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Conversations on Reforestation, Silviculture, Tree Genetics, Planting, Planning and More! Join us as we go deep with forestry experts and explore the art and science of trees.
Paul Jeffreys (00:05)
everybody. Welcome to this next edition of the TreeLines podcast. I'm your host, Paul Jeffreys And today we're going to be talking about forecasting the future. We're going to be diving into planning for the future of forestry, talking about market outlook, smart investment decisions, risk framing, and industry shifts shaping 2026 and beyond.
I'm Paul Jeffreys. the host. I'm the South Central Reforestation Advisor covering most of Alabama, Mississippi and West Tennessee. And my goal as always has been to help folks make informed, confident decisions about their land. I am a private timberland owner myself, and it has always been my passion. I did go to school in forestry. I am a graduate from Mississippi State University and have whole degrees all the way to a PhD.
study in bottomland hardwoods, but my interest in forestry always goes back to my growing up on my family timber land here in Northwest Alabama. And it just created a passion for me for forestry. From timber markets and capital investment trends to reforestation to decisions that pay off years down the road. This episode is going to be about planning smart, managing risks, staying proactive in an evolving industry.
And today we are joined with our guest, Amanda Lang from Forisk [Consulting] Welcome Amanda. It is great to have you on the TreeLines Podcast. And I'm just going to let you do a little bit of your background and your history.
Amanda Lang (01:32)
Great. Thank you so much, Paul. It's great to be here with you and with everybody today. I'm president and COO of Forisk Consulting. And at Forisk, we're industry experts in forest economics. And we help our clients make decisions about owning timberlands and building wood using mills and facilities across the United States and also into Canada. And like Paul, I also have a forestry background. I went to the University of Georgia, for my schooling and went to forestry school there. I'm a double dog, so I have a Master of Science degree.
I studied forest operations research while I was there. That is the logging and hauling sector under Dr. Dale Green. I have been here at Forisk for a long time. were talking about that a few minutes ago. Paul, Jason and I have here about 21 years here at Forisk. It has been a fun ride. Also like Paul, I grew up on timberlands in central Georgia. My family still manages those today. I do have love of forestry at the outdoors as well. super glad to be here with you.
Thank you.
Paul Jeffreys (02:28)
Well, thanks, Amanda.
And it is kind of funny how that all goes hand in hand. mean, you know, we grow up as, you know, we start out, a lot of people that are in the forest industry have grown up on family timberland or they have done, you know, they have some background in that. And it's just kind of amazing how, you know, it just gets in your blood. It gets in your passion. We're passionate about it. And, you know,
Jason Watson (02:48)
you
Paul Jeffreys (02:53)
That's why we do the TreeLines gives us a chance to explore the deep roots and the fascinating world of growing trees. And it is just, you know, we do this podcast for people to have that same interest to be able to come on and listen to different, different avenues. Also joining us today is my, one of my very best friends and colleague, Jason Watson.
and also from Mississippi and also a graduate from Mississippi State University. So two institutions, but we're all bulldogs. I'm gonna leave it up to debate which bulldog looks the best. But Jason, if you'd like to give us a little bit of background about yourself.
Jason Watson (03:19)
you
Well, I would lose that one. I'm sorry to pull you down, in that ⁓ competition. yeah, so I'm kind of like Amanda. I'm a double dog, just of it is kind of funny. I was thinking about this before you guys ever mentioned anything. We are all bulldogs. I guess just maybe a slightly different pedigree. But yes, I've got my Bachelor of Science ⁓ in forestry from Mississippi State.
Paul Jeffreys (03:39)
you
Jason Watson (03:59)
in 1996 and I worked for a number of years. I worked for Anderson Tully Company, which is no longer around, but in hardwood management and I was with Weyerhaeuser spent some time with them, but I've been with ArborGen now since 2012. yeah, as Paul said, I'm a Director of our
US sales for North America. Look, it's not a big difference here in terms of how I got started. I had a love of the land also. It's kind of funny, I went to Mississippi State not exactly as a freshman and I didn't know exactly what I wanted to do for sure, but I got a summer job.
Actually, with Contract Timber Cruisers in Mississippi, if anybody ever hears this podcast, these guys, one guy's name is Scotty Mayat. His brother Shane, of course, worked with us and then their cousin Craig Hitt. And all they would let me do that first summer is run compass, but still they made sure I wasn't scared of snakes, you know, and briars. And, and I did though, I really grasped ⁓ onto it really quickly.
Amanda Lang (05:08)
and
Jason Watson (05:12)
and immediately found my home, so to speak. Went back later in life and got a master's, a master of science. So that, yeah, so that I could also qualify as the double dog, but it's, I think it's, you know, one thing that's fun about our field too, and I know we've got other subjects to cover, but I think one thing that's really great and one thing that we all share is it's like, it instills with us like a lifelong learning. We never stop learning, and I think that's what our
Discipline allows us to do so One last thing before we segue on I will I do want Paul to remember I was the first guest on ⁓ the podcast guest on TreeLines so they brought me back I didn't completely fail I guess in my first one so they actually asked me to come back. I Feel very honored to be back with everybody today. Thank you
Paul Jeffreys (06:01)
A returning guest. I mean, I don't know if you return, it's like a game show. We keep coming back for more winnings or anything, but yes. no, no. I knew coming on here, Jason, with Amanda, that the discussion that we're going to have and talking about markets, we needed somebody with a lot more expertise in economics.
Jason Watson (06:03)
Yeah.
Or nobody else was available today. Maybe that's it.
Amanda Lang (06:27)
.
Paul Jeffreys (06:27)
and markets than I
have. My background is in management and at siviculture, So I needed someone to come on here to help me talk to Amanda because she is so, so great. What they do at Forisk [Consulting] is so amazing. You know, the job y'all do, Amanda, with
Jason Watson (06:30)
And me as well.
Paul Jeffreys (06:47)
⁓ keeping up with markets and what y'all provide to the forest industry is just absolutely amazing. And thank you so much for that. Y'all do such a wonderful job with keeping up with markets, whether they are, you know, they are great. Everything's going great or whether they're not. And, you know, y'all keep it in the information you put out there. I don't want to get too much into what you're going to discuss, but
Amanda Lang (06:55)
Thank you.
Paul Jeffreys (07:12)
Coming from someone that works with y'all, works with you as we do, is a great resource and thank you so much for what y'all do. You know, one thing that I want to start out with for our listeners is why does that matter? Why does it matter? Why does forecasting matter? You know, we...
I guess we could look at it as to weather forecasting. You know, it matters in weather when you're looking at a tornado barreling down on you and you want to know when it's time to run for shelter or when it's time to come out. Why does it matter for us to forecast in market?
Amanda Lang (07:44)
Yeah, it's a good question, Paul. You know, sometimes it does feel like forecasting is futile because the future sometimes feels so uncertain. And right now there's a lot going on in our country and our world. And it's a little bit hard to know exactly what's going to happen. But by putting together a forecast, it helps you organize your thoughts and identify things that are the most important. It also helps you make plans, right? Because if we're managing timberland, we're planting seedlings, we have businesses to run, we have to make
plans because that helps us make decisions and that helps us make informed decisions. And so that's really what forecasting is about. And in our work at Forisk, when we're doing forecasting, we know we're probably not going to be exactly right all the time. But the process of putting that forecast together helps us identify these things that are important. And we do use scenarios very often in our work.
Scenarios are very helpful because each scenario lets you identify these key drivers, the things that are going to really make changes in your outlook and in your business. And it lets you test sensitivities of those different inputs, if you will, those different inputs. And it also lets you look at what different outcomes could look like. And then you can set your plans related to what those different outcomes will be. And so by having that range of scenarios, whether it's a base case, which is kind of our most likely anywhere to like a
a high demand case, for example, for wood if we think there's going to be really strong markets, or if we think let's take a look at what if things are a little bit ⁓ more pessimistic, or what if they're slower, what if the economy's slower, let's look at that, and then let's use these different scenarios to see well if this were to happen what would we do, what would our plan be, and so it just kind of helps us organize our resources and thoughts and make some decisions about what we think the future is going to look like.
Paul Jeffreys (09:31)
Well, you said something there.
You used a term, you said inputs. What type of inputs are you talking about? What type of inputs are going into these plans?
Amanda Lang (09:40)
So in our work, you know, at Forisk we're forecasting things like the demand for wood or how much wood mills are going to buy off the market.
And so really to put together a forecast of something like what is demand going to do, a lot of the inputs we're looking at really start with the macro economy. What do we think the economy is going to do? What's GDP going to do, for example, population? We're also in forestry very interested in home building. We call it housing starts, how many houses are started by builders, because that's a key.
driver really of demand for lumber and OSB and building products which are really the outputs of what a mill is producing when they're buying saw timber from the woods or sometimes buying pulpwood. we're tracking economy to see what's happening in the economy. We're also tracking locally what the particular mills are doing and in a lot of our work at Forisk we're tracking the individual mills and trying to see which mills are expanding, which mills are closing and a lot of times these companies and mills are making announcements and
press
releases about what they're doing and so we're trying to track that locally and sometimes there's some projects that have been announced that maybe they're a little bit more speculative maybe they're a new technology that no one's ever technology before to make something out of wood are we certain they're gonna succeed we may be a little less likely or less certain than a project that's using a proven technology like a sawmill but that's still an interesting scenario interesting input if you will into our models is what if this mill is going to be running and they're going to be
Jason Watson (10:52)
Mm-hmm.
Amanda Lang (11:10)
using wood, what does that look like in terms of demand? And then what does that look like in terms of a timber price scenario in the future versus if that mill were to not run? So in terms of these inputs, again, for the demand side, we're looking at these individual mills. And we're also looking at those economic factors, those drivers of demand in the macro economy and in the country to help make those decisions.
Jason Watson (11:34)
Yeah.
Paul Jeffreys (11:35)
Yeah, that's very interesting there that, you know, and you're starting to get into some terminology there that, you know, kind of escaped me while I was in forestry school and economics and my old forestry professor of forest economics might agree with that as well. you know, looking at these and trying to make these forecasts, on average, I mean, are you seeing a lot of new projects come online? And on those projects, do you...
What are the, I guess, the percentages of the ones that actually, you know, go move from the beginning stage and move on into the, you know, the final stages?
Amanda Lang (12:14)
Yeah, so it's an interesting question, Paul. You we've been tracking, let's just pick the bioenergy sector as a good example, because our team at Forisk has been tracking this sector for 20 years or so as it's been developing the US South. And with that sector, there have been several projects that have had
Jason Watson (12:30)
you
Amanda Lang (12:31)
different technologies like ethanol or diesel or these different projects. And a lot of the ones that have the newer technologies, several have not succeeded, frankly. It's just, there's a lot of hurdles when you have a new technology. It's really expensive and there's a lot of development that comes along that needs to happen to make these be successful. But there have been a lot of successes along the way as well, especially in the wood pellet industry is one good example. That's a technology that we very much know how to use.
to make pellets. one example of Enviva, a company that makes wood pellets that just opened a facility in Epes, Alabama. So just very recently in some of the markets that you and your clients and some of the listeners might operate in. So in terms of the success rate, I don't really have that percentage in front of me in terms of all the projects along the way. But we have seen that kind of the screening process of looking at the technology and seeing if it's proven or not, but also looking at the development milestones of these projects.
we're kind of tracking several things in their development looking at do they have a site secured do they have an air permit
Do they have an offtake agreement? Do they have some of these agreements they would need to actually come to fruition? And that's been a pretty good screening process to look at how these projects might be successful. And we have found that those projects that have been making that progress and that development timeline and also have a bit of a more proven technology do seem to be more successful. But that's not to say that we won't see some successes along the way. One of the newer industries, at least for the United States, is the biocoal, biocarbon sector.
Jason Watson (13:35)
Yeah.
Amanda Lang (14:04)
something we've been tracking a lot. And there have been a lot of new developments like the plant SDI, Biocarbon in Columbus, Mississippi.
Jason Watson (14:10)
Columbus,
Mississippi. Yeah, right.
Paul Jeffreys (14:12)
Mm-hmm.
Amanda Lang (14:13)
started operating,
you guys probably know a little bit more about that maybe than me, maybe you guys have seen that operation, but I know they have started operating and producing that product, which is going to be going into the metal industry. It's a substitute for coal and making metal, so that's pretty cool. And just recently, Weyerhaeuser Company, so another big, large landowner in the South, they have an agreement with Amium to make this company called Terraforge, and they're going to start making biocarbon. think their first facility will be in McComb, Mississippi.
There are some newer technologies or newer uses of wood that we're starting to see, which is exciting.
Jason Watson (14:47)
Yep.
Paul Jeffreys (14:47)
Well, was
going to say there that a lot of the ones like you've just mentioned, there is a lot of activity in Mississippi. seems like looking across the Southeast, and Jason, please, with your ties to Mississippi as well, it seems like there has been a lot coming out here lately with Mississippi as being the focal point. ⁓
Jason Watson (15:12)
Okay.
Paul Jeffreys (15:13)
a lot of these new technologies. yeah, I mean, it seems like there's a lot of activity around this area.
Jason Watson (15:19)
Yeah, I I've really, I've told people I'm really excited about a lot of things for my home state. There's also, I know not far from where some of ⁓ my family's land is in the Neshoba County, not too far away, there's a new OSB mill, I guess, maybe in construction. I'm not sure, but it's a Huber, a Huber mill. think I'm correct in saying that. I'm like, I'm in.
Amanda Lang (15:42)
Yeah, that's right.
Jason Watson (15:42)
I don't have it in front
Amanda Lang (15:42)
That's right.
Jason Watson (15:43)
of me, but I believe that's who it is. Maybe around the town of Shuqualak. We say Sugarlock in Mississippi. ⁓
Paul Jeffreys (15:49)
Right. And I think you're right. think it
is getting close to completion if it hasn't already been completed.
Jason Watson (15:54)
Yeah.
Yeah. So there's been some really exciting projects announced. I know it's made my family still feel really good about the new activity that's there. And I think it also speaks to the resilience. I know we'll get into this maybe some more later, but especially from a manufacturing side, I think it speaks to the resilience of our industry.
those like with SDI that Amanda mentioned a little bit ago and the Weyerhaeuser project that innovativeness is something that I think can't be harnessed maybe if you will. I mean, I think that people are constantly Looking for new ways to innovate and look. I mean you're you're seeing it happen with some of these projects. So So it's really it's an interesting time I'll certainly say that for sure
Paul Jeffreys (16:45)
Yeah, I mean, it definitely is. When I first started with ArborGen 11 years ago, about to be 12 years ago now, when I would do a presentation for landowners and they would ask me about the pulp markets and they would ask me about the future and markets. Amanda, I didn't have the experience that you got. I don't have the background looking at it. And I would answer the questions the best I could.
And, and, but my main, one of the, one of the main answers and it's, and I think you're seeing this come to fruition now, not that I had any, any insight into it, but I would say, you know, a lot of the products that the trees we are planting today, a lot of those products haven't even been invented in that they're going to be, a lot of those products haven't even been invented that those trees are going to be used to make. And that was going on 12 years ago now. And, and
We're actually seeing that come full circle because of these new technologies that's coming out of products.
Jason Watson (17:45)
Yeah.
Yeah.
Paul Jeffreys (17:45)
You know, so, I mean, I still see a lot of landowners though, that are, you know, they're kind of, they're, they're cautious. You know, they're, cautious about what is, you know, I get the comment a lot, what can I do in the markets of today? And Amanda, maybe, maybe you could elaborate a little bit about, you know, you can't look at the markets today.
when you're reforesting trees or you're managing timber, you can't look at those markets of today. You've got to look at what is going to be down the road. Because I promise you the markets, the trees that are being planted now or the trees that are being thinned, the stands that are being thinned or the management that's going on, now the market's going to change. They're dynamic.
Amanda Lang (18:30)
Yeah, no, you're exactly right. Paul markets are very dynamic and we have seen a lot of change in timber markets in the past two, three years, even the past year in a lot of areas, particularly in the US South. You know, landowners are and mill workers and procurement foresters are living through a lot of closures, frankly, including big pulp mills that have closed, know, the Domtar mill in Grenada, Mississippi is a good example of a mill that closed last year. And so that has big impacts on landowners and also others in
timber markets and it has felt like a big shock and it was. It was a lot of wood use that came out of the system. But you're right in terms of looking forward, you know, it's a little bit of a balancing act because, you know, the best information we have is the information we have from today. The current situation, that's what's most concrete. And so that's we have to pay attention to that because it's here and we've got to, you know, look at that objectively. But we also want to look at what's going to be happening in the future. And so that's the piece we were talking about.
earlier on putting together a forecast, looking at different scenarios, but also looking at the different industries, you know, the different users of wood that are in, you know, a timber market around a landowner. Forestry is a very local business, you know, trees are big and heavy to move and they really only move 50 to 100 miles usually from a timberland property in the US South, you know, when we're drawing markets and doing work for our clients, we're typically thinking about
Paul Jeffreys (19:50)
Right.
Amanda Lang (19:56)
50 to 100 mile radius around a property. So that's really the the mills and the wood users in that area. Those are the customers.
And so the products that they're making, are the products to track, you know, if you're a timber landowner, because those are your current customers and seeing what's going to happen with those industries. Then there's also this idea of there's a lot of opportunity. There's a ton of opportunity. been talking about new technologies, which could come into play. And also in Mississippi and other areas in the US South, there's a lot of wood, a lot of timber. And so there are companies looking to these areas to locate and build new mills. And so those are some scenarios.
to look at in terms of if you're planning for the future. But I do think, you know, in terms of these big changes that have happened, the pulp industry has gotten smaller in the South, in many states. You know, that industry uses pulp wood or smaller sized trees that are managed where you plant them thicker and do more thinnings. And now some of those mills are gone. And so if you're a timberland owner and a pulp mill has closed within your market area,
Paul Jeffreys (20:42)
Mm-hmm.
Jason Watson (20:44)
Mm-hmm.
Amanda Lang (20:57)
you probably should be thinking about, how do I manage my timber now that that mill is gone or that mill has changed? What do I need to think about in the future? How do I plant my trees? How do I manage my forest to produce products for the mills that are here and what they're planning to do? In terms of thinking about lumber markets, right? The biggest use of lumber here in the United States is going into houses, building new houses or renovating houses. And we need a lot of houses. Houses are actually very expensive right now, which indicates we probably need some more to be built.
because people will need those houses. And in our outlook, we're kind of forecasting lumber demand to be pretty flat this year. Housing is a little bit uncertain, kind of been down. But we really think the next year or two or three, we're gonna be building more houses. So we do forecast that outlook to pick up.
Jason Watson (21:26)
you
Amanda Lang (21:44)
And if you think about how much wood we're using, right? We use wood every day. We have paper, we have cardboard, goodness, shipping with Amazon and other e-commerce companies. That's something that doesn't seem to be a trend that's going away. If I were to think about what's gonna happen in the next five or 10 years, are we gonna have more e-commerce or less? Probably gonna have more or the same amount. Probably not shifting back.
Paul Jeffreys (21:44)
All right.
Amanda Lang (22:05)
So there's going to be demand for those products from the pulp mills that are here and companies are expanding as well. You know, we were just talking at the beginning of a podcast about International Paper making an investment in Mississippi in a box plant.
They've also committed a big investment in the Riverdale Mill in Selma, Alabama to do some good versions there and spend money. Green Bay Packaging in Morelton, Arkansas is doing a huge project at that pulp mill to renovate it, as well as GP renovating Alabama River. And so while the pulp industry has changed and there have been mills that have been closed, companies are investing in some of the existing mills. They're basically picking some winners and losers, but there are going to be winners and there is a market. so in terms of landowners thinking about
Jason Watson (22:22)
you.
Amanda Lang (22:47)
how to manage, you know, we do have to really look at these facts and nodding more than, but there is a market, there is a future. And so thinking about what those products are and what's driving those will kind of help you make those decisions on, well, how many seedlings and what type of seedlings to plant, which is course the team's expertise on the call, you know, helping landowners make those decisions. But, you know, thinking about, you know, let's just be objective, as objective as we can, look at the world, how it is today and where we think it's going, and then try to make the best decisions we can make.
Jason Watson (23:01)
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (23:15)
Well, you just opened up a gamut there of possibilities that we could go here with this, but I wanted to go back to what you said there about opportunities. You know, I said and think sometimes I don't think I've ever seen the forest industry with as many new opportunities as there is now. it's somebody would say, well, why, how could that be? Well, we were talking about.
We were talking about, you know, new products. We were talking about technology advancing earlier and let's look at it. mean, our pulp industry that you just alluded to earlier, why is it going the way that it's going now? Well, technology has changed and we don't use all of those products that we used to use.
We don't use all those products anymore. One that comes to mind is on front of everybody's mind is newsprint. We don't use new newsprint much anymore. you know, every Sunday, every household used to get a copy of the, you know, of the, the Wall street journal, or they'd get a copy of the, you know, the Jackson newspaper, Jason, or they'd get a copy. Clarion ledger. Thank you. They'd get a copy. They'd get a copy of a newspaper and that has gone away. But.
Jason Watson (24:21)
The clarion ledger, yeah.
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (24:29)
Talking about opportunity, you know, now I think the door is open for so much opportunity. Like what you just said, Amanda, because we have the resources. We have the raw product, the round wood, as some people call it. We have the wood on the stump. We have the availability there. We have the resources and the opportunity is there to find new uses. And then also to, you know,
The world, I guess you could say, is wide open. I mean, it's coming. It's going to be there. mean, there's going to be uses found. And like you said, the housing market, mean, you know, people are going to need houses.
Amanda Lang (25:08)
Yeah, that's right. you know, another thing that's really interesting is just the energy sector, you thinking about where are we going to get our energy from in the future. You know, we're very rich in timber resources in this country. And we do already produce power from trees from a lot of places, but we could certainly do more. And that's a renewable resource, which is very interesting to a lot of people. And as a society is becoming more and more interesting to us and to our world. So that's that's another thing that we have.
Jason Watson (25:18)
Good
Amanda Lang (25:35)
in terms of the timber resource is a bioenergy resource. It's also an energy security play. In addition, everyone's talking about AI. It's kind of the real big trend right now with all these different AI models and AI technology and where it's gonna go. And we know we're gonna need data centers and those require a lot of power. And where is that power gonna come from?
And one idea could be bioenergy. We could have bioenergy plants located right next to data centers that use wood. And so that's a perfect solution, but maybe it's part of a solution. So yeah, you're right. There's a lot of opportunity with new technologies, but also some existing technologies that maybe we need to use more of or could for certain applications. That's a great use for a resource that we have that we need. We're going to need that power.
Paul Jeffreys (26:24)
Well, yeah, I mean, it's definitely wide open and great. You know, it's an exciting time. I know some people may not think that way, but it's an exciting time. what are y'all seeing as far as it working through Forisk You know, we've talked a lot about industry. We've talked a lot about markets. What are you seeing with private landowners and private landowner, you know, the steps they're taking? What are y'all seeing on the
on the forecast for that.
Amanda Lang (26:52)
Yes, so you know in terms of what landowners are doing and how they're thinking about things, know timber is a long-term investment, right? I mean when people are managing timber in the south, usually we're thinking about 25 or 30 years from planting the tree to when you're actually going to harvest all of your timber and replant That's a pretty long time, that's pretty long time horizon. So it's part of the challenge you know Paul when you're talking about forecasting earlier.
We've got to do some of that because we're going to be how we're going to plant these trees today. We're not going to really probably cut them for 30 more years. Or are we? That's a decision, right? That's a decision we get to make is how we're going to do that and when we're going to do that. We are seeing some landowners change the way they're thinking about managing their trees right now with the loss of some of the pulp markets. Some landowners are planting fewer seedlings, fewer trees per acre.
is one way. ⁓ We do a silviculture survey at Forisk where we're talking to the major landowners across the South. We also do one for the Pacific Northwest, which is active right now. But we did one for the South last year and what we found is the average trees per acre planted were 500. So landowners were planting an average of 500 trees per acre and that has trended down.
Jason Watson (27:49)
Mm-hmm.
Amanda Lang (28:04)
from 2016, I think that average in 2016 was about 575 trees per acre. And there's a wide range within that. Some landowners are planting more, some are planting less, but generally it's trending less. But part of the reason also is that the survivability is really high. Seedling survival is high. If you're planting good seedlings that have good genetic stock, that are high quality seedlings, then, and that's exactly the work that ArborGen is doing to produce these seedlings and all the different options with MCP and other things
that the team is providing. These are really good trees. And so we have a lot of confidence that they're gonna do really well. And all the work that your team and others are doing to pick the right seedlings for the right sites, all that work has been great for forestry. And so what we're seeing is that landowners are now planting maybe fewer because they're not really gonna be selling into the pulp markets. And maybe they're planning more for saw timber and thinking about how can I get to saw timber a little bit faster.
They're also thinking about things like thinnings. You know where they were maybe thinning their trees twice before that final harvest? Sometimes maybe they're thinking we might just thin once or maybe we're not thinning at all. But if we're not thinning at all then we really want to make sure we're planting these really good seedlings. Maybe they're self-pruning or maybe we're planting them in a spacing that's going to make sense for that. So really kind of thinking about how silviculturally they're going to be managing those trees.
Jason Watson (29:19)
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (29:20)
And I'm
going to let Jason, Jason, I'm going to go to you on this one here. What are you, I mean, you and I both in the last two years, year before last, your family had a reforestation project ⁓ on your family land. And this past planting season, the one we're just finishing up now, my family, we had a reforestation project and we both planted MCP.
Jason Watson (29:31)
Mm-hmm.
Paul Jeffreys (29:44)
mass control pollinated seedlings on our family land for that very reason.
Jason Watson (29:48)
Yeah, I mean, and I think Amanda, you she touched on exactly, I mean, the exact thoughts were going through my, through my head is probably also because I'm having daily conversations with people. No matter if it's, if it's the private landowner that has, you know, a hundred acres to, you know, maybe 10,000 acres or TIMO or REIT managers. ⁓ It's all, these are, these are common threads.
you know, of the conversations that we're having, we're definitely, we're seeing all those things that, that Amanda mentioned a minute ago. And it is, it is very true that we're, we are really, really blessed that I know I gave a, I gave a presentation recently, a private sector course at a university. And it was,
Actually over at Auburn University, I spoke to their class and I always have this thing that, especially if I'm speaking to students, which I do at least once a year, you probably even do more than that, Paul, but I tell them we stand on the shoulders of giants that came before us and that did tons and tons of exhaustive research to get us to where we are. in terms of the knowledge we have today, in terms of
conducting really good silviculture and ⁓ coupling that with good genetics. In the last 20 years, it's definitely, I mean, the availability and the best genotypes has skyrocketed and it's enabled us to, I think the big theme of the day is where all this has kind of come together is it's given people more options than they've ever had before.
Paul Jeffreys (31:29)
Ever. Yeah.
Jason Watson (31:29)
And because what I
heard, yeah, what I heard from Amanda a second ago too was to me that speaks of creating the maximum flexibility or optionality. You know, we don't, I mean, we don't have ⁓ perfect, like the crystal ball that everybody always references that we, we can, of course, I mean, Forisk the amount of data that they have and that they collect and that they report on is
is enormous and that's like an understatement to say everything that they put together and provided their clients. And you know, we're still having to operate on doing the best we can for the best predictions that are in forecasts that are coming our way. But certainly, well, I think what this has taught us as we were talking about some of the pulp mill closures earlier is certainly we have to be able to adapt
But it's also taught us to think about maximizing those options moving forward. Amanda mentioned trees per acre dropping, planting genotypes like MCP that have smaller limbs that mean smaller knots for boards in the sawmill. But at the same time, making sure that those trees, like with MCP, there's going to be fewer diseases, there's going to be fewer defects.
so that it does present that optionality. And one thing just to reference and not to forget it too is that I'll give, and my former mentor, John Pate, will be proud that I'm and Amanda will be too, that I'm gonna give University of Georgia some more kudos here. But our friend, Dr. Barry Shiver, was instrumental in some of this research back in the 80s and the 90s at UGA.
They were doing some really, well, it was a very big, like region-wide spacing culture density study. And what they found was that there was very little difference up to mid-rotation age between stocking levels of 400 trees per acre all the way up to like 800 trees per acre. So we've known that for 30 plus years. But the difference is we'd like to grow larger diameters.
And, you know, but it shows us that we can do so with better genetics, drop our stocking rates and still grow a very similar volume where Amanda talked about it earlier. used to, there was an old saying, know, like plant them thick, cut them quick. And now depending on where you are, that may not be the the best thing to do. So, but at least with paying attention to conducting good silviculture,
I read this actually, and Amanda's colleague Brooks Mendel had written in one of their last research quarterlies that while everybody's got a budget and we need to be careful and mindful of changes in the economy, it is still important to kind of stick to your mission and to not forget the things that make us successful. so using good silviculture,
coupling that with good genetic deployment. Being smart, certainly, about what you do. But at the same time, it gives us a lot of flexibility to operate in the markets that Amanda was discussing earlier. Because I think what we'd all love to see is some of these biochar markets for producing metal, if they start paying some of our early 2010s or mid 2010s and earlier, hopefully, prices,
If I've got MCP and they want to pay me a really high price per unit, I'm happy to see it get used as biochar. But it's all about that flexibility. can't take a tree that, I can't take a stand, I'll put it that way, that's 50 to 60 % pulpwood and make a board. I can't make lumber out of those trees.
Paul Jeffreys (34:50)
Yes, yes, yeah.
Amanda Lang (34:50)
Thank
Paul Jeffreys (35:04)
Well, it's like I've always
said, you can take a saw log and put it through a pulp mill, but you can't take the reverse of that. ⁓ You can't take a pulpwood log. Amanda talking about diversity and risk and mitigating risk and everything, correct me if I'm wrong, but the best way to mitigate risk in the timber market is to try to produce for the highest valued product.
Jason Watson (35:12)
Yeah. Right.
Paul Jeffreys (35:30)
in hopes that that's what the market will be for when that becomes mature. But at the same time, in doing so, you are setting yourself up that if that market for that highest value product is not there, but one of the other products, say chip and saw, saw logs, pulp wood is there, you can still have that optionality when you get to that point.
Amanda Lang (35:51)
Yeah, I think that's exactly right. And you know, we talked earlier about these different scenarios and forecasting and how do you forecast and how do you plan for the future? Well, when there is some uncertainty, it becomes also very important to have these options. And so maybe looking at a management strategy and, you know, a planting regime and trees per acre that give you some options. You know, maybe in your market, there's an OSB mill and there's several sawmills. So that means you would have an outlet for pulpwood. You could still look at producing some pulpwood.
You definitely want to maximize your saw timber, but maybe you don't want to plant 300 trees per acre. Maybe you want to plant something a little more so that you can have those options for those markets and also respond if things change in the future and a new market comes to you, then you can be responsive. So I do think that even now, probably more than ever, having some of those options will really help in the future navigate some of the uncertainty we're seeing. Right.
Paul Jeffreys (36:43)
Right. I
Jason Watson (36:44)
Thank
Paul Jeffreys (36:44)
know Jason and I, we have landowners from time to time that will, they will come out and they will say, I'm not going to reforest or the markets are so bad. I'm not doing anything. I didn't get, I did not get near the stumpage value for the timber that I just sold. So
I'm not even, you know, the value I got for it. I'm just not going to reforest or I'm not going to manage the next stand because the markets are so bad. What would you two say in response to that? I mean, I know what I say, but you know, like I just mentioned earlier, Jason and I just replanted with MCP and I live in North Alabama. You know, what would you two say to someone that says,
The markets are so bad, I'm just not gonna reforest. I'm just not gonna manage my timber anymore. just, you know, it's just, or I'm not gonna invest in timberland anymore.
Amanda Lang (37:37)
Yeah.
So, you know, we've certainly heard some people saying that, of course, especially in some of these areas that have had closures and a lot of things have changed very quickly. But I'll say, you know, one of the advantages of being a timberland owner is that you always have options. That land has value. You can certainly choose to do other things with your land. But it really does come down to your objectives. You know, what do you want to do? What is important to you in having the land? And while lot of landowners own land for other reasons other than
Jason Watson (37:53)
Mm-hmm.
Amanda Lang (38:06)
Of course you do want to make money off of it, but sometimes you want to hunt on the land or you want to spend time in the land that has a lot of value to you. So if that's something that you're interested in, that's a big consideration. But even outside of that, you know, with maximizing the value of your property, it does come down to dollars per acre generated and profit per acre.
And in a lot of the work that we've done, and I know there have been others that have done a lot of studies that I know that Paul, you and Jason are really familiar with, it does still pay to invest in siviculture It pays to invest in good seedlings and good management, especially if your sites need it. It will get you to growing more valuable trees quicker. The time value of money, right, where you want to grow that.
that value sooner, it has a lot of advantages to you. It still makes more sense financially to do so. And so even when markets are down or have shifted, it does still pay to do good silviculture and good management. Of course, you want to run your numbers and look at your scenarios, but it does typically still pay to do that. So that's what I would say.
Paul Jeffreys (39:10)
Jason, how would you answer the question?
Amanda Lang (39:10)
next.
Jason Watson (39:10)
Yeah. Well,
first of all, I would echo exactly what Amanda said and maybe just add that, you know, we find ourselves, it is such an interesting time. But I do, when people, and it's kind of funny, sometimes people will say that to me and I'll say, are you really sure you don't want to trees back? Now this has been in your family. Well, yes, I probably will. I'm just not,
I'm just not happy with these prices. if, look, I'm a member and I'm actually a board member of Forest Landowners Association with Scott Jones and his group. And I know that a big thing we always talk about is one of the things exactly that Amanda said was, what is your objective? What do you really want to do on your property?
When I do hear people that seem kind of adamant about not planting trees, I have ⁓ a couple of conversations or maybe different scenarios to discuss with them or just have a kind of informal conversation. But I talk about the fact that, well, if you're going to do that, please have a plan in place. Maybe it's that you really don't want to plant and you want to, you remember those days when you had open land and you were, you were, you know, farming cattle or.
⁓ You did row crops, mean, or maybe you want to build a cabin or a lake on part of the property. And those things are, I think we see those kinds of things happening sometimes. But more kind of in the context of ongoing perpetual timber management. One of the things I find that's really interesting is, having this discussion is really great, because if you think about it, what is one of the most common things you hear when people say that? They say,
they're always referencing prices that they received for stoppage pre 2008. I'll never forget a Timberland investment conference. It's probably like 2014 or 15. I think it was Mike Clutter, the late Dr. Mike Clutter stood up and said, all right, we're in the seventh year of saying it's going to be better next year. Something like that. It was something along those lines. But you know, if you stop and think about it, think about this for a second. Because we're not unlike the corn.
markets. But think about this. All of those stands that were harvested where people were getting like 45 to 50 dollars sometimes a ton for stumpage, those stands were established probably in the late 70s and early 80s. And when we really weren't even, we didn't even have good techniques for conducting good site preparation. There was a lot of windrowing where there wasn't even chemical site prep being done. They were established with
genetics, the seedling genetics that were developed probably in the 1960s or 70s to be ready to be planted in the 80s. And seedling quality was nowhere near, know Amanda referenced that earlier, seedling quality was nowhere near as refined as it is now. So I think one of the things we forget is that yes, we're definitely like, everyone would like to go back to the 45 to $50 stumpage days.
But we're kind of like agriculture. We've become a lot more productive. Some people say too productive. I don't really... We've grown too much wood. I hear that all the time. Sometimes we've done too good of a job. I know we've probably already heard that. I don't think that's really true. I think that... I mean, think while we have done a good job, I think that there's also a lot of people who have... They have done the good integrated, good silviculture and genetics.
And it's going to be just like the corn prices haven't changed since like the 1990s, but people are growing vast amount of more bushels per acre. The same is true for forestry. We're, a lot more productive per acre. think, I think we're kind of a sleeping giant. If, if the, you know, or I should say maybe when the markets do recover over the next few years, 2027 and beyond, we're really poised to see
some really good results from all the good work that's been done. So that's my glass half full spiel, Paul, but I do believe that's really true. I think we have to feel good about our position in the world timberland market in the southern United States.
Paul Jeffreys (42:58)
Well.
Exactly. and, you know, forestry has been around for, you know, I'm just going to say a long time, but in the overall scheme, it's still really in its infancy. I mean, if you forest management, forest, ⁓ siviculture for, you know, we're still, because the lot, the rotations are so long and everything. we're, we're still compared to agriculture. We're.
were a lot slower and nowhere near as far along as they are, because they have an annual crop and we have a 25, two decades, two and a half decades crop. So it does take time for that to evolve and to come along. Well, we're getting up on time here, but I would like to ask Amanda, why...
Just real quick, the collaboration across consultants, across advisors and landowners, how have you seen that as the collaboration between all facets, the industry, the landowners, the consultants, you know, we're all in the forest industry. And how have you seen that evolve over the last few years? how does that, what's the outlook for that?
Amanda Lang (44:19)
Yeah, so it's one of the things that I really love about this industry also is this collaboration and just the people because a lot of us have a common love of the land and a common, you know, desire to see the best for the land and that's a lot of fun to see that and to work with people that also share that and I think that's just a unique aspect of this industry. But yeah, I mean there is a lot of collaboration. I've seen a lot of collaboration at Forestry Association meetings. I had the pleasure of going to the Mississippi
I'm also a board member on the Georgia forestry association board. It's been really encouraging to see the work that those groups have been doing with state legislatures and seeing what support they can get for forestry. But also just the sharing of ideas with consultants and foresters and again, sharing with the landowners, hey, let's put a plan together. Like Jason was saying, what's your plan? What's your objectives? How can we think about this? Because there
does get to be a sense of there's a lot of emotion, right? We're emotional, people are emotional. And when things change a lot, people don't like change. So it's scary. You know, we resist it, we don't like it. But hey, things do change. Well, given the changes, let's look at the changes, what's happened. Let's look at where we think is going to happen. And let's put a plan together that meets your objectives. It's really valuable. And it's valuable to have also that insight, that expertise coming from folks like ArborGen that knows all about seedlings, all about how do you plant these different seedlings.
What are these strategies? How does this work on your sites? So valuable to have that knowledge. Also so valuable to have some of the industry perspective from folks that have been around me on this call. I know we've at least been around 20 years, some of us, some of us maybe a little bit longer. We've seen a lot of things. The Great Recession, when that happened in the beginning of my career.
Jason Watson (46:00)
the
Amanda Lang (46:06)
massive period of change. You we survive that. And so, yeah, things are going to change. We're going to survive it. And let's put all these pieces together. Let's put all these pieces of expertise together from these different folks and make a plan to see how we can really manage that in the future.
Paul Jeffreys (46:22)
Well, I think you hit it
there on the head, Amanda, when you said plan and, you know, I've used this before and people are going to get start rolling their eyes when they listen to the podcast hearing me say it so much. know, Abraham or Benjamin Franklin one time once said, you know, those people who fail to plan plan to fail. And, you know, one of my favorite quotes from, from Benjamin Franklin and, and
You know, that plan that you've got to have, you've got to have a plan put together. And that's where your consulting forester comes in. That's where your consultant can come in for a landowner and help a landowner get a plan together to be ready for those markets in the future. To be ready to get to that objective of creating value on your property. whether it's your main objective or whether it's not, the markets are a part of forestry and
Inevitably, if you have timberland, you're going to be looking at a timber harvest sometime in the future of that, or you're just going to let it, know, trees don't live forever. They have life cycles and they will die and that timber stand will fall apart and everything. you've got to have that level of expertise to be able to work with you as a private landowner to be able to get that plan together.
so that you can be ready to feel the need for those industry leaders that have the wood utilization facilities in your area. you know, for landowners, confidence in decision and aligning with those objectives. For foresters, you got to have the better tools, the better conversations, yield better outcomes. And for the industry, resilience, adaptability, and informed investments.
And it is just a mesh that everything has got to work together and going forward. So with that, either one of you have any closing comments that you would like to close out with before we end this episode?
Jason Watson (48:17)
Well, for me, it's been a treat. I'll say that ⁓ to be on here with, with to join you again, Paul, certainly. And, and also to have Amanda to be on here is kind of like a fellow guest with Amanda Lang because as we were talking before we did this, started the podcast, I did think that I had probably known her for around 20 years. And so for me, it's a real treat to be
alongside her to have this opportunity. We love working with Forisk and we're just very grateful. I'm very grateful to be on here and to be able to join Amanda and to join you again, Paul.
Paul Jeffreys (48:52)
Great having you.
Amanda Lang (48:53)
Yeah, thanks so much for having me, Paul and Jason. Again, it's been a pleasure to have really enjoyed the conversation, really enjoy that we have a lot of common interests personally, but also just, you know, for the listeners and just thinking about these dynamic markets and how things might seem a little bit crazy and uncertain in the future. I'll just say that, you know, I think we're still going to use wood in the future. There's a lot of uses for wood today. Just again, we're going to need homes. We're going to need cardboard boxes. We're going to need some paper.
OSB, know, all of these products we use today. And then like Paul said, there's a lot of new things on the horizon, biochar and biocarbon, ⁓ even possibly making batteries out of wood, bioenergy. So there's a lot of new uses of wood that are going to be coming right on the horizon. So I think there's a lot of reason to be optimistic. But that said, we do want to plan, we do want to forecast, we do want to be objective about what we're doing. So I think to the extent that we're doing that,
Jason Watson (49:32)
Yeah.
Amanda Lang (49:49)
we're making informed decisions and trying our best to maximize the value per acre and the revenue per acre. I think we're going to be successful in this industry.
Paul Jeffreys (49:59)
Well,
exactly. You know, forecasting is not about predicting, it's about preparing. you know, every, I don't care what you're forecasting, you're preparing because let's face it, Amanda, if you and I could predict the future, I highly doubt either one of us would be on the podcast right now. We would, I would probably be, you know, relaxing on my own Island and somewhere, you know, if, we could predict the future. that's the, the, the thing about it is nobody can predict it.
But through proper planning and great siviculture and doing what's right, you can prepare for the future. And by preparing for it, you will be sitting there when that next market, whatever it is, whatever that product is that comes out in the future, you will be sitting there ready to fill that need. ⁓ you know, in the meantime, while that product is growing on the stump,
Jason Watson (50:47)
Yeah.
Paul Jeffreys (50:52)
private landowners are also out there enjoying the land and taking care of it and managing it, enjoying the outdoors and everything else that goes along with it. So with that being said, I would like to thank you all for coming on the ArborGen TreeLines podcast. I'm your host, Paul Jeffreys.
And if you have any questions whatsoever, if you have any questions about seedlings, forest management, markets or anything like that, please feel free to reach out. Look at our website, ArborGen.com. Find your local reforestation advisor, contact them. We're all here, glad to help you, glad to walk you through this process, get you in contact with the people that you need to, and you, ⁓
need to talk to. If we can't answer your questions, we'll be glad to put you in contact with someone else that can and work with you, walk you through that process hand in hand so that you can build that legacy for your next generation. just, you know, and, you know, a working forest, a healthy forest is always a good thing. You always and the wildlife benefit from it. So again,
Thank you all for joining in and listening to this episode of the TreeLines podcast. And it's been wonderful and we will see you next time.