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- Greg Johnson, TotalGrainMarketing.com
- USDA's Federal Government Shutdown Plan
- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc
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- USDA's Federal Government Shutdown Plan
- Drew Lerner, WorldWeather.cc
Creators and Guests
What is Closing Market Report?
Celebrating 40 Years | 10,000 Episodes
Established 1985
The Closing Market Report airs weekdays at 2:06pm central on WILL AM580, Urbana. University of Illinois Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason hosts the program. Each day he asks commodity analysts about the trade in Chicago, delves deep into the global growing regions weather, and talks with ag economists, entomologists, agronomists, and others involved in agriculture at the farm and industry level.
website: willag.org
twitter: @commodityweek
From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the October 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson from TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com.
Todd Gleason:I'll detail for you how the government shutdown, the federal government shutdown will impact USDA and its agencies. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast with Drew at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. This public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like at willa.org. And there you can also find a way to make a donation in support of the ag programming. That's at willgive.org or willlag.org.
Todd Gleason:Either website, look for the donate button at the top of the page and thank you.
announce:Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason:Greg Johnson from TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com now joins us to talk about the marketplace. Hi, Greg. Thanks for being with us. First, let's start with yesterday's USDA report.
Todd Gleason:You remember those, I think. I was out of the office, working near Hoopston with a farmer there helping out on the farm, harvesting some soybeans, and didn't really get a chance to hear what the trade thought about that. I did see that it ended up putting a couple 100,000,000 more bushels on the corn ending stocks. What happened?
Greg Johnson:Yeah. The the number that came out, was raised from what the traders were thinking. The traders thought it would be about 1,300,000,000.0 bushel ending stocks number similar to last year. The government came out with 1.53, almost 200,000,000 bushels higher than the average trade guess. That's still lower than where we were for last year's crop at this point.
Greg Johnson:They thought last year's crop ending stocks number was 1.7. So 1.5 is less than 1.7, but it's still higher than what we thought, than what the trade thought at 1.3. So the bigger stocks number was, responsible for the weakness in corn yesterday. As far as beans are concerned, this ending stocks number came in a little bit actually lower than what the trade was thinking. Trade was thinking three twenty three, and, the ending stocks number was 316,000,000 bushels.
Greg Johnson:So, that's a little friendly, but without the the demand from China, think the trade feels like we can get by with a little bit less. So that that contributed to the weakness yesterday in soybeans as well. And then to throw the last number, wheat production came out yesterday at two point oh, 1,985,000,000 bushels. Average trade guess was 1.925. So bigger than what any of the traders thought, and wheat made a new contract low yesterday.
Greg Johnson:So all three reports, the corn stocks number, the bean stocks number, and the wheat production number, all were interpreted bearishly by, the traders yesterday, and that's following through as well today.
Todd Gleason:Interpreted bearishly by the traders. However, not so much different than what USDA had reported in its September figures for the, incoming ending stocks or those that will be on hand for this, marketing year we have now entered. Not very different at all for corn, down, what, 14,000,000 bushels or something like that for soybeans for not so not particularly different for soybeans. If we were to have a USDA crop production report in October, and right now, we won't unless we have, the settlement of things in Washington DC and the federal government reopens. Those numbers would, show up as the ending stocks for this past year.
Todd Gleason:Again, not much of a change there, but the trade still thinking they're off by some, and I guess we're at the guidance of the trade down. And this was a bearish number because it was bigger than what they expected, and tells them that USDA was more correct than wrong when we went through that September figure?
Greg Johnson:I think so. I think that's right. And the USDA ending stocks number in the September crop report was 2,100,000,000 bushels. And so even if the traders are correct in thinking that the USDA needs to lower that yield at one eighty six point seven down to something like one eighty four or one eighty five, they probably will lower feed demand as well, based on the higher stocks number from, this this report yesterday. So the one offsets the other.
Greg Johnson:And so even if you lower the yield, you'll probably lower the demand, and you'll still end up with somewhere around a 2,000,000,000 bushel carryout if the government would happen to release an October supply and demand report. So it's hard to get too friendly on corn. The market feels comfortable right where it is. You know, we have rallied, $30.40 cents off of the August 12 low when that August 12 crop report came out and, the USDA issued that astounding one eighty eight eight yield on corn. We made a low of December corn that day at three ninety two.
Greg Johnson:Since then, we've rallied, up to four thirty one, and now we've given back 20¢, and we're exactly right in the middle of that, 40¢ range. We're right at four eleven December futures. So, I think the corn market feels comfortable unless we see something that that we don't know about, and that could be something like ethanol exports could pick up. It could be a much lower Iowa corn yield than what than what we are thinking right now. But the bottom line is 2,000,000,000 bushels is is plenty, it's comfortable, and I think it's just a reminder to farmers that we need to sell those rallies.
Greg Johnson:You know, when we rally up to that, the old highs, anywhere around four twenty five, four thirty, With a 2,000,000,000 bushel carryout, it's hard to expect prices to be much higher than that.
Todd Gleason:I spent the day yesterday on the farm hauling soybeans. I was working with a farmer near Hoopstedt about 10 miles to the Northwest, pretty close to the Indiana border. However, I was, really interested on the way up that I didn't see combines moving at all, and but that was fairly early in the morning, and I suspect they were waiting for soybeans in our area. But there there may have been three running in the area, which surprised me. I thought things would be moving a lot quicker than that.
Todd Gleason:Still waiting, I guess. What has your income been like? Well, not income, but what what has the the the traffic at the elevator been like the last few days?
Greg Johnson:I think we peaked out on our soybean, deliveries yesterday. I think yesterday will be our busiest day. And, from here on out we'll start to see people finish up on soybeans, a few every day. It'll still be a big heavy bean week this week, but by the weekend I think a lot of people will be done, and I think they'll be able to switch right over into corn. We've already had reports of corn down around 14% coming right out of the field, similar to the beans coming right out of the field at 9%.
Greg Johnson:So, everything's just drying too fast. There's no rain in the forecast, for the foreseeable future. And so I think farmers are just going to switch right over from beans to corn. And, I think, it's, you know, this is a bean week, next week will be a corn week, but, as far as yields are concerned, we don't know where the beans are coming from given how little rain we've had the last forty five days. Farmers are just amazed, on good ground.
Greg Johnson:Now I will say on some lighter timber soil ground and if you didn't get rain, that's a bad combination, and we are hearing bean yields in the fifties, on that kind of a ground. But on the better ground, there's a lot of bean yields in the seventies and every once in a while some in the eighties. So, we would definitely wouldn't have expected those kind of yields in East Central Illinois given the lack of rain over the last forty five days. But, and I think the other thing to remember is we are in one of the drier pockets. I think if you get to, Bloomington, McLean County, and then on west and north, they had more rain than we did this summer, and I think the yields will probably reflect that as we start to hear those yields.
Greg Johnson:So, you know, we can't trade our own backyard, unfortunately. If everybody's crop was as, you know, as poor and variable as ours, you know, the market might respond, but I just think we're in a in a pocket here, and even that pocket, so far, the the bean yields have been much better than than what we would have thought.
Todd Gleason:And I'll be headed to the farm this afternoon in Logan County near Springfield. I know that yields there, both corn and soybeans, have been very, very good, surprisingly good, I think, given the lack of rainfall at the end of the season. Nothing like here, but Logan County in that Southwest corner was on the very edge of the drought areas. I'm wondering, as you think about this for producers in the area, particularly I think for soybeans because they come across the scale, what have they been asking you mostly? And I suspect it is, what do I do with these beans now that I've got them across the scale?
Greg Johnson:Yeah. The the carries are so wide in the beans that the market is telling farmers that if you have bin storage to store the beans. Almost 80¢ cash carry in the soybean market from fall to next summer. So the market's saying store the beans. Unfortunately, if you don't have storage, the elevators are charging, you know, you know, almost the entire carry, so you're not gonna come out ahead unless the overall price of beans rallies on the board of trade.
Greg Johnson:You know, the basis will definitely improve 50¢ between now and spring, but the DP charges are probably gonna be 40 or 45¢ of that. So you're really not gonna come out ahead unless the overall futures price goes up. So, farmers are asking what to do about beans. And, you know, if you've got bins, you store them. And if you don't, you might wanna sell the beans to pay some bills and maybe hang on to the corn because with the export demand, the ethanol demand, at least you can kinda paint a possible rosier outlook for corn prices, bean prices, until we get a a deal done with China, and that doesn't sound like that's gonna happen anytime soon, I think the trade feels like we can get by with less beans than, you know, even though the the carryout's relatively tight at around 300,000,000 bushels, that the trade doesn't seem to be seem to be too worried about that until China shows back up again.
Greg Johnson:So, sell the beans, hang on to the corn, and keep in mind that, even corn rallies are gonna be limited. So, you know, be realistic when you look at the charts and and where you put your offers in at.
Todd Gleason:Thank you much. We'll talk with you again tomorrow for commodity week.
Greg Johnson:Sounds good, Todd. Thanks.
Todd Gleason:Greg Johnson is with TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com. In today's agricultural news, here's how the federal government shutdown is expected to impact the United States Department of Agriculture. The 2025 USDA shutdown contingency plan estimates about 42,000 staff or roughly half the agency's employees will be furloughed starting today. Mission critical activities like food safety inspections and lab operations will continue.
Todd Gleason:Non mandatory data collection and most research will cease. The department submitted its tentative shutdown contingency plan to the Office of Management and Budget, and it does include a reduction in force or RIF provision although there are no other details about which employees might be RIFed or permanently let go during the shutdown. The USDA plan suspends the majority of activities at the Risk Management Agency, Natural Resources Conservation Service, and NASS or the National Agricultural Statistics Service among others. The reports paused or not issued include the monthly USDA crop reduction in world and agricultural supply and demand estimates. Other activities that would stop include payment processing, regulatory work, and animal and plant pest and disease surveys.
Todd Gleason:Now during the shutdown, most employees are furloughed. This will include about 6,400 of the approximately 9,500 FSA employees. Should the shutdown last more than ten days, one Farm Service Loan Officer and one County FSA office farm program employee per center are expected to be on call. Nutrition programs may also face disruptions during a shutdown. The nation's largest food aid program or SNAP, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistant Program will continue with the Office of Management and Budget issuing reserve funding as needed.
Todd Gleason:However, the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children or WIC may face disruptions if the shutdown lasts longer than a week due to low funds. The USDA contingency plan also warns that during a shutdown, states may run out of funds to perform meat and poultry inspections under cooperative agreements with the agency. And that's a look at today's agricultural news. You're listening to the closing market report on this Wednesday afternoon. Our theme music is written performed courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason.
Todd Gleason:Don't forget to visit our website at wilag.org, willag.0rg, where you'll find the latest information from the agricultural economist, the crop scientist, and the animal scientist here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. Speaking to the crop scientist. I caught up with them recently and talked with Connor Sible. He's in crop sciences and has been studying soybeans. I asked him to tell me just a little bit about the research he's been doing.
Connor Sible:First thing we've been looking at, because there's a lot of talk about it, planting date, the value of early planting, that holds true. It doesn't win every year going the earliest, but it still holds pretty high yield levels and potentials. An advantage there as well is you could put the beans in a little earlier, maybe colder, We when wouldn't be wanna be putting in the corn. And then when the prime windows come up, we can get the corn and get it off to a good start. So we're seeing a good trade off there.
Connor Sible:So early planted soybean, a little bit behind then that is how do you manage early soybean versus traditionally planting it after the corn. We're seeing actually, like, fertilizer responses or tend to be a little better on the later planted. It's a little counterintuitive. You think early planting, higher yield, better response potential. But when you're planted late, they grow so fast, the soil can't keep up.
Connor Sible:So that's some of the fertilizer work we've been seeing on soybeans.
Todd Gleason:Is this the nitrogen work that you've been thinking about? Because I hear about that all the time, but I'm not sure that that's what you're talking about.
Connor Sible:Yep. So the nitrogen work will be doctor Giovanni Prezefontes and Doctor Emerson Navziger working on some nitrogen on soybeans inconclusive in spots. We're looking mostly at phosphorus, applications in the springtime on that.
Todd Gleason:I wanted to make sure we got that out because I knew that sometimes you hear about nitrogen work and farmers can be, oh, I should put nitrogen on soybeans. The answer is no. Not yet. But you're working on something entirely different.
Connor Sible:Correct. Phosphorus and then sulfur. And some of the sulfur comes with nitrogen, but, really, it's sulfur response that we're seeing there. Yep. Anything else before I let you go?
Connor Sible:Harvest is coming up. Seed size looks like it might be a little smaller this year. So my big thing for the farmers is walk behind those combines and make sure we're getting as much seed. Harvest loss is on my mind going into the next few weeks with the seed size. I think we're gonna have corn and beans.
Todd Gleason:Connor Sibel is a crop scientist based here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. You're listening to the closing market report on this Wednesday afternoon. You may hear Conor again on our website at wilag.org. That's willag.0rg. Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City now joins us to take a look at the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet.
Todd Gleason:Thank you, Drew, for being with us. Let's not start here because I think things are dry and, for harvest, that's okay. We'll come back to that in a minute, but rather start in South America where they are in the midst of their planting seasons. I would think that Brazilian farmers ought to be moving. Did they get a little rain, and are they still getting rain?
Drew Lerner:You know, when we got to mid September, we got ahead of about a week there where there were some scattered showers and thunderstorms that occurred. And, certainly, the precipitation that evolved was was really good where it did occur, but it wasn't well distributed. And that was a week ago, maybe a little more than that. And it's been very warm since then. We've lost all that moisture.
Drew Lerner:The ground is very short once again. So that whatever crop was planted and may have germinated, but it's probably not doing very well right now. And outside of that, I think the the any new planting is going to have to be dependent upon rains returning. Well, we have ten days of dry weather still ahead here, and it's going to continue to be very warm to hot. So it won't be much longer and you're gonna hear a lot of noise coming out of Brazil because of the lack of moisture.
Drew Lerner:It looks very much like last year, to be honest with you. So the earliest that we will start getting some rain to fall will probably be in the second weekend of the forecast. So ten days plus from now. And from really the October, we'll start doing a little bit better. I don't think we're gonna be quite as dry as we were last year, but we're still going to have slow evolution towards better rainfall.
Drew Lerner:And in the meantime, it's pretty wet in Southern Brazil. Some of the wheat crop down there is going to go through filling and maturation here soon in Rio Grande do Sul, and so they're gonna need some drier weather soon down that way to protect that crop. But early season corn planting, it has, the first season corn crop is off to a great start in the southern part of the country because it is raining periodically down there.
Todd Gleason:Anything that we should discuss for Argentina for the day?
Drew Lerner:You know, for Argentina, it just looks really darn good. The moisture profile is is adequate to surplus. There was some local flooding over the past couple of weeks, but it doesn't look like we're in a position where we're gonna see a lot of that just persisting. I think we'll get alternating periods of rain and sunshine to occur. There may be a little bit of a slowdown because of that, but I think the overall bottom line is Argentina is gonna be off and running very well for both wheat and barley as well as sunseed and early season corn planting, which are underway.
Todd Gleason:About a week from now, farmers would be thinking themselves, I sure would like to have a rain for two reasons. One, I'd like to be out of the field for a couple of days because I've been working really hard, and secondly, because things dry down so fast. They need a little moisture to bring crop moistures back up while harvesting.
Drew Lerner:Yeah. Absolutely. And I do think that we're going to see some brief moments of life precipitation. We have to wait until the middle to latter part of next week for that to occur with the exception of the Dakotas where there will be a little bit of rain this weekend. But the heart of the Midwest probably have to wait for Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
Drew Lerner:A little frontal system will cut through the region. We'll get some showers to occur with that. No big soaking, but we will settle the dust and probably put just a little bit of improved topsoil moisture in some areas. I think Michigan, parts of Northern Indiana, maybe Southern Wisconsin and the northernmost counties of Illinois will probably do best with that event. Now Central Illinois is really quite dry and so is the north for that matter.
Drew Lerner:But it doesn't look like we're going to get much moisture in central parts of the state. The second frontal system will bring another opportunity for rain around. That one occurs at the end of next week. And there's a lot of cool air coming in behind that. So there might be a potential we might do a little bit better with rain, but, it's too far out in time right now to see how well the Gulf Of Mexico will be or Gulf Of America will be open, for a moisture source at that point.
Drew Lerner:So we'll be watching it. Don't think it's gonna be quite as dry as it has been. It certainly won't be as hot as it has been after we get to the first half of next week.
Todd Gleason:Other places around the planet you're watching?
Drew Lerner:Yeah. There's a handful. The Lower Danube River Basin in Southeastern Europe, has been dry for a long time, but they're gonna get a good soaking rain for the next week or so. Probably one to three inches of rain would be perfect for them for improving the wheat and rapeseed planting environment. And then China is probably of interest that's probably gonna grow a little bit as we go forward through the next week because it is getting too wet.
Drew Lerner:They've had problems with too much moisture in the Yellow River Basin periodically over these past few weeks. They were starting to dry down, but now we've got more rain coming into the region from south to north. And over the next week, we're probably going to see two to four, maybe some five inch amounts. And the southern half of that region is excessively wet down deep into the ground. So there's no way that that area is not gonna have some delay in both the harvest of summer crops as well as the planting of winter wheat.
Drew Lerner:So we'll be watching that area. And then in India, we're also watching a problem with moisture abundance. Normally, this time of the year, the monsoon has pulled out of the northern half of the country, but it is still raining in central and Northern areas. And we've got quite a few soybeans and ground nut crops and even cotton that are vulnerable to a quality decline because of too much moisture. And it will rain off and on for another seven days.
Drew Lerner:But after that, we should see drier weather.
Todd Gleason:Thank you much, Drew. We'll talk with you soon.
Drew Lerner:You bet. Have a good in between time.
Todd Gleason:That's Drew Lerner. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Joined us on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It's public radio for the farming world. If you'd like to hear the program again, you can do that in a couple of ways.
Todd Gleason:You can find it at willag.0rg. Just click and listen from the or search it out by name in your favorite podcast applications including Apple, Spotify, on YouTube, as well as in the NPR One app. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.