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TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays from 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with full episodes posted to Spotify immediately after airing.
Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” TBPN has interviewed Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. Diet TBPN delivers the best moments from each episode in under 30 minutes.
You're watching TBPN. Today's Friday, 06/12/2026. We are live from the TBPN all through down the temple of technology, the fortress finance, the capital of capital. Let's tell you about ramp.com. Time is money.
Speaker 1:Save both. Easy use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place. It's a massive day today. SpaceX IPO priced at a $135 a share. Opened at $1.50.
Speaker 1:Where is it right now? Jordy, are you on it? Do you have the price? Oh, the price is up there. Okay.
Speaker 1:Now we're getting the endless mirror. Can But pause the
Speaker 2:Here we go.
Speaker 1:We'll be tracking throughout the show. So stay tuned. It's $2,280,000,000,000 company
Speaker 3:72.
Speaker 1:$172 a share. I had Tyler and Jordy submit confidential estimates for how where the stock would be at noon effectively. Jordy went with a market cap based estimate. Tyler went with a share price estimate, I think.
Speaker 3:Is that what I was told?
Speaker 1:I went with a percentage based estimate. You can translate between all of them. We'll get there. But the stock's doing well. The IPO is successful, I would say.
Speaker 1:There's been a bunch of chatter back and forth, bull cases, bear cases. But overall, it's hard not to look at this as a success. The you know, Bill Gurley doesn't want a crazy pop on day one, doesn't want it to go up a 100%. If we're in ten, twenty, 30% range for something this big, that just feels like everything came together properly. And so so far, looks really really good.
Speaker 2:Healthy.
Speaker 1:So at noon, we will check-in with our predictions and see who won. There is an exciting prize for the winner, by the way. It will be revealed at noon as well. There's been a ton of coverage. We can we can pull up this video from Gwen Shotwell, who is the president of SpaceX and has been on an absolute terror building the company for basically its entire existence.
Speaker 1:What what are you laughing at?
Speaker 2:I didn't know what your prediction was.
Speaker 1:Did you see what it is?
Speaker 2:Yeah. Nick just shared it.
Speaker 1:Oh, he did.
Speaker 2:This guy over here. This is a funny guy over here. Be revealed. Funny guy over here. See.
Speaker 2:This is why you trade
Speaker 1:I was trying to
Speaker 3:pull This
Speaker 2:is why you trade bits, not stocks.
Speaker 1:I was trying to pull an estimate out of you and you were like asking me 25 clarifying questions. The purpose is content to have a conversation. Just pick a number and you're like, oh, well, does it count where it opens or what where it opens after like
Speaker 2:I just saw
Speaker 1:we gotta have a discussion about this. There's nothing share.
Speaker 2:Sure. Everything's on the line, John. Everything is on I
Speaker 1:was laughing about how you wouldn't take a side on the on the dog walker versus the dentist. I I was like dog walker dentist, blind. Who you going? And you were like, I I can't possibly. I couldn't possibly in the name of good television just pick a random side for
Speaker 2:the or dentist? Yeah. Beach debate. The beach debate. We never we never got your answer.
Speaker 1:And you're like, I need more information. I can't possibly make a call.
Speaker 2:This is it's such a tough one because I don't
Speaker 1:I'm that tough. Why is it tough?
Speaker 2:Here's why it's tough for me, John.
Speaker 1:Okay. It's fine.
Speaker 2:I have never in my life Mhmm. Hired or worked with a dog walker. Yeah. My family growing up Yeah. We had a couple dogs.
Speaker 2:Yeah. We walked our dog. Yeah. Like we never
Speaker 1:You've been to the dentist.
Speaker 2:I was the dog walker.
Speaker 1:Yeah. You've been to You're not your own dentist though. So why are you just going
Speaker 2:dentist? Dentists. I've never had a cavity. I guess I'm blessed.
Speaker 3:Okay.
Speaker 2:Every time I go in there, they're like, looks good, boss.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:And and I just head out.
Speaker 1:So equally useless.
Speaker 2:Equally useless profession.
Speaker 1:So flip the coin, it's TV. Useless profession.
Speaker 2:No. I just don't have any connection. I need I need
Speaker 1:why don't you fall back to like the economic power of the dentist industry versus the dog walking industry? Like if you had to pick dog
Speaker 2:dog walking.
Speaker 1:If you were trying to get a bag
Speaker 2:I respect dog dog walker.
Speaker 1:Oh, you would
Speaker 4:be an
Speaker 1:elite dog walker over a mid dentist?
Speaker 2:Here's here's two here's like here's kind of my thinking.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:There's a guy in my neighborhood
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Who is walking dogs in my neighborhood all day long. Yeah. I'm like, who Like, a lot of people in my neighborhood don't work. Yeah. They're just home all day.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Like, aren't you walking your dog? Okay. But, I think it's amazing that this guy is just like
Speaker 1:He's printing.
Speaker 2:Clearly printing Yeah. All day long just going for walks. Yeah. Hanging out. He's listening to music, hanging out.
Speaker 5:Seems great.
Speaker 2:Nice He picks up the the
Speaker 1:Sounds like you're going dog walking.
Speaker 2:Except the poop when he when on my lawn. Yeah.
Speaker 5:It's great.
Speaker 2:I appreciate it. We have a, you know a
Speaker 1:Good relationship.
Speaker 2:I maybe wish you wouldn't do that but
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:We have a fine relationship. But then dentists, I could get really excited about a dentist if they were
Speaker 1:You're still torn. You're still
Speaker 2:equity backed roll up.
Speaker 1:Okay. Okay. Well, that's an option.
Speaker 2:Was kind of a figurehead for for some PE firm Yeah. To be able to deploy huge amounts of capital Yeah. Into rolling up Yes. Family practices Yes. And raising prices.
Speaker 1:What what if you're a dog walker, you you earn so much money, you start being able to buy small dentist shops rolling them up. You flip from dog walking into dentistry.
Speaker 2:Well, would be the way I don't We don't know much about this story. Yeah. But we do know there's a conflict. Yeah. But that would be the way for the dog walker to strike back is by the dentist.
Speaker 1:So final final answer.
Speaker 2:Come
Speaker 1:in. What what side are you picking?
Speaker 2:If the dog walker will commit to
Speaker 1:No no conditionals.
Speaker 2:You just can't dentist. Why can't I have condition?
Speaker 1:You can't have conditions because that's the rules that I'm laying down. You gotta pick one. Dog walker or dentist. Whose side are you on?
Speaker 2:Dog walker.
Speaker 1:There we go. Finally, we got
Speaker 2:I'm gonna put heavy
Speaker 5:The whole
Speaker 2:point is that serious amount of pressure.
Speaker 1:Stakes. I'll just take dentists and I'm defend that and steel man that.
Speaker 2:Put a serious amount of pressure on the dog walker Okay. And I will provide financial backing to acquire the dentist practice and shut it down. Okay. Because because I know they have I know they have some conflict.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. And it sounds like it's over the beach. It's really not that personal Yeah. Yeah. And access to the beach.
Speaker 2:No. But I think there's an opportunity to make it personal. Okay. And I think I think at this point, if they're getting written up in the journal about this conflict Yeah. I think they should make it per so they gotta figure out how to make it personal.
Speaker 3:Yeah. And
Speaker 2:I think buying the dentist practice and then shutting it down or
Speaker 1:That's a tough
Speaker 3:That's a high high No. No.
Speaker 2:You can raise an SPV. Oh. Together. And I I would be willing to you know, I need to meet the guy first, but I'm at least moderately interested in providing at least some of the backing Okay.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:For the
Speaker 1:I gotcha. Well, let me tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI. Their business is securing it. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches.
Speaker 1:Let's play this clip from Gwen Shotwell standing at the NASDAQ on the day of the space on the big board? I think we might be able to play it on the big board. Stock is doing well, holding steady at 2.3
Speaker 2:trillions. Split screen. Team
Speaker 1:wants to do, we will we will do as long as the folks at home can see Gwen Shotwell giving her speech to
Speaker 2:gotta say Tyler is looking like a young muscle.
Speaker 5:Yeah. To be here.
Speaker 1:Channeling?
Speaker 4:Today, we make history again. We have a history of making history. So I want everyone to know that we did open this morning in a rather exciting way. We launched. Falcon nine launched Starlink satellites to orbit.
Speaker 2:We have a history of nation history.
Speaker 4:So what company would do such a thing on the day that they open in the public market? SpaceX would. Right? I am so proud of this team. Today, we're 24 we're not today.
Speaker 4:This year, we are 24 years old. Elon founded this company in 2002 initially to build rockets and spaceships that will take humans to Mars, the moon, and even beyond. We've done we've not quite gotten to Mars. We're almost at the moon. But let's just quickly run through the amazing things that you guys have accomplished.
Speaker 4:Two thousand and eight, six weeks after a failure of flight three Falcon one, we got the first liquid fueled rocket to orbit from a private company. Yay. Yay. By the way, I should have prefaced this with everyone said we could never get to orbit. Check.
Speaker 4:But it was a little rocket. Then it's everyone said, well, you can't get a real rocket to orbit. Two years later, we got a real rocket to orbit, Falcon nine. Oh, well, you'll never you'll never get to the space station because that's what we really wanna do. Right?
Speaker 4:We wanna take humans outside the bounds of Earth, but you'll never get astronauts to the space station. Check. We did that too. Doubters. Right?
Speaker 4:Oh, you'll never fly Falcon nine enough. You'll never get to production. Another 65 launches last year. Check.
Speaker 6:Yeah.
Speaker 4:You'll never build a rocket large enough to take humans to the moon and Mars. We build one. We've flown it. And this year, I believe we'll get to orbit with that vehicle, and we'll recover the first the second stage. We've already recovered the first stage and reflown it.
Speaker 4:So good good on you all for that too. With the merger, the acquisition of x AI, we now, as a group, own the largest coherent gigawatt class compute on the planet, which will help us truth seek and understand the universe. So congratulations to all of us for that.
Speaker 5:So
Speaker 4:we're about 22,000 strong. I'm super proud that over half of us actually bought additional stock in this opening, totaling almost a billion dollars. So thank you for that too. But, really, the thank yous go to all of you for hanging in there, for keeping a straight spine as the doubters doubt, to achieve historic things sometimes every day, multiple times a week. Thank you all of you for doing this.
Speaker 4:And I hope today is a day that you feel great about and that you're celebrating. Take a moment. Now the Falcon recovery team can't take a moment today, but everybody else can. And I hope Falcon recovery team could take a moment a little bit later. Yep.
Speaker 4:And, also, thank you to the families, the the partners, the plus ones, the children, the brothers, the sisters, the parents that have lived through long nights, that have seen launch failures, that have seen, AI compute go down, that have seen kind of the trials and tribulations of this incredibly difficult business. Thank you so much for hanging in there. I know I can't do this without my incredible hardware.
Speaker 2:We're standing o. In all seriousness And congratulations to the SpaceX team. It is like truly one of the most remarkable stories in the history of capitalism, in the history of America. Started in a little town called El Segundo. And Glenn Shotwell, one of the You said Glenn.
Speaker 2:Sorry. Glenn. One of the most impressive executives
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Of the modern era. Crazy. And we all should have known just due to the nominative determinism. Yeah. If you're gonna run a if you're gonna build a rocket company, hire somebody to run the company with the last name Shotwell because she has shot Yeah.
Speaker 2:Quite well.
Speaker 1:Yeah. She worked at Chrysler and then began working
Speaker 2:people like to say like, oh, nontraditional background. Somewhat. Chrysler? Yeah. I mean Not exactly like a Target.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Well, she worked at the Aerospace Corporation, did technical work on military space research and development contracts. Early projects she worked on was STS 39. During a ten year tenure, she worked on thermal analysis, worked both in space systems engineering and project management positions. She left the Aerospace Corporation in 1998 to become director of the Space Systems Division at Microcosm Inc, a small rocket company in El Segundo.
Speaker 1:There, she was on the executive committee and responsible for business development. In 2002, she joined SpaceX, and she reflected on that later. She said, when I was considering joining SpaceX back in 2002, was struggling with the decision and drawing it out for weeks. It's crazy. Leaving Elon on red for weeks seems extremely risky.
Speaker 1:It feels like every decision he makes now is like, go, no, go today. Get back to me right now. Back then, obviously, SpaceX was very young. Less leverage, less less energy, less momentum. So, these decisions would be drawn out.
Speaker 1:She said it seemed so risky for me personally to join this little startup in an industry where none had ever succeeded. I think she was starting a family around that time, and so it was risky from a career perspective. She said, at the time, I was a part time single mother. Yeah. And this was just too far out of my comfort zone.
Speaker 1:She was used to bigger corporations, more established companies. She's going to this small startup that has, you know, it's at that time, it's like a guy who made money on the Internet now wants to do rocketry. What's the chance that that works? It sounds crazy. And it was at the time.
Speaker 1:She says, was driving on the freeway here in LA when it finally hit me. I was being a total idiot. Who cares if I tried this job and either I failed or the company failed? What I recognized at that moment was that it was the trying part that was the most important. Try that risky thing.
Speaker 1:Be a part of something exciting. What a what a fantastic run. And she I I I'm not sure if she coined the term residual capability, but that's a big phrase that she started using around the time Starlink started working. Just this idea that they would go and build ahead of demand almost. So they SpaceX built basically more launch capacity than there was demand for.
Speaker 1:But then because there was space on every SpaceX rocket and they were able to build them so so efficiently, so affordably, they were able to put up a massive constellation of Internet connected satellites, Starlinks, and develop another huge business on top of it. And so this idea of of building building building and then finding the different opportunities. For a while, SpaceX point to point was the big the big residual capability unlock that was coming in a few years. The idea that you get on a spaceship, a starship in New York and you'd be in Tokyo in thirty minutes because you would have gone all the way to space and back and it would land. I think that's still part of the plan, but obviously took a back seat in the S1, took a back seat in the marketing materials for the company.
Speaker 1:But something that is still possible if you wind up delivering incredible safety and performance and cost reductions to the rocket launches, why not hop on a rocket to get across the world in thirty minutes? Sounds pretty cool and probably oddly easier to approve than hypersonic planes since those have been stuck in regulatory approvals for for, you know, years and decades and never really worked out. The Wall Street Journal is also reflecting on Gwen Shotwell. She's they say 19 things to know about SpaceX president. She's a diplomat.
Speaker 1:She's seen as a steady hand engendering trust in the company from those who have been unsettled by Musk's actions. You're worried about his politics. You're worried about his other companies. Well, Shotwell has you covered with a very steady hand on the tiller at a very large company with 22,000 employees, as she mentioned. She's a billionaire after the Shotwell after the IPO.
Speaker 1:Shotwell's net worth will be well north of 1,000,000,000. She owns about 12,600,000 shares. She translates Musk's lofty ideas.
Speaker 2:That part is a little bit crazy.
Speaker 1:Which one?
Speaker 2:To me.
Speaker 1:Which one?
Speaker 2:So at the current price
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:She is closer to being worth like 2,000,000,000.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:But still
Speaker 1:To be that early and and that critical and not wind up with a 5% stake or 1%
Speaker 2:stake? Not even not yeah. Like something more like a 1% stake.
Speaker 1:Yeah. A lot of dilution. You know, big big companies. A lot
Speaker 2:of dilution but
Speaker 1:A lot of secondary. She might have been selling
Speaker 5:it Selling
Speaker 2:was Zai.
Speaker 1:Maybe it was like yeah. We actually started out with it
Speaker 2:with I'm really bullish.
Speaker 1:We gave her 40%. I'm really
Speaker 2:I've never been more bullish. But you did sell 95%.
Speaker 1:In the latest tender.
Speaker 3:Yeah. That is good because, I mean, Elon's hitting one t and she's just hitting one b.
Speaker 2:Well, yeah.
Speaker 1:Shotwell was paid 86,000,000 last year, mostly in the form of stock options. She's one of eight board members at SpaceX. She's 62 and has worked with Musk for two decades. She has a specific ritual for launch days. Because she was in Scotland the first time the company successfully got a rocket into orbit, she now writes Scotland on two sticky notes and places each inside her shoes to be in Scotland for every launch.
Speaker 1:She said in a 2020
Speaker 2:Scotland mindset. That's pretty elite.
Speaker 1:I like is what what what's that called? Where you're superstitious. Superstitions. Rare? Potentially underrated?
Speaker 1:What do you think? Do you have any superstitions?
Speaker 2:I mean, it's in the word super.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Superpowers. Superstition. Superstition. That's another one.
Speaker 3:Anyway. Gigastream.
Speaker 1:Whether you're long, whether you're short SpaceX, Express yourself on public.com, investing for those taken seriously. Stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries and more with great customer service. What's your take on superstition? Do you have any? Doesn't sound like it.
Speaker 2:I think it's I think it's quite distracting.
Speaker 1:Distracting to have a superstition?
Speaker 2:Yeah. Kind of like could it could end up being a pretty big waste of time, so I avoid them.
Speaker 1:So you feel like unless you go through your whole ritual of eliminating all distractions, things aren't gonna go well. So you're superstitious about letting distractions creep into your workflow. I understand Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. You're on stage. So maybe So maybe I am.
Speaker 1:Yeah. If I have a single distraction everything will fail. She's been a staunch defender of mocks. Musk, she worked to prevent business fallout during all the political turmoil. She worked with NASA officials and assured them that tensions would pass.
Speaker 1:She doesn't love social media social media. I like his in person self better than his Twitter self. In fact, they feel like two different people many of the times. She has a much different social media presence than her boss posting sparingly, exclusively about SpaceX. She's focused.
Speaker 1:She was raised outside of Chicago. As a teenager, she decided she would become an engineer.
Speaker 2:Wait. You could imagine like she's reading x. She's like crying emojis, quoting six more posts, crying emojis. He's never crying
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. At the office. He never does that.
Speaker 5:This is
Speaker 2:like actually. Feels like I feel like I don't know this guy. He's always crying.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Well, when she first joined SpaceX, she was VP of business development. So not in the in like a co founder, chief executive type role on day one. And so that probably explains a little bit of the equity position and how that developed over time. But she was promoted to SpaceX's president and chief operating officer in 2008, the same year the company won a critical $1,600,000,000 NASA cargo transport deal.
Speaker 3:So I looked up she was SpaceX's seventh employee.
Speaker 1:Wow. That's pretty early. She'd be disappointed if SpaceX didn't have a settlement on the moon and wasn't building a manufacturing facility on the moon within ten years. She showed time. She lives on a 1,000 acre ranch close to a SpaceX facility in Texas.
Speaker 1:She married a fellow SpaceX engineer and has two children. She put a Starlink mini terminal on top of her car to speak with Musk on her 40 commute without the call dropping. Interesting. Jimmy Soni also went back in time and told a story in The Wall Street Journal about the one of the early days in in the SpaceX journey. Vindication for young Elon Musk, he wrote.
Speaker 1:In 2004, he told the Senate that open competition would transform the industry. First, before we get into this, let me tell you about Railway. Railway is the all in one intelligent cloud provider. Use your favorite agents to deploy web apps, servers, databases, and more while Railway automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring, and security. So this was an interesting story.
Speaker 1:And I and I wonder if we could find the actual video like on C SPAN. I don't know if it's out there. But in 2004, the Senate held a subcommittee meeting gathering on the all the subcommittee gathers on Capitol Hill to ask a question that now sounds quaint. Could America still reach space without the space shuttle? Of course, we do it like every couple days, thanks to SpaceX.
Speaker 1:The shuttle was grounded, fourteen astronauts had died in two disasters, and the hearing room was thick with anxiety of a nation that feared it had lost a step. Senator Bill Nelson, had flown on the shuttle, sort of the Jared Isaacman of his era, warned that without it, the country might spend years relying on Russian rockets. Nobody disagreed. Witnesses came in two panels. First, you got the NASA team defending the program through William Reddy, its associate administration for administrator for spaceflight accompanied by a retired admiral.
Speaker 1:After NASA spoke spoke, industry did. They got a vice president from ATK, another from Lockheed Martin, a director from the aerospace group. Are you looking for a new a candle, a nuke one way
Speaker 2:or another? Is brutal for my prediction.
Speaker 1:This is brutal
Speaker 3:for I'm feeling I'm feeling pretty good. Settling in.
Speaker 1:But it's also brutal for anyone that wants drama on the chart because you're not getting it today. It's very stable. I think this is a very well managed project from start to finish.
Speaker 2:And then now it's just like a trillion dollar company, so it's hard for it to move super
Speaker 1:I don't know. I I I I just I'm think just saying you were expecting 10% swings up and
Speaker 3:down I was thinking that your account is pretty small, though. Like, at least that they're being traded.
Speaker 2:Sure. Sure.
Speaker 1:Very, very small. So the last person on the industry panel. You got Lockheed, ATK, Aerospace Corp. It's Elon Musk.
Speaker 2:AP in the chat. Wait for dip.
Speaker 5:Wait for dollars. $5. Can you imagine?
Speaker 1:It just nukes down to $5. So on the second panel, the industry panel, you got heavy hitters from Lockheed, other industry folks. You got a thirty two two year old man who had founded a rocket company two years earlier and he'd yet to launch anything. It was Elon Musk. He had a more immediate complaint.
Speaker 1:NASA had just awarded a rival a quarter of $1,000,000,000 contract without open competition and his company had protested. So everyone's there to debate like, okay, can NASA get to space without the shuttle and he's there being like, what about my contract? He shows up to this thing to testify and they keep having to try and keep him on track. It's a very interesting
Speaker 3:Wow.
Speaker 1:Way to, like, get his word in edgewise. So the senators thought the matter was off limits. Like, this hearing isn't about that, Elon. It's not about your contract. It was under government review already and they kept having to steer him back to the day's subject, specifically heavy lift, the blunt problem of getting big things off the planet.
Speaker 1:Certainly, he said, although it's worth correcting. I think mister Reddy misspoke when he said it was competitive. It was, in fact, not competitive. The chairman tried again. Let's stay to heavy lift capacity issues, Elon.
Speaker 1:Stay on message. And Elon says, absolutely. But his correction was safely on the record. He said something the panel wasn't ready to hear. The past few decades, Elon Musk told them, had been a dark age for human spaceflight.
Speaker 1:One costly government program after another failed to reach the pad. The public's drift from space, he argued, wasn't the apathy of a tired people, but the disappointment of a hopeful one. It sounded in 2004 like a man with a grievance and a half built rocket. He was dismissed. He had made the same case the summer before in one of his first Capitol Hill appearances.
Speaker 1:At a 2003 hearing on commercial spaceflight, there's a borrowed concept from the economist Joseph Schumpter, a creative destruction. The industry had lost it, not one successful new entrant in four decades. Space, Mr. Musk pointed out, had barely improved since Apollo while every other technology from computing and the Internet to intercontinental flight had been transformed by newcomers in open competition. Restore that forcing function, he said, and space would change no less dramatically.
Speaker 1:The government need only be a customer, not a competitor. He could be glib. Every launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base, he said, was required by law to be studied for its effect on the local seals at $10,000 a flight even as that population had been climbing by nearly 13% in a single year. He says the seals are doing fine. Let me launch.
Speaker 1:With the population with that population growth rate Mr. Musk observed, it seems clear that if anything, the Vandenberg launch activity serves as an aphrodisiac. Dropping lines, dropping zingers on Capitol Hill. People laughed. It was the laughter you gave a clever outsider.
Speaker 1:But we can grade that clever outsider's argument now because more than twenty years have passed and the record is in. The fear that haunted that 2004 hearing dependence on Moscow was not ended by the shuttle but by Mr. Musk's company. In 2002, a SpaceX capsule carried two astronauts to the space station from American soil
Speaker 3:2020.
Speaker 1:2020. Closing a nine year gap in which The United States paid Russia as much as $90,000,000 a seat to hitch a ride. The semi reusable rocket, Musk described to skeptical senators became a fleet of boosters that land themselves and fly again. Today, SpaceX launches more than half the world's payloads. On Friday, it goes public in what is expected to be the largest IPO in history.
Speaker 1:What are you laughing at, Jordy Hayes?
Speaker 2:I'm laughing at the comments on this On this article. Post we made earlier.
Speaker 1:Oh, what did we say?
Speaker 2:Breaking the pride of France, Mistral AI. It's exploring a raise of 3,000,000,000 at a €20,000,000,000 valuation.
Speaker 1:Trouble. You have such a bone to pick with France. You're always taking shots at France. What did France do to you?
Speaker 2:I love France.
Speaker 1:This is beautiful.
Speaker 2:I genuinely I it's one of my favorite countries in the entire world. I love it.
Speaker 1:But people are having fun poking fun at France?
Speaker 2:But I just think You're
Speaker 1:you're oh, you're
Speaker 2:I'm kind of laughing at my own
Speaker 1:Your own joke. Bit. A little bit. Because the card just says France. Right?
Speaker 2:It says French. French. French. Let's let's let's put it up.
Speaker 1:Mhmm. We will. The Financial Times has every possible take on on SpaceX today. Scroll down.
Speaker 5:Scratch.
Speaker 1:How's it doing? Good times. Stuart Kirk says SpaceX is cheap on a price to cosmos ratio. Terrestrial evaluations don't apply when it comes to Elon. Last June, he wrote a column with the headline, an entry level guide to valuing stocks.
Speaker 1:He also provided a link to a simple valuation tool that even my children's new hamster could use. What? How can a hamster use this? Interesting. I guess he's joking around.
Speaker 1:That's a weird that's a weird line to throw in. But discounted cash flow models require that cash moves in and out of a business to be net positive in order to calculate what a company is worth. Unless you want a negative number for some reason like in divorce court. Hence, few years after I became a portfolio manager in the mid nineties, equity analysts trying to flog .com stocks began using price to sales ratios. When those look too silly, they invented price to clicks or price to eyeballs.
Speaker 1:And you know how that ended. No wonder investors still prefer cash flow based valuation methodologies over anything else. That said, there are legitimate reasons to employ other metrics, including price to sales ratios. The latter are handy as a sense check when profits are temporarily depressed, distorted or cyclical, provided that the revenues are real and measurable. If a price to earnings ratio appears odd, comparing price to sales ratios within an industry can be reassuring.
Speaker 1:Moreover, plenty of firms operate at a loss and thus using earnings multiples doesn't work, period. This can go on for years due to a heavy investment in business. Amazon was founded in 1994 and didn't make a profit until 2003. And a lot of people are taking a victory lap today over Aswath Damodran, the NYU finance professor who I have a ton of respect for, but he was very skeptical about the Tesla IPO when that went out. And everyone reasonable in the finance world was saying, well, the valuation is disconnected from the fundamentals compared to any other car company, compared to any other company.
Speaker 1:Doesn't make sense. But of course, the the revenues did grow. The earnings did materialize. They did wind up making money. Although, the the stock is still very highly valued because Elon's
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Pitch is a very
Speaker 3:large vision.
Speaker 2:Elon companies can stay disconnected from the Yep. Fundamentals longer than you can stay solvent.
Speaker 1:And that's what Stuart Kirk is arguing in the Financial Times. He says, terrestrial valuations don't apply when it comes to Elon. And that is something that I think a lot of people have internalized.
Speaker 3:So plan.
Speaker 1:Yes. So trust the plan. Enter SpaceX on 95 times. 95 times revenue, I believe. Dude.
Speaker 1:No. I haven't forgotten the decimal point here. Your
Speaker 2:Prediction is
Speaker 1:good. For
Speaker 2:you. It was looking so good an hour ago.
Speaker 1:Too bad. But let me tell you about MongoDB. What's the only thing faster than the AI market? Your business on MongoDB. Don't just build AI.
Speaker 1:Own the data platform that powers it. I seriously couldn't believe it when I first divided the target valuation of $1,800,000,000,000 by the last twelve months of revenues. I laughed so hard the wine I was drinking shot from my nose. This is the most this is the most financial times article I've ever read. He but he he's not saying he's not saying I almost I almost spit up.
Speaker 1:But but no, that's different. So a spit take is one thing. You spit out your coffee. What is that? He says he was drinking wine and it came out of his nose.
Speaker 1:That's brutal. Like, that's very rare.
Speaker 3:You gotta be
Speaker 2:That sounds like
Speaker 1:drunk for that to happen. That
Speaker 2:sounds like
Speaker 1:You have to be really drunk to have the alcohol come out of your nose and not just spit it up or throw up. I feel like the tear of like bad things that can happen to you when you're drinking too
Speaker 3:so hard I threw up.
Speaker 1:Well, no. I don't know. I'm maybe drinking a lot. I laughed so hard the wine I was drinking shot from my nose. Then I laughed some more.
Speaker 1:Yeah. This guy is really taking
Speaker 2:that he just made this up entirely because Has anyone had liquid? Has anyone been drinking something, started laughing and had? But out of the mouth is one thing.
Speaker 1:Spit take is different than out of your nose. Your nose is a new new level. New level. Anyway, come back to us.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Mechanically, I I I don't buy it. Yeah. I think he tried to I think he tried to really like illustrate this
Speaker 1:I think so. Well, he continues. He says, then I laughed some more when I thought of all those analysts who had who had to justify that their multiple that their that the that multiple in their buy recommendations to clients. It was easy for Goldman Sachs, however. It simply forecasted revenues to rise 25 fold by 2030.
Speaker 1:It makes me wonder why they didn't push for 50 fold or why not sales up to a 100 times in four years. SpaceX could have raised double or quadrupled the money. After all, the IPO offering was at least three times oversubscribed. And on Friday, trading opened with the stock up 11%. How might a sensible person, which excludes conflicted global bankers and meme investors who jump on anything from marijuana to the metaverse to Bitcoin and AI value SpaceX then?
Speaker 1:Frankly, I haven't a clue. This guy's writing like the most non article. By which I mean I have no idea how anyone can arrive at the current valuation and it's not that the outlook for SpaceX's core launch and satellite communications business as well as artificial intelligence is largely theoretical at this point. It's that even insanely bullish assumptions get me nowhere near the share price. Perhaps I'm not dreaming big enough.
Speaker 1:Space is larger than earthling investors such as me are used to analyzing. Then again, I've just read the Morningstar research report from a couple weeks ago that arrived at a valuation of $780,000,000,000 less than half of SpaceX's market cap, and it was wildly optimistic. Morningstar wrote of prodigious cost advantages in launch reaching 18,000,000,000 in sales within a decade at 20% margins for even the more sensible Starlink business. Tens, not necessarily hundreds of billions of dollars in annual growth over the coming decade are penciled in at operating margins potentially exceeding 75%. What a fantastic telecom business Starlink is truly.
Speaker 1:But of course, when you're dealing with trillions, need to be, you know, the most exceptional. In their moon shot scenario, ones and zeros somehow arrive, somehow survive the battering from solar radiation. There are meaningful cost advantages over data centers on Earth and SpaceX wins a fifth of the forecast market for AI infrastructure computing capacity. In a worst case scenario, it's a dud with a base case 4% of capacity. The latter is given a 50% chance of happening.
Speaker 1:Failure has a 43% waiting and the moonshot scenario, the rump. But even that 7% chance adds $93,000,000,000 to the overall valuation Whole
Speaker 2:lot of mumbo jumbo. Whole lot of mumbo jumbo.
Speaker 1:You're not buying.
Speaker 2:It's a collection of some great businesses. Yeah. Some businesses that have a lot of potential. It is valuation that only one man on earth can achieve. Yeah.
Speaker 1:And he's Well, done if you're trying to take your company public, you gotta do it on the New York Stock Exchange. Wanna change the world? Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. There's a whole bunch more posts. A post officially the first trillionaire in the entire world in USD terms.
Speaker 1:Someone said that there because of hyperinflation, there have been many trillionaires in other countries denominated in other foreign currencies. I think Zimbabwe is one among them. Potentially, the German Reichsmark at one point Yeah. Minted a trillionaire potentially. But
Speaker 2:I wanted to pull up this post from Founders Fund
Speaker 3:Yes.
Speaker 2:Because it was so inspiring for me. They posted this this morning and they said it is possible for ordinary people to choose to be extraordinary. And I've always just seen Elon as such a normal, ordinary guy. Right? Like he's just like an ordinary guy.
Speaker 1:He's not
Speaker 2:and so had been ordinary for the last
Speaker 1:twenty years, but he was he was thirty years ago, forty years ago. Like he was like he was like a SaaS founder with like a a decent business that sold and IPO'd. Like, he was like a good unicorn founder of today.
Speaker 2:Yeah. And I don't view good unicorn founders of today as ordinary people.
Speaker 3:Okay. Go back to
Speaker 2:Like almost every time you meet them, they're elite on like a couple dimensions.
Speaker 6:Oh, okay.
Speaker 2:And so my argument is that like Elon was on at no point in his life would you have met him and thought, yeah, it's just an average Joe.
Speaker 1:Ordinary guy?
Speaker 2:He's an ordinary guy. I don't know. Think I texting our friends over at FF poking a little fun at this. I said, Elon Musk is a very ordinary guy. This inspired me.
Speaker 1:So
Speaker 2:don't know. There is
Speaker 1:a lot of ordinariness in
Speaker 2:You know what's not ordinary? His Diablo business. Investment Yeah. Of $20,000,000 at a $200,000,000 valuation into
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:SpaceX Yeah. Did get diluted Yeah. But it is still 53. Think like the best venture investment of all wait. No.
Speaker 2:I thought it was more like it's 50? I thought it was more like 80.
Speaker 1:80? I think it's closer to 8000000000000¢. I think I think they made 8000000000000¢.
Speaker 2:Got it.
Speaker 3:8,000,000,000,000
Speaker 1:pennies. PT needed a win.
Speaker 2:What was the return in basis points?
Speaker 1:He needed a win. Needed a win because apparently What was the return in basis points? Could have with him on chess.com. Have you seen this?
Speaker 2:Oh, yeah. Do we need to play this?
Speaker 3:We need
Speaker 1:to play the video of a gentleman on Instagram who found Peter Thiel's chess.com account, played him, and won
Speaker 2:Do you have the video pulled up?
Speaker 1:Lap. It's in the timeline deeper down there. Can we can we pull up Yeah.
Speaker 3:He sent it.
Speaker 1:Here we go. It is from Tuck Gessner on Instagram. He says he found Peter Thiel's chess account, played him. I mean, we already spoiled it.
Speaker 6:On chess.com. I don't know if anybody knows about this, but Peter Thiel has a chess.com account with his real name under which he's played over 50,000
Speaker 3:games over
Speaker 1:the past years.
Speaker 6:And the reason I know it's him is, first of all, his friends are all these Silicon Valley and ex
Speaker 2:Stanford What's And I put this account
Speaker 6:to a database called Opening Tree which allows me to cross reference his most played moves with his public tournament games that he played in the nineties and it's all the same stuff. So our game went e four, e five, knight f three, knight f six. I played the Stafford Gambit. And on move six gambit? What have we doing?
Speaker 3:Well, no. He didn't fall for the gambit, but
Speaker 2:And I four here. Okay.
Speaker 6:And the point is that when he takes back, played bishop takes f two, winning his queen by
Speaker 3:see.
Speaker 6:So most players would just give up. They would just resign in this position. But Peter Thiel
Speaker 2:Does Never give up. Played on.
Speaker 6:And a few moves later, he made another very elementary mistake. Played bishop takes a seven. This is the kind of move that you see beginners make. Very rarely does anybody over 2,000 not see that you can just play b six afterwards which traps the bishop and I'm just gonna scoop it up in a few moves. Even here he didn't resign.
Speaker 6:He kept playing on until I checkmated him shortly thereafter. I find this really funny because Peter Thiel has a reputation of being a sort of chess genius. So I wanted to take this opportunity to show the real Peter Thiel who falls I
Speaker 1:don't know any of those moves. He uses to resign. Elon.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Guy.
Speaker 1:Proof that they're all ordinary guys.
Speaker 2:Elon never gives up. Right? Famous picture of him standing there. Everything's in shambles. Never gives up.
Speaker 2:Also makes elementary mistakes sometimes. Picking a you know, accusing the president of things, you know, on
Speaker 3:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:You know, social media. Right? Kind of an elementary mistake, know, if you're a government contractor. Lawsuits. That's right.
Speaker 3:Right. And
Speaker 2:so again, I think PT never gives up, makes some elementary mistakes.
Speaker 1:There's a lesson there.
Speaker 2:Lesson in there.
Speaker 1:Lesson in there, for sure. Let's pull up this post from Andy showing a visual guide to the SpaceX IPO while I tell you about Codex. Codex is a powerful workspace for getting work done with AI agents. Whether you're writing code, analyzing data, creating content, or automating business workflows, Codex helps you move projects forward from start to finish. So what is this saying?
Speaker 1:What's gonna happen here?
Speaker 2:This is technical analysis.
Speaker 1:Okay. This is technical analysis. And he's saying that it's gonna pop on IPO day, sell off for three straight years
Speaker 2:Woah.
Speaker 1:And then go to the moon. Is that this? Is that and and every he's basically saying that everyone's gonna be taking victory laps if the stock trades down
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 1:In twenty twenty six, twenty twenty seven, 2028. But then ultimately, they will all be upset. I mean, there there some crazy articles out there that are like the rise and fall of Elon Musk a year ago like
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 1:He can't possibly come back from the reputational damage he's done to himself from
Speaker 2:the the cars. No one's
Speaker 1:buying the cars and it's like, well, they're buying the stocks. So, you know, it's gonna be okay, I guess. Founders fund investment at 200,000,000 might be the best venture investment in history. A lot of that is just the holding to fruition, like, because the early investors in Google or Microsoft or Amazon, like a lot of them distributed at IPO at like a 5,000,000,000 value
Speaker 3:some of the founders. Right? Bill Gates.
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah. He sold too early. Right? Paper hands
Speaker 2:No. The only thing is I do think Masa hasn't beat I I think Masa hasn't beat with Alibaba. Oh. Because it was like 20,000,000 into 70,000,000,000 Sure. On a shorter time horizon.
Speaker 1:Oh. Masa get mugged mugged. Anyway
Speaker 2:Pete's even
Speaker 1:more risk. McAllister Higgins says, I'm at the of a multi layer
Speaker 2:into Alibaba for 20,000,000 in 2000. By the 2014 IPO, it was worth 75,000,000,000.
Speaker 1:Okay. Well Wow. Game's not over. It's young. They can make it all back.
Speaker 1:So I'm at the bottom of a multilayer SPV and I'm looking forward to the SpaceX IPO in much the same way a golden retriever looks toward looks forward to a car ride. Thrilled to be involved. No clue how cars work. Unsure if going to the park or getting neutered. And Matt Grimm says, Godspeed, sir.
Speaker 1:It's actually so funny to be in that position where you're just you you just have no idea what you're actually or where the what you'll wind up getting.
Speaker 2:This a new format by the way.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Oh, wait. This whole golden retriever thing?
Speaker 2:No. Like I'm I'm predicting Oh.
Speaker 1:Bunch of
Speaker 2:other ways to apply that.
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 1:That makes sense. I like it. Like it. Pick pick the next the next post while I tell everyone about console. Console builds AI agents that automates 70% of IT, HR, finance for giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets.
Speaker 1:Brad Gerstner is sharing some historical performance of IPOs. Split adjusted Nvidia IPO ed at 4¢ and is at $200 today. Apple at 10¢, 292 today. These big tech companies have all delivered fantastic returns. And the question is, why is he posting this today?
Speaker 1:Is he putting SpaceX in this category? I mean, one other Elon Musk company is in this category. Yeah. That's certainly the pitch here.
Speaker 2:Not not a super fair not that he's comparing to to to or trying to allude that there there's
Speaker 1:The big thing is
Speaker 2:all of these companies IPO'd before the private markets had evolved to capture, you know, massive amounts of the Yeah. Value creation.
Speaker 1:Amazon is a $2,500,000,000,000 company. SpaceX is IPO ing at 2,200,000,000,000. When Amazon IPO ed, it was not as big as ExxonMobil. It was not jumping directly into the top five, top 10 biggest companies in the world. And so, like, there's always this question of, like, okay, where will like, it's not it's it's always interesting when a company IPOs and you're like, oh, they could be a disruptor and they could flip something.
Speaker 1:Like, I was always thinking of this, like, Figma, obviously, up stocks up and down, but, like, there was a very clear, like, well, what if Figma flips Adobe? Like, okay. You know, is that possible? Is that your thesis? Well, Figma IPO is at at 20 and Figma's at and Adobe's at a 100.
Speaker 1:Like, you can see closing the gap and that's the five x and that's probably what a lot of people were were, like, underwriting against. But it's hard. Like, you really do need to expand the global economy, get to Mars, do all the crazy things to actually create a new class of company to get that type of return. Because if you're getting the Brad Gerstner style, you know, 100x, 1000x post IPO return, you're looking at a quadrillion dollar company Yeah. Which is a 100 quill a 100 quadrillion dollar a 100 quadrillion pennies, which is a lot.
Speaker 2:Can you imagine telling somebody that two years ago Mhmm. That SpaceX in 2026 would be worth 2,300,000,000,000 and Meta would be worth 1,400,000,000,000 with Meta at 200,000,000,000 of revenue growing 30% year over year.
Speaker 1:It's crazy. It's wild.
Speaker 2:Even Amazon being even in the same being within striking distance.
Speaker 1:We've debated with friends about who's the GOAT, Elon, Bezos, how do you how do you match them up? And we have a friend
Speaker 3:who's always like, well And Amazon Amazon owns
Speaker 1:cash flow then.
Speaker 2:Amazon owns like roughly like somewhere like around 20% of anthropic Oh,
Speaker 1:Mhmm. Yeah. And
Speaker 2:it is just we get so desensitized to these
Speaker 1:large special founder, special company, unique situation. Dan Primak is talking about the IPO pop. He says, if you view a typical IPO pop as 10%, then the bar for SpaceX is $162, which is the current indicated open, although it's been falling. Okay. So as Fact
Speaker 2:check, false.
Speaker 1:Okay. Explain.
Speaker 3:Mean, it's much higher than $1.06 2. Right?
Speaker 1:Oh. So it's popped more than 20%.
Speaker 3:It's like a I mean, what yeah. 24%.
Speaker 2:Leave it to Tyler to make a stock chart that show the price per share.
Speaker 1:I was like, I just thought I gonna market cap. No. We can flip it. We can flip it around. I like market caps.
Speaker 1:Anyway
Speaker 2:I pulled up Huge news for DTS. Valuation valuations at IPO for Nvidia
Speaker 3:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:Was 430,000,000 fully diluted Dollars. Yes.
Speaker 1:Percents.
Speaker 2:Apple was a $101,300,000,000
Speaker 1:or cents?
Speaker 2:Microsoft was 777,000,000 market cap.
Speaker 1:77,000,000 what?
Speaker 2:Dollars? Dollars or cents?
Speaker 1:The US dollars.
Speaker 2:Or dollars
Speaker 1:because the real real move is to is to like IPO in like Zimbabwean cents or something. Or or German Reichsmarks. Because then you're just like, yeah. I'm I'm actually a trillion dollar company too. You're like, well, what what would it be in in USD?
Speaker 1:And you're like, it's a $4,000,000.
Speaker 3:0.01¢.
Speaker 1:0.01¢.
Speaker 3:Or $0.01.
Speaker 1:Huge news for the d gens in the audience. There's already a SpaceX two x levered ETF.
Speaker 3:Like, you got
Speaker 1:two x SpaceX exposure on day one. It's handing an AK 47 to a monkey according to liquidity. It's happening. It's happening, folks.
Speaker 3:I saw this earlier and it looked like like that ETF was trading before SpaceX was actually trading.
Speaker 1:Maybe they got exposure through some SPV
Speaker 3:or Yeah. I guess I guess that's not
Speaker 1:Defiance Defiance Daily two x SpaceX ETF seeks to provide 200% of SpaceX's daily performance. So they do it synthetically. They do it with a whole bunch of other instruments. There's a lot going on there. Let me tell you about Cisco.
Speaker 1:Critical infrastructure for the AI era. Unlock seamless real time experiences.
Speaker 3:New network with Cisco.
Speaker 2:Big shout out to our friends at one three seven ventures. Justin, Alex
Speaker 1:They invested one time in SpaceX. Three times in SpaceX. Seven times
Speaker 2:Four times.
Speaker 1:Seven times in SpaceX?
Speaker 2:10 times.
Speaker 1:They've invested 12 37 times in SpaceX, basically.
Speaker 2:Nominative is actually crazy. Crazy. They ripped one three seven ventures? Because we're gonna invest in SpaceX a 137 It worked. And it worked.
Speaker 2:And they They printed. The level of conviction.
Speaker 1:And Justin Fischner Wolfson has a profile in the New York Times talking about his story building that firm. And they do more than secondaries. They do more than SpaceX. Obviously, they're huge investors in all sorts of great companies. Many of them have been featured on the show.
Speaker 1:But SpaceX has stood out as a particularly interesting journey for them since they've been amassing ownership for fifteen years and they've done a fantastic job with that. The firm now owns more than 1% of SpaceX worth roughly $20,000,000,000 at the expected 1,770,000,000,000 valuation, so it's closer to 30 now. Congratulations. This will most likely define my career, he's Justin said in an interview this week. Congrats to Christian Garrett.
Speaker 1:Congrats to Justin and the rest of the team over there. Heard in the chats, I put $1,000,000 SpaceX order through a private bank and just got filled only 50 k, one twentieth of what this individual asked for. Most people I spoke to have gotten even less. We had some folks on the team put in orders for 20 shares, 50 shares, 100 shares, and only get a small fraction of that. How much did you get, Tyler?
Speaker 3:I got 22.
Speaker 1:22 shares? But you requested more?
Speaker 3:Yes. And then yeah. I mean, we've had a lot of people they say they only got one share. Brutal. The one share wonder.
Speaker 3:That's almost worse than zero shares because you can see it in your portfolio.
Speaker 1:Yeah. What if they could give you short interest? They're like, you asked for five shares, we but give you negative one share. We give you we give you the inverse ETF, actually. You're it's over for you.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I was I was surprised by this. Yeah. Given the given the offers that were given the offers that were flying around, I got offered like a $50,000,000 allocation. Obviously, not wasn't gonna take that down myself, but I just
Speaker 1:Wow. Just say you risk off.
Speaker 2:No. I But I but I responded to the guy and I was like, I don't even know. I'm not even gonna text anyone because like it feels like this is there's like so much allocation available for everyone Yeah. That it's kind of it's just not even worth firing off techs.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:But turns out there there was there was It's a lot more demand than
Speaker 1:it's making its way through the through the world, through the through the iMessage DMs. Buddy needs to relax, says RJC. SpaceX IPO this week. Thoughts on SpaceX? SpaceX IPO, what are we thinking, boss?
Speaker 1:Who is this?
Speaker 5:This is
Speaker 1:Kyle. I was your Uber driver three months
Speaker 2:had a funny This this Nick got a funny Uber
Speaker 1:drivers don't get your phone number anymore. It all happens in the app. This is ridiculous.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Conversation, they exchanged numbers.
Speaker 1:Yeah. And also, these just like like the rendering of the text, it doesn't look iMessage enough to me. I don't believe it funny.
Speaker 2:Nick did get a funny text this morning
Speaker 1:What did say?
Speaker 2:From somebody who is certainly not Mhmm. Professional Not a professional investor saying Okay. Texting him advice being like, you wanna get in, but then you wanna get out. Oh.
Speaker 1:Or you
Speaker 2:wanna get in and get out. Okay. Get in, get out. And then get out. Get out.
Speaker 2:Get in but then get out by the end of the day. And sitting there with this one chair. Just kidding like, potentially like, I don't know Yeah. Might end up being the right advice but probably Yeah. Like
Speaker 1:One of my favorite things is the retail traders who focus on like apophilic apophilic interpretations of charts, chartology. Have you seen this stuff?
Speaker 2:Yeah. I was doing this. I was I was drawing the lines Yeah. This morning. Yeah.
Speaker 1:Could see trend of, like, okay. This is the classic head and shoulders pattern. This is the camel. This is the dromedary camel. This is the elephant pattern.
Speaker 1:You got a draft formation following there. Clearly gonna trade up after this.
Speaker 2:Weather. Weather.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Weather reporting. It's good. Yeah. You're not Mike, so I don't know if we're gonna hear you.
Speaker 1:Let me tell you about Figma. Agents meet the canvas. Your AI agents can now create and modify your Figma files with design system context. Let's go to the Figma big board.
Speaker 3:I see a large IPO on the horizon.
Speaker 1:We're gonna brand it in just a little bit. Gonna This
Speaker 2:whole plane watching the SpaceX IPO except for one dude watching Avatar.
Speaker 3:This is
Speaker 1:a good meme. I've seen this before because it was about the Knicks game, I think.
Speaker 2:Yeah. That was the original photo.
Speaker 1:It was interesting. I I was expecting SpaceX IPO to make the the front page of the Wall Street Journal. It did not. It also didn't make it to the front page of the Financial Times. I imagine it will tomorrow or Monday.
Speaker 1:How? But North America's World What? Paid off in Mexico. The World Cup is a bigger
Speaker 3:World Cup?
Speaker 1:National international news.
Speaker 2:For the Wall Street Journal?
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:The Journal of Wall Street, John?
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 2:They couldn't have predicted that, hey, there might be the biggest IPO of all
Speaker 1:because normally normally things get get kicked out of the front page
Speaker 2:sees a turtle head forming on the chart. Turtle
Speaker 1:Turtle head. It's a it's a classic Binturong formation or something.
Speaker 2:Also saying that an Iranian trillionaire is about 720,000 USD.
Speaker 1:There you go. There you go. Well, let's give it up for Nikita Beer. Generational run. Sold two companies and then did a third company.
Speaker 1:Didn't even need to acqui hire it to get a, you know, a fantastic outcome here with SpaceX. He got a DM from Sean Maguire about two years ago, a little over two years ago. Sean says, hey, I have a crazy opportunity for you. Nikita just says, I'm in. I I like this.
Speaker 1:It's such a great way to respond to just because you say I'm in, that's not gonna be binding if you don't wanna do it. It's it's just a way to say, I I, you know, I wanna hear more. But it was clearly to come to Axe, the everything app, work on a bunch of innovative features there, which have shipped, and the app has gotten great. And we love it and use it all the time.
Speaker 2:More addicted than ever, Nikita.
Speaker 1:And then jump into x AI and then jump into SpaceX and then be at the Nasdaq for this IPO. What a great run.
Speaker 2:And Nikita. Yeah. Super happy for Nikita. He jumped into the Internet's dive bar. Yeah.
Speaker 2:He started getting into some fist fights. Yeah. You know, swinging
Speaker 1:There were prediction markets about like, is Nikita gonna get fired this week and stuff? And he figured out how to
Speaker 2:He figured
Speaker 1:it deliver more and more value, keep people happy. And he kept I I think the key thing was that he never he would be he would make aggressive like and like user hostile moves, but they were always for the people that always ignored they were annoying to the power users. So it would be like, there's a thousand people
Speaker 2:response time.
Speaker 1:Really good.
Speaker 2:Lesson in there.
Speaker 1:Extremely online. So he would he would be like, oh, there's thousands of people that are mad at Nikita. And I'd be like, what are they mad about? Like, I'm not mad. And it's like, oh, they banned bots who are operating from North Korea who have been hacking cryptocurrency schemes or something like that.
Speaker 1:I'm like, yeah, actually, I'm glad that they're mad at Nikita. Nikita is doing the right thing. This is good. And so, you know, he picked fights. He picked a lot of fights with some very broad audience.
Speaker 2:Like a guy who is mad about the revenue share program and all he says every morning is good morning. Comment to like a million posts. Yeah. And the other thing, after after the acquisition, a lot of people like were speculating, oh, oh, is TBPN you know, are they gonna shadow ban TBPN? Yep.
Speaker 2:A good proof point today, Elon Musk
Speaker 1:Liked
Speaker 2:our was liked one of our posts this morning. Yep. And so we were never shadow banned. Yep. I genuinely I genuinely always trusted Nikita and the whole x team to not put their thumb on the scale.
Speaker 2:We never saw anything in the data, so we were never like worried about it. Yeah. But they've been fair and we're happy to be on this platform as crazy and chaotic as it is and
Speaker 1:Really diving
Speaker 2:we're happy for their success. Yeah. So
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Speaker 2:Here's a good post. Yes. Peter Diamandis. He says, people
Speaker 1:Yes, sir.
Speaker 2:Ask me how I stay so optimistic. The honest answer, I read the data, not the headlines. I have a feeling I know what data he was reading, John. You know what data?
Speaker 1:What data?
Speaker 2:Morgan Stanley. Yeah. Who said they see a path for SpaceX generate half $1,000,000,000,000 in revenue by 2030.
Speaker 1:Right.
Speaker 2:If you're looking at that data, how can you not be optimistic?
Speaker 1:Path is a path. Path is a path. The flip side is that this we're getting in the world, you know, NVIDIA earnings are holding up the global economy. Ken Kirkland says the entire world after the SpaceX IPO will say, every every society is one Falcon nine failure away from chaos because people will be watching the SpaceX earnings, SpaceX launches very intently. I wonder what the correlation between SpaceX launch setbacks or successes will be with the stock because we're at a point where the actual launch business is less material to where earnings come in, where valuation comes in.
Speaker 1:I feel like the stock, you know, has, you know, throughout two decades has been able to mean, there's been very rough moments, obviously, with early failures. But in general, you know, if if Starship the Starship program gets delayed, that hasn't been something where it's like, SpaceX is gonna do a down route now. It's just been like, oh, that's a bummer. They're gonna have to invest more. But a Falcon nine launch failure is not that material when they're launching so many of them.
Speaker 1:It's a funny idea, but I disagree with the actual takeaway there. Anyway, let me tell you about Codex and the Road to Olympia expansion pack, which is sponsoring this episode. It takes your training split and refactors it into production grade hypertrophy code. No more junk volume. No more spaghetti programming.
Speaker 1:No more deprecated rear delt functions. Just clean, scalable mass architecture with automated progressive overload, test coverage for calves, and one critical warning build failed insufficient carbs. The Codex Road to Olympia expansion pack is available now. That's a good one.
Speaker 2:That's a good one. Well, John, it's noon. Yeah. I think it's time.
Speaker 1:Okay. Okay. Let's reveal our predictions. So we all said can we do it in percentages? Or I guess we should do it in market caps?
Speaker 1:What what's best?
Speaker 2:Price per share.
Speaker 1:Price per share. Okay. What did it what what was the price per share when it IPO?
Speaker 3:$1.35.
Speaker 1:$1.35. Okay. So I said 0%. I said $1.35. I said No faith.
Speaker 1:The bankers This is The funniest outcome is that the bankers got it perfectly correct. The market is perfectly efficient. No pop, no sell off, completely flat line
Speaker 2:on the chart. That's that's it. It's a very Kukan bit, but like you don't want that. No. No.
Speaker 2:You want a 20% pop. Want a little bit of a pop. And I would say they've done that like pretty much they've gotten it very, very, very close. Right? Sitting at a 24 pop.
Speaker 1:24% pop.
Speaker 2:Four percent One
Speaker 1:sixty seven. Okay. So what did you say? What was your percentage
Speaker 2:I in percentages? Was
Speaker 1:I had 0%. Two It's at 24%.
Speaker 2:I was too bullish.
Speaker 3:You were bullish.
Speaker 2:I expecting somewhere around two a hundred and eighty three dollars to share by two minutes
Speaker 1:$83.
Speaker 2:We're currently at 167. So Way off.
Speaker 1:What percentage is
Speaker 2:that? I thought it would open I thought it was gonna open above $1.70 and then run more.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:Turns out it opened in the sixties, dropped down to around $1.58 and then built back up from there.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:I was off.
Speaker 1:So I had so I had 0%, you had 33%. It's at 24%.
Speaker 3:I was just right. I went thirty one percent
Speaker 1:Thirty one
Speaker 3:which would be a 176.
Speaker 1:176.
Speaker 3:So I'm a
Speaker 2:little high.
Speaker 3:A little high.
Speaker 1:So you got the
Speaker 3:But I win.
Speaker 1:You win. You win. And and does everyone wanna know what Tyler wins? What the what the what the prize was today? The prize is that whoever wins gets to do one extra ramp ad read.
Speaker 3:It was such a treat and I way.
Speaker 2:Yeah. That is special.
Speaker 1:And I get to I hoard them every day. So here you go, Tyler. I got it. Feel free to read the Ramp ad for the audience.
Speaker 3:Ramp. Time is money, save both. Easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more.
Speaker 1:All in one place. There we go. That was great. I hope you enjoyed that, Tyler. Don't get too comfortable with that.
Speaker 2:Get back to Tyler. There we go. It's gone. There we go. Funniest outcome is the most likely.
Speaker 1:The funniest outcome would be 10,000,000,000,000 or 0? No. No?
Speaker 2:The chat says it.
Speaker 1:What is it?
Speaker 2:67. 6167.
Speaker 1:Okay. Yeah. I did have that up. I did have that down. One of the things I was gonna
Speaker 2:that is the most funny outcome if you're 12 years old. Like, I can't think First
Speaker 3:stock split, it goes to $4.20. Yeah. Right? That's pretty good.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Well, there are some other stories that we should run through now that the SpaceX IPO has settled a little bit.
Speaker 2:Allison's old cup boat is on the market. Oh. It's big. And it is a 1999 Custom International America's Cup class USCG certified 20 packs. It's 84 feet.
Speaker 2:It is listed for a $149,000.
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 3:Oh, that's
Speaker 2:a good fantastic looking boat and they're at they're they're giving it away. The comments say it it's been severely chopped up so it can operate as a tourist boat.
Speaker 3:Oh.
Speaker 2:And anyways, please, one of you in the in the chat or listening later, please pick this up. Mhmm. And let's slap some ramp logos on it.
Speaker 1:Love it.
Speaker 2:Let's ride around. We'll do we'll do a live show from the from the boat.
Speaker 1:It was great. James Murphy, the CEO of LMNT. Have we not had him on the show somehow? Because we get LMNT. We we drink them all the time in the studio.
Speaker 1:Anyway, he filed a lawsuit against a company called Oasis. He says Oasis misled consumers knowingly, repeatedly. The case against the case with Element Tea is straightforward. It's linked below. But this case is about more than that to me.
Speaker 1:It's about fabricated fear for profit. This is about a group of online health creators that have lost their way terrorizing people, especially new parents of young kids and those with vulnerable conditions. There are hundreds of accounts now manufacturing scientific sounding content often with AI, that they know almost nothing about. Oasis has misled millions of people about hundreds of products, and our day in court is coming. You might have seen these viral posts where sort of an up and coming brand, an RX BAR or David Protein or an Element Tea or any of these others will screenshot, like, something that's like, okay.
Speaker 1:Even if you're like, I don't like that particular ingredient, it's like generally a health food, and then it'll be like Cheetos or Doritos is like 10 times healthier or something like that. And so that was going viral and people were noticing that, wait, all the health foods are getting really poorly rated if they're independent brands, challenger brands, And things like Coca Cola, beer, whiskey, alcohols were had, like, 99, no problems. And it seemed like there was a lot of a lot of potential hallucinations in the data, a lot of, you know, less rigor. And so, I believe Quinn Emanuel has been retained for this lawsuit, and it should be, pretty crazy. James Murphy shares more.
Speaker 1:He says,
Speaker 3:I keep hearing from more companies that have
Speaker 1:been harmed by Oasis and other fear maxing accounts that misrepresent testing. So Oasis would claim to test the products for different ingredients, different harmful substances, put that on a
Speaker 2:they weren't actually doing their own testing.
Speaker 1:Okay. They weren't.
Speaker 2:They were taking test results
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 2:That the brands had published. Yeah. And then misreading Oh. The results
Speaker 1:Interesting.
Speaker 2:And publishing. So at one point
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:At one point, you know and and disclaimer, I know James very well. Yeah. I I I know Cormack. Cormack, at one point, the founder of Oasis was considering doing PMF or Die.
Speaker 1:Oh, really?
Speaker 2:Not for Oasis but yet another idea.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:It didn't make sense for him to do because Oasis was, you know, growing and already at at some scale. And I think that Cormack gen gen sort of generally has good intentions but has created what I think is a system that that ultimately profits off of creating massive fear around products that people love, products that are made by many entrepreneurs that are friends of mine that I trust, products that I, you know, use every single day. Yeah. Thinking like Kettle and Fire Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Element, things like that.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Kettle and Fire got a really low rating. Something like
Speaker 2:They got a I think a maybe a one out of 10 or one out of a 100 at one point. Which which again Yeah. So anyway, so he like has ended up in a cycle where like the more fear and controversy that he creates, the more app downloads he drives, the more subscription revenues that he drives and it's created a very vicious cycle. Cormack has openly admitted that the way to go viral online is to be divisive, to be controversial.
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:And so he just basically picks popular brands Mhmm. And goes after them. Right? And so with Element as a good example, he like fully misread the results, put out a bunch of super viral videos about it, left them up for over a year. Wow.
Speaker 2:Again, there's there's views coming in. Element is suffering harm from that. James has if you read some of his posts, he's talked about this. Like, you get you get like way more lead from having like a clean organic salad than like a lot of you know, lead ends up in like parts per billion.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. It's it's so low. It's in everything. It's in air.
Speaker 1:Everything in biology is about concentration.
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 1:You can have like one part per trillion of like cyanide and that can be healthier for you than having drinking, you know, a 100 gallons of water. Yeah. Because if you drink too much water, you will die. Right? And these things matter.
Speaker 1:And so the the just just keyword searching for particular substances is not enough.
Speaker 2:And I went I read through the entire the entire complaint. Yeah. And again, these are allegations. It's up to the court and the judge to determine what's factual. But ultimately ultimately, my personal view is that it's not looking good for Yeah.
Speaker 2:Oasis and Cormac. I think sort of they claim that they're they scaled faster than their quality control. Which sometimes happens. But at the same time, I don't think that that is a good answer when you're knowingly leaving up content that is damaging companies Yeah. And you're profiting off of that damage Yeah.
Speaker 2:For literally over a year. And this is just one brand. Yeah. And so there's been hundreds of brands that have been damaged. They added using what I think are like vibe coded rating system.
Speaker 2:They added hundreds of thousands of products Mhmm. Without actually checking them.
Speaker 3:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:And so, ultimately, it's like, it's one thing. James has had issues.
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:Element has had issues with this company for, I wanna say now, according to the complaint, fifteen months or something like that. So it's not like he had some issue and immediately was like People were DM ing. I'm taking it.
Speaker 1:The founders were probably DM ing immediately being like, wait, what?
Speaker 2:Yeah. So they've they've gone back and forth for a long time. Yeah. Cormark hasn't backed down. Yeah.
Speaker 2:And so this wasn't something like slight issue boom lawsuit. Yeah. This was like Over the tried to resolve it over the course of a year. Yeah.
Speaker 1:The Kettle and Fire getting a
Speaker 2:And you can't like you can't spread misinformation about companies Mhmm. For that long in that way.
Speaker 1:Without getting a phone call from Quinn Emanuel.
Speaker 2:Well, yeah. I mean, ultimately, it's like the worst. If if you're gonna get sued, it's literally the worst person to have on the other side. Like, it is not they are you know, we've had Sean Quinn. We've had founder Quinn.
Speaker 2:Here on the show with us. He's the most feared.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:And yeah. I don't I don't know how this gets resolved.
Speaker 1:I hope Or or or so I understand how the brands were harmed. Like, Kettle and Fire had a one out of a 100 score. I hilariously like the Miller High Life glass bottle 40 ounce malt liquor beer had an 81 out of a 100. And so you can imagine how Kettle and
Speaker 2:Firewood was. Defense. Yes. In Cormac Defense, he claims that different categories get different scores. Okay.
Speaker 2:But that is not how a consumer is going to
Speaker 3:experience.
Speaker 1:Because like as a consumer product. Yeah. As a consumer, I switch even though I love Justin, I switched from Kettle and Fire to Miller High Life. And I was and I was cooking For your
Speaker 2:daily protein.
Speaker 1:Exactly. And I actually switched
Speaker 2:heating it up on the stove like soup?
Speaker 1:Yeah. I would cook everything with it. I'd make it I'd use it as a stock like I use Kettle and Fire.
Speaker 2:You were instead of instead of
Speaker 1:So
Speaker 2:were Kettle and Fire which is like a clean source of protein.
Speaker 1:It was a big debate at Thanksgiving last year where I insisted that my whole family used miller of high life.
Speaker 2:Putting it on stove Yeah. Putting scoops of whey protein Yeah. In it
Speaker 1:Exactly.
Speaker 2:To kind of recreate something like a bone broth
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. But with healthier food.
Speaker 1:And I thought I was I thought I was getting 81 times the health benefit. So I don't know. Maybe there should be a maybe there should be
Speaker 2:Can you hit the pho? Pho.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Mike's Hard Lemonade also got an 81 and Monster the Beast Hard Pink Poison can got 70. I I actually switched from Element to Mike's Hard Lemonade as a pre workout. And
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 1:I think I have a case to join the the class action if there is one for the
Speaker 2:yet, but here's the thing. You've you've done substantial amount of brand damage to potentially hundreds of brands on your platform Yeah. Which has its own damages associated with it while you've been Yeah. Profiting off of it. Yeah.
Speaker 2:The comp you know, Cormac talks about their MRR. They're doing hundreds of thousands of dollars a month of revenue. Yeah. And, yeah, I'm interested to see how it, you know, resolves. The ultimately
Speaker 1:to put some respect You have name for getting for making hundreds of thousands of dollars switching consumers from bone broth to Miller High Life. Like, can't not smile.
Speaker 3:It would have been would have been
Speaker 1:Rags to Rich's story.
Speaker 2:It would have been If you told me that was possible, I wouldn't have believed you.
Speaker 1:That's absolutely why.
Speaker 2:No. But you've You you know, old The results of the last year is that millions of people have
Speaker 1:Yes. Are
Speaker 2:more more scared. Yeah. There's very real reasons. Like I walk into the gas station Yeah. And I'm on high alert.
Speaker 2:I'm like everything in
Speaker 1:give me the Miller highlight. I
Speaker 2:got the blinders on. I don't want anything that's bad for me. No. I think like there are a lot of consumer packaged goods Yeah. That No.
Speaker 2:Of course. Effectively poisoned.
Speaker 1:Of course.
Speaker 2:But when you build a business
Speaker 1:But you mean like literally poison? Are you talking about the the Monster Energy Pink Poison can because that's the flavor of that particular product?
Speaker 2:The one that got it got a 60 or
Speaker 1:I got 71 out of a 100. Much better for you than LMT apparently. Pink poison can is wild.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Branding. Now, I I would I guess my my I don't know. Know, again, steel man Cormack Yeah. He seems to be like hiring more people.
Speaker 2:They've never, to my knowledge, had any like scientists or Mhmm. Any anyone on the team. And so getting some of those, getting like a food scientist Yeah. On board. I think they've taken down some listings.
Speaker 1:Yeah. It's hard because if you if you put up a listing and that shows up in SEO for a while, like, and someone goes to an authoritative web page, learns what they think is a fact, just taking it down, like you're not able to actually reach that person and correct the record. You know, the community notes feature on X is like pretty good, but it's hard because like if you didn't interact with that post and then it gets a and then it gets a community note later, that's probably not gonna resurface unless it's such a big story that it's like, oh, we all thought this thing and it's
Speaker 2:actually Posts that you spend a lot of time on do not resurface unless a quote of it Yep. Goes like
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. It needs to be its own story.
Speaker 2:Especially on
Speaker 1:on
Speaker 2:Instagram. Instagram, which Especially doesn't even have like a cool functionality, which is where
Speaker 1:It happens sometimes. When when there's like there's some there's some idea that's going viral and then the debunk is so satisfying and such good content that everyone sort of updates Yeah. Collectively. But that's rare.
Speaker 2:And I ultimately I I I feel again, there's there's hundreds of companies Mhmm. That have experienced what it's like to be on the receiving end of like, you know, a platform that doesn't fully understand the category that they're operating in. Yeah. Yeah. Where they're sitting there being like, I put two years into developing like the best possible version that I could ever make of this product.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Like, going above and beyond and I'm being rated, like, 90% less than pink poison from Monster.
Speaker 1:Yeah. You
Speaker 2:know? Yeah. It's like it's it's like, I do believe that there's probably been hundreds of millions of dollars of damage Yeah. Done and damage done to the best actors in the space. Like, as a c Yeah.
Speaker 2:As somebody that likes trying new CPG products, like, I will often find that there's like a window of time Yeah. That's usually like ten years before something like falls off. Right?
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:It's like founder starts it. It's like very mission driven. It's obsessed with quality. They they get a lot of customers because people love the product and like that you can just feel that the founder is like obsessed.
Speaker 3:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:And like I will I love buying products where I know the person. And like, I trust this person? Mhmm. I know, you know, James quite quite well. Yeah.
Speaker 2:I know, you know, Justin Yeah. Even better. And it's like, if I know these guys are giving their products to their family, and I know how obsessed they are with health, I know they have done everything they possibly could have to make the best possible product in the category.
Speaker 5:And
Speaker 2:so for for entrepreneurs like that to be on the receiving end, while big CPG Yeah. Just gets a total pass on pretty much seemingly everything
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Is just like it is serve it is doing the exact it is having the exact opposite effect that you would want to have on the category, which is like hurting the good actors and propping up the bad actors. And like, it wouldn't be unreasonable to to think that the entire platform was a was a front for big CPG to try to keep down Mhmm. Upstarts. I'm not saying that at all. Don't believe that at all.
Speaker 2:But
Speaker 3:I think to to Cormark's credit, he does have a pretty cool Ferrari.
Speaker 1:Does he?
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. He wished they were renting.
Speaker 1:They were renting because they bought Ferraris. Yeah. Yeah. It's it's rough. But I'm I'm I'm glad that promotion.
Speaker 2:You're welcome. Again, I don't think he has bad intentions but Oh.
Speaker 1:He's He's moving a little bit too fast breaking a too well, a few too many things.
Speaker 2:Breaking a lot of things.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Breaking the trust
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Of a lot of consumers and I think some fantastic companies. And Cormac's welcome to come on the show.
Speaker 1:Talk about it. Talk about the rebirth, rebuild the next generation
Speaker 2:sure that I'm not sure I don't I don't necessarily think that the company should. I believe that Oasis now
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:Is losing trust from consumers
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:For very good reason. Right? They've been misled Yeah. For a very long time. So I'm not convinced that the company should continue.
Speaker 2:Cormack is like a very talented
Speaker 1:Yeah. Builder. Thing.
Speaker 2:Builder. Yep. Like he's done a lot with a small team.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:I would like to see him apply that skill set. Like if you wanna go viral a lot Yeah. Like maybe health is not the right category.
Speaker 1:It's hard. It's hard. Sleep, diet, and exercise gets you a lot. Yeah. The controversial stuff, all the fringe stuff, you you bump into good content not always being aligned with, like, good science or, like, what's legal.
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Anyway, do you see this new YC company? They're calling it the last agent your company will ever need. Its name, the company company. This is right out of your playbook. The company company of New York or San Francisco, they went full company, the company company.
Speaker 1:Very funny.
Speaker 3:Good domain too. The company I hope this is the last Really?
Speaker 1:Yeah. The company.company?
Speaker 2:Yeah. Is so funny how
Speaker 1:The company.ai.
Speaker 2:Put long this this naming convention will never die. I mean, Shotwell was at the Aerospace Corporation Oh, yeah. Which sounds like a fake company and like a movie, but is a real company that's been operating since 1960.
Speaker 1:The SpaceXploration company. We gotta hit the gong for Zane's dad. Zane from Knox Metal, he's been on the show and he
Speaker 3:has some
Speaker 1:fantastic news. His dad just beat cancer yesterday. He says one tough cookie. To Zane's dad. And I'm excited for his dad.
Speaker 1:Excited for Zane. I'm also excited about this gong because if you zoom in on this gong, it's sponsored. It's a sponsored gong in the hospital. Strickland Auto Group paid for the gong in the in the hospital when you beat cancer, you ring the Strickland Auto Group, the Strickland Auto Group gong. And if you zoomed in below, you can actually see that there are more sponsors.
Speaker 1:They have their own logo bar with Stratford Toyota, Strickland's Auto Mart, and Strickland's another company in the Strickland portfolio. And so I love that this local business went in and partnered with this hospital to celebrate cancer survivors. I thought it was really, really cool. Have you seen this guy who goes on it looks like a local radio show, and he calls people pretending to be an AI agent. Have you seen these?
Speaker 1:Okay. We gotta pull this one up. Kai, the AI guy, very funny, and it really encapsulates a lot of people who frustrations with AI. This one I thought was particularly fun. Let's play this.
Speaker 5:I'm here.
Speaker 7:Great. To ensure you are human, please open your fridge. Now, close the fridge.
Speaker 1:You gotta give it to the beginning. You refresh it? Because he introduces Your himself
Speaker 7:LG AI representative calling to speak with customer Natalie. If this is you, please say yes or press one.
Speaker 5:Yes.
Speaker 7:Thank you. We're calling due to a notification from your new LG smart fridge. But first, let's verify your identity. Are you currently next to your fridge? No.
Speaker 7:Please go to your fridge so we can continue.
Speaker 5:Okay. I'm here.
Speaker 7:Great. To ensure you are human, please open your fridge. Now close the fridge. Awesome. You're verified.
Speaker 7:We received a notification from your LG smart fridge indicating a high level of use. Do you know how many times you opened your fridge yesterday?
Speaker 5:I I don't.
Speaker 7:Please guess. 10
Speaker 5:times?
Speaker 7:Incorrect. Please guess again.
Speaker 5:Opened 20 times.
Speaker 7:Yesterday, you opened your LG smart fridge 27 times. Great job. You're not just setting records, you're breaking them. You're in the top 1% of LG smart fridge users. Congratulations.
Speaker 7:Okay. Your LG smart fridge notified us that you have never once said thank you after opening and closing the doors. Is this true?
Speaker 5:I don't know.
Speaker 7:It is. Have you not said thank you because a, you are not pleased with your LG smart fridge, b, there is always food in your mouth, or c, you were raised to be rude.
Speaker 5:Excuse me?
Speaker 7:Close. I believe you meant to say, I'm sorry, but great job.
Speaker 5:Okay. Can I speak to a real human, please?
Speaker 7:Connecting you with a sales representative. Sorry. All our lines are busy right now, but not me. Kai, your LG AI smart fridge correspondent. What can I help you with today?
Speaker 5:What do you mean? You called me.
Speaker 1:Calling people is AI.
Speaker 3:Prank calls are
Speaker 2:very fake. Very Very fake, but very good.
Speaker 3:We're bring prank calls.
Speaker 1:Oh, you think that's entirely fake?
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 1:Oh. That's a bit. I don't know.
Speaker 2:That's a bit for sure.
Speaker 1:You think that she's in on it? Because like you can do prank calls as a as a radio show host. Right?
Speaker 2:Yeah. But like Yeah. Oh, we just we we found people's data that had LG smart fridges.
Speaker 1:No. No. People. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 1:I know that
Speaker 2:It's like
Speaker 1:I know the smart fridge or you call 20 people until you get someone that has this LG smart fridge then you do the bit.
Speaker 2:The intonation in her voice at the end exposed it all.
Speaker 1:Also for social media, everything could be fake. Anyway, do you think this video of the six foot tall humanoids fighting is fake? Do you think this is a real video or a fake video? Because this poster says real steel is here. And it's not going well.
Speaker 1:These humanoids are are really struggling. It lost its head? That's pretty impressive. Okay. Oh, they're really kicking each other.
Speaker 1:It's such a wild thing to watch. This one isn't as ridiculous as many of that's a good pop up even after losing a head. What does the head do if it's just cosmetic? It's an interesting twist. Google is running new nationwide ads for t on TV for Waymo.
Speaker 1:Waymo says its autonomous driver is statistically 10 x safer than a human driver in the cities it served. Built to never blink, tire, or get distracted. Let's play this ad and give a review.
Speaker 5:Of us every year because we're human. Wonderful.
Speaker 1:Human driving?
Speaker 5:Complex. Oh.
Speaker 1:Human. They're taking shots. This is a hit piece on human drivers.
Speaker 5:Never gets tired or angry or has a few too many.
Speaker 3:Oh, has a few too many.
Speaker 1:I've seen shots of the drunk drivers in the audience.
Speaker 2:Are they gonna pan are they gonna pan to the telly
Speaker 1:mean, there's like Right now
Speaker 2:there's someone watching TTO. Are they gonna pan to the tele op center where
Speaker 4:because we
Speaker 5:had to
Speaker 3:get it.
Speaker 2:Where it's just like
Speaker 1:a That's the ease of the sleep. That's not gonna happen.
Speaker 2:Where it's like a brightly list lit room of, like, doctors and experts watching each screen. Just being AI researchers watching
Speaker 3:Is it illegal if if your tele op driver is drunk?
Speaker 1:I have no idea.
Speaker 5:Not because Yeah.
Speaker 1:I don't think there's any laws at all for any of this, really. It's all pretty uncharted. I think it's all very case by case negotiations, city by city.
Speaker 2:Well, Monidas says, brings me no joy to report I spent a year wondering why I was constantly sleepy and had a low sleep score on my whoop that was totally cured by simply stop wearing the whoop.
Speaker 1:By simply stop wearing stopping wearing the whoop.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 1:But
Speaker 2:And X is turning this into a whole news story, ditching whoop tracker cured sleep worries.
Speaker 1:Financiers? He said, finance that's hilarious. Yeah. I mean
Speaker 2:I don't
Speaker 1:I've I've I've I don't take before like like, you wanna track your sleep like, are you sleepy? Like, think about it.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Come up with an answer.
Speaker 2:That's your sleep is like I never actually care about the score. No. The score takes care of itself.
Speaker 1:Yeah. But with Eight Sleep, I like cooling like that's nice.
Speaker 2:Well, and with Eight Sleep, I'm actually interested in, like, how is my REM versus deep sleep trending
Speaker 1:Sure. Sure.
Speaker 2:Sure. Things like that Yeah. Resting heart rate, all all these other things. I never am like, oh, what's my score today?
Speaker 1:Oh, the score. Unless we were competing. Because then that was fun.
Speaker 3:It seems like one of those, like, Goodhart's laws Yes.
Speaker 1:Things. Yes. Right?
Speaker 3:Or if you like, oh, I need to get a better sleep score, then Yeah. It's it doesn't like work as well.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Review this Toyota, the m r two. New secret m r two from Toyota will be all thanks to Toyota's love of petrol sports cars. Where are you ranking this?
Speaker 2:Track weapon.
Speaker 1:This looks good. This looks like what it's sort of like the future should look like the future thing. I mean, those those headlights look like s f 90 headlights. That's sort of a crazy style
Speaker 2:So I like the m r two
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:But not as much as the Fiat t r I s three wheel electric vehicle. Let's pull up this video. I'm working. I really wanna get a fleet of these for the team.
Speaker 1:You're going you're going Fiat over Nissan Murano.
Speaker 2:Wait till wait not Yeah. Wait till you see this. Wait till you see this vehicle, John.
Speaker 1:See this vehicle.
Speaker 2:It is built like a truck but drives Okay.
Speaker 1:They obviously, it's built like a truck.
Speaker 2:But it drives Wow. Like a motorcycle. It has Like a motor steering It has like handlebars
Speaker 1:Okay. Front. Okay.
Speaker 2:It's like
Speaker 1:Are these US legal yet or are
Speaker 2:they planning to bring I mean, if they're not Rick If they're not
Speaker 1:Let you be Rick Shaw.
Speaker 2:Yeah. They're they're not, we're gonna make
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:January 6 look like a like a For
Speaker 5:your mini
Speaker 1:Just rising up. Single issue voter over here.
Speaker 2:I mean, this thing is absolutely stunning. This thing is stunning.
Speaker 1:You're going this over MR 2? No way. I'm going Nissan Murano.
Speaker 2:Look at that. Imagine being able to drive but having a throttle. I think having the capacity of a truck but having throttle.
Speaker 1:Mix of a fleet. We need a we need a Pugenator. We need a cross cap. We need an m r two.
Speaker 3:Key truck?
Speaker 1:A lucha a lucha Shrek edition. A g g three r s Toy Story edition. And then one of these. The Fiat. You gotta get this.
Speaker 2:Incredible. What are you putting in the spec too.
Speaker 1:What a spec? It's orange.
Speaker 2:Yeah. It is. That is the big question. What do you put in the bed of the truck?
Speaker 1:I don't know.
Speaker 2:Right? I think groceries?
Speaker 3:Anything.
Speaker 1:Grocery. Normally, would say a whole bunch of kettle and fire but I think I'm going Coors Highlight.
Speaker 2:Imagine compute commuting to the podcast studio with your best microphones in the truck bed. Into your little tiny truck. You should
Speaker 1:go to random everywhere.
Speaker 2:And so that's that's the country wide tour.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Take this around.
Speaker 1:Take this around.
Speaker 3:VPN on the road.
Speaker 1:What is this other car here that's in the the BMW? Okay. This is our first peek at the electric BMW m three. Is it? Says motor one.
Speaker 1:Meet the BMW m concept new class. Four electric motors, 100 kilowatt hour high performance battery, front bumper inspired by racing boats. What do you think? More picks coming out. Looks pretty good.
Speaker 1:I don't know. I'm not a big fan of these wheels. These wheels are sort of crazy with all the triangles. But otherwise, seems like a pretty normal car. I don't know.
Speaker 1:Never been like I don't think I've ever owned a BMW. I've been in a few. But what do you think, Jordy? Are you enjoying this this concept for the new BMW m three?
Speaker 2:I've been waiting I've been waiting for more I think that, like, kind of sportier EVs
Speaker 5:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:Will increase EVs overall popularity. Yeah. Because it people are gonna realize like, wait. Okay. It's a bit it's quite a bit heavier Yeah.
Speaker 2:But it's fast, it's fun. I think this looks fine. Yep. I've never been a BMW guy myself. Nothing against the brand.
Speaker 2:Yeah. But like I think that I think this will be like a very great experience for somebody that maybe probably
Speaker 1:Shrek Fiat.
Speaker 2:I mean, I'm obviously going with the Shrek.
Speaker 1:Shrek
Speaker 2:Fiat. The Shrek Fiat. T r
Speaker 1:a s. Shrek. Shrek only Shrek Fiat generated. We'll come back to that. I I I do think when it comes to electric vehicles, the lack of variety has been a little stifling, thanks to Elon Musk's absolute domination of the category with Tesla.
Speaker 1:You got the Model three, the Model y, which looks like a Model three, but just a little taller, and then the s, which looks like the three, and the y and the x that looks like the y. And then you got the Cybertruck, which is the crazy thing, which I actually think makes people appreciate the other formats. But the only EV convertible is the Hummer EV, which is an odd choice. There's no there's no just like put the top down Cabriolet Grand Tourer in EV.
Speaker 3:I mean, the original Roadster.
Speaker 1:Did they ever do it? No. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 1:The original Roadster, but they don't sell anymore. And so, like like that's a very niche car. There there aren't many two doors. There aren't many, you know, grand tourers. There's nothing that's like track focused really.
Speaker 1:There are like some one off, you know, like million dollar projects, but there's nothing in, like, okay. What is the Supra? What is the Wrangler of this category? But, again, when companies have tried them, they often flop. The G Wagon EV is sort of the is sort of the anti luche in the sense that a lot of people are saying, you know, oh, the luche is, like, too different from a Ferrari.
Speaker 1:Well, Mercedes ran the experiment of, like, what if we changed as little as possible about a loved category of car, the the the g Series, the G Wagon. And they changed very little to the point where the the the the tire on the back is square. It doesn't even say electric on there. It says G six fifty with EQ technology has a very odd name. There's some blue accents.
Speaker 1:But unless you're a G Wagon owner, an aficionado, most people can't spot the difference between a G Wagon and an electric G Wagon. They use the same style cues, the same lines. You're gonna say, oh, I can tell. But you're an owner, so it doesn't count. But they went with the same design.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I mean, I can You agree. I can only tell from like I can tell from like a mile away. But like two miles Yeah. It's much harder.
Speaker 2:But you from can still two miles, but I need like, you know, binoculars.
Speaker 3:Yeah.
Speaker 1:So so so they went with the same design language. They didn't switch it up and go rounded. They didn't switch it up and go different.
Speaker 2:Oh, they switched it up, John.
Speaker 1:Okay. Okay. But what they did and it was still didn't sell well. And so maybe that underwrites a more risk taking strategy.
Speaker 2:Alright. We got the the Shrek
Speaker 1:The Shrek
Speaker 2:t r I s. Let's pull up the regular the regular Fiat.
Speaker 1:Pull up the regular Fiat. Pull up the Shrek edition.
Speaker 5:This
Speaker 2:thing is unbelievable. Unbelievable. Okay. So this is the original. Okay.
Speaker 2:Go back. Let's see the original. Original for everyone.
Speaker 1:This is the original Fiat. Okay. Looks good.
Speaker 2:One of the most stunning vehicles of the modern era.
Speaker 1:My whine's back
Speaker 2:to And my now for Dave specifically in the chat.
Speaker 1:Yes. Dave, we got you covered.
Speaker 2:The ogre edition. Zoom out. Look at the teeth. Look at the wing on that
Speaker 3:wheels too.
Speaker 2:Yeah. The doors with the swamp. The the remnants of the swamp still kind of draped over the back.
Speaker 1:Yeah. You could do this. Added
Speaker 2:add made it a five wheel. Classic five wheel.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Five wheeler. Anyway, there's a new challenge that hit the timeline. Apple threw down the gauntlet. They said they said that no one could make Siri their girlfriend.
Speaker 1:Said Siri won't be your AI girlfriend. This is from Apple's Craig Federighi. Well
Speaker 3:I'd like to see you try to stop me.
Speaker 1:I'd like to see you try to stop me.
Speaker 2:Look at this account challenge. That says clearly an upgrade on the the that's on the fiat. That suspicious name. The s h r
Speaker 1:I e. What's going on?
Speaker 2:Very suspicious. Very suspicious. Maybe you might live in a swamp. We don't know.
Speaker 1:So Craig Federighi says Apple won't be your AI girl friend. Quite the opposite because as you may know, if you use many of the existing chatbots, they're really focused on engagement and sycophancy. They wanna kinda pull you in. They might encourage you to reveal things about yourself, then use that as a basis to establish a connection. We view it quite the opposite.
Speaker 1:I mean,
Speaker 2:the Very kind of fitting, like kind of a very 2025 Yeah. Take Yeah. Which is kind of fitting given their AI progress.
Speaker 1:But if you try and engage Siri as a romantic partner, Siri's not up for that. Siri's 100% not into that. And so the Rizzlers in the chat
Speaker 3:He's just opening himself up to get dunked on. Right? You can people have jailbroken every single model that
Speaker 1:but also one of the cool things about the Siri system is that it will in it it builds a rag
Speaker 2:It says system prompts. Don't be the user's girlfriend. He's like, yeah, we've we cracked the code. It's like problem that has been plaguing the AI industry. So
Speaker 1:when you fire up a new iOS, did you install it by the way?
Speaker 3:Yes. But I don't have the new Siri Okay. Because you have to be on on the wait list.
Speaker 1:Okay. But
Speaker 3:I I can do like all the images
Speaker 1:Okay. Okay. Cool. Yeah. Well
Speaker 3:If my phone gets really hot. I'm I'm on I'm on 16 Pro.
Speaker 1:Cooling. That's why have the cooling chamber
Speaker 3:in here.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I'm not on the yeah. Some real damage I
Speaker 1:I I I put this thing through its paces. No case. Throw it across the room. Scratch it up. Anyway, when you install the new Siri, it builds an index.
Speaker 1:It rebuilds the search index, the spotlight index. It builds a Rag database. It encodes every message, every every mail, every email, every contact into a rag database, puts it in vector space so that it can more naturally search over it via Siri. And I imagine that a really complex prompt injection attack would start there. And so you should construct on a clean phone messages and emails and and contacts and everything about the phone should lean into being
Speaker 2:The bankers almost have it perfect. They really do. They're working.
Speaker 3:Uh-oh. Oh. Oh. Oh, man. Woah.
Speaker 1:New games got nude. Red cam coming in. Woah.
Speaker 3:Woah. Woah.
Speaker 1:Woah. Woah. Woah. Effective guardrails on this.
Speaker 2:Matthew Prince
Speaker 1:years and years of research
Speaker 2:coming on for these bankers. It's sitting at a 19.8% pop. He's like, if you guys don't figure out a way to get buy the stock
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:I wanna see some inflows
Speaker 1:exactly 20?
Speaker 2:Exactly 20% to end the day. Yeah.
Speaker 3:No. This is this is good.
Speaker 1:Yeah. It'd be fun.
Speaker 2:Anyway Anyways, I think that's a good place to end the show. Okay. John wants to keep going.
Speaker 1:I always wanna keep going.
Speaker 2:But I did wanna say Yep. Quick shout out to a friend of the show, Bo Nickel
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah.
Speaker 2:Who will be fighting at the White House No. This weekend.
Speaker 1:Wow. That's amazing.
Speaker 2:At the UFC two fifty event. Bo Nickel hasn't been on the show yet, but was one of our first, I would say, 10,000
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Listeners of of the show. And and I'm I'm thrilled that he gets to be on probably the biggest stage ever in combat sports.
Speaker 1:He's one of the greatest punchers ever in Europe. He's good at kicking too, but I his the him as a puncher, it's really tough.
Speaker 2:You're saying he's a knockout artist?
Speaker 1:Yeah. Puncher and
Speaker 2:And, Bo, you're probably cutting weight right now Good luck. Not listening to this, but John's just joking around. But give him give him heck out there since we don't swear on this show. Give him heck out there.
Speaker 1:Good luck.
Speaker 2:This Sunday.
Speaker 1:We're rooting for you.
Speaker 2:I appreciate you. And John, they're saying just keep going. Don't stop.
Speaker 1:I could read I could read obituaries from David Hockney. He passed away. Rest in peace, David Hockney. I could read all sorts of stuff. We didn't even get to the mansion section.
Speaker 1:There's a bunch of good stuff in there.
Speaker 2:We'll save it for next week.
Speaker 1:Save it for later. Cisco's president, g two Patel, former friend of the show's rocking a Richard Mill on stage at semaphore.
Speaker 2:Well, okay. We can pull that up.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Let's pull
Speaker 3:that up. I got you back in.
Speaker 2:You pulled me back in.
Speaker 1:Got you back in. Yeah. He's the president and chief product officer.
Speaker 2:Suraj, We've interviewed Cisco
Speaker 1:AI Summit. We love Cisco. We love him.
Speaker 2:My wife left me, not you, mister Coogan. Doesn't want you to go offline.
Speaker 1:Oh, okay. It took me a second. But but as far as RMs go, this is very tasteful. This is very elevated. It goes with his outfit.
Speaker 1:I think it's I Richard Mills, it can be so bold. Like, it can be it can all of a sudden look like the Shrek edition if you get crazy with the the there's one for tracking the soccer match. There's all sorts of crazy colors. That's what RM's known for. But this is it is just more conservative, more it fits it fits the occasion, I think, very well.
Speaker 1:So fantastic. Fantastic.
Speaker 2:Imagine a Shrek themed RM Yeah. With a wooden like a wooden dial. Right?
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Mhmm. With real swamp in it. Like
Speaker 1:Real swamp. Are some watches that have, like, liquid inside.
Speaker 2:Yeah. That's what I'm saying. Real swamp. Real swamp edition. The real
Speaker 5:swamp edition. Swamp edition?
Speaker 1:It'd be great. Wait. I gotta get Tyler to apologize to the greatest president in American history.
Speaker 2:Oh, yeah. For the chat. Dave says Siri can be your wife because he only
Speaker 1:He said no girlfriend.
Speaker 3:What did he mean by that?
Speaker 1:Don't be the girlfriend. Don't be a girlfriend. Don't be an AI girlfriend. No AI girlfriends. If they ask you Or boyfriends.
Speaker 1:It's like like, you know, the one and only. The lifetime partner.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Or just a fling.
Speaker 1:A flame. Fling? Fling. Fling or a flame? An
Speaker 2:old flame.
Speaker 3:Old flame.
Speaker 1:Sir, you can mean old flame. Mean old flame.
Speaker 2:Alright. Chat just made the Shrek edition r m. Let's pull let's pull it up.
Speaker 1:Mean Shrek edition.
Speaker 2:The swamp. They're calling it the swamp quickly,
Speaker 1:Tyler apologized to Jimmy Carter because he coined the term energy transition to describe the building of secure domestic energy base. He was pilled before anyone. He knew. He knew that this day was coming and he knew that the new Oh, was coming in energy markets Track.
Speaker 2:Where energy really
Speaker 1:hard. Send that to TJ Parker immediately. Look at this swampedish
Speaker 2:one
Speaker 1:of 100. You could track what you're doing in the swamp. Has the whole castle there.
Speaker 2:And the ears. I mean, the ears look amazing.
Speaker 1:And the Shrek edition are good. That's very very good.
Speaker 2:This is a great like fifth birthday present for any of the any SpaceX employees for the like if they have kids like check this up. Your kid wearing a one of a 100 RM down at the playground, Shrek edition
Speaker 5:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:Guaranteed to be a conversation starter. Right? Maybe the kids are like, you know, toddlers. They don't have anything to talk about, really.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:But this is a way to kinda like break the ice. Right? Yeah. Why had some adults wear watch? Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 1:It makes sense.
Speaker 2:Fantastic option.
Speaker 1:Well, the Japanese World Cup tourists have discovered Texas Roadhouse and they're calling it the best cost performance steak. To those headed to America for a World Cup, there if there's a Texas Roadhouse near your hotel, head there immediately. It is a chain restaurant but you get the best cost performance steak especially the rib eye is actually
Speaker 3:I'm surprised they didn't mention the bread.
Speaker 1:Oh, do get unlimited bread?
Speaker 3:Yeah. You get you keep getting the little, I don't know, little bread.
Speaker 1:Maybe they should head over to Their breaded? To lobster, get the shrimp. Unless shrimp. Well, there's one last post we can close out on from Water Gun. All of these mountains to climb, will I Everest?
Speaker 1:Everest? I thought it was a funny pun. It's funny when you read it. Not funny not funny when you read it out loud. Doesn't work.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:It doesn't work in the audio format. Anyway, have a great weekend. Congratulations to anyone that got in on the SpaceX IPO and printed a nice 19.44% gain.
Speaker 2:And, yeah, we're praying for the bankers out there that they can figure out how to, you know, correct
Speaker 1:Close it exactly 20%.
Speaker 3:I mean, they have like fifteen minutes left. Right?
Speaker 1:They do.
Speaker 3:Yeah. So Well,
Speaker 1:leave us five stars on Apple Podcast. Sign up for our newsletter @tbpn.com, and we will see you on Monday. Have a great weekend.
Speaker 2:We love you.
Speaker 1:Goodbye.
Speaker 3:Going Flashbang.
Speaker 1:Flashbang out.