CropGPT - Sugar

The weekly report on the global Sugar market for week 46. Brought to you by CropGPT

Show Notes

This episode delivers a strategic overview of the global sugar market as of November 16, 2025.
  • Brazil is leading global output growth, with Conab projecting a record 45 million metric tons of sugar for the season. This expansion is driven by favorable weather and improved cane processing. Mid-October projections from DataGrow for the 2026–2027 crop remain strong at 44 million metric tons, with Brazil’s Center-South regions showing the most significant gains.
  • India’s sugar industry is also experiencing renewed momentum. The Indian Sugar Mills Association estimates production will rise to 31 million metric tons, marking an 18.8 percent increase from the previous season. Contributing factors include favorable monsoon conditions and a reduction in ethanol diversion. Even with potential export limitations, India may still allocate up to 4 million metric tons for international markets if current restrictions persist.
  • Thailand is forecasted to grow sugar production by 5 percent, reaching 10.5 million metric tons for the 2025–2026 period. This boost is supported by better yields and strong export performance, facilitated by a structured trade environment that continues to back industry expansion.
  • The collective output increase across these major producers is creating a substantial global surplus. Zarnikov has adjusted its forecast to reflect an 8.7 million metric ton surplus for the 2025–2026 season. Major trading hubs like New York and London have seen downward price trends, though periodic rebounds have occurred due to technical trading factors and minor export constraints.

What is CropGPT - Sugar?

Sugar news, weather, pricing, production and predictions

Speaker 1:

Welcome to the weekly summary of the global sugar market for 11/16/2025. For more information on any aspect of this report, please visit the CropGPT website for far more detailed reporting and analysis. Brazil is significantly advancing its sugar production capabilities, with Conab projecting a record 45,000,000 metric tons for the season. This increase is attributed to favorable weather conditions and enhanced cane processing techniques. In mid October, DataGrow suggested even higher figures for the twenty twenty six-twenty seven crop, predicting 44,000,000 metric tons.

Speaker 1:

The Center South regions, in particular, are showing a marked increase in output. In India, the sugar industry is regaining momentum. The Indian Sugar Mills Association forecasts a substantial rise in output to 31,000,000 metric tons for the season, marking an increase of 18.8% from the previous season. This growth is driven by favorable monsoon conditions and a decrease in ethanol diversion. Despite potential export curbs, India may still manage to make up to 4,000,000 metric tons available for international markets if current export restrictions are maintained.

Speaker 1:

Thailand is also expected to boost its production. The Thai Sugar Millers Corporation projects an increase of 5%, bringing output to 10,500,000 metric tons in twenty twenty five-twenty six. This growth comes as a result of improved yields and robust export capabilities. The country's structured trade environment continues to support its sugar industry. Globally, the surge in output among major producers is leading to a pronounced structural surplus in the sugar market.

Speaker 1:

Zarnikov has revised its global surplus forecast to 8,700,000 metric tons for the twenty twenty five-twenty six season. Major markets such as New York and London have experienced price downtrends, although there have been occasional rebounds due to technical trading and minor export restrictions. The global sugar economy is largely influenced by these supply shifts, with Brazil, India, and Thailand playing significant roles due to their increased production capabilities. Remember, our CropGPT site contains far more details and reports about the sugar market, including crop health reports, twenty years of weather data, and even pricing data and earning call analysis. This podcast is just a few selected highlights for the week.