Arctos x Teddy Sin - Coffee Break, Market Take

What is Arctos x Teddy Sin - Coffee Break, Market Take?

Every morning, in the time it takes to drink a coffee, Teddy walks through yesterday's markets: US indices, the Nikkei, gold, oil and Malaysia. What moved, and which way the pressure leans. Market education, not financial advice.

This is my AI voice. The script comes from my market research system, and a person checks it before it goes out. It's education, not personal investment advice.

Good morning. Teddy here.

It's Saturday, the thirty-first of October. Stock markets are closed today. Only crypto trades over the weekend. So this morning we look back at Friday's US and European sessions, which closed overnight, and then we look at a very busy week ahead.

Let me start with an assumption most of us hold. If a company has a good AI story, the stock is safe. Friday said otherwise.

Intel fell about twenty-nine percent in one day. That is its worst day since nineteen seventy-four. The company gave a weak forecast for the fourth quarter and said the slowdown in PC sales should continue at least through the first half of next year. Amazon also reported. Its free cash flow over the past twelve months came in at minus forty-two point four billion dollars. Most of that money went into AI spending.

The Nasdaq Composite closed two point eight six percent lower, at twenty-five thousand, four hundred and thirty-seven. For October it lost about five point two percent. That is its worst month since March last year. The Dow fell one point zero nine percent. The S&P 500 fell one point eight two percent. Nearly seventy percent of US stocks closed lower.

Here is the point. Nobody said AI demand has gone away. What changed is the question. Before, investors asked how much a company spends on AI. Now they ask who pays for it, and when the money comes back. When the question changes, prices adjust. That is all Friday was.

Asia felt it first. The Nikkei closed Friday two point one two percent lower, at sixty-three thousand, two hundred and ninety. Hong Kong went the other way. The Hang Seng closed one point four six percent higher, on bargain buying in tech. And at home, the KLCI closed up zero point two eight percent at one thousand, six hundred and fifteen point six, lifted by banks.

Second topic. Oil.

Brent touched one hundred and seventeen dollars and eighty-four cents on Friday. That is the highest since late April. A tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. And US officials briefed President Trump on military options for Iran. Reports say any action could come after the midterm elections on Tuesday. Oil is heading for a fourth monthly gain of more than ten percent. Seven OPEC producers meet on Sunday to review output.

Higher oil also helped palm oil. The January contract on Bursa settled at four thousand, six hundred and eighty-one ringgit, up sixty-five. High stock levels in Malaysia kept the gain small.

Third topic. The Fed.

The Fed held rates on Wednesday. Then on Friday, two Fed officials said rates likely need to rise to bring inflation down. Gold did not like that. Gold futures fell three point six three percent, to three thousand, eight hundred and eighty-four dollars.

Fourth topic. Crypto.

Binance confirmed a hack of about six point three billion dollars. That is the largest on record. Bitcoin fell to about seventy-six thousand, seven hundred dollars late Friday, and lost more than seven percent in October. Bitcoin is the only market open this weekend, so watch how it behaves before stocks reopen.

Now the week ahead. Three things matter most.

One. The US midterm elections on Tuesday. Results start coming in on Wednesday morning, Malaysia time.

Two. Iran. If there is military action after the election, oil and stocks can move fast, and Monday morning can open with a gap.

Three. The US jobs report on Friday at nine thirty at night, Malaysia time. The market expects about fifty-five thousand new jobs. A weak number could cool the hike talk. A strong one could add to it.

In between, there is the ISM manufacturing report on Monday night, the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday, and the Bank of England on Thursday. Also note that US clocks change on Sunday, so US data arrives one hour later for us. Japan is closed on Tuesday.

I have paid tuition in weeks like this. I once sat too big into a headline I could not control, and the market decided my account for me. The fix was boring. Smaller size. A stop set before the news, not after. The money you keep for school fees or a family trip should not ride on one election night.

So this weekend, open your chart. Check the candles. Check the direction. Check the momentum. Then decide your size while the screen is quiet.

This is educational market commentary, not personal financial advice. No outcome is guaranteed. Markets carry risk of loss. Size your risk before any trade.

Survive first. See you tomorrow.