Civil Discourse

Dr. Judy Twigg joins Aughie and Nia to discuss the latest developments on the Russian/Ukrainian border.

Show Notes

Dr. Judy Twigg joins Aughie and Nia to discuss the latest developments on the Russian/Ukrainian border. Dr. Twigg also gives us a primer on recent Russian history and the reasons for conflict between these nations.

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Nia Rodgers: Good morning.

Judy Twigg: Good morning.

Nia Rodgers: Good morning augie.

Aughie: Good morning yeah.

Nia Rodgers: it's very much like the waltons at this point so except with good morning, instead of good night so listeners, we have with us, Dr Judy twig.

Nia Rodgers: Who is our Russia expert and she's helping us with this short today because we've you know we have many, many questions about about Ukraine and Russia, but we're going to keep it to a relatively short.

Nia Rodgers: we're recording this on February 18 so when you hear this if we if they have already invaded each other or there's been a you know limited nuclear exchange for sorry that hasn't happened yet so we're projecting into the future, but again I had a few questions for for Dr twig so.

Nia Rodgers: Judy, can I start with the first question.

Judy Twigg: Sure, although i'll just briefly play off your intro with two really important points, one is that the chances of limited nuclear exchange evolving out of this situation are.

Nia Rodgers: Virtually 00 excellent.

Judy Twigg: i'm not worried about that that's not going to happen.

Nia Rodgers: And this.

Judy Twigg: is invading each other is a framing of the situation that plays right into putin's hands.

Judy Twigg: yeah rain Ukraine is not going to invade anybody Russia is going to try and is currently trying its best to make it seem as though Russia is doing that to give Russia a pretext to invade.

Aughie: Ukraine is doing that to give Russia free text right.

Judy Twigg: Russia wants everybody to think it is.

Aughie: yeah.

Aughie: i'll still moves yeah.

Judy Twigg: That will.

Judy Twigg: give Russia a pretext to invade further that's another thing that's not just a semantic thing Russia invaded Ukraine back in 2014 and 14,000 people have been killed in that conflict since then so.

Judy Twigg: When we talk about what Russia Russia might do next it's a further invasion or intensification of Russian aggression that has already taken place.

Aughie: you're on mute yeah.

Nia Rodgers: i'm so sorry, is that, beyond Crimea that they've invaded are we talking about Crimea.

Judy Twigg: That is beyond.

Nia Rodgers: Crimea so Okay, the.

Judy Twigg: place in Ukraine that everyone is focused on right now are two provinces in the eastern part of Ukraine.

Judy Twigg: called called the donbass region and back as a part of that 2014 invasion when Russia just relatively peacefully just took over Crimea.

Judy Twigg: They also sent in on uniformed Russian troops remember all the talk about the little green men back in 2014.

Aughie: Oh yes.

Judy Twigg: yeah if those were Russian troops disguised as Ukrainian provocateur tours who start up trouble that basically gave Russian backed separatists in those parts of Ukraine.

Judy Twigg: And an excuse, a fabricated excuse to start trouble so right now in those two regions of Ukraine, think about it as being like two states in the United States, those two regions of Ukraine are divided.

Judy Twigg: Where there's part of those regions that still formerly part of Ukraine and there's part of those regions that are part of a conflict zone in which there is shelling and violence and loss of life happening all the time.

Judy Twigg: The most likely scenario for Russia to move now is to intensify the conflict in those regions and use those as the staging points for further incursions into Ukraine.

Nia Rodgers: So if you're having a fight right and the other person punches you because you've punched them.

Nia Rodgers: Then you go around saying they punched me I need to punch them back and they're like no I just punched you in Defense like I wasn't.

Nia Rodgers: I didn't start this somehow that's what that's what Russia is doing with Ukraine they're saying well they're fighting and you're like well yeah we're fighting for our lives because you're in here.

Nia Rodgers: Trying to kick our butts and take our names and we don't like that, and so Russia keep saying, but they're fighting they're fighting well yeah they're fighting because.

Judy Twigg: You got.

Judy Twigg: So much of putin's behavior that can be accurately described in schoolyard bully terms.

Judy Twigg: yeah this is definitely one of those cases, so what we've been.

Judy Twigg: Looking over the last you know, over the last couple of weeks, but especially intensified over the last 24 hours.

Judy Twigg: Is all along the sort of artificial border that separates the Ukrainian held part of those two regions in the east versus the separate test, you know Russian backed part of those two regions in the east all along that border, there has been intensified Russian showing.

Judy Twigg: They hit a kindergarten Ukrainian controlled side about this time, yesterday a couple of teachers were hurt no kids were hurt but they're just laughing shells over just waiting for someone on the Ukrainian side to fight back right.

Judy Twigg: Oh, the Ukrainian armed forces are in a horrific position, right now, because they are taking this fire under orders, not to fire back, not to defend themselves, for fear that this will give Russia, the public relations pretense that it's looking forward to.

Nia Rodgers: Okay we've heard of this happening in a lot of other conflicts right where somebody starts shooting and then someone else shoots.

Nia Rodgers: back because they're afraid or.

Nia Rodgers: or accidentally right that's a lot of times somebody accidentally shoots and then they, the other side uses it excuse well now they're shooting at us to.

Aughie: It listeners another metaphor if you're a sports fan.

Aughie: Another metaphor here is.

Aughie: You see this in athletic competitions somebody commits a file the refs don't see it, but what the ref see is the response okay right who gets flagged okay for the bow.

Nia Rodgers: Right.

Aughie: it's the one who responds right, so I mean is any.

Nia Rodgers: audience goes bonkers because it's incredibly unfair, which is basically what we're doing.

Nia Rodgers: we're going bonkers because it's basically unfair right like.

But.

Aughie: As somebody who's coached sports teams before i've told my players don't respond but Judy, as you just mentioned in regards to the Ukraine.

Aughie: Military of forces, it puts them just in in terrific spot because you have been trained as a person in the military that when you're fired upon you do what in response.

Nia Rodgers: Fire back.

Aughie: You fire back right, I mean cuz.

Aughie: that's what you've been trained to do that's your job.

Aughie: Well hey.

Nia Rodgers: and wait so i'm just going to say that me as a as a non trained individual if I if somebody blew up the kindergarten in my town, it would be really hard for me not to.

Nia Rodgers: Not to be like Oh, you know you know what i'm gonna come over there and kick your butt because this is not okay right, so I can I get that it's also riling up regular people.

Nia Rodgers: who may have tiny little weapons and and go out right and and try to defend their town and that that also could be used as a as I assume a precursor, can I ask, though.

Judy Twigg: A larger question.

Judy Twigg: Two points about this, though.

Judy Twigg: Why is that the.

Judy Twigg: correct way we're framing this here points to how sort of mature and.

Judy Twigg: And and doing anything they can to maintain peace, the Ukrainian Government, the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian people are being.

Judy Twigg: And in fact putting strategy here is backfiring in that these these provocations of the last couple of weeks, this force build up now with 150,000.

Judy Twigg: You know, Russian troops surrounding Ukraine on three sides of their country it is uniting the Ukrainian people.

Judy Twigg: in favor of joining NATO joining the European Union being oriented westward rather than toward Russia.

Judy Twigg: There were already leaning in that direction, but it's even further solidifying Ukrainian public opinion in that direction, so what food news doing is backfiring here just kind of dangerous because it's it's putting him into a corner in some ways.

Judy Twigg: Right second thing is that, in practical terms i'm taking the sports field analogy even further, you know so let's imagine since we're in Europe here let's do you know let's do soccer let's do that kind of football, you know cuz soccer players are famous for you know feigning the injury.

Nia Rodgers: Oh yes, oh i've broken my ankle and they follow.

Nia Rodgers: Her there's lots of.

Judy Twigg: Exactly so let's imagine that that you have this scenario we've outlined where someone.

Judy Twigg: You know commits a foul the other person pushes back and everybody gets upset about the pushback rather than the initial file.

Judy Twigg: Now let's imagine, not only has that happened, but the initial aggressor has also pre planted injured players all over the field that he can point to and say look look at all of the fans that are already being committed by the other side.

Judy Twigg: And is also fabricating all kinds of videos and planting them all over social media and on the.

Judy Twigg: hometown TV stations about the horrendous fouls that the opposing team has created some Russian state media now is talking about Ukrainians committing genocide against Russian speaking people in the donbass region.

Nia Rodgers: Of course.

Nia Rodgers: that's that's what I would say.

Judy Twigg: videos I mean using really landing on that word genocide in a major way over the last couple of weeks.

Judy Twigg: And doctoring videos of mass graves of exchanges of fire initiated by Ukrainian forces.

Judy Twigg: You know, Russia, one of the things that will be unique about this conflict, if this conflict happens is that it will be the first time we've seen information warfare as a key element of the campaign in the era when Russia has become so good at that so it's going to look different than.

Nia Rodgers: What except can I throw out a small tiny glimmer of hope, which is that there are a fair number of dissonance in Russia who don't believe that crap like who can who look at that and.

Judy Twigg: Say jail over last year.

Nia Rodgers: right but but but that there's at least a an underground of people who were like this is not a thing and we.

Nia Rodgers: This is made up, and we have to try to I don't know get the word, you know what I mean like I think there's this tiny I have this tiny glimmer of hope that.

Nia Rodgers: That they're not all in jail and some of them could.

Nia Rodgers: could be slowly trying to work on the on it from the other direction, and say this is what that really looks like like the ones who were taking cell phone videos where he's saying we're pulling troops back and they're like nah.

Nia Rodgers: here's my cell phone video of 8000 tanks in my neighborhood, this is not, if this is a pullback, then what were we added the beginning.

Nia Rodgers: Which is really kind of Nice because we're getting sort of citizen reporting from out of Ukraine, where you're getting videos that haven't been doctored and that that's a huge I mean I know it's a tiny glimmer of hope but it's at least a glimmer of hope.

Judy Twigg: Right yeah It means that the information space is not entirely polluted that you have.

Judy Twigg: yeah and and then you have.

Judy Twigg: To go ahead.

Aughie: Well, this kind of sort of strikes me in.

Aughie: In YouTube know this about me in maybe some of our listeners though i'm a big film fan this really reminds me of the movie wag the dog.

Aughie: Okay, where you are manufacturing a war okay and you're using technology and actors, etc, etc, but one of the premises of wagging the dog, is that you have a reason to do so, so which begs the question why is putin's wagging the dog, if you will, with Ukraine.

Nia Rodgers: yeah did Ukraine talk bad about his mom or something like what is the deal with.

Nia Rodgers: with Ukraine being his upset he's like a stalker and Ukraine is like an ex girlfriend that has left him and somehow.

Nia Rodgers: You just can't he just can't stop chasing her around not that i'm referencing anybody calling me rest but um but you know, like what what is the deal what's so special about Ukraine.

Judy Twigg: So, and our metaphors are just on fire, this morning here.

Judy Twigg: So it's not only Why is putting so obsessed with Ukraine in general it's Why is he doing these specific things with this military buildup and this particular threat, why is this happening now.

Judy Twigg: What do you know what what is what is driving the timing of this action, so in in a broad sense.

Judy Twigg: And we're going to do a whole lot of history in a very short period of time here, it goes back to the collapse of the Soviet Union back in the early 1990s and the fact that, when the Soviet Union collapsed.

Judy Twigg: The 15 countries that were formerly part of the Soviet Union, all of them on the European side of Russia leaned westward many of them joined the European Union, some of them join NATO.

Judy Twigg: A lot of the not just the Eastern European countries that were in the Soviet orbit but actually the countries that were part of the Soviet Union, the Baltics Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia.

Judy Twigg: are now solid members of the western transatlantic community in both political, economic, security terms.

Judy Twigg: And as that has as that played out in the 90s there wasn't much Russia could do about it, remember barn the barn Nelson was in charge in Russia back then, you know he and Clinton were great buddies they.

Judy Twigg: were working together toward Russian economic reform, building democracy in Russia that all came to a crashing halt when hooton came into power in the year 2000.

Judy Twigg: He never liked the idea of Russia, turning the word he never liked the idea of Western oriented Western allied countries being right at his doorstep.

Judy Twigg: throughout most of the 2000s Russia wasn't powerful enough to do anything about it.

Judy Twigg: Ah, but as oil and natural gas prices went up in the mid to late 2000s so Russia got lots and lots of money from selling those commodities on international markets.

Judy Twigg: As Putin has consolidated his political power over time he's been able to speak more and more confidently about Russia as a resurgent legitimate great power in its own right.

Judy Twigg: he's been able to forge maybe not alliances, but conversations with China and with some other.

Judy Twigg: Non Western countries in the world about forming an international system that poses an alternative to a real polar American lead western liberal capitalist democracy.

Judy Twigg: And so, this is what we're seeing in big broad historical terms, is the evolution of trends that have been in in place over the last couple of decades.

Judy Twigg: Why is it happening right now know why is prudent taking these moves right now, so, and if there are a couple of reasons, one is that Ukraine has always been a particular.

Judy Twigg: sort of foreign in in putin's pop for a couple of reasons, one is that it's big and potentially very wealthy and right on his doorstep.

Judy Twigg: And Putin it reads a lot of history, especially during the pandemic when he's been kind of you know people went in Russia joke about him being a grandpa and the bunker you know he's he's been isolated down in this, you know covert free zone.

Judy Twigg: In his you know country House and outside Moscow that the circle of people that he sees has become incredibly small during the pandemic.

Judy Twigg: And it has been largely limited to conservative ideologues from the security services, who I think are feeding this.

Judy Twigg: tendency he already had to think about russia's historically larger geographic boundaries its historic ties to domination over here.

Judy Twigg: And you know so it's geopolitics and it's also Putin sense of Russia being aggrieved and wanting to right the wrongs of recent history by them sort of reuniting people in.

Judy Twigg: In Ukraine and Russia, one of the ways he's acted on this ever since the current Ukrainian president was elected in the middle of 2019 and there were some I think fears in Russia that this Ukrainian president might lean West a little bit too much.

Judy Twigg: that the current Ukrainian president, by the way, is ukraine's version of Jon Stewart he's a comedian I he was he was the star of a TV show a comedy sitcom in Ukraine called servant of the people that portrayed a comedian who, by.

Judy Twigg: A sequence of events ended up becoming President of the country and then it happened in real life so big but so that, but that is the lenski that President has tried to kind of.

Judy Twigg: find a middle ground that I think Putin has fear of leans too far West so not too long after zelinski can't became President, back in the middle of.

Judy Twigg: One of the things that we did was start to issue Russian passports to people living in the not Ukrainian control territories of those two provinces in the East and the donbass that we were talking about before.

Judy Twigg: So right now there are 720,000 people in those two regions who hold Russian passports that they didn't have three years ago.

Judy Twigg: So here's part of your pretext that Russia will use is, we just need to go in and protect our Russian citizens living in these areas, against violence perpetrated by.

Judy Twigg: Ukraine so part of the reason, who might be doing this now is because he's set the stage, he set the table for it with the passport ization of the conflict.

Nia Rodgers: Well, and he's got enough 700,000 is right, like you would need to build up that number, because if it was 10,000.

Nia Rodgers: it's a lot different.

Nia Rodgers: optics wise then if it's 700,000 then you're starting to look like, as we would say casually that's starting to be real money right like that's starting to actually be right.

Judy Twigg: And those aren't necessarily people who support Russia wish they lived under Russia control those are people who, by and large, are using those Russian passports to gain access to Russian social services yeah.

Judy Twigg: Ah, and and move freely across the border, I mean this.

Judy Twigg: This border between the gut the Ukrainian Government controlled and not government controlled areas in Milan is going down, yes, the two regions.

Judy Twigg: On that there are pensioners who need to travel back and forth across that border to pick up their pensions, their families divided in this border it it's just an insanely.

Judy Twigg: chaotic violent situation it.

Nia Rodgers: Is there going to be an invasion.

Judy Twigg: Now good question and nobody knows right.

Judy Twigg: So another interesting element to this is the degree to which the United States Government has been so aggressively and confidently predicting not only that there will be an innovation.

Judy Twigg: But the specific timing of it right, how extraordinary do you hear the by demonstration say basically we think they're going to do it on Wednesday right, you know Wednesday of this week was when everybody thought it was going to happen.

Judy Twigg: So a couple of reasons that I that publicly we have data that make us think that it if it's going to happen it's going to happen now.

Judy Twigg: One is that the ground is still frozen there and so tanks and every actually don't get bogged down in mud, which might happen as the ground starts to fall in the coming weeks and months.

Nia Rodgers: Yes, as Napoleon or Hitler.

Judy Twigg: Right, exactly, although.

Judy Twigg: military technology has, to some degree evolved beyond that not sure that's as huge factors that might have been The other thing was that giant beautiful full moon the other night so you've got like.

Judy Twigg: An operation.

Judy Twigg: that's that's another thing that i'm sure was determining the timing, but.

Judy Twigg: I also think that the vitamin illustration has a strategy here right so from my perspective, there is nobody.

Judy Twigg: I would rather see in charge of the American response to the situation right now.

Judy Twigg: Then, Joe Biden, and the people he has working with him and State Department and in the nsc and the Pentagon, this is an exquisitely experienced mature grown up team that Biden has handling this.

Judy Twigg: So I am confident that they know what they're doing when they take these extraordinary steps of trumpeting the immediacy of this invasion so.

Judy Twigg: It can only be the case that they've done the calculation and figured that the potential benefit of determine booting from taking this action and by calling them out on it in such specific ways.

Judy Twigg: The potential benefits of that strategy outweigh the reputational risk that's involved in in may be crying wolf right, you know.

Judy Twigg: Over and over again it's going to happen today it's going to happen tomorrow you you unite your Western Alliance around that threat for now.

Judy Twigg: But your Western Alliance is already pretty tenuous when you've got Germany that makes lots and lots of money from Russia and really doesn't want to put sanctions on that are any more intense than they already are.

Judy Twigg: You know, you risk framing that alliance around the edges, the more and more you continue to say it's going to happen any day it's going to happen tonight, and then it doesn't happen.

Judy Twigg: So yeah we're playing an incredibly dangerous cat and mouse game right now.

Nia Rodgers: Have you ever seen the movie footloose.

Judy Twigg: No, I have not.

Nia Rodgers: there's a there's a scene, where there's two people in tractors and they are playing chicken and tractors.

Nia Rodgers: And one of them, wants to jump off and his shoe LACE gets gets hung in the trend, so we can't so he has to keep going, I have to admit the deaths by fear.

Nia Rodgers: Is that there might be a certain point at which Putin feels like he has to go because he's made such a big deal of it to his people that backing down would be so deleterious to his to his position.

Nia Rodgers: I have to admit that that's my fear so giving him the out of saying we will we will talk, or we weren't negotiate I do like that that.

Nia Rodgers: The NATO powers are saying that let's let's negotiate something here to try to give him a place to not be I can't back down because, if I back down, then when I get home they're gonna kill me right, like.

Judy Twigg: So this is diplomacy, one on one right is that you give your opponent a face saving way of.

Nia Rodgers: doing what you want them to.

Aughie: Do.

Aughie: So what would be here, what would be a face, what what would be a face saving, if you will concession.

Aughie: For poor.

Judy Twigg: So that's the fundamental quandary we have here is that the face saving halfway out of this for Putin all appear to involve.

Judy Twigg: Meaningful harm to Ukraine security and sovereignty and subway.

Judy Twigg: So.

Nia Rodgers: holding on to those sections.

Nia Rodgers: right but not going further.

Nia Rodgers: or.

Judy Twigg: Something like that, so this gets us, I mean we're going to get this is more detail than anybody wants, but the the agreement that stopped the fighting back in 2014 2015 was a court, called the Minsk Agreement that was signed in Minsk Belarus.

Judy Twigg: between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany, and it was an intentionally fuzzily written a cord that basically gave some degree of independence or sovereignty to the non Ukrainian Government controlled parts of the donbass have done yet.

Judy Twigg: What Russia is saying right now is we want full implementation of the letter you know that it all dot all the i's cross all the t's of the misc awards which Russia reads as giving essentially full independence to those areas while still remaining in Ukraine.

Judy Twigg: Ah, so if you're saying in Kiev if you're the Ukrainian Government that's unacceptable to you because that's basically giving Russia.

Judy Twigg: Is an entry point into your own government.

Judy Twigg: right but it's a gigantic infringement on your sovereignty so as long as that's a line that Russia is holding, and that is aligned that Russia is holding.

Judy Twigg: That there's no face saving way out there, the demands that Russia is making to Washington in writing, are things like guarantees on paper that Ukraine will never join NATO that.

Judy Twigg: NATO membership will come off the table for any country that was ever part of the Soviet Union that NATO military forces will be removed from all countries that join NATO post 1997.

Judy Twigg: know why that's going to happen right.

Nia Rodgers: So not only that, but we don't believe in telling sovereign nations, whether they can join NATO or not like.

Judy Twigg: You so that's.

Nia Rodgers: Like that's entirely.

Nia Rodgers: we'd like you to be non democratic and we're like No, sorry but that's not how we're that's not how we're formed we don't go around telling Ukraine, whether they can join or not.

Judy Twigg: Yes, the most important point here the mantra in Ukraine is no decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine.

Judy Twigg: Right so Ukraine is not some miserable backwater of a place right Ukraine, especially since 2014 when they took dramatic steps forward toward.

Judy Twigg: toward integration with the West, you know, Ukraine is key of is one of my favorite cities in the world it's incredibly modern well developed an incredibly robust civil society.

Judy Twigg: Really young people working in tack and design and politics and it's just a marvelous place definitely oriented toward Western values Western principles.

Judy Twigg: yeah we shouldn't be talking over ukraine's head and telling them what to do, but russia's goal here fundamentally is remaking the entire global security, order and particularly the order that has governed European security, since the end of World War Two.

Judy Twigg: yeah full stop Russia wants to pull the rug out from under all that and remake it in a more Russia centric Russia friendly way.

Nia Rodgers: And we just have to say now.

Judy Twigg: Correct and be willing to fight for it it's worth fighting for yeah.

Aughie: One last question before we end this short episode Judy if you will.

Aughie: For those of us who are not particularly knowledgeable about.

Aughie: Russia West relations.

Aughie: Russia and the Ukraine.

Aughie: What should we be paying attention to in the upcoming days and weeks.

Aughie: in regards to this dispute.

Judy Twigg: So, two things one is to in terms of diplomacy watch for a couple of meetings that have been put on the table in the last couple of days on the American Secretary state and the Russian Foreign Minister are.

Judy Twigg: Are I think i've already scheduled a meeting for early next week, presumably that will take military action off the table until that conversation has taken place.

Judy Twigg: But also watch Putin and the President of Belarus, where an enormous number of these Russian forces are deployed on the Ukrainian border with fallers.

Judy Twigg: Putin and Russia is President are due to go observe some of these military exercises that are being conducted with these Russian troops on the border.

Judy Twigg: So it'll be interesting to see what plays out of a presidential presence in those exercises i'm also watching really closely those tick tock videos you talked about nia before we're going to ordinary people are showing tanks running through their neighborhoods and also a lot of other.

Judy Twigg: Open Source intelligence always I n G we call it an open source of intelligence that we're getting from people who are watching the Russian troop movements what we've seen over the last 24 to 48 hours our military medical units, including blood supplies being moved up to the front.

Judy Twigg: You know, repair vessels moving into some of the naval forces that Russia has deployed and there's a lot of hardware that's being brought up to the front lines that you generally don't bring up if all you're doing our training exercises.

Aughie: yeah I was about to say if all you're doing is running drills or scenarios you don't need a lot of those units right right hey because you're not planning for.

Nia Rodgers: Actual environments.

Aughie: Right arm okay etc you're not thinking that you're going to have to go ahead and fix a whole bunch of equipment.

Aughie: Because all you're doing or drills right right, but if you're thinking that it's going to be more than drills.

Aughie: Well then, of course, you're going to go ahead and need the medical units you're going to need the blood supply you're going to you're going to need the repair units right behind the quote unquote front line I mean you know this is fighting a war, one on one for okay.

Judy Twigg: And that level of combat readiness, you know where you're right at the edge it's logistically impossible and unbelievably expensive to maintain for a long time yeah so they they either are about to move or they desperately want us to think that they are yeah.

Nia Rodgers: Okay well Okay, thanks to you for making me not sleep for the next two weeks, while I worry about.

Judy Twigg: This go back to the no tactical nukes thing right it.

Nia Rodgers: Okay, good it.

Judy Twigg: virtually nobody who understands the situation is seriously, I mean obviously prepare for contingencies, obviously, but that's not good.

Nia Rodgers: But this is going to be a land war.

Judy Twigg: keeps me up at night.

Nia Rodgers: This is going to be a land war in those regions.

Nia Rodgers: And what we.

Nia Rodgers: need to do is plan to help support those people as they fight for basically for their lives and for their freedom because that's what that's what this is.

Judy Twigg: This is the future of the western liberal democratic order at stake, Ukraine is the frontline of western liberal democracy.

Nia Rodgers: Well, well, thank you so much for coming and giving us a short, we appreciate it we're a little longer than our normal shorts but you know what it's a more complicated thing than our normal shorts so we really appreciate you breaking it down for us.

Nia Rodgers: And I feel certain that, when we invade or if they excuse me if Russia if, when Russia invaded not was because we won't be doing that sorry Canada, I didn't mean to scare you.

Nia Rodgers: The.

Aughie: Word channeling boom.

Aughie: there.

Nia Rodgers: I know I was, I was like no Trudeau watch out.

Nia Rodgers: So if and when that happens where you come back and tell us.

Nia Rodgers: sort of what's going on on the ground.

Nia Rodgers: Okay, great Thank you so much okay.

Judy Twigg: good to see you.

Good.