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Habit systems, airline networks and 17th-century warships all fail the same way: not from a catastrophic shock, but under the weight of too many reasonable additions.
Habit systems, airline networks and 17th-century warships all fail the same way: not from a catastrophic shock, but under the weight of too many reasonable additions.
Featuring: Hyman Minsky, Courtland Allen, Michael Santoro, Lyn Montgomery, Klas Fleming, Joseph Tainter
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Chapters:
(00:00) Stability is destabilizing
(00:04) Fifteen years of habit lists that grew until they broke
(00:27) Southwest Airlines loses track of its crews, Christmas 2022
(01:12) The Vasa sinks 1,300 meters from the yard that built her
(01:59) Joseph Tainter on why complex societies end
(02:12) Too many reasonable additions
Where to find Dru:
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One mental model each day in a few minutes. Habits, business, building products and thinking clearly. From Dru Riley, founder of Trends.vc.
"Stability is destabilizing."
Hyman Minsky
I've tracked my habits for 15 years. When I hit them consistently for a stretch, I add more on the strength of that momentum.
Each time the list grew too long, the routine fell apart and habits went uncompleted.
During my mini-retirement I was biking around Atlanta listening to the Indie Hackers podcast. I heard Courtland Allen describe how his habit tracking kept collapsing.
Capping the list stopped the collapses for me.
Over Christmas 2022, Southwest Airlines lost track of where its pilots and flight attendants were. Michael Santoro, vice president of the pilots' union, told CBS News the airline saw a meltdown once or twice a year. The scheduling software couldn't keep up with changes across the network.
Crews sat waiting to be told where to go. Lyn Montgomery, leader of the flight attendants' union, said hold times ran anywhere from three to 17 hours.
Southwest cancelled 16,900 flights over the holiday and went back to matching crews to planes by hand. In December 2023 the Department of Transportation fined it $140 million.
I've never run an airline.
I've run a list of habits past what it could carry.
Sweden started building the Vasa in 1626. On top went a deck structure built heavier than the guns called for, 64 cannons, 120 tonnes of ballast and close to 500 sculptures across the stern.
Before she sailed, 30 men ran back and forth across her upper deck to see how she rolled. Vice Admiral Klas Fleming stopped them after three passes, worried she would go over at the quay. She sailed anyway.
On 10 August 1628 the Vasa traveled 1,300 meters, caught a gust and went down in sight of the yard that built her.
Somewhere between 30 and 50 people drowned that afternoon.
No single cannon capsized her. The additions simply ran out of hull to carry them.
I've added habits until the day had no room left.
Joseph Tainter's answer for why complex societies end is that they accumulate their way there. Each layer a society adds to solve a problem returns less than the layer before it, while costing the same or more to keep running.
Systems rarely collapse from a catastrophic failure. They collapse under the weight of too many reasonable additions.
What protective limit could you set while things are calm?