Key Markets & Headlines — Thursday, July 30, 2026

Daily market briefing for 2026-07-30.

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Key Markets & Headlines

Key markets and headlines for today.

The most market-moving story this morning comes from the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh’s communication style following the latest policy meeting has left investors doubting the Fed’s commitment to curb inflation. The central bank left rates unchanged in a nine to three vote, as expected, but Warsh failed to provide specifics on how he intends to achieve his stated inflation goals. This lack of clarity has prompted analysts at JPMorgan to pull forward their call for a rate hike from the second half of twenty twenty-seven to this December. Michael Feroli at JPMorgan wrote that Warsh’s lack of detail adds urgency for the rest of the committee to act on its mandate. The market reaction was swift and harsh: stocks ended the day sharply lower, and longer-dated bond yields surged to near twenty-year highs as concerns about inflation took center stage. Warsh will have another opportunity to address these concerns at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole next month, but for now, investors are left with more questions than answers.

Turning to equities, let’s start with the technology sector, which continues to see inflows despite recent volatility.

Arm shares slid in late trading after the company pointed to sluggishness in the smartphone industry, overshadowing a lucrative push into data center technology. Royalties from handset makers still make up much of Arm’s revenue, but the pace of growth is slowing. The company now expects royalty growth in the low to middle teens for the current period, down from earlier expectations of about twenty percent. Chief Financial Officer Jason Child said on the post-earnings call that “there is weakness on the smartphone side,” though expansion into data center chips is helping offset the slowdown. Despite beating Wall Street estimates for the first quarter—reporting overall sales of one point two nine billion dollars and profit of forty-five cents a share—Arm’s outlook contributed to pessimism around semiconductor stocks. Shares fell about seven percent in extended trading. For the fiscal second quarter, Arm expects sales of about one point three eight billion dollars and profit of forty-seven cents a share, both slightly ahead of analyst averages but below some of the more bullish forecasts.

Meta also disappointed investors with its quarterly revenue forecast, stepping up pressure on CEO Mark Zuckerberg to show that the company’s massive investment in artificial intelligence is paying off. Meta reported the lowest free cash flow in years, a sign of ballooning expenses for AI initiatives, including data centers and smart glasses, which could total up to one hundred forty-five billion dollars this year. Third-quarter revenue is expected to be between sixty-one and sixty-four billion dollars, with the midpoint below the average analyst estimate. Shares fell around eight percent in premarket trading and are now down eleven percent for the year. On the earnings call, Zuckerberg hinted at a potential new business line: selling Meta’s computing power to other companies, as demand for AI infrastructure grows. The company also raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast, now expecting to spend between one hundred thirty and one hundred forty-five billion dollars. In a sign of the scale of these investments, Meta’s free cash flow in the second quarter dropped to seven hundred eighty-four million dollars, the lowest since the third quarter of twenty twenty-two.

In contrast, Microsoft reported robust cloud growth and a surge in paid artificial intelligence subscribers, reassuring investors that its heavy spending on data centers is fueling revenue. Microsoft’s revenue rose eighteen percent to ninety billion dollars in the quarter ended June, and net income jumped thirty-one percent to thirty-five point eight billion. The company’s Azure cloud business surpassed one hundred billion dollars in revenue for the first time in the fiscal year, with quarterly growth accelerating to forty-three percent, up from forty percent in the previous quarter. Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood said customer demand continues to exceed available capacity, and the company expects forty-five percent growth in the current quarter. The Intelligent Cloud segment, which includes Azure and other products, generated thirty-nine point three billion dollars in revenue. Microsoft’s Copilot, the AI-powered feature set embedded in Office applications, now has thirty million paid users, up from twenty million last quarter. Shares of Microsoft, which had been down about eighteen percent this year, rose eight percent in after-hours trading.

Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor arm reported a more than two hundred fifty-fold jump in profit, reflecting significant progress in the AI memory boom. The unit posted operating income of eighty-nine point two trillion won, or about sixty-two billion dollars, for the June quarter, beating analyst estimates. Group-wide net income was seventy-one point three trillion won. Almost all of Samsung’s profit came from chips, while the consumer electronics unit swung to a loss, squeezed by the same component prices driving the semiconductor boom.

Sony made a non-binding proposal to acquire Japanese lens-maker Tamron, aiming to bolster its electronics hardware business. While terms weren’t disclosed, Tamron’s market cap stood at about one point two billion dollars at Wednesday’s close. Tamron’s shares surged over twenty-six percent on the news. Sony’s camera business is one of its few lucrative consumer electronics segments, and Tamron already manufactures many lenses for Sony’s E-mount system. The acquisition could also strengthen Sony’s image sensor business, particularly for surveillance and automotive imaging.

Procore Technologies agreed to acquire DroneDeploy for around eight hundred forty-five million dollars in cash. The move is expected to enhance Procore’s artificial intelligence offerings by integrating DroneDeploy’s robotics and visual intelligence platform. CEO Ajei Gopal said the plan is to cross-sell DroneDeploy’s solutions to Procore’s broader customer base, accelerating the company’s AI strategy.

Lemonade shares were upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform by Keefe Bruyette, with the price target unchanged at forty-eight dollars. After a twenty-four percent selloff, shares are now near the target price. The analyst is more constructive on Lemonade’s ability to sustain strong loss ratios, especially given its focus on pet and renters insurance, which faces less competition than auto and home lines.

Raymond James downgraded Wix.com to Outperform from Strong Buy, lowering the price target to seventy dollars from seventy-five. While Wix remains well positioned in the emerging Vibe Coding market and the broader AI product cycle, the recent rally in shares limits near-term upside until there’s greater visibility on sustainable growth.

Turning to the broader consumer and services sector, Carvana reported record sales and profit in the second quarter, capitalizing on Americans’ growing demand for used cars as new car prices remain high. Carvana sold about one hundred ninety-seven thousand vehicles, up nearly forty percent year-over-year, and posted a profit of three hundred ten million dollars. Revenue rose fifty-two percent to seven point three eight billion dollars. Despite these strong results, Carvana’s stock fell about fifteen percent in after-hours trading before moderating to an eight percent drop, as its full-year guidance failed to meet analyst expectations. The company projects earnings of two point seven to three billion dollars for the year, while some forecasts expected more than three billion. Carvana has now posted ten consecutive quarters of growth and has doubled its retail sales in the past two years.

DoorDash has received FAA certification to run its own commercial drone-delivery service, DoorDash Air, but does not expect to start deliveries until the fall. The company will continue its partnerships with Wing and Flytrex while developing its own drone, ground infrastructure, and handoff systems. The strategy aims to lower delivery costs and speed up medium-distance orders, particularly for three- to five-mile trips that are harder to staff with human couriers.

SpaceX shares fell after reports emerged that the company is seeking urban-friendly wireless spectrum to support its plan for a full-service mobile network. SpaceX is considering buying competitors or bidding in a government auction next year to secure the necessary airwaves, especially for dense urban areas where coverage is more challenging.

Stellantis reported that its second-quarter profitability was squeezed by intense competition in Europe, where cheaper Chinese electric and hybrid brands are gaining market share, as well as by high raw-material costs and weak pricing. Adjusted operating income came in at two hundred ninety-three million euros, below analyst expectations. While sales rose and the company returned to net income, investors were not impressed, sending the stock sharply lower. Stellantis is responding with a major restructuring, including sixty billion euros of investment through twenty thirty, six billion euros of annual cost savings by twenty twenty-eight, and a sharper focus on core brands like Jeep, Ram, Peugeot, and Fiat. The company is also partnering with Leapmotor and Dongfeng to better utilize European plants.

ThreatLocker, a leader in Zero Trust cybersecurity, announced it has secured one hundred ninety million dollars in Series F funding led by Elephant, with support from D. E. Shaw Ventures, Arthur Ventures, and Koch Disruptive Technologies. The capital will support development of controls for AI-related security risks, further improvements to its Zero Trust platform, and international expansion, starting with a new office in Reading, United Kingdom.

In the streaming and sports media space, MSG Networks and YES Network are phasing out their jointly run Gotham Sports App and moving their lineup of New York-area sports teams to the DAZN streaming service. Starting with the twenty twenty-six to twenty twenty-seven season, Yankees, Knicks, Nets, Rangers, Devils, Sabres, and Islanders games that air on MSG and YES cable channels will stream on DAZN. Fans with cable or satellite subscriptions will be able to access the games on DAZN at no additional charge. The move strengthens DAZN’s role in the U.S. market and allows it to capitalize on high ratings, especially following the Knicks’ recent NBA championship.

Netflix is paying two hundred million dollars for broadcast rights to next year’s FIFA Women’s World Cup, making it one of the largest media deals for a women’s sports property. The streaming giant had already announced it acquired rights to show matches in the U.S. and Canada for both the twenty twenty-seven and twenty thirty-one tournaments, but the financial details for the twenty twenty-seven event in Brazil were not previously disclosed. For comparison, the WNBA’s eleven-year, three point one billion dollar deal works out to about two hundred eighty million dollars a year.

Formula 1 chief executive Stefano Domenicali said the championship is prepared to finish the twenty twenty-six season in Europe, even if it means racing in the snow. The season is currently scheduled to end with races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi, but both are increasingly unlikely due to the ongoing war in Iran. Imola in northern Italy is reportedly the top contingency option should an alternate destination be needed.

LIV Golf is reportedly closer to securing new investors, which could keep the league alive into twenty twenty-seven and beyond after Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund said it would stop funding the tour after the twenty twenty-six season. LIV is seeking roughly two hundred fifty to three hundred million dollars, with multiple blue-chip firms having submitted term sheets. The deal could be finalized around September, though the league’s immediate future remains uncertain, with the Michigan team championship likely to be canceled and remaining events in New Jersey and Indianapolis expected to proceed.

FIFA is facing backlash over plans to raise up to four point two billion dollars by selling a minority stake in a new commercial entity, FIFA Forward Enterprise. The entity would package media rights, sponsorships, ticketing, licensing, and other revenue-generating assets. The plan emerged from secret talks last year between FIFA president Gianni Infantino and investor Joshua Kushner, with JPMorgan brought in to structure the deal and identify investors. Critics, including UEFA and lawmakers, argue the move could overly commercialize the sport and deepen concerns about FIFA’s political and financial ties, especially given Kushner’s connection to the Trump family. FIFA says it would retain control and use the proceeds to fund football development worldwide, but member associations and investors are being pushed to back the plan by September.

Potential investors in Liverpool FC are planning to eventually obtain a controlling stake in the Premier League club. A group led by Amit Bhatia, the son-in-law of steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal, is negotiating with Fenway Sports Group for as much as thirty percent of the club, with the possibility of increasing their stake over time. Liverpool is being valued at six billion dollars, making it one of the world’s most expensive football clubs. Any deal would initially be for a minority stake, and Fenway Sports Group has no immediate plans to sell the club outright.

In the crypto and derivatives space, Binance.US is planning to apply for a license with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to start its own prediction market. The move would allow Binance.US to offer a designated contract market, joining other exchanges like Gemini and Coinbase that have entered the prediction market space.

CME Group is planning to offer futures and options contracts tied to professional and college sports, working with FutureSports as the index provider. The new sports futures contracts, which will be cash-settled and expire on a monthly and quarterly basis, could begin trading as soon as this summer, pending regulatory approval. If approved, this would be the first offering of its kind for the sports industry, bringing price discovery and risk management tools to a new market.

Turning to macro and rates, some global bond investors are shifting toward markets like Australia and Europe as doubts grow over the Federal Reserve’s ability to keep inflation under control. Schroders, which oversees one point one trillion dollars, is increasing its bearish Treasury positions and buying front-end government bonds in Australia, the United Kingdom, and the eurozone. The firm expects front-end yields in those markets to fall and is short U.S. five- and ten-year Treasuries. Kellie Wood, head of fixed income at Schroders’ Australian unit, said there are great opportunities outside the U.S., with central banks in Australia, Europe, and the U.K. likely to stay on hold versus what’s currently priced into markets. Navin Saigal at BlackRock said the Fed’s willingness to let markets do more of the heavy lifting means investors are not being compensated enough for large directional bets on rates, and should instead focus on building income and diversifying sources of return.

On the geopolitical front, the U.S. launched a fresh wave of strikes on Iran in response to an attack on American forces in Jordan, escalating a conflict that’s now spreading across the Middle East. Washington hit dozens of military targets early Thursday, aiming to degrade Tehran’s ability to threaten U.S. troops, Arab allies, and commercial shipping. Iran targeted a building in northern Kuwait, killing one worker and causing significant material damage, while Jordan said it intercepted five missiles from Iran. Two liquefied natural gas vessels at an Egyptian port on the Mediterranean were struck by drones, causing fires but no injuries. No party has claimed responsibility for the tanker strikes, which are the first in Egyptian waters since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began more than five months ago. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are ongoing to restore stability, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz.

In event-driven news, Anglo American is discussing a deal worth about one billion dollars to sell its De Beers diamond business, a fraction of what the one-time diamond monopoly was once worth. Anglo has been looking to sell De Beers since fending off a nearly fifty billion dollar approach from BHP Group in early twenty twenty-four. The sale process has been complicated by a crisis in the diamond market, with Anglo taking three impairments on De Beers in three years, lowering its carrying value to two point three billion dollars. The preferred bidder is a consortium led by former De Beers CEO Gareth Penny, with Namibia, Angola, and major diamond traders involved. The deal structure calls for seven hundred fifty million dollars upfront and two hundred fifty million later for Anglo’s eighty-five percent stake.

Jersey Mike’s Subs and some of its shareholders raised one billion dollars in an initial public offering that priced at twenty-three dollars per share, at the midpoint of its marketed range. The company offered thirteen point eight million shares, and backers including Blackstone and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority offered twenty-nine point seven million shares. At the IPO price, Jersey Mike’s has a market value of seven point three billion dollars. The IPO was more than ten times oversubscribed, and affiliates of Blackstone are set to hold sixty-eight percent of the combined voting power after the offering. Jersey Mike’s was acquired by Blackstone last year for about eight billion dollars including debt.

NextEra Energy, the largest U.S. power utility, is teaming up with Brookfield on a more than one hundred billion dollar transformation of a shuttered Cold War uranium-enrichment facility in Kentucky into a data center campus with a generating plant. The privately funded project will include a two-gigawatt natural gas-fired power plant and up to two point six gigawatts of battery storage capacity. Brookfield Asset Management will develop and operate the data center campus, which will occupy part of the three thousand five hundred fifty-six acre Energy Department site once used to produce weapons-grade uranium and nuclear reactor fuel.

Johnson & Johnson announced a collaboration with Sail Biomedicines to develop CAR-T therapies for immune diseases and now has an exclusive option to acquire the company. The initial payments total seven hundred eighty-five million dollars, including an equity investment, with the potential for additional milestone payments. J&J also has the option to purchase Sail for an additional two point five eight billion dollars. If exercised, the acquisition would reduce adjusted earnings per share by about eighteen cents this year and one dollar twenty-eight cents in twenty twenty-seven. Sail Biomedicines, formed in October twenty twenty-three, is working on in-vivo CAR-T technology to reprogram immune cells.

In other notable corporate news, Lilian Weng, co-founder of Thinking Machines, announced she will step down from her role due to health issues. Weng will now lead a top-level team at OpenAI focused on accelerating internal research, particularly on recursive self-improvement—an approach that allows AI systems to iterate and improve themselves.

In the insurance sector, Lemonade’s recent twenty-four percent selloff has brought shares near the target price set by Keefe Bruyette, which upgraded the stock to Market Perform. The analyst believes Lemonade’s pet and renters-focused portfolio should face less competition than auto and home lines, supporting stronger loss ratios.

In the legal and regulatory space, the Federal Trade Commission, Utah, and Los Angeles County have sued Hims & Hers Health for allegedly misleading consumers about its products and sharing private health information with Meta and Snap. Hims shares fell fifteen percent to twenty-five dollars, the lowest since February. The lawsuit alleges Hims failed to disclose subscription terms, made cancellation difficult, and misled consumers about privacy by sharing data with social networks for advertising. The company has about two point six million subscribers, but some customers have complained about difficulties canceling subscriptions and continued charges after cancellation.

And finally, in the charts and flows, thirty-year Treasury yields gapped higher after the Fed kept rates on hold, as the bond market had hoped for a rate hike to tame inflation. In equities, the tech sector continues to see inflows despite volatility, while precious metals and crypto continue to see outflows. Credit default swap hedging is back in vogue as hyperscaler credit risk continues to widen. Semiconductors are starting to look cheap relative to most sectors in the S&P five hundred.

Thanks for listening.