Dru's Notes

Matt Affleck went all in with two aces at the 2010 World Series of Poker as a 77% favorite and lost on the last card. With FedEx down to $5,000, Fred Smith played blackjack in Las Vegas against odds that favor the casino and won $27,000. Annie Duke calls judging a decision by how it turned out "resulting."

Show Notes

Matt Affleck went all in with two aces at the 2010 World Series of Poker as a 77% favorite and lost on the last card. With FedEx down to $5,000, Fred Smith played blackjack in Las Vegas against odds that favor the casino and won $27,000. Annie Duke calls judging a decision by how it turned out "resulting."

Featuring: Matt Affleck, Fred Smith, Annie Duke, Zhuge Liang

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Chapters:

(00:00) Zhuge Liang on planning and Heaven
(00:06) Companies that lose money to win a market
(00:14) Matt Affleck's aces at the 2010 World Series of Poker
(00:39) Fred Smith's blackjack bet to keep FedEx alive
(01:08) Annie Duke on resulting
(01:24) Chess, poker and the odds of success

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Creators and Guests

Host
Dru Riley
Founder of Trends.vc
DW
Guest
Dai Wei
Featured in Dru's Notes: Stop Playing Chess. Start Playing Poker..
ZL
Guest
Zhuge Liang
Featured in Dru's Notes: Stop Playing Chess. Start Playing Poker..

What is Dru's Notes?

One mental model each day in a few minutes. Habits, business, building products and thinking clearly. From Dru Riley, founder of Trends.vc.

"Planning a thing lies with man. Accomplishing it lies with Heaven."
Zhuge Liang

A few days ago I wrote about companies that lose money to win a market.

Those companies were playing poker.

Matt Affleck made the right bet at the 2010 World Series of Poker. He held two aces. He pushed all his chips in against Jonathan Duhamel's two jacks.

With one card left to come, Affleck was a 77% favorite.

The last card was an eight. It gave Duhamel a straight.

Affleck went out in 15th place.

Affleck's chips gave Duhamel the chip lead. Duhamel went on to win the title.

At the poker table I can make the best decision and lose when the dealer turns over the final card.

Fred Smith took a bet the casino was likely to win to keep FedEx alive. FedEx was down to $5,000 when General Dynamics turned down his pitch for more money. On the way home he played blackjack in Las Vegas and won $27,000.

The odds favored the casino.

Smith won anyway, then went on to raise $11 million from investors.

Annie Duke played poker for a living before she wrote books about decisions. In How to Decide, she calls judging a decision by how it turned out "resulting."

Affleck's bet was right and it lost. Smith's was wrong and it won.

When you make a good decision and get a bad outcome, you'll be tempted to call it a bad decision.

Chess is a game of perfect information. Poker (and life) are games of odds.

What could you do to raise your odds of success?