Digging In with UFA

Please note: This episode was recorded in March 2026. The perspectives and forecasts shared reflect the conditions and information available at the time of recording. Given the rapidly evolving global, political, and market environment, circumstances have changed since this episode was recorded.

Fuel is what drives us. It's what keeps our machinery running and our product moving. However, in times of tumultuous international disputes, farmers and ranchers are paying unprecedentedly higher prices because of decisions outside their control. How can ranchers and farmers attempt to navigate shifting fuel prices tied to global and geopolitical events? How can the industry protect itself through times of instability and unpredictability? In this episode, we’re digging in on Fuel Forecast: What’s Driving Prices and What’s Next?

Meet Our Guests

Roger McKnight is the Chief Petroleum Analyst at En-Pro International, an Ontario based consultancy firm. With more than four decades of experience forecasting gasoline and diesel pricing in Canada and over two decades working with major oil companies with a focus in dealing with Imperial Oil, Roger understands the ebbs and flows of fuel pricing and its importance to the industry. His expertise includes refining economics, rack and retail pricing mechanics, carbon and environmental policy impacts and regional distribution constraints. Roger provides daily price outlooks for Canadian news outlets and is recognized for his practical, data backed forecasts that matter to commercial and agricultural fuel users.


  • Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy 
Patrick De Haan is the Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy. For the better part of two decades, Patrick has been a widely respected energy market analyst who monitors real time gasoline and diesel pricing trends across North America. His research focuses on refinery utilization patterns, inventory shifts, global crude dynamics and consumer demand behavior. Patrick appears regularly in national media and is known for translating complex market movements into clear insights for industry and consumers.


About UFA 

UFA Co-operative was founded in 1909, UFA Co-operative Limited is an Alberta-based agricultural co-operative with more than 125,000 member-owners. UFA’s network comprises more than 121 bulk fuel and Cardlock Petroleum locations, 35 Farm & Ranch Supply stores and a support office in Calgary, AB. Independent Petroleum Agents and over 1,200 UFA employees provide products, services and agricultural solutions to farmers, ranchers, members and commercial customers in Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan. UFA is proud to give back to rural communities, ensuring they thrive for generations to come. Learn more at UFA.com.

About Your Host 

Don Shafer, PhD, is an award winning broadcaster, veteran media executive, and recipient of the Canadian Music Hall of Fame’s Lifetime Achievement Award. He holds a PhD in Social Justice, bringing a rare blend of industry expertise and academic insight to the evolving media landscape.

Credits

Host: Dr. Don Shafer, PhD

Guests: Roger McKnight, Patrick De Haan

Senior Writer: Eric La Febre

Showrunner: Jessica Grajczyk

Audio Producer: Scott Whittaker

Executive Producer: Jennifer Smith

Contributor: Trish Nixon 


#podcast #farming #fuel

What is Digging In with UFA?

Founded in 1909, UFA Co-operative Limited is an Alberta-based agricultural co-operative with more than 125,000 member-owners. UFA’s network comprises more than 121 bulk fuel and Cardlock Petroleum locations, 35 Farm & Ranch Supply stores and a support office in Calgary, AB. Independent Petroleum Agents and over 1,200 UFA employees provide products, services and agricultural solutions to farmers, ranchers, members and commercial customers in Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan.

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takes a certain kind of ambition to do what farmers do. Between the hours and the hard labor, to the public scrutiny and bureaucratic maze running, it's not an easy task. While the agricultural industry feeds millions, quietly tilling and producing behind the scenes, many forget that our food comes from the hands of real people with real stories.

Join us as we share stories from those with boots on the ground and unearth unique perspectives on agriculture's biggest conversations. It's time to grab your shovel and get to work. I'm Dodge Schaeffer and this is Digging In with UFA.

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Please note that this episode was recorded in March 2026. The perspectives and forecasts shared reflect the conditions and information available at the time of our recording. Given the rapidly evolving global political market environment, circumstances have changed since this episode was recorded.

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In this episode, we're rubbing our engines and getting to the bottom of what it is that fuels our industry. From family farms and the small fleet of vehicles that get you around the acreage to the large format operations with extensive machinery waiting for harvest, fuel and fuel pricing is imperative to the work that needs to get done. Grab your shovel. It's time to take a deeper look and dig into the fuel forecast, what's driving prices and what's next.

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The sale of oil has a long and tumultuous history.

As the world economy ebbs and flows through monumental political climates, knowing what the future holds for the price of fuel is becoming more difficult. With so many factors affecting the prices we see at the pump, what are the most influential right now? Here to get to the root of fuel pricing in agriculture, this is head of petroleum analysis and gas buddy, Patrick DeHaan, and chief petroleum analyst with the Enpro International Consulting Firm, Roger McKnight.

I'm Patrick DeHaan. I'm head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. I've been taking a dive at energy markets for the better part of now two decades with GasBuddy. So, I've seen a lot of changes and that's my daily job. My name is Roger McKnight. I am the chief petroleum analyst with

M-Pro International, an Ontario-based consultancy firm. My background is I've had over 20 years of experience in the major oil companies dealing with interior oil and we do consultancy work targeting cost analysis and cost savings programs for our client base.

You know, there's always a laundry list of current factors that are weighing on markets. Of course, oil prices are set by a weight of supply and demand, and there's a lot of different things that can either impact the supply of crude oil or demand. And so it's kind of like a scale that adjusts daily. Now, some of the biggest factors can change on a daily basis. But currently, I'd say that the biggest factors impacting the price of oil on the supply side, OPEC has spent much of the last year increasing oil production on a near monthly basis.

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We have the strength, the global economy, the US economy. Demand has been weaker still as we navigate kind of this new norm post pandemic. Many Americans and many across the world still have remote abilities. That is working from home is still an option. So gasoline demand is not quite made a full recovery and that can have a major impact. Also geopolitical tensions, the situations in Venezuela, Iran.

Other geopolitical tensions in the Middle East can also cause deviations in the price of oil. it's a lot of that. It's seasonality as well. Demand increasing in the spring and summer, lower in the fall and winter. It's a lot of these different factors that can change on a daily basis that are really the heart of why the price of oil can fluctuate.

For reference, OPEC stands for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. It was formed in 1960. OPEC was created to ensure market stability and policy. think today the biggest certainty is the uncertainty of geopolitical factors coming into the equation on the price of a liter of gasoline or diesel. I think traders across the world are really sort of checking their pulse really because we don't know.

what the mood is going to be on the geopolitical basis and well the difference to you Patrick the leadership south of the border is showing a monkey wrench into any mathematics that make any sense at all so I think the consumer is sitting back and reading newspapers watching tv and saying okay what's going to happen today because we don't know and normally supply and demand you watch the EIA report check refinery runs and

In the past, that was pretty straightforward. could figure out that. We could figure out the exchange rate. But you can't do that today because we don't know what's going to happen. And that doesn't help the consumer at all. The Venezuela situation, Iran situation, the Ukraine situation, fluctuating dollar, the exchange rates at the OMS. But the key factor is we don't know what's going to happen tomorrow. Let alone what's going to happen in two months or three months. It's a coin toss.

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Yeah, I think to Roger's point, the volatility in the US administration right now, you could wake up tomorrow and there could be some headline that you could have never envisioned, you know, 24 hours from now. think relationships are changing. The US is certainly more protectionist than it has been in its past. And it's upending many norms that those norms are major factors in the price of oil. And there are tensions. Look at what happened in Venezuela. Now, there had been the US had been amassing forces near Venezuela. So there was some

level of understanding that something could happen, but now again with Iran, just a level of unpredictability that has certainly increased with this administration. And you can't ignore the role of that volatility has on overall oil markets.

When looking towards the future of your operation, both in terms of preparation and expected return, predictability is key. In today's fuel market, however, predictability is often a luxury, most within agriculture rarely see. What does planning in this economic climate look like for ranchers when price stability is at an all-time low?

I think you're taking a chance on putting any firm numbers on paper going forward. It's frustrating. I think it's frustrating for Patrick and it's frustrating for me because we get questions not all the time, but we're getting these questions. People are looking for some sort of guidance and really give me a white cane because I really don't know what's going to happen. I think from North American standpoint, the border is still there. We still cooperate.

pricing of gasoline and diesel is the all honesty that the border doesn't exist because it's a made in USA situation. follows the racks and the rack and what are the racks following? Are they following domestic supply and demand?

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Are they following international supply and demand? Are they following international politics? Are they following North American politics? Pick one, pick a card, any. Yeah, know, as Roger says, you know, there's hard to come out of where we are today with any level of uncertainty or certainty, should say, given the uncertain times, how things have developed, how norms have been kind of destroyed in the last year and a half of, you know, a lot of different things are grabbing the U.S. president's attention, and those can have a very

all of the impact on the price of oil. Now, on the other side of that token, I think the president has been very clear about his appetite for having lower oil prices. We have OPEC, who has been increasing oil production. even amidst uncertainty, there is some level of certainty given the other factors, the supply side of the equation, OPEC's producing more, the United States, Canada has been increasing production. Canada is now even talking about

potentially building infrastructure to become less reliant on the United States. So there's an interest there in Canada increasing its ability to sell oil to the global market. So even now, amidst a lot of uncertainty, it does look like the immediate future may feature lower oil prices than we had seen, you know, at the height of the pandemic when Russia attacked Ukraine, though that is persistent. We are likely in an era of relatively lower oil prices. And I say relatively because certainly things can change, but

For now, it does look like OPEC now has a renewed interest in increasing supply. We've also seen a lot of head turning moments from OPEC back in 2014. They opened the spigot, then they shut it down in 2017, then they opened it again in 2022. again, another point of contention here is we just don't know if OPEC is going to wake up tomorrow and say, well, we're done increasing supply, now we're going to decrease supply. Well, from my perspective, I can rely on, without the EIA report, on weekly basis,

global oil market would be just a giant guessing game. That's what I follow personally. I think a lot of the traders do at Props the Globe. Without that information, you really have no big signposts to follow because that is it. And I watch refinery runs. Right now we're coming into refining maintenance seasons. So you've got to watch those, watch those on a regional basis. Various little things you've got to keep an eye on and try and keep the politics out of it. It's almost impossible.

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For the listener, EIA Weekly Reports refers to the Energy Information Administration's weekly petroleum status reports, which provides updated context and reporting on international shifts in petroleum and gas. You know, Roger said it so perfectly and just the seasonal ups and downs, you know, it doesn't really matter who's in power, what may be happening. There's generally always going to be the seasonality. The balance of supply and demand is consistently changing in a small

basis between winter and summer and fall and spring. so almost every spring, for the reason that Roger mentioned, refinery maintenance is a big element of why prices generally go up in the spring and the switch back from less stringent winter gasoline to something we call summer gasoline for simplicity. That doesn't happen in an overnight approach. It is a phased approach that does take a couple of months. And that is something that along with refinery maintenance and as temperatures eventually start to warm up.

we do see more interest in increasing demand and getting outside. All of those three factors are major culprits for gasoline prices that seasonally rise in the spring. Meanwhile, diesel, a little bit different since diesel and heating oil are essentially the same product, we generally see diesel prices going down at the opposite time of year that gas prices do. So diesel prices may ease coming out of the winter and into the spring as demand goes down for heating oil, whereas gasoline markets generally see increasing prices as we get into warmer weather.

Ranchers and fuel consumers are oftentimes at the mercy of global politics. As we look between recent events unfolding in both Venezuela and Iran, as well as conversations in the U.S. surrounding tariff policy, the detrimental effects in both the short-term and long-term seem incalculable. Are Canadians already seeing the effects of these actions and policies? Is there any way to estimate what the actual lasting effect will look like?

I think the Venezuelan situation has been knee-jerked out proportion. don't think Venezuela has any solid crude oil in the Ceylon Stream. It'll come on a little bit at the start, but it's going to take years and years for the Venezuelan oil industry to get out of a comedic situation as it is right now. So I don't think Western Canada needs fear at the moment, but I would certainly encourage our politicians, provincial and...

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especially federal, to start accelerating their thoughts on looking for an alternative supply, an alternative customer rather than our treasured US customer. We've had for years and years and years, but that time is, I think that time is gone. Yeah, it's certainly uncertain now with the US becoming a little bit less rational on trade and the relationship between the two countries. Canada may need to focus on itself.

for its survival. you know, there's been so much interest on the Venezuela subject because the president has made it very clear the U.S. interest in oil there is significant. And while it's very interesting and many are looking for potential impacts to their wallet, as Roger mentioned, this is something that is not going to happen overnight. Exactly right. And again, this is kind of very fitting that we have two different perspectives on this. And certainly depending on where one is in Canada can even make a difference because of how intertwined the two countries have been.

the U.S. being the top customer of Canadian crude oil, but that Canadian crude oil running through the U.S. and then back into Ontario in some cases. And so you talk about tariffs, you know, they sound simple in terms of how they apply, but we're talking about a commodity that flows from Canada into the United States, back into Canada, and sometimes in different forms as well. Markets in Canada may receive U.S. refined fuels.

So this is a very delicate balancing act and some Americans rely on Canadian producers, the Irving Oil refinery supplying much of the US New England area. So, you know, this is something to keep an eye on. For now, it seems like the subject of tariffs has been a distant memory, but that very quickly could be resurrected and there could be huge implications for both Canadians and Americans.

because the two countries so are intertwined with both oil and the products that flow out of a refinery. And so, you the impact is minimal for now because much of this is covered under the U.S.-Canada-Mexico agreement already in place. But if that were to suddenly shift, there could be some profound and very unpredictable impacts to gasoline and oil prices and diesel and jet fuel. Many industries rely on these products in different ways, and it could be very profound.

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I think the Canadian consumer must understand that the 49th parallel of the border really doesn't exist when it comes to gasoline and diesel and jet fuel. It flows back and forth on a daily basis. Refiners look at the import-export alternatives. Let's take Seattle and the Vancouver area. The producers there, the refiners there, will look at the import. Is it better to import the fuel or export it? And they'll pass that point and come up with their answer. And product will either go south of the border or go north of the border.

It depends on pennies or tenths of a cent per litre or per gallon. if that truck will go that way or it will back down that way. pricing is the link between the two countries, not just supply and demand. Actual pricing is that border doesn't exist. Prices on the west coast of Canada really follow what happens in California. It's a reverse domino. California refineries are losing two this month. That will increase prices in the...

California market and that will increase prices in the Seattle market, Washington and Oregon. And that'll backflip into Vancouver. So Vancouver rack or wholesale prices will increase as long as the refining capacity in California decreases. It's as simple as that. Absolutely. It could lead to more volatility.

We have a Valero refinery closing, as Roger mentioned, in April in Venetia, California, on top of the existing shutdown of the Phillips 66 refinery in Wilmington last fall. already seeing gasoline supplies tied around the West Coast, it's simply going to mean that along with areas like BC, imports are going to be relied on to fill the gap that is not flowing out of these refineries in California. And very much BC is a taker of whatever is occurring in California.

California certainly has unique regulations and rules that have made it very difficult for refineries to continue operating and investing. And that's why we're seeing an interest in refineries exiting the state because of the onerous requirements that are brought on. it certainly should be assigned to a very tight market and how restrictive it is that refineries are essentially wanting to close their doors. That is, there's really no answer for what has happened there. So it likely will lead to volatility, generally higher prices.

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until there's any long-term measures that are found. Actually, it's quite fascinating that new infrastructure is being proposed now, at least in the US, to adjust from what's happening in California with new pipelines being talked about. So it's a very significant development to see these refineries shut down and it will likely lead to higher prices and more volatility in prices. I was quite amused or surprised to hear the governor of California wanting infrastructure to get...

Now that we finally are closing down, well, we better get a pipeline to get that refined product into California. Well, you better change your specs in California because a no-refine is going to backflip to get it to that market, even though the population of California is exactly the same as the population of Canada. It's just a huge, huge market.

You know, and something else on that to mention too is that US President Trump has been talking about potentially executive action to limit gasoline prices, calling out California for how high prices are, a lot of the taxes. So it's an interesting development too, that much of California's rules, requirements and types of gasoline are not governed by the federal government, but by the state authority called the California Air Resources Board, which under the Clean Air Act in the United States received express permission. And there is a possibility, though, remote,

that President Trump could rescind that ability in California. And that could also greatly impact the entire West Coast because California's rules set the tone for prices and regulations. California, the state with the most refineries in the West Coast. So something like that, if President Trump were to dismantle the Air Resources Board, I could have a profound impact on markets. Like I said, I don't think he's even mentioned that.

But again, in the era of unpredictability, the president has drawn attention to California because of its high gasoline prices and taxes. that could be in the wheelhouse if the president chooses to act on that. Regulations designed to encourage cleaner energy use can affect fuel prices drastically, both south and north of the border. But their inner workings and real impact can be tough to track. Whether it's renewable energy initiatives,

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clean fuel regulations or US duties on Canadian energy imports, who is most affected when these situations worsen? Well, it did. Carbon tax was eliminated, but it looks like the clean fuel standard is going to come in and take its place. there's the tax you see and the tax you don't see, the tax you have now and the tax that is going to be predicted. So the clean fuel standard is an attempt to reduce the amount of emissions in the gasoline and diesel. that's carbon tax goes.

Clean fuel standard comes back in. So again, it's a guessing game. It's Let's call it politics or what it is. on. Well, and the interesting thing too here is the U.S. and Canada are also very much tied together on some of these rules and standards and sulfur content of gasoline because of the, as Roger mentioned, the disappearance of the border when it comes to products like gasoline, diesel. The two, Canada and U.S. very much feed off each other on standards. They have very consistent standards.

again, because of how interconnected the systems are when it comes to oil refineries, pipelines and beyond. There's been a lot of attention on renewable fuel standards in the U.S. The interesting thing here is that there's been talk about expanding the use of E15 or what's also marketed as unleaded 88. These types of standards can be impactful both in the short and long term. So whether it's a clean fuel standard or renewable fuel standard or the increase in ethanol.

When you mandate something, there can be ripple effects that consumers just don't see. USMCA covers an extensive amount of this energy back and forth. And I do believe that terms of energy, some electricity was exempt from USMCA. But as it stands right now, I believe there's basically minimal duties on petroleum products interchanging between the US and Canada because of how they were covered under USMCA. And as I mentioned, that could change.

if there's a new trade agreement or if existing trade agreements ratified, there could be shifts in that. But right now, because the two countries are so interconnected, any small increase in duties would likely be very impactful, potentially for both sides of the border. For our listeners, USMCA stands for United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. In Canada, we call it CUSMA, the Canada-United States and Mexico Agreement. USMCA or CUSMA.

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substitutes the North American Free Trade Agreement or NAFTA and it came into effect July 1st, 2020. I can't see any duties being applied and I think we just have to take a wait and see. And any comment I would make would be strictly guesswork. You know, obviously the US MCA covers a tremendous amount of goods between the US and Canada. To what Roger said earlier, any small duty is essentially magnified between

how much oil is sent to the U.S. on a daily basis. We're talking about over four million barrels of oil, of Canadian oil that are exported to the United States. Probably a significant amount of refined product that's interchangeable between the U.S. and Canada. Any small duty or the potential of any small cost that would be borne by the consumer would likely have a dramatic impact. You know, even talking about building infrastructure that allows Canada to ship its oil outside of the United States is going to be very impactful if it

is built in the years ahead, Canadian oil has essentially been sold to the U.S. nearly exclusively. That has a potential ripple effect. But for that reason, it's very unlikely that I see any duty or any increased cost coming between the U.S. and Canada when it comes to oil and the products derived from it. Even when not relying on government entities to help change or affect these fluctuating impacts on prices, individual companies and more localized points of sale attempt to provide a

bit of relief. It's fairly clear how consumer interest and sale affects the flow of economic standards. What does patronage and cooperative spaces look like for suppliers in the long run? You know, an oil company, whether or not they have upstream assets, a lot of that is reinvested. But, you know, certainly there's a profound difference in structure between a for-profit, a private company and a cooperative. So their goals and agendas don't align. They may look very differently and that can lead to

what a co-op or what a private company will look to charge for gasoline. They have very different structure and overhead and very different growth prospects and that can impact what motorists may pay at the pump at either one of those stations. Companies that are less profitable in the short term don't have enough capital to sustain the current flow of oil or the current amount of supply. And so a lower price environment may be more difficult to reinvest or invest proceeds to continue.

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pumping as much oil or continue producing as much product. So, you know, that's why this whole subject of oil and what we pay at the pump, it's a balance. And if prices are too low, inevitably that will produce lower reinvestment, which down the line will produce likely lower supply. So while consumers love lower prices, lower prices almost always translate down the road to higher prices. And that's kind of the cycle of oil. When prices are low, can impact prices years down the road.

When prices are high, also can have an impact for bringing lower prices back down the road. The oil is very cyclical. Although it can be tough not to feel helpless in times like these, helpless is not a part of a rancher's vocabulary. We adapt, we anticipate, and we survive even through the most tumultuous times. Whether it's adjusting a pricing strategy or structuring with short-term predictions on pricing shifts to come.

there is always another avenue to explore. You're talking, predicting what the price is going to be tomorrow. Is that what you're saying? Well, I've been doing that for quite a few years and a consumer can do it. They can figure out what the RAC change is going to be in the very, very near future by following the commodity prices say on the Wall Street Journal. Those prices are set at 6 p.m. Eastern time. So you can see the direction that it's going to go.

I've been tracking the diesel price in Western Canada versus Toronto. Toronto follows in New York Harbor prices, generally speaking, which is a subject to the winds of traders and geopolitics. Western Canada is considered anything west of Thunder Bay. really follows the price of crude and I've been tracking those two regularly now and there's very little difference in the amount of change, not the price, the amount of change, Toronto and East versus Winnipeg, Calgary and the West.

very little change, difference indeed in the amount of change, not the absolute number, but the amount of change. So a consumer can say, so trend is that prices are going down, so now I tie my fills according to that. But the other problem you've got is you have to find a supplier who is willing to keep pace with your timetable, and they also have to be able to supply it. A full load is 52,000 litres. That's what the rack price is based on.

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Anything less than that, the price goes up because the discount doesn't exist anymore. So you've got a timing problem and you've got a supply problem. Some suppliers will require 48 hour delivery or 24 hour delivery. Not going to get it in an hour and a half. So it's a real gambling game and it's very frustrating. So I don't know if you want to do that. It sounds like the question may be very focused also on larger end users with purchases that may be larger and more infrequent.

And remembering that seasonality plays a big role in prices being higher when demand is higher. And so somebody looking to lock in may want to either speak with an expert or if they know the trends themselves. A lot of the trends just follow imbalances or I should say the ever-changing balance of supply and demand through the years. So if you're a large end user of gasoline, you'll probably get more benefit when you're locking in or buying a commodity when demand is lower.

Likewise, you'll likely pay more when the commodities higher. So if you can time those purchases, depending on what product you're looking at, it would make more sense to look at yearly trends, see how those have held up and then obviously subject to geopolitical tensions and other uncertainties. There are generally better times of the year to buy certain types of commodities. You know, if you're talking about diesel for agricultural consumption, buying in mid-January, February when heating oil consumption is sky high is probably not the best idea.

Conversely, buying diesel in the summer or in the spring when diesel demand is starting to decline may be advantageous or buying it towards the end of the summer before consumption of heating oil increases. So there are different ways to approach this, but having an expert and looking at yearly trends certainly can yield significant savings to make sure you're avoiding buying at market highs and hopefully being able to lock in at the lower prices.

between industry professionals that helps keep things moving. In times of difficulty like these, these bits of information can make all the difference. There's so much noise in the market right now on so many different things and being able to parse out what may be accurate, what may be inaccurate, you know, that given the current environment that we're in, being able to discern what is news and what is noise certainly can make a big difference. don't know how I would suggest somebody that be able to dig through that, but

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You know, market analysts, Roger and I have been doing this for a very long period of time. And if there's something you don't know, going to somebody that does generally can help you have a better experience all around. But having said that, there's certainly always a measure of uncertainty with the market, especially the days that we've been in now. So it's very difficult to know some of the nuances, but there's still always rules of thumb that certainly can be helpful when making these big decisions. I would go back to the

traditional. I look at supply and demand, look at the EIA report, I look at the refinery rounds, stick to things that are black and white and on paper rather than the imagination of some trader in New York or God knows where else. Stick with the facts as you see them, as we know them, not the theoretical geopolitical twists and turns that we're going through right now. It's very frustrating, think, for Patrick and myself.

Very, very frustrating. It's very foggy, but the good news is there are good resources, though those resources may be buried or people may be unaware. I think now is when technology, you know, we've talked about across the industry, artificial intelligence, though it's not perfect all the time, it may help you uncover resources that are accurate and the data. I always follow what the data is, try not to have a personal opinion on anything and follow what the data does. The data is the story and looking and parsing out.

how the data changes over time. mean, all of that is what we do as analysts, is analyze the market and what is changing and the data is out there. I would say that, know, south of the border, there's a lot of very good and extensive amount of information on supply and demand movements. It's a little bit harder to obtain that good data in Canada. The U.S. was very much ahead when, you know, back in the 70s, it mandated the collection of this data. So now that we have a vast amount of history when it comes to...

what is normal, what is not normal, but utilizing that data to make decisions, I mean, especially in today's age is absolutely a necessity. Yes, he's right, because in Canada, we don't even keep track of inventories. We have no idea, because our government has decided that's not important, guess. Thankfully, the US has come to our rescue and supplied the information that we all use, all analysts use, and all done in Canada and United States, but worldwide. Without that, it would be playing a dark board.

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I think that's the easiest answer is just whatever is happening geopolitically and you know, as an American, I think that a lot of that's emanating from Washington, D.C. A lot of the uncertainty is that's very difficult to predict. But I think that is what is driving a lot of headlines, a lot of shifts in the price of oil this year. As we speak here today, obviously, there's been quite a lot of volatility here over the last week or two with those developments, with what's happening between the U.S. and Iran, with the U.S. and Venezuela.

with oil producers, Kazakhstan, OPEC. Staying attention to the headlines is going to be the key this year in trying to understand the market's constant gyrations. As a petroleum analyst, it's been a little bit less focused on petroleum analysis and a little bit more on some of the political analysis too, just being able to understand what moves may happen next.

However, given the trends in what has happened and how we've adapted, we can hope that whatever comes our way will be there to handle it. As we've covered, uncertainty is hard to predict when it will develop and what it will look like. But all in all, you know, I still would be fairly optimistic of an era at least 2026 will feature more volatility, but potentially lower prices. And a lot of that rests again with OPEC's decision last year to start increasing oil production.

Those increases are paused for the first quarter of 2026. So I would say that potentially one of the bigger developments could be whether or not OPEC resumes increasing oil production in the second quarter starting in April. That could have a major impact because OPEC and other banks, countries have been trying to predict the next move for the price of oil. And that is going to be a big factor in what oil prices may look like, especially with a global economy that may be more resilient than we give a credit for being. So while there's uncertainty always,

know, unemployment rates are still relatively low in a lot of developed countries, and it's going to be very key what OPEC's decision is in terms of the timing for increasing oil production to see how low oil prices will stay this year. I deal with a lot with consumers that get very upset. And though politics may try to convince you otherwise at the end of the day, and we've said politics have had an impact on markets today, but overall, oil is a global commodity. While somebody may say something today,

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It's not always words that may move markets significantly. Oil prices are still derived mostly from a balance of supply and demand. And one president, whether it's the US president, whether it's the prime minister of Canada, this is still a commodity used in essentially every country across the world. And it takes monumental shifts or larger shifts to supply and demand to really be impactful on a long-term basis. So politicians like to take credit. They like to point the finger. But ultimately,

The balance of supply and demand is not in one person or one country's control. One thing I would like to see disappear, I'd like to politicians stick to politics. I'd like politicians to stick to governing and leave the oil industry to take care of itself.

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At the end of the day, we look to our resiliency within ourselves and our communities to make our collective futures as bright as possible. All it will take is conversations like these, some vulnerability and a little digging.

Thanks to the support of UFA Cooperative, we're able to share these stories from those who live and breathe agriculture. Thanks to Roger and Patrick for giving us a deeper look into just how important fuel pricing is, especially in our current sociopolitical climate. For more information on today's episode, visit us at ufa.com. With listeners like you, we'll continue to dig a little deeper on Digging In with UFA. I'm Don Schaffer. Thanks for listening.

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