Line Your Own Pockets

Dave discusses a turning point in his trading career when he realized his trading system wasn't as systematic as he thought. His discretion had drifted over time, changing how he approached trading from that point forward.

Creators & Guests

Host
Dave Mabe
Host
Michael Nauss

What is Line Your Own Pockets?

Create your own trading strategies with edge.

Michael:

Okay, everyone. Welcome back to another episode of align your own pockets with myself and my co host, Dave. This episode, we're gonna talk about strategy drift. We're gonna first define it because I think that's important for everyone, and talk about how sometimes we could think we're doing something, and turns out we're doing something completely different and and ways to to focus that in. So this is an interesting topic I I'm really excited for because, I like the topics that while we're talking about what to talk about, I don't really have anything that comes to the top of my head.

Michael:

I think they make for cooler conversations as we go. So, Dave, I'm gonna let you lead this one off with, just telling people what strategy drift is just to get started.

Dave:

Okay. So I was reminded of this topic, a few days ago. I was on the phone with a client, and we were talking about a strategy. And that reminded me of this exact scenario that happened to me probably 2010, 2011, somewhere in that time period. So I was trading a strategy not automatically, but it was certainly a trading system.

Dave:

Right? I was trading it systematically. I was journaling those trades every day. It was doing well. But I would I was looking for a very specific pattern, so it may as well have been systematic, system or so I thought.

Dave:

And in the course of reviewing my journal, which I do very often, I'll look at trades, charts from my journal as I, you know, make these trades, I decided to go back and look at maybe it was probably 6 months earlier at some of the trades I made in the same system.

Michael:

Mhmm.

Dave:

And in doing that, you know, so much you know, enough time had gone by where what I noticed, and it was very, very subtle. But I remember looking at a specific trade and thinking, there's no way I would make that trade today. And that was kind of shocking to me. Here I was, what I thought I would have put big money on the fact that I was doing the same thing every day.

Michael:

Mhmm.

Dave:

But something happened over the course of time that significantly changed what I was doing in a way that I sort of completely I was completely unaware of. And it was subtle. Like, it wasn't a huge big thing, but it was enough to get my attention. And it sort of it sort of shook the way I was thinking about my trading, like, sort of my whole world view because I was making decisions based on me being pretty systematic, sort of robotic in what I was doing. But here it was, this something had crept in that I was completely unaware of, And it really made me take a step back and think, what the heck is going on here?

Dave:

What am I what am I doing? And and I I have to I had to do something about it.

Michael:

So what's interesting is is when you noticed this difference, was it one thing that just kinda switched one time, or was it more like the whole boiling the frog alive where you were changing something very slightly throughout a long period of time, and then it looked different when you were looking back 6 months later?

Dave:

It was it it was I I don't even know if I can pinpoint exactly what it was about this trade that was different. But I could tell that something had changed. And I couldn't and I looked closer. I couldn't really put my finger on it, but I could tell for certain that something had changed in a way that I didn't intend to change. I didn't wake up and say, okay.

Dave:

I'm gonna start doing these differently. But something had changed, and that really changed the way I was thinking about this strategy.

Michael:

And what was the what was the result different? Right? Was the results significantly worse than they were before? Were they kind of on par with? Or

Dave:

No. They were on par. They they were definitely on par. So it wasn't like I was you know, the strategy was falling apart. It was sort of, and that's why I think I was so shocked by it is that I thought things were going about the same as before.

Dave:

Like, everything was roughly the same. But here was this subtle thing. Like, I I was certain that I would not take the kinds of trades I was taking back 6 months ago today or at the time, you know, in 2010. So it was enough to really get my attention and really take a step back and think, I had to get more systematic here. And I thought I was.

Dave:

I thought I was pretty much robotic in what I was doing.

Michael:

But I

Dave:

but it turned out I wasn't.

Michael:

Is that a system that eventually got migrated into your more current trading style of just being completely, automated and systematized? Or is it is it something that when you kind of abandon that past life got got left behind? Like, were you able to turn what you were doing into, something that you could kinda automate going forward?

Dave:

Yeah. So here's here's how I address this. You know, it wasn't like my hair was on fire or, you know, not an emergency or anything. So but it did sort of shake me to my core a bit and really kind of really motivated me to think of additional or an additional approach here. And what I did was, I was like, okay.

Dave:

I I was not doing any back testing at the time. And the people I was interacting with you know, back then, there was a really vibrant blogosphere, you know, trading blogosphere. So you there was a lot of interaction. And the people I was talking with really pooh poohed backtesting. They were yeah.

Dave:

I remember bringing it up with, a couple people, and they're like, oh, yeah. I've given it a try before. It's just not you know, it just doesn't reflect reality. I just don't see much value in it. And I was like, really?

Dave:

Well, okay. I mean, it seems like I would really dig it, but, hey. You know, I trusted this person. I I just put it off for a while. But this was the the motivation for me to really dig into it.

Dave:

So I set out to create a back test for this system that I was trading essentially manually. Like I said, systematically, but,

Michael:

yeah,

Dave:

manually. So I thought, okay. Well, you know, I do have some discretion in this system. There's, like, you know, I don't take every trade, and I and I thought I had some value I provided given my experience that was, you know, accumulating over time.

Michael:

Mhmm.

Dave:

And, yeah, you know, I I can't possibly create some code that would do better than what I do. So it's not gonna be as good as what I'm doing now, but maybe there's something I can learn. Even if it doesn't pan out, I'll learn something, and I'll be able to apply it in the future somehow. So even if so I had low expectations. So and I knew what I was doing wasn't super complex.

Dave:

I think I was pretty sure I could create a backtest for it. So I did. I created a backtest, ran it, exported the trades to Excel, and right away, I I I turned on the auto filter thing in Excel and looked at some fields.

Michael:

Mhmm.

Dave:

Like, right away, I found something that was better than what I was doing. I it was and, you know, it was exhilarating, but kind of humbling at the same time. Right? Here I was, I thought I was I thought I had this magical discretion, you know, that is earned over time trading the markets day in and day out. Can't quite possibly be quantified, you know, that but the very first back test I created was an improvement on what I was doing.

Dave:

I could see that very clearly in the data. So, I mean, that was kind of earth shattering for me. Here, what I had been told, what I had learned around the blogosphere, what these people were telling me that I trusted was actually false. Or or at least for me, it was completely false.

Michael:

I think that's the big thing too for for you. Right? And it it kind of, it shows the the difference between different traders. Right? That that particular trader may have either, you know, back tested things incorrectly or or maybe for their style level of discretion is is needed or whatever it is.

Michael:

But, you know, that's that's the kind of thing that I want to highlight where it's not you don't listen to anyone, but you listen to them and then you kind of make sure that you and I think this is probably something you learn too. You add your own level on top of it. You go, okay. They're saying back testing sucks, but maybe it's because either the way they do it or or, you know, maybe it's because of their particular style or whatever it is that, yes, back testing's not the move. But for me, you know, and for for what I do, maybe it is.

Michael:

So maybe I'm gonna take that person's opinion and and keep in the back of my mind, but just kinda trudge on with what I was thinking of doing anyway.

Dave:

Probably was a very good approach for me to take here. And I think there's a couple things that listeners might take away here. One is to sort of ignore what other people say. Like you said, like, have your own process

Michael:

Mhmm.

Dave:

Or determining if something is worth doing or not. We've talked about that before on previous episodes, you know, of strategies for coming up with your own ideas, how to test those, and sort of refining your BS detector over time

Michael:

Mhmm.

Dave:

Getting that better and better. Yep. The other thing that I think is was noteworthy here is I had low expectations going into this. So I was embarking on this. It was a pretty daunting project.

Dave:

I've never never at that point, I'd never done any backtesting before. I didn't have high hopes that was gonna you know, the bar was reasonable. I had a I had reasonable expectations for what I was doing. And I knew that even if it, quote, unquote, failed, there was still a bunch of stuff I was gonna learn from it and then I could apply in the future. So I think that's I think that's important when you know, like we talked about last week, figuring out what to work on.

Dave:

Yeah. If something is gonna have an effect on your process, that's gonna be really valuable and can pay off in the future. Even if it doesn't result in a, you know, whiz bang system that that that makes a lot of money right now, that'll pay off forever if you make a, you know, a significant improvement in your workflow.

Michael:

And we we've talked about that a few times that even if you don't end up being a systematic or an automated trader, just the ability to have data and look at data and run data, that that's hugely, you know, your example of just going into Excel and and changing one filter value that occurred there and going, holy crap. Right? If I had done I had done that as well. And that that was kind of, I can't remember if I've talked about it here before, but it was, you know, my one of my initial journeys into becoming systematic was simply writing down what the p and l that I was having at the end of every day and then what a very basic system that I came up with in in trade ideas that I wasn't even back testing. It was just an alert window.

Michael:

What that would have done if I had just followed that and seeing that difference is enough to kinda get you, down that road. Now even if I didn't make the the the leap or the realization that, hey. I should just systematize, what I'm doing, The the fact that it's like, okay. Well, what is the difference? You you get to you get to dive in from there.

Michael:

So when it comes to this, it seems like the ultimate solution to dealing with this, the the the drift that you were talking about where things change over time is is full automation. But, you know, I know there's gonna be some people that watch this that are gonna be really into full automation. There's gonna be some people that are gonna watch this that are gonna be semi systematic, right, where they've got, you know, maybe systems for finding names and discretion on on when to enter, which is kind of a little bit more of where I sit. What would you say to those people who aren't gonna go all in on how to avoid this type of this type of a drift? Right?

Michael:

If you're someone who yeah. You're in that semi systematic camp, but you wanna make sure that you're not doing what happened to you where you look back 6 months later and your trading looks completely different. Is it just more frequent checking of of what it looks like? Is it p and l comparisons? What what do you think a good metric to avoid that is?

Dave:

I like what you're saying about using an alert window or having some reference. Doesn't have to be a fully automated back test, but some reference, some sort of, you know, a rudder to figure out if you're going in the right direction or going in the direction that you at least think you're going.

Michael:

Mhmm.

Dave:

Having a reference is really important that you don't drift. And over time, this is sort of what this showed me is even when I like I said, I would have bet a large amount of money that there was no difference in what I was doing. And yet here I could see pretty plainly that that was just not the case. So, you know, people change over time. You have different moods.

Dave:

I mean, we go through different stages of life, and things change in ways that maybe it's it's hard to see in the moment.

Michael:

It's, I I love that, and it's something that I keep telling people about having that that frame of reference is so important to traders. And I think anybody who deals with anything that's kind of probabilistic in nature. Right? Where the it's very easy to look at your P and L at the end of the day and see that you make money or for a swing trader like myself at the end of the month or quarter and say, oh, I made money. Therefore, what I did was good.

Michael:

It's obviously not the case. Right? You could do the joke I always make is that I could come in every morning and slam my forehead on the keyboard and I could make $20. That's right. It doesn't mean that that was a smart thing to do or it's repeatable in nature.

Michael:

So I always like and I tell people and I encourage people to back test to, again, have something to compare against. Right? If your system is a simple I don't know. Whatever type system. Right?

Michael:

I'm gonna buy the 200 day moving average, right, and and go from there. And you develop a a system that has some edge in the market that does that. Having the back test that goes back to saying something simple like, okay. This is my p and l, and then this is my p and l if I had just followed the system. That's a good comparison to make because if you're, you know, putting in a level of discretion, you're semi systematic, just being able to say, okay.

Michael:

Well, the system lost money today, and I lost an equal amount or less, then great. That's a good day. Or the system made money today, and I made an equal amount or more. Great. That that does well.

Michael:

Where having that ability to compare not to a end of whether you made money or lost money, but having a system to compare to, this is what the system did, this is what I did, you know, who did better, that to me, that's the ticket. It's because over the long run, you'll be able to make sure you're going in the right direction. So then if as long as the equity curve of the underlying system's doing well and you're as long as you're following that to some degree, then it means you're doing well. So, like, with me, what happened was there was, like, just a pure divergence from if I had just sat there and done you know, the alert came through and I took the trade as I have it kinda modeled in my mind and did nothing else, then there was probably a 2 week period where I would have made way more money and been way less stressed and way less thinking involved of just following the system. That could be, be the ticket, but it could also be that the system maybe broke even or lost during that 2 week period, but I would have lost less, then, well, then maybe I should be involved.

Michael:

So, yeah, having that point of reference in something that's probabilistic in nature, I think, is one of the most important things that you can do.

Dave:

Yeah. The so the what you're describing there, there there's a term for it in poker world, and that's, you know, if you're too focused on your p and l, that's results focused. You wanna be not results oriented. You wanna be process oriented. So if you're too focused on your results, you know, you're gonna you know, at the end of the day, you're gonna see that you made money, and you're gonna think you did well.

Dave:

But often, those high you know, that that p and l hides a lot of details that are really valuable to you, especially when you make a mistake and you end up making money.

Michael:

That

Dave:

can just reinforce all sorts of bad behavior that, know, accumulates over time. So it's really be process oriented. Don't be results oriented.

Michael:

Well and it I think the the easiest example of that is something that we've probably all done where you end up slipping into some sort of Martingale related system. Right? You're you take a trade, it goes against you, you buy more, it goes against you, you buy more. And the the issue with that is that 90% of the time that might work out for you. Right?

Michael:

So you end up getting this this idea that, okay. Well, I'm right. Look at how many times I'm right. I saved myself from losing money by looking at that p and l. And as we know with any kind of, doubling down or a Martingale related system, eventually, it goes bust.

Michael:

It just it's it's it's a mathematical certainty that at some point, you'll you'll implode. So, again, having that frame of reference to saying, you know, this is what the strategy should have done, and this is what I did is is an amazing way to kind of bridge that gap. Now, again, the ultimate solution to this is to go fully systematic where you just simply because then if if there is a difference between you and your system, then you know it's some sort of flaw in the system. You're not calculating commissions or spreads or or liquidity or whatever correctly. But for the people who aren't willing now or or really aren't willing, period, to go that whole direction, then again, I I think just having this frame of references is going to be the thing that's gonna help with that strategy drift the most.

Michael:

And then, checking more more frequently. Right? You should be comparing yourself if it's a day trading system. The simplest thing that I think you can do is the next day or whenever your system updates, you run the back test. The back test said yesterday, you should have done this, this, this, and this, and then you compare that to what actually happened and and see how how similar that is.

Michael:

If it's a swing trading system, maybe it's weekly. If it's a investment system, maybe it's quarterly. But, frequent enough that, the amount of time that you're making inputs is the amount of time that you're checking out that those inputs had had the desired result.

Dave:

Yeah. And one way to think about this is, you know, we're talking about, fully automated and versus discretionary. There's a whole range of in between those 2. But think about what you do on your trading day. Think about every action you take, and think about how you could systematize part of it or some parts of it or at least just make some of those things faster, and you do it more efficiently.

Dave:

That's depth toward what we're talking about. And it really when you think about it that way, like, think about what you do throughout the day. How could you minimize that? How could you do it more efficiently? It really the natural progression to think about is what value do you really provide as a human into your process?

Dave:

What's the most valuable thing your discretion provides? And going through this process will help you tease that out. And I can guarantee the value you provide is not gonna be, like, entering orders the best. Right?

Michael:

Mhmm.

Dave:

Yeah. That's not gonna be you're not gonna be the best order enterer in the world.

Michael:

Well, at the at the end of the day, right, I keep talking with this. The end at at the very, you know, first principles or core of what we do, it's it's hitting a a button. It you know, usually, it's a a highlighted button. Usually, it right? It's it's something that, I think I I explained it to some peep traders I was talking to a little bit more crass that, if you could teach a monkey, if you teach intelligent monkey to do it, then you shouldn't be doing it.

Michael:

And I always use my examples from my hedge fund experience where the the portfolio manager, the actual hedge fund manager, the guy who makes all the money, he's not sitting there entering orders. Right. He opens up his door and he screams at his execution trader who makes way less than he does. He says, listen, you know, this Apple vision, whatever is going to change the world. You know, by the end of next month, we need to own, you know, 100,000,000 shares of Apple Co.

Michael:

And he doesn't think about it anymore. Right? He knows at the end of the day, there should be a report on his desk at a period of time that says he owns the amount of Apple he's going to own. And so he spends his time thinking of something else. Right?

Michael:

So I always encourage people. It's that if you are going to take a dip into this world, and that's why we had a a whole kind of, I think, 2 or 3 episode series on order types. That's the easiest thing to thing to take out. But, you know, just talking more about this this, particular drift and then the control of that drift, I think that's another very easy one. You know, if you're, if you're finding that your setups or your charts look the same, but your p and l is different from time to time, then you could just look at the execution side of things and say, am I not executing at the right time?

Michael:

Am I executing a little bit later than my system? And then what can I do to bridge, bridge that particular gap? Right. And in the, kind of day trading journey that I'm going back down where I'm using these these day trading systems, I haven't found a way to fully systematize everything, but just a small increase that I've made that's actually dramatically helped my p and l is I've just figured out a simple way that the platform that I'm using, I can fill out, because I send out 20 orders off the open. I can fill out 20 order tabs.

Michael:

So it's gone from me this system where I would use alerts to say, okay, buy or sell this thing now, and I'd load up the system and take the trade. But now it just comes to the point where at 9:31 every morning, I'm hitting send order 20 times in in boxes that are already completely filled out the night before. I'm just hitting that button 20 times, and then I'm walking away. So it's, like, small edges like that that has really actually saved me, you know, probably, like, half an hour or an hour a day and has also increased the, the returns of the system because I'm no longer missing things as much or entering entering orders. So what we're talking about, I think, here is is how do you exploit small edges?

Michael:

Like, how do you push, you know, on on any pedal that you can? It doesn't have to be a huge thing to go from fully discretion to fully systematized. But, you know, just always think, is there is there any way that I can automate this one simple thing just to to kinda make my day better?

Dave:

For sure. I mean, that's ultimately, I think, what I love about trading the most is the the the bar for improvement is small. Like, you can make these tiny adjustments and have a huge effect on your p and l, and they're everywhere. Like, there's all sort there's no end to ways you can improve, and that that's it doesn't you know, you don't have to, you know, reinvent the wheel or have some awesome invention that nobody's thought of. Mhmm.

Dave:

You could just look at your system, your workflow, and brainstorm yourself. Like, how do I improve this one little thing? Make my life easier. Free up my time to, do something more valuable with my systems rather than, you know, punching buttons or entering orders. So you're you're right.

Dave:

I mean, that's that's that's what I love about it.

Michael:

Yeah. And, right, it's that small, that small change that I made just came completely out of nowhere when I was we mentioned this when we're talking about generating ideas when I was, at the gym. And, I think part of what happens when it feels like there's almost a a damn break moment in in trading and in systematic trading where, you know, doing something a little bit more systematized frees up, like, a little bit of brainpower and a little bit of time. And then inside that brainpower and time, you think of something else you can systemize, which frees up a little bit more brainpower and a little bit more time and ends up being this kind of incremental push out of, oh, well, now I don't have to stare at 17 monitors of charts all day long to hit a button to do a thing. Well, now my brain is is because your brain never never stops.

Michael:

It's not like you're just done. It's thinking, you know, it's now freed up a lot of horsepower or processing power can push to something else and then so on and so forth down the road until eventually, I could see myself sitting here one day saying, yeah. I'm just like Dave where I just completely automate everything and and whatever. But, for me, it's it's more of a an incremental process. And like I just mentioned, just pushing these these small edges and small improvements every time I can.

Dave:

Yeah. There was a great comment on the, the the YouTube episode for the order types that we re released a few weeks ago now.

Michael:

Mhmm.

Dave:

He was asking a question about the order types that how to submit the exit orders along with the entry order. So, basically, he was he thought he had to be there when that entry order filled to enter the exit orders. And when I saw this, I was like, oh my gosh. Your life is getting ready to change.

Michael:

I mean,

Dave:

you are

Michael:

That's the first step.

Dave:

Used like, this is a huge step for you that your life is gonna be different from here on out once you learn how to do this with those order types.

Michael:

Well, yeah, because if we just follow that person's, that journey now, say he's entering orders on the open that he's looking to exit, I don't know, at the end of the week. Right? So he's a swing trader. He's gonna he's gonna enter a bunch of orders on Monday, and he's gonna close them on Friday. Well, we we've gone from him probably watching all week to now maybe checks on Friday to make sure his order's filled, and and that's it.

Michael:

So just giving him back, like, 90% of his time. If he's a day trader, it's the same thing. Maybe he enters a bunch of orders on the open and then, you know, walks away. And and now he's gone from watching the market the entire day to watching the market on that opening 30 minutes or whatever just to make sure everything's working okay, and then checks it again on the close. So now the question with that individual is you've just gotten 6 hours a day back where you're not staring at every tick of every screen.

Michael:

Now imagine what you can do with that. Right? Imagine if you take that time and, you know, go through the podcast that we talked about on how to generate ideas and start generating more ideas. And then as we go down this road on on testing them and and how to refine them, it's it's yeah. It does feel like it's a bit of a a damn break moment where you're like, okay.

Michael:

I've just I've freed up all this time. I can either, you know, sit on the couch and play video games, or I can take some of that time. Or maybe I do both. Maybe I take half it, and I sit on the couch to play video games. I take the other half of it, and I continue to push.

Michael:

And as you push, again, you get more and more systemized as things go on.

Dave:

Yeah. And I think it's even it's even more than bringing up time because, you know, imagine if you were there watching tick by tick your positions play out, second guessing everything. Like, how many times are you gonna do something that screws us up? Like, a lot. I know I would.

Michael:

Well, I know I've I actually talked about that with the trader who kept saying, I keep getting in the way. I keep getting in the way of my system. I keep I keep entering, and I'm like, what are you doing here? So this is a gentleman who works a full time job and, and swing trades with some of the systems that that I've built where all the orders are known on Sunday night. So why are you looking?

Michael:

Right? I said, if if you don't feel confident in just putting the order out there and and then letting it fill or not fill, set an alert and just kind of promise yourself you're not even gonna look at the market until that alert goes off, and then you can open up. You can take your trade and you can close it back down. It is that detachment that I think is is big. Because as you mentioned, the more someone sitting there looking at, the more tempted they are to to kind of push and to change and and, you know, like, you talked about you thought you were doing something that was phenomenal for the system that ended up not mattering.

Michael:

It's, yeah, just remove yourself. Go do something else. And then what will happen is your 9 to 5 job that pays the bills and feeds the kids and everything, you're gonna be better at that because you're not spending all day with, you know, something on the corner of your screen that's drawing your attention. So you end up, you know, doing better on this side that actually ends up doing better on that side. And and, yeah, it and it all starts with just, you know, getting started, making that kinda one step, and that frees up some attention and and time and space, and then you move on from there.

Dave:

Yeah. You just get more consistent over time.

Michael:

Awesome. Well, listen, Dave. Again, I I love these. I I look forward to this every week. I I think I say at the end of every episode, but I really do.

Michael:

And it's it's not just blowing smoke because I just finished a podcast, and I think I have another podcast later today, and I've got another podcast tomorrow. So I do a lot of these, but, I enjoy talking to them because I do think it's it's rare rarer than than not to have, systematic trading approach as opposed to macroeconomics and and charts and that kind of stuff. So so it's fun. So just to summarize, and I'll I'll let you have the final word, is that if you're noticing that the the the drift between what you think you're doing and what's actually happening, a, make sure you have to have a system to detect that. I think that's something that you glossed over.

Michael:

But, if you weren't as diligent on recording things, you would never probably have known. Right? When you'd be looking at this thing and it was different, you'd have no idea. So, a, make sure you've got a system in place, and, b, make sure you have a system to to make sure that you're checking this periodically because as you mentioned, you went 6 months back and noticed something was different. And then just push on any edge that you can come across to say, this is what's this is what my back test or what my system or or what my alert said I should have done, and this is what I did.

Michael:

And and try to just spend way less time staring at every tick and way more time trying to push those things more aligned, and and you're definitely gonna be a better trader.

Dave:

Yeah. For sure. Yeah. I'll just, in in closing, I'll just mention that, you know, we've gotten some good feedback. I can tell we're getting more and more.

Dave:

People are liking, the podcast, and, you know, I know I enjoy doing it. I think you enjoy doing it too. So, yeah, it's good to get that feedback and hear that people are, getting some useful stuff out of it and applying it to their own trading.

Michael:

Awesome. Well, we'll keep doing it because we keep enjoying it, and so keep asking those questions. I love that we're we're getting them and then we're answering them. So there's some sort of community feedback as well. And I'll talk to you guys next week.

Dave:

Alright. See you next week.