CropGPT - Coffee

The weekly report on the global Coffee market for week 19. Brought to you by CropGPT

Show Notes

Global Coffee Market Summary
  • Vietnam has recorded a 15.8% year-on-year rise in coffee exports from January to April 2026, reaching 810,000 metric tons. Production for 2025/26 is forecast to grow 6%, marking a four-year peak, with full-year export projections around 24,600,000 bags. Domestic prices in the Central Highlands rose by VND 1,000 to VND 100,100 per kilogram, tracking upward movements on the London Robusta Exchange. Despite its dominant position in Robusta volumes, Vietnam continues to face a quality and value gap relative to international benchmarks.
  • Brazil's 2026/27 crop is forecast at 75,300,000 to 75,900,000 bags, a potential record. The incoming harvest is expected to push the global coffee surplus from 1,800,000 bags in 2025 to approximately 10,000,000 bags in 2026, a substantial shift in the supply balance. A stronger Brazilian real may provide some short-term support to internal prices and influence export timing strategies, but the broader directional pressure from expanded supply is clearly bearish for global benchmarks.
  • In Ivory Coast, field trials of six new Robusta varieties, developed through collaboration between the Nestle Institute of Agricultural Sciences and CNRA, have demonstrated yield improvements of up to 86% alongside gains in drought resistance and bean quality. These results remain at the trial stage and have not yet influenced commercial Robusta supply chains.
  • Colombia posted a 26% decline in washed Arabica production during the first seven months of the 2025/26 season, tightening global Arabica availability and supporting price underpinning for that segment. The shortfall is amplifying concerns about near-term supply adequacy, particularly given simultaneous logistical pressures arising from geopolitical tensions.
  • Ethiopia's coffee exporters are under margin pressure as global Arabica prices decline against a backdrop of elevated local procurement costs. The government's export revenue targets are increasingly difficult to meet under current conditions, with EU deforestation compliance requirements adding a further cost layer to the sector.

What is CropGPT - Coffee?

Coffee - Production, Pricing and Politics. Keep updated on the latest coffee news.

Speaker 1:

Welcome to the weekly summary of the global coffee market for 05/10/2026. For more information on any aspect of this report, please visit the CropGPT website for far more detailed reporting and analysis. Vietnamese coffee markets have experienced a rise in prices, particularly in the Central Highlands, where prices increased by Vietnamese dong 1,000 to hui dong $100,100 per kilogram. Notably, Doc Nong saw prices reach Vietnamese dong 87,300 per kilogram. These changes are in sync with upward movements on the London Robusta Exchange.

Speaker 1:

Vietnam maintains its position as the world's dominant Robusta producer and exporter. Yet the country still lags behind in quality and value compared to international standards. Looking ahead, projections for the twenty twenty five-twenty twenty six crop year estimate robust to exports at around 24,600,000 bags. Moreover, coffee exports from January to April 2026 climbed by 15.8% year on year, reaching eight and ten thousand metric tons, underscoring Vietnam's strong export trajectory. Production forecasts suggest a 6% increase for the twenty twenty five, twenty twenty six cycle, marking a four year peak and reinforcing Vietnam's leadership in the robusta market.

Speaker 1:

Turning to Brazil, the onset of the new coffee harvest season is expected to exert downward pressure on global markets due to a forecasted rise in export supplies. The market adapts to the promising yield despite underpinning factors like low global coffee inventories. Projections for Brazil's twenty twenty six-twenty twenty seven crop range from an impressive 75,300,000 to 75,900,000 bags, potentially setting a record. Such an output surge is likely to expand the global coffee surplus to 10,000,000 bags in 2026, a stark increase from 1,800,000 bags in 2025. Analysts highlight that a strong Brazilian real might temporarily support internal prices amid the larger harvest outlook by impacting export strategies.

Speaker 1:

In Ivory Coast, recent studies have introduced a blend of six Robista varieties that could enhance yields by up to 86%. These developments, driven by collaboration between the Nestle Institute of Agricultural Sciences and the CNRA have shown promising outcomes in terms of yield, drought resistance, and bean quality. However, these advances remain in the trial stage and have yet to influence global robusta supply chains or market conditions significantly. Colombia faces a significant downturn, with washed Arabica production dropping by 26% in the first seven months of the twenty twenty five- twenty twenty six season. Such a decline is tightening global Arabica availability, sparking concerns about meeting market demands.

Speaker 1:

The dip in Colombia's production and exports could underpin global Arabica prices, especially against the backdrop of the Brazilian surplus and the logistical challenges stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions. Ethiopia's coffee sector is currently challenged by a steep decline in global Arabica prices, exerting margin pressures on local exporters who purchase stocks at elevated prices. The government's ambitious export revenue targets are becoming increasingly challenging to achieve under these conditions. Additionally, new regulatory measures like the European Union's deforestation policy are adding costs that may further impact the sector's profitability. As for Indonesia, while specific supply figures are not detailed, its role as a major robusta producer remains unaltered.

Speaker 1:

Alongside countries like Vietnam, Uganda, and Brazil, Indonesia's production and export capabilities will primarily influence its market dynamics, balancing competitive pricing and quality amidst shifting global demand. Remember, our CropGPT site contains far more details and reports about the coffee market, including crop health reports, 20 of weather data, and even pricing data and earning call analysis. This podcast is just a few selected highlights for the week.