Catch up with summaries from an average of 50 new geopolitical events daily. Subscribe to better understand geopolitical risks.
Cedric: Welcome to the Geopolitical
Report Daily for February 16, 2025.
Complete reports with casualty
information, interactive web maps, and
our IntelHub dashboard are available with
a Geopolitical Report Pro subscription.
We collected and mapped 59 events
on Saturday, including a new
assessment of the global leader
of the Islamic State, and M23 and
Uganda making demands in the DRC.
It was a busy day, so let's get started.
Political Conflict
"Democratic Republic of Congo
The M23 rebel group has issued a
demand for the immediate withdrawal of
Burundian forces from DR Congo territory,
particularly from areas including
Nkomo, Nyangezi, and the Ruzizi Plain.
This comes after M23 took control
of Kavumu Military Airport on
February 14, claiming the move was
to prevent its use as a base for
attacks against civilians by FARDC
(Congolese armed forces) and its allies.
The rebel group accuses the Burundian
forces of contributing to ethnic
cleansing and humanitarian crises
in the DRC while also claiming that
FARDC coalition forces retreated from
Bukavu after engaging in looting."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Uganda's
military chief, has given armed
forces in Bunia, DR Congo, 24 hours to
surrender their weapons or face attack.
While Uganda already conducts joint
operations with DR Congo against the
ADF terrorist group, this ultimatum
suggests broader military ambitions.
The situation is complicated by Muhoozi's
support for the M23 rebels, who recently
captured key areas in South Kivu, and
his close ties to Rwanda's President
Kagame, who is accused of backing M23."
"Germany
In an interview with NBC News at the
Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky warned
that Ukraine had limited chances
of surviving Russia's invasion
without US military support."
"Germany
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met
with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho
Tae-yul at the Munich Security Conference.
They discussed two main concerns:
China's actions in the South China
Sea and North Korea's aggression.
Rubio reaffirmed the US commitment
to South Korea's defense and
emphasized strengthening economic
cooperation in areas like shipbuilding,
semiconductors, and energy.
He also reiterated the US goal of
complete North Korean denuclearization
while remaining open to dialogue."
"Germany
At the Munich Security Conference,
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy called
for creating ""armed forces of Europe""
amid concerns about declining U.S.
support.
This comes as Trump's administration
signals plans to negotiate
with Putin over Ukraine, likely
excluding European partners."
"West Bank
As part of a prisoner exchange, Israel
has begun releasing 369 Palestinian
prisoners and detainees from Ofer Prison
in the West Bank following Hamas's release
of three Israeli hostages (Iair Horn,
Sagui Dekel-Chen, and Sasha Troufanov).
The first bus of released Palestinians
has departed from the facility."
Terrorism
"Afghanistan
A grenade attack at a mosque in Aybak,
Samangan province, injured four worshipers
during Friday prayers on February 14.
Two suspects were arrested by local
authorities, with the attack reportedly
stemming from personal grievances."
"Democratic Republic of Congo
Approximately 70 beheaded bodies
were found in a Kasanga church,
believed to be hostages killed by
the Allied Defense Forces (ADF).
Details of the massacre
were not reported."
"Gaza Strip
Three Israeli hostages - Sagui
Dekel-Chen, Sasha Troufanov, and
Iair Horn - have been freed after
498 days in Hamas captivity in Gaza.
They were escorted by IDF troops to a
military facility near Re'im for medical
evaluations and family reunions."
"India
A CoBRA (CRPF) constable, Arun Kumar
Yadav, was injured by a Maoist-planted
IED blast during a patrol operation in
Bijapur district on February 14, 2025.
He was evacuated and is now
in stable condition at Raipur
for advanced treatment."
"India
Manipur Police arrested nine militants
from different groups (KCP-PWG,
KCP-Noyon, and UNLF-Pambei) who were
involved in extortion and kidnapping
activities across the state.
Four members of KCP-PWG were caught
in Imphal East for extorting money
from government officials and
businesses, while four KCP-Noyon
members were arrested in Thoubal
district for kidnapping and extortion.
One UNLF-Pambei member was
apprehended in Imphal East with a .32
pistol, allegedly involved in
extortion and arms transportation."
"India
An active member of the UNLF-Pambei
group, Okram Aboy Meitei, was arrested
by Manipur's Anti-Extortion Cell
and City Police for extortion and
illegal arms trafficking in Imphal.
The arrest occurred during a
special operation near Tera Makhong,
where authorities seized a .32
pistol, ammunition, a mobile phone,
and incriminating documents."
"Nigeria
A violent clash between two terrorist
groups - Boko Haram's JAS faction
and ISWAP - occurred in Borno
State, Nigeria, on February 14.
JAS fighters attacked ISWAP camps in
Toumbun Gini and Toumbun Ali, resulting
in at least 31 ISWAP casualties,
including several commanders.
After looting weapons and equipment,
JAS forces retreated, but intelligence
suggests they are regrouping for
additional attacks on ISWAP positions
in Gemu and Mallam Karamti."
"Nigeria
A Catholic priest, Rev.
Father Livinus Maurice, and two
others were kidnapped on Wednesday,
February 12, along the Elele-Isiokpo
Road in Rivers State, Nigeria.
The incident occurred while the priest
was returning from a hospital visit.
The Catholic Diocese of Port
Harcourt has reported the matter
to security agencies and called for
prayers for their safe release."
"South Sudan
Four SSPDF soldiers were killed and three
wounded in multiple attacks by armed
youth in Nasir County, Upper Nile State.
The attacks began on Valentine's Day
when soldiers collecting firewood were
ambushed, with two more attacks following.
SSPDF spokesperson Major General
Koang accused the opposition group
SPLA-IO of inciting the violence."
"Syria
A brief clash occurred in Latakia
city when four armed individuals
in a vehicle attacked the Military
Operations Administration with
grenades at the traffic building in
the Al-Sheikh Daher neighborhood.
Though security forces pursued
the attackers' vehicle, they
were unable to catch them.
The incident resulted in
no reported casualties."
"Syria
The former director of the Syrian
News Agency, Saleh Ibrahim, was
released after being held captive for
approximately one week in Damascus.
He was initially kidnapped by
masked individuals from the
Bab Masla area on February 10."
"Syria
An assassination attempt on a Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF) General Affairs
official took place in Deir Ezzor.
While the official survived the
attack, their companion was wounded
when ISIS cells ambushed their
vehicle in Jazara Al-Bohamid Town,
located in western Deir Ezzor."
"Syria
The Syrian authorities captured
Abu Al-Harith Al-Iraqi, a
high-ranking ISIS commander, as
reported by SANA news agency.
Al-Iraqi served in significant roles
within ISIS's Iraq province, managing
foreign fighters and logistics operations.
He was implicated in multiple
attacks, including the assassination
of HTS military leader Abu Maria
Al-Qahtani, and was connected to
a foiled attack plot against the
Sayyidah Zainab shrine near Damascus.
The location of the
arrest was not specified."
"Thailand
Two bombing attacks occurred in
Narathiwat province, Thailand.
In the first incident, an IED hidden
in a motorcycle sidecar exploded near
a defense volunteer office, injuring
seven people (3 volunteers, four
civilians) and damaging property.
The bomb was planted by two men
who fled on another motorcycle
and detonated it remotely.
A second attack involved a
pipe bomb thrown at a police
outpost near a childcare center,
injuring one police officer.
No one at the child
care center was harmed."
Military Conflict
"Gaza Strip
The IDF conducted a warning drone
strike in central Gaza after
several vehicles attempted to travel
north using an unauthorized route.
Under the ceasefire agreement,
northbound traffic is only allowed
on the Salah a-Din road, where
vehicles must undergo inspection.
The vehicles turned back south
following the warning strike."
"Iraq
Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and US
CENTCOM conducted a joint airstrike
near Rawa, Iraq, on Wednesday that
killed five ISIS terrorists and
destroyed their weapons cache, including
explosive belts and ammunition.
The operation, located about
320km northwest of Baghdad, was
part of ongoing counterterrorism
efforts with Coalition support."
"Lebanon
The IDF has confirmed conducting an
airstrike in southern Lebanon targeting
a key member of Hezbollah's Unit
127 (aerial forces), who allegedly
violated the ceasefire by launching
surveillance drones into Israel.
The unit is known for operating both
explosive and surveillance drones.
Lebanese media reported that two
people were killed in the strike."
"Myanmar
The Myanmar military junta conducted
extensive airstrikes on February 12-13,
2025, forcing over 5,000 residents
to evacuate from villages along the
Kale-Gangaw road in Sagaing Region.
The attacks, carried out by both jet
fighters and Y-12 utility aircraft,
targeted at least 10 villages
following clashes between junta and
resistance forces near Kmbarni Bridge.
The Y-12 aircraft reportedly dropped
30-50 small bombs per attack round,
repeatedly reloading at Kale Airport.
Displaced villagers have sought shelter
in nearby forests but must avoid
making cooking fires, as the junta
targets areas where smoke is visible.
The military has also been
airlifting troops to the conflict
zone, while the total number
of casualties remains unknown."
"Nigeria
Police and local vigilantes conducted
a successful rescue operation in
Kebbi State, Nigeria, resulting in the
rescue of 60-year-old Umaru Bawa, who
was kidnapped from Gobiraje Village.
During a gun battle in Tundufai
Forest, four suspected kidnappers were
killed, one was captured and wounded,
and others escaped with injuries.
The operation also recovered
â¦3 million in ransom money that
the victim's family had paid."
"Pakistan
Four Pakistani soldiers were
martyred, and 15 terrorists
were killed in two intelligence
operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The first operation in Dera Ismail Khan
eliminated nine terrorists, including
four ringleaders, while the second
in Miranshah killed six terrorists
but resulted in the deaths of Lt.
Muhammad Hassaan Arshaf
and three soldiers."
"Somalia
Puntland's Counterterrorism Task Force
conducted a successful airstrike on
Friday night, destroying an Islamic
State explosives factory in the Shebaab
Al-Miskaat mountains of the Bari region.
The facility, which manufactured
explosives and vehicle parts, was
completely destroyed, and Islamic State
members were eliminated, though the
exact casualty count wasn't disclosed."
"Sudan
Sudan's military has gained control of key
areas in Khartoum from the RSF, including
a major bridge, though RSF still holds the
presidential palace and parts of Darfur."
"Syria
Violent clashes near Teshreen
dam in eastern Aleppo resulted
in casualties on both sides: two
National Army members killed and
two injured, with their military
bulldozer destroyed by SDF forces.
In return, two SDF members were wounded by
""National Army"" and Turkish airstrikes.
SDF rocket attacks on Al-Khafsah
village injured three civilians.
Fighting continues between
both sides in the area."
"Syria
A violent confrontation broke out
in the Al-Mahattah neighborhood of
Ras Al-Ain city between military
police and National Army members,
resulting in three casualties.
The clash occurred when military
police discovered and surrounded
National Army members attempting to
desert and return to their hometown.
During the firefight, which involved
heavy machine guns and shells,
nearby civilian homes caught fire,
causing panic among local residents."
"Syria
A Turkish-backed militant was killed,
and three others were wounded when
SDF forces conducted a drone strike
near Teshrin Dam in eastern Aleppo.
In response, Turkish forces carried
out multiple attacks, including
airstrikes on villages near
Kobani and artillery shelling in
both Kobani and Tel Abyad areas.
No casualties were reported
from the Turkish attacks."
"Syria
Turkish military conducted multiple
attacks in northeastern Syria,
targeting several villages near
Ain Al-Arab (Kobane) and Tel Abyad.
The operations included both
airstrikes from fighter jets and
artillery shelling from ground forces.
While multiple locations were hit,
including Zor Maghar, Shiyokh Tahtany,
Al-Taina, Al-Ghasaq, and Kobralak
villages, as well as positions in
the Sarrin mountains, no casualties
were reported from these attacks."
"Syria
A Turkish military drone conducted
an attack on an Essential Protection
Forces vehicle in Al-Mahmoudli,
located in western Al-Raqqah.
The strike resulted in one fatality and
two injuries among the force's members."
"Taiwan
The Taiwanese defense ministry reported
Chinese military activity near Taiwan,
including eight aircraft and five
vessels detected over a 24-hour period.
Four Chinese aircraft crossed the
Taiwan Strait's median line and
entered Taiwan's southwestern ADIZ.
Taiwan responded by deploying aircraft,
naval ships, and coastal missile
systems to monitor the situation."
"Ukraine
Russian forces launched attacks
across the Kherson region, killing
one person and injuring 10 others.
The shelling targeted over 35 settlements,
including Kherson city, as reported
by regional head Oleksandr Prokudin.
The attacks damaged residential and
social infrastructure, including
apartment buildings, private
homes, agricultural machinery,
storage facilities, and vehicles.
The single fatality occurred in
Zolota Balka from a drone strike."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted
33 Russian Shahed attack drones out
of 70 launched during an overnight
assault on February 14-15, 2025.
The drones were launched from
multiple Russian locations,
including occupied Crimea.
The interceptions occurred across
six Ukrainian regions: Mykolaiv,
Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk,
Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk.
Additionally, 37 Russian decoy
drones were lost from tracking
without causing any damage."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian forces claimed to have
killed or wounded 1,180 Russian
soldiers over the past day.
Over 330 pieces of military equipment
were destroyed in the fighting."
"Ukraine
Ukrainian border guards in the Sumy
region successfully destroyed five Russian
fiber-optic FPV drones using small arms.
The State Border Guard Service
of Ukraine identifies these
drones as a new and increasingly
common threat on the battlefield.
Additionally, Ukrainian forces from the
Hart border brigade conducted artillery
strikes against Russian positions
near Vovchansk, destroying dugouts,
trenches, and a UAV launch site."
"Ukraine
Russian forces launched 468 attacks on 10
towns in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region on
February 14, including 279 drone strikes,
five airstrikes on Huliaipole, and 10
MLRS attacks on Kamianske and Novodarivka.
The attacks targeted multiple settlements,
including Lysohirka, Malokaterynivka,
and others, resulting in 2 deaths and
one injury in the Polohy district, where
a Russian drone also hit a police car."
"Ukraine
Russian shelling in Ukraine's
Donetsk region damaged multiple
infrastructure targets, including
houses, power lines, a gas pipeline,
and an agricultural facility.
In Kostiantynivka, 13 private homes and
various structures were hit, while Siversk
saw damage to eight residential buildings.
One person was injured in Novodmytrivka."
Civil Unrest
"Georgia
Protesters gathered in Tbilisi,
Georgia, on February 15, marching
from the Mtkvari riverbank to Freedom
Square and the parliament building.
The demonstration, reminiscent
of November's protests, featured
minimal police presence and included
patriotic chants, flags, and music.
Demonstrators are demanding new
elections and the release of detained
protesters, including Mzia Amaglobeli,
who is currently hospitalized
following a month-long hunger strike."
"Germany
German climate activists, led by Fridays
for Future, organized nationwide protests
on Friday, just days before the country's
federal elections on February 23.
Over 100,000 demonstrators across
150 locations expressed concern that
climate issues have been overshadowed
by immigration and economic debates.
The protests come amid rising support
for the far-right AfD party, which
polls show at 20% and in second place.
The AfD has notably opposed green
policies and climate action, adding
urgency to the demonstrators' message
that climate concerns deserve more
attention in the electoral discourse."
"Iran
A 19-year-old student, Amir Mohammad
Khaleghi, was murdered near Tehran
University's dormitory, sparking
protests and outrage among students
demanding better campus security.
Iranian authorities have
arrested several suspects and are
continuing their investigation.
The incident led to student demonstrations
and the resignation of the university's
dormitory management head and prompted
a high-level government response,
including orders for urgent investigation
from Iran's First Vice President."
"Israel
During a march to the prime
minister's residence in Jerusalem,
police arrested one protester at a
demonstration supporting hostage deals.
In addition, approximately 1,000
people gathered in Tel Aviv for a
weekly protest demanding a hostage
deal and criticizing the government.
The demonstration took place
outside IDF headquarters while
PM Netanyahu held consultations
about the ceasefire agreement."
"Lebanon
Lebanese authorities have arrested
over 25 people following an attack
on a UN convoy that injured two
peacekeepers during protests by Hezbollah
supporters near Beirut's airport.
Interior Minister Ahmad al-Hajjar
clarified that while these arrests
have been made, investigations
are ongoing to determine who was
actually responsible for the attack.
The government has pledged to
strengthen security measures
in response to the incident."
"Lebanon
Tensions escalated in Lebanon after the
army used tear gas against Hezbollah
supporters protesting near Beirut airport.
The protests were sparked by
Lebanon blocking an Iranian flight
following Israeli accusations that
Iran was using civilian aircraft
to smuggle cash to Hezbollah."
"Lebanon
Lebanese President Aoun has promised
to punish those responsible for
attacking a UN peacekeeping convoy
that injured UNIFIL's outgoing deputy
commander, Chok Bahadur Dhakal.
The incident occurred during protests
by Hezbollah supporters, who were
demonstrating against a ban on
Iranian planes landing in Beirut.
The attack involved setting fire
to a UN vehicle, and President Aoun
emphasized that security forces
would take firm action against those
threatening stability and civil peace."
"Serbia
Serbian protesters gathered in Kragujevac
ahead of planned mass demonstrations, part
of ongoing nationwide protests that began
after a fatal railway station collapse
in November that killed 15 people.
The movement, led by students and
joined by various professional groups,
expressed dissatisfaction with President
VuÄiÄ's government, which faces
accusations of voter bribery, media
suppression, and links to organized crime
â allegations the government denies."
"Serbia
Thousands of Serbian students
protested in Kragujevac on Saturday
against the government following a
deadly November railway accident that
killed 15 people at Novi Sad station.
The demonstration, Serbia's largest
protest movement in years, challenges
President Vucic's leadership
and demands transparency about
the disaster, justice for those
responsible, and education reforms.
Joined by teachers and workers, protesters
staged a 15-hour symbolic blockade.
Despite three minister
resignations and 13"
"Turkey
Turkey's Interior Ministry dismissed
Kurdish mayor Abdullah Zeydan
of Van, replacing him with a
state trustee after he received a
three-year and eight-month prison
sentence for terror-related charges.
The dismissal sparked protests, with
supporters staging sit-ins met by police
using tear gas and plastic bullets.
Zeydan, who won the March elections
with 55% of votes, has faced previous
challenges - he was initially removed
and replaced with the AKP runner-up but
later reinstated after his party's appeal.
The DEM Party condemned both the
court's decision as unlawful and
the police response to protesters."
"Turkey
Turkish authorities detained 103
people across 39 provinces for
alleged ties to the Gülen movement,
which Turkey designated as a
terrorist organization in 2016.
The suspects face accusations
of involvement in universities,
military activities, and using
secret communication methods."
"United Kingdom
Tens of thousands of pro-Palestine
protesters marched in London from
Whitehall to the US embassy, responding
to US President Donald Trump's
proposal for US control of Gaza.
The protest occurred as Hamas
released three Israeli hostages
under a fragile ceasefire deal.
Demonstrators carried signs opposing
Trump's plan, with former Labour leader
Jeremy Corbyn speaking against it.
A counter-protest by Stop The Hate
was held along the route, with
police keeping the groups separated."
Weapons
"India
The Indian Army and Jammu & Kashmir
Police conducted a joint search
operation in Bandi Mohalla, Kupwara
district, on February 14, 2025.
Based on specific intelligence
inputs, the operation led to the
recovery of two pistols, four
pistol magazines, and ammunition."
Accidents
"Brazil
A private plane crash in Quadra,
Brazil (about 160km from São Paulo)
resulted in two fatalities on Saturday.
The aircraft crashed into vegetation,
and firefighters discovered two
unidentified charred bodies."
"Libya
A boat carrying 63 migrants sank
off Libya's western coast near
Zawiya, resulting in the deaths of
at least 16 Pakistani nationals.
While 37 people were
rescued, 10 remain missing."
"Syria
Multiple landmine incidents in
Syria resulted in four deaths and
three injuries across three regions.
Three civilians died in explosions in
the Tuwainan area (Homs countryside),
while in the Al-Ratimy area (Deir
Ezzor countryside), one young man was
killed, and two others were injured.
Additionally, one young man was
wounded by a landmine in Al-Nabitiya
Village (Hama countryside)."
"Syria
A tragic incident in Syria's Deir
Ezzor region resulted in one child's
death from shrapnel when a war
remnant exploded in Al-Khareeta Town.
In a separate incident near Al-Bokamal
City, two women were seriously injured
by another explosive war remnant
and were hospitalized for treatment.
Both incidents occurred in areas
under Damascus government control."
"United States
A Cessna 208 Caravan crashed in Flagler
County, Florida, on Friday evening.
The 10-seater aircraft, leased from
Eagle Air Transport, departed from
Sebastian Airport and lost contact with
Palatka Municipal Airport around 7:30 PM.
The wreckage was found after midnight
in a dense wooded area near State
Road 11 and the Volusia County line.
Sheriff Rick Staly reported the
plane was ""unrecognizable"" and
believes only the pilot was aboard.
The pilot's identity remains
unconfirmed, and the FAA and
NTSB will investigate the crash."
Other Events
"Somalia
Intelligence agencies believe Abdul Qadir
Mumin, leader of IS-Somalia, has become
the global head of Islamic State under
the alias Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi.
Born in Puntland and formerly
active in the UK, Mumin joined IS
in 2015 after leaving al-Shabaab.
His rise marks a shift from IS's
traditional Iraq/Syria power base.
Under his leadership, IS-Somalia
has become a crucial financial hub,
funding affiliates across Africa and
Asia through extortion and smuggling."
"Thanks for joining us for the February
16, 2025 Geopolitical Report Daily.
As a reminder, complete reports with
casualty information, interactive web
maps, analysis, and our IntelHub dashboard
are available with a Geopolitical
Report Pro subscription, which you
can try with a seven-day-free-trial
at geopolitical.report.
dont forget to tune in again
tomorrow for the most recent
events from around the world.