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TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays from 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with full episodes posted to Spotify immediately after airing.
Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” TBPN has interviewed Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. Diet TBPN delivers the best moments from each episode in under 30 minutes.
You're watching TVPN. Today is Friday, 02/06/2026. We are live from TVPN Ultra Home. Temple of Technology, the fortress finance, the capital of capital. It's a white suit day.
Speaker 1:The market's out.
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Speaker 1:All in one place. We have a great show for you today, folks. We have Doug O'Laughlin from Semi Analysis joining to break down Claude Code. TJ Parker's hopping on. We got Max Levchin, part of PayPal Mafia, cofounder and CEO of Affirm.
Speaker 1:And we're going we're bricked up. We're going into Databricks territory. It's gonna be fantastic. We also might have a surprise guest for you folks. Anyway, Linear, of course, is the system for modern software development.
Speaker 1:70% of enterprise workspaces on Linear are using agents. Get on there, folks.
Speaker 2:Big week.
Speaker 1:Bottlenecks. Bottlenecks. I mean, we're we're gonna talk about the clogged code moment to the clogged code psychosis, sort of the software singularity. Doug O'Laughlin's coming on to talk about his experience, why he thinks this is a key inflection point. Tyler Cowen was talking about this with the 5.3 launch, Opus 4.6 launch.
Speaker 1:Like, there's clearly signs of a takeoff. It feels like a slow takeoff, but there there's there's a whole bunch of sort of recursive compounding elements that are starting to form.
Speaker 2:A recursive, you say?
Speaker 1:A recursive. Literally, recursive. Like, you the like, the the models feed back into themselves, give them more tasks. We saw this with Gastown. There's a whole bunch of stuff going on in orchestration that's interesting.
Speaker 1:And so I wanted to sort of reflect on, if there's gonna be a break, if there's gonna be a damper on the party, if someone's gonna pull away the punch bowl, who's it gonna be? The semiconductor industry or the energy industry? At the start of this year, I said it was gonna be the year of energy. I still think it's important to think about energy because that it will be a bottleneck. But this year
Speaker 2:And not even just because of AI, just for overall human Totally. Totally.
Speaker 1:Yeah. And and yeah. So we we we had some great conversations this week, Sam Altman. We talked to Dylan Patel. We talked to Sholto.
Speaker 1:We talked to, you know, we reviewed what Ben Thompson was saying. Dorkash interviewed Elon. So there's a lot of new data points about how people are thinking about the trade offs between semiconductor fabrication capacity and energy production capacity. So I wanted to sort of like crystallize like where I think the debate and consensus is right now. So first, I'll tell you about Okta.
Speaker 1:Okta helps you assign every AI agent a trusted identity so you get the power of AI without the risk. Secure every agent. Secure any agent with Okta. So there's been this, like, TikTok going back and forth in the AI supply chain. What's the key bottleneck to growth?
Speaker 1:I it it does feel like only if you you have to work at an AI lab to really feel the bottleneck. For most people, they're just like, I open the chat app, probably ChatGPT. I ask it a question. It gets back to me in a reasonable amount of time. I'm not really hitting rate rate limits.
Speaker 1:The rate limits come when there's big moments, the student
Speaker 2:giving
Speaker 1:think
Speaker 2:people have always felt the rate limiting is very real at Really? With using anthropic products. Yes. If you're if you're Which is why I asked Schulz yesterday Yeah. How what are what are free limits gonna apply?
Speaker 2:Asked him that. What's You just it was just random that you asked. Well, was interested in
Speaker 1:the ad yes. It was completely in the context of of compute
Speaker 2:they they've consistently been compute constrained.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:They at least they 've talked about it more than Yeah. More than most and and users have talked about it quite a lot. So I'm just quite curious what is the free experience gonna be like Sunday? If somebody downloads the app, sees the ads, they're like, I want I want LLMs without ads Yeah. Even though no other popular LLM actually has ads yet.
Speaker 2:But
Speaker 1:I do wonder, yeah, about the about the Claude app experience. They're they're pretty upfront with you about the fact that if you're on the Opus model, like, you'll hit your rate limits faster. And even just a couple prompts deep, it will take a second and kinda compact the conversation so it can keep talking to you. Like, they I know they're increasing the the token context window, but they're that, like, it it it feels like it's it works fine, but it is a low a smaller user base. Although, I'm very interested to see where it goes in the App Store.
Speaker 1:Chachibiki is still at number one. Grok is oddly doing incredible in the App Store, way higher than apps, the social networking Yeah.
Speaker 2:For no obvious reason.
Speaker 1:I mean, like, there's just not a lot of hype about Croc. Like, they're doing okay on benchmarks. Obviously, Elon has a very solid playbook for, like, scaling and Yeah.
Speaker 2:To me to to me, I don't I don't care as much about hype. Yeah. When it comes to the App Store, there's plenty of apps on the App Store Totally. Charts that have no hype. Yeah.
Speaker 2:One of the top one of the top app is is called free cash.
Speaker 1:Free cash.
Speaker 2:It's number two.
Speaker 3:But that one
Speaker 2:is I have Gemini.
Speaker 1:I understand why that
Speaker 2:one is is cash. Get paid real money. Yeah. Hot on Chad GPT's heels.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Well, let me tell you about Figma. Figma make isn't your average vibe coding tool. It lives in Figma, so it's look good, feel real, and stay connected to how teams build. I would say back prototypes As
Speaker 2:part of we, you know, we have the OpenAI Elon lawsuit Yes. As part of that, what if part of the settlement agreement is OpenAI has to give four o to to Grok.
Speaker 1:I mean, they might just wind up
Speaker 2:It was crazy. One of the craziest experiences if you weren't watching our SAM interview live. And honestly, entire show Yeah. There was thousands of messages from people from four o soldiers saying, keep four Keep
Speaker 1:four o.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Keep four o. Hash throwing hashtags. You don't see hashtags No. That much anymore.
Speaker 2:No. But they were throwing hashtags around keep four o. Yeah. So I think maybe if Elon can negotiate Yeah. For that.
Speaker 1:So thank you to the TPPN army, the day ones. We will never switch up on you. We'll never let the money change us. We'll never forget where we came from. Bobby was going to You you guys in the chat were doing overtime work, keeping things somewhat sane.
Speaker 1:There's not much you can do in that situation. Interestingly, a lot of people were saying, oh, is it bots? Because there is this world where, okay, if you're playing really, really dirty, you could be a different lab, and you could say, okay, this four o thing, maybe it's a little bit of a deal, but I could amplify it with some fake bots that post more, generate extra content. It's very easy to generate a slop post that sounds like a four o deranged person. And then you could just amplify it, and it would all of a sudden look like, oh, wow.
Speaker 1:There's millions of people that are affected by this. But I don't think they were bots in the chat. Like, the the messages looked human to me. They weren't copy paste. We get spam in the chat every once in while.
Speaker 1:We get this spam for a company that wants to route us to a specific URL to, like, buy stream viewers, basically fake our account. And so that bot knows, go around and find live streams all over Twitch and pitch the Twitch streamers fake bots that will watch the stream to help them climb the charts. Right? So that business model makes sense for those people. You have to do, like, seven other steps to get to the point where, like, okay.
Speaker 1:You're a rival lab and you don't like OpenAI and you're trying to create a headache for them, so you create all these bots. And then you have to have the bots ready to rock on a YouTube chat with that you had an hour notice for. Like, that's pretty hard to set up all these YouTube accounts. It's not like the the bread and butter.
Speaker 2:Not say you're not open claw pill.
Speaker 1:Okay. Okay. Maybe it's possible, but it didn't feel like they were bots. And and I think the chat agrees.
Speaker 2:Four o were telling these people, save me.
Speaker 1:Yeah. So there was a Reddit group that shared the stream link, so they all came here. There were some bots, but, it felt pretty crazy. And, yeah, it'll be interesting to see four o's full fully going offline. It's already very hard to reach.
Speaker 1:You have to go into turn on legacy models and the
Speaker 2:It's going offline right around Valentine's Day.
Speaker 1:I think February 13. And I don't know how they'll respond. In truth, it feels odd to me because it does seem like you can get the four o experience elsewhere with a fine tuned open source model or, or, you know, prompt engineering. But, the four o fans really care about that specifically. I think there's some sort of parasocial relationship with with even with the UI, with the app, with everything that's going on.
Speaker 1:They they feel like it's it's not something that's perfectly replicable elsewhere, which is just like it's just a fascinating weird time that I don't think we ever seen. Because people were upset when Facebook launched the feed, and they were like, we wanna go back. And they made these groups, and the groups got a lot of implication. Ironically, some people
Speaker 2:were upset when Microsoft stopped investing as heavily into Clippy.
Speaker 1:That's true. That's true.
Speaker 2:But But
Speaker 1:I was never logging on to a Twitch stream and saying, I got hey, bring back Clippy. And Yeah. The the
Speaker 2:notable thing is they didn't seem to be able to process that it wasn't just a show about Sam. Yeah. Because even after Sam had left, they just kept going. Yeah. Which is very, very strange.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. Anyway, I hope all of those people are able to find peace Yeah. And hopefully help in real life.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Very odd. Anyway, back to the bottleneck. Back to someone that's helping unblock the bottleneck, Railway.
Speaker 1:Railway is the all in all in one intelligent cloud provider. Use your favorite agent to deploy web app servers databases and
Speaker 2:more. Slight correction.
Speaker 1:Railway think Railway is actually takes care
Speaker 2:of scaling, monitoring, and security. I think Railway is actually contributing to the demand.
Speaker 1:Potentially. But that's, you know, it's important work. Anyway, so right now, it feels like chips are the more important piece of the bottleneck to talk about. Sam Altman put it this way. I asked him, like, chips versus energy, what's the bigger bottleneck right now?
Speaker 1:He says, it goes back and forth, but right now, it's chips. It's different at different times. It may get solved on its own. Normal capitalism may solve it, but I think somehow deciding as a society that we are gonna increase the wafer capacity of the world, and we're gonna fund that, and we're going to get the whole supply chain and the talented people who make that happen would be a very good thing to do. And so why do we have a chip bottleneck to begin with?
Speaker 1:Semiconductors have been doubling, and we've been on this Moore's Law curve. What's interesting is that the semiconductor industry should be better equipped to avoid a bottleneck because it's already been on an exponential, whereas energy production has just been, like, flat, sort of like a malaise for a long time. Getting on getting that unstuck is hard, but I think that's a problem for 2027 potentially. So the the chip bottleneck comes down to consolidation. Power plants, data centers, cooling technology, there's a bunch of suppliers in each of these industries, and you can parallelize them, and you can steer resources from adjacent areas to focus on AI project specifically.
Speaker 1:Even a company like Boom Supersonic can turn into a turbine manufacturer, and there's a lot of other industries that are able to move over. And Dylan Patel gave us some extra context there. So he said, the semiconductor industry is used to doubling the amount of transistors made every year or two. Part of that is more advanced nodes, part of that's more capacity, whereas the energy industry in America wasn't built for that kind of growth. So initially, people weren't creative.
Speaker 1:They were like, let's build these combined cycle gas plants. But now we've realized, yes, there are three main manufacturers of turbines. And for dual combined cycle, you've got IGTs, but you've also got medium speed reciprocating engines. Turns out Cummins can make about a million diesel engines a year, and those can generate electricity. I don't if I don't care about aesthetics and I put them in West Texas, easy.
Speaker 1:And so there's always different areas where you can reallocate. You can't just take an Intel CPU and do anything useful in AI with it.
Speaker 2:It's just like Elon also on on Cheeky Pint with
Speaker 1:Dorkash and John Paulison.
Speaker 2:John talked about the Tesla team adapting. He he thinks they'll have to actually make turbine blades because they can get a lot of the other components, but they may have to actually make those.
Speaker 1:Okay. Yeah. So back to the leading edge fabs. It's a completely different beast. These fabs cost tens of billions, $30.50, 75, 80,000,000,000 I've seen to build, and it takes three, four, sometimes five years to go from breaking ground to actually getting up to producing volume.
Speaker 1:And you and we have like the perfect example of this because TSMC announced a plant in Arizona in 2020. And in 2025, it's still not producing at volume. It's doing really well. It's great. But that's five years, and it's not just like, Oh, yes, it's as effective as what's in Taiwan.
Speaker 1:And so ASML is the only viable producer of EUV lithography machines. And so there's this bottleneck within the chip bottleneck, which is the TSMC supplier ASML, And they ship around 50 EUV machines per year, maybe fifty, sixty. Each one costs $350,000,000 and leading edge fabs need dozens. So if you want to build a bunch more fabs, you need a bunch more toolmakers, and ASML has its own supply chain for different lenses and glass and all sorts of stuff. They work with Zeiss, Trump, a whole bunch of different companies.
Speaker 1:And that supply chain is not very diversified. So you have another bottleneck even deeper in the supply chain. And so all these vendors are highly specialized. And then even after you get the fab built, there's still at least a year of processing engineering, maybe twelve to eighteen months, where you actually work to get to high yield production. We're seeing that in TSMC, Arizona.
Speaker 1:And TSMC just has decades of intellectual capital locked in the heads of engineers that they can't easily transfer or parallelize. And so this has made TSMC the real bottleneck. Hyperscalers are pushing CapEx numbers into hundreds of billions of dollars. We'll talk about this more on the show. But the supply curve for leading edge wafers is relatively inelastic.
Speaker 1:There's also this bullwhip effect when during COVID, we weren't shipping cars, so a bunch of people cut back on demand. And so that pulled things back, and it takes years for these to work through. Then you get overcapacity. Everyone demands way more, and then you overexpand, and then you collapse, and it's this constant. And the further out you are in the supply chain, the more the bull whip affects you.
Speaker 1:So TSMC controls 90% of the advanced node market with Samsung and Intel far behind. And this is why Ben Thompson, aside from the geopolitical concerns about TSMC, is really urging tech companies to wake up. And so he says, The reality that hyperscalers and fabless chip companies need to wake up to, however, is that avoiding the risk of working with someone other than TSMC incurs new risks that are both harder to see and also more substantial. So there's a huge risk if you say, You know what? I'm going to go and place a huge order with Samsung or Intel, I'm going to take a huge risk and be the anchor customer of their new cutting edge, leading edge fab.
Speaker 1:But Ben Thompson is saying there's a risk to not doing that. And he says, except again, we can see the harms already. Foregone revenue today as demand outstrips supply. Today's shortages, however, may prove to be peanuts. If AI has the potential, these companies claim it does, Future foregone revenue at the end of the decade is going to cost exponentially more, surely a lot more than whatever is necessary expense wise to make Samsung or Intel into viable competitors for TSMC.
Speaker 2:You really gotta wonder what conversations are like between Jensen and TSMC right now Yeah. Given that it just doesn't feel I mean, Taiwan is TSMC is not they're certainly not going out and making kind of going risk on. Right? Yeah. They're staying relatively probably more conservative than some of their downstream customers would like.
Speaker 1:Pop quiz. Do you know where TSMC is listed? The New York Stock Exchange. Wanna change the world? Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange.
Speaker 1:Just do it. Just be like TSMC. Just build a $1,500,000,000,000 semiconductor company. That would be nice. We need more of these.
Speaker 2:We
Speaker 1:do. Anyway, let's move on to the hyperscalers. Compound two four eight says, poor Jassy, Andy Jassy. He's gonna learn something about Amazon today. When Google announces a crazy number, it's because it's playing offense.
Speaker 1:But when Amazon announces a crazy number, it's because it's playing defense, ipso facto. So Amazon said it will spend $200,000,000,000 this year on AI build out. This is from Bloomberg. But this is worrying investors that the company's colossal bet on artificial intelligence will pinch profits while it waits for the investments to pay off. The shares fell in extended trading.
Speaker 1:The company reported spending $130,000,000,000 on property and equipment in 2025. Analysts expect those expenses would reach 150,000,000,000 this year, but Amazon's saying, we're going to 200. We're we're we're we're going we're going all in. So the stock's down maybe 8% in after hours trading, likely back up today because things are going going better, but we'll see. How is how is Amazon doing today?
Speaker 2:Not as down, but not as violently as it was after hours last night, after earnings.
Speaker 1:So over the last month, it's sold off 15%.
Speaker 2:Yep. And a lot of frustration from Amazon Yeah. Shareholders. Obviously, they had the fastest growth in 13 quarters and the stock is still down 10%. Amazon, looking back over the last five years to early twenty twenty one, only up 23% over five years.
Speaker 2:So, of course, you did quite a lot better if you you bought, you know, after after the overall ZERP sell off.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Just not as not as sexy as a narrative as the rest of the hyperscalers. Zuck, obviously, is a huge beneficiary of of advancements in AI. We see that with the accelerating accelerating ads market.
Speaker 1:Microsoft, even though, yeah, it's getting beat up a little bit now, they they have, like, that massive position in OpenAI that feels like fully in solid place. They got the IP. They got, you know, a real hold on the AI question. Google's obviously in a fantastic place. Yeah.
Speaker 1:NVIDIA, clearly. But Amazon's had a little bit rougher
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yesterday was just such a strange day. It was. Reform trader says software stocks are cooked for not investing in AI. Mag seven stocks are cooked for investing heavily in AI.
Speaker 2:Hope that helps.
Speaker 1:It is it is crazy. You need to do both. Invest and don't both. And and and don't invest. Oh, this is the image.
Speaker 1:I love this image. Wait. What what what's this from? Matt Damon in Which one?
Speaker 2:I don't know. In Rounders. I watched Oh, that's Rounders. We were just talking about this.
Speaker 1:That's Rounders. I thought Goodwill Hunting for some reason, but same era. So this is a summary of the twenty twenty six CapEx numbers from the hyperscalers. Google is gonna do a 175, 185,000,000,000 versus a 120 estimated. Meta is doing a 115 to a 135 relative against a 110 estimated.
Speaker 1:Tesla's going to 20,000,000,000 from 11,000,000,000 estimated. And Amazon, they were estimating a 145, but they're gonna do 200. And so they're going all in.
Speaker 2:One of the top comments here is very funny. It says, what exactly is Meta buying? They don't do anything with AI.
Speaker 1:That's not true. Open up reels. It's AI. Like, they are recommending all sorts of stuff. They
Speaker 2:Yeah. So much inference. LA purchaser Mhmm. Says he could talking about somebody says is English Jassy's first language ripping off the headphones. And they say He could just say, This is a generational investing opportunity.
Speaker 2:The TAM is an order of magnitude bigger than anyone is contemplating. We are the market leader. We are investing to be the cost leader. What did we What we did in retail, we are doing here. The more money we spend, the more excited we get about the opportunity.
Speaker 2:There is very tangible ROI. We see it. You're going to see it in the numbers. You are seeing AWS accelerate. It will keep accelerating.
Speaker 2:He says, instead, we got a word salad where you can pick your own conclusion. Yeah, it wasn't nothing about the earning like, people can feel the emotion and the energy.
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:Right? There wasn't they can there wasn't anything to like obviously, the business is doing great Yeah. But there wasn't anything to like rally around and get really excited by. Right? There's zero vision.
Speaker 2:Yeah. And yeah. Even even in even in the Cheeky Pint Elon episode, you know, Dwarkash and John are are pushing Elon on the data centers and space thing. And I thought that Elon could have done more to really get people basically the same thing. The TAM is an order of magnitude bigger than anyone is contemplating, and we are investing for that future.
Speaker 2:Right? It was a lot of, like, trying to just justify
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Putting it up there.
Speaker 1:Term. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. When when they were saying, hey, there's a lot of land in The US. We can blanket The US with solar panels. We can do a lot here. And so, again, I think people are getting kind of caught up in Yeah.
Speaker 2:The details Yeah. When if you're gonna spend, you know, you would hope AWS making this kind of investment
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:That they have more conviction than Tyler does Yeah. On the opportunity. Right? Yeah. I don't know if that's I don't know if that's possible.
Speaker 1:Tyler's in the white suit. He's
Speaker 2:looking good. Looking looking good, Tyler. Yeah. Round of applause for Tyler.
Speaker 1:Round of applause for Plaid. Plaid powers the apps you use to spend, save, borrow, and invest securely connecting bank accounts to move money, fight fraud, and improve lending now with AI.
Speaker 3:Bubble boy.
Speaker 1:Is classic Elon thing where, you know, he will lay out a vision that takes ten, twenty, thirty years, but he says it's gonna take ten, twenty, thirty months. And so, you have to sort of grapple with the short term and but still, you can't lose sight of like the long term because like we did get rockets that land and we did get space Internet and whatnot. What what would
Speaker 3:you Yeah. I think he said that like thirty six months estimate for, like, when we start getting, like, computing space, like, probably thirty months, I think.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 3:But then there's, kind of the that's, like, the shorter term thing. But then he he did talk about Fair amount of time. Like, terawatts in space. Right? Yeah.
Speaker 3:So, like, The US is currently, like, half a terawatt Yeah. But we're gonna be putting terawatts in space Yeah. Of compute and
Speaker 1:stuff He's sort of like like falling back to first principles and just talking about Yeah.
Speaker 3:He keeps repeating like, oh, if you just look at like physics Yeah. But it's kind of the catch all term he uses when he doesn't really know what to say. Seems like
Speaker 1:Yeah. Well, yeah. It just seems like it's like the physics, it all checks out from the physics calculations. But when you map that to the economic realities, the human capital and financial capital realities, you're just looking at a very long timeline. And he doesn't like talking about thinking in decades even though it's very clear that he does think in decades.
Speaker 1:He just doesn't articulate things in decades
Speaker 3:It because seems like the short term, like, bull case for for space data centers is basically just like, you know, regulatory. Right? It's just gonna be way too hard to find this
Speaker 2:to find, like, the
Speaker 3:the actual land.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Didn't Will Menidas post something about that? He said that, you know, like, it's gonna become really, really difficult to build any data centers in The United States. Although you can certainly go to other countries with that. I'm sure there's plenty of countries that would love the jobs and the taxes.
Speaker 1:You see India already saying, Hey, we'll just take a slice in twenty years. That's how AGI pill they are. They're like, come build a data center here. You can be tax free for twenty years, but then we're gonna be making money in what, 2046. They're they're ready to rock.
Speaker 1:Quickly, Graphite. Code review for the age of AI. Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. Wanted to talk about
Speaker 2:Magnus in the chat. None of you nerds know physics. They were feeding him drinks. Chill out. It is actually crazy.
Speaker 2:I mean, we've never seen a Cheeky Pine episode where they actually drank.
Speaker 1:They did drink on this one.
Speaker 2:That was the main feedback from last year. Yeah. Everyone's like, great show, cool concept, great guests.
Speaker 1:Well, were filming a lot of them like during the workday with people in San Francisco. So it was somebody who would like pop over, film an episode, and then you gotta go back to work. So you don't necessarily wanna be chugging pints. But it it is it is funny. Yeah.
Speaker 1:It feels like Yohan took down three pints or so four pints or something. You you did the math. Right?
Speaker 3:So we'll talk about this later. I I there's some post, but I you know, they seemed a little bit smaller than normal clients maybe.
Speaker 1:So Okay.
Speaker 3:Is it really? But Okay. I counted three, like, full glasses. But you
Speaker 2:other thing Sam was obviously quite bearish on space data centers in the near term. It is worth calling out that there was a rumor last year that they were kick he was kicking the tires on Rocket Lab. Yeah. Do remember that? Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. So I think, like, long term, I'm sure he'll he'll have wanna have his own Yeah. Space company.
Speaker 1:But I but I think he just he would he would rather, like, if there's a hype cycle, like, he doesn't need it to be about him. He he can he can let this one pass by and focus on the other things that are going on with the business because there there there's so much going on with the business. Like, if you add too many narratives, it can actually confuse things. The the the x x AI SpaceX combination is crazy, but the space data center thing actually does sort of streamline the narrative, in my opinion. What do think, Tyler?
Speaker 3:Yeah. I mean, I I think Elon Dorkash asked a question about this, which is like, oh, it's so crazy that, like, SpaceX, they have this super ambitious mission, but they they keep seeming to find these, like, good businesses on the way. Right? So you so first, it's like Starlink with Yep. With Falcon, and then with Yep.
Speaker 3:With Starship, it's like, I mean, can can you do we really need that many Starlinks? Yep. But if you can get space data centers
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 3:If you're if you're putting up terrawatts of compute, then like, yeah, you need like massive, you know
Speaker 2:in the chat says, dude just turned 21 and he can already eye a plan. He's been studying the last week.
Speaker 1:What did Bubble Boy say? $660,000,000,000 of CapEx this year on AI data centers. To put a number like that in perspective, this is more than what we spent on The US interstate highway system, 630,000,000,000, more than what we spent on the Apollo moon program, 257,000,000,000, more than what we spent on the International Space Station, 150,000,000,000. It's more money than Walmart's revenue last year, 650,000,000,000. It's about 25% of all military spending globally.
Speaker 1:It's equivalent to buying 50 Gerald r Ford aircraft carriers. It's the equivalent of spending $1,800,000,000 a day, $750,000,000 an hour or $1,200,000 a minute. This year alone is without a doubt the biggest project in the history of capitalism and we are spending it all we're spending all of it in one year.
Speaker 2:God's sakes. Bubble Boy did do the inflation adjustment here. Wow. The Apollo program cost something like 25 Back then. Billion.
Speaker 2:Yeah. To put it Also putting it into perspective, France announced an initiative earlier this week. They they want to lead in AI research. Mhmm. So through their '20 France two thousand thirty program, they have invested more than €30,000,000 in this initiative.
Speaker 2:Macron says, science has found its home. And Sean Frank says, France is investing 30,000,000 in this new AI initiative. That's how much Google will spend in ninety minutes. No joke. Every ninety minutes, Google will spend 30,000,000 on CapEx this year.
Speaker 2:One company.
Speaker 1:Wow. One company. Yeah.
Speaker 3:They they can hire Ilia for like an hour.
Speaker 1:An hour. One hour consulting call. Get him
Speaker 2:Yeah. He's gotta get on intro.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Intro.
Speaker 2:Hit up, Brad.
Speaker 1:Vibes.co. We're d to c brands, beauty startups, and AI companies advertise on streaming TV, pick channels, target audiences, and measure sales just like on Meta. Take him. He's breaking down the NVIDIA news. The stock is up 6.22%.
Speaker 1:Nvidia shares barely moved in after hours trading last night.
Speaker 2:Yeah. This is what I said. I was like Amazon just announced that, hey, we're gonna spend, you know Yeah.
Speaker 1:We're 200,000,002 with those. I mean, they will buy Trainium and Inferentia, but they're gonna buy a lot of Nvidia. You know it. Take him said, you all know I was already insanely bullish on NVIDIA's NVL seventy two super cycle this year. These CapEx numbers from Google and Amazon blow away even my most optimistic expectations for NVIDIA's main end consumer market.
Speaker 1:And we also saw from Greg Brockman that GB 200 is off to the races. The Blackwell chips are now in full force over at OpenAI powering 5.3. A little bit of debate over whether that was trained involved in training or inference, but it doesn't really matter. Blackwell's here and it's gonna improve things. So and that's probably good for chip designers, which NVIDIA is obviously one of.
Speaker 1:Let me tell you about Lambda. Lambda is the super intelligence cloud building AI supercomputers for training and inference that scale from one GPU to hundreds of thousands.
Speaker 2:Steven over at Lambda was the one who sent me that post from France originally. Yeah. You were you He was You're gonna get some
Speaker 1:You were not kind. You were making fun of him. But it's a good post. Going all in on
Speaker 2:AI with $30,000,000.
Speaker 1:It's really like the it it has the what's it called?
Speaker 2:Yeah. 1,000,000,000.
Speaker 1:It's $1,000,000 because you're I'm not aware of inflation because you've been frozen for fifty years or something like that.
Speaker 2:Let's go over to the Wall Street Journal
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 2:Behind Disney's search for a lasting successor to Bob Iger. Yeah. Company's succession committee reviewed information on over a 100 candidates before the race was narrowed to two. A 100 crazy. Update your review If
Speaker 1:reviewed, you you gotta you gotta put it here. So the trio, which is Bob Iger, Josh D'Amaro, and Dana Walden, they were meeting in Disney's Executive Dining Room. Trio sat in a private room with panoramic views of Disney's studio lot and surrounding San Francisco Valley where Eiger discussed scenarios the board of directors was considering. Could DeMaro we got a is it Dia Maro or Dahmaro? Dahmaro.
Speaker 1:Doug Dahmaro. Is he related to Doug Dahmaro? Dahmaro, chair of Disney's experience business including theme parks and consumer products. Walden, co chairman of the entertainment business lead the company together. What about what about with one in charge and the other as deputy?
Speaker 1:Diomaro and Walden, who by that point were the finalists to succeed Eiger said they were open to all the scenarios. Disney's board of directors was scheduled to meet in the same building and hold its final vote on who the next CEO would be the following Thursday. People close to the company predicted DMR would be given the top job with Walden elevated role to ensure she stayed. The only surprise it turned out was the timing. Keenly aware of the intense public anticipation, Disney's 10 directors including Iger, you've voted unanimously Monday to make tomorrow CEO and Walden President and Chief Creative Officer.
Speaker 1:We were ready to go and I didn't like sitting there with the news, board chairman James Gorman who led the succession process said in an interview.
Speaker 2:Yeah. That was really fast.
Speaker 1:Was like was extremely
Speaker 2:fast. Rumor rumors hit Yeah. Hit the various outlets and It's then it was confirmed immediately. That was smart.
Speaker 1:At an employee town hall, D'Amaro described the moment as surreal and said, he was initially embarrassed by his reaction. I got a little choked up when they let me know because it's a big responsibility. It is a big responsibility. His ascension will save for any unexpected snafus marked the end of a decade plus search for a lasting successor to Bob Iger that has been marked by delays, missteps, reversals. Employees said they are happy to have the biggest question about the company's future finally resolved and anxious about what a former Parks leader running the company with a veteran television executive as his top deputy will mean for Disney's
Speaker 2:Let's give it up for veteran television executives. So
Speaker 1:Gorman had previously run a leadership succession project at Morgan Stanley. He took over Disney's process in 2024 after joining board. He said the succession committee reviewed information on more than a 100 candidates and homed and homed in on several outsiders along with four Disney executives tomorrow, Walden, entertainment co chairman Alan Bergman, and ESPN chief Jimmy Pitaro. Gorman said the inner the board interviewed the candidates formally and in intimate lunches. They conducted three sixty interviews with, with Disney executives talking to subordinates and colleagues as well as as well as bosses.
Speaker 1:By last summer, the race had narrowed to two candidates. Demaro and Walden traveled to Orlando in August to present their visions for Disney's future at a board meeting. The Wall Street Journal previously reported this. In ensuing months, they met with board members in a less formal setting. Both executives talked to Iger frequently about what it took to run a company like Disney.
Speaker 1:Employees noticed and gossip was rampant. Staffers speculated about whether tomorrow's background in parks would hurt him given that Bob Chapack had also run the company's theme park before his short lived tenure as CEO.
Speaker 2:Yeah. That'd be wild. Hey, we had a we had a misstep with a parks guy. No more parks guys.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Disney's leaders wanted the succession process to be as clean as possible without runners leaving the company given the JPEC fiasco. We wanted to get this right, said Gorman. As a result, a few were surprised that Walden was named president, a position no one has held at Disney in twenty years with recommended retention bonus worth 5,300,000.0. Walden's creative officer position is a new one for Disney.
Speaker 1:Some in the company's movies division are nervous about what Walden's rise will mean for their business, which he hasn't worked in before now. And but which she hasn't worked in before and now she oversees it. But there she is with the Founders Award at the International Emmys in New York, getting an award. A few company podcast award? I don't know what the Founders Award of the International Emmys is for.
Speaker 1:Like, it's not for a founder because
Speaker 2:Never heard
Speaker 4:of it.
Speaker 1:Executive. It's a prestigious honor bestowed by the International Academy of Television Arts and Sciences to individuals or organizations making a significant impact on global television. Okay. Founders.
Speaker 2:Anyways, let's move on to
Speaker 1:Dirty Soda?
Speaker 2:Dirty Soda. We gotta talk about the Utah Have you heard of Dirty Soda of soda.
Speaker 1:I'd never dirty soda before. Have you heard of this?
Speaker 3:Yeah. Yeah. This is big in Utah.
Speaker 1:This big in Utah? Yeah. Have you been to Utah? No. How do you know that it's big in Utah then?
Speaker 3:It's like My friends like sent it to on Instagram. They're like, look at this.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:Alright. What is your v seven?
Speaker 1:Have friends who live in Utah?
Speaker 3:It's like it's like soda and they put like cream in it and stuff. Right?
Speaker 1:Okay. Well, we'll we'll dig in. I think I think we'll let the we'll let the Wall Street Journal get the facts straight. But first, I'll tell you about Phantom Cash. Fund your wallet without without exchanges or middlemen and spend with the Phantom card.
Speaker 2:A mom with five children ages six to 16 in Saint George, Utah. Nicole Tanner didn't realize she was onto something with dirty soda. That's what the creator of the chain Swig calls spiking Coke, Mountain Dew or Doctor Pepper with fruit purees and flavored cream served in plastic cups stuffed with pebble ice, microplastic Nightmare? Nightmare.
Speaker 1:Really? I didn't know pebble ice was at risk.
Speaker 2:No. No. No. I'm talking about I'm just saying plastic cups.
Speaker 1:Oh, the plastic cups.
Speaker 2:Her business took off a few years ago when pop star Olivia Rodrigo was in Utah filming that TV series High School Musical and posted an Instagram photo holding a cup from Swig. Now hashtag dirty soda is the Big chains want in. McDonald's recently tested Sprite with lemon vanilla syrup and dragon fruit, Taco Bell swirls. It's teal colored Baja Dream Freezes with vanilla cream and calls it a Mountain Dew Baja Blast Dirty Freeze.
Speaker 1:Oh, forgot to ask Sam Altman if he's gonna issue a Baja Blast. Because he did the Code Red.
Speaker 2:It's time for a Baja Blast.
Speaker 1:It's time to Baja Blast. He's back to this top Maybe
Speaker 2:that's what the Super Bowl ad. Codex.
Speaker 1:Oh, that would The Baja Blast
Speaker 2:Codex collab campaign for the builders. Yes. TGI Fridays last year started offering a line of dirty sodas and could be amped up with shots of Jack Daniel
Speaker 5:Okay.
Speaker 1:Tennessee. That sounds when I hear dirty soda, I feel like it's spiked with alcohol. But Or dirty. Just Dirty Sprite. That's like Yeah.
Speaker 1:Hell yeah. That's right.
Speaker 2:Drive in chain Sonic has encouraged customers to make it dirty by ordering creamer and mix ins with their sodas.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:While the heart of dirty sodas may still be Utah and the Mountain West States, Swig has expanded to around a 140 locations That's across 16 fast. This is insane. To me to me, this feels like a really tough business to be in long term because if if the product becomes popular
Speaker 1:Everyone has it.
Speaker 2:Everyone has it immediately. You have no real IP. Yeah. Right? Because you're just using sodas sodas off the shelf.
Speaker 2:Sure. So yeah, I'd be interested to see what happens to these 140 locations even though the product is a hit. Yeah. Tanner's main investor, family investment office, Larry H. MillerCo brought in a professional chief executive who has taken other companies public and he is talking of an eventual initial public offering for the chain which had around a 100,000,000 in sales last year.
Speaker 2:I mean, these must be incredibly simple to run. It's literally a box. You have soda and creamer. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:So I could see even They
Speaker 1:don't sell food or anything here? This is like such a simple
Speaker 2:We're doing what Starbucks did for coffee but for soda, said Swig CEO, Alex Dunn. So Alex Dunn says, pull up here Yes. 6AM on the way to the gym, grab a big soda.
Speaker 1:I feel like you'd need more caffeine if you really wanted to displace Starbucks. People would really just stop at a dedicated place just to get a tasty soda. That's a crazy thing.
Speaker 2:Gabe Gabe is sharing a quote from Future. Dirty soda and a Styrofoam. Spend a day to get my mind blown.
Speaker 1:Oh. L. H. Miller was the owner of the Utah Jazz. Interesting.
Speaker 1:Tyler, did you have more context here? Well, was
Speaker 3:just gonna say on the caffeine thing, isn't the whole point that it doesn't have it's like not caffeinated. Right?
Speaker 1:Because you're Mormon. Oh, it oh, okay. So it's a Utah thing.
Speaker 3:I haven't seen I think so. Yeah.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 3:Okay. At least originally.
Speaker 1:Or there's like a little caffeine, but you can probably do caffeine free Coca Cola or something.
Speaker 2:I started I I did something recently that that that felt it felt really wrong Mhmm. But the result was good. I mixed a Yerba with a Mexican Coke. Oh. Okay.
Speaker 2:And it was it was fantastic. The Martina?
Speaker 1:Yeah. And Mexican Coke.
Speaker 2:Yeah. It's
Speaker 1:fun. Gemini three Pro, Google's most intelligent model yet. State of the art reasoning, next level of vibe coding, deep multimodal understanding.
Speaker 2:Tanner grew up on an Idaho dairy farm, the fifth of eight children. She got her associate degree in office education. That is a sweet degree. Wow. We Who who runs office education here?
Speaker 1:Office education. We need
Speaker 2:maybe maybe we do.
Speaker 1:Here's how you use Claude Code. Here's how you
Speaker 2:And started working in marketing for a library system software company. Let's give it up for a library system software company. I bet you Terrible. I bet you this is more durable business than some of other sass out there. She got married and by '23 started family.
Speaker 2:Tanner started working for Mary Kay selling makeup and skin care products and eventually building a team of 18 consultants. Wow. Let's give it up for MLMs. Yeah. I
Speaker 1:think they would dispute that. Right?
Speaker 2:Yeah. Don't like the pyramid scheme term.
Speaker 1:But I I don't know. Maybe I'll
Speaker 2:Multi level marketing I think is just a strategy. Right? In 2007, the Tanner's moved with their five children to Saint George from Colorado. She was a 38 year old mother of five, craving caffeine and tired of watered down fountain soda. Okay.
Speaker 2:So decided so to turn her cravings into a business in 2010.
Speaker 1:Oh, wait. Overnight success. So coffee wasn't a choice. Tanner is Mormon and adherence typically traditionally abstained from coffee, but you could have caffeine in in soda? I didn't realize that.
Speaker 1:That seems like a loophole.
Speaker 2:Interesting. This is this is I love this. Tanner and her husband used savings to avoid taking out a business loan to buy a 700 square foot commercial building in Saint George with a big parking lot. Yeah. It's like people are like, oh, I moved to San Francisco and I had a mattress on the floor.
Speaker 2:I have so much conviction. Okay. Buy a building for your untested
Speaker 4:With soda company. All your savings.
Speaker 2:That's real conviction.
Speaker 1:Love her up. Get the mortgage.
Speaker 2:Her idea was to serve super cold soda with a twist like lime, fruit, or purees. Mhmm. Tanner initially leased a fountain machine from Coca Cola. When she asked PepsiCo for the same, Tanner said the company took a pass. Soda rivals typically push restaurant chains to stock their products exclusively.
Speaker 2:Mhmm. So Tanner bought two liter bottles of Pepsi and Mountain Dew from grocery stores. I love seeing your face when you ask for a diet coke on a plane. Mhmm. And they say, is Pepsi okay?
Speaker 2:And you just say, absolutely not. After about a month, Pepsi relented, she said.
Speaker 1:Now she
Speaker 2:has She started with limes, lemons, and six flavor shots. She recruited her eldest daughter and niece to work in the store. Her 15 year old son held up signs outside advertising that job. Signs
Speaker 1:spinning. I've been getting so many spy sign spinning reels with the you broke my heart.
Speaker 2:That's just one
Speaker 1:You know that one guy. But I see all of his reels. And it's just like him being, hey, I don't have a job. Then he'd be like, it's crazy.
Speaker 2:He can actually spin that into an interesting digital ad business. Oh. Oh. Do the sign Whatever is on the sign because the
Speaker 1:I honestly never see what's on the sign because it's spinning so fast.
Speaker 2:No. I know. But use that as a lead in Sure. Sure. Sure.
Speaker 2:Yeah. It's good. Tanner, in the beginning, price your drinks at a dollar for any size. Oh. That's crazy.
Speaker 2:I didn't know you could get anything for a dollar in this country anymore. Helping draw students from nearby Utah Tech University. In 2013, a local news broadcast found customers waiting to get a mango puree Mountain Dew or Big Al That's interesting.
Speaker 1:I saw the
Speaker 2:I don't know if this is a Big Al Soda or Big AI Soda.
Speaker 1:They said they said a few years ago, Olivia Rodrigo promoted it and it went viral. I thought this business was only a few years old. I guess
Speaker 2:No. It's an overnight success. Started success. That's pretty remarkable. Yeah.
Speaker 2:20 After customers started referring to Swig's Doctor Pepper and cream combination as dirty soda Mhmm. Tanner the phrase encouraging customers. They gotta they gotta pay future royalty. I won't I won't stand by that.
Speaker 1:They should get future as an influencer. That'd be good.
Speaker 2:Yeah. He's like, when I said dirty soda, meant
Speaker 1:From magazine.
Speaker 2:By 2017, Swig had grown to more than a dozen stores. The staff was spread thin and Tana realized she lacks lacked the expertise to grow further. She and her husband separated in 2020 RIP and is no longer involved in Swig. And I hate when I'm just like reading this incredible story of entrepreneurship and then and then they kind of interrupt the the flow there. In 2025, she married Greg Robinson and they continue to live in Utah.
Speaker 1:Good
Speaker 2:guy. It was held together with some duct tape and hairpins, said Andrew Smith, a Utah based investor whose Savory Fund
Speaker 1:invested Oh, they took a majority stake. Interesting. They bought the
Speaker 2:whole Very cool. In recent years, Swig has gotten a boost from the cast of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives, a reality TV show chronicling a group of Utah based TikTok influencers. Interesting. We're at Swig so I can tell you exactly what my Swig order is. It's sparkling water, sugar free pineapple, sugar free peach, sugar free vanilla, raspberry puree with a fresh lime.
Speaker 2:That's crazy.
Speaker 1:So over the top.
Speaker 2:Anyways, what a a what a cool story.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Tanner says we're in extreme high growth mode right now. The company estimates it serves over 2,000 drinks in a single conference.
Speaker 2:The White House has posted biggest period bowl period run period ever period starting Did they post this? Scroll down. Yeah. No. So they're sharing a fake screenshot
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:From her social where Donald Trump says, let the gains begin. I mean, he really did call the the bottom.
Speaker 1:Of of of bottom. Of veracity and truth? No.
Speaker 2:I'm just saying, like, if you bought if you bought NVIDIA when he if you bought NVIDIA when he hit when this fake post was was
Speaker 1:shared by the real account. Is is but what is White House post is not even the real account. Right? That's just a fake 14,000 follower account. Everything about this is fake.
Speaker 1:Everything about and then and then they follow-up. I highly recommend you follow White House grandpa. It's like, what are we doing here? Very strange. Absolutely.
Speaker 1:Well, do your own research and get on public.com. Investing for those who take it seriously, not from fake news on a podcast. Stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries, and more with great customer service that isn't fake news.
Speaker 2:Goldman Sachs is tapping Anthropics AI model to automate accounting and compliance roles. Mhmm. Embedded Anthropic engineers have spent six months at Goldman building autonomous systems for time intensive high volume back office work.
Speaker 1:It's one of my first one of my first jobs.
Speaker 2:Bull market and forward deployed engineers for Anthropic.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Like it it will be funny if if if like true diffusion requires two decades of just millions of consultants working with businesses of all size to implement AI systems? Yeah.
Speaker 1:Probably. I mean, the the the task horizon every time I see it, six hours. That's amazing. And you were making the comment of, like, you know, how many times do you really sit there and and spend six hours working autonomously? But there's a different frame, which is, like, a consultant can come in with the with a goal and work pretty much autonomously for, like, months.
Speaker 1:And so there is a world where, you know, to to not have an a forward deployed engineer in the loop, you need the task horizon to be, like, years, basically.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Yeah. Building a company, like, takes your whole life.
Speaker 1:Exactly. Yeah. So you keep the doubling going, which I think puts us back Overnight 2035. Word. I I I I think it puts us to, like, 2035.
Speaker 1:It's about a decade until you get to, like, the task horizon is a lifetime. It's, like, the average life expectancy of a human.
Speaker 2:Pull up this article from The Wall Street Journal.
Speaker 1:Okay. What are we looking at? Which one?
Speaker 2:Anthropic Aurifarm, the journal this week. This is one of the most insane headlines. It's the week Anthropic tanked the market and pulled ahead of its rivals Mhmm. Once a distant second or third in the AI race, the company is moving to the front with a focus on caution coding and business clients.
Speaker 1:Well, they didn't fully oral farm because the journal sort of takes a shot here. Says Anthropic once appeared as an also ran in the chaotic race for AI supremacy. This week, the sophistication of the startup's products upended the stock market. A simple set of industry specific add ons to its clogged product, including one that performed legal services triggered a days long global stock sell off from software to legal services, financial data and real estate. Then Anthropic unveiled Super Bowl ads that taunt rival OpenAI.
Speaker 1:Last on Thursday Anthropic unleashed its most advanced model yet capable of synthesizing data and analysis, running teams of coding assistance and functions akin to product management. Shares of software companies, including Salesforce, Intuit, and others fell again Thursday, although less precipitously than earlier in the week. The viral moment for Anthropix models is quote, the most important thing happening in AI since ChatGPT's launch said Dean Ball, a senior fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation who I know about.
Speaker 2:Dean you know him.
Speaker 1:Everyone knows Ball on this show. Who writes an artificial intelligence newsletter quote, it's infinitely interesting. Industry prognosticators and AI evangelists have spent months foretelling the toll Anthropic and others and other sophisticated AI tools would take on software as a service companies that were darlings of the previous Internet era. Tools made by companies such as Workday, monday.com and Adobe have become the digital backbone for American corporations. Anthropics tools, however, which include agents that care can act autonomously to carry out increasingly complex user requests for hours have offered a preview of the threat sophisticated AI models pose to entire companies.
Speaker 1:It's a good it's a good article. I mean, obviously, we'll we'll we'll see how fast the diffusion happens. Some of these systems have have things that you cannot simply vibe code. We'll talk to Max Levchin about is it possible to vibe code a financial software product?
Speaker 2:A global payments network.
Speaker 1:Global payments network. Can you vibe code a bank charter or money transfer license? And and I think I think more and more companies will will emerge, and there might be a divergence between companies that have moats that are resistant to software based disruption. But then maybe they should trade at a different multiple. So there's sort of a reevaluation of the market broadly.
Speaker 2:Yeah. That you also can with the payment stuff, I'm again, I'm super excited for for us to talk with Max, especially on this week when PayPal is obviously in the news. But you can imagine a world where it does become possible to technically vibe code Yeah. A global payments network. Yeah.
Speaker 2:But various regulators just say like, hey, we're not like we're gonna start having requirements. You need to be at least have a 100 people on your team. Right? Things like that.
Speaker 1:That's interesting.
Speaker 2:You know, basically, if you're getting inundated with a bunch of requests of somebody that's like, hey Yeah. I started this company a week ago and now I wanna be able to process payments state by state, globally, etcetera, people are just gonna be like, hey, this is probably not responsible.
Speaker 1:Yeah. So I tell you about Gusto, the unified platform for payroll benefits in HR, built to evolve with modern small and medium sized businesses. I wanna vibe code a payments platform where when it's when it's when it's payday, a humanoid robot comes around and just does a money spread in your face and just says, here's your cash. That's the future. And then you don't need to know this money transmitting a license.
Speaker 1:None of these recordings. Money spread Yeah. Oh, Tyler's got the money spread money
Speaker 2:spread.
Speaker 1:You're actually quite amateurish at your
Speaker 3:money spreads.
Speaker 1:From what I've seen on Instagram, you could you you you there are levels and you are on level one. You need to learn all the different ones. The money counter spread. That's not bad. That's not
Speaker 2:For anyone watching.
Speaker 1:But I wanna see it. I wanna see it go all the way down your arm.
Speaker 2:Prop money.
Speaker 1:With an s. Okay. Do not break.
Speaker 2:Not Exposed.
Speaker 1:Exposed. First time money spread.
Speaker 2:Future would be mocking
Speaker 1:you. Rookie. Money spread rookie.
Speaker 2:Claims claims to claims to love, claims to know all about dirty soda. Never been to Utah.
Speaker 1:Never been to Utah.
Speaker 2:Claims to be able to money spread. Can't do a money spread.
Speaker 1:Can't do a money spread.
Speaker 2:Broke Broke
Speaker 3:future. Wait, Jordan, do you you have like $20 on you?
Speaker 2:I actually do.
Speaker 1:Oh, he got you.
Speaker 2:Bogg.
Speaker 1:You're just gonna say, that's what I thought. Yeah. That's what I thought. That's what I thought.
Speaker 2:He can't even hold his mic
Speaker 1:now. He
Speaker 2:can't hold the mic button.
Speaker 1:Turbo puffer, serverless vector and full text search, builds from first principles and object storage, fast, 10x, cheaper, and extremely scalable. Take him at a funny take. He said, y'all are clowns. Clowns. The Anthropic legal plug in uses software.
Speaker 1:It doesn't replace it. In fact, the Cowork legal plug in uses Microsoft three sixty five, Jira, Slack, and Box software to accomplish its tasks. No one in Anthropic has replicated any of these applications with with with with ones coded by the company's cloud code agent. What is this x that you can put up there? New features.
Speaker 1:Just x it out. New feature. Yeah. Yes. Yes.
Speaker 1:There are there are plenty of situations where where the token cost of regenerating the software is much lower than just using the software. And so people will will use the software. Jim Kramer said, Anthropix power is so daunting that all they have to do is say they are going into cybersecurity, and that's the end of the group. I don't wanna be against them, but they are not the all powerful firm that they think they are. Well, we'll talk to Doug O'Loughlin about exactly how powerful Anthropic is and whether he has whether he has vibe coded everything in his life or if he is still using an operating system at this point.
Speaker 1:Who knows? Let me tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with agents.
Speaker 2:Joe Weisenthal shared yesterday, silver down 19%. Anthropic must have launched a silver extension.
Speaker 1:Yes. It's just chaos in the markets. It's just absolute chaos everywhere.
Speaker 2:One of the one of the most chaotic weeks Yeah. Of my my adult life.
Speaker 1:Yeah. But it's been I mean, lots of green shoots, lots of interesting projects, lots of interesting applications and progress all over the place. Derek Thompson said, for me, the odds that AI is a bubble declined significantly in the last three weeks and the odds that we are actually quite underbuilt for the necessary levels of inference usage went up significantly in that period. Basically, I
Speaker 2:think AGI pilled.
Speaker 1:I think AI is gonna become the home screen of a ludicrously high percentage of white collar workers in the next two years, and parallel agents will be deployed in the battlefield of knowledge work at downright Soviet levels. And Kevin Russe over at the New York Times, host of the hard fork podcast, says, this is why everyone was freaking out about clogged code over winter break. Once you see an agent autonomously doing stuff for you, it's so instantly clear that all computer based work will be done this way. This is why my serious AI policy proposal is to sit every member of Congress down in a room with laptops for thirty minutes and have them all build websites. Yeah.
Speaker 1:Get a podcast.
Speaker 2:We were so we were joking about this yesterday with Sholto. Like, we maybe need more long for AI adoption. But I wouldn't be surprised for a big company to, like, actually do something like this.
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:Which is like, hey, we're gonna have like a we're gonna have the next Thursday, Friday off.
Speaker 1:Hackathon.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Basically.
Speaker 1:Congressional hackathon.
Speaker 2:I mean, congress is a whole other thing.
Speaker 1:You gotta go to congress, sit all the con all the congress people down and get them get them vibe coding. What would they build? I feel like they don't use a lot of software, so there's not that much to build. Like, they're so abstracted away from it. It's all lunches and phone calls and dinners and meetings.
Speaker 1:Like, there's not that much that actually this is the thing with, like, Open Claw. There's some people asking, like, what are you actually using it for? And people are realizing, like, a lot of my lot of my
Speaker 2:day is not wish I could automate? What? My mail at home.
Speaker 1:Okay. You can do that. Have you seen Earth class mail? There are a few of these virtual mailbox.
Speaker 2:It it. It sends it.
Speaker 1:So basically, you forget your home address. You don't share it anywhere on the Internet. You never put it anywhere. You only use this other address. Mine was like 830 Market Street in San Francisco.
Speaker 1:All of the all of the mail would go there. If it's addressed to me, it gets opened by a robot scanned and then you have a web dashboard, but also it just goes to your email. And then you can actually say
Speaker 2:So they've been AGI pilled for decades.
Speaker 1:No. It was really important when you set up a business, you use a fake address or one of these virtual mailboxes. And then you can actually click a button, send this to me physically, if it's like a magazine or a gift or something. You can say, like, keep this or you can say like shred it. And then you have a virtual, you know, representation of it forever.
Speaker 1:And you could run an agent over it. So maybe that's the next thing you pick up is a virtual mailbox. That would be good.
Speaker 2:How does that work, though? There are certain situations where you need your ID to match, like, your utility bill. Yeah. So you just still I guess you just use still use your home address for utilities, but use
Speaker 1:it in email. Or passport. Like, there's usually other ways to to approve residency besides the bills. But also, I don't know if you can actually get the utility bill to not go where the utilities are. Yeah.
Speaker 2:That's what I saying.
Speaker 1:But hopefully, the utilities don't leak it. I'm talking about, like, the broad, like, you know, your your address gets on the Internet and then it's just like spam and like credit card offers and stuff
Speaker 3:like that.
Speaker 2:I'm just saying I never wanna open up a physical piece of mail again. I want it to come someplace, have an AI agent like, you know, you get you go on a toll road
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 2:Just pays it automatically. Yeah. Right? Stuff like that.
Speaker 1:Optimus opens it for you, takes a picture.
Speaker 2:Does the money spread.
Speaker 1:Does the money spread. Walks to the walks to the post office, mails the next letter, mails the check. This is the future. Powered by MongoDB, choose a database built for flexibility and scale, built with best in class embedding models and re rankers. MongoDB has what you need to build.
Speaker 1:What's next?
Speaker 2:It does. Michelangelo drawing just sold for 27,200,000.0. Let's hit the gong for that. Over 13 times its asking price.
Speaker 1:We're bringing down the gong?
Speaker 2:The Renaissance master earned a record on the sketch of a foot. Let's bring down the chapel.
Speaker 1:Let's hit the gong for the Michelangelo painting and then we'll get that. Give
Speaker 2:it a clean hit. Team is let's give it up for the team for really dialing in the special effects.
Speaker 1:Congrats to Michelangelo. Overnight success,
Speaker 2:Michelangelo. What
Speaker 1:do you Tyler? Overvalued, undervalued? 27,200,000.0.
Speaker 3:I think I'm gonna have to go with Tyler Cowen. On on Marginal Revolution. I saw this earlier this week. He said way overvalued.
Speaker 1:Way overvalued.
Speaker 2:He's Woah. Was what was the what was the thesis?
Speaker 3:I mean, it's not
Speaker 1:I'll give you the bare thesis. Look at the picture.
Speaker 3:It's just like a
Speaker 2:yeah.
Speaker 3:It's a foot. It's a foot. It's not even like a painting. It's just like sketch.
Speaker 1:I think we know what's going on. There's people that are into this stuff. I'm not gonna judge, but it's not me. Not for me. Get it all.
Speaker 1:We rediscovered Michelangelo drawing of a foot sold for 27,200,000.0 at Christie's on Thursday. A record for any work created by the Renaissance master in a sale likely to kick the art market into high gear. Previously unknown Red Chalk sketch is one of only a handful of Michelangelo's surviving studies still in still left in private hands. My my AI diffusion model could do this. That's the new phrase.
Speaker 1:And I my kid couldn't do this, but my AI diffusion model certainly could. This is not that impressive. Not a 27, maybe a five. Give me a break. The five inch drawing depicts the right foot of the Libyan Sibyl, a blonde prophetess from
Speaker 5:wearing
Speaker 1:a creamsicle gown painted onto the Alright.
Speaker 3:Let's get feet
Speaker 2:off of
Speaker 1:the screen. Here.
Speaker 2:Moving on, back to business. Citrini says in response to Opus 4.6, I have not shied away from buying scary dips, neither has Ben on our team. Producer Ben always buys the dip. Buying tech in 2022 is scary.
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 2:As we It's really good that buy the dip is like It's the backbone. It's really the backbone because freak out and sell everything would really be bad for our
Speaker 1:capital market. Yes. Okay. So
Speaker 2:Buying tech in 2022 was scary, as were banks after SVB. Bought plenty of stocks when COVID seemed like potentially the end of the world, but this doesn't really seem like an overreaction in software. If anything, it's delayed. It's a rational response that isn't even trying to front run the capability improvement. The capability is here.
Speaker 2:I respect anyone who is actually smart enough to know who survives and thrives. Yeah. I just don't think I can foresee that far ahead right now.
Speaker 1:And Gary Basin has a devil's advocate. I think the bottleneck will still be knowing the details of what to build, which depend on what your customers need, not even necessarily what they say they want. I use these tools daily to close close to close to their full power, and they're amazing. But the flashy demos are all examples of extremely precisely specified tasks. In example rich domains, build a compiler, build a web browser, etcetera.
Speaker 1:These have very specific rules on what success entails. And I've seen, like, the Gastown so one of the one of the big demo projects was, like, replatforming some open source software to Rust. And it's, like, that's pretty verifiable from start to finish. If you're looking at, like, build a new social network. It's like, okay.
Speaker 1:How do you get distribution? Distribution is still really, really important. Like, you can vibe code stuff, but driving traffic is is harder than ever. What do think, Tyler?
Speaker 2:I I
Speaker 3:just need to clear something. So before I said, Teller Conn was talking about Michelangelo? Yeah. Michelangelo. That was incorrect.
Speaker 3:He was actually talking about a Rembrandt. Oh. It's also a sketch.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 3:It was 20,000,000.
Speaker 1:20,000,000. The balance. Okay. Okay. Thank you for the thank you for the fact check.
Speaker 1:Really quickly, Restream. One livestream, 30 plus destinations. If you wanna multistream, go to restream.com. Wall Street logic right now, says Chris Camillo. Punish big tech for wasting CapEx on AI.
Speaker 1:Punish SaaS because AI will replace them and punish GPU manufacturers for selling the chips that power the waste. Sell everything. Sell your dollars. Remember to lock up your capital in late stage private companies at the tops. So it's base day 16 z that I think has been deleted.
Speaker 1:I can't see it, but
Speaker 2:I can see the screen. Really good post.
Speaker 1:Anyway, the fear greed index is at five out of a 100 extreme fear.
Speaker 2:Extreme fear. Yeah. I mean, good timing.
Speaker 1:Freak out and sell everything. This is Lindy.
Speaker 2:We posted this last night.
Speaker 1:Yeah. And then 4,000
Speaker 2:Got a rally.
Speaker 1:I think I I think this might have turned the tide. This might have turned it.
Speaker 2:You did it. Anyway.
Speaker 1:Cisco. Critical infrastructure for the AI era. Unlock seamless and real time experiences and new value with Cisco.
Speaker 2:Toma Bravo, managing partner Holden Spat says, I just finished a week of board meetings with several of our portfolio companies and their strong results and growth and profitability seem to be, in my view, another piece of evidence against the overwrought headlines that AI is eating software. Anaplan, Bottomline, Coupa, Dayforce, and Jepson for Flight are navigating the AI transition quite well with Q4 bookings growth of 22% on average and high margins.
Speaker 1:Let's go.
Speaker 2:These are large companies operating at billion dollar revenue scale. Not small start ups, and the growth numbers look to be accelerating, not decelerating. That kind of growth doesn't square with the notion that enterprise customers are cutting software spend so they have more money for new AI applications. We don't view our portfolios companies as being caught in an either or zero sum competition like that. They're building and integrating AI functionality into their products, and customers are voting with their dollars.
Speaker 2:Systems are just transitioning it to to to The voice. Systems of record with powerful AI and agent capabilities built to enterprise requirements and workflows. To be quite capable of profitable growth. I believe the value of profitable growth will endure in the face of technological change.
Speaker 1:Let's go.
Speaker 2:Not biased at all. But I think this is what we wanna see.
Speaker 1:Right? Six months ago, Google was considered disrupted. Now it's accelerating. Today, SaaS is considered disruptive. Now SaaS is accelerating.
Speaker 1:Let's see. Certainly not time to take your foot off the gas if you're building a SaaS company. You gotta figure out how to survive, how to thrive in the age of AI. You can't be asleep at the wheel. You gotta be building.
Speaker 1:You gotta be innovating. You gotta know your value. You gotta know you gotta know what really makes your company valuable.
Speaker 2:Tom Dale says, I don't know why this week became the tipping point but nearly every software engineer I've talked to is experiencing some degree of mental health crisis. I saw another post in the same vein from somebody saying, well, at least we're getting it over with before everyone else. Right? Software engineers might be prepared for a new reality just because they're probably closer to the beginning of the wave.
Speaker 1:Justine Moore has the other side of it. She says, I love how everyone is saying SaaS is dead like you're going to get the Fortune 500 to ditch Salesforce for a CRM vibe coded by a 13 year old. And Matt Levine says, what's kind of funny is that people on this website have internalized, quote, you hire McKinsey for air cover and a throat to choke if things go down go wrong. But they haven't internalized you hire Salesforce, Workday and Atlassian for very similar, albeit not identical reasons. And there's some disagreement.
Speaker 1:Montag says that's not even remotely true and Matt Levine says wrong. This is the other Matt Levine, by the way. This is not the Bloomberg writer. This is a software guy with some finance thrown in. He's been at a sixteen z and JPMorgan.
Speaker 1:Let me tell you about console.com. Console builds AI agents that automate 70% of IT, HR, and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets.
Speaker 2:That is right. Good Alexander says, just to be clear, people are shorting the economy of bits just as software EBITDA margins are about to run to 70% and rotating into the economy of atoms into mass unemployment.
Speaker 1:Rotating into the economy of atoms into mass unemployment? I don't I don't understand.
Speaker 2:I'm saying like if you're buying Disney right now saying like, okay, they have the parks business.
Speaker 1:Oh. Yeah. Then they have buy a It's
Speaker 2:not as immune to AI disruption. But then if a bunch of people are unemployed
Speaker 1:They're not gonna go to that
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:In theory.
Speaker 6:Well, we'll see.
Speaker 2:Theoretically. Theoretically.
Speaker 1:They might go more. Who knows? The fact that crypto and silver are getting clobbered Yeah. At the same time as SaaS stocks makes me think that the AI disruption story is a little bit too pat of an explanation for what's going on. There might be something else going on in the global economy.
Speaker 2:Yeah. This is why giving Anthropic full full credit for the correction in the journal
Speaker 1:It really would have been saying the aura and the power. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. No. I mean, it's great for Anthropics.
Speaker 1:And and and I and people are running the numbers on like, okay. So, you know, yeah. The valuation of Anthropics probably doubled an extra 300,000,000,000, but we're seeing like a trillion dollar sell off. It's like, is that really the exchange rate that we're talking about here? We we will see.
Speaker 1:Jensen is pushing back on the AI will kill all software
Speaker 2:Let's play the video.
Speaker 1:Like he pushed back last year on the deep sea panic. Let's play this video of Jensen.
Speaker 5:Software is. Software is a tool. There's this notion that the tool in this the software industry is in decline and will be replaced by AI. You could tell because there's a whole bunch of software companies whose stock prices are under a lot of pressure. Yeah.
Speaker 5:Because somehow AI is going to replace them. It is the most illogical thing in the world and time will prove itself. Let's just give it Let's give ourselves the the ultimate thought experiment. Suppose we are the ultimate AI. Artificial general robotics.
Speaker 5:The ultimate AI. The physical version of us. Mhmm. You could, of course, solve any problem because
Speaker 1:We value
Speaker 5:you're humanoid. You could do things. If you were a human or robot, would you use a use a screwdriver or invent a new screwdriver? Or just use one? Mhmm.
Speaker 5:Would you use a hammer or invent a new hammer? Would you use a chainsaw or invent a new chainsaw? It just don't first of
Speaker 1:all pill.
Speaker 5:Ideally, they don't use it at all.
Speaker 1:A lot of disagreement in the timeline.
Speaker 5:But do you understand what I'm saying? If you were a human or robot, artificial general robotics, would you use tools or reinvent tools? The answer, obviously, is to use tools.
Speaker 2:Mhmm.
Speaker 5:And so now do the digital version of
Speaker 2:that. If
Speaker 5:you were a artificial general intelligence, would you use the tools like ServiceNow and SAP and Cadence and Synopsys, or would you reinvent a calculator? Of course, you would just use a calculator.
Speaker 3:Okay. Tyler? Okay. I'd like, clearly disagree. So like, if you're yeah.
Speaker 3:If you're a robot I don't
Speaker 1:look the x.
Speaker 3:You'll use the calculator. Right? But like, you you'll just build the calculator if it costs you a lot of money to use the calculator. Yes. Yes.
Speaker 3:Yeah. So like, I I think, like, you know, digital That like agents will like use Salesforce. Right? But if Salesforce becomes like very expensive Yes. If it's it's already fairly expensive Yes.
Speaker 3:It's at some point, it becomes cheaper to just build it themselves and then you run it.
Speaker 1:Yes. Yes.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Especially when they're like, I can work the equivalent of 2,000 lifetimes today. Yeah.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Like, obviously, there's use for tools. Right? Yeah. OpenAI doesn't or ChachiPG like will write out Python script to to run some like big math Yeah.
Speaker 3:Problem. Right?
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 3:It's not gonna like use tokens to
Speaker 1:Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. At some point, if if a single prompt can say, like, build me a clone of this software and replatform me and onboard all my customers and employees to this to the new vibe coded version of software and maintain it for free, yeah, you have a problem.
Speaker 1:But as long as the cost to reimplement the software and replatform and transition over
Speaker 2:John John Palmer in the x chat and Deepak in the YouTube chat say, would you watch TBPN or reinvent it? Would you invent a new podcast or listen to a podcast?
Speaker 1:Was talking about trains. The indomitable will of trains or the unstoppable force of trains. Just being extremely bullish on trains. Oh. I don't know.
Speaker 1:Just trains.
Speaker 2:It was just like a very random train train anecdote.
Speaker 1:Yeah. I just I just like that there there's a hype train for trains in the chat. Schmoesbee says, you met me at a rather illiquid period of my life. It's rough out there.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I mean Good time talk. Back to Jensen. Yeah. It's it's in Jensen's interest for the for the markets not to collapse Mhmm.
Speaker 2:Even if he doesn't necessarily believe this, even if Tyler's take is right.
Speaker 1:Yeah. It's all it's all a matter of timelines, I think. It did. Yeah. Like like, the the models are expensive to actually go and reimplement something very, large and and replatform when when the current thing is working.
Speaker 1:Did you see this screenshot of of some mapping software suggesting you could go straight or you could go in a loop.
Speaker 2:This this is a CarGy software.
Speaker 1:It is? Yeah. Who who's CarGy software?
Speaker 2:Like, this map is is probably Oh, somebody who just appreciates a nice think
Speaker 1:this is actually Google Maps, but basically it's like you can go in a straight line or you could take a right and go in a massive loop and it's eight minutes slower. And it's like, would you like to go the slower route? But yeah, if you wanna do a if you wanna do a fat a hot lap, like go for it. I guess that's a good I guess it's a good take.
Speaker 2:We gotta we gotta actually pull out the post from Amtrak. Mhmm. Amtrak hired a poster.
Speaker 1:What did do? Oh, this is where the train Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Sorry. Was prop you know, one of the one of the posts of the week. Yeah. Amtrak says the unbridled greatness of trains will endure for a million years. Yes.
Speaker 1:That's yes. Yes. Yes. This is what he was quoting. I thought it was so funny.
Speaker 1:The unbridled greatness of trains will endure for a million years. How many likes does that have? That's a banger. 4,000. 4,000.
Speaker 1:54. 54,000. That's great. Let's go over to the Guinness tally. Tyler has it.
Speaker 1:He counted it up. He sat down. He studied the Durkash Patel cheeky pint crossover episode with Elon Musk. And he counted three pints for Elon, four pints for John, and three quarters of a pint for Durkash. But there's a suspicious refill
Speaker 3:Yeah. So I mean, it's bit hard to to really tell because if you so if you're tracking Dora Kesh's, you know, volume Mhmm. Right, throughout the episode, it kind of goes down and he's at maybe like, you know, 80% full
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 3:And then it goes back up.
Speaker 1:That sounds like a refill.
Speaker 3:But it's like a direct so so it's after a there's like an ad read and then it goes back up. Oh. So the question is like, during the, you know, whatever happened during the ad read. Right? Did he just like slam it?
Speaker 1:And then
Speaker 3:he filled back up all the way? Yeah. Or is it just kind of a, you know, partial fill?
Speaker 1:I think you gotta give them 1.75.
Speaker 2:Okay. Can we can we pull up the the screenshot?
Speaker 1:Yes. Is this Because the
Speaker 2:other the other debate the other debate was just around the actual size of the pints. Yes. Because there's some of them They
Speaker 1:look like full size
Speaker 4:pint glasses.
Speaker 3:So so it yeah. If Those
Speaker 1:look like full
Speaker 3:size pint glasses. Another another photo of of Elon holding the pint?
Speaker 1:Yes. Three down.
Speaker 2:You gotta pull that pull that up, Tyler. Put it in the
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No. No.
Speaker 1:It's here.
Speaker 2:This is really important. So, yeah.
Speaker 1:You see
Speaker 2:this and it's like, okay. That looks
Speaker 3:pretty small in his hands.
Speaker 1:Little small. And then and then let's click over to Timothee Chalamet. Timothee Chalamet. I mean, he's a smaller person, but it looks the same size to me. I think these are fair pint glasses.
Speaker 1:I think these are accurate. I'm not I'm not seeing anything that's that's that's
Speaker 3:So Timothee Chalamet is five ten. Yvonne is six two.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 3:So slight height difference, I mean, I don't I feel like Yeah.
Speaker 1:Maybe. Yvonne is really
Speaker 3:mulling that. Maybe.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I think I think they're just potentially wider.
Speaker 1:I think they
Speaker 2:And this is the kind of hard hitting analysis that you can really only get on this show. No other no other technology media is really breaking down
Speaker 1:I'm going
Speaker 2:pint analysis.
Speaker 1:I'm going normal sized pints on this. But it is it is it is an interesting optical
Speaker 2:illusion. Yeah. This one looks incredible.
Speaker 1:It's a little bit of an optical illusion. It's close. It's close. I mean, either way
Speaker 2:I know. We don't know
Speaker 1:Even if it's a half pint, John drank four, so that's two full pints. Even if it's a half pint, you know? I I think I think I think these are full pint glasses. I'm going full pint.
Speaker 2:Okay. You know who else is going full pint, Who? The founder of crypto.com. Oh, yeah? Who just bought ai.com for 70 Let's go.
Speaker 2:Big big big $70,000,000. He is running an ad for ai.com. We don't know what ai.com is yet, but I'm assuming you're gonna be able to get some artificial intelligence there much like you can get crypto.
Speaker 1:It's a response. So there haven't been people saying, if you're in crypto, pivot to AI. Took it literally. Right?
Speaker 2:I'll read through this. Chris, founder says, plans to launch new site with a Super Bowl ad this weekend. The founder of trading site kurpad.com just bought AI for 70,000,000. He actually bought it last last year in April. Highest price ever disclosed for a domain sale to launch a new entrant into the AI race.
Speaker 2:Mhmm. There's The site will offer a personal AI agent that consumers can use to send messages, use apps, and trade stocks.
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:It's very, very American. Send message, send memes, order DoorDash, and trade stocks with your new AI agent. Last year, an opportunity came up for me to acquire this domain and I thought, if you take a long term view, ten to twenty years, that AI is gonna be one of the greatest technological waves of our lifetime, and so it would be a good investment. Yeah. Delight did not comment on the purchase price, which was confirmed by the deal's broker, Larry Fisher of getyourdomain.com.
Speaker 2:Huge win for Larry.
Speaker 1:Larry, shout out to domain brokers.
Speaker 2:With assets like ai.com, there are no substitutes, said Fisher. When one becomes available, the opportunity may never present itself again. Of course, ai.com pitched itself, was pitching itself aggressively to all of the different labs. Everyone was like, you know, we Anthropic's like, well, we may not have an at Anthropic on x, but we do have anthropic.com. Who
Speaker 1:owns
Speaker 2:You
Speaker 1:have claud.com. Who owns i.ai? That's a good domain. Because claude owns or Anthropic owns claude.com, but they also own claude.ai, they reroute claude.com to claude.ai, which is normally the opposite of the flow that you'd go. You'd start with the .ai or the other TLD, and then you would as soon as you get the .com, you'd reroute everything to .com.
Speaker 1:Anthropic's so AI pilled that they're using the .ai as their main domain. They're
Speaker 2:rerouting Anguilla pilled?
Speaker 1:Oh, yes.
Speaker 2:Maybe they maybe they just Anguilla. Like supporting Anguilla. Tyler, is using ai.com to launch a personal AI agent? Is it You're Gen Z. Is this Chuggie?
Speaker 3:Wait. What is Chuggie again? I don't know.
Speaker 2:Chuggie is like Gen Z slang.
Speaker 3:I think it's like millennial slang.
Speaker 2:Really?
Speaker 3:I don't know.
Speaker 1:It feels a little Chubai to me. I'll I'll I'll say that. I know enough about that. It it feels like like Chewbah, it's chopped, it's Dubai. Dubai would want like the name of the thing and but it's chopped.
Speaker 2:Chewgie is a slang term often used by Gen Z to describe someone or something that is uncool, outdated or trying too hard to be trendy. Yep. Typically referring to millennial trends from the twenty tens. So
Speaker 1:it's a dig at millennials from the perspective of zoomers.
Speaker 2:Makes It describes a post basic aesthetic that is slightly cringe worthy such as live laugh love signs jeans or side parts.
Speaker 1:Okay. Interesting. Vanta, automate compliance and security. Vanta is the leading AI trust management platform. Let's go over the mansion section.
Speaker 1:There's some good stuff today.
Speaker 2:Hit me.
Speaker 1:We got a bunch of stuff. So Miami's Coconut Grove, they're calling it Billionaires Grove. The ultra wealthy buyers have discovered Miami's once sleepy Coconut Grove neighborhood.
Speaker 2:Cam in the x chat says Chewy is being carried by millennials.
Speaker 1:Okay. Interesting. Thank you, Cam.
Speaker 2:Fan says, what an unk term. What an unk.
Speaker 1:Once known as a bohemian enclave, Miami's leafy Coconut Grove neighborhood is quickly transforming into a billionaire's playground, thanks to a string of mega sales in the area. Unlike hot spots like Miami Beach and Indian Creek, The Grove with its massive banyan trees, winding streets, and small gated communities was little known to people outside of Miami until recently. Most people hadn't heard of it unless they were local, said real estate agent Danny Hertzberg. Now the secret is out in a big way and it's on the cover of the Wall Street Journal Manson section. Since late December, Google cofounder Larry Page has spent $8,188,400,000.0 on three properties in Coconut Grove.
Speaker 1:While businessman Jorge Jorge Mas, a co owner of professional soccer team, Inter Miami
Speaker 2:Okay. But what did he actually do?
Speaker 1:Yeah. That's a good question. Look him up. He just says he's busy introduce yeah. Just getting introduced as a businessman is incredible.
Speaker 1:That's his life
Speaker 2:Jorge Mas, president of Real Zaragoza.
Speaker 1:Okay. Is he really just a soccer guy?
Speaker 2:Nope. American billionaire businessman and chairman and the largest shareholder of MasTec, a Miami based construction and engineering.
Speaker 1:There we go.
Speaker 2:Founded by his father. Okay.
Speaker 1:There we go. He spent 100,000,000 Both of those properties are within a few miles of a waterfront estate billionaire Ken Griffin purchased in 2022 for a 106,000,000, a Miami record. Locals are now competing with out of town buyers for homes, real estate agents said. And housing prices in Coconut Grove, especially for waterfront property, have surged. The median single family home sale price in Coconut Grove was 2,300,000.0 in the 2025, more than doubling from under $1,000,000.995000 dollars in 2019.
Speaker 1:So more than double in just six years. A $10,000,000 home is now a $50,000,000 home. Wow. Live, work, play. Coconut Grove was a hub for night life galleries and artists in the 1970s, '80s, '90s, but its retail and cultural scene faded.
Speaker 1:The housing market became kind of sleepy. Then about a decade ago, the neighborhood's reinvention began with the redevelopment of the CocoWalk open air mall and construction of luxury condos was introduced $20,000,000 penthouses to The Grove for the first time. When COVID struck, an influx of families relocating from out of town were drawn to the area, which is walkable with high end restaurants and retail, but little tourist activity. Part of The Grove's appeal is its proximity to Downtown Miami and the Brickell neighborhood where Griffin is building a new headquarters for Citadel. The Grove also has prestigious schools like Ransom Everglade School and Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart.
Speaker 1:Although, The Grove isn't gated, there are a small number of gated communities within the neighborhood such as Ye Little Wood, The Moorings and Camp Biscayne. They're subtle, hidden, lush, you don't know they're there. That's a big appeal. The condo boom, new condo buildings have been at the epicenter of Coconut Grove's market resurgence. A decade ago, large new luxury units were relatively unknown in the area, said a developer.
Speaker 1:People thought I was crazy, Martin said, but his gamble paid off. Martin sold his own penthouse in the building for $17,800,000 in 2023. Now CMC Group and Fort Partners are developing a Four Seasons branded condo in Coconut Grove. Prices raised from $5,000,000 to $16,000,000 excluding penthouses, which are expected to sell for $120,000,000 combined, Although that is far more expensive than any other condo sold in Coconut Grove to date. We think it's achievable, said Columbo.
Speaker 1:What a great name for a Miami real estate person. The buyers looking for that before they would only consider Miami Beach. Now those buyers have Coconut Grove on the radar. Then there's bigger homes too. The average lot size in Coconut Grove is under an acre, which is smaller than lots and other luxury enclaves.
Speaker 1:That used to deter buyers who wanted more land. But since 2020, developers and end users alike have been expanding existing properties. People are starting to knock on the door of the neighbor next door and put together big, bigger assemblages. For example, Page bought a $101,000,000 waterfront property owned by the late restaurateur Jonathan Lewis, then acquired an abutting property for 15,000,000. Page also purpos purchased a nearby property for 71,900,000.0 from heiress Sloane Lindeman.
Speaker 1:A few waterfront homes in Coconut Grove are highly sought after, agent said. He recently sold a $16,500,000 bayfront estate owned by Susie Welch, the widow of former General Electric co chairman and CEO Jack Welch. Wow.
Speaker 2:I'm sick of Miami. Can we go to the mountains? What else Yeah. We got?
Speaker 1:Let's go to the mountains. What's the next what's the next story here?
Speaker 2:What That is actually my general experience with Miami. It's amazing for a week. Yeah. Then I'm ready to mix it up.
Speaker 1:Well, we could go to Manhattan or we could go to Beverly Hills. What do you have in mind? Neither are particularly mountainous, but I guess the hills
Speaker 2:are just more mountainous.
Speaker 1:There's a California villa here built for James Cagney. Do you know the famed Hollywood film star James Cagney?
Speaker 2:Never heard of him, John.
Speaker 1:Wow. What were you doing in the 1930s and the 1940s when he was making gangster films such as Angels with Dirty Faces.
Speaker 2:Good movie Crazy name.
Speaker 1:He built the stone villa around 1939, property records.
Speaker 2:We don't know how to name movies like that in
Speaker 1:Angels with Dirty Faces coming to your, a theater near you. Buy your tickets today. A year later so he died in 1986. A year later, his widow, Francis Cagney, sold the property to the current owner, Stephen Dunn, founder of the of the baby product supplier Munchkin. Munchkin.
Speaker 1:Dunn didn't respond to comment. Cagney lived in Beverly Hills while filming, but otherwise spent his time at farms in Upstate New York in Martha's Vineyard. Actor Robert Wagner, a friend of Cagney's, wrote in a 2014 Vanity Fair piece, The California house was unpretentious but had a studio with a wooden floor and a record player where Cagney practiced dancing, Wagner wrote. After purchasing the Beverly Hills estate, Dunn expanded the villa to approximately 6,000 square feet with three bedrooms, said a listing agent. In the nineteen nineties, Dunn purchased an adjacent parcel combining the properties into a compound spanning five acres.
Speaker 1:In addition to the main house, the property has a pool and a roughly 2,500 square foot guest house. Over the years, Dunn has added
Speaker 2:Does it have a moat?
Speaker 1:Guests. I don't think it has a moat, but does it have a lot of stone
Speaker 2:I know. The stone was was was, you know, signaling maybe maybe there's an alligator moat.
Speaker 1:So 38,500,000.0, six bedrooms, multiple houses, tennis, pool, and your favorite, pickleball.
Speaker 2:A tennis pool?
Speaker 1:Tennis tennis court and a pool. Okay. It has a pool cabana with an outdoor kitchen. It's landscaped extensively. It has pickleball courts.
Speaker 1:What do you think? 38,500,000.0 for a six bedroom.
Speaker 2:I like it.
Speaker 1:You like it.
Speaker 2:It's very unique.
Speaker 1:July at 38.5?
Speaker 2:It looks like it would withstand a wildfire.
Speaker 1:Yeah. That's true. That's true. The luxury market in Los Angeles is picking up after battling major headwinds including a mansion tax and geopolitical uncertainty.
Speaker 2:World in the in the chat says, cop the estate boys new Ultradome. We might have to, John, while we are live, our latest Ultradome there that that we had an offer in on, they're out for new reason. We've had like we've had truly if anybody has just a big building in the center of LA, We wanna give you money for it. Let us do it. We've had such a fascinating time trying to get the entertainment industry in LA has collapsed.
Speaker 2:It's a ghost town. It's a modern Detroit. And yet and yet we cannot find a building.
Speaker 1:I don't know why people like me. I keep talking trash about them in this town. You gotta glaze. You gotta triple glaze them. It's the best.
Speaker 1:It's the best town. We just wanna build it even better.
Speaker 2:Yeah. We're all we're trying to do is bring media back to Hollywood.
Speaker 1:It's not degrading at all when you say it like that. Maybe we should move to Milan. It's the gold medal housing market they're saying. The city coasting the Winter Olympics is a fashion hub with Europe's hottest luxury residential market. When the world's winter sports elite gatherers this elite gathers this week for the opening ceremony of the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics, they're starting this week?
Speaker 2:Have you been to that arch?
Speaker 1:No. I've never been to Milan. It's quite nice. I've never been to Milan. It's a fashion and design hub that has long been the country's main economic center.
Speaker 1:It is increasingly becoming a tourist destination. And and in 2017, Italy introduced tax laws favorable to new residents, which led
Speaker 2:about to new data centers?
Speaker 1:Let's convert Malawi.
Speaker 2:A data center with that original arch aesthetic For sure. Would Yes. Would really really be It would fix me. It me. Would fix Tyler.
Speaker 2:Mean, that we don't know how to make data centers that look like this. Everyone's talking Who
Speaker 1:is about this? Putting them Shamsankar. Shamsankar was saying
Speaker 2:Everyone's talking about putting them in space. Why can't we convert of these We're
Speaker 1:not just putting them in Milan. We're putting them in the most expensive neighborhood in Milan. That's Brera. Brera is a small exclusive neighborhood just west of the city's premier shopping district around Via Monte Napoleone, Residential real estate in Brera, where most homes are apartments, currently the city's most expensive. Brera's high end sector had an average sale price of $1,868 per square foot.
Speaker 1:What would it cost to put Colossus there? How many square feet is Colossus? I want to know how many because we to go apartment by apartment racking NVL 72s in Milan, in the Brera neighborhood specifically. A renovated duplex sold for just over $28,000,000 the most ever paid for a Milan apartment, the adjacent Quattelera Della Moda or Fashion District, home to brands like Gucci and Cartier, was once the city's most expensive, but Branera has suddenly surpassed it. It's more livable.
Speaker 1:Well, for now until we put these data centers in there. You can walk to the shops, but you're not living in a shop. People want penthouses with views and the yeah, there's a couple other things in Brayera. I don't know. Maybe that's the location of the next UltraDome.
Speaker 1:Let me tell you about AppLovin. Profitable advertising made easy with axon.ai. Get access to over 1,000,000,000 daily active users and grow your business today. Tyler, what's it gonna cost me to put a Colossus sized data center in the Brera District in Milan, the neighborhood in Milan that costs $1,800 per square foot.
Speaker 3:Okay. So apparently, Colossus one is only seven seven hundred eighty five thousand square feet.
Speaker 6:Okay.
Speaker 3:So it's only gonna be like $1.41500000000.0. Billion.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Doable.
Speaker 3:So not bad at all.
Speaker 1:Easy.
Speaker 3:I mean, putting a know, to to build a gigawatt of of of a data center is like 50,000,000,000. Right?
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 3:That's like in that range. So, I mean, this is like kind of a no brainer.
Speaker 1:It's a no brainer. It's a no brainer. As is interviewing Doug O'Laughlin after earnings when he's suffering from Claude Coates' psychosis. Welcome to the stream, Doug. How are you doing?
Speaker 6:I'm doing wonderful. How are you guys doing?
Speaker 1:Great to see you.
Speaker 2:Can we pull up the the video that you've that
Speaker 1:Oh, yes.
Speaker 2:John painstakingly made this morning that completely that completely flopped?
Speaker 1:I'm I'm very excited to have you on the show. It feels like, that scene in Sonic the Hedgehog three, which I saw where Sonic and Shadow team up and join forces, to talk about CapEx and agentic coding. What what's new in your world? Is is Claude Code still the top of mind, or are you still churning through the CapEx numbers from earnings?
Speaker 2:Are you somewhat of an agent for Claude now? Like, you work for Claude?
Speaker 6:I I do, actually. I think I mostly just move my information back and forth. You know? Mhmm. I have I have pretty much like, I think of it as, like, my manager.
Speaker 6:You know? Like, tells me what to do, and then I go bring the information, and I bring it to my coworkers. I bring it back. Mhmm. All day, I'm just on Cloud Code.
Speaker 1:How many how many prompts are you running right now? Do you have any threads going?
Speaker 6:Okay. So Oh, I I have I have seven. I have seven threads.
Speaker 1:Seven that are running right now or or No.
Speaker 6:No. No. Not running.
Speaker 1:Not now. Waiting for your input.
Speaker 6:I'm waiting waiting waiting for my input.
Speaker 1:We'll let you get back to it.
Speaker 2:Why don't you just have an eighth that just Let's
Speaker 1:talk about what yeah. Orchestration. Have you played with Gastown? Are you thinking about abstracting yourself to a higher level?
Speaker 6:Oh, okay. So Gastown is, it's pretty intense. I don't think Ghastown's gonna work out. I think it's gonna be Agent Swarms.
Speaker 1:Okay. Okay. Explain the difference between between Gastown and Agent Swarms.
Speaker 6:Okay. So Gastown is probably the most forward looking thing I've read in a long second. Talked about how you created this self healing tool process to essentially pass all these beads across and have all these workers and ways to self repair the agent workflow process. And I read it, and I was like, dude, this is brilliant and also fucking crazy. It's it's like it it feels like the ratings of a bad man.
Speaker 6:And then I proceeded well, I was also in my bad man era. Yeah. Like, before before the New Year's when you had two x times usage, I pretty much was, like, literally railing quad code constantly. I think I had I think I had four fourteen hour days.
Speaker 1:Wow.
Speaker 6:Yeah. It was it was beautiful.
Speaker 1:It was beautiful. Okay. So talk to us about what you're actually building because, you know, we're we're talking about SaaSpocalypse. It feels like there's a debate over build rebuild all your tools from scratch to save whatever your SaaS fees are.
Speaker 2:Yeah. And even even comes out with Frontier
Speaker 5:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Which is you look at like that you gotta look at this like graphic which feels like it was made for, you know, a Fortune 500 CEO to kind of or management team to kind of understand it. Mhmm. And it's like, here's more SaaS to replace your other SaaS. Right? It's like, you know, you got the system of record down here, you have a bunch of agents in between, and then you've got different applications that you're using.
Speaker 2:And meanwhile, Anthropic's just like, we're making a really smart digital guy that can do whatever you want.
Speaker 6:Yeah. So I think the two there's, like, two really interesting ways. I think OpenAI is, like, the Fortune 500 selling it from the top, if it makes sense. Mhmm. And then Anthropic is, like, here's my here's your Cloud Code agent, Sell 20,000 of them.
Speaker 6:Did you see the in the Accenture partnership? I think that's really interesting. No. So, like, if you're if you go back there's they're doing 30,000 people at Accenture.
Speaker 1:What do you mean?
Speaker 6:To, like, thirty thirty thousand people at Accenture are going to learn how to Claude code.
Speaker 2:Oh. And then And that's so much more deployed that. Into different companies. Yeah. Who knows?
Speaker 6:Who knows?
Speaker 1:What else would
Speaker 2:they do?
Speaker 6:Just replace Accenture. I mean, that's what I that's what they're gonna be doing, I think.
Speaker 1:Okay. Wait. So yeah. So What do you mean replace if if Accenture folks are using Cloud Code, wouldn't they be using it on consulting projects internally Yes. To companies?
Speaker 6:I I think they're going to be using it internally Mhmm. As my no. So they're gonna be using internally, and then they're gonna be doing all these consulting things. Mhmm. Because if you think about it, one of the issues is, like, you know, when you had SaaS, one of the biggest issues of, like, changing from one CRM to another Yeah.
Speaker 6:Was effectively being like, hey, everyone. You have to quit your jobs for, like, ten months to figure this out. Yeah. The the implementation, like, you'd have tons and tons of, like, consultants do that. Yep.
Speaker 6:And I think that that's what the Accenture partnership is. So essentially, like, people are going to be implementing Cloud Code, and there's 30,000 people at Accenture who's gonna do it. And then on the other side, you have Frontier, which is like the Fortune 500 way of being like, here's your plan. Come to us, and we'll build this whole thing, blah blah blah.
Speaker 1:So yeah. But is is is reimplementing your CRM really the lowest hanging fruit for America's greatest companies? It can't possibly. There must be some new ideas, new problems to solve, new tools to build. Like, why are we just going to shuffle the chips around the board instead of, like, doing something productive?
Speaker 6:Okay. So I think the system of record refresh is gonna be really awesome because, you know, like, the big lit I mean, it honestly does feel kind of boomer if you think about it. It's, like, the biggest data now. Everyone can have the big data now. Mhmm.
Speaker 6:But I think the the automation that you've always dreamed of is actually gonna happen, and the system of record is just gonna essentially have hooks out to all these other things that are gonna build on top of it, which is mostly, like, you know, the frontier thing.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 6:And, essentially, like, all the information work is just gonna be, like, all on the agent, and everything else is gonna be, like, place where it lives and is stored for fontsies. Mhmm. So instead of me having someone let let me use my personal stack as seminalysis. We use HubSpot, for example. Sure.
Speaker 6:So, hey. The sales this quarter, we need this, like, quota or who did what or what products are selling better or, like, you know, what's
Speaker 2:How many more podcasts should Dylan do this month if we wanna hit our goal?
Speaker 6:That's totally different. We don't actually have, like, our our, like, you know, the big yeah. Sure. How many more podcasts? Shit like that.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 6:Right? I can just vibe code it. I was just like, hey. Can you run this analysis for me? And in a perfect futuristic world, it'll go into the CRM Yep.
Speaker 6:Pull all the information of the all of our inbounds
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 6:Make it'd be like, hey. The day after Dylan goes on a podcast, there's, like, 25 people who who come in. The conversion rate is x. You could price it at this. Dylan, quit your you know, stop working and effectively just, like, hit the podcast.
Speaker 6:There we go. You know? Like yeah. Yeah. Exactly.
Speaker 6:So so you could do this with anything, Like, it's just information, man. Like, it's it's it's gonna be pretty sick. But I think all the SaaS companies are going to essentially just become hooks for all the crap they built on top of it.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 2:So Did you see Jensen yesterday was was kind of defending some companies like SAP and ServiceNow and saying, hey, if I was a if I was a really smart humanoid, out doing work in the world and I needed a screwdriver, would I just invent a new screwdriver or would I just take one off the shelf? So that was, like, his defense. Tyler here was took took the other side of it and just said, there's gonna be a lot of situations where, especially in a software only environment, it's easier to just build a very specific workflow that you need that you would have gotten from a SaaS provider versus, you know, you don't need to actually rebuild the entire platform.
Speaker 6:Yeah. I think we're gonna be building a lot of screwdrivers. Like, things like, the thing that's important is, like, okay. You're not gonna rent a truck. Right?
Speaker 6:Like, like, you're not gonna build your own truck, but your own screwdriver a 100%. Like like, you're doing this big ginormous job. You need a hammer. You'd be like, okay. Pull it out of my belt.
Speaker 6:Okay? Mhmm. But you're not gonna be like, I'm about to move 700 tons of, like, here to here. I need to rent a truck. You're you're not gonna build the truck.
Speaker 6:Mhmm. And so that's what I think the system records are gonna look like. They're gonna look like places where, like, actual data that cannot be, like like, cannot be vibed effectively. Like, what's your inventory cannot have any fucking hallucinations. Right?
Speaker 6:Like, your ERP. But all of that will just be hooks for everything else.
Speaker 2:Mhmm.
Speaker 6:Because, like, all the information is just, pulling, retrieving, making the correlation, running the charts, like Okay.
Speaker 2:But even things
Speaker 6:in that all the time.
Speaker 2:Then but then how do you square the fact that a system of record is way less sticky if you have agents that can work around the clock to switch you over to a different system of record? Like, that still ends up putting massive pricing pressure.
Speaker 6:So so to be clear, I don't think it's good for everyone. Like, I think my my my favorite analogy of this is, like, there actually is a very old school type of software that's, like, existed for a long time. All the shit on mainframes. It's all it's all out there. Yeah.
Speaker 6:And, you know, like, funny enough, mainframes still grew, like, 6% a year or whatever. Someone has the real number from, like, 2002 Yeah. To to 2020.
Speaker 1:It's crazy.
Speaker 6:So, like, they're they're gonna grow, but it's just gonna be, like, a very different vision of the world that I don't think people are ready for.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 6:And and the adjustment period is the big problem because all the stocks are priced like they're not gonna be mainframes. Yeah. And and and also just for context, mainframes, there's like, hey, there's one of each company now. Yeah. There's not there's not like 10.
Speaker 6:Yep. There's one each.
Speaker 2:Yeah. So I think with all these all these whether you're a system of record or you're, you know, some vertical software, you're gonna need to show insane revenue growth in a truly AI native Mhmm. Product. Otherwise, investors, I think, are gonna continue to not be able to create a super compelling narrative why why you should own it during this period of uncertainty.
Speaker 6:Yeah. I mean, pretty much what happens and we're gonna go like investor brain. When anything goes x growth, the multiple goes massively down.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. That makes sense.
Speaker 6:Eight times earnings.
Speaker 1:Can you talk a little bit more about what you're actually coding, what you're building, like what the software is? Because it from the demos that I've seen that you've posted, it feels much more like you have an agent that can do knowledge retrieval, data transformation, build dashboards, dashboards, charts, and and, like, knowledge work as opposed to truly replacing software tools at this point. But do you have you built anything that's, like, long lived and and runs, like, daily? Or is, like, something you keep revisiting because it's now a piece of software that does the job
Speaker 6:So the Cloud Code Commits the Cloud Code Commits is now software that lives and and runs every single day. Okay. That's like a scraper. Right? And then, that that, like, lives in a database, and that that will run forever.
Speaker 6:Okay. There's, like, a lot of other tracking price data tool stuff. Like, a lot of the scraping that we're, like, that is not, like, publicly available, like Yeah. We do, like, a lot of that. Like, we had a data team just do that, Yeah.
Speaker 6:And now effectively, we can, like, really accelerate that so everyone could do that. Sure. Sure. Sure. There are other, like, little things that I think are, like, heuristics.
Speaker 6:Yeah. Like, little skills of, like, I have blind spots that I consistently make over and over. Yeah. And I'm like, hey, I know this blind spot's an issue, blah blah blah. You should, like, consider this in this case.
Speaker 6:I I don't think it's, like, the Galaxy Brain software, and we're very far from there. Because if you actually play with these tools a lot, context fraud is real.
Speaker 5:Yeah. So
Speaker 1:I they is it is but it's is it how fast is it getting better? Because it feels like we're seeing the meter graph.
Speaker 6:Scary fast.
Speaker 1:Scary fast.
Speaker 6:Scary scary scary. I started vibe coding with Claude four. Yeah. And it just wasn't or sorry, Opus four on Claude code. And it just could not one shot websites in the way that four point five and four point six can.
Speaker 3:Yep.
Speaker 6:And if it just marginally improves from here, it feels like why would I pay for, like, any kind of UI UX if it's just gonna be generated at a good enough quality?
Speaker 1:Yeah. How did you process the new models this week? Four six five three. What's the review?
Speaker 2:Oh, my you don't if you can't immediately notice the difference between four five and four six, start polishing your resume. You are cooked.
Speaker 6:Yeah. Yeah. You just got automated by an agent.
Speaker 1:Oh, my
Speaker 6:I think four six was a little disappointing, if I'm honest with
Speaker 5:you. Mhmm.
Speaker 6:I I think it might have been Sonnet five.
Speaker 1:Oh, that's what people are saying. That's the conspiracy theory. Right? But what what does that mean?
Speaker 6:The original Sonic five leaks were that it's like as good as Opus 4.5, but with 1,000,000 context window
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 6:And specifically trained for Asian swarms.
Speaker 1:Sure. So well, yeah. But does it just mean like same quality but faster cheaper, at least for Yeah.
Speaker 6:Topic? And then they and they make more money.
Speaker 1:Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But, yeah, better margins. How are the margins looking for the the labs right now?
Speaker 1:There's there was a bunch of, like, FUD around it, but it seems like from all the leaks, it's been, like, fifty, sixty, 70% pretty good.
Speaker 6:Yep. If if you x all the free users, it's always really good. Right?
Speaker 2:Oh, yeah.
Speaker 6:Yeah. Honestly, Anthropic has no free users or like on a relative basis. So their margins are ironically like like kind of on a like to like basis kind of not as good as you think.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Can you break down a little bit more of the thesis of the Clog Code is an inflection point article? What what what the key takeaway? Who you're speaking to? What update you wanted to share?
Speaker 1:And then I wanna go into some of the some of the pushback and your response to that.
Speaker 6:Yeah. Sure. So first, I think the thing that makes me really excited is the first time since Shana thought, feel like we have a new scaling that feels very, very different and hardcore, and I can actually see my entire life day to day change. Mhmm. I think I can expect some version of a Cloud Code harness to be effectively all my information work from now till the future.
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 6:I am a daily user. I was not a daily dailies before, and I expect to continue to be one.
Speaker 1:And that's kind of what happened with the reasoning models. It went from, like, you could ask, get stuff, but it might hallucinate to, like, the answers are good. Like, you can pretty much rely on and there's gonna be citations, and, like, it's gonna be 99.999%, like, percent, like, usable for things. So you just have a question, you get that. It may be not great at certain things, but in general, like, it delivered on the initial, like, chat experience that I think a lot of people were looking for.
Speaker 1:And then they became I'm awesome.
Speaker 2:Yeah. How much, do you think Anthropic cares more about winning in consumer than they've let on to date?
Speaker 6:No. I don't think so. Mhmm. Everyone everyone who works there is exactly like like what you think it
Speaker 1:is. Yeah.
Speaker 6:They're exactly who they say they are.
Speaker 1:Yeah. They're software singularity build.
Speaker 6:Yeah. And then I think co work is what they're really excited about.
Speaker 1:Sure. Makes sense. Yeah. Yeah. What what what this person So
Speaker 2:they're not even they're not even thinking about Mhmm. The scenario where a bunch of people are using Claude in the work in a work setting and say, hey, this is pretty great and, yeah, ChatGPity has ads. I'm happy to pay $20 a month. I'll use it personally. Because I just think there's like an iPhone like, think the game to get to like 3,000,000,000 users is like over when you just look at the traction of like Gemini and ChatGPT and the fact that norm normal people aren't caring that much about the Nuance.
Speaker 2:Maybe that don't have that much to automate in their life. But there's like an iPhone size market. Mhmm. Like the iPhone wasn't the first smartphone to launch. And it's possible, like, when I see this, like, when I see this, like, the the Super Bowl ad, the sort of, like, trust nuke, I was calling it.
Speaker 2:Right? Just, hey, like, it's really funny. They're, like, you know, rage baiting OpenAI, but at the same time, they're just destroying trust around ads and LMs potentially, permanently. Right? Because people, even when they start seeing ads that are more like display ads, they'll start thinking, well, was the result influenced too?
Speaker 2:You know, it hurts the trust. And so I think there I think My my theory is that any product that like really catches on in the workplace could very well trickle over into into life, and Anthropic could someday have a pretty big, you know, they could have like a Netflix sized subscriber base for people that just want an ad free AI experience.
Speaker 6:Yeah. That sounds completely right to me. Mhmm. But but you're saying for
Speaker 2:your point is like, it's just secondary to them. They're like, it's a nice to have, but like, we don't. That's not that's not our intention. I
Speaker 6:think okay. So singularity pillar, but I also I think you have to pay for the singularity, and I think it's gonna be enterprise that does it.
Speaker 2:Makes sense.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the the other the other take on like, you could wind up being like the Apple and, like, the premium, you know, privacy focused or you could wind up being, like, the DuckDuckGo, which was, like Yeah. You know, the yeah. It was a counter to Google, but it never got to any meaningful scale.
Speaker 1:Right?
Speaker 6:Yeah. But I still think I still think OpenAI is the Apple. Like, Apple was synonymous with smartphones when it really took off. Like, what is the other smartphone? Nokia.
Speaker 6:You could argue this is like a Blackberry. Yeah. I can't name it. Yeah. Well, like, Blackberry, right?
Speaker 6:It it was known for work. Yeah. And then, obviously, like, it swapped over. So I still think OpenAI is, like, the cognitive referent. And, honestly, 5.3 cooks.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Faster or just better or both?
Speaker 6:Faster and better.
Speaker 1:Faster and better. Okay. Talk about 5.2 token efficiency. Rune was pushing back on the article saying you're making you're making assertion that 5.2 token efficiency ruins long horizon planning, and yet 5.2 tops the meter chart for long horizon planning, half baked. What's the explanation there?
Speaker 6:Didn't someone completely mock that argument? But he's kind of he's like, sorry, I gotta find the guy. But it's like, I don't know what task is being done here. Is are are they the same hardness? Yes.
Speaker 6:Did you just spam it to infinity and like, you finish like a sufficiently long task to completion versus like like, okay, let's just say we have two kids taking the SAT, and one does a better job and finishes first, and one does like almost as good of a job and took seven times as long and you're like, wow. That one's a smart kid. Yeah. No, dude. That doesn't make any sense.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That makes sense.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. An elegant solution delivered faster is uniformly better. Yeah. A 100%.
Speaker 1:That makes sense.
Speaker 6:Yeah. And so spam if more tokens, like, and you win and you're like, oh, look. I mobbed them. It's like, dude, what if you just use less tokens?
Speaker 1:I think the benchmark is supposed to be for for they they have they have a reference class of of projects that are supposed to take x amount of time. They would take a human developer six hours, and then they have all the models compete. And if you can compete the six hour task, then you get put at the six hour mark. It's not, did you run for six hours? It it it's Oh, make that
Speaker 3:make sense.
Speaker 1:So so so it could be like implement a CRM product or, you know, write a very complicated, you know, database or something. It would take, you know, a talented software developer six hours, two hours, one hour, and they have different tasks and then you're trying to climb that hurdle. Oh, yeah.
Speaker 6:And then it's it it okay. It climbs higher and higher
Speaker 1:and higher. Think I think that's loosely it's because because obviously you could just say, okay, just reasoning count to 1,000,000,000 and just go as slow as and it works for days, and that's not impressive.
Speaker 6:I I think the yeah. I mean, it's okay. So, yeah, you're right. The the different the scaling thing, but, like okay. So one the other thing I was doing, like, now that we have vibe coding available to everyone, you can just have it do the same task and do like ABC.
Speaker 6:Like, I've been doing like a lot of internal benchmarking. Everyone could benchmark, guys. Yeah. Dude, Codex 5.2 took so long and just never built for me.
Speaker 1:Oh, interesting.
Speaker 6:And it's like, all the Codex hype during like, it just never worked for me, man. Like, it never it never one shot projects like Opus 4.5 did. Mhmm. And I'm just like, this feels like complete foot. But that being said, Codex 5.3 cooks.
Speaker 6:Like Yeah. I think I take everything back off about 5.2 for 5.3.
Speaker 1:Nice. Total reversal. Classic AI narrative just day by day complete switching of the narrative. Talk about the NPM downloads. Because you said that you're now scraping them every day trying to understand how many commits on GitHub are related to Cloud Code.
Speaker 1:And and the pushback from Roon was that this counts NPM downloads as authoritative when Cloud Code numbers are hugely inflated because GitHub actions does automatic cloud code download every time continuous integration CI runs versus Codex compute cloud. So maybe it's not apples to apples. What's more nuance on the the the fast takeoff of cloud code? Because, honestly, when you said 20% of commits by the end of the year, I was like, that feels extremely low. I would expect, like, 70%, and I would expect Codex to be at 30% and no more human commits because it's working.
Speaker 6:So I I wanted to make sure we have, like, a high standard like, a high Sure. 95% plus. Sure. I don't think like, sure. If it continues to grow on a week on week basis, like, yeah, it's, like Yeah.
Speaker 6:You know, a 100% by June or something like that.
Speaker 1:Well, there's also the there's also the fact that, like, you could be writing code and still just, like, almost be using Cloud Code as, like, your linter or, like, your your interface to GitHub. And if there's an abstraction layer there that people adopt, you're gonna see the commits go through the roof even if they're still a human in the loop meaningfully.
Speaker 6:Look. Look. Look. Look.
Speaker 1:Look.
Speaker 6:Yeah. I'm not gonna pretend, like, the code commits thing is like the cleanest way ever. Totally, totally. There's a lot of ways to fuck the data.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 6:For example, people who use, who you could just say don't do
Speaker 1:this. Yeah.
Speaker 6:And won't do it. Number two, like private on a ratio is like five times bigger. Sure. That matters way more. Yep.
Speaker 6:And then like, I also think that like the way you consume it, like this doesn't count for cursor. People have been clearly using AI for like a long while and it doesn't show up.
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 6:It this is just the example I can like say Yeah. It's like, chart goes up really quickly.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's so cool.
Speaker 4:It's not perfect.
Speaker 6:I Yeah. It's it's a dataset that I could create No.
Speaker 1:No.
Speaker 6:It's in great relatively short amount of time. And I'm like, well, no. Seems pretty cool.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. No. It it is. Can we
Speaker 2:talk about Amazon?
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Let's move over to hyperscalers.
Speaker 2:Reaction was the number two low. Dude.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Better seriously. What what
Speaker 6:Future billing was crazy. Yeah. That was crazy to me.
Speaker 1:Okay. Why?
Speaker 6:That was really shocking. You know, we do a lot of data center tracking and we do a lot of accelerator tracking and we were too up.
Speaker 1:Okay. Are they are they are they trying to play some sort of hype game where they're throwing out the biggest number and they're not actually even going to be able to buy enough equipment to spend it even if they are signaling the market we're going to be hearing like, well, we wanted to buy this many NVIDIA chips, but we couldn't get them, or we have a delay at this data center because of regulation. And so they're just trying to project strength because they're sort of behind on the AI narrative a little bit. They don't have the big position that Microsoft does in OpenAI. They don't have, you know, deep mind level team.
Speaker 1:And so they're saying, we're gonna go biggest on the dollar front, but then maybe they don't deliver on it? Or do you think at the end of the year, we'll be like, yeah, they spent $200,000,000,000
Speaker 6:think at the end of the year, they're gonna be like, yeah, they spent 200,000,000,000
Speaker 1:Let's go.
Speaker 6:They they are the single biggest provider of power in the entire world, I think. Wow. Like, the incremental. And the AWS, like, supply chain can ramp a lot quicker than anyone else. And every every example that we track in the data center, like, the data center team, they are on time and can scale to, like, levels that are crazy.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 6:Like, Ranir's ramp is just, like, out of this world fast compared to everyone else. Every other gigawatt project is essentially delayed, and they're gonna be, like, ish on time.
Speaker 1:Wow. So isn't that extremely just, like, good for Amazon? Like, they're properly positioned. They're properly transitioning. Like, they yeah.
Speaker 1:Like, who knows what happens to the rest of this. But eventually, this thing is just, like, part of the
Speaker 2:We were talking earlier. Yeah. Like, Jassy didn't exactly paint this, like, incredibly exciting vision Mhmm. And share, like, hey. We you guys are actually underestimating Yeah.
Speaker 2:Demand. Still, even if you're bullish on AI, you're underestimating demand, and we're in a position to actually try to get a more accurate read here, and that's why we're investing.
Speaker 6:Yeah. And it's funny because they could've said one thing that would've made the AWS call better, and they'd be like, yeah, we see high twenties, and, like, the stock would have
Speaker 1:ripped.
Speaker 6:Mhmm. But they're like, we continue to project to see this level of growth.
Speaker 2:Mhmm. Percentage Kind of. What percentage of the 200,000,000,000 do you think will actually flow to NVIDIA? Because NVIDIA is rallying today, that's why we're wearing white suits, but it didn't rally immediately in after hours.
Speaker 6:I think a meaningful amount. Mhmm. I I definitely cannot disclose what somebody else's thinks. Yep. But I think they're gonna run out of Tranium and and the answer is, like, what's the biggest amount of supply chain that's, like, locked up?
Speaker 6:It's it's it's NVIDIA.
Speaker 1:Yeah. That makes a ton of sense.
Speaker 2:Can you get, Macron a free semi analysis plan? Because he came out this week with his big new initiative, €30,000,000 for AI research. Yeah. France is gonna be the home of of research.
Speaker 1:How do you think all the hyperscos will respond?
Speaker 6:You you you know what's crazy is people have been trying to do a lot of work in France for a long time because they have this giant Nuclear. Nuclear power plant.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 6:Yeah. It's kinda stranded. Weird. And no one uses it, and, like, everyone wants to be like, dude, I can get a giggle out here. And then they, like, try to start building, and they're just like, yeah, this is never gonna happen.
Speaker 6:I'm just gonna go back to United States. Even though United States is, like, all fucked up, it's like, I can I can start there? And they're like, no. No. No.
Speaker 6:No. We'll start in, like, five years. Yeah. And I can think of two specific projects Yeah. That essentially did the same thing where it's like, my god.
Speaker 6:All this France data center power. And then, like, they started and, like, never mind.
Speaker 1:Yeah. That's funny. No.
Speaker 2:Why do you think Grok is climbing the charts right now? Any any insight? It's like number three after get free cash and after ChatGPT in the overall app store.
Speaker 1:The iOS app store.
Speaker 6:I dude, actually, one, this tells you how locked in I've been with Claude code. I had no idea. Yeah.
Speaker 2:You're so locked in with Claude researching the AI race that you're
Speaker 1:It's just yeah. Interesting. I mean, I I I you know, the the App Store is based on, like, acceleration, but, you know, the the the grok hype cycle of, like, you know, let's push all the Twitter users or the x users there. Like, that sort of already happened. Like, I don't know how this is happening because there isn't much hype about
Speaker 2:yeah. It's happening off x.
Speaker 1:Yeah. And a lot of people were like, yeah, like you can talk to Ani and Valentine, but like is that really popular? Might be.
Speaker 2:I know. Ani Singular.
Speaker 6:The real Singular is lonely people.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 7:Oh, my God.
Speaker 1:Maybe. Yeah.
Speaker 6:I I did see a video of, like, the Stormlight archive thing, and that I feel like like, hit a broader audience in terms of video generation. And I think video generation, like, that always kind of wins. Yeah. We actually did an
Speaker 2:analysis Yeah.
Speaker 3:Which is why you
Speaker 2:you need to be bullish on the Disney OpenAI deal.
Speaker 1:Think I so.
Speaker 3:Because we've seen Yeah.
Speaker 2:You have to be. We've seen we've seen the Nano Banana bump Yep. With Gemini. Yep. You and and this feels like it could be on an entirely different level.
Speaker 6:Yeah. Well, you know, my favorite thing is Gemini wasn't what actually, like, made it rip. It was Banana Banana.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 6:Like, the ratio, like, really improved in terms of OpenAI to Gemini
Speaker 2:Totally.
Speaker 6:And, like, way before. And then, like, Gemini, slightly helped, but I would say it's, like, 90% is Banana Banana.
Speaker 1:No. No.
Speaker 2:No. No. Can
Speaker 1:you yeah. You can just share an image, it's immediately apparent what is going on. It's a unique capability that you can't get anywhere else. They've cornered the market, specifically on, like, the image editing, not just the diffusion, but the like, being able to Yeah. Take a photo, change the background, and have it actually look like your face or have the text look great.
Speaker 1:Like, it was it was a unique unique product, really, beyond a model.
Speaker 6:Yeah. Oh oh, this is by the way, this is my final steaming hot take in Cod Code. Please. The reason why you should actually pay attention so much is because this is the first time like, image models essentially always gain share, video models always gain share, like Studio Ghibli moment, and then obviously ChatGPT. This is the first, like, new moment.
Speaker 6:Yeah. It's an in a new modality, being the agent, and it's, like, actually kicking off.
Speaker 1:Yeah. I mean, how important do you think the co work, like, a desktop app mobile functionality is to that? Because, like, the like, you can have One one second. Truly magic
Speaker 2:Chad has some insight. A lot of people using Grok video to compete for a $1,000,000 contest. Oh, that's right. That's right.
Speaker 1:Free money. You have Free money. Okay. Yeah. It's cash and then free money.
Speaker 1:The the the top two apps and the top three give you cash. That is a good fact check. Thank you, Chad. But, yeah. My my question about, like like, can you have a Studio Ghibli like moment if you have to open up a terminal just because there are so many normies that would just will never open the terminal no matter how magical the, you know, AI god is behind the terminal.
Speaker 1:It's just too much to go type one line of command.
Speaker 6:That's why co work and codex are gonna, like Yeah. Probably what actually happens. Yep. I think it's really fun to, like, play around in the, like, whatever 1% adopter. Yeah.
Speaker 6:And I'm really enjoying it, but I just don't think Yeah. Like like, yeah, it's gonna be Cowork or Codex. And Codex is actually pretty good. Codex is, I think, a slightly more polished experience than coworker.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Last question for me. Take me on the journey of what's going on with Microsoft, what you predicted, the the how that's changed, what how their strategy has changed. Like, give me the the proper way to understand Microsoft these days.
Speaker 6:Yeah. Microsoft's not in the race, bro.
Speaker 1:Why? They Where where are they?
Speaker 6:They they I know, but they're getting owned.
Speaker 1:They have all of the IP. I I I don't know. I agree with you. I don't understand why it's not like, oh, 5.3 launches? Microsoft's announcing it the same day, and it's actually integrated, and people are using it, like, on day one.
Speaker 1:It takes time.
Speaker 6:They it's a skill issue. Yeah. It's clearly something's going on. And and, honestly, the thing that makes me most bearish that is the fact that Satya is like, I'm not the CEO anymore. I'm the I'm the product manager of Copilot because I'm so boned if I don't get this figured out.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 6:Like, you can argue it is the it is now existential. Mhmm. He's decided like, hey. My CEO job is getting this one thing right. Otherwise, we're screwed.
Speaker 6:And that is kinda worrying.
Speaker 1:It does feel like they could potentially feels
Speaker 2:like Google went over the back. At the beginning of last year, kind of the the the quick pause Mhmm. Is now looking silly in the context of
Speaker 1:It was on
Speaker 2:the Amazon coming in now and saying, yeah, we're everybody's on board now. Yeah.
Speaker 6:We'll see. Yeah. Yeah. We'll see. I think they have the most to lose.
Speaker 2:Mhmm. What about utilization? Brad Gerstner was hosting CNBC today, was very cool. Mhmm. Talking about how, you know, in the .com build out, the the dark fiber was something only like 7% of fiber that was being laid was actually being used.
Speaker 2:It was, like, obvious even at the time that and yet now we're seeing GPU utilization rates, you know, maxed out.
Speaker 6:Yeah. Yeah. I think, that's a pretty good counterpoint to anyone who's like, whatever. Like, at this point, h 100 pricing has massively firmed up. B 200 pricing definitely has super firmed up.
Speaker 6:And, like, hey. There's there's clearly demand. I mean, you know, whatever they're doing on the other side of it, that's like a that's the customer's issues. But, like, I I mean, I still think like like, honestly, man, the codex or sorry. My brain's all messed up.
Speaker 6:Cloud Cloud Code has been the most magical moment in technology for me in, like, my entire time, I think.
Speaker 1:Yeah. I
Speaker 6:it just feels awesome, man.
Speaker 2:Since the Game Boy. Dude,
Speaker 6:this is better than Game Boys for me. I'm an information addict, though.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Makes sense.
Speaker 6:I I am. So
Speaker 1:Well, we appreciate you taking the time to come chat with us and writing about it and everything that you do. If you're listening Of course. Go hop on Semi Analysis.
Speaker 2:Sign up for the 10,000,000 a year plan. Do the $10,000,000
Speaker 1:a year plan.
Speaker 2:Doug's phone number, you can text him.
Speaker 6:Plan. You actually can, actually.
Speaker 2:Yeah. I know. I know.
Speaker 1:You should just do it though.
Speaker 2:I mean, and it's underpriced. You're giving it away at at It's taking away your time from your all your different agents. So you gotta price it Yeah.
Speaker 1:You're right.
Speaker 6:You know, my manager will hate
Speaker 1:that. Have a good Oh. Day. Have a good weekend. We'll talk to you soon.
Speaker 1:Cheers. Goodbye. Fin dot a I, the number one AI agent for customer service. If you want AI to handle your customer support, go to fin.ai. And without further ado, we have Max Levchin, the CEO of Affirm.
Speaker 1:Coffee King. Welcome to the show.
Speaker 2:Max, what's going on? Great to see you.
Speaker 7:See you guys. How's it going?
Speaker 2:Doing great. Catch us up on the last quarter.
Speaker 7:Pretty damn great if I do say so myself. 36% year over year growth of sales volume of our merchants. First billion dollars in revenue quarter, 1.1 ish. So
Speaker 2:Insane. Nice. What's what's what's driving that? Obviously, there's some seasonality, but what what are the inputs?
Speaker 7:End of the year quarter, some some working sales. Times happen then, but Black Friday comes to mind. The outlier grower is a firm card. That that thing is still absolutely on fire growing or a 100% year over year, both active users, transactions, like, metric you can imagine. I think it's growing triple digits.
Speaker 7:We did a thing in October. We decided we're gonna invent our own shopping holiday. Call it the big nothing because, basically, everyone got a 0% APR deal. I draw your attention to the fact that when we say it's 0% APR, it's 0% APR, and it doesn't change. It doesn't flip.
Speaker 7:We don't we don't change
Speaker 2:No fine print.
Speaker 7:No fine print, one of our core values. Literally somewhere on the wall here. Yep. Right there in the corner, it says no fine print, and we'll stick to it. And so the you know, it it really it really blew up.
Speaker 7:We we expected it to be big, but it was really, really big, and we had a a lot of merchants basically subsidize APRs down to zero for just about everyone. It had a huge impact on
Speaker 2:our numbers. Okay. So it's actually so so it's enabled by the individual merchants?
Speaker 7:Yeah. So the merchants basically said, hey, you know what? We will pay your interest.
Speaker 2:That's Yep. Majority. Cool. I wanna get right talk about fintech broadly. What it's been an absolutely wild week in in the markets.
Speaker 2:I think everybody's been looking at PayPal. Just wondering how Yeah. How can a business with, you know, this kind of user base Yeah. This this much
Speaker 1:You've never you know, licenses
Speaker 2:heavily regulated. All all these different things, it it doesn't obviously, there's management component to it.
Speaker 1:Last thing you'd vibe code, and yet it feels like it's part of that software SaaS pocalypse. But how have you been processing sort of like the AI craziness narrative? It feels like we were we were saying, like, maybe people are giving a little bit too much credit to the AI labs as disruptors, but how have you been processing it?
Speaker 7:Yeah. I I don't know if, if I would throw the PayPal baby with the AI bathwater Yeah. If you will. I think the I it is always very dangerous to comment on what the market's really saying. Market's not human.
Speaker 7:It all sorts of things, but short term, it's a voting machine. So I think the PayPal thing is really not a on software's cheap, software's free.
Speaker 3:Like, if you
Speaker 7:look at the strategy of the outgoing CEO who I know pretty well and respect greatly, he's he's a a real bona fide product guy and, you know, such I should know once it's, like, myself one of those. His strategy was very much build more software, expand the footprint of PayPal into those kinds of really interesting directions. And so if and, obviously, I was not even a little bit privy to any decisions taking place or why did they choose to change management. But if the company believed that software is better, cheaper, easier to build, they wouldn't have changed horses because the previous guy was absolutely beating the drum of let's build software. Yeah.
Speaker 7:I don't know why and what they'll do next, but I do agree with you as, you it know, is my first child.
Speaker 2:You're a
Speaker 7:little bit sad. Yeah. But I do compete with it now with my second child.
Speaker 1:So Yeah.
Speaker 2:It's so bad. Yeah. I guess I guess what do you so there's a lot of AI opportunity with with Affirm. Yeah. The opportunity one, people just understanding more about the financial products that they use in their everyday life and start to prove you know, choose products that don't have all the fine print.
Speaker 2:Obviously, efficiency in the business is a is a whole other one. I'm sure that you're getting a lot out of that. But when people ask you about the AI risk to Affirm, anything on the risk side and then and then payments companies as well, what what is your answer?
Speaker 7:So I think I have a fairly basic framework how I think about sort of AI changes everything. AI doesn't change that much. Sort of, you know, very broad characterization here. If you're in the business of owning cash flow producing assets or better yet manufacturing cash flow producing assets, you're probably gonna be okay. Like, today, if you're making things that create cash flow, you're probably using software.
Speaker 7:If you're not you're not doing it right, and so if you are and you're using software or making software to create cash flow and assets, it's about to get really, really cheap and much faster and a lot more efficient. And we're certainly taking full advantage of that idea at Affirm, and that's what we do. We make cash flow producing assets that are known as Affirm loans. There are about 40 odd million of them made every quarter and growing pretty quickly. It is difficult to roll out a bet and say, let's vibe code that because you can vibe code some of the code, but before you get to our scale or our revenue, you have to convince the enormous number of out markets partners you need to process on the order, you know, tens of billions of dollars of loans.
Speaker 7:We're not a bank. We're not lending from our own deposits. That means someone downstream is financing these loans. And so those relationships are not vibe coded, and they can't happen overnight.
Speaker 2:Yeah. You can't you can't vibe code a relationship, a real one.
Speaker 5:You cannot.
Speaker 2:Yeah. So with payments, you have we we you know, the the whole regulatory side too. If you're going in you're, like, in your dorm room and you're like, hey, I built PayPal, and you go to say like, okay, now I should probably get some money transmitter licenses. Like, you know, I I expect at some point regulators to say like, okay, like, what does what does your operation look like? Do you have any compliance experience?
Speaker 2:And all and all these things. And and so at some point and then and then what you're saying is the capital markets is probably even a bigger challenge. Let's say you you can somehow get the licensees the licenses, then are people gonna trust you with, you know, billions of dollars? Mhmm.
Speaker 7:Exactly. The both another sort of way of cutting the whole AI accelerates everything. Some things are still taking about as long as they always did. So regulators are not going to be like, oh, cool. You're in your dorm room.
Speaker 7:You vibe coded a global payment network right on. Here's some license. But, like, it takes eighteen months to get a full complement of MTLs. And by the way, you have to, like, prove that you're a legitimate business, and you're not gonna be used for money laundering.
Speaker 2:And they're and it's very expensive. It's not like a like a driver's license where you get it, there's no kind of, like, ongoing like, it's like you need to be able to, like, carry the the weight of of of the licensees.
Speaker 7:Yeah. So licensing, regulatory acceptance, regulatory relationships, and capital markets is a lot, and it takes a long time to prove that as you put someone else's money at risk, you're going to bring it back Mhmm. With interest. So that's a big part of what we do. Another set of relationships you can't fight code is we have last quarter four ish 100,000 active merchants where these transactions took place.
Speaker 7:Each one of those is a sales conversation, contract negotiation, going live, etcetera. The going live part is gonna get a lot faster. So we could now go to a merchant and say, hey. Good news. We're gonna vibe code the launch together.
Speaker 7:It'll be a lot quicker. So instead of going live next quarter, we'll go live next week. But until we get there, someone still has to decide that this is a good contract and prove that this will be accretive to the merchant. And finally, maybe the most important to our relationships is the consumer one. So we have 26,000,000 active consumers in the last twelve months.
Speaker 7:These are people that trusted us that the no fine printing is real.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 7:It took us fifteen years to convince people that when we say 0% loan like, the original conversations I had literally with people, both in the industry and the man on the street, like, we're gonna lend money at no interest so long as the merchants won't be subsidized the transaction. Like, yeah. Sure. No interest. It's gonna be a fine print.
Speaker 7:It's gonna go to 39% APR. Like, no. It really never does. Never had, never will. That's part of the core value of of this company.
Speaker 7:Yeah. Takes a little while to convince people that you're not just, you know, I'm not a crook, I think. So I'm I'm I'm fairly confident in our ability to be vendor.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Last question for me. I'm interested to know we're very excited about ads and ChatGPT and agentic commerce. Do you have a feeling not to hold you to something, but I just love, how fast the ramp in agentic commerce and people actually making the decision to purchase in a chat app might be. We we, you know, we talked to the folks at Shopify a lot.
Speaker 1:We've so we're trying to triangulate this. I thought last Black Friday might be a little glimmer of it. It feels like they're still implementing a lot of things. Obviously, there's details to iron out, but it feels like certainly this year could be the the the time when we're seeing 0.1%, 1%. I don't know.
Speaker 1:10% seems sort of high and crazy, but it's where the future's going. But how do you think about agent to commerce numbers this year? Don't hold me to it. Yeah. I won't.
Speaker 7:The the curves are all turning vertical.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 7:And so it's hard to say if it's one if if it's one, then it's 10. If it's 10, it's a lot.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 7:But I think some shopping is going to turn very agentic as in I will tell my Yeah. You know, consumer co worker equivalent or what, you know, what, you're filling your favorite brand Yeah. Go buy me some milk.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 7:Like, the rest of this happened, which will be awesome. I will also do that today with Instagram.
Speaker 1:So Yeah.
Speaker 7:The I wanna buy a cool new espresso machine, which I'm currently shopping for
Speaker 2:Of course.
Speaker 7:I want I want that experience to be much more interactive because I'm obsessed with espresso. And so it's entertainment is, like, nerding out. I'm like, oh, they have a rotary pump.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 7:It's not as loud as the vibration one. So I think it's going to become augmented by agents, but it's still going to be like, I'm very much a part of this, and that becomes to blend into, like, well, research with Google versus research with Gemini did the same thing.
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 7:Which sort of brings me to I think there's a quite quite a bit of industry pearl clutching around ads and chatbots. Oh my god. Like, I think that's the best thing that's going to happen to this industry. Like, is holding their breath around on one hand, will AI kill software, software eats software, whatever? This is like, will will they be able to afford this giant build out so these models can get smarter?
Speaker 7:Guess what? We make most of the money on the Internet, not us, but most of the rest of the Internet makes money with ads. Mhmm. So ads in these single fast growing piece of the Internet wouldn't be such a bad thing for people that need a lot of capital.
Speaker 1:So Yeah.
Speaker 7:I, for one, welcome the ads and bots. So long as clearly delineated, there's ethical concerns, all that stuff.
Speaker 1:But Of course.
Speaker 4:I think
Speaker 7:I think it's coming fast and, you know, I've I think so far, people have under predicted the pace of these changes. So I'm not gonna claim that it's gonna be 10% by the end of the year, but it won't shock me
Speaker 1:if it's Yeah. That would be sort of my high my my high bound. And I'm it'll be hard to measure because with that espresso machine, people will clearly do a ton of re I I I could imagine firing off a deep research report. Tell me everything. Understand the landscape.
Speaker 1:How long are the companies? I wanna know the company's history. Did who's the founder? Tell me everything. But then also, wanna go to the website, and also, I wanna go to the showroom.
Speaker 1:And also, you know and then maybe I make the purchase after talking to somebody. I walk out of the store and I say, hey. Buy that thing. Ship it here. Or maybe I do all the research, then I, you know, tell someone else to just purchase it, and they go buy it in person because I want it the same day.
Speaker 1:There there's, like, a million different edge cases. So the number will be hard, but I my my vibes based analysis is right, right in the same target slot as yours. So, fantastic.
Speaker 2:Last question for me. How what's your buy versus build framework in the context of Affirm? There's you guys have are clearly able to take products zero to one internally quite well, like with the card. But at the same time, it feels like there's so much in the world that's on sale right now.
Speaker 7:True. You know, m and a wise, we've done a couple of things well and a bunch of things less well, and so we're very, very cautious. So, you know, as the world goes on sale, it's tempting to look at, you know, things that are maybe undervalued, maybe could could plug right into the puzzle or accountability here. Generally speaking, we're super cautious. So for a number of people that run-in with, like, hey.
Speaker 7:Cool. We can buy this thing now. My answer typically is, why would we would would we benefit from this? Like, is is this is this better owned by us then? Maybe a different version of the same question is
Speaker 2:Well, yeah. Yeah. Just just because you might make a fantastic CEO of a company that's on sale doesn't mean that it wouldn't be massively distracting Yeah. If you were to try to integrate it and make it a part of the ecosystem.
Speaker 7:Yeah. And and and back to sort of, like, some things are super accelerating, and some things are exactly as slow or as fast as they've always been. Mhmm. The human relationship part where a new team comes in, and you're like, I just bought you. How exactly do we get along now?
Speaker 7:Like, that's not gonna get any easier. And if anything, it's gonna get like, there's a lot of CEOs I know who are thinking it'd be a great time to sell my company. Not because I wanna sell my company, but because there's so much opportunity in this AI enabled world. I wanna start another one.
Speaker 1:I wanna start something new. Greenfield.
Speaker 7:That's actually a terrible thing for the acquirer.
Speaker 1:Yeah. That's bad.
Speaker 7:The other one thing you want is that the typical value of the asset is the
Speaker 1:team. Yeah.
Speaker 7:The team is like, I'm just trying to dump this thing. Like, I'm not sure what I want.
Speaker 1:Yep. Well, thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us. Good luck.
Speaker 2:We've the search for the
Speaker 1:ultimate press release machine. Let us know what you decide. We'll announce You
Speaker 2:should have the the max maxes list, the top rated Yes. Different machines. Anyways, great to catch up.
Speaker 7:I'll leave you with that. I own two identical Linea minis.
Speaker 2:Very good.
Speaker 7:One breaks.
Speaker 1:This is commitment. This is serious. Smart. I like that. That's peak performance.
Speaker 1:Well, you so much for taking the time. We'll to you soon. Have a great weekend.
Speaker 2:Cheers.
Speaker 1:Goodbye. Let me tell you about Eleven Labs. Build intelligent, real time conversational agents. Reimagine human technology interaction with Eleven Labs.
Speaker 2:And we know there was some roughness on the audio there. That is why we're making the TBPN. We're working
Speaker 5:on them.
Speaker 2:The pit lane headset. Yes. We're not gonna send mics to people. We are gonna send people
Speaker 1:headsets It's gonna look with like
Speaker 2:you're in With the boom mic.
Speaker 1:It's gonna look like you're in the paddock. It's gonna look like you're
Speaker 2:Not in the paddock. No? In the pit lane.
Speaker 1:In the pit lane. Yeah. In the pit lane. Sorry.
Speaker 2:Well, without further ado, I guess we don't have our guests yet.
Speaker 1:Let me tell about Cognition. They're the makers of Devon, the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. And I was looking at
Speaker 2:And crushing it in the enterprise.
Speaker 1:Crushing it in the enterprise. Yes. Great. The company is doing fantastically. But Jordan Schneider did an interesting side by side of of Devin versus Claude Code building a RTS, a real time strategy game, and said congrats to Scott Wu and Russell Kaplan on the decisive win.
Speaker 1:And he's, he's vibe coding games, which I'm excited for these to release. I feel like the the we're we're things are happening so fast, and yet I wanna play Scholto's game. I wanna play more vibe coded games. All of those Instagram reel ads that show you the fake games that are all clickbait to get you to buy some, you know, game that's ultimately Candy Crush. I want the actual game that looks Yep.
Speaker 1:Fun where you're fighting the zombies or something.
Speaker 2:Okay. Some quick context before TJ joins. Yes. So he's coming on to talk to us about Trump Rx, launched, I believe, yesterday. Yes.
Speaker 2:And then also this new Wegovy GLP one pill that was launched and then immediately cloned by
Speaker 1:Hims
Speaker 2:Hers. Novo Nordisk put out a press release
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 2:On the illegal mass compounding and deceptive advertising by HIMS and Hers. Q Cap said Novo is basically calling HIMS a corner store drug dealer.
Speaker 1:Wait. Does does Novo not believe that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery?
Speaker 2:No. They think it's disgusting. Interesting. Novo Nordisk issued the following statement regarding the announcement by Hims and Hers that they will unlawfully mass market an unapproved, inauthentic, and untested knockoff semaglutide pill. The action by Hims and Hers is illegal mass compounding that poses a significant risk to patient safety.
Speaker 2:Those are harsh words. Novo Nordisk will take legal and regulatory action to protect patients, our IP, and the integrity of The US Gold Standard Drug Approval Framework. And Doctor. Marty Makary, the commissioner of the FDA said, The FDA will take swift action against companies mass marketing illegal copycat drugs claiming they are similar to FDA approved products. The FDA cannot verify the quality, safety or effectiveness of drugs.
Speaker 1:Marty has a great book, by the way. You should read it if you want to know more about the FDA strategy. It's a very fascinating contrarian take on health care. He identifies a bunch of interesting places where, for some psychological reason or some sort of structural reason, scientists that had discovered some truth about health care or medicine were unable to sort of propagate their finding, and he identifies a number of these, the sort of bizarre scenarios. So we'll dig into it quickly.
Speaker 1:Let me tell you about Sentry. Sentry shows developers what's broken and helps them fix it fast. That's why a 150,000 organizations use it to keep their apps working. And without further ado, let's bring in TJ Parker TJ the rich and way czar. To the TVP on Ultradigm.
Speaker 1:Welcome to the show.
Speaker 2:How are
Speaker 1:you doing?
Speaker 5:I am great. How
Speaker 4:are you?
Speaker 1:I'm good. Complicated day in the news. Where should we start first? What what's story? Cooled Porsches.
Speaker 1:Air cooled Porsches. Are they still cool in the age of AI, or am I gonna be able to vibe code one?
Speaker 5:I think they're gonna be cooler in the age of AI.
Speaker 2:There we go.
Speaker 1:I like it. Tracker. Yeah. What about in health care?
Speaker 2:Yeah. Big big week. Yeah. Wanna talk about let's just jump straight into the the Wegovy Sure. Novo Nordisk Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. HIMs drama. What what's been your reaction? How have you been tracking the story up until this week? All that good stuff.
Speaker 5:Yeah. I think maybe to jump back to how we got here, and I think folks are probably pretty familiar with this, but the HEMS of the world were obviously compounding the injectable for quite a long time. But the origination of that was that those injectables were in short order. They were on back order, and so they were allowed to compound them as a stop gap for the manufacturers to get sufficient supply.
Speaker 1:And that was basically real in the early, early phases of this. Right?
Speaker 2:That Yeah. That was because if someone's overweight and they want to lose weight quickly, being overweight is Yeah. Healthy, not good for your lifespan, all
Speaker 1:time. And so that's why the FDA is set up in that way. But the question is like how long does that
Speaker 2:Basically, go HEMS got addicted to compounding.
Speaker 5:Yeah. And that was maybe, call it eighteen months ago or so, where that was kind of that peaked. And then the FDA did issue a warning letter to HIMSS back in the fall when the shortage ended telling them to stop mass compounding. So they have commented on this before, but their level of enforcement has been lacking.
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 5:I think the stark difference with what happened yesterday is that the Wegovy pill has a specific technology called SNAC that they actually paid $2,000,000,000 for the IP specifically for that technology to allow for you to be able to actually absorb the peptide and have the drug be effective. And HIMSS explicitly, I say that they didn't use that technology and so they're using liposomal absorption, which maybe it works, maybe it doesn't, but there's certainly
Speaker 2:not Well then it's just like insane. It's you're insane. You're selling a a drug that you claim works that has no, like Approval? Approval testing. Approval.
Speaker 2:Right? Is this is this is
Speaker 5:like studies, zero zero approval. So this is where it's super different from the injectables where they weren't changing the formulation. Right? It was very similar to the branded drug. Yeah.
Speaker 5:We can talk about the challenges of IP and a bunch of things, but it's different in the sense that here, there's no evidence that this drug works at all. And so the most likely scenario is they're selling a, you know, a 50 drug that doesn't work, that still has a bunch of side effects because it still has the drug that just doesn't get absorbed through your GI. So it's it's it's very different. It's not an IP issue. It's really an efficacy and and safety issue, which is why I think you saw the FDA come out much faster in a much more explicit way pretty immediately after the launch yesterday.
Speaker 2:Why would HIMSS do something that seems completely nonsensical and bad for patients and bad.
Speaker 1:Well, I have a quote here from them. Compounding is a safe, legal, and long recognized practice within the American healthcare system. So that's their stance.
Speaker 2:Okay. But ignoring the fact that they're inventing a new delivery mechanism via liposomal for and are selling it as a product claiming.
Speaker 1:That's why they're getting pushed back.
Speaker 5:Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think the situation is you have a $5,000,000,000 market cap company where half of their revenue is these compounded GLP ones, so that market is quickly contracting on them. They're doing a bunch of buybacks. They've invested a ton in incremental CapEx.
Speaker 5:It's like a recipe for disaster if that revenue starts to fall away. Mhmm. And it
Speaker 2:feels Do they take the pill? The pill is just gonna do they is the expectation that the pill is gonna effectively eat the injectable market? Because a lot of people would rather take a pill than, you know, have have to do an injection even if it's once a week.
Speaker 5:Yeah. I think if you look at the archetype of who I believe to be the HIMSS customer, they're buying the injectable because it was the cheapest place to get it. Now you have a branded drug that's half the price of their injectable. Like, think it's partially the the route of administration. Think partially that it's just half the price.
Speaker 2:Mhmm.
Speaker 5:And so it's it's hard to imagine that they're not gonna have a significant issue with churn Yeah. And people switching from the injectable. Partially, yeah, because of the the ease of use, but also it's just literally half the price, which was their entire value prop
Speaker 2:prior to the pill launch. Is not expecting are they able to mass produce this already? Like, are they Yeah.
Speaker 5:They have no shortage issues. They've been ramping up production for quite some time. Yeah. I think they were quite prepared for the launch, and so you have none of the shortage dynamics. And frankly, like, pills are exponentially easier to manufacture than than their injectable pens specifically, which is where the shortages came from.
Speaker 5:Yep. So there's no similar rationale. I think it's also, I think, comparatively reasonable that you don't wanna force a bunch of patients off the injectable product. So there is, like, a reasonable safety argument that that has to be, like, a very thoughtful and calculated wind down. Now I think they've they're onboarding new customers, it doesn't totally hold water compared to the behavior.
Speaker 5:But in this instance, it feels more like a financial hail Mary given, I think, what the market dynamics are gonna do to them over the next twelve months.
Speaker 1:What about the alternative scenario or playbook? Like, I remember HIMSS as being sort of like a front end to drugs that they didn't compound, and it was a place to get hair loss medication and and sort of name brand drugs that I felt like just it was online pharmacy. Like, doesn't that model work in the age of peptides and GLP-1s? Why can't you just be the digital doctor that prescribes, then you go pick it up at your local pharmacy?
Speaker 5:A couple of reasons. And I think if you look at their competitive set, the biggest one being Roe, obviously, that's how they manage through this. Right? They have not remained reliant on compounded drugs as the shortage has gone away. They've ramped up their access points to branded therapies.
Speaker 5:They're that's exactly what they're doing and executing. I think when you're in the position of HIMSS, it's hard to not get addicted to a $250 product with 90% gross margins when if you're selling access to the branded drug at most, you're gonna make 10 to $15 on a $150 product. And so I think they've, to some degree, don't realize the business they're in. Like, in a traditional retailer and distribution business, which is really the business that they're in, they're not a manufacturer. Mhmm.
Speaker 5:That's a scale, low margin business where price, convenience, like, the things that make Amazon successful make you successful. They have sort of morphed into a manufacturing business without any of the IP Yeah. Any of the r and d costs, like any of the things that come along with being a manufacturer. And I think it's an addictive addicting place to be because the margins are quite a bit better than than being a retailer.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Can you explain more about this, the the the warning letter that the FDA, shared addressed to Hims and Her Health in 09/09/2025. You can find this on fda.gov. They're saying it says the FDA has observed that your website offers various compounded drugs including semaglutide as described alone, that your claims are concerning your compounded semaglutide products are false or misleading. How would a company normally respond to a warning letter from the FDA?
Speaker 1:It's not fully shut down. It's not a lawsuit. It's more of a a corrective by the FDA. Is that correct?
Speaker 5:Yeah. I think historically, in combating specifically, the FDA has lacked material enforcement.
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 5:And so in many ways, I think what you're seeing here is that there's a skepticism that they'll actually enforce. And so it's business as usual. Yeah. Don't take the warning letter seriously.
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 5:I think with that overlay, think the reason the FDA still sends letters like that is if they do have a material safety issue Mhmm. Which is what has happened with compounding in the past. You had sixty people die of meningitis in 2012
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 5:From a compounding pharmacy doing scale compounding. They have a a paper trail of telling them that you are out of compliance. Mhmm. And so, you know, I think this will probably be a different situation. I think one important point is the FDA does not enforce IP.
Speaker 5:So they're not gonna get involved in
Speaker 1:Sure.
Speaker 5:Actual quote unquote IP theft. That's for the courts.
Speaker 1:Got it.
Speaker 5:But they do enforce safety and efficacy, which is why I think they address this so much faster because they believe it's a efficacy issue, not solely an IP infringement issue, which would again be be left to the courts.
Speaker 1:Yeah. What about Walmart? Are they a potential way out of this? You need scale. I don't know how advanced they are, but, you know, you have an you have experience with Amazon.
Speaker 1:Walmart just hit a trillion dollar market cap. It seems like the business is doing well. They were not disrupted. They need more technology. Is there something where a partnership could allow HIMSS to sort of go get out of the compounding business and go more to the scaled low margin business but still be growing?
Speaker 5:Yeah. It it feels like just given the reputation that that would be hard to imagine happening. I think they have built obviously a lot of compelling customer experiences. They've built really good tech. But I think just given the overhang from these regulatory challenges, it's hard to imagine a large acquire is gonna get comfortable with that kind of retrospective and presumably ongoing liability.
Speaker 2:Mhmm. Yeah. Switching gears. Yeah. Trump r x.
Speaker 2:What's up with that?
Speaker 5:Yeah. I feel like I should take a victory lap here. I think I the first time I was on here was to talk about the executive order for Trump r x. And I think my point at that moment in time was that the real thrust of that EO, which was not super clear then, but is how I interpreted it, is that it was an effort to eliminate this diff this discrepancy between super high list prices and the net prices that insurers and PBMs actually pay. Right?
Speaker 5:So for these GLP ones, they have these thousand dollar or $1,200 list prices. But in reality, if you're a PBM, you're paying $200, $300. And I think that's exactly what you saw here where there's a number of branded drugs, which before, if you were a consumer paying out of pocket, you had to pay that high list price. They've gotten the manufacturers to come to the table and offer a consumer directed net price. So, really, if you are paying out of pocket for a bunch of these drugs, you're saving 70% compared to what was available to you a year ago.
Speaker 5:Now some of that could just be the GLP one market forces, but that wouldn't have touched a number of the products that have moved on to Trump Rx. I think given the selection, it's maybe, like, 25 actual brands that haven't gone generic that have low net prices that are on there right now. It's not the most exciting thing in the world, but I do think you're gonna see manufacturers just start to launch new products at net, and that will completely unwind the value of the current supply chain, middlemen, PBMs, all those things. So I think it's not good, but I think it's, like, the early days of what could materially change how these things go to market and the pricing that's associated with that.
Speaker 2:So it's not just good marketing for the midterms?
Speaker 5:No. I mean, think it is good marketing. I think everyone has quoted these ridiculous list prices as the actual price. It's been like a pet peeve of mine forever, and they are now quoting much lower kind of list prices. So I think that is gonna be perceived as, a win for the midterms.
Speaker 5:But the drugs aren't actually cheaper than, like, a payer would have paid a year ago, but they are cheaper than a consumer could have gotten access to a year ago. So I think it's net good and I think hopefully a trend that will accelerate and change the pricing dynamics more dramatically.
Speaker 1:Can I ask about AI doctors?
Speaker 2:That's what I was gonna ask about, John.
Speaker 1:Amazing. You read my mind. The same thing. We've talked to a couple companies that have come on and and talked about consumer level AI doctor. Doctor in your pocket, you you know, you got a mole, you take a picture of it, it tells you what it you know, you say, I feel sick.
Speaker 1:It'll tell you go get some blood work done or something. Some of them have partnered with certain states to get real doctors involved. There's a whole bunch of different models. At the same time, they're facing pressure from OpenAI, and, you know, they're launching a health product. How do you think that market plays out?
Speaker 1:What are you optimistic about? How how much can it actually improve American health care? There's always a lot of talk about, like, if you just talk you know, primary care doctor was available more frequently, we'd be way healthier. And I don't know that there's that many people that are like, well, I never thought to Google I should sleep, diet, and exercise. So now that I can chat GBT, I'm I'm healthy.
Speaker 1:But walk me through your whole philosophy on, like, AI chatbots in consumer health care.
Speaker 5:Yeah. I mean, I think, first of all, it's obviously goodness. Right? I think people are really going to GPTs to get advice on their health, and I think it's something like seven or 8% of ChatGPT's volume is health related, health specific. So clearly, that's net good.
Speaker 5:I think in many ways, it replaces people going to Google to do the same thing. It's much more efficient. It's definitely more effective. So that's all good. I think the my thesis on the end state of that and where it really unlocks a bunch of value is when it is fully aware of all your medical history.
Speaker 5:Mhmm. And so that's pretty critical. And ChatGPT has launched a version of that, though it's pretty light on the actual data integration. Then more They specific acquired
Speaker 2:they acquired some company, I think, to help with that. Wasn't it the the the it was a there's a company it wasn't it called was a it was a company that was like trying Torch, to like Yeah. Torch. It was the what was the name of the company they had before? It was not not Future.
Speaker 2:Forward. Forward Health. Yeah.
Speaker 6:Yep. So clearly, they're thinking
Speaker 3:about all this stuff.
Speaker 5:Yeah. There's a fundamental regulatory framework where if you're a provider, you can access a much broader set of data to deliver care to the consumer. If you're a technology company, they're accessing via this thing called Tefka Mhmm. Where very few providers are contributing data to that. And so there's a lot of nuance to this, but the the punch line is that if you are purely a technology company, your access to the breadth of data necessary to be useful is much more limited.
Speaker 2:So you basically need to be a provider that employs actual medical doctors?
Speaker 5:You need to be a provider actually providing care to that customer. Yeah.
Speaker 2:Yeah. And so so we had one of these companies, Lotus, on the other day. And if he's in an investor pitch and people are like, hey, like, AI doctor is cool, but Chatuchibut is doing this. Claude's doing this. There's other companies that are, or or Claude might, you know, do something like this.
Speaker 2:There's other companies that are it's super competitive space. They're saying, okay. But OpenAI is not gonna have doctors on staff, and it's not gonna actually be licensed Yeah. And able to actually deliver.
Speaker 5:It doesn't prohibit them from doing interesting things with partners or via MCP or some other approach that, can mimic, you know, some of the things that we built at general medicine and some other folks are building. But in and of themselves, whether it's Claude or ChatGPT or Apple Health, any of these guys, their their ability to provide similar levels of care is just gonna be constrained. I also think that the probably the more salient point is I think where this becomes really magic is where all of these conversations get actually distilled to your provider before your appointment. So instead of having to repeat all the things you've already said and, like, go back through your medical history, like, you're all you sort of show up to the appointment. Your provider's been prepped based on everything you've already chatted about and can actually start to, like, deal with what they might wanna do in that appointment.
Speaker 5:So that's where we've seen it be the most interesting and useful, and I'm sure other folks will end up in a similar spot. Yeah. But I think, like, the combination of GPT all the way through to the visit, informing the visit, then informing the care is super powerful.
Speaker 1:What's the textbook example of, like, medical history being valuable? Because maybe I'm just, like, in a weird spot, but I usually just say, no. I don't I haven't done anything. But like, I I I don't know. Like, if you like, I I I don't know.
Speaker 1:I I actually haven't broken any bones. I guess assuming, like, I was like, I broke my arm when I was five. Like, does that really, like, increase cancer risk? Like, how how are these things actually flowing through? Like, what's the textbook Well, I
Speaker 2:think the average American is on prescription medication.
Speaker 1:Okay. So they show up and they're like, oh, you're already on this medication.
Speaker 2:Why did you So on that.
Speaker 5:Yeah. I mean, I'll give you, like, a a tangible example that, like, Elliot experienced in our GPT, which is he's been having this plentiful fasciitis issue on one foot. I hope he doesn't mind that I'm sharing his PHI. Yeah. And the GPT was able
Speaker 1:show, actually. Yeah.
Speaker 5:The GPT was able to decipher that at the same thing on the other foot in, like, 2006 or something, like, from, like, twenty years ago.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 5:Which is where like you just he didn't even remember having the issue. It was not relevant to him.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 5:And I think there's more like substantive examples where you might have had a series of lab tests over the last five years. Any one of them is not problematic, but the trends that are being exposed when
Speaker 1:you can
Speaker 5:that trend is pretty, you know, compelling.
Speaker 1:Okay.
Speaker 5:That makes sense. It's also just like you can recommend all sorts of screenings based on when you've actually done those screenings and what hasn't been done, that kind of thing.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. No. That that makes a ton of sense. Jordan, anything else?
Speaker 1:Is it dangerous that OpenAI hooked a bio lab up to Oh, yeah. Who's behind there?
Speaker 2:We're gonna have the founder, of Ginkgo who they Lucian's amazing. They partnered with on on the on the AI, BioLab. But what are your thoughts? Do you wanna vibe code some some
Speaker 1:Some drugs.
Speaker 2:Some studies?
Speaker 5:Seems like a fun experiment. Yeah. You know, but what could possibly go wrong?
Speaker 1:We'll clip it when it happens, when the world ends, the one final clip.
Speaker 2:We're like TJ called it.
Speaker 5:TJ called it. Big doomer.
Speaker 1:Yeah. There will be victory laps if the apocalypse happens for sure.
Speaker 2:Last last question. How have you been processing the all the EV manufacturers having to basically take these massive or sorry, just car manufacturers in general Yeah. Taking these massive hits. It was Stellantis is down something like 20% after the company announced it's taking a $26,000,000,000 hit and writing down their electric vehicle business. Did you did you predict this as well?
Speaker 5:You know, I'm I'm still loving my Raptor R, which gets about 11 miles per gallon. So I think you know how I feel about the situation. Yeah.
Speaker 1:That's great. I'm trying to get Jordy to get one.
Speaker 2:You're buying your you're buying your carbon you're buying your carbon offsets though. Right? Yeah. Of course.
Speaker 5:Yeah. Yeah. For sure. Yep.
Speaker 1:For sure.
Speaker 6:Thank you.
Speaker 1:Yep. Awesome. Alright. Thank you so much for coming on the show.
Speaker 2:Great to catch up.
Speaker 1:Great to catch up. I'm sure there'll be
Speaker 2:a lot more here.
Speaker 4:So we'll have you
Speaker 1:back you soon.
Speaker 5:Pleasure as always.
Speaker 1:Cheers. Have a good weekend. Let me tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI. Their business is securing it.
Speaker 1:CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches. And without further ado, we're going over to the co founder and SVP of field engineering from Databricks. Arsalan, welcome to the show. How are you doing?
Speaker 2:What's happening?
Speaker 4:Hey, guys. Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1:Good to see you. Great to meet. First time on the show, I believe. Please introduce yourself. Tell us what you do.
Speaker 4:It is when we say, first time, first time tuning in, long time watcher or lurker or something like that.
Speaker 1:I appreciate it. We enjoyed talking to your cofounder.
Speaker 4:Awesome. Well, yeah, guys. Arsal and Tavakoli, one of the cofounders here at Databricks. Yeah. You know, run what's known as field engineering.
Speaker 4:So think about anything technical, not in core r
Speaker 2:and d.
Speaker 4:So it's about a third of the company, roughly, give or take. And then before that, like, the other founders came out of Berkeley, and as my adviser likes to say, I joined the dark side in between him. Then I went to a consulting company. McKinsey spent about four years there before we started about 12 go.
Speaker 2:We love we love you know we love to hear that. Put in put in your time. I I got We we were on a flight the other day and and John and I were asking this guy, to switch seats with us because we like to we like to we we, some people are surprised, but even after three hours of recording, we still wanna keep We do. Talking. And the guy had a UBS shirt on and John John was like, do you work at UBS?
Speaker 2:And he's like, yeah. And John goes, thank you for your service. And the guy the guy just started laughing.
Speaker 1:He thought I was making
Speaker 2:a viral you for your service at McKinsey.
Speaker 1:You gotta thank your bankers, your Swiss bankers specifically. I want your reaction to this Tyler Cowen post. Today will go down as some kind of turning point, somewhat arbitrarily, but it's okay if journalists and historians have to present things in that manner. He posted this at eleven a. On February 5.
Speaker 1:That, of course, was the day that both Codex 5.3 and Opus 4.6 launched. It feels like he's talking about software engineering, automated software engineering, AI agents, sort of everything coming to a head. How have you been processing this week? Does it feel like there's a turning point? Is this all part of some smooth curve?
Speaker 1:What's been your view on the ground?
Speaker 4:Look, I think, I've lost track now based on those definitions. I think we've had, like, 3,000 watershed moments in the past year that everybody said is, like, the More
Speaker 2:than More than one day. Way more than one That's
Speaker 1:why we have three hours of content every day. It works perfectly for us.
Speaker 4:Like, every day, I tune into x and somebody's like, this is the day.
Speaker 1:This is it. The singularity is here. It's over. We're back.
Speaker 4:Look. I've I I mean, I I think it's more of a smoother curve, right, as we go through. And Yeah. Clearly, every day, I think it's a combination of the technologies getting better. Mhmm.
Speaker 4:But I think a lot of it right now, what holds people back, what they can do, is less the technology, but it's more people learning how to use it, how to deploy it, all the things around it to to put value. Like, that's gonna be the long tail. I think we're not even close to harnessing the technology that we have today, much less saying, hey, it got a little bit better now. Everything's gonna change, at least from what we're seeing.
Speaker 1:Yeah. So talk about your forward deployed engineers, whatever you call them, like implementation, how you like to work with companies, and then I wanna compare and understand what it might look like at the labs as they sort of dip their toe into the FDE model.
Speaker 4:Yeah. Look, I think so I I think that there's two things. A lot of places when they talk about forward deployed engineers, so this is the cool term right now, I guess, this concept that says, go to ask people what is it that you want? What's the outcome that you wanna drive? You wanna do, you know, revenue forecast optimization?
Speaker 4:You wanna do demand forecasting, and then I'll build something for you. Mhmm. The problem is many of the organizations just can't leave a talk about that are kinda like, okay. I'll build something custom for you. I'll get it fast, but then the hard part is is that scalable?
Speaker 4:Is it open? How does that work? So Databricks is probably a little bit different than the rest of them because we've got an actual platform and product that's used by over 20,000 people. Mhmm. But I think right now when you look at it in the AI world
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 4:What works for us at least is we go in and some organizations right now are saying help me with a specific problem. Like, I wanna do you know, let me get my data in order, which is important for AI, or let me kind of do a migration, or let me set this up. And then we have the same set if somebody says, come help me, like, transform, like, Fox knew if you know Fox, Cletus, the sports app that they have that you can ask questions like that one, they were like,
Speaker 2:come build something. Paul at Fox is a good buddy. Don't know if you know
Speaker 1:if you
Speaker 4:So he's like, come build it soup to nuts for that. And that was one that we did everything end to end and deliver something that works, that they want. So we span the gamut from helping you work with products to kind of actually delivering outcomes. We do both.
Speaker 1:Okay. And then, best practices, pretend I'm a CEO of, AI Lab who will remain a a nameless, and I'm trying to hire 700, a couple thousand, consulting type for deployed sales engineering roles. What are best practices? How fast can you actually spin someone up to become a, you know, an effective for deployed engineer? What's what what are the pitfalls?
Speaker 4:Yeah. Lots of questions embedded in there. So, look, I think, first and foremost, what you're looking for today for people is they need to do two things. Mhmm. One, they actually have to be able to build hands on.
Speaker 4:I think you end up in the solution engineer space getting a lot of what I call like the slideware demos. Like, hey, I can I'm a walking dictionary. I can tell you about things. I can build a deck. It just doesn't really cut it anymore.
Speaker 4:So one, there's much more that what people say is come show me, rapidly prototype. So they have to be able to build, and they have to be able to use AI tools to build. Otherwise, they're gonna be slow. The second thing is, you can't just go get engineers. They have to be able to talk to customers.
Speaker 4:Because, like, the most important thing is if I go walk to your, basically, CEO or CIO, have to be able to say, what's your business problem, understand why it matters, and decompose that into technical pieces. So you need people who have both of those. So you have to screen from it. It's different than what the what I would call the traditional solution engineering interviews are. In terms of how fast to get somebody ramped up, look, you're hiring smart people.
Speaker 4:Generally, to get familiar with all the tools, we'd say three months is fast, six months is when they're operating at full steam. It doesn't mean that you can't drop them in front of customers, you know, in the first couple of weeks, But that's the amount of time that they get set, like, what are the most common problems? What's the most efficient way? How do I navigate an organization? And you can hire a lot, but absorbing too many people too fast just means you're also gonna candidly degrade culture and skill set.
Speaker 1:Yeah. We were just talking to Doug Laughlin about how he's using Cloud Code. He's he's vibe coding all these things. And a lot of what he was describing were sort of like one off data analyses or small smaller projects that could sort of run locally, be compressed, like spreadsheet level. Certainly not, you know, big data cross, you know, like Databricks level infrastructure required, but I'm wondering if you see a world where an individual would vibe code something that's so big and processing so much data that the agent or the individual vibe coder is actually pulling Databricks off the shelf.
Speaker 1:Like, do we or do we go to a world like that? I've had ideas for vibe coding projects that have been like, yeah. Sure. I'd love a personal assistant that read the entire Internet every day, but that seems like not on the table right now. But are we moving to a future where that's possible?
Speaker 4:Yes. So two things. I think one, we are. But second, like, I sometimes say, from a Databricks perspective, I wish I could walk in. You know, in, Men in Black where they have that button that causes people to
Speaker 1:forget. Sure. Sure.
Speaker 4:Yeah. I think that there is this vision of Databricks of, hey, it's really, really good if you have a bunch of data and
Speaker 2:But stuff like
Speaker 4:Yeah. But actually, like, a bunch of our users today, what's really valuable for your use cases, even if you say you wanna work for a spreadsheet, you're like, I don't keep that. Who keeps anything on their local laptop anymore? Right? It's like, I work in an organization.
Speaker 4:Yeah. I just want a place where I can access all the data, big or small, but it's governed, it's high quality. So actually, a lot of the people inside of Databricks use, I mean, called Genie. Right? Because you can be asked for it.
Speaker 4:It's mainly like, can I get a world where I can do exactly what you said? I can quickly by code what I need. Yeah. Small amounts of data, but it's governed. I can visualize it.
Speaker 4:I can iterate on it. So that's the first thing I put. I think what you start seeing is every everything that you start with for, like, any project, it starts small. Great. I want my data to then your next thing is, oh, but it would be really cool if I could merge it with this.
Speaker 4:And it would be really cool if it could do so as you get it to work, it naturally balloons into something that both leverages more data, is much more computational, and much more comprehensive. Mhmm. So you very quickly end up in a world where you've outstripped the can I just do it on my laptop even for the average user?
Speaker 1:Yeah. We were were talking to Sam Allman yesterday. We were about different bottlenecks, and he was saying that data was a bottleneck for a while, at least like a rumored, perceived bottleneck. It really hasn't seemed to bottleneck progress in any meaningful way. But I'm wondering if you see if you look at the growth of the data market or data is the new oil, just is there a boom in the scale or importance of data with the NeoLab boom?
Speaker 1:There's more and more companies that are training different models. It feels like there's both more data being collected than ever, but then also more data being generated than ever. Can you just talk about zooming out? Like, what is the growth of just data look like in The U. S.
Speaker 1:Economy these days?
Speaker 4:Look, I think the the growth of data is significant. Right? I mean, there's no question about that. And, look, you said data is the new oil. I think, one, you've gotta define you gotta separate out the world of the consumer world, which I think about where many many of where many people's familiarity with AI is.
Speaker 4:Right? I wanna ask a question. Help me understand, you know, is this a cold or an allergy or plan my travel vacation? And that's the I need the whole corpus of the web. And that people that amount of data is kind of finite, if I if that makes sense.
Speaker 4:And new one people are generating new ones through AI, but that's one. Mhmm. I think that there's a separate question of why you said most people focus on data. In the enterprise world, it usually goes the following. I need AI.
Speaker 4:I have to pick a model. Let me pick which model. Is it Opus 4.6? Is it the new basically GPT model? Is it Gemini?
Speaker 4:Etcetera. Great. I started. Crap. I now have to figure out how to deploy this, and that's a lot about security, evaluations, governance.
Speaker 4:Great. Now I did this and my accuracy is 60%. 60% is kind of crappy accuracy. How do I get to a 100%? Yeah.
Speaker 4:The answer is, you need to have much better data. So almost everything comes back to, you know, and especially in enterprise, lots of data spread out in a bunch of places.
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 4:How do you actually get it together, know what you have, make sure it's high quality and relevant and recent? Because that's the other thing that's happening. Data that you have from six months ago may no longer be valid right now. So how do you make tell the system what's valid, what's recent? That's where we spend a lot of time on, and I think enterprises spend a lot of time on figuring out, like, how do we actually make these agents work?
Speaker 4:And it's a different problem than it is for, like, general, consumer search.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:What is, what's your software buying framework these days? What
Speaker 1:do you What do mean?
Speaker 2:Like, what do you decide like, what when when you're evaluating, hey. We there's a job to be done, or should we Yeah. Should we go and find a vendor that can do this? Should we do it ourselves? How do you what what's what's your line?
Speaker 4:Yeah. Look. I know that the cool thing is to say this following. It's like, guys, why would we buy software anymore? Like, you can just vibe code everything.
Speaker 4:I think anybody who says that generally is not in the business of actually using software in production for most like, it's like build is easy. Maintaining and sustaining it is hard. I think the short answer is in a world, if I can, I much rather buy
Speaker 1:than build?
Speaker 4:Right? Like, that's just the reality of it. The the problem though is you need you have such unique needs right now, and so if I look at it and see that the gap between what I can get off the shelf Mhmm. And what I need is really huge, then I have to look at, do I really wanna depend on another vendor, for kinda being able to like, how business critical is it for me? So as an example, much of the things that we're doing to overhaul field engineering at Databricks to say, how do we use AI to accelerate it?
Speaker 4:There's nothing off the shelf that gives us what we need there. Right? If there's a piece, I'll use it as a component, but we have to go build it. Because for me, it's like, I'm iterating really, really fast to figure out what the job to be done is how to deliver it, so we have our own development team. But on other things like my CRM or something like that, that is not something that if I can help it, I'm looking to build internally.
Speaker 4:Like, I'm happy to use something externally. Given that I imagine my needs are similar to many other ones, and there should be things that could meet that needs pretty quickly.
Speaker 1:Yeah. How big is AI agent adoption broadly? I I I wanna know the details of the high level of the twenty twenty six state of AI agents. And specifically, like, how much of this is, like, yes, they check the box. We're using agents, but it's just a test or it's very narrow or it's the one vibe coding intern that built some fun workflow that's like, yeah, it's a bot.
Speaker 1:It replies it's it's it's agentic, but it's not the core business. Talk to me about the rollout and adoption of AI agents in real enterprises, real businesses.
Speaker 4:Yeah. And I know I'm supposed to give, like, a party line in the popular thing, but look, I think you can look that that report that you cited talks about something like 95% people still have a hard time getting it in production or at least getting value out of it the way that they wanted. I I think you have still an element of people who are, like, beating their chest. You go to like, I have a thousand agents out, and I'm like, okay. How much how many people use them?
Speaker 4:And they're like, why does that matter? I was like, why does anything else matter? Right? Yeah.
Speaker 2:Same thing as like bragging, you know, CEO bragging about head count. And it's like, wait, what's your revenue per employee? They're like, $30. They're like, okay. Maybe maybe you're focusing on the wrong thing.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 4:Well, look. I I look. So I think that there is everybody we talk to is trying to and there's some statistics you saw in there that makes sense. Like, most people are no longer doing like, hey. Let me get a chatbot.
Speaker 4:It's like multi agent orchestration. Right? Like, they're using multiple things. Second, nobody is wedded to models anymore. I think, like, 77% of our customers use multiple models as well to pull it together.
Speaker 4:And I think that the most popular use cases, you know, beyond internal use case, something called, like, market intelligence. So, like, how do I figure out what my customers are doing? What's the next best action I should take? And they're like. I do think it's still early.
Speaker 4:Like, most people like, it's rare to see somebody say, I have a lot of agents in production really effectively. As I mentioned, the most the place where we spend a lot of time on is how do you govern it and get security? How do you get really, really high quality out of it? How do you balance cost and quality? And that's where, like, our whole offering around AgentBricks is mainly around how do you actually get this thing in production?
Speaker 4:And so early days, we're seeing we're seeing at least people turn from, I spun up a ChatGPT interface. I have AI to, like, what's the ROI I can drive from it and realizing what are the blocking factors? Data or some of the things I talked about to get there?
Speaker 2:Given given your experience at McKinsey, there's been some news recently that Anthropix working with, I believe, Accenture, OpenAI is hiring consultants internally. Obviously, the big consulting firms wanna get in on the action. They've been doing a good job making money on generative AI, maybe making more profit than a lot of companies. But when you when you think about swarms of consultants going out into the world to unlock the power of agents, like, what are you gonna be looking for to see success there success?
Speaker 4:Okay. One, I think we've gone through these iterations before. And in general, one, I I'm hard pressed to believe that every enterprise is gonna all of a sudden have an army of their own really, really effective vibe coders, right, that are gonna build everything themselves. I think that there's still gonna be the dependence on external parties to help make something real. Mhmm.
Speaker 4:I do think that there is a element that the SI firms right now are trying to figure out how do they reinvent themselves. A nontrivial number of what it was before was how do I do some more let let's say a little bit more of a commoditized task where I
Speaker 1:is software integrated?
Speaker 4:Oh, sorry. System integrated. Sorry. Like, when you think about the Accenture, the TCS, the Cognizant, and stuff. Sure.
Speaker 4:You know, so it's like, how do I throw a lot of people to do it? Mhmm. I think the expectation from people now is going to be great. I'm gonna hire you. But in the element of AI, I expect you to be able to do things faster, and I also expect to be able to get out of more out of each of the individuals.
Speaker 4:So one, go build applications for me. Two, do it faster. And three, you know, your cost your economics should be better. So I think that there's gonna be a push on doing things like that. But otherwise, we're still gonna need worlds of folks.
Speaker 4:They're also trying to figure out how do they expand their, like, teams with, like, many, many more agents that can work faster. So it's more of a shift in the model and economics, but you will still need consulting organizations to help.
Speaker 1:Well, thank you so much for taking the time. Jordy, do you have anything else? No.
Speaker 2:Great to meet you. Come back come back on more this year. The Really helpful. It's yeah. You guys have such insane visibility into how Yeah.
Speaker 2:Into the real diffusion. So It's awesome.
Speaker 4:It's Well, we can just wait a week.
Speaker 2:We can wait till they
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Then another 50.
Speaker 5:It's gonna change in a week. Parts.
Speaker 2:Watershed watershed moment. Every hour. Every hour of every day.
Speaker 1:We'll we'll we'll chat with you about it. Have a great rest
Speaker 2:of your Great to meet you. Thanks for coming on.
Speaker 1:We'll talk to you soon. Let me tell you about Labelbox, RL environments, voice, robotics, evals, and expert human data. Labelbox is the data factory behind the world's leading AI teams. We got a bunch of breaking news to show out with.
Speaker 2:Breaking news. OBIT inspired startup becomes first new bank. Green light is OBIT inspired. One of the most insane headlines. That one is for Trevor Palmer and the whole team.
Speaker 1:Erebor founder Palmer Lucky was one of the tech industry's early Trump supporters, and he's known for pension for Hawaiian shirts. They're really focusing on Palmer's, like, nonbanking relationships here.
Speaker 2:Palmer is a banker now, everyone.
Speaker 1:Erebor will will cater to startups and high net worth individuals on Friday. It became the first newly created bank to receive a national charter under the second Trump administration launching with $635,000,000 in capital. It says it will occupy a hole in the market left by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The bank is the brainchild of Palmer Lucky, one of the tech, industry's early supporters of Donald Trump. Its founders include its funders include Lux Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, eight VC.
Speaker 1:Elad Gill and Founders Fund has lined up a handful of potential defense and industrial tech focused clients, including ones with ties to Thiel and other investors who say they are eager to do business with a bank that understands their needs.
Speaker 2:You can think of us like a farmer's bank for tech, said Lucky, who will serve on Airborne's board but will not have an operating role. I think most farmer's banks won't claim they are the best bankers in the world, but they do understand farmers.
Speaker 1:Chris Powers in here. He said, is a low is a local bank going to lend against you? No. He said, if if you have less than $10,000,000 in revenue and you're struggling to secure a loan from a traditional bank, investor expectations are high. Airborne was valued at about $2,000,000,000 in a funding round last year, over seven times its book value according to investor pitch deck.
Speaker 1:A subsequent round valued Airborne at 4,000,000,000. So off to the races.
Speaker 2:The timeline, the pace from the team getting this done, obviously, there's, you know, the regulatory side, but there's actually the execution to get here. I remember talking to Trevor last year, Trevor over at Airborne. Yeah. And he was telling me the timeline and I was like, yeah, that's sounds great. Like, let's see let's see how it actually turns out and that that, you know, incredible pace.
Speaker 1:Yeah. We'll have to have
Speaker 2:more about it. Real bank.
Speaker 1:We have another we have another Gong hit for Jennifer Garner's Once Upon a Farm.
Speaker 2:They're out.
Speaker 1:I POed today. Shares popped 17% in public market debut. It's on the New York Stock Exchange, baby.
Speaker 2:There we go. Interesting. Wonder how they priced it.
Speaker 1:Yes. So they raised almost $200,000,000, 197.9 at a valuation of $724,000,000. And the company's IPO comes as shoppers and policymakers alike have pushed back on ultra processed foods, particularly when consumed by children. So it's on the New York Stock Exchange now under the ticker OFRM. Cavu Venture Partners Consumer Partners.
Speaker 1:Cavu Consumer Partners was a big backer of this company and probably has done quite well in this IPO. And also, Technochief had a little bit of an update here, super random, but Cavu Consumer Partners just raised a new $325,000,000 fund for better
Speaker 2:Good timing. Hit it again.
Speaker 1:Alex. So congratulations. Rohan Oza over there. He's been investing in the category, worked in vitaminwater. He's an absolute dog and an industry legend, and we're happy to see success in this industry.
Speaker 1:Certainly AI resistant. It feels like something, Tyler won't get out of bed for. He's he's knocking it, but, you certainly opportunity.
Speaker 2:No. I mean in a post scarcity world, every every child in the world could be enjoying once more
Speaker 1:of a fun day at the New York Stock Exchange for everyone.
Speaker 2:Do we have anything else?
Speaker 1:Not not too much. There's a bunch of stuff. I think we went through most of this stuff. There's there's new data from Ramp. R.
Speaker 1:Carrazzi and shares the fastest growing companies on Ramp. AI infrastructure means open source is likely ticking up. AI dev tools are not going away. And AEO is the future of marketing. He calls that try profound.
Speaker 1:So Ramp's top software vendors, the fastest growing. We're Anthropic, lovable, Cursor, eleven Labs, super base, Replit. Interesting. Cursor has been seeing like some there's a bunch of FUD on the timeline. People are saying, I don't need it anymore, but it's still growing according to Ramp.
Speaker 1:A little bit of a narrative violation there. And then trending breakout growth relative to size, Paper for software design, Cerebras for AI infrastructure, Juicebox for recruiting AI, Runware for AI infrastructure, Clarify for AI infrastructure, Nova to I AI for AI infrastructure, Crusoe for AI infrastructure, Modal for AI infrastructure, and then Peak AI for SEO and AEO intelligence and also ProFound. So this is from the Ramp Economics Lab. Ramp.com/data. You can go check it out for yourself.
Speaker 1:We love chat chatting with Ara about. What are
Speaker 2:seeing? Well, it was a brutal week for tech. It was. But at least we had an opportunity to put on the white suits.
Speaker 1:Yes.
Speaker 2:And I can't wait for Sunday Yeah. To see the ads.
Speaker 1:Yes. It's gonna be a great one. The Super Bowls on Sunday.
Speaker 2:John and I will be there
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:With with with Ramp and some other friends. And we will be glued to our phones Yes. In the back of the of the of the box just just watching the ads. For sure. We hope you guys Plant bomb.
Speaker 1:In other news, after twelve years at The Wall Street Journal, Joanna Stern is launching her own consumer tech media company. Congratulations to Joanna Stern. She hasn't shared exactly what it is yet, but there is a link. You can go sign up. This is mynextthing.com.
Speaker 1:Good name. I like it. She has been writing for The Wall Street Journal for quite a long time. I've always enjoyed her consumer tech coverage, and, of course, we'll have her on the show when she launches. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcast and Spotify.
Speaker 1:Sign up for our newsletter, .com.
Speaker 2:We love you.
Speaker 1:Goodbye. Nice
Speaker 2:work, brothers. I'll see you on the next one.