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Conversations on Reforestation, Silviculture, Tree Genetics, Planting, Planning and More! Join us as we go deep with forestry experts and explore the art and science of trees.
Paul Jeffreys (00:05)
Hello, everybody, and welcome to episode 18 of the Tree Lines Podcast with Arbor Gen. I'm your host, Paul Jeffreys. And today we have two very special guests with us today. We have our newly vice president of sales, Jason Watson. And welcome, Jason. It is glad to have you back on. And we also have with us today
⁓ a very special guest that I have been waiting a long time to get this ⁓ recording done because I've heard so much about him, but Jason Little, who is the director of technical and analytical services at Forest Resources Consultants. And since you both are named Jason, and I don't want to confuse our listeners any, much less our our ⁓ guest,
I'm now gonna refer to Jason Little as Jason and Jason Watson is Watson. So welcome guys and thank you both for coming on. starting out with Jason, can you tell us a little bit about your background and ⁓ what you do and and ⁓ your your role at ⁓ FRC.
Jason Little (01:14)
Sure. ⁓ double dog from the University of Georgia. graduated with my BS there and the the the right dogs. and ⁓ yeah, so graduated my F R there in O three and and worked with worked in the appraisal a little bit with a soil company and then came out and got my boots dirty, worked worked ⁓ with Red Near down in South Georgia doing just ground level forestry work.
Paul Jeffreys (01:22)
my gosh, don't even get us started in that.
Jason Little (01:41)
Did that for a couple of years and then decided to get back into appraisal and moved to Macon in 2008 and began working in the appraisal group there with Brian Stone and Richie Humphreys and got my license trained under them, learned under them. And it's been a great experience. I did that for many years. Brian eventually led that group for many years. Brian Stone did that well, worked under them with him on that. And then I led the group for
I don't know, four to six years. And we recently, well, two years ago, we hired Hal Carter and he's leading the group now. I'm still very much involved. I guess another title I have is is senior appraiser. So I'm actually working on an appraisal now doing or I'm I'm in the field doing some inspections, but so still very much involved, but transitioning more slowly out. We have two young guys i in in that group now, Lance Rogers and and Patrick Grove. So
Have a really strong appraisal group, have a strong history of doing ⁓ quality appraisal work and ⁓ been doing that, you know, FRC's been doing appraisal work since the mid nineties really and even early eighties when when the market and demand for appraisals were was not significant. So been doing that and and I do have more of a technical bin, ⁓ kind of a a tree nerd and data nerd. And so but so
Paul Jeffreys (02:45)
Mm-hmm.
Ha ha ha.
Jason Watson (02:57)
Mm-hmm.
Jason Little (02:59)
So kind of migrated more to the technical side and I'm actually leading the technical group now and we've got a lot of cool initiatives going on there that I won't get into. So I'm kinda wearing two hats right now, which is sometimes fun, sometimes not fun, but so ⁓ yeah, I'm that's a little bit of my background. ⁓ and married two great married for many years and ⁓ two great boys who are older and ⁓ the ones in college. So yeah, that's a little bit about my story. So
Paul Jeffreys (03:26)
Well, that's really interesting. So how long have you been involved? How many years of experience have you had in appraisal?
Jason Little (03:33)
we came in in two thousand and eight. So what is that? I would say yes, sir. And ⁓ I've done many, many appraisals in the southeast. We you know, we've worked FRC and myself done appraisals from East Texas. We really work in the pine belt. So really from Southeast Texas to Southeast Virginia or East Texas to Southeast
Paul Jeffreys (03:36)
Okay. Eighteen years. Yeah. Yeah.
Right.
Jason Little (03:57)
Virginia and we even dimp up in Oklahoma every once in a while. It's kinda fun working up there. It's a different world. So
Paul Jeffreys (04:02)
Wow,
that's gonna lead into some great discussion a little bit later on because if I wasn't trying to be so organized here and follow along, I could jump in right there and just ask a lot of questions that we'll get into here shortly. But Watson, man, tell us a little bit about yourself and I feel like you know you're just the one of the OGs here on the on the podcast. But for someone that might not have listened before, tell us a little bit about your background.
Jason Watson (04:15)
Mm-hmm.
Yeah, sure. and because I do but and I said this I know the time before. I think this is either my third or fourth time to be with you, Paul. and and I I think I was on the first recording with you. So we we broke ground together on this. But yeah, yeah, so Jason Watson, I'm originally from Meridian, Mississippi. I was kind of
Paul Jeffreys (04:37)
You are.
Right?
Jason Watson (04:49)
We made a joke about this minute ago, but I'm kind of a double dog too. I did my Bachelor of Science in Forestry for Mississippi State and actually got out of that or you know, graduated in the mid-90s and went to work in of all things, totally different kind of sector sort of of forestry, ⁓ for Anderson Tully Company over in Vicksburg, Mississippi and hardwood silviculture management feeding to ⁓
Well, really just one sawmill that was all the local. I was in upland hardwood management and grravitated. ⁓ we got the idea we were gonna we moved over for my wife's education, continuing education over to South Carolina in two thousand one. It's hard to believe it was that long ago. But really ⁓ changed gears, quite frank. ⁓ got over here, did some timber cruising and stuff and the contracts didn't last and I found myself
Paul Jeffreys (05:30)
Uh-huh.
Jason Watson (05:40)
you know, looking for another staying in the in the same career, but you know, back then I was looking in the yellow pages. There wasn't really the internet presence. That's a funny memory. But went to work for Weyerhaeuser in their regeneration business. They were ⁓ looking for somebody to do, you know, seedling sales. So I got into that. I planted a lot of seedlings before. Certainly I thought I could do the job. But what happened was I got really interested in genetics, which really the genetic the genetics side of it and
how that could really create step changes for landowners. and eventually a guy that really became my mentor and like a family member to me, John Pate, got me to come over to CellFor which was a wonderful decision. I got ⁓ I got exposed to a lot of good forest science in general, not just genetics, but they a lot of people that were there
I mean, we were in a lot of ways a research company. And when CellFor ⁓ closed in 2011, ⁓ several of us gravitated over to Arbigen. So I've been with Arbigen since 2012 in a reforestation advisor capacity. and then as sales manager and yeah, now vice president of sales for the US and extremely grateful for being at Arbigen. It's been a really wonderful
we're like a big family, truly, as you well know, Paul. But ⁓ but yeah, that's kind of my in a nutshell. I I did go back later in life to get a masters of science again from Mississippi State. And is if if a lot of people listen to this, but if they're watching, that's why I have even less hair than ⁓ you can but but I but I didn't do myself any favors there, so
I ⁓ I didn't get a double major in Rogain, as you can see. I just stuck with ⁓ the Masters of Science.
Paul Jeffreys (07:22)
Well, just you know, to point something out, you know, I I I don't know how y'all we are arranged on your screen, but you know, if they arranged us, it's kinda like we are, you know, their ⁓ Jason's hair is is dark. We're all close to the same age, but his he doesn't have any gray hair. Mine is all gray and now yours is gone, Watson. So I don't know if it's like yeah, it's just a progression. So anyway. Well ⁓
Jason Little (07:40)
Yeah.
Jason Watson (07:43)
Yeah, so it's a progression. It's like a progression. Yeah. Yeah.
Jason Little (07:48)
th there's a little gray. I I got the weird
lighting hiding it, but that there's a little gray in here. I got a little salt and pepper going on. I'm not adjust for me client, sorry.
Paul Jeffreys (07:52)
Okay. Okay. Okay. All right. Well good.
Jason Watson (07:57)
Yeah.
Paul Jeffreys (07:57)
Okay. All right. Well, good deal. Well, hey, I just want to get into ⁓ you know, let's jump into the topic today. And, you know, this episode, we're gonna explore the disconnect between what is modern forest genetics and traditional timberland appraisal methods.
And we really I we wanna get into I want to dive into Jason. I want to talk about why it matters. You know, we're we're all intricately involved in forestry, forest ⁓ timberland ownership and ⁓ timberland value. And today, you know, we I I know I get the question.
As a reforestation advisor. I'm the Deep South reforestation advisor for the company, and I cover Mississippi and Alabama, most of Alabama and West Tennessee. And I know I get the question a lot from and sometimes it's not even a question, sometimes it's a statement of, you know, well, the timberland appraisal does not put any value on the genetics or the quality of the seedlings or the reforestation. It just looks at it as
Flat across the board. Is it timbered or is it not? just, you know, and we really are wanting to know is are the timberland appraisals keeping up with the modern genetics? it seems like, you know, anytime you have technology never stops. And we can see that across everything in the world today. Technology never stops. But there are certain things and certain parts of industries.
Jason Little (09:19)
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (09:29)
and markets across the the the the economy as a whole that sometimes they just either lag behind or they they just don't keep up with that rapid pace of technology. And we have always looked at, I've always looked at, you know, forest genetics is technology.
⁓ regardless of you know whether it's biological or a computer or cell phone, technology is technology. And forest genetics is technology, Watson. I don't I I don't know if you'd agree or not, but that's the way I've always looked at it. It's n and the reason why I say it's technology is it never stops. There's always a new frontier to explore. whether it's something, you know.
Jason Little (09:50)
Sure.
Jason Watson (10:07)
Yeah.
Paul Jeffreys (10:15)
Chemical, whether it's quality, whether it's yield, there's always something there. And it's never gonna stop, like computers. But there are things in the forestry industry and it ⁓ and ⁓ in the economy, forest economy, that it just kind of slags behind and it it doesn't keep up with it. you know, forestry is built on biological growth.
And it changes all the time. you know, we have we have we have developed trees that are ninety percent disease resistant to fusiform rust, we've developed developed trees that will or can produce ninety percent salt timber and poles. We've developed trees that can you know grow in a various range of sites. That
creates value and what is happening in the appraisal world. So, you know, maybe if you could start out with us, you know, what is a timberland appraisal?
Jason Little (11:11)
Sure, sure. Well, I'll just start with an appraisal. You know, an appraisal the simple definition is that it's an unbiased opinion of value. That's really what it is. When when you go out and you get your home appraised, you know, you're paying a expert that's credentialed, that's certified with the state that they're working in at a certain level. And they are tasked with going out and understanding the market, understanding the dynamics in the market and telling you
their opinion of value essentially, but really that's supposed to mimic the market's opinion of value, correct? So when you put your house on the market, they're supposed to understand within reason what it would likely sell for. And the the more efficient the market is, the easier an appraisal is. So you know, you don't I don't have to go do an appraisal on the price of Apple stock, right?
'Cause I could just go out and say, well, it's trading for this and next minute it's trading for that. I mean, that market is really efficient. Significant number of participants, trades, etc. And so it's easy to track those markets. So the less efficient the market, that means essentially that you know there are less participants in the market, there are fewer trades. The the asset is highly individualized. It it can and be can't be put into a bucket. And so when you get into Timberland appraisal,
it gets much more complicated. Just like if you were appraising golf courses. You know, for example, there are appraisers out there that specialize in appraising golf courses and that's all they do. And so a Timberland appraisal is basically that that task of going out and understanding the asset, understanding the market that that asset sits in, and then telling the the client what their opinion of value basically is or what the market's ⁓ assessment of value would be
on the asset. So you don't have to overcomplicate it. It's just an opinion of mar and typically what we drive at in appraisal is market value, which basically says, hey, this thing is traded on the un open market. It's not bought under duress or there's not any weird there's not any weird stuff going on with it. You know, I'm not selling it to my cousin, that kind of value, you know, that that's sort of an unbiased
transaction in the marketplace. And so when you when I value a Timberland asset, I say on this point in time, if you were to put this asset on the market and you were to publicize it and market it appropriately, it's going to sell between X and Y. It's going to sell between X and Y and the value is going to be if I had to pinpoint a value it's going to be Z. So that's it.
Paul Jeffreys (13:36)
Right. So what kind of Jason, what do you look for when you're doing a timberland appraisal? What kind of inputs are you using to come to that number? That Z number? You gotta find the X and the Y, and then you gotta settle on that Z. What what inputs go into that?
Jason Little (13:50)
Mm-hmm.
That's a great question. Generally speaking, in appraisal methodologies and science, there are three approaches to value. And most people understand this, you know, they've probably heard this: the cost approach, the sales comparison approach, and the income approach. So we're using data and we're putting it into those three approaches to value, which is basically three perspectives of value. And so I before I get to the data, I'd rather talk a little bit about the it what is
how that data is being used. ⁓ and so for example, when you get your house appraised, they're not gonna typically unless it's new construction, they're gonna not gonna do a cost, they're not gonna do an income approach unless you're, you know, maybe renting your house out, they're gonna do a sales comparison or market approach. So I like to think about it as if, you know, a cost, it's like you look in the past, you look in the present, and you look in the future. And those are sort of the three approaches to value. The income approach is looking into the future.
Paul Jeffreys (14:23)
Yes.
Jason Little (14:48)
It's like, all right, I'm sitting here today. What sort of future potential income am I going to get from this property? The sales comparison approach is kind of looking back in the past and saying, all right, what's happened in this market over the past three years or a year or year and a half? You know, we're looking at sales that have occurred in the market. The cost approach, which is a little weird in timberland appraisal, but that's sort of a snapshot. The way we use the cost approach is
We call it more of the summation approach. That's just a that's the present. So past, present, and future. it's just like a Christmas carol, right? so it the the present is the cost approach. So essentially that says what's sitting out there on your property today, what does it look like? And then that gets value. so typically what we use the information that we use.
when we're valuing Timberland is we're using things that drive value on the asset.
Jason Little (15:41)
so basically on the data that we use, the question associated with that. We talked about the three approaches to value and ⁓ the cost approach is really ⁓ the present. And so it's it's looking at the what's out there today, ⁓ it's snapshot in time. And so when you think about the data that's used to value Timberland, you just the the really the key thing there is the the things that drive value
on the asset. So that's typically you have three compon well, you really have two components typically. And let's talk about true core timberland. ⁓ so you have the land, of course, and typically you have, you know, what type of land it is, whether so you you get into land types and I don't want to dive too deep in that, but basically there's two big buckets you can usually put in and that's the convertible. And those are really drier soils that are
adapt more adaptive and and conducive to growing pine trees and just they're just more productive and you know you you can legally you're not restricted with water rights and water usage and and damage in streams, et cetera. You can you can use those soils and those sites. so typically that's convertible land or upland land, some people might say. And the the other type of big bucket of land is is non convertible and that's typically just lower sites, you know, bottom land.
Jason Watson (16:57)
Mm-hmm.
Jason Little (16:58)
And a lot of these areas are restricted with B and Ps and uses and you can't plant in those areas, not that you would try to anyway. So th that that's one type. But the rest of it, the the other big bucket is the the type of trees out there, right? You have, you know, you got with merchageable trees, that means they're of certain age and they could be harvested and merchandised to go to a mill And, you know, that typically that age changes a little bit, but you're looking at anywhere from twelve to fourteen, fifteen.
And you usually have tons associated with those by product. So you have, you know, the type of stand, the age, you have all those dynamics typically associated with a property that you're appraising. And you know, when we're doing timberland, yes, you could do a hundred and fifty, two hundred acres, but I I feel like today's conversation is really best directed to more to the bigger, larger assets, four or five thousand acres, ten thousand acres, a hundred thousand acres, those those
assets that are really purchased for the the growth of timber, the management of timber, and the other things that come with owning land, meaning carbon and and solar and even some, you know, ag mixed in with that. But the primary purpose is to to grow trees and merchandise trees and and make money doing that. And obviously be sustainable and replanting and be ⁓ environmentally a a good steward of the environment while you do that. So
Paul Jeffreys (18:00)
Yeah.
Jason Little (18:17)
That's the data that we typically use ⁓ associated with it. So typically on an appraisal you would get ⁓ a a stand lister is what we would say. And basically that that's information on the individual stands on the forest. And typically you have the type of trees when they were planted, if they were merchantable, the tons, the current tons, the trees per acre, the basal area, all those things that are associated with
Paul Jeffreys (18:19)
Mm-hmm.
Jason Little (18:43)
with the size and height of the tree and those those metrics are used to to typically grow the tree forward. and some of them are used to value the current current property as it sits.
Paul Jeffreys (18:55)
So you mentioned something there that's that ⁓ I was gonna lead into next was basically growing the tree forward, which in in forestry we call that growth and yield programs. So do you typically when you're working on a ⁓ an appraisal, and let's face it, if you're dealing with those large property acreages like you were talking about, two thousand, three thousand acres, and you're looking at it, you're going to have multiple age classes, multiple stands.
They're going to be dynamic across that property, across that timber land. Are you using you know, ⁓ the same growth and yield for, say, this stand over here or that stand over there? Or are you putting in the various inputs? And how and and with your growth and yield program, what program are you using for that?
Jason Little (19:44)
Well, growth and yield is essentially it it's the science of the way I think about it, is taking a tree as it currently stands or taking a a stand of trees or a tree and projecting what that tree's gonna do in the future based on what you've done to it in the past and what you've done to it in the future. And as you might can imagine, this is the most complicated thing in an appraisal. And so
Paul Jeffreys (20:07)
Yes.
Jason Little (20:08)
Appraisers are not biometricians. You know, biometricians are are trained scientists and they're mathematicians essentially that specialize in this field of growing and projecting trees, ⁓ growth on trees into the future. And so, yes, we we take the merits of each individual stand and and project go growth on that. We use and that's
Paul Jeffreys (20:11)
Right.
Jason Little (20:30)
some of the challenge with appraisals and appraisers are challenged with this because one, we're not biometricians. Some of the some of the appraisers that I know, you know, they work with bigger groups and they have biometricians on staff that that handle other parts of the job. But just typically an appraiser can't hire a biometrician and keep them staffed with with just the market of doing appraisals. They just can't afford it.
Paul Jeffreys (20:45)
Yes.
Jason Little (20:56)
And so, you know, tip we rely on we there are there are several co-ops throughout the southeast and we're currently members of FMRC. there PMRC is a great co-op. We've been members of it in the past. We're considering rejoining that one. And I know the NC State has a co op. And I'm not sure how much biometric work they they put forth, but I knew they do a lot of research in genetics. I'm not as familiar with NC State.
Paul Jeffreys (21:20)
And let me say that this, Jason, to interject there, talking about biometricians and what they do. Yes, there's people your bigger your bigger entities do have their own in-house biometricians, but let's face it, biometricians is not something that, you know, you just go on any, you know, job board and find one. It is a very, very specialized I mean, Watson and I, we both studied under the same biometrician at Mississippi State.
Jason Little (21:39)
No.
Yes.
Paul Jeffreys (21:48)
He studied under our bi our our you know, he studied under under Harold Burkhart at VPI. You know, there's very it is a very specialized field.
Jason Watson (21:58)
Yeah, you don't just go in and peruse indeed.com and choose from the hundreds of biometricians.
Jason Little (21:58)
Sure.
Paul Jeffreys (22:03)
No.
Jason Little (22:04)
No, you don't. And FRC is currently in the process of starting that search. ⁓ we're in the early stages. we've had biometricians on staff in the past and and recently, you know, we we're growing. We're gonna we need another biometrician. So yeah, it's a very specialized field. It's difficult to hire these folks. and they're just few and far between. And and so
Paul Jeffreys (22:25)
Yes.
Jason Little (22:27)
That is the when I say that the biggest challenge associated with appraisals, it it is, in my opinion, growth and yield. Because for a couple of reasons, and I'll get to your to answer your question on what we use, but it one, it there's you know, there's different co-ops out there and they produce different equations. They have their own research going. You have and and for many years
sort of a growth ⁓ a tree was a tree, you know, for many years. Now we all know that that's changed because it isn't there's new technology, there's new genetics. And so now it's it's that field of even managing a co op is much more complicated because you have, you know, different you have MCPs and and higher level genetics and you have different families. And so that part is sort of a black box.
And it's a black box at times on our industry because it there's not a single source of truth. There's not a single source of truth. So we use we use a combination of equations. We use equations published by FMRC. We use equations that are in the public space for that PMRC published, the ninety six equations, which I still hold are some of the best base equations out there for growing a tree. Now those you gotta think those equations were published in
Jason Watson (23:20)
Mm-hmm.
Yeah.
Jason Little (23:40)
in nineteen ninety six. I mean, we all had we all had hair back then and and it was not great. ⁓ so you know, those are based on trees that were grown in the nineties. Obviously trees are growing different now. They're growing faster. They're growing big bigger and taller. And and so PMRC has published newer equations. You have to be a member to get access to those.
Paul Jeffreys (23:42)
Wow.
Yeah.
Well yeah.
Jason Watson (23:56)
Mm-hmm.
Jason Little (24:02)
And so it's really up to the appraiser to figure out, you know, and decide which route they're going to go. And all appraisers have, you know, most great appraisers out there. There's there's a lot of good appraisers out there. And they've cracked this nut. You know, they're they're a member of the of of a co-op or they've bought some off the shelf products. Steve No has some off the shelf products with that's been used, it's out being used out there. There's Sims.
but even Sims, you I don't know if that's fully supported anymore. I don't know if you can buy a license anymore with Sims. ⁓ and so there are just a lot of different sources ⁓ of growth and yield out there and they tell you different things. They absolutely tell you different things. And so the the challenge in the art of a good appraiser is figuring out and that part of the of the equation and
Paul Jeffreys (24:32)
Right.
Right. Right.
Jason Little (24:50)
being able to produce credible results in a growth and yield equation it is a challenge but like you said the the the higher quality top appraisers out there have figured that out and they do it on you know day in and day out on a reliable basis.
Paul Jeffreys (25:04)
And I mean that information that you're getting from those growth and yield equations is foundational for an appraisal. I mean, would you agree? I mean, it is the basis basic foundation, you know, but in an equation, the output is only as good as its inputs. I mean, the outputs are only as good. And so in those assumptions that you're using.
Jason Watson (25:05)
Mm-hmm.
Jason Little (25:12)
Absolutely. Yes. Mm-hmm.
I guess.
Paul Jeffreys (25:28)
Going into those and you're talking about one of the most used equations coming from nineteen ninety six. Okay. Watson, you and I both know that in nineteen ninety six we had not introduced any MCP. We had not introduced any I mean that stuff did not come online until two thousand. Correct me if I'm wrong. You've been doing this longer than I have.
Jason Little (25:34)
Mm-hmm.
Jason Watson (25:50)
First
the first test that Mead West Faco put in were nineteen ninety eight. So block block planting block replicated ⁓ plantings.
Paul Jeffreys (25:52)
Right.
Jason Little (25:55)
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (25:58)
So if these
equations and the output from that, Jason, is so foundational to getting that evaluation, that that ⁓ appraisal of that property, then what happens when that equation that was developed for those for that foundational information, what happens when the technology outside is gaining so fast and moving so fast, Watson.
What happens when that information is no longer that equation is no was no l was not developed with that type of input. What I'm saying is the the input going into that equation is going moving faster than the outputs that's coming out of it. And and Watson, you know, just tell us a little bit, you know, ninety six, okay, that's thirty thirty years ago.
Jason Watson (26:26)
Mm.
Jason Little (26:49)
Well
yes, sir. And, well and Paul, I I just want to interject there before for Watson answers. I may have misspoke there. I would say I'm not sure if it's the most of used equation out there. I would argue that it is a good basis for growth. A lot I do you know, PMRC have published newer equations, so is FMRC, and I think those are being used. Sims has newer equations and models. And so
Jason Watson (27:05)
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (27:06)
Right.
Jason Watson (27:08)
Foundational. Yeah. Yeah.
Paul Jeffreys (27:10)
Uh-huh.
Right.
Jason Little (27:15)
I think those are being used a lot, but I also know that some people are using ninety six and adding response functions based on genetics, ⁓ fertilization. And so they're using that ninety six as kinda like the basis of the house, and then they're going and upgrading into you know, ⁓ an outdoor kitchen when you it gets fertilized. And so yes, Watson, you can answer, but I just didn't want to misspeak and say that's the only question being used out there.
Paul Jeffreys (27:25)
Mm-hmm.
Right.
Jason Watson (27:34)
Granite countertops, that kind of thing. Yeah, yeah.
Paul Jeffreys (27:36)
Yeah.
No, no, no, no. My
my my point what I was trying to make there is my point is and wanting to get Watson's input in on this is, you know, genetics over the last twenty to thirty years has increased and improved leaps and bounds. and we're so fortunate to have work in it during this time of so much advancement, ⁓ Watson. But
Jason Little (27:43)
So
Jason Watson (27:48)
Okay.
Paul Jeffreys (28:05)
Maybe you want to talk a little bit about, you know, how that changed, what has changed in the last twenty to thirty years in genetics. And then we can tie that back into the, you know, the appraisal.
Jason Watson (28:17)
Yeah, I mean certainly there have been some some major advancements. And I do know th and I I love what Jason was saying a minute ago too, because well and before I even get into some of the changes, ⁓ because I think this is important to understand too and the challenge that the appraisers face, you know, we don't have I mean the gosh, I think
I do think that I remember hearing John Pate say that Georgia Pacific, and this wasn't I'm I good and well it wasn't just Georgia Pacific. I'm sure it was Union Camp. I'm sure it was Champion International. I'm sure Weyerhaeuser I know Westvaco before they merged with Mead were they were they were conducting MCP per se, back even in the late eighties. And because a lot of people remind you, geneticists are mind you, that's a breeding technique, and it's used to
to to be able test you know new families ⁓ and they continue a rolling front of producing new genetics. So that's been around for a long time, the closed pollination, or as we refer to it, mass control pollination MCP. But the luck think about think about it this way, we talk about this all the time and can be a broken record, I know, but we don't in forestry as a and I mean this collectively as an industry
Whether we're the people that are trying to breed the trees, or it's the appraisers or the growth and yield modelers that are also maybe the biometricians. But we don't have the luxury that our friends in row crop agriculture have. They can make a you know, that would make an appraiser's job. I'm not saying their their jobs are easy either, but their jobs would be a whole lot easier but from the standpoint of they
Paul Jeffreys (29:46)
Right.
Jason Watson (29:55)
They can in some places they'll produce two or three crops of corn in one year. So they're testing new varieties. People that are trying to benchmark the gains have that luxury of being able to evaluate that really quickly. We don't have that same luxury. we have to for years we've had to use backward selection to breed trees together, evaluate them after six, you know, grow them out of seedlings, test them, and then put them in an orchard. It can be a 15 to 20 year cycle.
So we're we're always kind of coming from behind on that. We just have a bigger challenge because we're, you know, we're not just looking at gain either. We're having to evaluate not only just product productivity or volume gain, but also the sh the form or straightness of the trees, the disease resistance, and hopefully the reduction of forks frequency that we see in stands. So we're we're kind of fighting an uphill battle to begin with, but certainly getting back to what you were saying, Paul, is
Yeah, there's Steve McKinnon, who, you know, is another another one of my forestry heroes, that ran the tree improvement co-op at NC State for so long. He's got a really good paper that was published in Journal of Forestry in 2019. And he tells the the title of it, I think, is The Evolution of a Seedling Market. And it's really well written. And he talks about how, and we all know this, but our listeners may not all know this, is
I mentioned those companies earlier like the Union Camps and the Westvacos and the Champions and Weyerhaeuser They all had these really fantastic research and development programs. And but their job, if you think about it, was to they were all working somewhat together in co-ops, but certainly they all had internal programs that were designed at producing the best gains they possibly could in terms of an integrated system. Silviculture combined with
genetics. And that was all, and it should have been, don't get me wrong. They were doing they were doing exactly what they should do, but they were producing those massive gains for their shareholders. And it was and in in that integrated model, it was the best of the best was being put on and pra in into practice on those timberlands. And when International Paper sold that, sold all their timberlands, divested of all that property in the mid-2000s, 2006 or seven,
that was what really kind of sort of created the demand for the best genetics in the open marketplace at a really in a very exponential rate. You know, you say it was started to begin in earnest. You get we got that like hockey stick effect. And you know, that's certainly when when ⁓ Arbogen really pressed the pedal to the metal.
To get that out there. And they had some early adopters that certainly were also the big reason that that happened, some really chief partners. But certainly with closed pollination, it changed everything because, Paul, we the genetic geneticists always say it in this way. It began to we began, we didn't have to rely on only knowing the mother part of that equation of the genetics.
Paul Jeffreys (32:27)
Right.
Jason Watson (32:52)
We knew then the mother and the father and we eliminated that wild pollen that entered into seed orchards. I always like to this is a crazy stat, but you know they have found pine pollen, lobolly pine pollen in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. That's how far that it flies. And so we went from then the breeding technique of having to rely only on the mother and having a lot of variation in stands in in timber stands.
Paul Jeffreys (32:59)
Right.
Yes.
Jason Watson (33:20)
To introducing specific combining abilities of that mother and the father and stacking the traits. So we really had more control over having a lot better predictability on volume gain and straightness of the stem. That's where a huge gain used to be that people only wanted to cut longleaf or slash pine because the straightness was better than law, but that's not the case, hasn't been the case for a long time because it's a very heritable.
Paul Jeffreys (33:28)
Right.
Right. Right.
Jason Watson (33:47)
trait. So essentially, and not to mention the disease or fusiform rust strides we've made and also ⁓ in forking reduction. So that is I wasn't trying to go Genesis chapter one on you there, but I was trying to give you the the ⁓ the whole encapsulated history you know a condensed history on it is very important because it has the trees that we put into the ground have a much higher probability
Paul Jeffreys (34:02)
Well it
Jason Watson (34:13)
of being flexible to make either paper or or lumber because we're creating more options that go out on the landscape because they can be used for so many different products now.
Paul Jeffreys (34:25)
Right. And there's a ⁓ there's a metric, you know, all of us know that we've learned in ⁓ our forestry school days, side index. And guys, I don't know if how y'all were taught, but you know, that's a a ⁓ metric that you basically quantify the how the trees are gonna grow on a particular site. I was taught in undergrad that you could not change side index. Site index was side indexes was the quality of the soil.
Jason Little (34:34)
Yes.
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (34:53)
And that was that was it. That's what it is. Well, Jason and Watson, y'all both know now that we've got genetics that are that are changing site index and because they are growing taller on the same sites. you know, so MCP Watson, you know, is pushing that s the the levels, is pushing
Jason Watson (34:53)
Base side index, it is what it is. Yeah. Yeah.
Jason Little (35:03)
Yeah.
Paul Jeffreys (35:15)
the ⁓ growth in yield programs, Jason, is pushing the side index matrix matrices, is pushing all of those to a lot higher number, a hot a lot higher scale and it's more uniform with more uniform and quality trees. you know, back in the back in the old days you were good to get forty eight percent salt timber quality.
Jason Little (35:31)
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (35:37)
on the stand out of the stand. You know, forty-eight percent, forty-eight out of a hundred trees would just would probably make it to that salt would probably be salt timber quality, the rest would be pulpwood. You know, now we're getting upwards of eighty, eighty-five percent of the stand being salt timber quality, all because of the genetics. And I've always compared you as talking about Watson knowing that mother and father is like a a ⁓ you know an NFL star
Jason Watson (36:03)
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (36:04)
marrying a gold
medal winning track star and them having a child together. Barring some environmental effect, that child is going to be an athlete. You know. and so, you know, it it's just it it's just the ⁓ the nature of the beast. They've been playing with genetics in row crops since what, eighteen? I mean back going back into when Native Americans were farming
Jason Watson (36:09)
Right.
Paul Jeffreys (36:28)
corn here in you know what's now the Southeast. They were playing with, you know, with genetics and crossing different things. So Jason, what, you know, where is the disconnect? We've talked about, you know, what you're looking for in a pr in an appraisal. Watson, we've talked about how the genetics have changed since y you know, our ⁓ you know, the the giants that we the shoulders of the giants that we stand on started in it. You know, where is the disconnect?
Jason Watson (36:34)
yeah. Mm-hmm.
Jason Little (36:42)
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (36:55)
Jason, between the appraisal community and the ⁓ the ⁓ timber community.
Jason Little (36:57)
Yeah.
Well, it that's a great question and I I you know, I I've been thinking a lot about this and I think I'll start with saying by saying appraisers want to get it right. You know, we're out there, we want the best information you can give us so we can use that in our appraisal. We want to get the best market information possible. We're calling buyers and sellers, getting comps. I mean
We want to get it right. You know, we're shooting our three and we want to hit it. You know, we want to be that Steph Curry. We want to shoot it and and and be a high percentage. So the the disconnect, I I would term it as as the challenge really is a couple of things I've already hit on. Technology, right? You know, okay, if you have a new technology, you're like, great, okay, show me the proof of how it changes my life. You know, when the iPhone came online and
2008 or whenever it was, instantly I could call people and listen to my favorite songs. Immediate, immediate ⁓ proof there that it's changing my life. But with trees, it's a long game, right? I I think all the praisers recognize that the technology associated with this knowing the mother and father, just like you explained, produces better growth, better trees.
Jason Watson (37:56)
Yeah.
Mm-hmm.
Jason Little (38:13)
Even when Jason says that and and you guys say that and you're in the business of it, we know that you're not lying. We've gone out to test plots, we see that. And so we we know that it's there. but there's also i you know that it's there, but Jason, I would just ask you, you know, when when when MCPs really took off, what age are those trees right now? When that really became in vogue, you know, how old are those trees right now?
Jason Watson (38:32)
Mm-hmm.
yeah, they're th thankfully they're now finally at the mid rotation age, you know, to like maybe eighteen, you know, years old. So two thousand if it really began in earnest in two thousand seven, you're looking at what, nineteen nineteen years at the oldest, maybe. Not quite a full rotation, you know.
Jason Little (38:56)
Yeah, so the so that that's one part of the challenge is the technology there is the burden of proof. Like we believe you but we can't go up and it's hard for us as an appraiser because we're under really high scrutiny and if it goes wrong, it comes back to us to say, Well, you know, we just bumped site index by ten feet and we bumped the the saw timber production by thirty percent. And they're like, Where'd you get that from? Well, I don't know. You know, I I've I talked with Jason and he told me.
Paul Jeffreys (39:02)
Right.
Jason Little (39:22)
And you're like, well, wait a minute. You c that's that's the Fox card in the in-house. And it's not that I don't believe Jason. It's just there's not a single source of truth. And then you and I'm not I'm not ⁓ disparaging co-ops, but so you look and you say, Well, where where can appraisers go out and get these growth and yield equations for MCPs? well, you got different co-ops and th they're they're starting to work on this and they're at some stage of working on this, but part of
Paul Jeffreys (39:23)
Right.
Right.
Jason Little (39:47)
their issues too is it's still a young technology, even though we know that it's there. And so that's part of the challenge, is the nature of the technology. There's no single source of truth. And it's very disjointed because you have different companies doing this. And so, you know, I was here, Jason, and you guys will say, well, my MCP is when this family is going to grow better than X.
Paul Jeffreys (39:53)
Right.
Jason Little (40:11)
MCP from this other competitor, you know? You're probably gonna say that and that's okay. And you may believe that. But it's like, well, when I get a data set, it may have MCPs, it may it may have it may have the families, but you have multiple families that were bred for different things. And so it the disconnect or the challenge is that it's highly complicated too. And so if an appraiser could dial up a phone and say, Hey, I'm calling the MCP hotline.
Jason Watson (40:14)
Yeah.
Paul Jeffreys (40:26)
Mm-hmm.
Right.
Jason Little (40:39)
I got this property, I got these MCPs Can you give me a growth and yield equation that's been proven and tested I could use? That, you know, they would I would be smiling and dialing right now to get that number. We all would be. And so we're begging for that that single source of truth. But as an appraiser, you know, we're we're a third party appraiser. We can't go out and and mandate that either.
Jason Watson (40:46)
Yeah.
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (41:02)
Right.
Jason Little (41:02)
And we can't go to Jason and say, hey, Jason, we could, and you know, we're we may be working towards this, is can you give us some guidelines based on your information on how trees are growing and how they can improve? And if you can get that published, I would love to do that and use that. So that really is the disconnect is that we know what's there, we want to use it, and we do in our and I will say I'll just speak briefly to FRC.
Is that I I love what you talk about site index too, because the third challenge in this, and I'll be brief, is the data. Sometimes th this is all assuming that when somebody gives you a data package that it's gonna have this information. And most of the large TMOs and and institutional ownerships provide that now. But you know, for a while that wasn't happening, but now that's being provided. But
Paul Jeffreys (41:39)
Right.
Right.
Jason Little (41:50)
it it's tricky even in that is in the site index number is that you know that that could be a site in based on a site index based on the previous the previous stand. It doesn't account for what's being done now.
Paul Jeffreys (42:00)
Right.
Jason Little (42:02)
So there's a lot of challenge in figuring out what this site index, ⁓ what's going on with this site index.
Jason Watson (42:03)
Yeah.
Paul Jeffreys (42:07)
So guys, you know, ⁓ in the past, talking about as Jason was saying there earlier, about you know, the age of the first ⁓ MCP stands then and what we're seeing coming out, you know, we're just getting them at mid rotation age right now, you know.
Jason Watson (42:19)
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (42:25)
Watson, just tell us a little bit those stands that are coming of mid rotation, mid mid rotation age, and and then also being final harvested. There are a few now that are being what are we seeing actually from MCP stands? And, you know, when that first came out, as Jason was talking about earlier, it being theoretical, you know, they everybody was was hearing what we were saying and everybody knew that
Jason Watson (42:44)
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (42:49)
⁓ you know, what was coming out of the tree improvement co-ops and everybody could understand, yes, genetics plays a big part in agriculture. But, you know, what I can't tell you how many times people would look at me and and go, Well, I just don't believe it until I see something cut. You know, I I I just I can't believe that until I see something cut. What are we you know, Watson, what are we actually seeing now come out of those stands?
Jason Watson (43:06)
Yeah. Sure.
I'll make let me make a comment on that too. I I totally get it, because you know, it's Jason, I think, said this really perfectly earlier. The fact that we trust you, we know that you're I mean look, we're all graduate even though we're a company, it's funny. I mean, we we're a forest ArborGen is a forest genetics research.
Company, when you think about it, it's just that that product they produce is in the form of seedlings that yes, we're trying to sell. We want, we have to do that, you know. And but we also have to, you know, I think that people believe we're, you know, we're most all of us are registered foresters. We're bound to ethics and being truthful and trying to be to give people the best advice. And yet at the same time, this is not unique to us. I mean, everybody has.
Paul Jeffreys (43:38)
Right.
Jason Watson (43:58)
everybody has to demonstrate to ⁓ you know, any a given marketplace or a body of standards that you are ⁓ producing repeatable type results that can really be trusted, you know, first and foremost. I just wanted to mention that because I it was a great mention that Jason Little said ⁓ that that's huge. That's a huge thing. And but yeah, we're we are, we're seeing really good we're s
Paul Jeffreys (44:11)
Right.
Jason Watson (44:23)
know, we're seeing really great results. And I think part of what you said a minute ago about people being dubious is all we had to go on in the early to the, you know, the early two thousands up to the well, even the two thousand tens, the early part of the two thousand tens were test results from genetics testing where people know that it is it's manicured, but it's also manicured for a reason because you can't you have to do it that way and take out as much environmental noise and you can't get genetic, you can't get dependable.
Paul Jeffreys (44:44)
Yeah.
Jason Watson (44:51)
Or statistically sound results. If you don't take, yes, you're trying to you're trying to create genetic expression because if you don't, then your test results are no good. So you got to manage the environment. and yet the really great part is, and we're working really closely with a partner. Jason Little is aware of this. ⁓ we're working really closely with a partner right now that is, thank goodness it's an independent study of over 150 plots of.
Paul Jeffreys (44:53)
You're trying to isolate that genetic impact.
Jason Little (44:56)
Mm-hmm.
Jason Watson (45:18)
pre and post-thinning data from mid these mid-rotation age stands. So that's a that's a lot of data. These this company has invested hundreds of thousands of ⁓ of dollars into doing this, not just to demonstrate it to the marketplace, but for their own saying, okay, we've invested all this, are we really seeing it? The great thing is from the results of what we're seeing are almost mirror images of
Not just the productivity enhancements for the volume, but maybe as much as is as important as anything right now in the way current timber markets are evolving. The really encouraging thing is they're seeing the same thing in terms of the amount of trees. We call it salt timber potential, but it's really what we're all we're saying is the number of trees that are defect free, at least in one 16-foot, you know, that butt log.
Paul Jeffreys (45:58)
Right.
Right.
Jason Watson (46:08)
And
the good thing about mid-rotation age stands, if you think about it, it's not a 25-year-old stand, but those trees are even on some of the more the the poor site or lower site indices are still over fifty feet tall, sixty feet tall. Sometimes they're seventy-five, eighty feet tall on the best sites. And so we've got ⁓ we've got the first two logs at least are already set. You know, I mean anything could happen, ice storm.
an ice storm or tornado or, you know, something like that, a hurricane. But for the most part, that's a really encourag those are really encouraging results, Paul, because we we're having an independent source, not ArborGen, that's gonna help publish these results, which is another thing we might touch on before we have to go, but is that's that's that that's what's needed. We need that independent information and thank goodness that's where we're going so that it
Paul Jeffreys (46:48)
Right.
Well I you met you
Jason Watson (46:58)
It's not on a sales brochure. It's more of an independent. It produces the output that can be an independent guideline. It's not Argent, it's not whoever, Weyerhaeuser, it's not Rayonier, PRT, whoever is in the marketplace. And in that, and in that way, it's very industry serving and and very much needed by the appraisers is that independent set of standards that they can use as guidelines where it's unbiased. I think it's really
Paul Jeffreys (47:04)
Right.
Well,
you mentioned something there, Watson, that you know, the investment that people are putting into all of this and what they're seeing come out of it. And a lot of times when this first started, ⁓ a lot of times people thought, this is just academic. You know, this is just academic, this is not nobody's really but this is money. And they're they're putting a lot of money into
this and also putting a lot of money into connecting these two ⁓ facets of forestry and improving all of this and and getting this. So ⁓ Jason, you know, what happens when genetics are fully accounted for in valuation of land? If you've gotten it and and and you may we may you may not you may say, hey, we're not there yet. We haven't gotten to where it's fully accounted for.
And if we haven't, what would you see is going to happen? But what has happened as far as with land sales, acquisitions, and lending decisions when you account for genetics in that equation?
Jason Little (48:28)
Well, simply put, when you you properly account well let's just talk about the income approach from a simple perspective, right? You you're growing trees in the future and you're harvesting those trees in an environmentally friendly way and and yes, that's the income approach and it's a sustainable manner, but you're harvesting these trees. It's wood times dollars. That's that it let's assume that
Paul Jeffreys (48:42)
And that's the income approach.
Jason Little (48:52)
Retail land sales and small tract sales are not occurring 'cause that's a whole nother bucket that we don't want to really get into at the moment. But if you buy ten thousand acres and it's in a wood basket, you're you're buying that to grow trees. And it's the more wood you grow, if the price were to remain constant that that you're gonna sell your wood for, and if you grow more wood, it's more valuable.
Paul Jeffreys (49:14)
Right.
Jason Little (49:15)
So at the end of the day, what's happening, if you properly account for that, the income approach does increase because you're growing more wood. Even if you hold you know, it and and if you're growing more saw timber, then value is gonna increase more. So we have seen in areas where let's take genetics out, but probably ten years ago or so, we started to see s specifically in coastal markets.
where you have naturally high sites. You know, just naturally, you're talking about South Carolina, Southeast Georgia. You have those sites that are just eighty, eight grow trees. Even if you put a low tier tree out there, it's gonna grow it's gonna grow. We saw at that point in time, because people were depending on the income approach, land values start to significantly increase and separate themselves. So much so
Paul Jeffreys (49:49)
Soil that's made to grow trees.
It's gonna grow it. Yeah.
Jason Little (50:06)
that we separated that market out and we called that high site, that's a high site sale. And so if you were, for example, in Wayne County or Long County down there in Georgia and you sold a large investment property and you compared it with a property that sold, let's say, in Telfair County or Dodge County or Lawrence, where the soils aren't - they're good. I don't get any complaints. But
Paul Jeffreys (50:28)
Yeah.
Jason Little (50:29)
You would see a difference in land value, significant difference. And you're talking about, you know, what, a hundred miles, seventy miles? So basically at the end of the day, you have more value. And I I would I would just wanted to say and take the moment here before we we have to wrap that I I just want to applaud Arborgen and Jason for for for really leading this conversation and leading this effort. We had a conference last year with this client we spoke about and we went out and looked and
Paul Jeffreys (50:35)
Right.
Jason Little (50:57)
You guys are trying to get a paper published now. That that's what it's going to take, like all of us trying to work together. Because probably ten years from now, this will be less of an issue because you're gonna have the the co ops rolling out with more equations associated for this type of these type of genetics. And so it's gonna be less of an issue as as we get older and I retire. So right.
Paul Jeffreys (51:18)
Right. When we get out of
it.
Jason Little (51:20)
Yeah, exactly. So ⁓ really at the end of the day, Paul, you just have more value. And you know, one of the ways that we are accounting for it now is we're handling through site index. we're we're taking those C Ps and we're we're adjusting the site index to what we think are above average sites based on the the region and the property. So
Jason Watson (51:20)
Sh sh sh sh
Paul Jeffreys (51:38)
So let
me give you a let me give you a an actual example of something that an equ a question that was posed to me, Jason, that a ⁓ we had a client, they were going through a very large land sale, selling a lot of timber land. We had worked with them, Watson, as you know, for several years, and I got the call one day from one of the head foresters in the company that was pro that was tasked with doing the
Jason Watson (51:39)
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (52:04)
evaluation or basically cre developing or coming up with the number, you know, per acre value. And he calls me up and he says, Paul, listen, he said, we've been planting y'all's higher genetics and we've seen the increase. We've seen the I mean it's proof is is what's growing out there. But we've got to come up with a number because we've we're selling a large piece of our property off. how much do you think what do you think the
Jason Watson (52:10)
Mm mm.
Paul Jeffreys (52:29)
incremental increase in our site index has been moving from this genetic, which at the time before we were working with them was just the the lowest end, cheapest tree they could buy, to moving up and even planting MCP on some properties. And that's what they were wanting. They were wanting to know hey, how has this impacted our site indices? What has, you know, what has come about, you know, what's changed. And
Jason Little (52:51)
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (52:56)
I I grinned when he asked me because I was happy that they were going to actually put a value to it. because they saw that this was just a timberland sale. That's that that land was it was always going to be in timberland. It was high quality timber growing land and had a lot of mills around the area and everything. So, you know, going back to your to your your statement there about site index, I've got I've actually gotten that question.
Jason Little (53:21)
Mm. Yeah. Yeah.
Paul Jeffreys (53:23)
You know, and it was
going into a real life evaluation. I mean, it it wasn't this wasn't theoretical. These guys were they these guys were had been tasked because they had told look, you're we're selling the land regardless. And I've always also told, you know, had a question, a landowner called me the just recently in the last couple of days and ⁓ wanted to know how to value the timber on their property and if I could you know
Jason Little (53:25)
Sure.
Yeah.
Mm-hmm.
Jason Watson (53:35)
Mm.
Paul Jeffreys (53:48)
what would be the value per acre of their property. And I just broke it down and I said, look, here's the point. You're wanting to sell the land for $100,000 per acre. The buyer is wanting to buy the land for zero per acre. We've got to come to a point in the middle where everybody's satisfied. You know, yeah, I mean, it that's what it is. I mean, that's what it is.
Jason Watson (54:04)
It might as well start with the extremes. ⁓
Jason Little (54:06)
Yeah.
Well, hey, you you n you
know what you need to do though, you need to hire an appraiser, he can tell you.
Paul Jeffreys (54:15)
Yes, And that was my comment. Well, I'm not
Jason Watson (54:15)
Yeah.
Paul Jeffreys (54:18)
an appraiser, but I can tell you this, there's a lot of factors that go into coming up with that that dollar amount. you know, but that was an actual comment that I gave the landowner was hey, you want you want an extreme, he wants an extreme, the buyer wants an extreme. we gotta come to a point in the middle where everybody's satisfied.
Jason Little (54:37)
Sure. Yeah, and yeah, so that that's the easiest lever that appraisers have now is the site index because like you were saying, that's really in the in a growth and yield equation, that's like the engine. You know, you can put it you can put the four cylinder engine in there, you can put the V8 And typically we put the V8 engine on each I I will say we we'll we will adjust if we feel like the
Jason Watson (54:37)
Sure. Yeah.
Jason Little (55:02)
The data, the current site index is based on the previous stand. And it's typically pretty easy to do that when you start doing weighted averages. You know, if your merch, if your 15 through 20 is site 80 and your pre-merch is all site 65, and you know they planted MCPs, you just know that that's just a holdover site index. And so we do adjust those in a reasonable way, you know, and we keep record of that and we feel like we could stand behind that.
So we identify those MCPs and I think most appraisers or your your good appraisers are are using that site index tool. They're just being that lever, they're just being careful with it. But you know, Jason, I know you're talking ⁓ there's the site index can't solve all problems though, because you've got more basal area and you've got higher grade. And that's where we get a little nervous adjusting those. And so that's what we really we really need this paper and this effort that you're putting forth.
Paul Jeffreys (55:39)
Right.
Jason Watson (55:51)
Mm-hmm. And that's where the that's and that yes. And therein
Paul Jeffreys (55:51)
Well
Jason Watson (55:56)
lies exactly the paper that we are ⁓ working on publishing. We've submitted an abstract and it entails the thinning exercise that I described earlier that that one of our partners is working on. And and it's gonna be in a case study format that can that can not only be peer reviewed, but
be a little less academic. It'll be more of you can follow these guidelines. And Jason touched on this earlier. And where it doesn't have the three different levels of MCP and the two different levels of OP, it has a some of the really excellent feedback we got from the appraisers in the two workshops we held last year. And I'll put in a plug, we're doing another one this coming October in Athens, Georgia, a good place to have one. ⁓
Paul Jeffreys (56:41)
I want an invite.
Jason Watson (56:42)
You'll you'll you'll be there. is the ⁓ the other thing is like really making it even though that we could get down into the details, it needs to be a guideline to follow for open pollinated material and it needs to be another case study guideline for control pollinated MCP material so that we're not we know we want to make this as as less cumbersome as we possibly can. That it because a general guideline right now is enough.
Jason Little (56:42)
Amen, go dogs.
Jason Watson (57:07)
I mean, we we may do something different in a decade, you know, as we talked about during our retirement parties, ⁓ in the years to come, but but for now, we want to start with that basic methodology that is a good a good dependable guideline, a good I wouldn't say conservative, but a good a good one that's dependable that we can follow. I think that's the key to it, you know.
Paul Jeffreys (57:07)
Uh-huh.
Right.
Well, it's going that
the planning planning and and and let's face it, all of this is all we're talking about today is for planning, you know, planning. A landowner today, you know, we're talking about this coming out. We're talking about the paper coming out. Jason, we're talking about real estate evaluation, valuation are starting to ⁓ include genetics in the value of the property.
Look, let's face it, that's coming in the future. A landowner today that wants to plan for the future, by the time that's those trees, those seedlings that they're planting at this planting season become rotational age or become, you know, merchantable size age, this stuff is going to be in the equation. It's going to be in the market. So if you're planning
Jason Watson (58:11)
Yeah. Yeah. That's why we're working
right hard. H we're working hard right now to help, you know.
Paul Jeffreys (58:15)
Right. So if you're
planning for a reforestation project this coming winter and you're saying, okay, I want to make sure that I'm setting my my legacy, I'm setting my family up or I'm setting my sit my investment up to make the most profit, whether it's on the land sale or whether it's on the sale of the timber, I better be in using something that's going to be better quality, that's going to create a better site index, it's going to create a higher value for the landowner. It's going to create a higher value.
for the buyer is going to be worth more. I better take that into account today because fifteen years down the road, twenty five years down the road when that timber's ready to be cut, this is going to be in the equation.
Jason Watson (58:58)
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think
Jason Little (58:58)
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (58:59)
I mean, that's just
common sense. you know, these people that are saying, well, I'm not going to do that until I see that it's actually valuable. Well, by the time you see that actually come to fruition, you've missed the boat.
Jason Watson (59:10)
Well, I always love Walt McPhail's a veterinarian over here in South Carolina, Tree Farmer of the Year. He's he Walt, every time you see him, he says, When's the best time to plant a tree? Well, twenty-five years ago was the answer. And then you say, But the next best time is today, you know. And I think that what I think some decisions and look, this is independent of ArborGen I know Forisk ⁓ we had Amanda Lane on here, remember a few months ago, Paul, and a couple months ago and
Paul Jeffreys (59:21)
Twenty five years ago.
Jason Watson (59:37)
With forisk and all the the survey that they put out shows that people are making more deliberate decisions, not just for appraisals, but also because it's kind of market induced, planting fewer trees per acre, they're being more deliberate about site preparation and genetics in concert, you know, with each other, to to to recognize there's some market forces that are pushing us that.
Paul Jeffreys (1:00:00)
Well guys, with that being said, I think we need to wrap up and I again want to just reiterate Watson and Jason, thank you both so much for coming on today. I think we've had some great discussion. I think we've delved into some myths, we've talked about some of the, you know, what's being talked out there on the market and we're we've also gotten into what's forthcoming, you know, coming down the road. We've got a lot of exciting things to look forward to when it comes to timberland appraisal.
genetics and seedlings. It's always ever evolving. Again, as you can probably tell, I'm passionate and I love my job because this is exciting. I'm kind of like you said, Jason, a tree nerd. So I love this whole, you know, this this whole forestry and looking ahead at timberland value. If any of our listeners out there has a question,
Jason Watson (1:00:36)
Ha ha
Paul Jeffreys (1:00:52)
you know about this or about anything we've talked about today about property valuation or genetics or anything, please reach out to ArborGen.com to find your local reforestation advisor. Give them a call. Any of us would be glad to talk to you. And if we don't know the answer, we'd be glad to put you in contact with Jason Little with FRC. Get him, you know, to in on the conversation. Watson
you know, our new VP, he's got the new title and everything, but he's, you know, very approachable and still ⁓ can reach out to him with questions and everything. But with that being said, thank you all for tuning in to episode eighteen of Arbor Gen's TreeLines podcast. I'm your host Paul Jeffreys As always, go outside, stay outside, enjoy the environment.
Do what you love. Stay out there. Enjoy God's creation. And thank you so much for joining us again. And have a wonderful day. Thank you all.
Jason Little (1:01:53)
Thanks for having me.
Jason Watson (1:01:54)
Thanks.