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Dan Hope and Andy Anders of Eleven Warriors bring you inside the Ohio State beat every Wednesday with a podcast covering everything you need to know about the Buckeyes.
Note: This transcript was AI-generated and has not been edited for errors.
[Dan Hope]
Welcome into Real Pod Wednesdays. I'm Dan Hope joined by Andy Anders on the brink of a big time of transition for both Ohio State and the Big Ten. Ohio State is going to have a new athletic director at this time next week as Gene Smith is in his final week as Ohio State's athletic director before he passes the torch over to Ross Bjork.
We of course had Gene Smith on the show last week, talked a lot about that transition last week. So if you want to hear us talk about that, go back and check out last week's episode. But this week, we're going to talk about the transition that's coming up here next week in the Big Ten as USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington, we've known for a while that they are coming to the Big Ten.
Next week is when they will officially become Big Ten members. So we thought this would be a good time for us to look at not only the impact of those four schools joining the Big Ten, but to kind of preview the conference for this year. We're now just about two months away from football season.
It's coming up on us fast here, Andy. A good time for us to take a look around the conference at the competition Ohio State is going to face from those other 17 teams in the conference, including four new ones from the West Coast.
[Andy Anders]
It's a weird feeling to have this many teams in the conference this year. And I'll be very interested to see how the first year with a conference this size plays out in terms of the standings, how many teams are vying for those two conference championship game spots at the end of the year, how does it influence, you know, how many key games there are, how many big games there are down the stretch of the season. For me, you know, when I think about Big Ten expansion, I've always felt this sort of pro and con pull of it.
It's it's definitely good for like this is a money generated thing, right? Money drives a lot of things in sports decision making in life. And clearly this monetarily made a lot of sense for the Big Ten to add these four brands up those media rights deals even more, get those big contracts and just generate more revenue as a conference.
It's also good from a competitive perspective, right? I think as a fan, you want to see more games. And as we move to this expanded playoff or I mean, more marquee games rather.
But as we move to this expanded playoff, too, there's more wiggle room to lose games. And I think you can afford to play some really tough schedules that these tougher conferences, you know, the Big Ten and the SEC have been building and might be continuing to build even depending on, you know, teams that could get added in the future. You can now afford to play these really tough schedules and have more of these marquee opponents on the docket and still make a playoff, still have a chance at a national title.
It's clear that the landscape of college football is moving more toward that NFL model. And these conference realignments that are now taking hold this year are kind of the first bastion of that, I think. On the other hand, I think it does lose some of the regionality that made college football was one of the things that made college football special, right?
The Big Ten was always Midwest teams. And then, you know, you started adding, you know, sort of New Jersey in there, Nebraska in there. It still was kind of in the footprint.
Now, the footprint's just the whole country. It is literally a coast to coast conference. So that's the one aspect of it.
And that cool kind of like feel of cold football in the north and tough defenses and physical football that kind of was the Big Ten identity for a long time. That isn't what the whole conference is now. The conference is, again, it doesn't have like that specific footprint.
So that part of it, I'm kind of sad to see go. But overall, I don't know where you stand, Dan, but I do think the expansion is a good thing for the conference.
[Dan Hope]
Yeah, I think the exciting thing about it is the fact that there's going to be more competition, more compelling matchups within conference play. I mean, you think about what the Big Ten's been like the last several years. It's really felt like there's really been three playoff contenders in the conference, Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State.
Now, right away, I mean, you're adding a team in Oregon that I think is very much a playoff contender this year. You're adding a team in Washington that just went to the national championship game last year. You're adding a team in USC that's got a national championship kind of pedigree.
So I think, you know, just in terms of an overall conference. Competitiveness, number of contenders standpoints when we're talking about football, I think from that viewpoint, it's exciting. It's going to be fun to watch.
I do agree with you, but I think the regionality portion of it is something that we're losing here. We've talked about it before. I think really the bigger negative in that regard is really with the sports other than football.
We're going to talk mostly about football today, but I do think when you think about how this expansion affects all the sports, that's really where the regionality aspect of it bothers me more, because without even getting into the non-revenue sports, if we just focus on even men's basketball, like what is really gained from Ohio State going to play Oregon and Washington in basketball during regular season?
I mean, yeah, like having like UCLA in the end will be cool, but like most of these matchups, are you really getting anything out of that, the additional travel that's going to be factored into that? These moves were obviously driven by football, and I don't think they really make a lot of sense for any sport other than football. But even in football, I mean, it's certainly going to be different.
Like it's going to be, to your point, it's going to be weird when you see a Minnesota go to Los Angeles to play UCLA in November. Like, you know, you think of a team like that playing in cold weather football in November. It's going to look a little bit different in that regard, for sure.
And I think, you know, for me, like we've had plenty of time to like get used to this reality now. So like it no longer feels like all that jarring that all that these four teams are joining the Big Ten. But I don't know if it's really going to hit hit us that these teams are in the Big Ten until we get into the season and every week these teams are playing Midwestern team.
You think about like Ohio State, Oregon, like that's a big deal. But like we were supposed to go to Oregon a few years ago, like that would have been a very realistic. It was a non-conference matchup that was going to happen at some point, even if they didn't join the conference.
Even that doesn't feel crazy. It's going to be when UCLA is flying to Rutgers to play a conference game in the middle of October. I think that's when it's really going to hit us like, yeah, this is different.
[Andy Anders]
It's definitely a weird feeling to to have that sort of just flying all over the country to play games on a weekend, week out basis in the Big Ten. You know, we're used to every almost everything being in driving distance, except maybe Nebraska and, you know, might might fly to Maryland or Rutgers or something. But it's just a crazy world we're living in in the sport these days where conferences, there's just not that, again, that regionality to them.
Now, there's a lot of angst over the possibility of Ohio State and Michigan playing in back to back weeks with this. And I think the new model of how the conference championship is determined, it makes sense to me. But from that perspective, of course, it's tough.
But it's also going to be a lot more competition, as I kind of referenced earlier, to get into those top two spots in the conference. Now, Ohio State has mostly only had to worry about Michigan and Penn State in recent years. Now you've got to contend with Oregon, with potentially Washington, with USC.
I think Oregon's probably the most relevant team to mention in that discussion for this year. But in the future, I don't think USC is going to be down for very long, especially under Lincoln Reilly. And I think it's going to be rare that you repeat, not necessarily repeat an opponent during the season because good teams are going to play other good teams and you might end up having a rematch at some point.
But that you repeat the two teams that are in the conference championship game year over year in the Big Ten because of how competitive it's going to be. Even if Ohio State's in it a decent amount of the time, that second team is probably going to rotate a good bit, I would think. And, you know, it did that a little bit in the Big Ten West just because the Big Ten West was so mediocre, I guess, to put it lightly.
But that's another thing, too, is I'm kind of really curious to see what parity looks like in the conference. And will the powers that be your Ohio State's, your Michigan's, your Oregon's, your USC's, Penn State, Washington may be in that mix. Will they be able to keep a stranglehold on everybody else or will other teams rise and try to get in that mix and contend for, if not conference titles, a college football playoff spot?
Because look, I think a lot of years, three, four Big Ten teams are going to be in the college football playoff. So there's value in being just in that top echelon, even if you're not making conference championship games. So that's another interesting thing.
I look for as this expansion takes hold.
[Dan Hope]
Yeah, I think when people talk about the margin for error increasing, it certainly is in terms of a college football playoff. But in terms of winning the Big Ten, I don't think it's really increasing all that much. I think people look at it and go, well, you know, Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State are now competing for two spots instead of one.
But they also have to compete now, Oregon and Washington and USC for those spots. So, you know, the margin for error there is if you lose one conference game, like you're no longer going to necessarily control your own destiny. Because the other thing about this now with this new Big Ten structure is you're no longer in a division where you're going to play every team in your division.
There's going to be a lot of teams in the division you don't play. So you could theoretically lose one game and get left out without having a chance to get back in. You could have two teams that don't play you, that both run the table against their respective schedules.
So I think the margin for error, you know, the way in which it's increased is that Ohio State and Michigan are no longer playing for just one spot, but they're going to have a lot of competition for those two spots. And so at some point it is inevitable we are going to see the scenario where Ohio State and Michigan play in back-to-back weeks. I just don't think it's going to happen all that often because I think there's so much competition now in the conference and the fact that those two teams are guaranteed to play each other and at least one of them is going to hand the other one a loss just decreases the likelihood that they're both going to get into that conference championship game.
So I don't think it's going to be very common that we get into a situation where Ohio State and Michigan are both going into that game and they both locked up Big Ten championship spots because there's 16 other teams in the conference there where unless they're undefeated and everybody else has lost multiple games, there's going to be other scenarios at play going into that final week. So I think it's going to be I think it's going to be real interesting. And I think in some respects, it's not even going to hit us how much it's changed until we actually get into the meat of the season, but it's going to be a very different feel this year in terms of that race to get into the Big Ten championship game.
And I think it's going to be a lot of fun to watch. And a lot of that is because of these new teams that are joining the conference. And I think particularly start with Oregon, because you look at Oregon, I think, you know, Oregon is a very real, you know, not only playoff contender, maybe even national championship contender kind of team.
When you look at the roster that they've built, I think they could have the Big Ten's best offense. Dylan Gabriel coming in there from Oklahoma, he might be the Big Ten's best quarterback. They've got a great backup as well.
And former five-star recruit Dante Moore, who transferred in from UCLA. They've got, you know, a veteran offensive line. They've got a lot of weapons to work with.
Evan Stewart and Tez Johnson, that's going to be one of the best one-two punches in the country at wide receiver. They've got a really good running back tandem and Jordan James and Noah Whittington, and the defense should be very good too. So I continue to circle that Ohio state Oregon game on October 12th as maybe the game of a year in the conference, you know, other than that Ohio state Michigan game that we're of course all anticipating.
But I've said it before, I'll say it again. I think there's a very good chance that Ohio state Oregon game on October 12th is going to end up being a Big Ten championship game preview.
[Andy Anders]
Yeah, either a preview or a play in for the Big Ten championship, depending on how everything shakes out in the conference to me, I think Oregon's a top five, even maybe top three team in the country, very high on them. And you know, Ohio state had an incredible transfer portal class. Oregon was right up there with Evan Stewart at receiver, former five-star prospect.
You mentioned him going to be part of a really dynamic one-two punch there, but also adding some pieces on defense, Jabbar Muhammad, a multi-year starter at corner who had three picks last year. You have Jamari Caldwell who had six and a half sacks as a 325 pound defensive tackle. This is an Oregon team that added a lot to, like Ohio state, they added a lot to a team that was already returning a lot.
And so Dan Lanning is, I think one of the best coaches in the sport. I'm really high on what he can accomplish at Oregon and what this team can accomplish specifically. And they were top 10 and a lot of defensive categories last year to add some of those pieces to that defense.
I just think all around Oregon is right behind Ohio state. I think in terms of big 10 best teams, it's almost one, a one B because I really think that Oregon Ohio state might have a slightly more complete roster, but Oregon might be better at quarterback. There's a chance of that.
So that's going to be a really, really telling game when Ohio state flies to Oregon that weekend.
[Dan Hope]
Yeah. I think we would both agree that Ohio state has more overall talent than Oregon, but you look at those two question mark areas for Ohio state being quarterback and offensive line, Oregon is probably going to be the best team in the conference in both of those areas. So those are two key advantages that Oregon has over Ohio state, as well as the fact that Oregon's going to be hosting Ohio state and that regular season matchup.
And so while I am ultimately picking Ohio state as my pick to be the big 10 champion this year, I think Oregon is going to be very real competition for Ohio state. And I think that October 12 game for the Buckeyes is going to be a massive one. Now the question is outside of Oregon, who do you see as the next biggest threat?
[Andy Anders]
Penn state, full stop, Michigan, maybe, but I think it's Penn state because they returned so much on that defense from last year. Defensive lines going to be phenomenal with Abdul Carter or Danny Dennis Sutton, but they also returned Kobe King at linebacker. They returned their leading tackler at safety and like Penn state's been a great defense year in and year out.
That's given a lot of teams fits. Then you look on the offensive side and you've got Drew Aller entering year three. Now we all know I've been somewhat critical of Drew Aller in the past, but he's a real talent.
The question is, what can they build around him? You lost Keiondre Lambert Smith in the transfer portal. Your next best receiver from last year was a tight end who is back and we all know Penn state's legacy of tight ends, even dating back to Pat Fryer, Muth and Mike Jasicki.
But you add Julian Fleming from Ohio state, who's still got, I think, some things to prove in his college career, despite also being a five star prospect at one point. But this was a Penn state passing attack that struggled in key moments last year, notably against Ohio state, especially to really challenge. They're going to have to present some more offensive threat.
Now they have a great running back tandem, Nick Singleton, Katron Allen, two fantastic names there. Also the offensive line, you know, needs to be able to push the needle forward if you're going to have a rushing based attack and they need options on the outside. Can Julian Fleming provide that?
Maybe, but you're going to need more than one if you're to challenge the likes of Ohio state to Ohio state can throw their best corner on Fleming and then shade him with a safety and now what? Right? So you need multiple weapons for Drew Aller to get to.
And that lack of weapons is one of the main reasons he struggled so much last year. So really it's just the passing game for Penn state's offense is the number one concern I have for them, but their defense is going to keep them in most, if not all games they play this year.
[Dan Hope]
I agree with you, but I think on paper, I think Penn state is the team with the best roster, the best makeup to contend for the big 10 championship this year after Ohio state and Oregon. A lot of that, like you said, because of that defense, because of what they return at running back offensive line, I think their roster and I think wide receiver is still a big weakness for Penn state. But I think outside of that, I think, you know, they have a roster where they should be a playoff contender this year.
Now with that being said, if I'm looking at it through the lens of Ohio state of like outside of Oregon, which team concerns me the most, I'm going to Michigan because for one, you got the history of the last three years, this is a team that's beat you three years in a row. You have, you have had a lot of trouble with this team and I still think Michigan is going to be a good team this year. I don't think they're going to be a national championship contender this year, but I still think they're going to be a good team.
I mean, I think they still have a lot of talent on defense. They have maybe the best corner in the country and Will Johnson. I'd say they do have the best defensive tackle tandem in the country and Mason Graham and Kenneth Graham.
Now big injury news this spring with losing Rod Moore for the season. That was a big loss at the safety position, but they do still have a really good returning safety in McCurry page. I don't think that defense is going to be the number one defense in the country like it was last year.
I think Ohio State's defense is going to be the number one defense in the country, but I still think that defense is going to be good. I think it's going to give them a chance to win most games. The big question there, even bigger really than it is for Penn State is that quarterback.
Their projected starter Alex Orji is a very athletic quarterback, but is very unproven as a passer. And so pair him with what's also a very unproven receiving core. And also you compare that with the fact they're replacing their entire starting offensive line too.
You would project that Michigan's going to have some problems in the passing game this year. They have a dynamic running back in Donovan Edwards. They have a really good tight end in Colston Loveland, but those are really their only proven weapons and they don't have, or at least you don't think they're going to have that elite offensive line like they've had the last couple of years that they can really lean on to wear down opponents in the ground game.
And so I do expect Michigan to take a step back. And when you look at their schedule, the fact that you play Texas in the non-conference in addition to all the tough conference games they had, they're going to have a tough road to the playoff. But at the same time, I certainly don't think anybody at Ohio State is going to be overlooking them as a threat in that last weekend of November based on the way the last three years have gone.
[Andy Anders]
No, you simply can't afford to overlook Michigan this year. I mean, there's probably a large feeling from the Ohio State fan base that Ryan Day loses to Michigan with this roster after everything Michigan lost from last year that he should be on the hot seat. And so we've talked about that at length and we'll talk about it a lot more, I'm sure.
As it pertains to just Michigan as a team, you know, I agree with what you said, you know, 16 or 22 starters gone, new head coach, a lot of new, I do think it's going to take an adjustment year. I don't really see them going better than nine and three, but that doesn't mean they won't present a threat to Ohio State specifically because that game is different. Everyone knows it.
If you're a fan of either of those teams, you know that anything can happen in the game. Like anything has happened in the game. There's been big upsets on both sides.
There's been ambitions derailed on both sides. Like you can never take that game for granted. And again, like you said, Michigan has some real pieces to build around with this team.
Now they're going to have to answer a lot of question marks. And you mentioned orgy, not just unproven as a passer, but he was really a raw prospect even coming out of high school, a three-star that they loved the athleticism of. And that's why, you know, they pursued him, but he's going to have to prove himself as an actual big 10 caliber quarterback.
And Jerome Moore, there's a lot for him to prove in year one. I think as a head coach, obviously did some really good things as NRM when Jim Harbaugh was suspended last year, but it's different to have full control of the program. Can he build the right staff?
Can he do what needs done to get a roster there? And I don't think in year one, the expectations are going to be as high again, because you lost so much, but it's just going to be interesting to see where Jerome can maintain the team, I guess. Because, you know, taking the team, you can't really say he's going to take the team any higher after they just won a national title.
A team that for me, I felt higher on them previously than I do now as USC. Obviously you don't fear the defense. They've added some guys, they've done some things, they've got a new coordinator, but just how abysmal they were, nowhere to go but up at least, but how abysmal they were last year and how bad they've been for a couple of years running really under Alex Grinch, who is now gone again.
You just don't fear that USC defense, but on offense, there's a lot of inexperience. You start at quarterback, of course, Miller Moss is going to have to live up to expectations. You're replacing a legend there, Caleb Williams, but the offensive line is a major question mark for USC from everything I've seen.
I was reading the Orange County Register earlier today, and they were saying in simple terms, there's not one single point of returning tested strength at any point on USC's offensive line. The most glaring problem in the program as spring football draws to a close, that was in spring. They didn't add any transfers.
They lost a talented freshman who maybe could have provided some depth. Do have a really good center, but a lot of the offensive line is a question mark, and then a lot of the weapons are question marks too. You've got new faces at running back, new faces at receivers.
Zach Bria Branch is really exciting, but he's got to prove it still. Their receiver core is mostly built around sophomores. So there's a lot of upside and talent on this USC offense, but a lot of inexperience that I think is going to take time to click and may not get there this year.
I think this is going to be a rebuilding year for USC. That's kind of the feeling I have. I don't know where you stand there.
[Dan Hope]
Yeah, I mean, this was a USC team that wasn't that good last year when it had the best quarterback in the country, the guy who was the number one overall pick, and Caleb Williams. So you lose that guy without really adding any pieces that are major difference makers. It's hard to envision them being a real Big Ten contender this year.
I think they're one of those teams that they have enough firepower on offense where they're still going to be dangerous. Any team that plays them, they're going to be dangerous, but I do agree with you. I think they're hoping to kind of do like what Jim Knowles did a couple years ago at Ohio State and kind of re-imagine the defense and build it into something better.
But as we saw with Jim Knowles, that process usually takes a couple years at least. And so I agree with you. I think they're firmly in that second tier of Big Ten teams this year below Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, Penn State, who I think have a pretty clear top four.
I think after that, you start picking like who's number five, there's a few different ways you could go with it. You know, USC certainly in that conversation, Iowa, who's kind of the opposite of USC in many ways in that they're usually really good on defense. They're usually terrible on offense.
Now, they don't have Brian Ferentz anymore. So that's certainly addition by subtraction. And they do have some pieces on offense that makes you think that offense should be better.
They return all five starters on their offensive line. They have a veteran quarterback in Cade McNamara who got hurt last year, but he'll be back this year. They have a really good tight end in Luke Lachey, who Ohio State fans, of course, know as the son of Jim Lachey.
He was hurt last year, but he's going to give him a boost. They've got a solid running back tandem in LaShawn Williams and Caleb Johnson. And so I think that offense could actually be decent this year.
Now, they don't scare me still. I still don't think they're going to be an explosive offense, largely because I think their wide receivers are probably the worst in the Big Ten. Their leading returning receiver is actually Caleb Brown, who came on pretty well at the end of last year after transferring from Ohio State.
But you're talking about a guy who, if he was still at Ohio State, he would not be in the rotation at Ohio State. And he's their number one guy. And he just had some off-field trouble over the weekend.
He'll probably still be on the team if that could potentially change some things in terms of a potential suspension for him and whatnot. And so I think Iowa, I still look at them as like they're a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team. I think that defense is going to keep them in a lot of games.
And I think if the offense can make some strides here, they've got a chance to be a 9-10 win kind of team. They've got a chance to make a little bit of noise. Their schedule outside of Ohio State is not particularly tough.
So I don't rule out the possibility that Iowa could be an outside playoff contender if everything comes together. But do I view them as a real threat to the Ohio States and Oregons of the conference? Not really.
And I think that's probably true of everyone else in the conference. I think Nebraska's a sneaky, dangerous team. They have a lot of returning veterans.
They didn't lose any NFL draft picks from last season. I think if Dylan Raiola, he's a true freshman, so you don't know what to expect. But if he can come in and have success as a true freshman, Nebraska should be better than they've been, which isn't saying much because they've been pretty bad for the last decade.
They don't have the same kind of talent as those top teams in the Big Ten. So I don't view them as a conference championship contender. But are they a team that I think could pull off a big upset at some point during the season, play Ohio State at home?
Maybe that's a tough one. But the rest of their schedule, again, it's not super intimidating. I mean, they don't play Penn State, Michigan, Oregon.
So that, again, kind of gives them a path to where do I think they're going to be one of the two best teams in the conference? No. But could they potentially take advantage of a light schedule and use that to make a run at getting in the conference championship game?
It's certainly possible. That's one of those factors that we're going to have to consider more this year than we have in the past, is that strength of schedule in conference play. I think by contrast, you look at a team like Wisconsin, they have a really tough schedule.
They have home games versus Alabama, Penn State, and Oregon. Then they've got a road schedule that's got plenty of competitive games in there with USC, Rutgers, who Phil Steele, actually, in his Big Ten rankings, he actually has Rutgers eighth out of 18 teams in the Big Ten, which is kind of a striking thing to see, Rutgers as a potential top half of a conference team. But I don't think he's crazy for thinking that when you actually look at Rutgers.
They've got some really good returning players on defense. The offense is not going to scare you. Ethan Kelly, Mattness at quarterback, but they do have a really good running back and Kyle Manon guy.
He had 159 yards versus Ohio State last year. And so I don't think it's crazy. Again, Rutgers is another team, you look at their schedule, they avoid most of the conference's best teams.
And so do I think they're going to be in the Big Ten championship game? I don't. But do I think they could make a little noise just based on the fact that their schedule is not too tough?
I think it's certainly possible. And I think converse, you look at a team like Wisconsin and say, you know, Wisconsin's a middle of the pack team, but yet, you know, they've got a kind of schedule where winning more than half of their games could be a real challenge for them because they have a lot of losable games on that schedule.
[Andy Anders]
Yeah, strike the schedule is a big part of it in this new scheduling model, in this new conference expansion, all of that out of those teams you mentioned, I think I'm probably highest on Iowa, the defense should be awesome. Again, this year, I was it's it's just been funny the last few years where I was kind of a either a middle of the road team, or maybe an upper echelon Big Ten West team, which is whatever, because the Big Ten East was so much stronger, but they but while they had like a national championship caliber defense, like you took that defense and plopped it on to a team with a good offense, like a top 25 offense, it would contend for a national championship. Like they've consistently been at the top of defenses in college football around like that top three for a couple years now. And they return probably the best core of linebackers in the country.
When you talk about Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson, but again, it's like this offense, at least you have somebody with a background in offensive coordinating beyond being the coach's son calling your plays now and Tim Lester, but it takes I always say it takes at 95% of college football programs, it takes a year to install any system, be it an offense or a defense. Heck, that might even be the case, you know, almost 100% of the time. I mean, Jim Knowles is system wasn't fully realized at Ohio State until year two, though they made significant strides in year one.
I think you like much like USC's defense, as you said, there's almost nowhere to go but up for that Iowa offense. So I expect them to take a leap, especially with McNamara quarterback now healthy. But where can you get?
I don't know if that's a place where you could contend with the very top of the conference, but I do think after that first tier of especially Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State and then throw in Michigan, I was to me the next best team. Nebraska under Matt Rule, I do expect to improve from a five and seven record. And yeah, you know, Wisconsin, I'm really curious to see what year two looks like under Luke Thickel.
You know, last year, I said that it would take a year for them to get sort of the feet on the ground, adjust to the new offensive system they wanted to run, which is completely contrary to what Wisconsin had done in the past with a lot of spread elements. Upgrading a quarterback helps that a lot. When you talk about getting Tyler Van Dyke, like you said, really tough schedule.
But if you can at least come out with a winning record, I think it's a win for Wisconsin, given how tough that schedule is. You know, playing Alabama is just a ridiculous non-conference game, especially when you compare it to what Ohio State has this year in the non-conference. So really interested to see what year two looks like under Luke Thickel.
And for me, I think the main storyline that's interesting is Washington. They lost so much from last year's team, as much as it accomplished. And how far do they fall and how competitive can they be in the Big Ten, which is, again, you know, we've talked about all these teams, it's going to be tough to rise up and have a winning record.
But they're still a sleeper team for me, because I think that, you know, a lot of what was established there under the previous regime, and obviously their transitioning head coaches, I really like Jed Fish. And I think a lot of the culture that was established there, he's not inheriting a broken mess like he had to at Arizona and took Arizona to such heights that they hadn't seen in a while. I'm really high on what Jed Fish can get done, but again, it's going to take a year.
So what can Washington achieve? And if they can even be in the top half of the conference, I think that's a great stepping stone for them. So I think Washington is kind of my sleeper team that I'm kind of watching with an eye like, OK, maybe they can make a little noise this year.
But outside of that, I think those are kind of the main teams that we've covered thus far.
[Dan Hope]
It's kind of crazy that we're talking about a team that just played in a national championship game last year as a sleeper team. A team that is, again, in Phil Steele's rankings is projected to finish four spots lower in the Big Ten than Rutgers. And they just played in the national championship game last year.
But that's that's the reality of modern college football. They lost their head coach. They lost the vast majority of their starters from last year's team.
So they have a very different roster and one that on paper does not look like one that should be a Big Ten contender. But, you know, as with you, I don't want to riff them off completely because, again, they were just in the national championship game last year. In terms of the rest of the conference, there's probably not another team we haven't talked about yet that's a true sleeper in terms of contending for a Big Ten championship game spot.
I do think one team that I'm intrigued by just to see how they do this year is Indiana, because I think that Indiana brings back some solid pieces. And they have a coach in Kurt Cignetti who we saw did a fantastic job at James Madison, really overachieved there with what he was able to get out of his talent there. And so that's a team that I'm going to be interested to watch this year.
You look at their schedule, you know, they've got two really tough games there in November against Michigan and Ohio State. But the rest of their schedule, I mean, every other game on their schedule is very winnable. So, you know, that's a team that, do I think they're going to be a conference championship playoff contending kind of team?
No. Do I think they can be a, you know, bowl eligible, middle of the pack Big Ten kind of team? I think they can't.
So that's going to be one of those teams I'm going to be interested to watch in the conference, even if they're not likely to be a real Big Ten championship contender kind of team. All right. I already said it before my prediction for the Big Ten championship game.
I think it's going to be an Ohio State-Oregon rematch. I think Ohio State's going to lose to Oregon in the regular season, but I think they're going to win the rest of their game and they're going to get back in there. You know, they're probably going to need to win that Michigan game in the last week of the season to, you know, clinch that spot in the Big Ten championship game.
And I think Ohio State does it and then gets revenge on Oregon in Indianapolis to win the Big Ten title and earn that top four seed in the college football playoff. Andy, what is your crystal ball telling you? What is your forecast for the Big Ten championship game?
[Andy Anders]
I hate to repeat the entire spiel you just gave, but that's exactly what I was going to say. I have Ohio State-Oregon, Ohio State losing on the road, which is a game I've gone back and forth on a lot. I think, honestly, Ohio State's week schedule to start the year is going to play against them in that matchup.
They do get Iowa before, but it's just not the best ramp to have a bunch of games you can sleepwalk through and then all of a sudden have to play one of the best teams in the country on the road. Like, I just don't think that sets up well. And that's why I have Ohio State losing that one.
Probably a close affair. Ohio State's defense is going to keep them in every game this year, I think. But then I think at a neutral site, they get revenge later on down the road because Oregon probably goes undefeated if they beat Ohio State or maybe loses one game.
I don't know. I think winning out, you will have beaten Penn State. You will have beaten Michigan, which I think we clearly from this podcast both agree are the next two teams after Oregon you have to worry about.
So getting those head-to-heads should allow you to then get into the Big Ten title game where, again, I agree with you, they get revenge on Oregon and make the college football playoff with a bye. So yeah, that's how I see it shaking out. The same as you, Ohio State loses to Oregon.
They rematch in the Big Ten championship game and Ohio State gets revenge there too. And that will have meant too accomplishing two goals that Ohio State hasn't accomplished in a long time under Ryan Day since 2020 was the last time they won a Big Ten title and since 2019 was the last time they beat Michigan. So if our predictions hold up, that will mean they will have done both of those things.
[Dan Hope]
We may have the same answer on this one as well. So I'll let you answer it first this time. How many Big Ten teams will make the college football playoffs and which teams?
[Andy Anders]
Three, I'm going with Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State.
[Dan Hope]
I do have the same answer as you. It's Ohio State. And again, I go with Penn State over Michigan because of the schedules.
When you look at their schedules, you look at Penn State, they have to play Ohio State, but outside of Ohio State, they don't have to play Oregon. They don't have to play Michigan. They have a very easy non-conference schedule.
And so I look at Penn State and say, well, I don't think they're going to beat Ohio State, but they should be favored in the rest of their games. So as long as they don't lose more than two of those other games, they should have a good chance at making the college football playoffs as a third Big Ten team. I think we don't know exactly how this is going to work yet with the selection committee, but you would think the selection committee is probably going to give some deference to the Big Ten and SEC based on the fact that they're clearly now the two strongest conferences.
So I think if you're that third place team in the Big Ten, if you're a 10-2 team in the Big Ten, I think it's very likely you're going to be in the college football playoff. And I think Penn State has a very attainable path to getting to 10-2. And so that's why I have Penn State in there as a third team.
When you look at Michigan, like you said, I think nine and three is probably a more realistic projection for Michigan based on the fact that they have to play Ohio State. They have to play Oregon. They have to play Texas.
Those are three really tough games right there for Michigan in which they're probably not going to be favored in any of them because of a talent they've lost. And then you've also got USC, you've got Washington. There's just enough traps there on that schedule.
The thing that Michigan has working in its favor is if it can win a couple of those games, it'll have that strength of schedule argument. If Michigan can get to 10-2, I think they will be in the playoff because they will have the argument of having played a tougher schedule than most of the other teams in that conversation. I just don't know if they can get there.
I think nine and three is probably a more realistic path. I think we talk about that last game of the season. When I'm looking at my crystal ball, I think I'm envisioning a scenario where Ohio State has to win that game to make the Big Ten championship game and Michigan has to win that game to make the college football playoff.
And if we're in that scenario, then that game is going to feel just as high stakes as it ever has.
[Andy Anders]
Yeah, certainly would add all the elements that this past year brought in terms of stakes, you know, with that game feeling like the college football playoff eliminator that it was, the Big Ten championship game eliminator that it was. If you can set that up again where Michigan needs to beat Ohio State to get into the CFP and Ohio State needs to get a win to get into the Big Ten championship game, I would personally love covering that as a reporter as I enjoyed the stakes of last year's game. And I know there was a lot of concern, I think from us too, that you were going to lose some of that in the rivalry with playoff expansion.
But hey, formula this year where you can actually get to those stakes again, even if it's not at the very, very tippy top of college football. It's both teams playing for major ambitions at the end of a season. I think we have a little bit of time here, Dan, for some recruiting talk because Ohio State has continued cooking, pun intended, on the recruiting trail the past week here.
Added three more commitments with wide receiver Vaughn Penn Miller, offensive lineman Jake Cook, both three stars in the defensive end, Zion Grady, the big name top 70 prospect out of Alabama. Ohio State doesn't get to go into the backyard there very often, but backyard of the Crimson Tide, I should say, very often. But they've done it a couple of times here recently and they land a top 70 defensive lineman from there.
So they've continued to build this month, which has now featured seven commitments between those three. Wide receiver Quincy Porter, Fahim Delane at safety, second best safety in the country, Bo Jackson, an elite running back, and then three-star running back Isaiah West. So we expected a big June for Ohio State.
It's been a big June. The last week has continued that trend.
[Dan Hope]
You know, we talked about a few weeks ago of Garrick and I said, let's not talk about the whole number one class thing yet because we got to believe it when I see it. And I still feel that, but it does feel like it's gradually becoming more and more realistic as Ohio State continues to check a lot of its top targets off the list. And, you know, you mentioned Zion Grady.
You know, that really continues what's been a trend here of landing top defensive talent in this class. You mentioned Fahim Delane as well. Those are two top 70 prospects.
You know, they also have the two top cornerbacks in the class in Devin Sanchez and Naeem Offord. They have a very highly touted linebacker in Tarvis Alford, and they also have another highly touted defensive end in Zaheer Mathis, as well as London Merritt, who's not quite in that top 70 ranking, but he's still a top 150 prospect. And so Ohio State doing a really good job.
We know they've got a very senior heavy defense this year. They're doing a really good job of restocking the cupboard for next year by adding a lot of top talent on defense. And as you wrote about on Tuesday, Ohio State now has six commitments from top 70 prospects in the 2025 class.
Before this class, none of Ryan Day's previous full recruiting cycles had more than four top 70 prospects in them. And so we're seeing the results pay off in terms of the success Ohio State had on the field last year with Jim Knowles. That is now translating to more and more top prospects around the country wanting to come play in that defense.
[Andy Anders]
Yeah, when you're posting top three in past defense, total defense, and points allowed to recruits take notice. And I think recruits also took notice of the struggles that occurred under Kerry Combs. And you want to go to the place that's going to put you in a great defense, that's going to put you on display to get you drafted at the next level.
And Ohio State now has started to prove those things out, especially in the secondary. You look at how Ohio State's defense in 2021 was 97th, 97th in passing yards allowed. In 2023, they were number one.
So I think there's a direct correlation between that and the commitments have offered in Sanchez and Delane. You know, these are three guys that are top two at defensive back positions at their respective positions, all in the same class. So it's a major credit to what Jim Knowles has built.
But also, you know, Tim Walton is just goaded these days. I mean, he's doing Brian Hartline-esque things on the recruiting trail with some of these commitments. And it's exciting to see Ohio State bring in these kind of halls of defensive talent.
And really, the past couple of years, it's felt like the program has been more defense driven. They do have some really good offensive commitments in this class, don't get me wrong. But it's the first time in a long time I can remember an Ohio State class being a little more slanted toward the defense thus far, you know.
And they're still after some major offensive targets. Of course, David Sanders is the biggest one. I mean, he's priority one, two, and three, you know.
And you mentioned the recruiting title. I think that's the commitment that could really put Ohio State, like, solidify their position in that race for the recruiting crown, which is a title that means nothing ultimately until it's proven on the field. But it is still nice to see, I guess, if you're an Ohio State fan, Ohio State win a recruiting title.
And David Sanders is the commitment that not only would probably push you over the top for that in some ways, or at least set you up really well to finish number one. They're number one right now. But also the biggest position of need and the number one player in the country at the biggest position of need, which is offensive tackle.
[Dan Hope]
Yeah. I mean, when you look at the class now, Ohio State now up to 19 commits. They have a very well-balanced class right now in terms of prospects that they have.
I mean, they've got, again, a guy who I think is really starting to put himself in that conversation for maybe being the best quarterback in the class in Tavion St. Clair. You've got two running backs now in Bo Jackson and Isaiah West. You're off to a solid start at receiver with three receivers committed there.
You've got a really good tight end in Nate Roberts and the potential to add another one in Brody Lennon from in-state to round out that class. You've got three really good defensive ends now in Zion Grady, Zaheer Maffis, and London Merritt. You've got a very solid twosome of linebackers in Tarvis Alford and Eli Lee.
You've got, again, two elite cornerbacks in Devin Sanchez and Naeem Offord. And you've got a good trio of safeties in Faheem Delane, Deshaun Stewart, and Cody Haddad. And so, you know, when you look at the big needs that still need to be filled in the class, yeah.
Number one, 1A, it's landing another premier offensive tackle. They do have Carter Lowe, who's a really good player. But Carter Lowe is the kind of recruitment that you're expected to win when you're Ohio State.
You're expected to get the Ohio guy. Justin Frey really needs to prove that he can go out and get a big fish from somewhere else. There's no bigger fish in this class than David Sanders.
And the thing that keeps making him even more and more of a priority is a lot of their backup plans have come off the board. Jackson Lloyd committed to Alabama. Several other offensive linemen that had Ohio State offers have committed elsewhere in the past couple of weeks.
And so it's kind of David Sanders or Bust now. They're still in the mix for another five-star offensive tackle and Josh Petty. But, you know, the feeling is, you know, Florida State probably leads for him.
Ohio State probably behind in that race. And so David Sanders, you talk about a must-get in recruiting. He is the must-get at this point.
I don't think there's any other prospect in this class. They really want to land Dorian Brew. If they land Dorian Brew, you talk about Tim Walton being goaded.
If they can get three five-star cornerbacks in the same class, that would certainly qualify. I mean, they really want to land Justin Hill. Like a guy was, you know, a very dynamic, you know, edge rush kind of player from their own backyard down at Wynton Woods in Cincinnati.
You know, he's a guy you really want to get. You know, Trey McNutt, hard to see where that one's going to go right now. But, you know, he's certainly a guy they want to get a five-star from Ohio, the son of a former Ohio State defensive back.
But David Sanders is the one guy who's really the must-get for Ohio State in this recruiting class right now. Because if you don't get him, I don't really know who else they're going to get to fill that hole they need to fill of adding another top offensive tackle in this class. And based on the fact that they're recruiting at that position has not really been where it's needed to be for several years now, they can't really afford to have another down year in offensive line recruiting.
[Andy Anders]
It almost feels like it's going to be a make-or-break thing for Justin Fry. And, you know, still need to see how the offensive line performs on the field this year. I think that will also be a large component in evaluating his future at Ohio State.
But he needs, like you said, he needs to win some of these recruitments. He's been here multiple years now. There's no excuse in terms of relationship building.
And you're going all out for Sanders. It's clear. If you're going to throw all your eggs in the proverbial basket on this one, then this is what you need to convert on.
Now, some of those other priorities, you know, you mentioned Justin Hill, Dorian Brew, who would be another fantastic defensive back addition. You talked about how Ohio State could have three of the top four corners in the class. Defensive tackle is, I think, maybe the biggest need outside of offensive line, where Ohio State needs to add some bodies.
Malik Autry is someone who just took a visit and I'm really high on. 24-7 has him as a five-star, but he's only like a 180th in the composite. 325-pound defensive tackle.
Lots of smoke on Maxwell Roy committing to Ohio State right now. And then you have Trajan Odom, too, who seems to have been high on Ohio State for a while. So I think those three all-four-star guys are kind of the basis of what you're going to build this defensive tackle class.
And if you can get two of them, I think you're satisfied with what you got there. Now, linebacker, I think Riley Pettijohn is the guy that might be the crown jewel of this class if you can get him. But Nathaniel Owusu-Boateng kind of seems more likely to me and also a really good player.
Either would make a great complement to Tarvis there and Eli Lee, of course. And then Hartline's added three receivers in this class, but he hasn't snagged that big name yet that I guess we're all accustomed to from him. It's hard to do any bigger than Jeremiah Smith.
Quincy Porter is a fantastic prospect, too. Don't want to put anything down on him. But that five-star guy, I think DeCorey and Moore is the main one you look at.
Phillip Bell may be also in that mix. But when you talk about other priorities for the class, now that you have landed three wide outs already, you can kind of really narrow your options and just focus on getting an elite guy if you're going to add a fourth receiver. And Ohio State's talked about it being a three-running back class with Jordan Davison looking like he's going to commit elsewhere, probably.
You're looking at probably Anthony Rocket-Rogers or Sha'Kai Mills-Knight to kind of step into that next echelon of targets there. So those are kind of the other priorities remaining for Ohio State. But with 19 commits already and the number one class in the country, they can afford to be pretty selective other than, you know, again, that all-in push needed for David Sanders.
[Dan Hope]
Yeah, I think, you know, just going back to the receiver, I would definitely still take the field on DeCorey and Moore at this point. I think, you know, he is that kind of guy, like he's the guy who you think about really those home-run swings at wide receiver that we've seen from Brian Hartline. He's the guy who would really kind of satisfy that.
But, you know, Quincy Porter, again, I mean, just to be clear about him, he's the guy who's the 49th overall prospect in the 2025 class. So, you know, he is no consolation prize. He's a really good player.
You know, I think they, you know, like Desi Jones a lot. You know, Phillip Bell's a guy, he's ranked around 150th in the composite. So maybe not that five-star guy, but he's another guy that I think they really like, they think can really be a very good player at Ohio State.
And so I think that, you know, regardless of how it turns out, you know, Brian Hartline, we've said it before at the end of the day, Brian Hartline is going to come out of this thing with a pretty good crop of receivers. Maybe not, you know, quite as much firepower in terms of stars as we saw last year with and Mylon Graham, but a bigger receiver class, because we're really looking at the possibility of maybe five wide receivers in this class. And I think that really became more of a possibility when Ohio State offered Preston Bowman on Sunday, who had just committed to Kentucky on Saturday, the Pickering to North wide receiver.
And then Ohio State swoops in with an offer the next day, which is interesting timing there, but you know, this is a guy, I mean, I've seen him camp, you know, more than a handful of times at Ohio State. He's been at Ohio State a lot. He's, he's one of those guys who I think is really wanted that Ohio State offer for a long time.
And now he's finally has it. So, you know, he has said he's committed to Kentucky right now, but I certainly think that's one that if Ohio State, you know, goes all in on pushing for him that Ohio State, you know, we'll have a chance to flip him. And it is interesting to see how many Ohio guys have gotten offers here late in the cycle over the past month, whether that be Bod Penn Miller and Jake Cook, who are now committed to Ohio State or guys like Brody Lennon and Preston Bowman, who, you know, could now end up at Ohio State after getting late offers here after camping at Ohio State in June, because you don't really see this happen very often with Ohio State where guys who, you know, camp as seniors land offers, you know, in the middle of their senior year in the cycle, but we're seeing that this year that Ohio State is, you know, giving some late opportunities to some guys who, you know, certainly in the case of guys like Jake Cook and Preston Bowman, you know, being from so close to Columbus, these are guys who have camped at, you know, Ohio State when they were freshmen, they were sophomores, they were juniors, and they were always kind of viewed as guys who weren't quite at that Ohio State level, but by continuing to improve, by continuing to work at it, have gotten themselves now to where as seniors, they have put themselves in position to now play at Ohio State.
And, you know, I think it's actually a really cool thing to see because, you know, these are the kind of guys who I think honestly were getting Ohio State offers back when Jim Trussell was coaching at Ohio State. Maybe they haven't gotten Ohio State offers as much in the Urban Meyer, Ryan Day era. And I'm not necessarily saying that's a good or bad thing either way, because you need those national recruits.
You need those five stars, those high caliber four star guys from all over the country if you're going to win a national championship. That's just the way it is in college football now. But I also think when you think about, for one, the fact that Ohio State has lost to its rival for years in a row, and maybe there's a need to really kind of hammer in on the importance of the rivalry and what that means to Ohio State and what it means to be a Buckeye.
I mean, these are the kind of guys, Jake Cook, Preston Bowman, Fod Penn-Miller, you know, these are guys who have dreamed of being Buckeyes their entire lives. And I don't think it hurts to bring in a few more of those kind of guys to your team who just love Ohio State and really understand, you know, they're not just coming to Ohio State because it's the best opportunity for them as a football player. These are the kind of guys who will come to Ohio State because they love Ohio State, have always loved Ohio State, and this is their dream to be a Buckeyes.
And I think those guys just naturally, there's a different level of passion. I mean, we've talked about it with a guy like Jack Sawyer on the current Ohio State football team, a guy who's grown up his entire life dreaming to be a Buckeye. There's just something that's a little different there than a guy who adopts it when he commits to Ohio State.
And so I think, you know, that's a cool thing and something that's certainly not a bad thing for Ohio State to add a few more of those kind of guys. And I also think in the new world of college football, where we talk about the transfer portal and how commonplace that's become, I think realistically, if you're going to bet on some lower-ranked guys, if you're going to bring in some guys who maybe aren't going to be on the fast track to becoming starters at Ohio State, it's probably a good idea for some of those guys to be guys who are from Ohio, who love Ohio State, who are more likely to want to stick around for the long haul, who are more likely to want to stick around to fight, to compete for their opportunity, to play for their dream school.
Whereas guys who are just picking Ohio State because they think it's the best opportunity for them, or because they're getting the most NIL money to come into Ohio State, those guys are going to be more likely to hit the portal if things don't go their way in terms of playing time. I think bringing in guys who are there at Ohio State because they just truly want to be there at Ohio State and want to be Buckeyes, I think there's added value in that in this new world of college football we're in, where transfer movement has become more commonplace and it becomes more and more important to have guys on your roster that truly want to be there.
[Andy Anders]
Yeah, if you're going to take a three-star project guy, take a three-star project guy from Ohio. I mean, some of the legends of the Jim Trestle era were three-star Ohio project. A.J. Hawk being one of the biggest examples of a guy who was pretty unheralded as a recruit and ended up becoming a superstar. It does give you that little extra shove when you've come from Ohio, you wanted to be a Buckeye all your life, and you get that opportunity. Now, there's that extra pride in wanting to play for your home state, your hometown team. So I like the idea of taking some of these three-stars from in-state high schools, especially if you're also converting on some elite talents at those positions, particularly receiver.
Ohio State's never short on great receiver talent with Brian Hartline, so you can afford to have some guys from Ohio who are more project-based there with Bob Pennmiller or Preston Bowman if he ultimately commits to Ohio State. Offensive line is a very developmental position anyway, so you might as well take some guys. And even recently, Jermaine Matthews ended up being an elite prospect when Ohio State offered him in that cycle, was still like a three-star kind of guy from Ohio who was at one point maybe considered a project, didn't end up proving that out.
Obviously, we saw what he did as a freshman in his key moments. So there have been guys that have hurt Ohio State on the other side of the rivalry from Ohio. That's always been the case.
Michigan, other than Michigan, consistently its top talent pool throughout the years has come from Ohio. Ohio's fueled a lot of Big Ten schools through the years because as far as Midwestern States go, it might be the top talent producer year over year just because of how crazed about football people are in this state. So maybe taking some of those guys that would otherwise be in Michigan's class, some of those three-star talents that have upside, not to say all these guys are going to commit to Michigan, but those are certain the kind of players that Michigan has in part built their program around the last few years, getting some Ohio talents that had upside to then integrate and be some building blocks to their program. And of course, Michigan got talent from a lot of other places too, but Ohio has always helped fuel that. And I think that's another part of taking shots at these lower-rated Ohio guys.
And then just from a story perspective, you love to see a kid reach his dreams. And so it's great stories for Bob Penn Miller, for Jake Cook to have come up the recruiting rankings and earned that offer in their senior years and get to a place where they can now play for their dream school. I mean, that's just cool too.
So from the emotional side of this, but also from a logistical side, a handful of these kinds of commitments are nice to see.
[Dan Hope]
Yeah. I mentioned Rod Moore earlier, the hero of last year's rivalry game when he had the game-sealing interception on Kyle McCord. He's a guy who is very much like that.
A guy who from Ohio, kind of an unheralded recruit, Ohio State decided not to take him. He goes to Michigan and he becomes a star. And so that's a good point there as well, that sometimes you don't take a chance of that guy in your backyard and it burns you.
Granted, you cannot take everybody. So that's going to happen, but it is true. It always stings more when you have a guy who is in your back, especially if it's a guy who really wants to be a Buckeye that you could have had, and then he goes to one of your rival schools and then he makes plays against you.
That always stings. So I think it's very true. And the point of, if you're talking about taking a project, taking a chance on a guy who's lower rated, it makes sense to do that with a guy who's been in your backyard and has always wanted to be a Buckeye, rather than doing it with somebody from somewhere else.
Ohio State is never going to get back to the place it once was where it was, you know, majorly built on Ohio guys. Like they're always going to be a national recruiting program now. I think you have to be, but I think to build that core back up a little bit more in terms of, you know, having some of those Ohio guys, you know, I think that's a good thing.
And I think Ohio State's been fortunate. You know, you look at this class in particular, the talent in Ohio has been on the upswing. There is more talent in this class in Ohio than there has been in past years.
I think seven on seven, finally being allowed Ohio High School Athletic Association coming to its senses and allowing Ohio players to participate in seven on seven, that's going to help in terms of building more talent in the state. And so, you know, certainly, you know, it's going to be something that's going to continue to be an important part of Ohio State's strategy going forward of finding, trying to find that right blend of getting the best prospects from all over the nation, as well as getting some good players in their own backyard. And I think they're doing a good job right now, as evidenced by the fact that they're ranked as the number one class in the country.
I think they're doing a pretty good job of striking that balance right now. We had Gene Smith on the show last week. We're going to have another special guest episode next week as Ohio State President Ted Carter is going to be joining us on the show.
So we hope that you will join us again for next week's show to hear our conversation with Ohio State's new president. Thank you for tuning in and we'll catch you next time.