desk Podcast for Tuesday, March 3, 2026, brought to you by World Pool. Read David Morgan’s full Gulf Conflict story. There’ll be power rankings, Shane Dyer’s column, and Idle Thoughts at idolhorse.com.