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Buckle up, history buffs and democracy defenders. We're sitting down with Ruth Ben-Ghiat, professor of history and Italian studies at New York University, author of Strongman, and one of the leading experts on authoritarianism, to connect the dots between today's political chaos and the playbooks of history's most dangerous leaders. The parallels are less "ancient history" and more "this week's headlines," and Ruth is here to decode every one of them.
Heidi and Joel also unpack the shifting electoral map, with a look at Senate battlegrounds, emerging gubernatorial contests, and what the current political climate means for voters heading into the next cycle.
In this episode:
- How today's administration mirrors the tactics of historic autocrats
- The anatomy of a cult of personality, and how they're built
- The "only I can do it" syndrome and why it resonates
- The TINA trap: why "There Is No Alternative" is so dangerous
- What the bunker mentality reveals about autocratic fear
- Religion, symbols, and grievance as tools of authoritarian power
- The warning signs of democratic erosion, and how fast it moves
- Why American resilience may be the one thing autocrats can't plan for
The playbook for autocracy isn't buried in history books; it's playing out in real time. Tune in, get informed, and maybe think twice before you call this just another political phase.
The Hot Dish is brought to you by the One Country Project. To learn more, visit OneCountryProject.org, or find us on Substack (Onecountryproject.substack.com), and on YouTube, Bluesky, and Facebook (@onecountryproject).
- (00:00) - Introduction to Ruth Ben-Ghiat's expertise on authoritarianism
- (00:01) - The unique and dangerous nature of today’s political threats
- (00:13) - The risks of loyalists and whether they can escape the grip of the cult
- (00:19) - The cult of personality, authoritarian playbook, and Trump’s messaging
- (00:23) - How Trump’s demagoguery compares to Mussolini and fascist archetypes
- (00:24) - The lasting legacy—how Trump’s era might be remembered forever
- (00:26) - The trajectory toward an ethno-state and the exploitation of wealth
- (00:28) - The challenge of former loyalists re-entering politics amid autocratic influence
- (00:35) - The impact of social progress and backlash, race, gender, and democracy
- (00:38) - The fears and vulnerabilities of autocrats like Trump—hidden bunker fears
- (00:39) - The uncharted and disturbing destruction of public health and welfare
- (00:42) - The changing landscape of election rules and the future of democracy
- (00:46) - The rapid speed of autocratic consolidation—Hungary, Russia, and beyond
- (00:46) - How policies are weaponized to transfer wealth and create division
- (00:46) - How autocrats boast confidence but tremble behind the scenes
- (00:52) - The costly mistake of intervening in foreign conflicts
- (00:57) - The autocratic “no alternative” syndrome and potential successors
Creators and Guests
Host
Heidi Heitkamp
U.S. Senator Heidi Heitkamp served as the first female senator elected from North Dakota from 2013 – 2019. he is the founder and Chair of the One Country Project, an organization focused on addressing the needs and concerns of rural America. Heidi was recently named the Director of the Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago, a university she has long been committed to and a place where she enjoys engaging with students over civic discussions while encouraging them to seek opportunities in public service to our country. Heidi also serves as a contributor to both CNBC and ABC News.
Host
LA
Producer
Laura Anderson
What is The Hot Dish?
Former U.S. Senator Heidi Heitkamp and her brother, KFGO radio talk show host Joel Heitkamp, engage in animated discussions with newsmakers, elected leaders, and policymakers who are creating new opportunities for rural Americans and finding practical solutions to their challenges. Punctuated with entertaining conversations and a healthy dose of sibling rivalry, The Hot Dish, from the One Country Project, is informative, enlightening, and downright fun.
Heidi (00:05)
Welcome back to the hot dish comfort food for rural America. I'm Heidi Heikamp.
Joel (00:10)
And I'm Joel Hyke.
Heidi (00:12)
Joel, I hear that history doesn't repeat itself exactly, but I have to say we're seeing some patterns that feel mighty familiar, and our guest today has spent an impressive career studying some of those patterns. We're so happy to be joined today by Ruth Ben Guiat. She's a historian, political commentator, and a New York Times best-selling author whose work focuses
On authoritarianism, propaganda, and protecting democracy. And man, do we need to talk to her now?
Heidi (00:43)
you so much for joining us. I think this is this is a topic we don't talk enough about, and I know a lot of people think.
It's just people being alarmist. This is just not what people think that everybody's over overwriting this. They're exaggerating this. What do you tell people when they ask you that or when they say, come on, it it's not that bad.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (01:05)
I understand why people ⁓ may have an impulse to minimize because they can depends what kind of ⁓ information they're getting, ⁓ which gives them the picture of what is being done. If they're if they're getting information that tells them that that the current administration is doing good work, then they see no cause for alarm at all. ⁓
But I would ⁓ point people to the fact that ⁓ we have ⁓ a different kind, qualitatively different administration now than we've ever had before in the history of America. ⁓ we've never had someone who ⁓ refused tried to refuse to leave office, tried to overturn an election, and incited ⁓ a violent mob on January 6th to attack ⁓
Joel (01:32)
administration now than we've ever had before in the history of America.
We've never had someone who ⁓ refused, ⁓ tried to refuse to leave office, tried to overturn an election, and incited ⁓ a violent mob on January 6th to attack ⁓ capital police officers and now is painting that as patriotic. That's never happened. And we've never had
⁓ a head of state who is ⁓ making money ⁓ and his sons and family
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (02:01)
capital police officers and now is painting that as as patriotic. That's never happened. And
we've never had a head of state who is ⁓ making money and his sons and family are making money off of the government because they don't respect the idea of public versus private or conflicts of interest. So there are many things that have never been done before.
⁓ to this ⁓ degree and because people can say, all politicians are corrupt, but using your office to make money and not caring about the people who elected you ⁓ is is something quite different.
Heidi (02:45)
Well, I I wanna just point out that, you know, when I started out in politics some, you know, almost forty years ago, ⁓ there were things that you couldn't do. And and Donald Trump has broken through those norms over and over and over.
Joel (02:48)
Trump has broken through those norms over and over and over. So, can you explain to me?
Heidi (03:02)
what allows this to happen? Because that this is not norm for this country. In fact, so many of the things that this president has done would have been fatal for any other politician, even today, I think. But yet he seems to get by with it. Can you explain that to me, Ruth?
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (03:23)
So Trump is ⁓ I consider him to be one of the most skilled propagandists ⁓ in in our history. And he he he posed from the beginning as a kind of charismatic demagogue, ⁓ somebody who would break the rules on behalf of the people. And this was his persona from from the very start. And ⁓ personally the reason that I started ⁓
writing for CNN back in twenty sixteen and covering Trump was because in January twenty sixteen he was starting his campaign and he announced I could stand on Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and I won't lose any followers. And I, who had been studying fascism for years, I said, my God, he's associating himself with violence, saying he could shoot someone and saying that people would like him because of that.
This is somebody who's very dangerous. We have to pay attention to this. And it interestingly and tragically, it was just weeks after that statement, which should have disqualified him. And in in autocratic studies, that's called gatekeeping. When a when a society sees somebody dangerous who talks about violence, instead of letting them run for office, they they they don't back them.
Instead, the GOP right after this, Jeff Sessions came to a rally and put on the MAGA hat, and the beginning this was the beginning of the party rotating around him. And and so and he's not the first to do this. ⁓ Mussolini did this, and and I'm not saying that Trump is a fascist, things are very different in the twenty-first century, but there have been many ⁓ demagogues who come
They come up at a time when there's a lot of dissatisfaction with established politics, when people think that traditional ways of doing things and traditional parties are not working for them anymore. And what these people do, and and many of them actually have a background in journalism or in TV or just mass communications, and they read the marketplace and they see where they can make an effect, and then they
Almost fashion themselves to meet what what the needs of the people. And so Trump started saying to white ⁓ working class people, you have been forgotten, but you're forgotten no longer. I will take care of you. I love you. And this was like electrifying to people. And and so he he really did use a playbook that has been used at times of transition before.
And this bonded people to him early on, and many of those people are still with him today.
Joel (06:15)
You know, Ruth, you talk about ⁓ you know, Jeff Sessions and how ridiculous it was what he said about Fifth Avenue. You know, did this start before all of that? I I wanna make sure I understand the timing of it all. I mean, did this start because America elected a a black president?
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (06:35)
So my research shows, and it's it was fascinating writing Strongman, which goes over a hundred years, to see these patterns. It shows that when societies have had a lot of progress, it could be ⁓ working class rights, it could be ⁓ racial emancipation, gender equity, like a lot of social change, social progress. That makes other people feel they're losing something.
And they get very disaffected and full of grievance. And that is when these demagogues come on the scene and and say that I will be your voice. And so when you look back, America was perfectly suited to have a Trump ⁓ come on the scene because we had eight years of the first African American president, and many people never accepted the idea that a black man could be president. We had integration of
gender equity in the armed forces, a commitment to to making even special forces women were going to come in. We had the legalization of same sex marriage. And so we had trends that we were perfecting the idea of being a multiracial democracy, multiracial, multi faith democracy, one of the only true examples of this in the world. And this didn't set
sit well with many people and so what we're living through now is the backlash.
Heidi (08:06)
When you when you think about ⁓ all of the things that you outlined, whether it is same-sex marriage, whether it is taking a look at women and and minorities in the military, I've often wondered why this administration in this second term is just just keep stepping into that arena and pushing those agendas. What you're suggesting is that is how they keep faith with the base, is to continue to
Fan those flames, continue to say, see, these things are the wrong direction for this country and we're gonna fix that. ⁓ so how do we spiral out of this? How do we, how do we actually have a conversation that that, you know, I always use my dad's words when people want to, you know, criticize someone else, he just always says, How are they hurting you? I mean, you know, none of this hurts me. but
But yet people feel really personal personally against this. And every time the administration does something like, you know, not promote women ⁓ and the Pentagon or basically dismiss people of color and women as leaders in the Pentagon, there is very little backlash.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (09:26)
Yeah, so the trajectory of what they're doing is increasingly clear. It's really in the last month that it's come together for me that the ultimate aim of of people like Stephen Miller and Pete Hegsteath and Trump himself is to really convert our multiracial democracy into a kind of white Christian male dominated ethno state. ⁓ so we have the only immigrants allowed in now are white.
People, including white South Africans. That's to please Elon Musk. We know very well what's happening to ⁓ immigrants with ICE, which and so that that is a trajectory. But you're right that people can say, well, it's not affecting me. But that's only half the story. ⁓ the the really ⁓ unusual thing, tragically, that's going on is you know, in in classic
⁓ in earlier examples of this kind of ⁓ racial politics like fascism, there was people were divided into the good people and the people to be ⁓ you know killed or imprisoned. But the good people, let's just take the Nazi case, the Aryans, they had more social welfare. They had more health insurance and all the goodies of the state to help them, to help them have more babies. But here,
What is going on, which is going to increasingly affect all of us, is that Trump and his oligarch friends and the techno billionaires are making huge amounts of money. And they're not really interested, ⁓ Trump and company, in governing. They're not interested in public welfare. And that is why they've been cutting ⁓ public health, they've been cutting ⁓ medical research, even for k kids with cancer.
they've been, you know, trying to scale back benefits. My mother actually, when when Doge, Elon Musk's Doge, was looking for fraud and Social Security, my 94-year-old mother ⁓ lost her social security benefits for four months and because she was accused of ⁓ fraud and she has dementia. She couldn't be defrauding anyone, even if she wanted to. And so it took ⁓ months for us to get it back. And this happened to many people.
So this is not an administration that is ⁓ that is doing what past administrations did. This is an administration that's really ⁓ having a vast transfer of wealth to themselves so that they're making Trump has made billions of dollars since he's been president, and people are becoming impoverished through tariffs, higher gas prices, and unfortunately for us.
This is going to continue, and people are going to feel the pain in ways they haven't. And thus will start to wake up that this administration does not in fact care about them, does not, in fact, love them. ⁓ And it's not America making America great again, it's actually exploiting America, including our tax dollars, which are being, you know, trying to be repurposed for things that benefit Trump. And so I believe that.
there will be a shift of opinion. It's already starting, but it will accelerate.
Joel (12:47)
I I was reading your work and you know the blueprint that you laid out for something like this to happen and I kept nodding my head up and down because I think you're spot on right. That being said, ⁓ did it did a bit of good fortune ⁓ in regards to what white males and ⁓ you know, white female that listen to white males in many ki ⁓ cases d did it did the good fortune of having, you know, a black president, a woman run against him.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (12:48)
No.
Joel (13:16)
⁓ he runs against a white male and the white male beats him ⁓ and then you've got a black female. It all of which play into the type of mentality that the individuals you described have. I mean, did the stars just align for this guy?
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (13:33)
No, it's it's one of these it's there are these junctures in history and we were at one in ⁓ twenty sixteen and so he came in in the first place and then he was voted out by, as you say, a white man. and but they used their time very, very well, ⁓ because Biden may have been a white man, but he was all in for multi
Racial multi-faith democracy. And he was a very strong democracy protector. Because many of these people, including all the Project 2025 people who were like a shadow government during the Biden years, they don't want America to be a democracy anymore. They talk about revolution. And Trump's slush fund was called the 1.776 billion slush fund because it's 1776 continuing the revolution.
And and Heritage Foundation is ⁓ you know, the head of its Kevin Roberts wrote a book about the revolution. And so the revolution they want is to take us back, to to wind back the clock in terms of being a multiracial society. And that's why we see as you pointed out in the Pentagon, they're they're not going to promote black and female people anymore. The the optics are very important to them. This is an administration that has over two dozen.
people in high office who had on air roles at Fox News, including Hegseth, including Pam Bondi when you know she was there. And so they know the optics and the optics have to be ⁓ mostly white males who are in charge. And so that means that there's a marginalization going on of many, many competent people. So so that's that it's a process which has happened before in in history and we're living through it now.
Heidi (15:28)
It's interesting you mentioned ⁓ when you think about those ⁓ cabinet level officials who have been asked to leave, they're all women. They aren't men, even though men have done something equally bad. I want to go back to your your analysis that this ends when, unlike unlike Germany, where you saw a lot of recipients of public benefits still continue to receive those public benefits, we know now that if you cut
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (15:37)
Yes.
Heidi (15:57)
you know, subsidies on the exchange, the Obamacare exchange, if you reduce Medicaid, if you reduce food stamps, that's gonna hit everybody equally and probably lower income people, ⁓ the folks that Donald Trump has has considered his base, perhaps at a percentage even higher. And I would argue that farmers
I mean, you know, I watched the thing in in Wisconsin where farmers rallied for Trump and they just kept saying, We're going to give him more time, the whole while they're going broke because of his policies. So I I mean, I I kind of look at this and say, Is there really, is that really gonna happen where people eventually will look at their own economic condition and realize that this is an administration that's not really being helpful?
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (16:46)
Yes, it it takes time. I mean the one thing that is interesting about our current situation is the the speed of autocratic consolidation, the speed of ⁓ of developing corruption, it has far outstripped any other state where the autocrat came to power via elections. If you look at the first year and a half of
Put even Putin and Russia, Erdogan and Turkey, Orban, they didn't do things so fast. ⁓ so there's a speeded up reaction. And there's also a quite ⁓ a growing counter reaction. The numbers of people who are protesting, ⁓ we had eight million people at the last protest. And and Bernie Sanders is going on his ⁓ you know, he has this anti-oligarch tour.
And he's getting giant crowds in red states because he's talking about economic inequality and caring for people. And and we also know that ⁓ there's a lot of nonviolent protests going ⁓ on around the the world today against autocrats. And and one of the main reasons, and this was true in Hungary, where Viktor Orban was recently pushed out, is blatant corruption. And so people see their own lives getting worse because they're getting impoverished.
And that happened to Hungary. Hungary is like the poorest, one of the poorest states in the EU right now. Whereas the leader and his family and his officials' families, all the cronies, they become billionaires. And so it's like this two, you know, widening chasm of the haves and the have nots. And we're we're seeing this in our country and and it's still early. And so that is when that is why so many Hungarians, you know, voted him out. But
That was after sixteen years. We're on we're in the middle of year two. So it's a slow process, but ⁓ but because they're being they're taking away ⁓ public health, they're taking away vaccines, they're it's as though they're they're taking away child welfare, like ⁓ you know, hot meals for poor children. It's as though they were trying to somebody was going through and saying, How can we make the United States ⁓
have a failure to thrive. Let's take away, ⁓ you know, cutting edge medicine. Let's take away medical research and scientific research and vaccines. Let's ⁓ allow companies to let ⁓ to manufacture flavored vaping so more children and teenagers can vape. If you look around and you put all these things together, it's really disturbing and and it actually doesn't have a precedent in ⁓ any government I know of.
doing so many negative things for everyone.
Joel (19:44)
do do you think they're actually doing this with the blueprint that that you're pointing out that that they actually have seen historically, you know, what Mussolini, what Hitler, what others did. And so look, this is the game plan. I mean, this is what works. We're going to do it. We don't care if that's how we go down in history because we end up very, very wealthy men with power forever.
that can dictate, you know, who's on the bench and and who's serving in Congress. And because of all those things, we don't care. we're just going to do it. And and if you don't believe it works, you know, go to the plan that you're talking about, that the exact blueprint you're talking about.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (20:28)
Yeah, and I I understand it can seem almost conspiracy theorist to to say we they want to wreck the country, but I I can all I can tell you is that again, normally if you're in the the right racial and gender, et cetera, group, you you don't have your benefits cut. You have more goodies from the state.
And the other thing is that normally the the head of state and his family are not ⁓ accruing wealth at this rate. And and the other thing about Trump is that he's very honest in one way, right? He's he's institutionalized lying. But and And of course the big lie that he won the election, which is why he walked out on ⁓ Kristen Welker.
Heidi (21:10)
Yeah.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (21:21)
at Meet the Press recently, he he's not used to being confronted by the truth anymore. He's he's surrounded himself by sycophants and and people who say, yes, master, we'll tell you the truth. We'll tell you the truth. We won't tell you the truth rather. ⁓ we'll just tell you what you want to hear. So he was shocked ⁓ and he just walked out, right? ⁓ but Trump occasionally says things that he lets people know that he scorns them. And I have a list of these things and
One I will never forget. It was during the election, the campaign rather, and he was trying to get people to come out in Iowa to caucus for him. And it was freezing and dangerous for, let's say, elderly people to be out. So Trump said, he said, if you come out and you're ill and you pass away, as long as you vote for me, it'll be worth it. So
He said a number of things like that, ⁓ where he he lets people know that he doesn't really care about them. He just is using them. And I have a list of things that other like actual dictators often tell their people the same thing. And they do this because they want people to feel like nothing. They want you to feel small and insignificant and helpless and hopeless and that you could never ⁓
you can never successfully resist or get rid of the big dictator. And so they have personality cults and they put their face now we're gonna have his face on passports and maybe a two hundred and fifty dollar bill and his his tr his triumphal arch and and so the things he's doing to make himself seem big and all of us seem very small are also out of the autocratic playbook.
Heidi (23:13)
Well, he also I mean, I would argue that one of the reasons why he says that, and and you see it with farmers in particular, if you're a patriot, even though you're personally suffering, you should be with me because that's the patriotic thing to do. That I mean, he there is a level of, you know, we're we're willing to self sacrifice of course not him.
But he's asking people to sacrifice their health, sacrifice their wealth, sacrifice their farm in trust and reliance on him. And there's nothing that suggests that that's warranted, that that people are gonna get ⁓ a better government or something different if they do, but yet they blindly say things like this farmer in Wisconsin, we're gonna give him more time.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (23:46)
Mm.
Yes, you I'm so glad you said that. You've actually that's that's the crux of things. And this is this that farmer in Wisconsin, ⁓ I don't want to attribute you know, ⁓ things to to that person, but this is the kind of thing that ⁓ people who have been ⁓ s indoctrinated by charismatic demagogues and they've bought into the person, they've bought into the cult of his infallibility.
Mussolini had a slogan that said, Mussolini is always right. Well, guess what? Trump has a slogan, and it's on some of his hats. Trump is always right. And so, and then the The formula is that you get religious, this is very important actually, you get religious ⁓ authorities, trusted religious authorities, to say that you are in office by the will of God. And
Check the box. Trump has ⁓ Orthodox Jews, but especially evangelical Christians, Putin has the Russian Orthodox Church. They all have their people. The faith, actual faith, does which faith it is, doesn't matter. It's And so then people say, Well, if you know my pastor is saying that he's in office by the will of God, then I should give him more time. He knows what he's doing, he's the infallible guide, and he will make America great again.
And and so it it's understandable, but what's what's astonishing to me is that in real one real dictatorships, which we are not, where you had a one party state like, you know, Nazism, fascism, you know you know what it took to get people to realize that Mussolini and Hitler were not actually on their side? It took being bombed by the Allies. It took losing the war and feeling it at home. That's when people started
like ⁓ cursing, you know, these leaders in public and they no longer cared if the Gestapo heard them. So the fact that Trump has managed to build such a strong cult of personality in a in a democracy with the totally free media is astonishing. And that is why I say that he's he's one of the most successful propagandists. He He's a brilliant orator. He plays people very successfully and and
And we have never had that before, so people fell right into it, ⁓ un unfortunately for the country.
Joel (26:35)
You know, everyone talks about you know, who's going to challenge him and where Congress has gone. And, you know, the the Democratic Party certainly has been more than willing to, you know, to make that argument, right, to the level of two impeachments. But, you know, you you look at ⁓ the Republican Party and short of a exception or two a congressman in in Kentucky, for example, y you know, the the senators, the former colleagues of Heidi that are willing to take him on or to say anything.
negative, ⁓ you know, are are ones that don't have a future. You know, they're on their way out. And ⁓ you know, now the slush fund seems to be the only thing that has given them any backbone to kind of punch the bully in the nose. And bully isn't strong enough word. I hate using that word because the a a word ⁓ should be stronger than bully to describe him. But but I I think you see what I'm getting at, which is nobody on the Republican side.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (27:23)
Yeah.
Joel (27:34)
Takes him off.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (27:35)
No. I followed this ⁓ for many years because he Trump has successfully domesticated the the party so that it is behaving exactly like an authoritarian party does, where their own needs are put aside because only the leaders will should be respected. And look what's happening at cabinet meetings where they just go around and they praise him like it's North Korea.
Heidi (28:01)
Yeah.
Yeah.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (28:04)
⁓ now but in terms of the members of Congress in in 2019, when when they had the two impeachments, but the first time they they they they tried to impeach him, the Republicans who voted for impeachment had death threats for their family. And and and so and that was done to
put everybody else on notice. And then it happened again during the second impeachment. And it happened again to pe anybody who opposed him or tried to expose him from the Republican side who didn't ⁓ want to realize that this was no longer a bipartisan, ⁓ respecting party. This was an authoritarian party. And look what Mike Pence found that out on January sixth. we still don't talk about an this enough that
Mike Pence was the ultimate loyalist and the ultimate perfect white male Christian, you know, zealot, the perfect Republican. And yet he ⁓ you know was targeted for harm by ⁓ Trump and company because he wouldn't ⁓ refuse to certify the election and he wouldn't get into the ⁓ the car that the Secret Service had for him because he something bad was gonna happen to him.
And so loyalty is earned every day. And so unfortunately, ⁓ it all of this is a kind of ⁓ mentality that is p is similar to organized crime. ⁓ and autocracy is a form of organized crime. ⁓ and and when you get to a state like Russia, we have a kleptocracy where it's the state is just plundered by the government and they're like they act like thieves.
And so it's it's very dire. And so the Republican Party, they learned the hard way. And actually, as as a first generation American and a proud American, I think every day about the fact that this this is really ⁓ searing, that Republicans as well as Democrats were targeted on January 6th. They were calling their loved ones and they said, I'm not gonna see you again, because this mob was after them, after Republicans.
But then Republicans were required by Trump to forget their trauma, to bury it, and to actually praise their attackers as patriotic. And so if you go on the White House ⁓ page for January 6th today on the website, it it I had my students look at it. It it says that the the insurrectionists were the Democrats, and it has a huge picture of Nancy Pelosi. And so the whole thing has been reversed.
But these Republicans, so that's what broke the party January sixth, when they thought they were gonna die. And now they have to ⁓ praise their attackers. And I do think that that's a reason that it was just too much finally to have the slush fund that was going to pay their attackers money. ⁓ and I think that's why some of them finally woke up a little bit.
Heidi (31:22)
So let's turn the page. We've got the midterms coming up. It looks like this is going to be a pretty good year for Democrats, barring some kind of autocratic takeover of the elections. And Trump keeps trying to do that. But unfortunately or fortunately for us, these elections are run by states. A lot of state secretaries of state take their job pretty seriously, ⁓ and ⁓ guard their sovereignty over elections pretty strongly. So I I I
I'm one of those people who doesn't imagine that we're going to see a lot of election tampering, but we'll wait and see. But let's let's project on what happens after the midterms when he loses the House and potentially loses the Senate. What does Trump do as an autocrat? But more importantly, in 2028, is there anyone who can carry that movement? You've already described a highly skilled, you know, I mean, I you I it
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (31:59)
Mm-hmm.
Heidi (32:19)
It is, it's almost psychopathic how much he can lie and know he's lying and just, you know, kind of shrug his shoulders and say, That's my right to lie. It's my right to do what I'm doing. you know, is there anyone like that in the wings who can carry this movement?
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (32:38)
So ⁓ I'm actually quite optimistic for the long run for our country. I believe ⁓ one of my maxims is never underestimate the American people. ⁓ I do think that the midterms are gonna go, you know, devastatingly bad for Republicans for all the reasons we've been saying. And Trump is also in a weak position ⁓ because so many of his policies are just having bad outcomes. But
The other thing is you mentioned, so we're getting into the realm of successors. Here's a problem. ⁓ megalom megalomaniac, grandiose strongmen like Trump, they can't have successors because the whole personality cult is that only they are in office by the will of God. They are uniquely qualified, nobody can be them. And there's even an acronym for this in Autocrat studies called Tina. There is no alternative.
There is only Trump. So, of course, we do hear about J.D. Vance. Perhaps he'd be the successor. Well, he's so unlikable. He seems to put his foot in his mouth. He has exquisitely bad political timing. You know, he's going to come out and be ⁓ a a Catholic, and then he, you know, it keeps insulting the Pope. even like warning him like not to be, you know, saying certain things. So that's not going to go very well. ⁓ and
And whoever, and then there's Marco Rubio, people talk about, who is a man who has several jobs given him by Trump because he's been kind of broken by Trump. And he's he's smart, he's efficient, he's much more efficient than some of the other people there. But it's gonna be very difficult for Trump to let anybody to even contemplate ⁓ the idea that somebody else could be in that office. And and I see ⁓
You know how he's getting more grandiose with giant arches and you know what he's doing to the White House. I think that's in relation to the fact that he knows he's getting weaker and weaker, not only at the polls, but you know, cognitively, physically, he's in decline. And so he's in a state of fear. And this is many autocrats get like this. They get into the bunker stage, which I call it. They get very fearful.
as they feel themselves declining and so they want safety and they want to stay in office forever. ⁓ and that means it's a rough road for anybody else to come forth and be the successor, especially if they're much younger.
Joel (35:17)
That was actually my next question. does he or anyone like him ⁓ through history fear? I mean, d do they wake up in the morning and go, Man, what if this happens? ⁓ I can't control it. ⁓ or is this all about the Stephen Millers of the world saying you don't have to fear? We we've got this. And here's example after example after example of why you don't have to fear, because he seems to be one of the most confident.
leaders this country has ever had.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (35:49)
That's that's a facade, ⁓ and to to some extent, that all of these guys live in fear. He wouldn't be building this bunker ballroom if he were confident. He wouldn't be doing many of the things he's doing if he were confident. ⁓ in fact, the Washington Post did an investigation ⁓ just a f like a month ago or so, and so we have a war going. And they wanted to know what they went through his speeches to see what is he actually talking about.
most of the time. What's on his mind? And guess what it was? His ballroom bunker. And he keeps talking about how there's a military hospital underneath the ballroom and there's going to be enhanced security. And I know from my studies that when autocrats fall, ⁓ other autocrats get very they get into their bunkers. They get very fearsome, fearful. ⁓ we know that when the Supreme Leader of Iran was killed,
Putin just went missing. He went into his bunkers. He was terrified. ⁓ and so they watch what either other does, they watch the fates of each other. And ⁓ so Trump seems confident, but a confident person doesn't build a giant arch and want his name on everything. That's an insecure person. ⁓ and and they're all like that. It's extraordinary how similar
They are, despite the fact the outcomes of course are very different in old fashioned dictatorships to today. ⁓ I don't I don't call us a dictatorship or a fascist state. That wouldn't be incorrect. But the personalities of these leaders are quite similar. And so that's how I've been able to predict so many things that Trump would do.
Heidi (37:13)
Yeah.
so now we have all these what I would call syncophats, and that's like Joel's word on bullying, I don't think that's a big enough word for what we're seeing there. ⁓ how do they the I I've frequently thought anyone who was doing this, including ⁓ Marco, Rubio, they they don't have a future. That how do they then disassociate from this? What have you seen in history?
with former ⁓ you know loyalists for strong men ⁓ then trying to come back into the mainstream. Does is that possible? And how do we either prevent it or or ⁓ have a conversation about it?
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (38:13)
Such a good question. one of the big problems is that we are a ⁓ bipartisan country. We don't have a multi party system. And this is not a problem for Democrats. Well ⁓ but it is a problem for Republicans because what some s what sometimes happen if there's a true disaster, like, you know, in f fascist regimes and they've a war goes so badly, the party of course is abolished. When you return to democracy, the party is abolished. But
When the party stays, then in a multi-party system, there's plenty of new parties for the Rubios of the world to go to. And they could form a new party and say, ⁓ you know, and hope that people forget about their ⁓ enabling. ⁓ and it will all depend on how bad things get. ⁓ but I I don't know because the Republican Party is such an institution and third parties don't do very well.
So I don't really I don't have a clear sense of what that trajectory will be, ⁓ other than them ⁓ trying to explain away whatever disasters they've caused, ⁓ and throw Trump under the bus. ⁓ that's that's for certain.
Joel (39:29)
Well, you can find her work anywhere. ⁓ I mean you can. ⁓ Ruth, thank you so much. I mean, I'm talking about ⁓ political commentator for The Atlantic, the CNN, Washington Post, other publications, and of course you can find her in a classroom ⁓ and as an author. Thank you for joining us on the hot dish.
Heidi (39:29)
Well listen.
And thank you for just a stimulating conversation. And and ironically, I feel better after this.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (39:49)
Thank thank you.
Well, there's plenty
of reasons for long term optimism. And ⁓ I also have a substack newsletter called Lucid, as in thinking clearly, and that's where I'm doing a lot of my ⁓ writing about the this this mess we're in that we will get out of one day.
Heidi (40:13)
Okay. Thanks so much, Ruth, for your time.
Ruth Ben-Ghiat (40:15)
Thank you.
Heidi (40:19)
do you think I'm crazy to be optimistic having heard her talk?
Joel (40:23)
Yes. I mean that
I mean I I I agree with her on on some of what she said, but I I strongly disagree with her on some of what she said. You know, I go back to the word well, I go back to the word bully. ⁓ you know, we talked about, you know, you said, and it was a great question, what happens to these guys that followed him after this? How do they distance themselves? And
Heidi (40:34)
Like what?
Joel (40:48)
You know, what I found interesting about that question is the assumption that they need ⁓ to distance themselves from what Donald Trump did. It's a blueprint. I mean, it is. It's a blueprint and it's a blueprint that works. I go back to what ⁓ I asked her in relation to the races, you know, and I'm not talking about, you know, black versus white, you know, women versus man, that type of thing. But if you look at who ran against Donald Trump, the stars aligned for him.
⁓ they really did in relation to all that change that Ruth was talking about. And so, you know, for for these people to separate themselves from what happened, I guess I'd ask the question, Heidi, why would they?
Heidi (41:32)
No, I think I think Donald Trump is gonna be so wildly unpopular in in the next two years. And I don't think that that that we'll see in the midterms. Here's an indication, Joel, of how you should think about that. Who's gonna vote in the midterms? Because Donald Trump is gonna be out there saying, vote for me, vote for me, vote for me, meaning get out and vote Republican, right? You've got to vote for the people that I need. And I don't think those people are gonna come out. And they're not gonna come out because of what she said.
Which is they aren't feeling better about their own economic situation. They aren't they aren't feeling kind of that love that they thought they would feel. And and if you read, if you believe interviews that you read, a lot of those people are saying, I this is the first time I trusted a politician. I don't trust him anymore, but I don't trust anybody else. I'm not voting. And so I'm curious to see how the Republican turnout is in the midterms, and that's gonna tell you whether he's lost some of his juice.
And and then well the party turn on him. I mean, he's turned on people, loyal people, like Ben Bill Cassidy and John Cornyn. I mean, that is that's not that's by design too. You know, Bill Cassidy, they can all say, well, he voted for impeachment. But Donald Trump took on John Cornyn, who has been nothing short of completely loyal. And I think he did it.
Number one, because he's got somebody even worse who's running. But I think he did it to send a message, get in line, and I can control it. And you know, the that that the what and the media is at fault here too, because everybody's like, Donald Trump still got it. Well, he didn't get his preferred candidate in Iowa. And there wasn't a big, look, he's slipping ⁓ dialogue after that. And so, but politicians pay attention.
Joel (43:25)
Yeah, I'm I'm not trying to make the argument that more people are gonna dislike him. that that isn't my point. I think that that there are more people that don't trust him as much. Maybe every time they fill up with gas. ⁓ that being said, it it's all up to who the other option i is, you know, and what the rules are. I mean, you know, he's changing the rules and he's changing the rules daily. It's
You know, he gets too tired to play in the fourth quarter, he starts falling asleep in the meetings. Well, you know what? The game is only three quarters now. You know, we're we're we're just gonna change the rules. And and so to me, he's being allowed to do that. The court allows him to do that. If you go all the way to the the upper court, you know, the supreme court, they're going to allow him to do that. Look at what happened in in Virginia, for example, versus other states that were doing much the same.
⁓ we're gonna have districts where if you're black in America, I'm not sure you have an opportunity to serve in Congress anymore, or certainly in in certain areas. And so the rules are changing to the point where, you know, I don't think his successors are going to have as hard of a time if they're aligned with him as what they would have before. I hope you're right. I I desperately hope you're right. I think that that will be the saving of America.
Heidi (44:42)
Yeah.
Joel (44:48)
⁓ and you and Ruth and others were were saying that. It's just I'm waiting for guys who are playing or paying way more for fertilizer, way more for diesel. sitting there, it, you know, the Jimmy Carter w when he was in and you had the boycott and you had all of these things, the embargo, I mean, you're sitting there where wheat prices plummeted and you know what? Those guys never voted Democrat again. That looks what's look at what's happened with commodity prices in America. Look what's happened overall with costs in America.
They're hanging in there, Heidi. These are my neighbors. These are my friends, or they were my friends. And he's literally divided people to the point where some of these people aren't my friends anymore. ⁓ but they're hanging in there. ⁓ they haven't spun away yet. And so to believe that they're all just gonna come around and say, you know what? I'm not gonna vote for Marco Rubio because he was part of a a group that raised my diesel that raised my fertilizer prices that
put embargoes on so that markets went away for us and soybeans. They haven't done that yet. And there's no reason for them or if that's their mentality now, I just can't see them running away from the the whoever the future holds like that.
Heidi (45:58)
But the argument really is that Trump is a unique character and nobody can take his mantle and Trump's going to be undermining these guys for the same reason for the Tina reason. You know, I've only me, only, only I can do this. And so, you know, Trump's going to have a hard time exiting the stage. He's not going to exit the stage in 2028. He's going to be tweeting out what he thinks is wrong with candidates. And, you know, can and you can say, well, what if they pick his son?
He wouldn't even go to his son's wedding. My God. I mean he has no loyalty even to his son. Why would I know? He maybe will go to the third one. What hell, let's not count it out.
Joel (46:33)
He he went to the first one. Knock it off. I I mean
Yeah. But but but
but I mean here's the point. I mean y your husband's a physician, he knows better than I do. ⁓ I was ⁓ pre med for a week. So let let's just ⁓ understand this.
Heidi (46:49)
⁓ no, is
that the same is that before or after you were pre law?
Joel (46:55)
I was pre-law for two weeks, so back off
on that, you know. But I played baseball really well. But I mean, here's here's the point in all of that. ⁓ you know, you say that his power is going to, you know, hold in there. I'm not a physician, but what I'm seeing is a man that's really, really tired. And you don't have to be a physician to see a man whose health isn't anywhere near where it was before. I made the argument.
On my radio show. And I made this same argument about Joe Biden that 80-year-old men should not be president of the United States. I got in trouble with it from some of my listeners, ⁓ but you know, the 34-year-old men and women shouldn't be president of the United States according to us, according to our rules. Well, 80-year-old men aren't up to the job, and he's proving that. And I think Joe Biden to some level approved or proved that. And so
You know, when you say he's gonna maintain that power, he's not just gonna go away. I I think more than anything, he's going to go away and that void's gonna be filled. And so, you know, this is an orchestration by people that you know, that you've met, and this is an overall game plan, and whatever that game plan is that they're using, it's working. And we, ⁓ meaning, you know, the Democratic Party run away from that game plan every chance we get.
Heidi (48:05)
Mm-hmm.
Joel (48:19)
And we haven't learned a damn thing from it.
Heidi (48:22)
Well, I I think that when when if I'm writing history on this, the single biggest mistake he made was the war in Iran. number one, because it made him look like he was a puppet of another government, that that a lot of his supporters who are very anti Semitic, they are not pro Israel. And and that divided the MAGA movement. You see it with Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens and even to some degree Steve Bannon. Basically s I mean, I if If I have a prediction and I know Steve Bannon, not
Joel (48:30)
Mm-hmm.
Heidi (48:52)
Well, I've met him a couple of times and had had a beer with him. I I'm telling you he's shaking his Yeah, well but but but he's shaking his head saying that was a fatal mistake because it led to more economic harm and it basically weakened the presidency. And that's why and and I think he talks about his ballroom because like everybody else, the older we get
Joel (48:56)
Well he asked you to be in his cabinet. Let's just be honest about that.
Heidi (49:16)
We're uncomfortable. We don't want to mix it up on the war. We don't want to mix it up on, what's happening with the economy. I'm going to talk about what I really know, which is building stuff. And that's what he talks about. And I hadn't thought about the bunker the way she talked about the bunker, but I thought that was fascinating. ⁓ this this idea that you build yourself a bunker so you can hunker in. ⁓ all the more reason to deny the billion dollars for the ballroom, I guess, because we're building him a I I'm staying in office forever.
Joel (49:42)
Well, you know, I guess it
Heidi (49:46)
plan.
Joel (49:46)
I
I guess it goes towards, you know, he wants these monuments, he wants to be remembered. He's you probably ticked that Ronald Reagan got the airport before he did. But, you know, very similar to somebody buying a great big rock and carving their name in it above their driveway, which by the way I did. But I mean the the point being this. ⁓ you know, my daughter's generation, she pointed out something to me and you know it made me feel sad for her.
which is a big part of her adult life is going to be defined and remembered as an era of Donald Trump. And that's still going to be there. And it's always going to be there. And so when you say optimistic, there's a reason I'm, you know, at times I shake my head.
Heidi (50:24)
Yeah. Well
Well, Joel, we're gonna live long enough, hopefully, God willing, to see the end of this and see a lot of people hopefully you know, I just want people to say, Whoops, I shouldn't have jumped off the cliff with them, but maybe that's never gonna happen.
Joel (50:46)
Well, I'll I'll go back to my medical
degree. You know, I'm quite a bit younger than you and I may live through this. I hope you do, Heidi.
Heidi (50:54)
Well, listen, ⁓ we are thrilled to be back with you here on the hot dish brought to you by One Country Project.
Joel (51:02)
You know, you can learn more about us at one countryproject dot org and be sure ⁓ to follow us on Substack and YouTube and Facebook and Blue Sky.
Heidi (51:13)
We'll be back next week with more hot dish, comfort food for rural America.