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This month, Tony is joined by Giles and Roohi for a wide-ranging discussion on the economic and market developments shaping investor sentiment. They explore the potential impact of the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, the legal uncertainty surrounding US tariffs (1:40) and the implications of rising government bond yields 19:45).
Our experts also discuss NVIDIA’s (14:55) recent earnings and what they might reveal about the monetisation of AI, as well as the resilience of equity markets amid ongoing macroeconomic challenges. Roohi provides valuable insights into consumer behaviour (5:50) across income cohorts and regions, highlighting areas of strength and concern from the US to Latin America, Europe and India.
This podcast is brought to you by TrinityBridge – trinitybridge.com – and features Tony Whincup, Head of Investment Specialists in conversation with Giles Parkinson, Head of Equities and Roohi Siddiqui, Head of Equity Research.
We’ve created this podcast to set out possible approaches. Please do not view it as financial advice, or its content as investment recommendations. Just because an investment or an investment strategy has performed well in the past, it does not mean it will continue to do so. Our predictions are based on information that is currently available, however events and markets can and do change rapidly.
We’ve created this podcast to set out possible approaches. Please do not view it as financial advice, or its content as investment recommendations. Just because an investment or an investment strategy has performed well in the past, it does not mean it will continue to do so. Our predictions are based on information that is currently available, however events and markets can and do change rapidly.
Creators and Guests
What is Insight Talks?
Our in-house experts share our views on the current market conditions facing investors. Brought to you by TrinityBridge.
We've created this podcast to set out possible approaches. Please do not view it as financial advice or its content as investment recommendations. Just because an investment or investment strategy has performed well in the past does not mean that it will continue to do so. Our predictions are based on information that is currently available. However, events and markets can and do change rapidly.
Tony Whincup:Hello, and welcome to Insight Talks, your monthly update on the investment world from Trinity Bridge. I'm Tony Winkup, and coming up in the next twenty minutes or so, all eyes on the Fed. What chance a rate cut in September? Markets seem to think it's a shoo in. Government bonds have been selling off.
Tony Whincup:We'll look at the causes and consequences of what appears to be a global shift. AI darling NVIDIA has recently reported, how did it go? How did investors respond? What does it mean more generally for the outlook of artificial intelligence? We'll look at the chip designers' recent earnings.
Tony Whincup:Equity markets, you won't have missed it. They've been hitting all time highs again, but why? Good fundamentals? Is it FOMO? Is it complacency?
Tony Whincup:We'll take a look. But first, let's start with tariffs. And joining me in the studio today to dig deeper, Rui Siddiqui, head of equity research. Rui, really good to see you again.
Roohi Siddiqui:Hi, Tony. Thank you for having me.
Tony Whincup:Always a pleasure. And Giles Parkinson, head
Giles Parkinson:of equities. Welcome back. Hey, Tony. Good to
Tony Whincup:see you. Good to see you too. Giles, let's let's kick off then. It's been a key pillar really of president Trump's economic policy, tariffs, along with sort of tax cuts in the one big beautiful bill, culling migration, etcetera. It's hit the buffers a bit temporarily at least.
Tony Whincup:So just bring us up to date with where we are on that.
Giles Parkinson:Sure, Tony. So what's actually happened? We've got this US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, bit of a mouthful. The acronym here, alphabet soup, is CAFC. So this is a this is an appeal court, a lower court, in America.
Giles Parkinson:That's rejected Trump's use of executive powers to invoke tariffs, really saying that usually, you can only invoke tariffs for economic emergencies such as sanctions and freezing criminal assets under the route that the route that Trump's administration chose, which was the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Quite a few acronyms, as you said. IEEPA, for keeping up at home. So, net net summary, Trump tried to impose tariffs using a certain route, and that's been, denied in the court. So what next?
Giles Parkinson:The US Supreme Court, this is the highest court, in land, has allowed the tariffs to remain in force, whilst the executive branch appeals, which they're expected to do so in the next few weeks. And then the US Supreme Court will likely hear that appeal case, potentially in October. However, Tony, potentially not decide on on the on their conclusion until next year.
Tony Whincup:Yes. It's certainly sort of a period of more uncertainty heaped onto the uncertainty that we've we've we've had. I think what's really interesting for me, Giles, is that that Trump's been using tariffs to kind of force policy changes. Right? It's this idea that might is right.
Tony Whincup:The end justify the means. If you need to cajole, cajole, bully, bully, let everyone fall into line. What happens if the courts pull the rug under the tariffs and governments have entered into sort of bilateral trade deals with The US? Where does it where does it
Giles Parkinson:leave them? Yeah. So in a sense, the court process is slightly behind the bilateral trade deals and and so on. Look, Tony, if they signed a deal, then they signed a deal. Although this whole IEEPA and the court hold up there and the and the appeals and council appeals does mean that for those countries who haven't, potentially, the Trump administration is gonna have to use other routes to legitimize tariffs even if ultimately, we'll probably know sometime next year, even if the Supreme Court sides with that lower court, the CAFC.
Giles Parkinson:What are Trump's other options? So if the IEEPA tariffs avoided, there are still alternative routes. Now he's used one of these in quite extensive detail. The jargon here is section two thirty two, so that's tariffs coming out of the executive branch on national security grounds. There are some other sections that Trump and his team can potentially use more.
Giles Parkinson:Section three three eight, discrimination against US trade. Section one two two, balance of payments. Section three zero one, unfair trade practices. Now all of these are have certain precedents in terms of who's been a target, what type of country, what sort of practices or precedents or ex excuses have they been wheeled out in the past. But look, Tony, I think for now, investors are just happy that we've got less uncertainty after the chaos of April, and this whole court legal process is probably gonna rumble on in the background.
Giles Parkinson:And it's not clear that actually it's gonna change, any ultimate tariff outcome. You don't
Tony Whincup:think there'll be a resolution even in in q one of next year? I mean, this is just gonna be, you know,
Giles Parkinson:a backbeat to the markets. Yeah. We'll we'll get a resolution on this IEEPA strand, Tony. Yeah. But then, you know, there are other, tariffs in the Trump toolbox that, could potentially be, deployed.
Giles Parkinson:Rui, I'll bring you in on on this point.
Tony Whincup:I mean, we're deep into the weeds there. It's technical. It's super important. It's really interesting, you know, the the sections and the different legal avenues that Trump may pursue. That's a little bit conceptual for most listeners, I'd I'd wager.
Tony Whincup:So, you know, on the ground, consumers, businesses, what are you picking up? Sometimes with with real world data in terms of, you know, the impact that tariffs are having, how consumers are feeling and the like.
Roohi Siddiqui:So, Tony, consumer sentiment in The US has softened this year. There's been some improvement over the summer months, but consumer confidence is lower than it has been over the past two years. Unemployment levels in The US have tracked up slightly over the last couple of years as well, but are still relatively low, around 4.2%. For the most part, wage growth is outpacing inflation, but remember that it's the compounding effects of inflation over the last few years exceeding overall wage growth, especially among low income consumers. So that's a good segue for us to perhaps talk about how different income cohorts are behaving.
Roohi Siddiqui:In The US, within the different income cohorts, we see that the high end consumer remains the most resilient, which is unsurprising. Sure. Yep. And likely also helped by the rise in equity markets, crypto, etcetera. The middle income consumer is seeing more stress, albeit some company commentary suggests a slightly better second quarter versus the first.
Roohi Siddiqui:The lower income consumer, that's where we see the most stress. Right? It's been under pressure for the last two years. And frankly, on the positive side for retail spend, it's really driven by the high and middle income consumer cohorts in The US, and that's probably why the retail spend date has been broadly resilient.
Tony Whincup:So you've had some prices going up, I guess, as hurting, different cohorts of the population.
Roohi Siddiqui:Absolutely, and disproportionately so.
Tony Whincup:Yep.
Roohi Siddiqui:So prices have gone up in The US, and are likely to rise further. In discretionary categories that have seen price increases, what's interesting is that retailers like Walmart have called out a moderation in volumes at the item level. So what we're seeing is consumers are switching to other items or categories. And in general, the consumer is looking for greater value for money, and I think that's something that resonates very strongly with us as well. Right?
Tony Whincup:Absolutely. Yeah. For sure.
Roohi Siddiqui:And, Tony, it kind of goes back to my earlier point, which is how much inflation the consumers had to deal with over the past few years. Right? With grocery baskets alone up around 30%. So, if we look at the the retail
Tony Whincup:Sorry. I'm just gonna stop you on that point. It's it's as much as the inflation, it's about inflation sensitivity, isn't it? I think that post COVID, people are just much more sensitive to the notion of inflation than they were before.
Roohi Siddiqui:Exactly, because for a long time in developed markets, we hadn't seen very much inflation, so I think that's what we're having to get used to for the first time, And for perhaps the younger generation, this might even be the first time in their lives they're actually seeing such significant amounts of inflation. And, ironically, they are the ones with the least amount of disposable income.
Tony Whincup:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Sorry.
Tony Whincup:Derailed you. Carry on. What was your train of thought?
Roohi Siddiqui:So my train of thought was just really if you look at the retail and the import data, and we talked about the import data earlier in the year as well, the basically, what's happened is consumers took the the the decision to pull forward spend for items that were likely to be subject to tariffs. So that just means that there's less room for them to spend for the remainder of the year. So we're seeing consumers also in in the sort of credit and debit card data that we that we look at, they continue to prioritize travel and leisure spend. And that's been a consistent trend post pandemic, right? It's this you only live once mentality.
Roohi Siddiqui:And therefore, is seeing pressure, and that tends to be your consumer staples items, and people are just running down inventories at home.
Tony Whincup:And people are what? People are just sitting on massive hoards of whatever it is that they could stock up because they've got big houses, and they're still running that down?
Roohi Siddiqui:Well, it's what they're running down has been more on the sort of staple side, so, you know, your personal care items, your your food items to some extent, and they have also made some choices, I. E. That they're not eating out as much, they're eating at home more, there's cooking from scratch more. So it just feels that some areas of spend, like travel, have quite resilient because consumers still want to experience positive things. Right?
Roohi Siddiqui:The point around more discretionary items coming in, sort of big ticket items, I think it comes down to the income cohort, because clearly, you know, for middle income cohorts, there's only so many of these things that they can afford.
Tony Whincup:Okay. So you've made a few notes as well. You've got some weakness in the Hispanic sort of, population in The US. China's still soft. India, you know, a relative bright spot.
Tony Whincup:So it's a real sort of mixed bag just generally, isn't it, in terms of how these, crosscurrents are playing out?
Roohi Siddiqui:Totally is. So actually, your your point around the Hispanic consumer is really interesting. Right? Because the Hispanic consumer sentiment has been under pressure this year with worries about immigration. And this demographic has been an important growth driver for The US for the past few years, and in fact, it's been a total focus for consumer companies as a result.
Roohi Siddiqui:So what we're seeing is buy rates are coming down for this cohort. That brings us to some consumer softness reported in LatAm by consumer companies. In Mexico, something really interesting to look at is the the level of remittances from The US down year on year. It's still very high relative to history, but over the last years, this has been an important growth driver in support for the Mexican consumer. And then finally, just around tariff uncertainty, and I I know we'll talk about that a bit later, it's completely dented consumer sentiment, not just in Mexico, but also in markets, like Brazil.
Roohi Siddiqui:And to your point, outside of LatAm, China's still soft. Yeah. Seeing a deterioration, but it's not really improved. The European and UK consumers continue to demonstrate value seeking behaviour. India is the bright spot, and actually the recent move to reduce GST, which is their version of VAT, is likely to boost consumer demand further, so that's really interesting.
Tony Whincup:Okay, Giles, I'm going to bring you back in just in a minute, but Giles, Rui, just a really brief comment, just in the interest of time, just sort of on the health of the consumer generally in The US, you know, it's like two thirds 70% of US GDP, and that's important for the global economy. So, yeah, what do you make of that?
Roohi Siddiqui:So, look, in terms of tariffs, I think we're in a better situation than we were before when it comes to the consumer exposed sectors. So spirits, it's very clear that the tariff situation is better than what we thought at the beginning of the year, that's positive. For luxury, which is the other sector that's really impacted, remember, the manufacturing takes place in France and Italy, and prices have started to increase. But the level of price increases are more like low single digit, mid single digit, so they're quite manageable, especially because these goods have tended to be quite price inelastic. But ultimately, look, the key message here is tariffs per se are not an issue.
Roohi Siddiqui:It's really the uncertainty about the level that's that's been the issue, and we will get more clarity on all of this over time.
Tony Whincup:Yeah. That's a that's a good segue, Giles, because because I mentioned at the outset we want to talk about equity markets hitting all time highs. We had a we had the low, I think, post Liberation Day on April 8. It took just fifty five days to retrace that and make a new all time high at the June. We're about 10% north of that now.
Giles Parkinson:You know, is the are the equity markets over their skis, frankly? Yeah. I'd say not for three reasons, Tony. The first is, you know, bear in mind that that journey. We've now got much less tariff uncertainty.
Giles Parkinson:And importantly within that, we haven't got this de facto China trade, embargo, which, was in place for a short period of time. So that's one tick in the box. Second one, quietly in the background, corporate profits are still growing. Corporate profits ultimately are gonna drive the long run return out of equities, so that's still happening in the background. And then just lastly, Tony, third point, we've got the restart or the recommencing of Fed rate cuts is rapidly coming into view.
Giles Parkinson:Listeners, cast your minds back until until last year. The Fed began to cut in September 24. They actually went on pause in December 24. They've been on hold throughout all of '25. But now actually, because of the unfolding economic data that we've had in The US, now actually the latest communication from the Fed chair at the Jackson Hole conference in August was effectively they expect to restart the pace of cutting in in September in just two weeks' time.
Giles Parkinson:Rui, do you agree with that? It's it's based on fundamentals. Economy is still growing. It's it's not FOMO. It's not fear of missing out.
Tony Whincup:It's not old fashioned greed. It's not complacency. Everything is is alright. Gross resilient enough. Inflation's coming down.
Tony Whincup:Tariffs, well, there's exemptions, reprieves, and carve outs, and we'll find a way around it. What what do do you agree with Giles?
Roohi Siddiqui:I I completely agree with Giles. I I I mean, I think that's absolutely right, Tony, and and and we're we're probably in a better place than we were, I would say, six months ago.
Tony Whincup:Okay. Alright. Let's and part of this sort of equity market story has been NVIDIA. It's, you know, an AI darling. It's a a chip designer.
Tony Whincup:It was the first company to to breach that 4,000,000,000,000 US dollar, valuation. So large, in fact, it's about 8% of the S and P 500. So whether you're interested in it from an AI perspective or just from a market perspective, active or passive, is a big deal. What did the market make of its recent, q two earnings, Giles?
Giles Parkinson:Yeah. Great question, Tony. So the quarterly revenues beat the official published, sell side average, expectation. However, passing within it, data centers, which is effectively the AI end market, actually missed that sell side consensus. Looking ahead, the guidance for future was slightly light of expectations, Although, actually, on that management did clarify that it had some quite conservative assumptions around China, which effectively gets back to the geopolitical questions of the the the extent to which the most advanced chips are allowed to be freely exported in into China.
Giles Parkinson:So net net, more of the torrid pace of revenue growth that we're seeing out of that company. Mhmm. Although, thinking back over the last year, two years, that pace of revenue growth is decelerating, although still the absolute additions, the absolute size, you mentioned that 4,000,000,000,000 of market cap. Right? You know, there's there's $4,050,000,000,000 dollars of, quarterly revenue, that it's still a company growing at pace, but just at the margin, the pace of growth is is decelerating.
Giles Parkinson:And does what investors thought, well, we can only really infer that from the price action, Tony. Of course. Yeah. After the event, stock is down at the time that we're talking now. Stock is down 66% from its pre results closing price.
Giles Parkinson:Mhmm. Although, at that pre results closing price, was effectively at an all time high. So nothing to really scare the market, I don't think. The company is still growing. AI is still a burgeoning market.
Giles Parkinson:But, yes, there's just one or two ever so slight question marks as to how much growth and when.
Tony Whincup:Again, it comes back. It's, thanks, Jos. It really, I'll I'll bring you in because it you get this kind of sense of AI in a conceptual sense. I know a lot of people use it now in their everyday lives, but what are you picking up? The the companies again on the ground are using AI to to to gain efficiencies or work differently, that that there's evidence that companies are, in the real world, are monetizing the AI price beyond the CapEx from of companies that are, you know, heavily invested already?
Roohi Siddiqui:Well, Tony, that's a great question. I think that there are tremendous developments happening on the sort of consumer company side of things as well. So one of the points I'd make is just around it is early days, and there'll be a lot more to come, But but right now, two examples. So firstly, when it comes to content creation for marketing, particularly on digital, it has become a lot easier through AI, a lot more efficient, and that means that companies can then free up that spend and reinvest it into more consumer facing marketing or other parts of their business to reinvigorate growth. That's really exciting, and we're seeing more and more companies do that.
Roohi Siddiqui:And here, I think it's very much a scale game, you know, if you've got deep pockets, you can sort of invest more behind this this theme. Yeah. The second example, which is really it'll bring it home for, you know, those of us, the world at large, right, consuming beverages. So in emerging markets, for example, but also in developed markets, you've got mom and pop stores, right? These are the small shops owned by small retailers rather than the big chains.
Roohi Siddiqui:And here, what you're seeing is increasing deployment of AI. So basically, the sales rep goes in, waves waves waves their their device around, quickly takes photos of what's on the shelf, immediately sees where the gaps are, has the retailer merchandised properly, and then the conversation with the retailer is very much more about upselling them products, making sure that they've got the right thing. So it's very much more a commercial conversation rather than worrying about, well, we've got to replenish the shelf.
Tony Whincup:I mean, that's that's I mean, Giles, that sort of thing I just find astounding, don't you? It's like, you sold out mean, it's obviously you sold out of, I don't know, noodles or whatever, but, you know, let's really, really target kind of the market. Yes, quite.
Giles Parkinson:And I think that this is the interesting thing about AI, is just the ongoing pace, scope of different applications so that it's possible to use it in, definitely. Okay. I mean, we've spoken about the equity markets at all
Tony Whincup:time highs. We've sort of touched on Nvidia, a big part of the market. One thing that can definitely derail a good equity market story is the bond market. The so called bond vigilantes come out. They demand a higher premium to lend to governments.
Tony Whincup:We've seen that happen recently. Some of the government, bond market has sold off. Yields have risen. It's it's causing a bit of pain for governments, we're seeing that in The UK. There's some edginess and nervousness there.
Tony Whincup:So, what's going on? How easily can equity markets sort of digest what's going on in the bond markets?
Giles Parkinson:Yeah. So, just to recap what you've outlined there, Tony. So, yes, sovereign bond yields, government bond yields have risen around the world pretty much everywhere last month. Now they've actually gone up the most in France and The UK, followed by Japan and Germany, and then, laterally, the yields in The US are still higher, but it's, one of the smaller moves, out of bigger countries. And generally, in terms of the absolute level of these sovereign bond yields, they're actually the highest yields this century.
Giles Parkinson:I mean, it depends a bit on the country, right, and their precise year, but generally, bond yields, sovereign bond yields around the world are the highest they've been, for the last twenty five years. Now, actually, I'm sorry to report, Tony, it's actually quite hard to identify a catalyst for this.
Tony Whincup:Gotta be politics has gotta be in there a little bit.
Giles Parkinson:Fiscal approaches. Yeah. Definitely. So that's why I sort of called out The UK and France Yeah. As having seen the biggest increase in their sovereign bond yields.
Giles Parkinson:That's frankly because out of the G7 nations, they got the biggest budget deficits and somewhat shaky plans to reduce them, although we do now have a date for the awesome budget here here in The UK. The other aspect going on as to that ordering as to whose bond yields were up the most also partly reflects central bank policy. So the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have actually slowed or signaled that they're potentially gonna slow the pace of their cutting. Now all else equal, that's lifted long end yields in the Eurozone European countries, France, Germany, and The UK, slightly more than in contrast to The US where, to touch back on a previous conversation that we were having, that they're about to resume cutting interest rates this month. All else equal, that helps actually bring yields down.
Giles Parkinson:So it's been hard to put your finger on a net on a catalyst for it. There's just these general concerns. We can sort of look at one or two countries and kind of explain sort of relative movements, but, yes, it has been around the world an upward drift in sovereign bond yields over the last month. Does it matter for equity investors? Not really, as long as the sell offs are orderly.
Giles Parkinson:Instead, my opinion, what I think matters far more for markets and for equity markets in in particular are the actions of the Fed. Are they actually gonna start cussing in September this month? And after that, how much follow through is there gonna be? What do
Tony Whincup:you think, Rui? Started at the beginning saying all eyes on the Fed, 100% consensus that there's gonna be a rate cut in September. That personally bothers me. It's a bit of a red red flag if consensus is that strong. Is the Fed gonna cut?
Tony Whincup:Should they cut?
Roohi Siddiqui:I don't think they've got much of a choice left, Tony. I think they were looking at the the the the recent data, and I think that's given them a good opportunity to cut rates and save face at the same time, but I think the Fed is under tremendous political pressure, so I think they've got to be seen to be doing something to stimulate consumer demand. And you look at things like sentiment data, it's very clear there's been a deterioration year to date, right? So I think they feel like they need to do something. We'll see.
Tony Whincup:Joe, yeah, I mean, Giles, I'm coming to you, but I mean, that's a fair point, but inflation is still 1% above target pretty much.
Giles Parkinson:It is. Yes. But, Tony, remember why is that inflation above target? It's because of tariffs. And, the Fed, they did a study back in, 2018.
Giles Parkinson:It was, the last time actually that we had some Trump tariffs, coming through, although much, much smaller in scale now. They published the findings in something called the Teal Book, and that effectively laid out their economic framework or their reaction function, how they, as monetary policy setters, would respond to an increase in in inflation because of tariffs, and there, the the the conclusion was that they would look through them because it's a one off upward shift in the price level, with the caveat that it doesn't have knock on effects, maybe again a little bit of the discussion around consumer behavior, right? Yeah. Yeah. It's just in terms of what's out there on the street in the world, there's more of a inflation's just more a part of the conversation.
Giles Parkinson:So with that caveat, that's why and the Fed is just trying to, I think, balance two sides of its mandate here. It knows that inflation is rising as measured, However, it's not running away from us. But on the other hand, there has been some, some very soft, payroll prints, for the, employment side, of their mandate. So net net, I think it's right for them to turn their attention to that.
Tony Whincup:So if we get if we get that cut plus no recession, that that that's gotta be positive for markets, I I I guess. But if
Giles Parkinson:they don't, it would not be positive for markets. But let's see, right?
Tony Whincup:I mean, you have three or four words there. Three or four words, Charles. I thought you were gonna give me a bit more than that. It wouldn't be positive,
Giles Parkinson:would it? Because there's a 100% consensus. But, again, the fundamentals to our earlier conversations are supportive of the longer term structural story here, and there's other legs up that we can look at that that potentially can, you know, sustain this rally longer. Right? Yeah.
Giles Parkinson:Quite. Just on that 100% figure, Tony, that, that is the average of the overall, actions within the very short term bond market. Actually, under the hood, it's something like 20% of the crowd are expecting two cuts. In other words, quasi recessionary or, you know, the Fed thinks it's behind the curve in, the jargon. They need to crack on with the job in hand.
Giles Parkinson:Maybe 80 expecting one cut and, 20% expecting zero cuts. All else equal, net net, we know from history that equity markets, and corporate bond spreads respond very favorably to that dual combination of soft landing of the Fed cutting interest rates when the economy is not in recession, and, potentially, that gets confirmed. It's been heavily signaled in in August. We've had the data falling into place, but if it's confirmed in September, all else equal expect that to be taken well by equity markets and corporate bond markets, even though arithmetically it's already priced. Yeah.
Giles Parkinson:And for anyone listening thinking, you know, why you're not talking about the BOE, it looks in The UK that we're unlikely to get a a rate cut, you
Tony Whincup:know, by the end of this year and and possibly only one, I think, in the next twelve months. Okay. Need to wrap up, Rui. Look ahead. Yeah.
Tony Whincup:How are you feeling about the the the run into the end of the year?
Roohi Siddiqui:So I think, Tony, that there are areas of optimism. Right? Earlier this year, we said that we were likely to model through the rest of the year as best we could. That continues to be the case. I think as we look ahead to next year, if uncertainty around tariffs is further reduced and interest rates start to come down at last, I think we could see improved consumer sentiment, right, that could translate into better demand patterns into next year and beyond.
Roohi Siddiqui:So I feel cautiously optimistic looking ahead. I think it also goes back to what we discussed earlier in the year around looking at companies with good business models and attractive valuations. All comes back to that at the end of the day.
Giles Parkinson:Giles? Wouldn't have anything to disagree with that, Rui, here there, Tony. Definitely got a cautiously optimistic stance. Corporate profits are growing, provided with the caveat there's no curveballs coming out of the Trump administration. Could be on tariffs, could be on another aspect of geopolitics, what what's Russia up to and so on, and investors will have the good tailwinds of a Fed cutting interest rates at their back.
Giles Parkinson:So all else equal, over the short term, it's more of a constructive setup. Very good. I mean, I would say we should expect a few curveballs with the Trump administration. It's, you know, just an everyday kind of occurrence. Really, really good to
Tony Whincup:get your thoughts. Giles, great to speak to you. Great to have a bit of a a a powwow there. Thanks everyone for listening. If you like it, please share it or comment.
Tony Whincup:On our socials, you can visit trinitybridge.com for more investor insights across print, TV, podcasts, etcetera. Look out for our UK budget coverage. That's on the November 26 and after. There's so much at stake. We've just touched on that just ever so slightly today.
Tony Whincup:So, yeah, that's it. See you next month when your usual host, James Tullock, will be back. Thank you. Thanks very much, Tony.
Roohi Siddiqui:Thanks, Tony.