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THE 966 explores the news, people, and issues that define the Kingdom through conversations and interviews with business leaders, officials, and newsmakers. THE 966 goes beyond the headlines and tackles the complex U.S.-Saudi relationship, discussing topics like oil and energy, security and defense, Saudi culture and society, and much more.
The 966, Episode #132, The Impacts of the Gaza War with Stefanie Ali, Senior Director, Rice, Hadley, Gates & Manuel LLC
Richard Wilson (00:00.691)
Welcome to The 966 Episode number 132. My special guest today is Stefanie Ali, a friend of mine for many years. Stefanie, so glad you could be with us. Stefanie is senior director at International Affairs Consulting firm Rice Hadley Gates and Manuel, as well as non -resident fellow with the Atlantic Council.
And the reason I am really excited to have Stefanie on not only is
respect for her long -term policy analysis and her work in the field, but she recently wrote just a superb article for the Atlantic Council of Cause called, you know, Five Impacts from the Gaza War to Watch.
So, we're going to go over that, but before we do this, Stefanie, I want to give a shout out to you as co -founder of the Women Innovators Fellowship, the WIn Fellowships, which you co -founded to support entrepreneurs in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain.
Let me give you just a minute to talk about that program because I think it's fabulous.
Stefanie Ali (01:03.374)
Thanks so much, Richard. It's really an honor to be here. I've enjoyed listening to this podcast for a long time and I always learn whenever I do. So, it's just a delight to be here. And yes, the WIN Fellowship, you know, that is something that I was just so proud to be a part of. It was one of the innovations that we came up with when Amjad Ahmad was there.
And when I was there about two, three years ago, we started that particular project and it was, it really grew out of sort of some engagement we were doing with us embassy Riyadh and learning more from the women entrepreneurs we were interacting with in Saudi Arabia. And we saw there was really this need. There was this need to help these amazing women expand their networks, grow their networks, and also just gain some new skills. And so, we teamed up with Georgetown, and Georgetown offered this custom executive education program, and we, the Atlantic Council, helped pair up each WIN fellow with mentoring.
And we also helped them have access to events that we organized to talk about all different kinds of topics related to women's economic empowerment, entrepreneurship, policies that are changing that still need to change. And so, we just thought this was a great way to impact people really directly on the one hand. And on the other hand, it was also a wonderful way for us to learn more about what was happening inside the kingdom. And then eventually we expanded it to Bahrain and UAE as well.
And so, it's a great way to really learn what the needs are and to try to really make a difference in people's lives. So, I'm super proud of it. Applications are still open right now. My colleagues tell me for the, for the next cohort for Saudi Arabia. So, if you know somebody or you are somebody who's interested, please go to Atlantic Council website, apply. And, and it's a great, it's a great opportunity. They also do a road show for the top performers in the pitch competition. And they bring a group to DC and New York to meet with all different kinds of policy makers, investors, thought leaders. So, it's a wonderful opportunity.
Richard Wilson (02:53.523)
It is a wonderful opportunity. We've had a couple of wind fellows on the show. They were outstanding. And this is the third cohort group or the, yes. So, it gets better every time. And as you say, it's expanded, but so really well done. And, and, and you know, your work with Rice Hadley Gates and Manuel as, can you give us just briefly what, what they do and your work as international affairs consulting?
Stefanie Ali (02:58.99)
Yes. This will be the third.
Stefanie Ali (03:16.462)
Sure. Absolutely. Yes. So, it's really an incredible team that we have there led by the legendary Condoleezza Rice, Bob Gates, Steve Hadley, and Anya Manuel. And what we're really trying to do is advise US companies operating abroad, operating in emerging markets in particular. And so, as you can imagine, one of the big countries of focus is Saudi Arabia for many of our clients. And so
The kinds of things we do really range, but a lot of it's just giving them broad geopolitical advice, helping them think about risks, helping them plan their strategies. So, it really depends on each client, but it's just fascinating work.
Richard Wilson (03:52.883)
I can only imagine the spike in interest in the kingdom of late as people come to you and ask for some context. Yes. Fascinating. So, let's, let's dive into this. and as I mentioned, the title of the article is five impacts of the, of the Gaza war to watch. So just for our listeners, I'll offer a context. and so as, as, as everybody knows on October 7th, Hamas launched.
Stefanie Ali (03:57.23)
Yep, absolutely.
We've seen it, absolutely.
Richard Wilson (04:21.139)
a brutal murder and kidnapping attack in southern Israel that killed more than 1 ,200 with 250 people taken hostage. In response, Israel launched a large -scale ground invasion of Gaza on October 27th that to date has resulted in mass scale destruction, the displacement of nearly all of Gaza's 2 .3 million population and the deaths of 35 ,000 Palestinians, which the UN estimates at least 56 % are women and children.
Another 10 ,000 Palestinians are missing or presumed trapped under rubble. So that is the cold, hard and difficult to swallow facts of, as we know them, of the circumstances. But of course, there's been all sorts of political and diplomatic and reputational ramifications of this. And if you can give us a context, because obviously the US rolled in quite strongly behind Israel and in support of Israel.
And this is one of your major points in terms of assessing the five impacts. So can you, let's start with what's been the impact on the reputation of the United States of this Gaza war.
Stefanie Ali (05:30.382)
Yes. I think it's difficult to overstate the detrimental impact that this war and not just the war, but like you alluded to, you know, the way that the war has been conducted and then the way the U S under Biden has responded to it. impact has been just tremendously detrimental in terms of us reputation and the way we are seeing abroad, not just in the middle East, but we'll focus on the Middle East today, but.
Just to give you one sense of the damage that's been wrought, the Democracy Perception Index did a survey of people in Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, Algeria, so a pretty good sample. And in 2022, 24 % of those people had favorable views of the US. It was up to 32 % in 2023 in the spring before 10 -7 happened. And then now this year, we're down to 20%. So that's a 37 % drop year over year.
from last year. So, it's really precipitous. And I think there's a lot of factors behind that, you know, because some people would say, well, the US standing was already not great in the region. But as I just said, in this data, it's actually, it actually was better than it is now, though. That's one thing. But then some people will say, well, what's different? You know, what, why is it so much worse now? Because we've had conflicts before, you know, but I think the social media clips, I think the, you know, the videos from the ground are particularly
just haunting and they spread so quickly from people there inside Gaza. And so, I think that's one big factor. But I think it's also just sort of part of broader frustration that people feel with all of the past baggage with, you know, going back to 9 -11 or Iraq war, Afghanistan, you know, just this, this Islamophobia that people perceive and callousness about deaths, you know, in the Middle East. And so all of it has just come together and this has just reignited all those feelings.
and seems to be a way that people just feel as though the US is basically amoral, that we only take a stand for things when it matters to our interests, and we don't take a stand for things if it doesn't. And I think the Ukraine situation is also interesting in the sense that now we have this real juxtaposition because we have, in 2022, Russia invades Ukraine, US really stands up for Ukraine, rallies the world or as much of the world as it can to support Ukraine.
Stefanie Ali (07:49.678)
And so then now with this situation in Gaza, it's obviously not apples to apples. There are real differences, but people feel that there's a big hypocrisy there that, you know, how can you stand up for this country? And then when this happens, it's fine. You know, there's no similar reaction. And so, I think that's something that's also at play as well, just people seeing that comparison. And then the only other thing that I would point out about this is that as the US loses standing,
Unfortunately, China in particular and Russia too, to a certain extent, they are gaining at our expense. You know, there was an opinion poll that Al Monitor did in March, looking at some, asking some people in Egypt, Iraq, Tunisia, and Turkey about which world leader they view more favorably out of three. One was Putin and Russia and Xi and China, and then Biden, of course, in the US. And 44 % of them liked Putin the most. So, he was number one. And then Xi was at 33%.
And Biden was all the way down last place at 21%. So, it's a real shame to see that with all the advantages the U.S. has and with all the clear differences in my view between our country and China and Russia, we are losing ground to them. And China and Russia are absolutely using this situation in their own propaganda to make some of the exact arguments that I was just alluding to about U.S. double standards, U.S. hypocrisy, or just U.S.
inability to do anything about it. And that's the other criticism that I hear too, from the region in particular, that there's not only anger at the ethical piece of this, but there's also this anger that the US is basically by not changing its policies towards Israel, that the US is actually getting in the way of economic growth in the Middle East. That the region wants, in many of the countries, wants to open up, wants to have all these...
Richard Wilson (09:39.059)
region once in many of the countries.
Stefanie Ali (09:44.206)
pro -business reforms, wants to have more tourism and travel and connection with the world. But when it's continuously associated with war, even if the war is not within the borders of Saudi Arabia or UAE, but if it's sort of happening nearby, this is a real problem. It's a chilling effect and it's worrisome. And so, if we as the U.S. are perceived as sort of not doing what we can to change the trajectory of Israel -Palestine conflict, which has been going on for decades and which, as you and I know, is not going to change unless something...
Richard Wilson (09:50.035)
Thank you.
Stefanie Ali (10:13.742)
changes about what's the status quo. So that's the other piece of the frustration, I think, toward the US.
Richard Wilson (10:20.243)
I want to circle back to a topic specifically, you know, what is the nature of U.S. policy towards Israel in this war? You know, is it evolving? But before we do that, there's also other fallout, and that's in U.S. brands in the region. Can you address some of these sort of commercial and economic costs of this policy?
Stefanie Ali (10:42.318)
Yeah, and I think this is, to me, this is a really interesting indicator to watch because one thing that I personally was looking at when this latest conflict first broke out is would we see large scale street protests in the Middle East? And the issue is in many countries, there's a huge cost to going out in the street and protesting, right? There's the threat of arrest or worse. And so, for a lot of people, even if they have very strongly held views, a boycott is a way they can demonstrate their views without that same risk.
And so, I think we have absolutely seen a boycott movement that is different than any in the past. There's been boycott movements, there's been the BDS, you know, the boycott, divest sanctions movement for many years, but this has really, this new wave of boycotts has really gained traction. And I think is really going to stick around even after, I hope there's a ceasefire today or tomorrow, whenever it can come about. But even after that does happen or there's some kind of end to the situation, I think we're going to still see these boycotts ongoing.
So just in terms of impact, in terms of numbers, I'll just give you a few examples. So, Starbucks, for example, their net income in the second quarter of this year declined 15%. And their own CEO said in the earnings call that part of this poor performance was quote, misperception around its brand tied to the Israel Hamas war. So, 15 % net income declined for Starbucks and they've had to lay off 4 % of their workers in the Middle East. So that's about 2000 people.
And then just another example would be the umbrella group that operates KFC and Krispy Kreme. They reported almost a 50 % decline in their Q1 profit this year. So, these are, these are significant impacts. These are not minor, and they have been going on for months and there's no end in sight. And then when those, when those brands get boycotted, what happens is of course the, the domestic alternatives are very happy to try to pick up that.
Richard Wilson (12:33.363)
sure.
Stefanie Ali (12:33.422)
that market share, right? And the interesting thing is it's not just because those domestic brands can actually, they are more capable and willing to come out and take a pro -Palestinian stance, but it's also sometimes there's national pride elements. So sometimes people are switching their allegiance because of the alignment with the values and also because they kind of say, you know, I also like to support the local Egyptian soda brand or my coffee shop in Jordan that, you know, I'd rather support local. So that's another piece of it too.
Richard Wilson (13:00.531)
And it's, there's a lot of inadvertent fallout from that. I mean, I think in the Starbucks, there was an Israeli Starbucks that offered, you know, free meals, free, free McDonald's, sorry, free meals to, I think soldiers. Yes. But what's lost in the, in translation in essence is almost all of these local franchises are local.
Stefanie Ali (13:09.934)
That's McDonald's, but yes, I know what you're talking about. Yep. Right. To soldiers, to IDF, yep.
Stefanie Ali (13:24.079)
That's right. That's right. They're not owned in that situation. They're not managed by a corporate HQ that was sort of driving it. Yes, that's right.
Richard Wilson (13:29.325)
Right, right. So, you know, but so in essence, you know, if you're boycotting a local McDonald's or Starbucks, yes, you're making a statement, but you're also impacting a local entrepreneur. It was fascinating in the episode last episode, I spoke with Rating Lee, who does some really interesting things in terms of fashion consulting. And she said quite specifically that that corporations are coming to her.
Stefanie Ali (13:41.454)
Mm -hmm. Mm -hmm.
Richard Wilson (13:57.171)
This is with regard to Saudi Arabia and specifically, and we were talking about Nike, but she said there's lots of people that have been coming to her and say, can we, we want to get involved Arab brands and we really want to move away from American brands, you know, and this is quite specifically because of their, their, you know, a rejection of, of current policy. So, so let's talk about current policy. So, in the big picture, you know, President Biden,
Stefanie Ali (13:59.726)
Mm.
Stefanie Ali (14:09.038)
Mm -hmm.
Stefanie Ali (14:13.07)
Yes. Mm hmm.
Richard Wilson (14:27.283)
closely embraced a rather problematic figure in Benjamin Netanyahu. I sort of read that initially anyway as a real effort to try and contain the conflict. And this, at least at the beginning, certainly was in, I think Saudi Arabia in particular wanted it to see it contained. Iranians, as it turns out, wanted to see it contained. And perhaps he succeeded in that, but at what cost?
Stefanie Ali (14:56.014)
Yes. Yes. I mean, I think the initial reaction of Biden was also because he wanted to try to air and negotiate any disagreements privately, not publicly, and that he thought he could get more done if there was very strong public support and that he also telegraphed to the Israeli public that the United States has their back, that we're not trying to get in the way of some kind of a response to deal with the legitimate security concerns they face. So, yes.
But you're right, there's challenges with it.
Richard Wilson (15:25.011)
And it is challenging. And we've seen, and many people in the region may not be aware, there's been diplomatic fallout here, stateside. Certainly, there's people resigning in the State Department in protest policy. And so often the message that they're giving is, look, we are damaging our interests abroad because we won't say publicly what we're saying privately.
Stefanie Ali (15:35.566)
Absolutely.
Stefanie Ali (15:48.75)
Mm -hmm. Yes. I think there's also, though, a lot of feeling among people at the State Department and in other agencies, too. There have been more and more questions raised about just in terms of the same rules that we apply to other countries when we give them aid, you know, should they be applied here? I think it's getting to be, sorry, more and more of a question that people are asking as they see this situation in particular, which is different than other Gaza wars we have seen.
Richard Wilson (15:49.907)
Is that accurate?
Stefanie Ali (16:18.702)
So, I think there's also just new questions being asked. This ICC development is making a lot of people wonder what we should do policy -wise. But then I think also it's kind of what I said at the very beginning about, do we want to continue on kind of the same trajectory we've been on for decades? Because we haven't really modified US policy a whole lot. And we've seen what's happened. What's happened with the Israeli government has gotten more and more rightward leaning. And there's just been less and less progress on a solution.
Richard Wilson (16:23.827)
Mm -hmm.
Stefanie Ali (16:48.59)
And so, I think at some point, you know, some inside the government and elsewhere are asking, what do we need to do differently? You know, hopefully some people I've talked to, but I don't know if there's enough, you know, it's tough. Yes. Yes.
Richard Wilson (16:58.388)
Well, and that's the question. That's the question. I think the day after is really the ultimate goal here. I mean, can this catastrophic situation and this horrible situation on the ground in Gaza, can we end up at a better place, a more sustainable resolution that allows, and I think you make a really important point.
Most Arab states in the region, Saudi Arabia in particular, they don't have an issue with Israel as being part of the region. What they need, what they desire, what they crave is stability and quiet. And let us pursue our national interests. Let us build what we're trying to build. And we don't care if Israel is integrated in the region. We do care that this Palestinian situation has some sort of just resolution. And I do...
Stefanie Ali (17:28.91)
No, absolutely not.
Stefanie Ali (17:50.542)
And that it doesn't keep popping up and creating these terrible situations that then impact everybody. Yes, exactly. Yes. Yes.
Richard Wilson (17:52.147)
Yes. Yes. And this is the frustration I've had with Israeli policy forever is if you're looking at this strategically and you're really interested about security and safety, occupying your neighbor in this manner for 70 years doesn't buy you that. Maybe you should try a new way. Are we getting to that? Is the U.S. finally going to do you think as this has progressed? And I guess let me preface that with a question.
Stefanie Ali (18:14.35)
That's right.
Richard Wilson (18:21.619)
Is the administration clocking this strong distaste and disagreement with US policy in the region?
Stefanie Ali (18:30.062)
I think they are, but I think the unfortunate tendency of US government leaders is to say, well, first of all, public opinion doesn't matter in the Arab world because the leadership is in charge and the public doesn't get to vote. So, we just need to steamroll this. We're going to make this happen. It's fine. You know, they're going to accept it. And I think, you know, that's one thing I write about in the piece that you and I cite the wonderful Mark Lynch, who's the Arab media expert, I was fortunate to study under, you know, you do that as your own peril because the problem is,
Public opinion does matter. Now it manifests differently in the Arab world, but it can still pop up and it can still cause a bunch of issues. So, I hope that they're thinking about it, Richard, but I think it's a continual push and pull. It's a continual struggle because you have many people that would also make the case that there's not a good partner for peace on either side. That's the typical thing. So, it's sort of like, we need to stall. We need to sort of get this a little more stable, but we're not ready yet to do something really.
Dramatic, you know, and so I think what's what I'm watching what I'm very curious to see though is what happens inside internal Palestinian politics because now with all the pressure to reform You know what's happening in the West Bank and to reform leadership structures there and maybe you know open things up there to try to get more credibility there that Could be quite interesting if we see that happening and so I'm seeing you know I'm hearing about some internal pushing there So that would be very interesting to see too because that would help deal with that criticism that there's not the right partner for deals. Can you imagine if Salam Fayyad was available and was doing it? It could be quite game changing. It could be interesting.
Richard Wilson (20:05.779)
It would, and that's been sort of the fig leaf. Well, it's been true, but it's certain it's self -fulfilling prophecy in terms of Israel. I say, look, we have nobody to deal with. That's because they've undercut everybody with whom they could possibly potentially deal. So, let's talk about Israel. What's been the impact? And the old reading is typically when there's an attack on Israel, the population tends to move even farther right. And obviously we have a cabinet that is very far right.
Stefanie Ali (20:21.134)
Right. Right.
Stefanie Ali (20:33.998)
Yes.
Stefanie Ali (20:37.582)
Yes. Yep.
Richard Wilson (20:38.707)
What's been the impact in Israel? Have they progressed in their thinking at all, in your opinion?
Stefanie Ali (20:44.91)
Well, you know, unfortunately, I think it's definitely a case where the trauma of what happened on October 7th, it reverberates throughout society and understandably, you know, it's kind of like you can remember what happened after 9 -11 here in the US, you know, people, it really gets them into this scared, hardened position. And so, I think we're still very much in that, you know, when you look at the opinion polling, you know, over 70 % of Israeli Jews, this is in a recent poll,
I think the amount of force being used in Gaza is either enough, like it's appropriate, or more needs to be used. So, to me, that's pretty telling. And I think there's also, I forget the exact number, but I know there's also majority support for basically not having Israelis leave the Gaza Strip anytime soon because of security concerns. So, I think that's the problem there is you have this very recent...
Richard Wilson (21:20.019)
Yes.
Stefanie Ali (21:40.718)
tragedy that's now going to put a big roadblock and any kind of willingness or openness to taking these tough steps, you know, to change policy. You do still have people in the in the peace movement. They're trying. You do still have people. I mean, I think I do think the positive is that you do still have people in the center in Israel who are very much pointing out the fact that there's no end game right now. What is the plan for Gaza? You know, you've seen you've seen the war cabinets had the resignations and they're trying to push for at least some kind of articulated strategy.
But my question is, how is that going to really manifest? Because the options don't look to be very good right now. It's not positive.
Richard Wilson (22:16.595)
What have been, sorry to interrupt, Israel obviously has always been keenly interested in that its narrative prevails, and obviously keenly interested in a healthy economy and building their economy. What kind of reputational financial hits has Israel taken as a result of this?
Stefanie Ali (22:24.974)
Yes.
Stefanie Ali (22:35.726)
Well, this is something I'm watching very carefully because, you know, I think the first thing that people would, we're pointing out when this, when this war began was, well, when the reservists, when these hundreds of thousands of reservists are all called up and then on duty for months on end over time, this is going to impact the Israeli economy. And that's definitely the case. But the thing that not a lot of people have been talking about that I have been watching is so in addition to that, you also have to think about companies that were considering big investments into Israel.
Right. And so, then they have two worries now. One is reputational because they're, they're seeing all the boycotts, they're seeing all the protests, they're seeing all the fixation on this. And they're a bit worried depending on the sector they're in. Some sectors are more sensitive than others, but you know, if they're a tech company or something, for example, and they were considering a big deal with the Israeli government, they might be worried that their own employees will suddenly protest them in a very public embarrassing way, or that they'll just get media scrutiny depending on how their technology is used. And so.
They might be more inclined to say, let's not do this right now. Let's wait if we can, or let's minimize this. So that's one thing, the reputational worries. But then there's also the worries about actual operations within Israel. What if suddenly Hezbollah goes at it with Israel, or Israel goes at it with Hezbollah, and they decide to really have a much more intense conflict than what they've been having? Or what if Iran and Israel decide to go at it again, but in a bigger, more significant way? So, these kinds of things could mean,
airspace closures, sheltering in place for employees or getting employees out, fuel costs, hiking, all kinds of just operational problems that if these companies are considering a big investment and a footprint inside Israel, they're thinking twice because the risks are not looking great right now. So, I think we're going to see FDI fall in the short term with Israel, at least until the situation is more stable and until there's a better sense of what the outlook is.
Richard Wilson (24:27.091)
You very definitely segued into my next question and that was well done because.
To date, a full-blown conflict with Hezbollah has been avoided. But you point out in your article that the potential for destabilizing lone wolf attacks and protests and that sort of thing, it's such a fraught tense situation that all of those who wanted to fail and all of those who are armed, they have an opportunity. And one of the things you point out, which is interesting, is since mid-October 2023, there's been more than 150 attacks on US forces based in the region.
We saw some soldiers, US personnel killed in an attack by Iranian proxies in Iraq. Yes, this is a tinderbox, a powder keg.
Stefanie Ali (25:22.35)
Absolutely, yes. And this is something that the people that are reading the intelligence that I do not see, but the people that do read the intelligence and they speak about it publicly, they are sounding the alarm bells. You know, there was a piece yesterday by Michael Morell and some others in foreign affairs saying, the lights are blinking red, the terrorism lights are blinking red again, just like it was before 9 -11. And we need to really be paying attention to this. And then Avril Haynes, our director of national intelligence told Congress in March, I'm gonna just read this quote, because I think it's really chilling. She says,
quote, the crisis has galvanized violence by a range of actors around the world. And while it's too early to tell, it is likely that the Gaza conflict will have a generational impact on terrorism, generational impact on terrorism. So, these things we're not gonna necessarily see tomorrow, although, you know, just this month we saw somebody try to attack the US embassy in Lebanon. You know, thankfully that person was stopped, but unfortunately that person did shoot a security guard.
You know, these kinds of things can impact US companies abroad. They can impact US embassies abroad, US tourists and people abroad. So that's a big concern. But they can also erupt here inside the United States. They can erupt globally. So, there's just so many, unfortunately, these groups, it's a very small number of people, right? Like I in no way mean to intimate that the majority of people in the Middle East would do anything like this. I think it's a very small minority. But...
Richard Wilson (26:40.755)
Mm -hmm.
Stefanie Ali (26:41.582)
These minorities of groups can do horrific damage and they only have to get it right once to be successful. So, I think if people are not thinking about that now, then they're really kidding themselves that we're gonna just sort of skate by with this because this is just recruiting and radicalizing material that these groups are all capitalizing on that have the chance to. So.
Richard Wilson (27:03.859)
That is a chilling quote, and it speaks to what sort of mystifies me about the long -term Israeli plan. I mean, because they are this, this war has created another generation. so, let's talk about what interesting things are going on though. And, and we were all aware that it was, you know, with this talk about specifically about Saudi Arabia, but you know, you know,
Stefanie Ali (27:15.342)
Mm -hmm. Yes.
Richard Wilson (27:29.043)
as Joe Biden was running for office, he said some things, but when he came into office, that relationship was a little chilly. Yes, exactly. It's warmed up considerably because I think there's been a great deal of progress made in terms of trust and familiarity and working on common goals. I think it's vastly improved from what it was. But one of the things you say in your article,
Stefanie Ali (27:36.398)
Yes, to put it mildly. Yes.
Stefanie Ali (27:48.75)
Yes, yes, yes.
Richard Wilson (27:56.659)
It's quite interesting. Its Arab states are pulling away publicly from the United States in some ways, but still desire close ties. Can you elaborate on that?
Stefanie Ali (28:02.222)
Mm -hmm. Yes. Yes. Yes. So, you know, I think when this situation in Gaza kicked off, I think some questions that we got at least were, okay, is it going to spread to Saudi, to UAE? And, you know, most of us that have watched the Middle East a long time kind of said, no, not likely at all, because you have the case studies of Egypt and Jordan where they've had cold peace for many, many years with Israel and have no desire or capability to get involved in a...
you know, a conflict with Israel. So, it's, I think, I think there was certainly a desire for security and a security umbrella on the part of Arab states. But you know, the U S is the one that can really provide that there's sort of the best option. You know, we read a lot now about China being sort of a rival in the region for the U S and there's some things that China can sell or provide that we can't, but in terms of military protection, there's no other game but the U S in town for the kind of protection that Saudi Arabia.
you know, UAE, these kinds of countries want. And so despite what we've been talking about with the popular anger, frustration with the situation in Gaza, as was typified when there was a direct attack by Iran on Israel, you know, you saw that kind of remarkable coordination, cooperation, even in a very awkward moment where they were defending Israel from Iran. They were willing and able and adeptly accomplished it with.
huge US leadership, of course. And so I think that is a dynamic that also just underscores the capability to move to a much better place in the region in terms of having economic integration, having the security cooperation, trying to deter, you know, actors like the Houthis that are trying to really upset things in the region and really stand up to that. There's a desire to do that. There is a desire to have stability and peace. And so that's what
I see anyway.
Richard Wilson (29:57.363)
And you know, security as well, it's interesting and technology as well. You know, the UAE agreement is telling and promising. So, let's hope, let's hope when this airs a week from now that there's a ceasefire in place. That would be inshallah. I always say inshallah yes or inshallah no, but let's say inshallah yes.
Stefanie Ali (30:16.686)
That's hope, inshallah, right? We must say that.
Well, this is a big inshallah yes.
Richard Wilson (30:27.703)
You know what so that's a three -stage process as proposed, you know, many things are not specified and We do have a problematic partner in in in Israel In terms of US national interest in my opinion Let's say it's in place and we also have these very earnest and serious Negotiations ongoing with Saudi Arabia in terms of a security agreement with them
Richard Wilson (30:57.811)
That includes nuclear power and other things. What would you like to see happen? Let's say we get the ceasefire in place. And this is in speaking, putting on your analyst hat, you know, in terms of international security affairs and that sort of thing. What would you like to see happen? What could possibly happen?
Stefanie Ali (31:01.582)
Thank you.
Stefanie Ali (31:21.358)
Well, I think the deal on the table in terms of Saudi normalization with Israel in exchange for a couple of different, you know, big new commitments from the U.S., I think it could absolutely happen. But I think the challenge is going to be getting the Israeli piece of it to come through, because I think if you don't have that piece, that normalization piece, I think it's very hard to pass sort of a treaty type of security guarantee through the Senate as it stands now, because there's still just a lot of...
Richard Wilson (31:43.827)
Mm -hmm.
Stefanie Ali (31:49.966)
people in the Senate who are not fans of Saudi Arabia and will not want to do that, I don't think. So, unless there's that normalization piece attached. So, I don't know. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens with that. But I think the willingness is absolutely there on the Saudi side. You know, I mean, they, they, they say this all the time publicly and privately. And I think it's very, it's very much on the table, but I think the question is going to be what it will, you know, Netanyahu will likely still be in power. What, what will he be willing to trade?
You know what? How much will this matter to him from a legacy perspective? And it may matter a great deal to him to do this historic deal with Saudi Arabia. So that's the question mark. I think we're all watching that.
Richard Wilson (32:30.099)
I think you put your finger on it. I think, you know, this is not the Abraham Accords. Saudi Arabia is positioned in the Arab world, the Islamic world. Harking back to your earlier note about public opinion, public opinion does matter, it matters in Saudi Arabia. They can't do a deal unless it's real and leads to a path of some sort of just resolution for Palestine. So, it is a fascinating point.
Stefanie Ali (32:36.942)
No.
Richard Wilson (33:00.019)
in history right now. And I feel it's, I'm not optimistic about Israel's choices or Benjamin Netanyahu. I am really impressed with how Saudi Arabia has played this by saying, okay, we're going to move ahead. We're going to put this out there and you're welcome to meet us, but it's got to be genuine. It's got to be real. It's got to be verifiable, but it's there. So, I mean, it's a fascinating point.
Stefanie Ali (33:02.158)
Yes.
Stefanie Ali (33:17.998)
Mm -hmm. Mm -hmm.
Stefanie Ali (33:28.366)
And what I think it is and what works in their favor too, if you ask me, is no matter who's elected president, if Biden, if we have Biden too, or if we have a second Trump, I think this deal still will have equal salience, equal importance, equal support from the U .S. So, in a way, the Saudis have a little time. It doesn't have to be under Biden, you know? I mean, it's great if it is, but you know what I'm saying? Like they also have that kind of thing in their pocket where they can wait too, if they need to.
Richard Wilson (33:55.891)
I agree completely. And I think they've played it intelligently and they're playing the long game. And I'm really pleased, as I mentioned earlier, that it's resulted in these close coordinated and trust building relationships and communications with their US counterparts. So, in that regard, I'm really happy about it.
Stefanie Ali (34:12.558)
Yes. Yeah, it's kind of flipped the script because you have Saudi kind of doing what the US would like to see and Israel sort of really creating some challenges from this perspective, at least in terms of the US would love to see the Israel do this and they're not right now being super helpful with it. So.
Richard Wilson (34:30.163)
100%. Stefanie Alley, this has just been a treat. Thank you so much. You know, it's always fun to visit with you, but this has really been informative for me, and I really appreciate you coming on. My guess is I'll invite you back and I hope you'll say yes.
Stefanie Ali (34:37.966)
My pleasure.
Stefanie Ali (34:47.598)
That's very kind of you. Well, I really appreciate the invitation. It's great to speak with you too, Richard.