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Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.
You're watching TVPN. Today is Monday, 10/20/2025. We are live from the TVPN UltraDome, the temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. Later in the show, we also have the CEO of GameStop, Ryan Cohen, joining the show at noon. So if you're new here and you're tuning in for the first time, please stay with us.
Speaker 1:They're also Do you think the AWS outage is is is it entirely because of us and and the GameStop shorts want us to stop podcasting
Speaker 2:Yep.
Speaker 1:So that we can't bring them the latest in the world of of GameStop?
Speaker 2:I think it was potentially Amazon
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Just turning it off for a second Yeah. To show everyone that, hey, Cloud Cloud's still pretty important. Yeah. Forgotten about us.
Speaker 1:That makes sense.
Speaker 2:You're still dependent on us.
Speaker 1:Andre Karpathy made waves this week on the Dwarkash Patel podcast. He said a lot of he called AI slop. He also said that the models are amazing. He said that autocomplete is his sweet spot. He had a bunch of positive things to say.
Speaker 1:But overall, people did not react positively. Everyone says the AI bubble is over. It's popped. You gotta rotate out of AI stocks. My take is that if you're looking for something safe, you gotta rotate into food, water, shelter, and guns.
Speaker 1:All of industrialization is a bubble. We're going back to monkey. We're returning to monkey. Yeah. We're going to be living in huts because technology is a bubble.
Speaker 1:Technology is fake, and all we have left is to homestead and live in a shelter. So get ready to go back to sticks and stones. That's my take.
Speaker 2:Good take.
Speaker 1:Andre Karpathy was a cofounding member of OpenAI. He was there from day one. He also was at Tesla and built the self driving car program there. He is one of the most respected AI practitioners, researchers, basically saying that AGI is, like, ten years away, not one year, not two years. He's kind of debunking the idea, or at least he's just sharing, like, the vibes that he doesn't feel like the AI twenty twenty seven fast takeoff scenario is probable.
Speaker 1:Over a year ago, 09/23/2024, Sam Altman posted a blog post said the intel called the the intelligence age. And this is what he said in there. He said, it is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days. He's still setting expectations to be like AGI is a decade away, which is exactly what Andre said. But when Sam said it, everyone was like, let's go super long.
Speaker 1:And when Andre says, oh, it's bad, which is kind of an interesting tweak. Whenever you talk to a technologist and you say, like, okay. You're working on getting us to Mars. You're working on, fusion reactors. You're working on quantum computing.
Speaker 1:When will this actually change my life? When will this be when will this technology be ready for primetime? Everyone says, it's just a decade away. It's gonna be so long that everyone will have forgotten in a decade.
Speaker 2:Some people listen to the Karpathy interview and thought, great. I have ten years to escape the permanent undercover. Yeah. Totally. Is which is exactly exactly how OpenAI is also acting.
Speaker 2:Right?
Speaker 1:They're acting
Speaker 2:like Yes. A big tech company. They're launching a social media ad. Yes. They're working on ads.
Speaker 1:Yes. Yes. Yes. They're trying to
Speaker 2:scale paid users. Yep. Right? They're just acting like a traditional hyperscale. Hyperscale.
Speaker 2:The fact that, ten years AGI is like a bearish take
Speaker 1:Is crazy.
Speaker 2:That's so bullish.
Speaker 1:That's extremely bullish.
Speaker 2:Did you see a lot of pushback from anyone at the big labs on the interview?
Speaker 1:No. I didn't see anything.
Speaker 2:I expected to see more people saying, Karpathy's been out of the game for a few years. He doesn't have the scale. He's not really at the front tier. Yeah. He's not seeing what we're seeing, and I didn't see any of
Speaker 1:Just whatever you are thinking of doing in the public markets, go to public.com, investing for those that take it seriously. They got multi asset investing, industry leading yields. They're trusted by millions. Oracle's now on the hook for something like $300,000,000,000 in infrastructure over the next five years. That's a lot very quickly.
Speaker 1:They're hoping that, OpenAI revenue will pay for that.
Speaker 2:It is very notable
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:That OpenAI has announced partnerships with Etsy
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah.
Speaker 2:This is and Walmart
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 2:And not Amazon and eBay. Amazon's management team, eBay's management team aren't so quick to let Sam Yep. The fox into the nthouse.
Speaker 1:Things can get out of control where, like, the iPhone got so dominant that Google had to pay Apple to be the default search. It's not the right framing to say, like, we've never seen anything like this. It's breaking all of our patterns, so we're just completely operating off playbook. I think it's much better to just say that, like, this is a new hyperscaler. We all saw what happened with Google and Amazon.
Speaker 1:They were started before the .com bubble popped. Yep. And they scaled very fast. OpenAI is scaling faster on users and revenue, and so we are investing more, but it's all proportionate. And so it's the exact same playbook.
Speaker 2:OpenAI growth, ChatGPT growth is seemingly slowing a little bit. And that makes sense just based entirely on the scale that they're at right now. There's a reason that OpenAI wants its own browser. Perplexity wants its own browser. I don't think they've properly even leveraged Chrome yet in order to drive Gemini usage.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Browser wars of the summer twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1:I wanna preregister the following opinion. I think it's plausible, but by no means guaranteed that we could see a massive financial crisis or bubble pop affecting AI in the next year. I expect if this happens, it will mostly be for mundane economic reasons, overleveraged markets, financial policy of major nations, mistiming of bets, even by a small amount of and and good old fraud, not because the technology isn't making rapid progress. Yes. We we gotta go even harder.
Speaker 1:The the bear market's bullish for doom. Underrated AI doom scenario, the bubble pops so hard that everyone goes bankrupt. There's mass famine and starvation, and humanity population collapses all because we went too levered long AI. What do you think about that? Plausible?
Speaker 1:It just might be. Listening to this podcast, it's Yep. Balloon popping. We will see about
Speaker 2:The reason it is so important for everyone to keep pretending that AGI is definitely right around the corner is that there is now over 1,000,000,000,000 of investment riding on this belief, either already expended or committed.
Speaker 1:We should move to the, the Napoleon jewels that were stolen from the Louvre in a major robbery. The thieves stole jewelry from display cases in Galleria de Paulione.
Speaker 2:Finally, a brazen heist.
Speaker 1:We are anti heist. We are anti crime. Do not do this. If you have information that could lead to the arrest of these thieves, let us know. We will send you a hat.
Speaker 1:Is this the cure for male loneliness?
Speaker 2:Tourists were streaming into the world's most visited museum on Sunday when a group of thieves burst in through a window of a gilded gallery on the Second Second Floor and made off with a set of priceless royal jewels. Two of the perpetrators, at least one wearing a high visibility yellow vest.
Speaker 1:That looks amazing. Blend in so much. It just looks like work around
Speaker 2:angle grinders to cut through the window and get inside.
Speaker 1:Yep. Tempted, but failed to set fire to their truck. So they're trying to burn the truck on the way out to, like, get rid of all the fingerprints, I suppose. And they dropped the crown of empress Eugene with nearly 1,400 diamonds before they sped away. It was found damaged.
Speaker 1:No one was injured. Eight pieces in total were stolen, including an emerald earring and an emerald necklace that belonged to empress Marie.
Speaker 2:Such a brutal fumble. Fumbling 1,400 diamonds.
Speaker 1:Massive fumble.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Obviously, they're you're they're never gonna be able to capture the same value necessarily as if you're able to do an open auction. There's a small pool of buyers. Yeah. There's probably a 100 people in the world Yep.
Speaker 2:That would be willing to pay tens of millions Yeah. And potentially more
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Just just to know that they had it and just to be a family secret.
Speaker 1:Do you think there are any buyers that would flex it? What if you're Vladimir Putin? What if you're Kim Jong Un?
Speaker 2:Elon says my estimate on the probability of Grok five achieving AGI is now at 10% and rising.
Speaker 3:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:Gabe says 10% chance. Elon declares he reached AGI a fourth time.
Speaker 1:Elon says a lot of crazy stuff about, like, I hope that we'll be able to do novel physics. I think the next version's gonna be really powerful, this and that. But I don't know that he's ever actually called a a version of Grok AGI. But, anyway, it clearly, it clearly upset Elon because he replied and said, you call yourself a, quote, unquote, researcher. Hitting somebody with the double quotes, we know with the pain that that inflicts.
Speaker 1:It's terrible. You never wanna be hit with the double quotes.
Speaker 2:Jensen Huang was at a Citadel event Mhmm. Future of global markets Mhmm. And said we are a 100% out of China. We went from 95% market share to zero percent. I can't imagine any policymaker thinking that's a good idea.
Speaker 2:100% out of China, but doing astonishingly healthy business in Singapore and Malaysia. Totally out of the blue. Swinging around accusations that Singapore and Malaysia are fronts for Chinese chip demand.
Speaker 1:We also love ramp.com. Time is money saved both. Easy to use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place. Why the China doves are wrong? American business leaders cozying up to Beijing refuse to see that the Communist Party wants us to fail.
Speaker 1:That while some Americans wear the label China hawk as a badge of honor, it is really a badge of shame. The future, mister Wong says, doesn't have to be all us or them. It could be us and them. A lot of this is, all teeing up a major trade deal. The rare earth equation is, is certainly a big one.
Speaker 1:America has a bunch of levers to pull. If they were truly, the next scaling run is what does it, they would be like, oh, let's take the NVIDIA chips as well. Instead, they're saying, okay. Well, let's let's actually gear up for independence over a long period of time. JPMorgan says NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's projection of AI CapEx growing from 600,000,000,000 today to 3 to 4,000,000,000,000 by 2030 is financially feasible, though ambitious.
Speaker 1:Even with a projected 1.2 1,600,000,000,000 annual funding gap, private markets could contribute about 500,000,000,000 per year by 02/1930, leaving the rest to be covered by leverage expansion.
Speaker 2:Yeah. And the key question is, you know, if you want AI CapEx to scale to 3 to 4,000,000,000,000, you're gonna need revenue to support that.
Speaker 1:Jordy, have you have you received any any inbound from random people who seem to have GPT psychosis?
Speaker 2:Hard to say. Human's no longer necessary. So we're getting rid of them. Replacement AI can do anything a human can do, but better, faster, and much, much cheaper. Quote from Sam Allman, AI will probably most likely lead to the end of the world, but in the meantime, there'll be great companies.
Speaker 1:That's a
Speaker 2:wild quote. Quote here from Dario. I think there's a 25% chance that things go really, really badly.
Speaker 1:The Starbucks CEO, Brian Nickel, says the coffee giant is all in on AI, reveals real time artificial intelligence systems designed to assist baristas and transform store operations. We gotta
Speaker 2:put on the schizo hat.
Speaker 1:Okay. Please.
Speaker 2:Starbucks stock is up 6.66% past five days. Coincidence?
Speaker 1:Very weird.
Speaker 2:Are they are they using AI to summon the demon?
Speaker 1:Uber is going to give its drivers in The US an option to make money by doing digital tasks. These short minute long tasks can be done anytime, including while idling for passengers.
Speaker 2:I hope they put some type of restriction in where if they detect that you're in a like, actually moving, that they say you cannot do data labeling right now because somebody FSD. Somebody in traffic just data labeling. FSD. Tyler, you're pretty AGI pilled. Right?
Speaker 2:Yeah. Okay. Well, why don't you earn a $100 doing data labeling? That's your challenge for the next twenty four hours. It was weird being in Vegas recently.
Speaker 2:So quiet. So many fewer people gambling, drinking, partying. My pet theory, Ozempic killing Vegas just like it's killing snack food brands, liquor producers, and Napa. Yes. That would go the opposite angle with the rise of Robinhood prediction markets and sports betting.
Speaker 2:There is little reason to go to Vegas. It is more expensive. The house edge is higher, and it's hotter outside. Less drinking contributes too, though. For Vegas, like, it's just like a isn't it like a recession indicator?
Speaker 2:Right? Like, the the That's another option. Real economy is not not doing well
Speaker 1:right now.
Speaker 2:I saw another quote that just said, like, the nightlife scene there has been hyper financialized to a degree that it's just not even fun anymore.
Speaker 1:People aren't gambling for one reason or another. Maybe it's the Ozempic. You need to make Vegas high end.
Speaker 2:Thank you. What if they set up a bunker in there that, that has a bunch of stolen goods from all over the world? From you says over the last fifteen years, Reddit's relationship had advice has shifted towards recommending breakups, boundaries, and therapies Yeah. And against compromised communication and letting people have their space. It's just concerning for a number of reasons.
Speaker 2:One being that your favorite AI models are all being on Reddit. If you're having, relationships problems, whether friend or romantic, and you start a podcast together, it sounds like terrible
Speaker 1:about that. The options from Reddit. End relationship, communicate, give space slash time, set respect boundaries, seek therapy, counseling, compromise, other. How about getting the octagon?
Speaker 2:Duke it out.
Speaker 1:Duke it out. If you're having a relationship problem with someone, buy them a luxury watch on getbezel.com. Because your bezel concierge is available now to source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch. You're like, ugh.
Speaker 2:The senate republicans posted a video of Chuck Schumer.
Speaker 1:Chuck Schumer thinks playing with Americans
Speaker 3:Every day gets better for us.
Speaker 1:Chuck Schumer Low income women, infants
Speaker 3:Every day gets better for us.
Speaker 2:Okay. K. The mouth movement is a little Chuck
Speaker 1:Schumer thinks
Speaker 3:Every day gets better for us. Every day gets better
Speaker 1:I mean, like, it's clearly based on some real image that they took, so the lighting looks very real. The skin texture looks really real because the the AI model doesn't really have to do that much to regenerate it from scratch. But, of course, we've seen that, you know, all the models are basically, you know, indistinguishable if you don't have full context at this point. Thank you so much. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify tomorrow.
Speaker 1:We'll see you tomorrow.