CropGPT - Coffee

The weekly report on the global Coffee market for week 49. Brought to you by CropGPT

Show Notes

This episode covers the latest developments in the global coffee market.
  • Vietnam continues to dominate the robusta market, with the 2025 harvest projected at 1.76 million tons, a 10% year-over-year increase and the highest output in four years. Favorable weather conditions supported this growth, and with only 10% of the harvest completed, expectations are high for further supply increases. Coffee exports for the first eleven months rose by 13.4%, reaching $7.88 billion, reinforcing Vietnam’s strong market position and contributing to persistent downward price pressures.
  • Brazil presents a mixed outlook. While 2026–27 projections forecast a 29% year-over-year increase in total coffee production to 70.7 million bags, current season estimates have been revised downward to 55.2 million bags due to rainfall deficits in Minas Gerais, potentially affecting arabica cherry and flowering development. Nevertheless, the rollback of U.S. tariffs and the European Union’s delay of its deforestation regulation are expected to improve export competitiveness and market stability.
  • Arabica prices remain under limited support. Although tighter inventories and adverse weather in Brazil offered temporary price stabilization, they were insufficient to counterbalance rising supply expectations from both Vietnam and Brazil. The deferral of EU environmental trade regulations also helped maintain robusta flow from Southeast Asia, preventing major disruptions in global supply.
  • The broader coffee market continues to experience bearish sentiment, with robust supply forecasts outweighing demand recovery. Regulatory shifts, weather volatility, and evolving export policies remain key factors influencing the current and future landscape of coffee trade.

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Speaker 1:

Welcome to the weekly summary of the global coffee market for 12/07/2025. For more information on any aspect of this report, please visit the CropGPT website for far more detailed reporting and analysis. Vietnam remains a pivotal player in the global robusta coffee market. For the season, Vietnam's harvesting reached swift progress, with an expected yield of 1,760,000 tons, marking the highest in four years. This represents a 10% year on year growth, attributed to favorable weather conditions.

Speaker 1:

Such robust performance, as 10% of the harvest is completed, significantly bolsters the global supply, maintaining bearish price pressures on Robusta coffee. Continuous export enhancements confirm this supply trend, with coffee exports in the first eleven months rising by 13.4%, reaching a valuation of $7,880,000,000 In Brazil, the coffee sector shows a mixed scenario with significant upcoming production levels but reduced current outputs. Stonex forecasts the 2026 TOT-twenty seven coffee output at 70,700,000 bags, a substantial 29% increase from the previous year, primarily due to favorable conditions for Arabica. However, for the 2025 season, Konab adjusted Brazil's total production downwards to 55,200,000 bags. Weather concerns in Minas Gerais, with only 39% of average rainfall, might affect the key developmental stages of cherry and flowering of the Arabica variant.

Speaker 1:

Despite these climatic challenges, the rollback in U. S. Tariffs is expected to boost the competitiveness of Brazilian coffee exports. The deferral of the European Union's deforestation law, which relaxes trade regulations concerning compliance from coffee producing regions with environmental challenges, has preserved market fluidity. This regulatory postponement likely contributes to sustaining robusta dominant blends from Southeast Asia in the European market, further reinforcing the global coffee supply chain against potential disruptions.

Speaker 1:

Arabica coffee prices experienced limited support due to tighter inventories and adverse weather in Brazil, yet these factors were not strong enough to counteract influences from robust global supply projections and normalize trade flows post regulatory adjustments in the European Union. The bearish sentiment is further corroborated by robust production forecasts from Vietnam and an anticipated strong crop yield in Brazil for the coming seasons. Despite fluctuations in futures prices and weather induced sporadic concerns, the overarching global coffee market remains under pressure from high supply levels, set against recovering but cautious demand scenarios, navigating through evolving trade and environmental regulatory frameworks. Remember, our CropGPT site contains far more details and reports about the coffee market, including crop health reports, twenty years of weather data, and even pricing data and earning call analysis. This podcast is just a few selected highlights for the week.