CropGPT - Sugar

The weekly report on the global Sugar market for week 21. Brought to you by CropGPT

Show Notes

This week’s episode offers a detailed snapshot of key developments in the global sugar sector, focusing on pricing pressures, policy responses, and production forecasts across major producing and consuming regions.
  • India: The State Sugarcane Cultivators Association has proposed increasing the fair and remunerative price (FRP) for sugarcane to ₹4,500 per ton, citing misalignment with production costs. Farmers are also requesting a share of byproduct revenues and urging transparency in weighing procedures at mills. Pest outbreaks in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar’s plan to establish an international research center signal both ongoing challenges and proactive steps to modernize the industry.
  • Brazil: USDA-FAS projects a 2.3% year-on-year increase in sugar output for 2025/26, reaching 44.7 million metric tons, while Brazil’s Conab forecasts an even higher figure of 45.875 million tons. However, April data revealed a 38.6% monthly drop in production due to unfavorable weather, tempering short-term optimism.
  • Thailand: Sugar output rose 14% year-over-year to 10 million metric tons for the 2024/25 season, contributing to global supply pressure and a potentially bearish outlook for prices.
  • Pakistan: Domestic sugar prices have surged, with mills selling above government-set rates. Retailers are pushing back, threatening to suspend sugar sales unless wholesale prices are regulated.
  • South Africa: Regulatory reforms may soon allow direct contracts between sugar retailers and growers/millers, aimed at strengthening local industry resilience and safeguarding over one million jobs.
  • The Philippines: Production is projected to increase nearly 5% in 2024/25, supported by expanded harvest areas and government-led stabilization efforts, despite ongoing drought conditions.

What is CropGPT - Sugar?

Sugar news, weather, pricing, production and predictions

Speaker 1:

Welcome to the weekly summary of the global sugar market for 05/25/2025. For more information on any aspect of this report, please visit the CropGPT website for far more detailed reporting and analysis. In India, the State Sugarcane Cultivators Association is advocating for an adjustment of the fair and remunerative price for sugarcane for the season to Rs. 4,500 per ton, aligning with CACP report recommendations, emphasizing that current rates do not cover production costs. They also seek a share in revenue from sugarcane byproducts, flagging an outstanding Rs $9.50 crores owed by mills.

Speaker 1:

Additionally, they are calling for transparency in processes through the installation of weighing machines at mills. Meanwhile, the black bug outbreak in Uttar Pradesh has elicited responses involving chemical and biological treatments. Bihar aims to establish an international sugarcane research center to advance cultivation and offer farmers modern techniques. In Brazil, sugar production is set to grow, with the United States Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service predicting a 2.3% increase to 44,700,000 metric tons for twenty twenty five-twenty six. Conab is slightly more optimistic, forecasting production at 45,875,000 metric tons.

Speaker 1:

Nevertheless, April '6 saw a significant 38.6% drop in output to 1,580,000 metric tons due to adverse weather. Thailand's sugar production reached 10 sieg million metric tons for the twenty twenty four SHA-twenty five season, marking a 14% increase year on year, potentially affecting global sugar prices with a bearish outlook due to this increased supply. In Pakistan, sugar prices have surged, prompting grocery retailers to threaten cessation of sugar sales if wholesale prices are not controlled. Currently, mills are selling at Ars hundred and 74 per kilogram, above the official price of Ars 164 per kilogram set by the government, contributing to the price reaching Ars 180 per kilogram in the open market. In South Africa, potential regulation changes may permit direct negotiations between retailers and sugarcane growers and millers, fostering local over imported sugar.

Speaker 1:

This initiative could preserve over a million jobs and stabilize the industry, especially in rural KwaZulu Natal and Mampumalanga. Finally, The Philippines anticipates a nearly 5% increase in sugar production for the twenty twenty four-twenty twenty five crop year, reaching 1,837,000 metric tons, fueled by enhanced harvested areas and governmental efforts to stabilize prices and encourage farmer incentives, despite drought challenges. Remember, our CropGPT site contains far more details and reports about the sugar market, including crop health reports, twenty years of weather data, and even pricing data and earning call analysis. This podcast is just a few selected highlights for the week.