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Welcome to How to Retire on Time, a show that answers your retirement questions. Say goodbye to the oversimplified advice you've heard hundreds of times. This show is about getting into the nitty-gritty so you can make better decisions as you prepare for retirement. Text your questions to 913-363-1234 and we'll feature them on the show. Don't forget to grab a copy of the book, How to Retire on Time, or check out our resources by going to www.retireontime.com.
There's this exit of the United States dollar, and they're looking for gold to then be a placeholder at least for the time being. So gold increased in value incredibly well. Welcome to the Retire On Time podcast. I'm Mike Decker here with Kedric Wealth alongside David Franson. We're gonna answer your questions that you've texted 9 to (913) 363-1234.
Mike:Put that number in your phone and just put us as the contact. And when you've got questions, just send us a text. We'll feature them on the show. As always, remember, this is not financial advice. David, what what do we got today?
David:Hey, Mike. What happened to gold and silver? I mean, they still exist. Right? We still have gold and silver out there.
Mike:Yeah. Gold and silver still exists.
David:Okay.
Mike:Though it doesn't feel that way.
David:Yeah.
Mike:Alright. So let me paint a picture.
David:Alright.
Mike:I got, you know, the premise. Okay. Alright. So you've got this guy, Donald J. Trump
David:Oh, yeah.
Mike:Who was a master of manipulating debt. Alright. He's now the president. Okay? And this country has enormous debt.
Mike:Uh-huh. Well, there's a couple of ways you can solve government debt. One is you can increase taxes. He didn't wanna do that. You could default on the debt.
Mike:Professionally, he did that all the time, but I don't think he wants to do that as the president. Mhmm. Okay? That that would really hurt. If the government defaulted on debt, that's different than you just say, no, here's this LLC, and you file for bankruptcy and and manipulate things.
David:Okay.
Mike:So I don't think he's gonna do that. You could grow the economy, that's really hard to do, but I think he's trying to do that. Mhmm. Every president tries to grow the economy though, so that's that's an easy Yeah. You know, thing to say.
Mike:And then the fourth one, which isn't talked about a lot, is inflating the debt.
David:Okay. What do you mean by that?
Mike:So let's say I give you a $100 bill
David:Alright.
Mike:Today. K? And you're gonna give me this $100 bill back in five years.
David:Okay.
Mike:You're gonna hope that that $100 bill is worth like $60 when you have to get back, when you give it back to me because it's inflated away. It's worthless. Not worthless, it's worth less value.
David:Okay.
Mike:That's inflating debt away.
David:Oh, okay. So so, yeah, the the the value of the of the currency the the spending power kinda lowers, but, like, the the amount of the debt stays the same.
Mike:Yeah. Okay. So if you consider just for a moment, the United States dollar as the the value of our existence. Okay? When we look at the S and P five hundred's growth, it's based on the dollar as the measurement, as the constant.
Mike:So we've had a good looking year.
David:Mhmm.
Mike:Markets are up. Last year, 2025, markets were up. Everything looks great. Right?
David:Yeah.
Mike:Well, if you look at the dollar, the dollar's been devalued since Trump got into office around 10%. It's lost 10% of its value. That's that's not very fun. And it's not saying, oh, well, I don't really travel a lot, so I don't really spend money abroad, so who cares? Well, all of the, you know, the the the the businesses that have to spend abroad to bring in things, they're all hurting now because the dollar that they're using to to pay for goods or services overseas is less valuable, so they have to spend more of it to then get those good services.
David:I
Mike:see. So in other words, you could argue that Trump has hidden the tariff inflation with the devaluing of the dollar. Now that's a very complicated, not fully accurate thing that I just said. A lot of moving parts there. This is economics.
Mike:But let's just, for argument's sake, say that Trump devalued the dollar, and that's kind of why some things have been hidden or haven't been felt as much for the consumer standpoint. Okay?
David:Alright.
Mike:So if you look at then what gold has done, gold has increased exponentially in silver as well because the dollar was losing value.
David:If
Mike:you look at gold as the back to fiat currency.
David:And what do mean by
Mike:fiat? Government currency.
David:Okay.
Mike:Whether it's the Mexican peso or the Canadian what the Canadian dollar.
David:They do have a dollar. I think Australia does too.
Mike:I I always think of, like, the loonie. You get the loonie, the the double loonie. Not really they don't have the loonie anyway. The American dollar, the the pound, you know, all all these currencies.
David:Okay.
Mike:Sure. So gold is kind of the global middle ground of everything. You have your fiat currency, and then you have gold. That's how it works. Okay.
Mike:So our currency was being devalued. Gold was the constant. So people were moving to gold, which then increased the value of gold. Are you with me so far? Mhmm.
Mike:K. Now you have other governments that are pissed about the attempted acquisition of Greenland or what Trump did in Venezuela or whatever you wanna look at. Mhmm. And so they're dumping our treasuries, our debt. Like out
David:of spite or is it strategic?
Mike:Spite. And so if they dump it, what do they buy? They buy gold. Or they could buy gold. So there's there's this exit of the United States dollar, and they're looking for gold to then be a placeholder, at least for the time being.
Mike:So gold increased in value incredibly well.
David:Mhmm.
Mike:That's an oversimplified answer to why gold may have increased.
David:Okay. Are you
Mike:with me so far? Yeah. K. So then comes along this guy named Kevin Warsh. K?
Mike:Trump tweets out that he's nominating Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman. Now, he's not been appointed yet. He still has to go through the process of getting that nomination and actually becoming the Fed chair. Kevin Wash is what they call a hawk. Uh-huh.
Mike:What is a hawk? Yeah. A hawk is someone that keeps interest rates high in spite of what the economy is doing. Kevin Walsh historically was the guy that during the two thousand eight financial crisis was saying, we shouldn't lower it that much. He's very cold, and I mean that as a compliment, kinda like Margaret Thatcher, the iron lady of England that saved that country, in my opinion.
Mike:Very fiscally responsible. This is kinda like a Kevin Walsh situation. So here you have Trump trying to devalue the dollar, trying to bring back jobs, trying to manipulate our currency, and all these crazy things, and then he nominates someone that's the exact opposite of what his plan is. Kevin Walsh doesn't drop interest rates like Trump has said he's wanted. So now you have this this momentum of dollars getting devalued, dollars getting devalued, and then Trump's gonna nominate someone that's gonna make the dollar strong again.
Mike:That's whiplash.
David:Yeah. Okay.
Mike:And people panic. This is one of those days they might write about fifty years from now and say, hey. Remember that time Yeah. That Trump did that thing? Yeah.
Mike:And the markets freaked out. I mean, silver was down, I think, 33% in a day.
David:And that's sort of unprecedented or
Mike:Not leveraged silver.
David:Uh-huh.
Mike:Just silver. I cannot think back at a single position that dropped more with I I Okay. There's, like, companies that will go bankrupt. That's Yeah. Aside from those situations, like, I've never seen a commodity or a situation like that.
Mike:I can't even think about reading about any of them in one day with that big of a drop.
David:That's wild.
Mike:Unprecedented. So the point being is it works until it doesn't. Trump played the cards how he typically plays, and he's got all this momentum one way, and then there's a hard right turn Uh-huh. Or left turn, depending on how you wanna look at it.
David:Okay.
Mike:Nominate someone that's the exact opposite of what he's been saying he wants to do, and now the markets are confused. And when markets are confused, they typically don't do well. So the question is is now and we're recording this on February 2, so, you know, who's to say what happens when this recording actually goes live? But does gold recover for the year? Does Kevin Walsh go in there and do what Trump says he wants the next Fed chair to do and and devalue the dollar, lower interest rates, and and create issues that then would allow gold to recover?
Mike:And will gold recover, like many analysts are saying, like, 6,000, 6,500 or something like that by the end of the year, which would be a good overall growth. Mhmm. You know, good good projection. Or does the dollar become so strong that gold then corrects and continues to fall off a cliff? And no one knows.
Mike:Because it's like you ever, like, meet someone or, like, you've got a friend in high school and college and you know them one way. Like, it's exactly who you expect they are. And then you meet them ten years later, and they're a completely different person, and you're almost like, are you sure? Like, weren't taken over by aliens.
David:Alright. Okay.
Mike:Are you sure that you're same person? Yeah. It's kinda like how I feel this the Kevin Wash situation is. Okay. So I mean, a quick shout out to a buddy of mine in high school.
Mike:He you know, good guy, ends up I'll just I'll leave a lot of details out, but he get ends up spending most of his time in his twenties working on organic farms in Hawaii and Oregon.
David:Oh, sounds nice.
Mike:Today, I believe he's in sales in Boston and wears a three piece suit every day. That was very interesting to see, oh, how did that change come about? Yeah. That's kinda like what has to happen for Trump to either get his way, or he just nominated someone that's gonna be a pain in his side. Yeah.
Mike:And we'll hear about it in the news, and it'll threaten him and whatever. So we we are in very interesting times to say the least. But, yeah, that's that's my take on why gold may have shifted that way. I think overall gold will still do well because I think we're at a market top. And when markets go down, gold is a flight to safety.
Mike:Uh-huh. So all things considered, it's not necessarily a panic. It's just a roller coaster, a ride where, know, you have that first drop that really hurts Yeah. But eventually it ends up being fun. Yeah.
Mike:I I think that's kinda where we are with gold. But just my two cents, not promissory. I can't see the future. No one knows the future of the markets. That's all the time we've got for today's show.
Mike:If you enjoyed it, consider telling a friend, leaving a rating, or subscribing to it wherever you get your podcast and or on YouTube. Also, for retirement resources, books, workbooks, and even workshops that we offer, just go to retireontime.com to explore all the resources available to you. Thank you for spending your time, your most precious asset with us today. We'll see you in the next episode.