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Hedging the Bet with Gabe Sousa and Ben Julian is your go-to sports betting podcast, dropping every Friday to prep you for the weekend’s action. Each week, Gabe and Ben break down the top matchups across the world of sports—offering sharp analysis, expert picks, and all the insight you need to place your bets with confidence. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just looking for smart plays, Hedging the Bet is your winning edge!
Ladies and gentlemen, I cannot explain how excited I am to be back here in East Lansing in the beautiful Impact eighty eight point nine FM studio podcast studio that is, to be bringing you some Hedging the Bank content. I'm not alone today. I'm joined by my brother from the same mother, Clark Souza. I appreciate you joining me today. Appreciate you having me.
Gabe:Yeah. I mean, we were so we were supposed to record this episode last night. We kinda got the boot because people in higher places than us had stuff to do in here, and I completely understand. But I was very excited because last night was a night before Christmas, if you will, before the first NFL game. But what better day to do it than the day of, of course.
Gabe:Otherwise, I have to edit this and get it out before the 08:15 kickoff tonight. But today, we're gonna be going over our predictions for the year, kind of the awards that we see at the NFL Honors every year, week before the Super Bowl. And we're gonna give you some of our guys, maybe maybe some of our favorite picks, some sleepers you can toss some dough on. And, yeah, why don't we get right into it, Clark? Let's just do it.
Gabe:We're gonna start off with the defensive rookie of the year. I understand that you're going with the chalk pick here.
Clark:Abdul Carter looks like the strong candidate as of now, of course, coming into, what was a giants defense. I think he's going to thrive. You know, he was big 10 defensive player of the year, and I can almost guarantee you that he'll be the defensive rookie of
Gabe:the year here in the NFL. Yeah. So so when looking at the options, Abdul Carter obviously is the heavy favorite compared like, based on the sports book odds, of course, through DraftKings and FanDuel. I am a little nervous about Abdul Carter. He comes in at plus two fifty odds.
Gabe:There were there were some reports coming out of the Giants camp saying that Abdul Carter could be used more in a quarterback spy role. The exact report was I think the Giants could use Abdul Carter a little bit in a week one as a spy versus Jane Daniels in select packages the way LSU is using Harold Perkins junior versus Cade Klubnik tonight. And that's, of course, because Jane Daniels is a rushing threat, and so is Jalen Hurts in the division. And fair. Yeah.
Gabe:And the concern is last year, the Giants ranked twenty fifth against the run, and they were almost dead last in giving chunk plays to quarterbacks rushing. In the division with Jane Daniels and Jalen Hurts, the Giants head coach Brian Dabell and defense corner Shane Bowen. They both agreed that Abdul Carter would be very valuable on a spy position, which could hurt his chances of racking up sacks and TFLs throughout the season. Some guy someone I wanna bring up is obviously Travis Hunter plus a thousand odds. Please do not touch Travis Hunter for defensive rookie of the year this year.
Gabe:It has been told out of Jacksonville training camp that he's expected to be scripted to play defense in a set amount of downs. What does that mean? Well, he's only gonna come in for 10 to 20 snaps on defense per game. That's for the start of the season. Obviously, if he's a great lockdown corner, he's gonna be playing both sides of the ball, but it's just really he's used for fresh legs on defense if they need to stop an obvious passing situation.
Gabe:Liam Cohen, new head coach down in Jacksonville has said that he's gonna come in and kinda be their their their ace in the hole, if you will. They he is strictly gonna be a sub left cornerback behind Jerrion Jones. He's gonna strictly stay on the left side of the field because that's where he saw more success with Colorado in his college career. And the Jaguars are gonna retain top their top three corners from last year, which is Jerrion Jones, who Travis Hunter is behind, as well as Tyson Campbell and Montariuk Brown. So they didn't lose any there's no really opportunity for Travis Hunter to find a starting role, not that necessarily he needs it because, you know, he's obviously gonna be playing on the other side of the ball for half the game.
Gabe:So do not he's plus 1,000 odds. I believe he's the second favorite right now, maybe third. Please do not bet on him. If you bet, you know, a $100, you're gonna win zero. So my pick, personally, is a guy out of Marshall.
Gabe:This guy fell in the draft to the Ravens all the way in the second round. Mike Green plus 1,200 odds. He led all of college football with sacks with 17, and he was tied second in TFLs with 22 and a half. This is what CBS sports reporter John Breach had to say about Mike Green. He said last year, I correctly predicted that Jared Verse would win defensive rookie of the year, and this year, I am jumping on the Mike Green bandwagon.
Gabe:A front seven player has won this award in seven of the past nine years. Another reason to not put money on Travis Hunter. And Green will keep that trend going. Breach continued. The easy the easiest way for a defensive player to win this award is to rack up sacks, and Green is in the perfect division to do that.
Gabe:Clark, ask me why I say that. Why do you say that? Because the AFC North does not have a good offensive line group. The best offensive line that the Ravens will face in their division is the Steelers at twenty second best in the league. Following that is the Browns at twenty eighth and the Bengals at thirtieth.
Gabe:That is that is like that's like rolling up to Thanksgiving dinner, and it's just a feast on the table for Mike Green. I mean, this guy is gonna have his way. I think that Mike Green could get it done based on this week, very weak division. Moving into the offensive rookie of the year now. I have a quick question before we get into it.
Gabe:The running back group this year is very strong. It's one the best we've seen in years. Obviously, we don't know how they've played yet, but it's predicted that it's gonna be one of best, of course. Between a Marion Hampton, Trayvon Henderson, Ashen Genti, is there a chance that this race is so tight between the three backs that a different position group, whether they're worthy or not, get the award? Do you understand the question?
Gabe:Of course. Because you just teed me up for who I think will get the offensive rookie of the year.
Clark:Please elaborate. Mister Cameron Ward. Because guess what? He was number one overall for a reason. Alright?
Clark:I don't understand why people don't talk about him. Well, you've heard more about Shudder Sanders and Ashton Ginti and all these others that, you know, just they yeah. They got drafted, and I'm not going to say that they don't have talent because guess what? They have a lot of talent. I took a lot of them in my fantasy drafts pretty high up, right?
Clark:But Cameron Ward, I also took in my fantasy draft because they no one was taking him in theirs. And so I think that he's a very valuable pick with what seemed like a pretty promising preseason in the very limited snaps that he played. I also think that, you know, since he was ACC offensive player of the year, he's already got an award under his belt. Why not shoot for more, you know? You go into the NFL, same thing with what I was saying with Abdo Carter, you know, you know, get into the league, and he's got a promising room.
Clark:I'm not aware of what their his offensive line looks like, but I know that he's already have strong connections with Calvin Ridley. Yep. You know, he's got a veteran Tyler Lockett, and then, you know, you've got Tony Tony Pollard, you know, to run for you. I think he's got a solid foundation for a squad, and I
Gabe:think that he can most certainly get at least seven to eight wins, and that is very, you know, floor to me. If I were to take a conservative pick, I absolutely agree that I would take Cam Ward right now. He's plus 350 odds. He has you kinda touched on it. He has Ridley.
Gabe:He has two vets. They brought in Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson, and then he has the safety blanket in Chico Quonco, which all we know that all rookie quarterbacks use that use that their tight end as their safety blanket. So someone to look into, honestly, Chico Quonco, maybe sleeper fantasy tight end this year. Probably touch that later on in the season. So you like Cam Ward?
Gabe:I like Cam Ward as well, but a guy a guy I've been so high on. Do you know do you know who I'm gonna say here?
Clark:I don't want to be right, but
Gabe:is it Ashton GT? It's not. No. I'm afraid to touch the running backs this year because I feel like the race is gonna be so close between the three of them that's gonna kinda cancel out. And hope that's not the case.
Gabe:You know, obviously, these guys are talented, and and if one of them really shines through, they should win the award. But, you know, it's happened in years past. It can absolutely happen again this year. Tyler Warren, plus 2,200 odds. He was the fourteenth overall pick out of Penn State.
Gabe:He was seventh in Heisman voting as a tight end. Tells you pretty much, what you need to know about him. He had 12 total touchdowns last year with Penn State. Eight of them were receiving touchdowns. And you're thinking, wait a minute.
Gabe:This guy is a tight end. Yeah. But he only caught there's there I'm we're missing four touchdowns here. The Nittany Alliance took 24 snaps at a Wildcat formation this past year. They led to Tyler Warren rushing for 200 yards and four touchdowns.
Gabe:That's over eight yards per carry for a tight end. And let me ask you this, Clark. Let's say you're an Indianapolis Colts fan. Mhmm.
Clark:First game of the year. Sounds like a terrible time, especially against the Dolphins.
Gabe:Alright. And I agree. And it's about to get worse. Yeah. You're on the goal line.
Gabe:Fourth and one. One second left. Last play of the game. Would you rather put the game in the hands of Daniel Jones Yep. Yep.
Gabe:Or Tyler Warren and the Wildcat rushing the ball?
Clark:See, both of these are very tempting. And that's by the way Think about it, though, because Daniel Jones is a big boy. He he he can probably get through one yard. Yeah. You know?
Gabe:Yeah. Well, remember But Tyler Warren. And and this is not to discredit Daniel Jones, but you'd even think about him throwing the ball, right, as as a quarterback for the quarterback position. You're fourth and one. You're probably
Clark:on on the goal line. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you're probably gonna run it.
Gabe:I know. But that's what I'm saying. Would you rather have Tyler Warren run the ball or Daniel Jones run slash pass? And it's a serious question. I'm not being facetious in asking this question because we know that we know that Tyler Warren is really good at running the ball through the Wildcat formation.
Gabe:He did it for over 200 yards and four touchdowns this year with Penn State just this past year. And then Daniel Jones can make some questionable decisions sometimes if I'm, you know, if I am someone of high power in the in the, Colts organization, which I do not envy that spot right now, but, I'm seriously considering handing it handing it to Tyler Warren. Mhmm. And I think that What about Anthony Richardson? I don't know.
Gabe:He'll probably he'll probably tap out in the middle of a drive like he did last year. So but but yeah. I mean, it might not even be the game on the line. Right? But it's just something to think about, like, in those situations, you know, Tyler Warren could could I guess, I could vulture it from Daniel Jones, but Daniel Jones might not get the job done anyway, which is why I like Tyler Warren to be sneaky good this year.
Gabe:Moving on. Defensive player of the year. And this one's a tough one because I think we both agree that, you know, one of the leading candidates for this is also a leading candidate candidate for another award, which we'll touch on a bit. But tell me about your DPOY
Clark:Yeah. So at plus 1,500 odds, it's kind of a dark horse, and the justification is truly just off of his last year because guess what? He was a rookie last year. It's Jared first.
Gabe:Mhmm.
Clark:He got defensive player of the year last year. I think he can only go one step up right now, you know, get defensive player of the year and or MVP, and let's look at that. Oh, yeah. Yeah. But, on a serious note, defensive player of the year seems very strong in a role where he's, you know, he's gonna have to step up with no Aaron Donald.
Clark:He's gonna be well, wasn't a linebacker, but he's gonna be the new linebacker there. His name is already one of the biggest names in their defense. Mhmm. And I think that truly when you're going looking at, like, the division, soft division. Mhmm.
Clark:Alright? So I feel like I feel like he might be there.
Gabe:And I don't I don't disagree. I think the Rams are the favorite there, and Mhmm. Yeah. But anyway, continue. Sorry.
Clark:Well, I don't have much more to say. I just I just think that Jared Verse is gonna win. Yeah. And, you know, when you look at Myles Garrett, Michael Parsons, and Aiden Hutchinson, the three that are ahead of Jared Verse Mhmm. You know, I don't have any reason to say no to Myles Garrett other than a gut feeling.
Clark:I I but Michael Parsons, I think he might be hurt this season. The as of now, there's already reports of him being, you know, like, have him having some back problems. Who knows if he's actually gonna start against the Lions as as of now? That is up in the air. It is up in the air.
Clark:So I don't know if this is gonna be a lingering issue throughout the seasons, and I wouldn't wanna touch that. Hutchinson, we'll touch on it a bit, but I think Jared versus gonna be my dark horse pick.
Gabe:So let's say the three favorites ahead of him, right? Micah Parsons has the injury scare. Some people are saying, oh, you know, he's a new team, whatever. Micah Parsons is first of all, the defensive end position is really a plug and play position. Your goal is to kinda get to the quarterback and contain the running back.
Gabe:Right? But Michael Parsons is certainly talented enough where he can thrive in any defense. Right? But he has the injury issue. Aiden Hutchinson, a leading candidate for comeback player of the year.
Gabe:That scares you because people rarely win two awards, and it's gonna be hard for him to even you know, we we know he's talented enough to win defensive player of year, but we had to remember, he is coming he just snapped his leg in national television, you know, you know, not even a year ago. Right? So so you had to keep that in consideration. Right? And then Miles Garrett just secured the bag.
Gabe:You know? Unfortunately, when these athletes get paid, sometimes their performance lacks, and, he's kind of the gem in that Browns team right now. Maybe he thinks mentally that, you know, he just he got his money.
Clark:He already said he wanted out, and he came back because of the bag. Who knows if his heart's in the right place? Exactly.
Gabe:Well, it was really well put, actually. Thank you. I think I think Jared Verse is is is it's a really good pick honestly because he, you know, he comes in and and Aaron Donald leaves. He's like, oh my goodness, the Rams, you know, what are they gonna do their defense? They lost they lost Jalen Ramsey if you remember that back in the day as well and their defense kinda slowly crumbled and fell apart and then Jovers comes in, wins rookie of the year or defensive rookie of the year, I mean, has an instant impact.
Gabe:He filled that role of Aaron Donald. Trained, worked out with Aaron Donald last offseason throughout the year and this offseason. He has that dog in him literally. And Sure. Thanks.
Gabe:I appreciate that. We just put my point there. And, yeah, I think you can absolutely take the next step, and I don't hate that pick at all. Offensive player of the year. We've kinda talked about this before we started recording.
Gabe:I think we're in the same boat here. Tell me about tell me about your guy, Tripp Conrunner.
Clark:Mister Jamar. Mister Chase. Mister Jamar Chase at plus 800. I think that, there's not really any stats you really need to back yourself up with. No.
Clark:Let's be honest.
Gabe:Because he led in everyone last year, so
Clark:Yes, sir. And he has zero defense, so he has to be a 100% offense. I think that, you know, and we'll I'm gonna touch on Joe Burrow later. I think that Ja'Marr Chase is going to need to step up. You know, you've got Tee Higgins, you've got Chase Brown, you've got a lot of great players on, the Bengals team.
Clark:They all are gonna thrive in this strong offense. I have no doubt that they will end up all all thriving. But I think Ja'Marr Chase will come out on top. He's gonna have one of his best seasons. He was, I believe, runner-up last year
Gabe:Yes.
Clark:In offensive player of the year, at least in sportsbook odds, behind Saquon, and let's be honest, no one's going to argue Saquon Saquon Saquon the Saquon out of Yeah. The entire league. So, you know, this year, I'm not saying that Saquon can't get it again, but I think that Ja'Mar Chase, he's due. Alright? You know, and you hate to say that in the gambling or betting world, but Yeah.
Clark:He he he deserves it, and I think that he will get it this year.
Gabe:So with Jamar Chase, I wanted to compare him because he's also my pick. I wanted to compare him to the guys kind of around him, and not from a betting odds standpoint according to the sports books, and Saquon is the favorite right now. We know Saquon has an injury problem. You know? Luckily, he stayed healthy last year, and we had privilege as NFL fans to watch him play football.
Gabe:But, you know, history shows that he's he's not gonna do it again. No running back who no running back who's on top of rushing yards has ever done it again the next year. And and, yes, he set the record for rushing yards through regular season and postseason last year, but, you know, he's getting older. The injury bug's there. He most likely will not do what he did again even though he's a freak athlete.
Gabe:You know? Who in their right mind jumps over someone backwards? But but yeah. I mean and then the one thing that is concerning is because is that Ja'Mar Chase won the Triple Crown last year, and he didn't even touch Saquon Barkley in voting. So that's something to think about.
Gabe:However, you know, there is voter fatigue is a thing. Saquon Barkley, you know, has a lot of thing working a lot of things working against them this year. Another competition, Jamere Gibbs. I thought about picking Jamere Gibbs, but then I thought about it. It just it's really tough for someone to win offensive player of the year when they have someone who's, you know, I wouldn't argue equally as good, but a very talented running back and David Montgomery taking their snaps.
Gabe:And from a you know, obviously, you don't want your guys to be hurt. I'm not saying that at all, but I'm saying, like like, from a, you know, winning an award perspective for Jamere Gibbs, the best case scenario was last year. David Montgomery missed last couple of games, and Jamere Gibbs, we saw he had four touchdowns in that last game against the Vikings, and and it wasn't enough. And David Montgomery, you know, you know, we're not we're not preying on his downfall, but it had to happen for the entire season for Jamere Gibbs to have a chance. And I personally don't want that to happen, so Jamere Gibbs not winning offensive player of the year might be a good thing coming from Lions fan, of course.
Gabe:Derek Henry is in that bubble as well. You know, he's they call him the abominable snowman because whenever it starts snowing, he statistically skyrockets. He plays so much better because Clark, could you tackle Derrick Henry? I couldn't tackle him in any climate or any weather. Exactly.
Gabe:Let's pretend you were paying millions of dollars to do it. Do you think you could do it? And you
Clark:were an athlete? I mean, if I was six two and Yeah. Three hundred pounds, maybe I could tackle it.
Gabe:Yeah. Yeah. Do you know what? It's harder to do in the cold. Mhmm.
Gabe:And people have broken down how much better he is when he when he plays in the snow. That's why they call him the abominable snowman. But he's not a year older. You know, he's a freak of nature, but That's the point. I yeah.
Gabe:I know. And it it's hard to see between Saquon, Gibbs, and Bijan. I I think those guys will beat him out in most stats this year, and it's not a knock on Derrick Henry just because, you know, kind of new generation's coming in. Right? McQueen is fading and all that.
Gabe:We had Jamar Chase as our pick anywhere from plus 800 to eighty fifty odds right now on the sports book. I'll come back play of the year. I, you know, I have my notes sheet with me. Don't know if you can see it in the camera, but all I have written down is Hutch. Yep.
Gabe:Because I think that, then Clark and I would agree here, and we don't need to be long winded on this that, by Aiden Hutchinson standards, he just needs an average season. He had I it was seven it was seven or seven half sacks through four or five games last year.
Clark:Oh, I thought it was more.
Gabe:Was it? It's it's unbelievable what he was doing, and, and we likely won't see that again coming off an injury. You know, he's playing better offensive lines this year, of course, but I don't see even if he has even if he has an average season for a defensive lineman or, you know, edge rusher, which would be a disappointment by his standards, but average in the league, he's gonna win comeback play of
Clark:the year. I think that what would actually hurt him is McCaffrey because he is also in the race. He's, in my opinion, the only other player as of now that could win it, unless if there's, you know, someone else that we don't even know yet. Right? Imagine, like, QB unretiring and coming in.
Clark:Darren Darren Waller? Darren?
Gabe:If Darren Waller wins Defensive Player the Year, I'll jump into the race.
Clark:No, come back. Come back.
Gabe:Player the Oh, yeah. Yeah. Sorry. Come back Player the Year. Excuse me.
Clark:I I couldn't even think of anyone else that has a remote chance, but maybe I don't know Ball. But McCaffrey, I think that, you know, he he can have a very good season
Gabe:Yeah.
Clark:After coming off of injury. A lot of people are doubting if he can get through this season without injury. So if he can do that, and, you know, big if, of course, if he can do that with a great season, I think he's the only chance of beating Hutch out Hutch. But yeah, with comparing injuries, you hate to do it, but you compare injuries, Hutch had the much worse injury
Gabe:Yeah.
Clark:So coming back from that and playing a season would be much more impressive.
Gabe:I don't think it's a hot take at all that Aiden Hutchinson will certainly, you know, be top seven, if not top five or top three in the runnings for defensive player of year. Yep. And if he gets to that standard, he will certainly, at least, at the very minimum, win comeback player of the
Clark:year. Yep.
Gabe:Moving on, coach of the year. Clark and I talked about this yesterday with the same pick. Tell me about Mike Vrabel.
Clark:Mister Mike Vrabel, you know, I I was very surprised. I I was confident in this pick before I looked at the stats. But when I looked at the stats, he has the third easiest schedule in the league. Yep. The Patriots are going against damn near bums.
Clark:Okay? You know, looked at, you know, what teams would they be going against that are, you know, difficult. Right? You've got the Bills twice, naturally, you know, division division rival, that's gonna that's gonna suck.
Gabe:Which by the way, and I hate to interrupt, I could easily see the Patriots winning one of those games.
Clark:Yes. Especially a home game.
Gabe:Yeah.
Clark:Yep. Yep. You've got Tampa. I I threw Tampa in there as, you know, a potential difficult team. Yep.
Clark:Cincinnati, naturally. Mhmm. You know, and even then, Patriots beat Cincy last year. Correct?
Gabe:Yes. Yes. Week one. Week one. Week week one.
Clark:A lot of people's
Gabe:Survivor. Yeah.
Clark:And then the Ravens. Those are like the gauntlet. Those are the difficult teams. But let me list off the rest of them. We've got Jetson defends twice.
Clark:Right? You've got Raiders, Panthers Yeah. Saints, Titans, Browns, and Giants.
Gabe:Oh my goodness. This is a pillow or a cakewalk. This is the no. I mean, you're right. It's a pillow fight that they're gonna be doing out there.
Clark:I think that Mike Rabel can absolutely dominate at plus seven fifty. He's a steal for coach of the year.
Gabe:Ask me how many games they're favored in this year. How many games are they favored in? 11. Oh. So based on sportsbooks predictions, preseason predictions, of course, they're gonna win 11 games this year.
Gabe:Yes. How many games they win last year? Four.
Clark:I was about to say.
Gabe:Yeah. Four. And if if Mike Vaibel gets to that 10 or 11 number and makes the playoffs with a team that won four games last year. That is coach of the year on lock. Mhmm.
Gabe:The only other guy, and he's a bit of a Voldemort around here. Mhmm. Guy in Chicago, Ben Johnson. Biggest competition right now, odds on favorite. You know, what?
Gabe:How does Mike Vrabel have the edge on Ben Johnson this year?
Clark:Well, I'd more say how does Ben Johnson not have the edge on Mike Vrabel? I feel like I feel
Gabe:like we just said the same thing twice. I mean
Clark:No. You're saying Vrabel has edge. I'm saying how does he not? Not saying I'm saying Oh, Vrabel might not have so many positives as Ben Ben has has negatives.
Gabe:I see. Yeah. And one of those cons is playing in a great division in FC North.
Clark:Absolute phenomenal, just very gritty division, yes.
Gabe:I Yeah, grid there's up north, yeah.
Clark:Yeah. Listen, alright. I think if he can do well in a gritty division, yeah, he's going to he he can easily win that, I understand.
Gabe:Do the Bears make the playoffs this year? No. That was a quiet no. No. You didn't say that with your chest.
Clark:I think they they could, but I don't think they will. But that might just be coming from a biased Lions fan. But I think that Ben Johnson, he's coming into look, he was offensive coordinator for the Lions when they went three thirteen and one. Yeah. Right?
Clark:No one talks about that. Guess what? He he did phenomenal when we had a good team. Did he pick out the players that should be on our team, or did Brad Holmes? There was I
Gabe:mean I mean, he had some say
Clark:Yeah. But
Gabe:but Brad Holmes, yeah.
Clark:So you're looking at the Bears. He didn't have any say No. Until this this draft class Yeah. In what was going to, you know, what he's going to have as a, you know, a team. So I think that this team has been developed under a different person.
Clark:He has to adjust to that. And, you know, we saw three thirteen and one Mhmm. When he I don't know when he came into the Lions organization, but, know, it takes some adjusting.
Gabe:Yeah.
Clark:You know, especially you need you need good players. Granted, I think that the three thirteen and one Lions were a lot worse than this Bears team currently, and he's coming in with a lot of potential. You know, you've got Roman Doensee Mhmm. And Caleb Williams. But I
Gabe:And his pick his pick this year was Colson Loveland of Michigan.
Clark:Of course. Yes. Yeah. So a very, know, offense heavy, you know Mhmm. A lot of potential there.
Clark:I don't care. I I think that at the end of the day, he's going to have to adjust. You know, you can look at no one's talking about Aaron Glenn. He was equally as valuable for the Lions Yeah. And no one's talking about how the Jets I mean, is up there for coach of the year, but no one's talking you know, the competition is Ben Johnson.
Clark:Ben Johnson, Ben Johnson. Yeah. Aaron Glenn was equally as pivotal for the Lions defense, you know, especially when there was no one there on the Lions defense. So I think that Ben Johnson I'm not
Gabe:saying he's overrated because I loved him when he was on the Lions. Of course. But I think that people are looking over the fact that it could be someone else. Going back to Mike Vabel because we could talk about Ben Johnson and why he won't do well for hours. But, yeah, he's favorite in 11 games this year.
Gabe:They brought in Stefon Diggs and what you and I, and I'm sure a lot of other people believe the steal of the draft. Mhmm. Travion Henderson, of course. And he holds a currently number nine defense in the league. Five of the last 10 for those maybe not math people, that's 50% of coach of the years or the past ten years were first year head coaches, and, obviously, Variable's been allowed Variable has been around for a long time.
Gabe:Excuse me. But this is, you know, his first year with the Patriots. Obviously, disappointing last year under Gerard Mayo. But but, yeah, it was a Bill Belichick vouched higher, and that that that phrase meant more before they got whooped on national television television by TCU on Monday night. But he fits, you know, he fits the culture well.
Gabe:New England, Bill Belichick, you know, said, you know, this is the guy. Even that was not being a part of the organization, he said bring this guy in. So I trust Bill with my life, of course. You know who else I trust in my life? My MVP pick.
Gabe:Joe Yes. That's right. Yep. Tell me about Joe Burrow, Clark.
Clark:Well, you know, I don't think we have to stay on this topic for long because we went over Chase. And who is throwing to Chase? Joe Burrow. If Yeah. Jamar Chase is going to get offensive player of the year, it's gonna be through the help of Joe
Gabe:Burrow. Yeah.
Clark:And Joe Burrow also has great weapons. You know, if he had a terrible offensive team, you know, of course he's not gonna probably win. You know, Joe Burrow, he was I think he was asked in an interview last year, do you think you deserve MVP? And he said no because he didn't win enough games. At the end of the day, that is that's what is going to show MVP.
Gabe:And that was a PR answer because the true answer is yes, and the defense sucks. But anyway, continue, please. Sure.
Clark:But in in order for him to get MVP, well, they're gonna have to win more games. Yeah. And let's be honest, it's gonna be heavily reliant on the offense. I think that if they make it to the playoffs, absolutely win a playoff game. Oh.
Clark:There he's he's cruising, especially because I guarantee I mean, he could have 5,000 yards this season damn near easily.
Gabe:Let me speak to that real quick. Joe Burrow, obviously, offseason secured his weapons because Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both got their bag. So that just tells you what? That that they're on the offense. The offense.
Gabe:They're investing in Joe Burrow Yes. Basically. I have my second point here is the Bengals defense is so bad. The one thing that could hurt a quarterback's chance of MVP is if they get too far ahead in games and they, you know, they sit on the bench. You won't have to worry about that with Joe Burrow this year.
Gabe:I mean, preseason. Let me take you back to about a month ago or so. You know what I'm talking about against the Commanders? Joe Burrow was running for his life on every single play, still marched down the field, get touchdown, and then four plays, 75 yards, all rushing. Commander's offense just storms down the field, and that's good offense, whatever.
Gabe:Bengals defense is in the rough spots, the same spot as last year. Offensive line, also in a rough spot. Agree or disagree with this statement. If the Bengals find a top seed in the AFC this year or simply make the playoffs, which you touched on you touched on, it will be on the shoulders of Joe Burrow. To me, this makes him the most valuable player in the league.
Gabe:I agree. Good. Good. Because I think that's absolutely correct. Like you said, if if they have any success this year, it's gonna rely on Joe Burrow.
Gabe:He's gonna put the Bengals organization Onto his shoulders. His shoulders. Yeah. He might have some back pain at the end of the year, whether that be from carrying the team or, you know, his offensive line not blocking. But but to me, that's, by definition, that's the most valuable player in the league, someone who leads their team.
Gabe:Speaking of leading teams, the playoffs, we both wanna pick a plus odd teams to make the playoffs, and Clark's pick here is what my number one pick would be, but I didn't wanna have too many similar picks. So tell me about the New England Patriots, and I'll talk about mine.
Clark:Well, you know, I don't think I actually have to talk about the Patriots for too long because we talked a long time about Yeah. Vrabel. So I'm going to just say Patriots, they're plus one sixty. Yeah. I think that is a steal.
Clark:With their cushy schedule, great potential of a team, I think that, yes, the Patriots will make the playoffs.
Gabe:And Drake May is is, you know, overshadowed by because last year was such a great quarterback class, of course, Kayla Williams, Jane Daniels, Boonex, for any Bully or Bruce out there, shout out, of course. But but yeah.
Clark:I'd also like to add, just to clarify, they won't win the division because the Bills
Gabe:Because the Bills
Clark:win the division. But they will easily have an a wildcard I shouldn't say easily. But they will have a wildcard spot in my eyes, and I think they will make the playoffs.
Gabe:But yeah. Like I said, I'll touch on this quickly, but they're favorite in 11 games. Even if they only get to 10, even if they only win 10 of those, that's good enough for a wildcard spot in the AFC. And we've kinda seen a shift over the past couple years, to be honest with you. The NFC is kinda starting to be a bit of a better division with the NFC North and the Eagles and the NFC East, of course.
Gabe:So I think 10 enough is certainly good enough, if not nine, to make it into playoffs in the AFC side of the ball. I will be bringing up an NFC team. You wanna you wanna take a guess who my value pick here is to make the playoffs? I'm gonna think
Clark:it's NFC South. That would be Yeah.
Gabe:Yeah. Yeah. You're absolutely correct.
Clark:In my eye, it would be the Falcons.
Gabe:Wow. Wow. Look at me. That's and I promise I did not tell him that. Plus $1.55 odds, and and I think it's I think it's one of those things where it's like the only reason why they're not favored to make it in playoffs is because the NFC is actually really good this year.
Gabe:You know, I could easily see three teams in the NFC North making it into the playoffs. But, yeah, plus one fifty five odds, Michael Penix Junior is ready for a great year under one of the best mentors you could possibly have as a backup right now, Kirk Cousins. And it seems wild that Kirk Cousins is not a starting starting quarterback in the NFL right now, but he seems fit with Atlanta for the moment. Penix has weapons. Kyle Pitts well, That was a crazy that was a crazy sentence right there, but, but it's just Kyle Pitts.
Gabe:And I On paper. On paper. Yeah. On paper, Kyle Pitts is one of the best tight ends in the league right now. So, he has Drake London and Darnell Mooney.
Gabe:Not people not enough people talk about how great Darnell was last year, but really good option. And then Bijan and Tyler Algy are a bunch of Texas guys that, is one of the probably top three running back duo in the league right now. Obviously, behind maybe the Eagles and the Lions. We won't get into that. But, the weakest part of their team last year was their pass rush, which ranked twenty ninth in the league.
Gabe:To fix that problem, they bring in James Pierce junior out of Tennessee who fell in the draft and Jalen Walker out of Georgia, hometown boy. Shout out Atlanta, of course. They have the 28 twentieth easiest strength to schedule. I could easily see them winning the NFC South this year, but most likely a wildcard spot, and I believe that that's a good pick.
Clark:And I would like to just add very quickly, I don't know where I saw it, but four teams that were in the playoffs last year are it's like, just on average, four teams will not make the playoffs the next year. Absolutely. So you should always be looking at what team can fill that spot. You can also be looking at what teams won't make that spot. Of course, like the Chargers or the Texans, they might they might not make the playoff.
Clark:I I think the Chargers will, but the Texans, you know, you can you can make a case for why they may not make
Gabe:it. Yeah.
Clark:They do have a cushy division, but, you know, after a okay season from Stroud last year, you never know where that can go.
Gabe:The Texans offensive line comes in at thirty seconds thirty second this year, excuse me, and, and then that was I was honestly looking at division, and I have no idea who's gonna win the AFC South this year. I did not wanna touch that because, yeah, at least with the NFC South, we've kinda seen success from the Buccaneers and the Falcons. Yeah. Last year, Falcons missed it by one game, but the Colts on paper should be a middle of the pack team. The Jaguars should be a middle of the pack team.
Gabe:The Titans with Cam Ward could be middle of pack team, and the Texans should be better than a middle pack team, but I can see all of them being within one or two games throughout the year. It might be the most entertaining division of the year. Especially towards the end of the Not because they're all good, but because they're all not great, which is what we saw at the NFC South be the last couple years. Yeah. So moving on to the elite, The elite elite, and I have no idea who Clark picked here.
Gabe:Super Bowl picks, champion, let me know.
Clark:Okay. So I when I was given the, you know, the notes, I didn't think we were picking champion, but I can give you a champion. I don't know the odds on the champion.
Gabe:Were you did you pick teams to make it? I picked match ups. Okay, then just tell me that. Sure.
Clark:So I have two match ups, but the NFC team is consistent in both. Yes. It's gonna be the Eagles versus the Ravens, the Eagles versus the Bills. It sounds basic, but you know, let's be honest, alright?
Gabe:Mhmm.
Clark:When I was looking at it, Eagles versus Ravens was plus 1,900 odds, Eagles versus Bills was plus 2,000 odds. And I was looking at it. Alright? I actually I did a lot of I didn't do in-depth analysis, but I did enough analysis for me to be proud of myself.
Gabe:Yeah. The bare minimum is the standard around here, guys. So on the AFC side,
Clark:Ravens are the favorites, then the Bills, then the Chiefs. Ravens are plus three forty to make the Super Bowl, while the Chiefs are plus four twenty. So that is a plus 80 odds difference between the three teams. It and you would I agree. It could be a coin flip between the three of them.
Clark:So whatever. A three sided die. Whatever it is. Not a coin flip. On the NFC side, you've got four teams.
Clark:You've got the Eagles, and this was this was I wrote these down yesterday. This is about a week after the Parsons trade. Yeah. You've got the Eagles, Packers, Lions,
Gabe:and 49ers. And the Packers are favored. That according to sports books across the board, whether it's to win the NFC, win the NFC North, the Super Bowl playoffs, whatever, the Packers are are ahead of the Lions right now. Just wanna point that out.
Clark:And so when I wrote down these odds, it was plus three eighty Eagles. Packers and Lions were both plus 600, and then 49ers were plus eight fifty. So when you look at that, I'll go with 49ers and or sorry, Eagles and the Lions. That's three eighty to 600. That is a two twenty difference.
Clark:Right? When you look at the AFC, it's only a plus 80 odd between the first and the third. And then if you wanna go on once the third odds change, which is plus eight fifty, you were looking at about 500 odd change. So what my conclusion is, is that on the NFC side you have a lot of good teams, lot of great teams, but you don't have dominant teams like you have an Eagles, alright? So I think that the Eagles are the only true dominant team that
Gabe:when you They are look at the Goliath right now in the NFC.
Clark:Of course they are coming off Super Bowl champion season, so I don't don't doubt that they can do it again, and they are my pick for Super Bowl champions again this year, And I think they're gonna so I think that's because there's a drop off between dominant teams and whatever. And then when you look at the AFC, you've got three dominant teams and then it drops off. So you're really just picking between the Eagles, the Ravens, the Bills, and the Chiefs. And I for my pick, if I had to pick one for the matchup, I think it's gonna be Eagles Ravens, but preferably Eagles, Bills.
Gabe:Dirty Birds out there. Yeah. Well, Dirty Birds is Atlanta, but you get my point. Yeah. I mean, I kinda have right now is that, in one of my notes is that the NFC will run through Philadelphia unless otherwise proven through poor play or injuries, and I can't see them having poor play.
Gabe:Mhmm. You know, you you break down that offense. Okay. Jalen Hurts, you know, Super Bowl winner, national champion, albeit got pulled at halftime. But then okay.
Gabe:Alright. We'll defend, you know, we'll kinda, you know, we had a quarterback spy. Alright. Alright. Well, yeah, Saquon Barkley.
Gabe:Okay. We'll load the box, and our guys will win on the outside. So okay. Well, we got AJ Brown over here, so we'll have safety help over the top. So oh, wait.
Gabe:We got DeVonte Smith on the other side of the field. We're starting to run out of guys. We'll leave the tight end open. It's like, Dallas Goddard's back. Right?
Gabe:And then it's like, okay. Well, we'll just, you know, we'll just we'll just pray. And then it's like the, you know, it gets really unholy in the trench battle that is the best offensive line in the league. So the Eagles on paper right now should win the Super Bowl, and I pick the Lions. I pick the Lions every year.
Gabe:You know, don't that's not betting advice. Do not pick the Lions. I just pick them every year because one of these years in my lifetime
Clark:You do.
Gabe:One of one of these years in my lifetime, they had I have to be right. So, well, I guess technically I don't have to be because some people have lived their entire life without seeing the Lions. They've already gone but without but to the credit of the Lions, I think they're they're They're there. They're there. Yeah.
Gabe:They they're still in the window and They're
Clark:in the top three Mozarts.
Gabe:I have I have on on paper, I think they're on par talent wise with the Eagles, and I truly believe that, you know, there is some bias there. Obviously, hometown guys, but the lions play Philadelphia week 11 in Lincoln Financial Field.
Clark:That'll define. That that's that might be a preview for the NFC championship.
Gabe:Exactly. Because we expect the NFC to run through Philadelphia. Clark, what's the only thing harder than beating a team once? Beating it twice. They say that's nearly impossible to do in sports, especially in one with so little games like football.
Gabe:So the Eagles could have the Lions number week 11.
Clark:Except LeBron beat a team four times in a row to win the
Gabe:twenty sixteen finals. Well, it wasn't oh, yeah. It was. It was four times in a row.
Clark:Yeah. I did the math. You can go back in the recording. I was doing the math in my head before I said it. I wanna make sure I was right.
Gabe:I think I think in that statistic, LeBron James is probably an outlier if I had to guess as he is
Clark:in every Barkley is also an outlier.
Gabe:Are you comparing Saquon Barkley to LeBron James?
Clark:No. Okay. But in all fairness, you can't have longevity in the NFL like you can with That's true. If you look at the
Gabe:That's true.
Clark:The LeBron of running backs?
Gabe:Well, the LeBron the LeBron of football is Tom Brady because the GOAT status and the longevity. So
Clark:When I say of running backs. Does that mean nothing to you?
Gabe:Oh, my fault. Anyway, obviously you've got Barry Sanders and Walter Payton. No, but Barry Sanders cut his career short. Sure. I think the the long the the longevity of running backs is Derrick Henry because he's been doing it for so long, obviously.
Gabe:But does
Clark:he have a Super Bowl? No. But Does he did he go to the Super Bowl six times and win six times?
Gabe:I'm sorry. That was that was Jordan, dude. What are you talking about? I'm sorry. Okay.
Clark:Okay. Or did he go to the Super Bowl 10 times and only win four of them?
Gabe:It's pretty incredible if you think about it. Like, LeBron has been to the finals 10 times. Right. Anyway and realistically, the Super Bowl matchup this year will be a repeat of last year and and the Chiefs. So they're gonna come out of the tunnel, and the Chiefs are gonna be down.
Gabe:And then Taylor Swift's gonna sing at halftime, and then the Chiefs are gonna have a miraculous comeback on a BSPI call late in the fourth quarter. And Travis and Taylor actually can get married.
Clark:Yeah. Yeah. And instead of And they'll have the pope to
Gabe:Yes. Yeah. Yes. Yes. Or or Jerry Jones.
Gabe:Either one are gonna come out and get them married,
Clark:but Or Andy Reid, of course.
Gabe:Oh, yeah. I mean, the guy the guy just looks like just, you know, just like someone who could marry someone. You know? Sure. But but, yeah, I mean, I could see them.
Gabe:I could absolutely in all seriousness, I could see that repeating last year. Travis Kelce's last year script kinda lines up. But but, yeah, those are our picks for we had nine total awards. Mhmm. And Can we can we give a quick hand to sportsbooks?
Gabe:They're giving us nine different nine different things that we can bet on here preseason. Yeah.
Clark:Well, more than nine. We just picked out that
Gabe:big nine. Yeah. You just we could have kept talking about, you know, anything. Mhmm. But but, yeah, that's we'll see.
Gabe:You know, we'll play this back at the end of the year. See how well we did. Quick recap. Do you wanna go through Sure. Kinda who we're thinking here?
Gabe:Yeah. Let me just go back to the top. Defensive rookie of the year, we had kinda between Carter? Abdul Carter, and then my value pick was Mike Green. Offensive rookie of the year, we kinda both agree with Cameron Ward, and the my value pick was more Tyler Warren.
Gabe:Defensive player of the year, Jared Verse
Clark:for me.
Gabe:Jared Verse. I agree with that pick value wise, and then we talked about Ian Hutchinson, you know, assuming that, yeah, I mean, if you figure he's gonna win one of the two awards between defensive player and comeback, it just depends which one. Offensive player of the year, we're both in on Ja'Marr Chase, comeback player of the year, Hutch, You know? He's gotta get that one. Hutch.
Gabe:Yeah. That's all I that's that's my note. It's Hutch. Coach of the year, Mike Vable. Get it done, Patriots.
Gabe:You know? Years past, excited excited to watch Patriots lose ball games. Now I kinda want them to win because I like Drake May, and I believe in Mike Vaibel, and I believe that he can make me money this year. MVP, Joe Burrow to stack with the offensive player of the year and plus odds teams to make the playoffs while we're in on the Patriots this year. We are.
Gabe:Between Trevy and Henderson, Mike Raybull And the Patriots, I mean. And just the Patriots organization. That's right. Super Bowl picks.
Clark:I said Eagles. Eagles to win.
Gabe:Yeah. Fly, Eagles, fly. Fly, Eagles, That's right. And then, of course, I pick the Detroit Lions. And, yeah, I'll most likely be wrong about that.
Gabe:I would hope. I would hope that You would hope that you're not wrong. Yeah. I would hope I'm hoping that I'm not wrong, but but I will most likely be wrong. But, yeah, any any final thoughts?
Gabe:Just give a quick just give a quick touchdown tonight, and who do think is gonna win?
Clark:Saquon and Eagles.
Gabe:Okay. Yeah. I mean, that's chalk
Clark:right there. But that's also what have in my bet. I actually have Eagles to win by seven.
Gabe:Really? Okay. Yeah. Gruden has them winning by 11, and I trust that guy of my life. So, the guy knows ball.
Gabe:Like, know this ball. And we're we're getting there. You know, we're climbing that ladder. We're the bottom rung right now. One day, we'll be at the top with Jonathan Gruden.
Gabe:But but I would personally like to thank everyone for listening to this inaugural inaugural Yeah. Inaugural inaugural inaugural inaugural. It's a good thing it's a good thing that I'm not going into, like, broadcasting or podcast or anything because I have a tough time saying words, but I would like to thank you all for listening to me fumble over my words. In this inaugural episode of the Hedge and Bet podcast for the twenty five, '20 six season, we hope to be bringing you at least one a week covering fancy football and sports betting across the globe. Global reach, the Hedging the Bet podcast has now.
Gabe:And, Clark, I'd like to thank you for coming on.
Clark:Thank you for having me.
Gabe:Of course. And, that being said, stay sharp and keep hedging your bets.