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The Try Tank Podcast is about innovation and the church
Father Lorenzo Labrija talks with futurist Bob Johansen about uncertain times
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: From the tritank research institute. This is the tritank podcast. And welcome to the Try Tank Podcast. I'm, uh, Father Lorenzo Labrija. You know, we talk a lot about living in uncertain times, but what if the problem is that we're using the wrong language for the world we're actually living in? Whoa. Where's that coming from? Well, in today's episode, I'm joined by futurist Bob Johansen to explore what he calls a banny world. A world that is brittle, anxious, nonlinear, and often incomprehensible. Here's the core idea that frames our conversation. The future may no longer be fully understandable, but we still have to decide anyway. We talk about why certainty is more fragile than we think, why faith may actually be an advantage in times like these, and why the leaders who thrive won't be the ones who predict best, but the ones who learn faster than their environment changes. Now, about Bob Bob Johanson is a futurist, author, and longtime thought leader at the Institute for the Future, where he has spent decades helping organizations anticipate and prepare for change. He is the author of several influential books on leadership and the future, including his recent work on the Bani Framework, and he teaches futures thinking at the US Army War College. Bob's work focuses on how leaders can cultivate clarity, adaptability, and imagination in times of uncertainty. I am glad to call him a friend of the podcast and also just a really good guy. Bob Johansen on the podcast today.
Bob Johansen talks about the banny phenomenon in his new book
All right, and Bob Johansen, welcome back to the Tri Tank podcast.
>> Bob Johansen: Thanks so much.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: You know, just when I was getting. Learning more about living in a Vuca world, now I've got to change it. And. But, you know, when I first was reading about. In fact, you and I spoke about the banny when we first gathered for the first AI Summit in Seattle, and you mentioned. I'm like, wow, that actually makes a lot of sense. And then when I got your book and I was able to read more about it, I'm like, that is. I mean, talk about being spot on. You're naming exactly what so many people are feeling, what so many people are seeing. When systems that worked, uh, were but one day, and then the next day they don't work altogether. You're like, but it seems so strong. How could that be?
Bonnie Herzog: Framing the future is really important
So let's begin at the beginning. For those who may not be familiar with your work, uh, in the bani world and what you did, how did this come up and tell us what it is to live in a banny world?
>> Bob Johansen: Great. Well, let's start with the idea of just framing the future, because that's really where Bonnie begins and where Vuca used, uh, to be good enough. Uh, but the idea, and this is a lesson from more than 50 years of doing futures thinking. The idea is if you frame the future corre correctly, you'll be more future ready and your chances of having your preferred future will go up. But if you frame the future wrong, uh, you kind of fight the future and it's less likely you're going to be ready, more likely you're going to be surprised in a bad way. Um, so framing the future is really important, and it's one of the most important things that futurists do. And for quite a long time, Vuca was a good way to frame the future. Um, that term was actually coined at the Army War College where I now teach. And it was coined in the late 1950s, 1980s, rather late 1980s, right at the end of the Cold War period. Uh, and the idea was volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. And I learned about it when I was there for the first time just the week before 9 11. And Vuca was a really good way to frame the future. Uh, until. Until Vuca was no longer Vuca enough. You know, things were getting even more crazy. Um, and in 2018, my colleague.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: And let's just pause for a second there, when you, when you consider that we reached a point where volatile was no longer enough for. To capture where we're actually at, that that just says something about at the moment we're living in.
>> Bob Johansen: That's right. And it's appropriate, I think, to kind of interrupt and pause when you kind of realize, wow, you know, Vuca crazy. Uh, as it is, that wasn't Vuca enough. Wow, that's.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: That really is like, whoa. Wow, that just fascinating. I'm sorry, but go on. So that wasn't Vuca enough.
Bonney future no longer assumes we can understand what's going on outside world
>> Bob Johansen: So, uh, in 2018, my colleague Jermaine, Jermaine Cascio, who's the best scenario writer I've ever worked with, amazing futurist Shamay coined the term in 2018. And I was honestly quite skeptical about it. I talked with him a lot about it at the time. And to me, at the time, you know, Vuca was VUCA Enough. In 2018, I thought, um, but now just in the last year or so, uh, we've realized that, no, that's no longer the case. And there's been an important realization about Vuca that an assumption that was unexamined for the most part, and the assumption was, if Only we find the right expert or the right data, we'll be able to understand what's going on in the external world. And that was a reasonable assumption in the late 1980s when the coin term was coined. Um, but it no longer is. So the thing about Bonnie, which is the concept, the framing of brittle, anxious, non linear, incomprehensible. The framing of Bonney no longer assumes that we can understand what's going on in the external world, but we have to decide anyway. So it's a very different frame than what we had with Vuca, where we continuously search for the answer as if there was one, where now we're accepting that there may not be one. Um, if it turns out there is an aspect of the future that we can fully understand, we get extra credit. It's better not to assume that, uh, because if you assume that and then you can't find it, uh, then you're really in a hole, a credibility hole. So with the Bonnie future, we're no longer assuming that. But we are also not only giving people language to describe what they're experiencing because the Bonnie world is already here. It's just une, evenly distributed. But we're also giving him a language to flip it, to flip it positive.
So we've gone from brittle to anxious. Anxious anxiety is more future oriented
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: And before we get to that, let's, let's dive a little bit deeper into the bounty just so that we can, um, I'm a very concrete, uh, sort of thinking, but so let's go down each one of them and talk about some examples of what that might look like. So when we look at brittle, which you're talking about, as I mentioned earlier, something that looked like it was very sturdy, it would know this is always going to be this way. And then the next day is like, oh, it's gone. What happened? Talk to us about that. What's an example of something like that that we could put our hands around?
>> Bob Johansen: Sure. And I think we could begin with infrastructure examples that look strong, but um, you can also include more, ah, conceptual frameworks like perhaps democracy even. But let's start with, let's start with infrastructure. The Francis Scott Key Bridge across Baltimore harbor looked really strong until the cargo ship Dol rammed it. And then it didn't just break, it shattered, it shattered. And that's the challenging thing about brittle systems is they look strong, but they do not fail gracefully. They tend to shatter. So it's very hard, these things that looks like we can have faith in them and yet the faith, uh, withers.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: The moment that it just like falls apart, that is. And it's True, because one day it was there and it was perfect. You're right. The bridge is there as a bridge, has been there forever. We're not. It's like if we were thinking about, uh, something that, that we don't think about. The fact that it's just there is like, oh, you know, that, that the Brooklyn Bridge, it's always been there. Right. But if tomorrow it's not, it's just all of a sudden what a, um, and what it does, I think it also, it forces you to realize, I think this, which I think leads into the next one, which is anxious, is like, oh my goodness, uh, if that can collapse so quickly now I have fear because that means that just about everything that I think is stable or will be there tomorrow. That's not necessarily the case.
>> Bob Johansen: That's right. That's right. So anxious is something that I think we're all feeling more or less. Uh, and it seems like the kids are feeling it more than the adults even. And in the U.S. anyway, the research suggests that young men, young boys are feeling it particularly strong. But anxious is more future oriented. You know, depression is more past oriented. Anxious anxiety is more future oriented. And we're just feeling this sense of hopelessness, this sense of confusion, this sense of disorientation that's so common now. And the media we have, um, amplify that. It's, it's. They just kind of not only broadcast, but amplify that kind of sense of, sense of anxiety. So it's a, it's a tuned up, kind of tuned out, kind of tuned weird, uh, time that we're living in.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: So we've gone from brittle to anxious.
Think about supply chains, for example, linear problem solving
And next comes non linear, non linear.
>> Bob Johansen: So we're moving from a world where problem solving dominated. You know, you could kind of linear in a linear way. Think about supply chains, for example, uh, linear problem solving. And, and it worked, uh, in stable times. Now we have to essentially teach our brains new tricks because things don't happen in the same linear way. Our supply chains have become like webs. And, and of course, uh, in earlier times there was this tremendous incentive to make the supply chain as efficient as possible. And that's great if nothing goes wrong, but if something goes wrong, that speed, that efficiency, that linearity goes up for grabs and it's no longer resilient. Um, so it's really causing a shift in our mentality where the leaders that had the big advantage before were those who could think as fast as possible in a linear way. Um, but in a bonnie future where you don't know what's going to happen. It's increasingly chaotic. That can get you in a lot of trouble really fast.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: Yeah. Because you can no longer. I mean a great example of you mentioned a supply chain going uh, awry was during the pandemic when all of a sudden we had, we were running out of things all over the place. Because the supply chain, the just in time inventory. Well uh, it wasn't just in time anymore and things were just. And it, we saw how long it took to get that back up and running. And uh, the thing that worked one day and the next day it didn't. And look at what it did to us. Right?
>> Bob Johansen: Yeah, yeah, you're right. And even the phrase just in time is, is interesting. Um, and in a bonnie world, that's really not a good frame, correct?
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: No, absolutely not. It's because you have not a good right. You have to sort of assume it.
>> Bob Johansen: May work in a limited way, but if something goes wrong, you're not ready. You're not ready.
Robert Putnam argues we need an Abani future
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: And that brings us all the way in this one. I totally understand this one. Incomprehensible because there are moments when I wake up, I look at the news, I'm like well, I just cannot make sense world today. Yeah, it is incomprehensible to me.
>> Bob Johansen: Exactly. And this is a um, uh, realization that my goodness, I uh, just don't understand it. I just don't understand what's going on. And we still have to decide, we still have to live, we still have to make decisions. Even though there's things that are just puzzling. Um, and amplify that now with the fact that we're kind of an us versus them society. So a lot of this confus fusion is um, people of one group look at another group and say I don't understand why they're doing this. And there's all of that. And what it leads to is what Robert Putnam at Harvard calls bonding social capital, which is bonding with those that believe in the same way you do, but really bonding against, against those that are different. Uh, and so this is, you know, I've called it before the threshold of righteousness where you're, you not only believe you're right about something, but you believe the others are wrong. And, and that's a really different, different mentality. What Putnam argues is we need an Abani future. We need um, bridging social capital which, which not only bonds us with people who are like us, but gives us an open mindedness and an ability to engage with people who are different. Are different from us. Yeah, that is. Wow.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: I hadn't thought about putting work in this. Um, that makes a lot of sense. So before we get to. Because since the book is not entitled. So you've decided to be depressed today and, you know, just read the book, and the end of the world is coming, you do provide some very practical sort of positive side of things.
Vuca: Is it possible that the church could one day stop working
Um, but before we get there, I must ask a question, because our audience is church based. And particularly when you were talking about brittle and the illusion of strength and something that works so well one day just doesn't work the next day. Do you think it's possible that the church could be something like that? That one day the church is there, and then the next day it just isn't that the entire support for it. Something happens that it is the last straw and people just. Is it possible you think that even something like the church as a system could just one day stop working?
>> Bob Johansen: Um, yes. Uh, I think that is possible. And we've seen that in limited ways already. Church structures just don't work anymore. And I mean, think of, um, a kind of abandoned, physical church. If you've got a physical church that can no longer afford to be a church, and the physical, uh, church kind of goes away. Um, one time I got to spend a day in Rome, where I decided to spend the whole day at the Parthenon and just spend the day just reflecting on the Pantheon, rather. Sorry, the Pantheon. Uh, wrong country. Uh, and the Pantheon and the circularity of the Pantheon. And then I walked, uh, just a short distance to one of the first cathedrals built after the Pantheon. Uh, and it was so linear. That shift from circular to linear was so obvious just in the architecture. And so much of the architecture, either the Pantheon or the more linear cathedral structures that came later, those are. Those are kind of attempts to say, we're here forever, we're here forever. Um, we are beyond, beyond human frailties. And, you know, you have to realize, I think, and accept that terms like Vuca and Bonnie, there's elements of that that have always been here for us as humans. And given the fact, beginning, ah, from the fact that we all have to die at an uncertain time, you know, so that is, in a sense, Vuca, and it's even, in a sense, Bonnie. So, uh, this. These concepts aren't completely new. It's just now we're going beyond that. And I think you're right, Lorenzo, that there are cases where even these wonderful buildings and these wonderful concepts that we've built around faith, uh, and around belief, those are vulner too. Um, we don't know yet if they're brittle or not, but we certainly know they're being challenged.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: That is, that is absolutely true. We are living it each and every day. Uh, those of us who are in the church. And I think certainly you began by saying that this is a way of framing sort of the future. And I think this makes sense because if we were to frame the future as saying nothing will ever, ever, ever destroy the church. Right. That, that puts us in a mindset that says that we, well, you know, we're indestructible, so we're always going to be here and be there, there. It uh, sort of takes us back to the. We can always find an answer to something as opposed to what you were describing earlier, which is we're going to have to make some decisions when we don't actually know what everything that there is to know about this. And I think in some of these cases though, it's actually a beautiful opportunity for some faith to say, I think we're being faithful to our call to what we're meant to do. And yeah, we don't know how this ends. We don't happens on the other side of this, but we, we feel we're being faithful and we're doing the best with the information that we have.
>> Bob Johansen: Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, to me that's the difference between faith and extreme belief where faith, you're taking a meaningful leap into an uncertain future. So, so it's meaning based and you have a clarity, uh, of direction that you're committing to, but you also have lots of questions. And you're not denying the questions, you're accepting the questions. But it's that, that leap of faith that, that happens and it's different from extreme belief. I think extreme belief is saying we're here no matter what and we're ready no matter what. Well, we don't know. We, we don't fully know that. Um, but brittle, um, or excuse me, um, certainty, that kind of commitment, certainty and, and extreme belief, though those are brittle and, and brittle breaks faith, I think, accepts the questions and accepts the un and it. And it proceeds anyway. So I think in a real sense, people of faith are going to be better prepared for the bonnie future than those who have rigid frames of reference.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: And that's important because even within the, the church world there are those who are very, very certain. And I've heard you speak before about the difference between certainty and clarity. We can talk more about that, but I, I, those who are, no, I am certain this is the way it's meant to be are the ones who probably are, they're going to break. Uh, and when, when the stress gets to be too much versus those that are like, no, we're living in the mystery, we're doing the best we can and we're being faithful to it. But that also means that we can sort of bend a little bit more. Which I think is a beautiful entryway into the positive banny response to this. Yes.
In a brittle future, you want to be bendable within faith
So, so you've told us about the brittle, anxious, nonlinear and incomprehensible. It could also describe my life some days, way, uh, of looking at the world. So what. Talk to us about the positive banny.
>> Bob Johansen: So beginning with brittle, um, in a brittle future, you want to be bendable, but within this envelope, and let me just call it an envelope of faith, an envelope of clarity or faith, resilient clarity. So you want to be bendable within that. So you do have that directional frame. Um, but you're flexible, you're bendable within it. So it isn't bendable in the wishy washy sense. It's bendable within a resilient clarity story. Uh, and I think people of faith, um, are good storytellers. There's a good story that we can reflect and we can tell over and over again with that kind of enthusiasm. So that's what works well in brittle futures. But you, you, you, you can't have certainty. So this kind of future, this bonnie future will reward clarity and, and I believe it will reward faith as well. But it will punish, it will punish certainty because certainty is too brittle and certainty will, will break. So it's, it, it is a kind of delicate dilemma that we're facing in the bonnie future, really a series of dilemmas that can't be fully solved, but they can be improved a lot.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: Yeah. And we, we in the church are used to living in tensions between things, one and the other, one world and another. Right. That is sort of where we sort of, that's where we put our tests.
>> Bob Johansen: Some are. But if you say that this is true, how you define the church, you know, because, uh, there certainly is a lot of the church that is very rigid and very certainly, uh, based right now. And that's really dangerous.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: And what I'm understanding you, what I'm hearing you say in the bendable, it doesn't mean, for example, that we bend to the whim of society and say, well, no, we no longer accept that Jesus is the son of God. And we're going to go away with that. But rather we say no, that's still our creed. That's what we believe. But what we're bendable on is, does church have to be Sunday mornings at 10am versus can it be Thursday evenings when young people are more likely to attend? Or does it.
>> Bob Johansen: It.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: So we don't let go of our North Star, if you will, we don't let go of our values or that that's who we are. But everything else around it, the structure, if you will, that has been built around the belief, the that that Jesus came, what he, the good news that he gave us, we and humans built a whole structure around it. And for some people it has become so this is the exact, cannot be changed structure. And what I'm hearing from you say is that, that, well, that structure is very brittle. And for some people, they're going to be surprised someday when they wake up and it's no longer standing. Which by the way, Jesus said that a couple times. You see that, you see that beautiful temple over there that's been built for all, all these years is going to be torn down. And you know, so. Okay, so that's bendable.
>> Bob Johansen: Yeah. And, and the, the tricky part here, and this is where you and I probably differ too, is once you get in to this, this conversation about clarity, this conversation about direction, the conversation about these are the things that I'm basing my faith on. How do you describe that to others who don't have the same beliefs? And here's where language comes in. You know, I'm a humble futurist and I'm thinking very, um, around the world, future, back from at least 10 years ahead. Um, it, even though I went to divinity school, I've got the academic credential to be ordained. I don't use God language because I find it just as a barrier. So, um, when I'm describing the elements of faith, I do it without mentioning God, without mentioning Jesus, without mentioning specifics of God language. Now I'm open to others that do, and that's the way they describe it. But to me, as a humble futurist, I don't want to go there. So I think that's the challenge that we face and that I face too is, you know, how do you talk about faith without God? Language, Language. Um, and, and that's kind of up to each of us about how do we, how do we pursue the things we believe in, pursue the things we have faith in, but do it within a language that's robust enough to communicate with, with others who don't share that language.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: And I wonder if that language is relational. Right. I could, if you and I, over the years, we've. We now talk. We, we. We share. You know, this is what I'm thinking of, the future of tr. What, what do you think the future is going to bring? Uh, and we talk and we're able to talk, even though we might. I use God language and you don't use God language. Right. I think there's something about relations that allows language, even if it is quote unquote charged language, like saying God or Jesus, that to some people, but you don't hear it as I'm trying to convert you or I'm trying to do any of those. Right. Because we're in relationship with each other.
>> Bob Johansen: Right.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: And I wonder how we bring more of that relational sort of listening to each other's story, uh, to be that language in a world that, that needs to become more bendable. How do we do that? By being more in relationship with each other, with one another. And theoretically, that's what the church should be doing best, uh, on our, on our good days. So, so that's bendable versus brittle.
You want to acknowledge the anxiousness, the anxiety. What's the positive side
Which brings us to the second. So we were at anxious in the A and Banny. What's the positive side?
>> Bob Johansen: So the positive side here is you want to be attentive, to acknowledge the anxiousness, the anxiety. You want to be attentive, but with a kind of active empathy. And I would add, since the book's been out and we've been talking about it, the word we use a lot now is kindness. Because so much of, um, today's world, today's polarized world, it's very unkind. And I think the beginning of being attentive is to be kind, uh, to try to listen. Uh, this is a time to be listening to each other, not shouting at each other, and to listen with a sense of kindness, a sense of community, uh, to what the needs are, what other people are experiencing. And we talk in this, uh, chapter about Robert Rosen's book, uh, Just Enough Anxiety. And it's really a fascinating. It's one of my favorite book titles ever. Because anxiety itself is not bad. Um, it's chronic anxiety or debilitating anxiety or a kind of anxiety that kind of steeps you in anger. Those are the kinds of anxiety that are bad or dangerous. Um, but anxiety itself isn't bad. You know, I used to play basketball. If I still give a lot of talks to big audiences, if I'm not a little Anxious before a big talk or before a big game, I'm not paying attention. You know, I want to be, I want to have an edge, uh, before I go on. I want to have butterflies, if you will, uh, before I go into a big game or a big talk. Um, but I don't want to be debilitated by it to the point where it makes me self conscious or, or it affects my performance. And that's what we're running into now in the Bonnie future is a sense of chronic anxiety and a sense of kind of lacking a kind of a need for hope. And you know, I'm really optimistic about kids nowadays, about young people. If, if they have hope, if they don't have hope, then they become at risk of anxiety, depression, suicide, extreme religions, extreme politics.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: Uh, that's actually a good insight because the church is I would imagine, a really, really good place to give people hope. That even when things seem uh, very incomprehensible and uncertain outside, you know, this is your game. I mean what you're describing actually is a great opportunity for the church. This, this is the new golden age of the church that you're describing here. Because think about it. Bendable. As long as we have what we find that our core to be our, our, our clarity. That's we can bend with all the other things that's true that being attentive and being kind. Another word for that might be uh, that we're empathetic. Right.
>> Bob Johansen: Which is empathetic I think is good.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: Yeah, yeah. That, that's literally what the church has been teaching as part of the good news for a really, really long time. So that's great.
I'm working mostly now with CEOs and senior executive groups at big companies
So, and that brings us to non linear in our banny.
>> Bob Johansen: So nonlinear means essentially to flip that you want to teach your brain new tricks. Uh, so we call that neuro flexible or sometimes the um, the neuroscientists call this neuroplastic. But it's basically teaching your brains new tricks. And here we're, we're really fortunate because there is a great history of improvisation. That's just what we need. So I'm working mostly now with CEOs and senior executive groups largely at big companies, but also some non profits. Pretty much all the big groups that I'm working with. The uh, the best of the groups, pretty much all of them are also doing improv training. And we, we work with um, the Second City group in Chicago. Okay, yeah.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: Familiar with them.
>> Bob Johansen: Saturday Night Live. They've now got a, a corporate improv group group. Uh, and there's lots of these groups that are comedy, improv, theatrical improv. The Harvard folks talk about it as yes and kind of improv. Basically the techniques of improv are proven. Uh, and um, they're mind stretching. And that's what we have to be as we approach this world. We have to be neuro. Flexible and improv is a really, really cool way to do that.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: And, and for those of us in the theological realm, there is actually a book written by Sam Wells, theologian Sam Wells, very well known, one of the most prolific uh, in the, in the world right now. And he wrote a book called Improvisation that talks exactly about that. Uh, look at that, it's a, I just love it. How worlds just converge together. And again you're just pointing out to a beautiful sort of. Because all of a sudden if we can call being neuroflexible, it's then it's like wow, this is, we really are pointing. This banning world is, looks like a, a great world for the opportunity for the church.
Interconnection is key to predicting the future, says futurist David Frum
And which brings us to the last part. Incomprehensible again most of my days. Um, let's flip that one around.
>> Bob Johansen: So this is all about um, interconnection because you, you want to, to engage in a world you really don't understand. You've got to look at as many different perspectives as you can and you know, traditional futures work. And again I grew up with this. I've been a professional futurist for 50 years now and the Institute for the Futures, the longest running futures think tank in the world now in Silicon Valley. And our group was a spin off of RAND and nsri. Um, and it was really expert opinion aggregation. That was what we were grounded in. We were the group that invented the Delphi technique and the cross impact matrix analysis and all based on um, the frame, the assumption that you could if not predict, you could at least forecast accurately the future if only you found the right expert. And expertise of course was defined in the days of kind of post World War. It was defined as science PhDs, uh, you know, recognized expertise. Um, well it turns out in the bonnie future, um, recognized expertise is not necessarily the best source of anticipating the future. And um, we ourselves at the Institute have become skeptical about only using expertise, only using the kind of celebrities of the day because the celebrities get rewarded for giving the same talk over and over again. Uh, and they not be the best source about what's next. So we're very cautious in our expert panels now to have people who are either not yet or don't want to be celebrities because Celebrity can get in the way of expertise. So in this case, you want to be interconnected, but you have to ask the question, who might know what this is about and what are the right sources of expertise? And they may be unusual to figure out what's going on. And. And you may not even be able to fully figure it out. We, we tell this story in. In the chapter on this, uh, of the Black Swan book. And, you know, Black Swan, very popular book. Uh, kind of popular futurism. Uh, and it had some value because it introduced the idea of, well, things that don't fit. Um, but the metaphor turns out it was wrong. It was not a good metaphor because, uh, there really were black swans. But the only people who knew about them were the aboriginal people in Australia. So it wasn't the obvious experts. And yeah, they were unusual, but they weren't unprecedented. They were really there. They were just asking the wrong people. So you have to figure out what are the people that you want to ask, uh, what's the source of expertise? And interconnection is so important. And here goes back to, um, another book that I wrote during the COVID 19 period called Full Spectrum Thinking, that talks about thinking across gradients of possibility instead of within traditional categories or traditional labels.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: And I think that there again, right. When you're talking about being interconnected, not only, uh, I see more and more work being done across denominational borders, which is great. Um, but I also think that the church is particularly well suited here because just we have so many places and so many different varieties within the church. Uh, unless you're a church that only sees one way, if you're not lockstep, you. You don't sort of go. This, uh, is more, uh. I'm talking more about the fact that we can reach out. And for example, the Episcopal Church, we have churches from Alaska, uh, all the way to Taiwan to Central America. And then, so it just moves around and we can see all that. That. But even beyond that, I think it's also related to the attentive part that you were talking about earlier. Because in order for me to be curious and interconnected and asking the questions like who might know this? I have to a, be willing to talk to people that I might not agree with.
>> Bob Johansen: Right.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: I have to be able to have a conversation with someone. And this happens all the time, by the way, uh, the Episcopal Church, one of the more liberal denominations, uh, out there, but we work with groups. We're. We're doing some work now with. On AI where we work with some people that, that outside of the artificial intelligence issue we have very little in common theologically. But nevertheless on this issue we can talk and we can agree on it and so we do so. Right. And that's part of that interconnectedness you're talking about, which I think the church is, is, is. I think this is, this is a good future for the church where we, if we can be bendable, attentive, neuro, flexible and interconnected and lean into those that skill sets. So I have sort of a, uh, sort of. It's not a, um. I hope it doesn't put you on the spot. But you advocate in uh, all of our conversations you've always talked about the future back thinking where we're. And you mentioned earlier that you live In a world 10 years ahead, you're all over the world, uh, so jumping 10 years ahead and working backwards. So if we were to look 10 years into the future of the spiritual community and in on. I am on purpose not saying the church, but rather the spiritual community, what is sort of the one non linear surprise that you might think that we're not ready or we're not preparing for today?
>> Bob Johansen: Um, do you mean an external factor or could be, or it could be internal as well.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: Just something that we're not preparing for today that in the next two years you think will have an impact in communities of faith?
>> Bob Johansen: M. Um, I think the background that we have, communities of faith have, people of faith have that background is going to be more accepted uh, ten years from now. Um, and there's going to be more responsibility assigned to that. So I think the idea of faith enhanced leadership will be elevated and people who have that background will have increased responsibility uh, to do things. Now maybe the surprise out of that is we're all going to be augmented. So um, you know, you and I both use generative AI. I've nicknamed my agent Stretch because it helps me stretch my thinking. Um, so if I'm going to be active 10 years from now, I'm going to have to be augmented partly because of my age, but also so just because that's where all humans are going to be is we're all going to have to be augmented in some way and that notion of generative AI will apply in the same sense. You know, the famous um, psychoanalyst, uh, Erik Erickson referred to generativity as the stage in adult life where we move beyond our isolated selves and we think about the next generation, uh, maybe through our kids, but maybe through just the next generation, whether or not they're our immediate family. That's what he called generativity. I find it really synchronistic that, um, generative AI and generativity use the same root word.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: That is interesting.
>> Bob Johansen: And that's what I think will be the big surprise for people of faith and people in the church is we're all going to be augmented. We're all going to be assumed, um, to have some insight into this, um, incomprehensible Bonnie future. And we're going to all be called upon to be players in that space. That kind of, uh. So I don't know. What do you call that? Augmented spirituality, but it definitely augmented faith. Faith, uh, enhanced leadership. I don't know. Again, the language is uncertain, but I think that's where we're going to be playing in a way that it's really hard to anticipate right now.
The anxiety of people that AI will somehow replace that human connection
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: Um, which brings me to another question, because every time I talk about AI uh, inevitably I will get an email or I will get someone telling me that, uh, the one thing that the church should be always talking about is that human connection. Because that is what ministry is. Right? Which is. Which is great. But, uh, so, so I, I just hear the anxiety going back to that. The anxiety of people that AI will somehow replace that human connection. So if, if you were to give advice to, to those who are anxious out there, to the, to the pastors, priests who are out there in this banny world, what is the one thing that a human pastor can do that AI will never be able to do?
>> Bob Johansen: Um, you know, there's kind of a whole profile of things there. And I don't use the word artificial intell. I, I don't want to get into that sort of replacement story. Uh, I think that's been overemphasized and it's overly simplistic. I refer to it as augmented intelligence with the human in the center. So, you know, the book that, uh, Jeremy and Gabe and I wrote, um, is. Is really talking about new future leadership skills that use generative AI to humanize leadership. To humanize leadership. So to me, it's not about replacement. There'll be some of that, but that's not the big story. The big story is humans and computers doing things that have never, never been done before. So it's, it's way too early and way too rigid and way too certain to say, oh, AI is too negative. I'm not going to do anything with it. If you check out of this game, you're checking out of a really big game game. A really Big game. So you can't check out of it unless you just want to isolate yourself from the next generation of faith, the next generation of the future, the next generation of society. You got to be in this game. But it's an augmented game. It's how do you want to be augmented? And you remain in the center. But it's an art more than it's a science or an art, an addition to a science and a technology. But you've got to learn how to have those conversations. This all comes to life in conversation. Uh, it's not a traditional digital tool. It's unlike anything I've ever seen in my 50 years of doing this.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: And again I think that just points back to relational.
>> Bob Johansen: Relational. It's relational but you've got now some non human relationships and I think that.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: That could help, that could actually be helpful. If I were an active ministry a in a parish, I would figure out how can I give more of the small menial tasks that I'm sort of spending time on to, to this machine that this tool that can do it for me so that I can spend more time with my parishioners building on those relationships. I would be looking at it.
>> Bob Johansen: I think that's true. And um, that's not the big story. You know, getting uh, offloading menial stuff is fine and you should do it but the big thing is having deep conversations about meaning making. And it's true that I think in person relationships humans will always have an advantage. Uh, curation of ideas will always have an advantage. The kind of empathy will always have an advantage. Although Gen AI can really help boost your empathy by doing scenarios from other points of view. So I think there'll always be things that humans do better. Um, but it's going to get increasingly hard to isolate the things that humans do alone without augmentation because we're, we're all going to be deeply augmented one way, one way or another. Um, if you want to stay in the edge of the game, uh, if you want to check out, that's a whole other story. And I'm not completely against that. Um, you know, but, but everybody can't do that.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: We can't all check out. No, that, it's a good insight site and I think it, it makes sense. And, and I'm um, I'm probably one of the biggest proponents in the church right now saying that we, we must not only take advantage of this opportunity but also take advantage of being in the conversation as it is being developed so that we can be the, the Moral conscious voice and remind these corporations that seem to be only focused on making dollars that there are people, right? That, that this is all about people. And how do we.
Father Lorenzo Labrija welcomes Bob Johansson to Tri Tank podcast
So, so Bob, is always a wonderful conversation with you. The name of the book, Navigating the Age of Chaos, A sense making guide to a Banny World that doesn't make sense. Bob Johansson, along with, how do you say his name?
>> Bob Johansen: Jamais Jamae Cascio. And I wanted also to mention our co author Angela Williams, who's the CEO of um, United Way Worldwide. And Angela helped us find on the ground examples from all around the world, uh, and how to apply these things. So you know, it was William Gibson, the science fiction writer who said the future is already here. It's just unevenly distributed and in the bonnie future it's, it's already here. It's just not a term that's yet used very much in the US or in Western Europe. But it's used all around the world and other places and it will be used here. I think works. We're, we're seeing now that the Bonnie future is spreading and that uh, this is a much more accurate way to frame what we're about to experience.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: And do you think, uh, final question. You think you're going to go back to the War College and tell them about Banny and say you're hookah world?
>> Bob Johansen: Yeah, I already have. I've proposed that they shift their language and the um, the heads of the War College got advanced copies of the book. I use it in the sessions. I get the new three star generals on their first week in Washington and they read this book as well. There we go. They've got a lot of other stuff going on.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: Just, just a couple of things and.
>> Bob Johansen: I'm not sure this is the time to change the language, but we'll see.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: Indeed. Bob Johansson, always a pleasure. Thank you very much for being with us today.
>> Bob Johansen: Yes, thank you.
>> Father Lorenz Lebrija: Thanks for listening. Please subscribe and be sure to leave a review. To learn more About Try Tank, visit tritank.org be sure to sign up for our monthly newsletter where you can keep up with all of our experiments. The Tri Tank podcast is a production of Try Tank in association with Resonate Media. Try Tank is a joint venture between Virginia Theological Seminary and General Theological Seminary Seminary. Again, thanks for joining us. I'm, um, Father Lorenzo Labrija. Until next time, May God bless you.