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- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com
- Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com
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- Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com
Creators and Guests
What is Closing Market Report?
Celebrating 40 Years | 10,000 Episodes
Established 1985
The Closing Market Report airs weekdays at 2:06pm central on WILL AM580, Urbana. University of Illinois Extension Farm Broadcaster Todd Gleason hosts the program. Each day he asks commodity analysts about the trade in Chicago, delves deep into the global growing regions weather, and talks with ag economists, entomologists, agronomists, and others involved in agriculture at the farm and industry level.
website: willag.org
twitter: @commodityweek
From the Lend to Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the October 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzlow at globalcomresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. Mike also joined us for commodity week, which was recorded yesterday afternoon along with Shane Holtorf of Logic Ag Marketing.
Todd Gleason:He's from Alta, Iowa, and Colin Waters of the Illinois Corn Growers Association. Of course, overnight, the Chinese taking some action as it's related to trade. President Trump, not happy about that, has responded. The marketplace tumbled today. We'll try to figure that all out as we make our way through this edition of the closing market report from Illinois public media as well as commodity week.
Todd Gleason:And I'll remind you to visit our website at willag.org where you can sign up for the December 12 farm assets conference. It's not that far away, and there are a limited number of seats for this particular conference. You'll want to sign up earlier rather than later, But make sure you listen to today's program because we have a lot of ground to cover right here from Illinois Public Media.
announce:Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason:December corn for the day settled at $4.13, 5 at a quarter lower. The March down five at $4.29. November beans at 10 o six and three quarters, 15 and a half lower. And the January at $10.23 and a quarter finished 15 and a quarter lower. Wheat futures were off 8¢ for the soft red and six and three quarters for the hard red.
Todd Gleason:Mike Zuzlow now joins us from globalcomresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. Oh, how things can change in an overnight from the time we recorded and talked yesterday for commodity week until the time we recorded today, at least in terms of what's happening in the global marketplace, China overnight saying that they will impose extra port fees on US ships starting October 14. Of course, The United States will be on the same date imposing port fees on incoming ships. We had some discussions about that early in the spring, and those are, not ships, generally speaking, that carry, grains and oilseeds, but rather that are carrying goods, for the most part. So I don't think that's something that will really impact soybeans directly, as they're outgoing, or even the ships that would be carrying them that were coming in to begin with.
Todd Gleason:But the marketplace certainly reacted. What did you make of it today when it's, the news broke and the soybean market began to break?
Mike Zuzolo:Yeah. This you know, it's interesting, Todd, because when we did commodity week on Thursday afternoon, it felt like that the rhetoric between the two countries ahead of the end of the month meeting between The US and Chinese president presidents of both countries at the APEC meeting in South Korea was deteriorating, and frustration seemed to be building. That's kinda how I read the tea leaves as far as before the big news broke. Now having said that, we did already know about China restricting even further the rare earth exports, and that has been a very touchy subject with president Trump just as sub touchy as not purchasing any US soybeans. And so that did make me feel very nervous about the ability of beans to continue on higher.
Mike Zuzolo:And that's kinda how I felt before Friday's news broke about president Trump not only saying, I I don't even know if I need to meet with him and that, China's actions are, quote, hostile. Whenever you do that that kind of a direct confrontational, talk like you like he did with Asia, and I know he I'm sure he does it on purpose. It it tends to really put them in a corner and put kinda egg on their face, and they really don't like it. And so I I do think the rhetoric got heated up enough at the end of the week. It made sense why we gave back the gains, you know, after hitting a seven week low.
Mike Zuzolo:What was it? Just a week ago or so after the grain stocks stocks report, we're able to make new three week highs. This week, got up to $10.30 in beans, and it just kinda washed all away by Friday's close. But we didn't lose the $10 handle. And as we talked about on commodity week, there are some basis moves that are happening right now, that are worth watching.
Mike Zuzolo:Spreads are worth watching. So I don't wanna come into Friday's close with a doom and gloom attitude. I actually thought that it was help very helpful that while the crude oil was the biggest loser along with wheat, it was really helpful that the dollar stayed weak. And I think that's something that we can sink our teeth into maybe when we come back from the weekend.
Todd Gleason:In past days, this kind of trade row, this kind of talk probably would have meant total and complete tumult, maybe even a lockdown limit day, particularly for soybeans. It's not even close to that. That seems like relatively good news out of a bad situation. Corn down somewhere between 4 and 5¢, I suppose. Not awful given that we're in the middle of harvest, and hedge pressure could have done that much damage in a single day, I would think.
Mike Zuzolo:Yeah. I agree. And I I think here again, we saw the crude oil market make a new monthly low. The soft red wheat market was just about 3¢ from testing its near four year low all the way back down at $4.93 and a half, and it could have been a lot rougher on row crops that were in the midst of harvest, especially given the speedy planting pace that Brazil has. One thing that I think is is something we can't get around and and it kind of undeniable at this point because of what happened Friday, I think I'll put a finer point on it because we did talk about this also on commodity week is the idea that when you see news stories that Russia is gonna pull back their wheat plantings for 2026, five to 6% in favor of oilseeds.
Mike Zuzolo:When you see The United States bail out and from sheer and true economic collapse, Argentina's economy with $20,000,000,000 of of bonds essentially given to them, at at a cost, but essentially given to them. You I think you know in agriculture and producers are not shocked at this point when I talk to them about this is a long game that we're gonna have to play here. This is not gonna end in 2025, I don't think magically, and we're gonna have to carry all the way this all the way through into 2026. And like the mid nineties when we lost a lot of Asian business, like the mid twenty tens, 2018, I was actually looking at some University of Illinois commentary from Todd Todd Hubs this afternoon because I was looking at the bean chart, noticed how in June 2018, it just collapsed. And I was looking at my stuff and stuff from the University of Illinois and going back and remembering what happened then.
Mike Zuzolo:We're not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination, but you're right. We could have had a lot worse situation on Friday. Now time is of the essence to heal things up again. Now as we've talked about a million times before, seems we need wheat and corn to come in here and take the beans by the hand and say, you're done going down. You don't need to go lower than $10 especially ahead of the November 1 notice day at the end of this month.
Mike Zuzolo:There's a big disparity between cash beans and futures, and we want the cash market to go up and the futures to stay where it's at, not the other way around.
Todd Gleason:Is there enough domestic demand for soybeans being developed as it's related to biofuels, renew renewable diesel, particularly in crush, and enough total demand for corn that maybe there might be some kind of floor that we can continue to manage to hold?
Mike Zuzolo:I I actually think that's the shorter path to bringing demand back. Another way, I think, was shown this week when the bean oil market rallied seemingly pretty much by surprise was when Indonesia said they're gonna go ahead with b 50 biodiesel and get rid of essentially phase out their imports of regular diesel, carbon diesel. That really could open up the soybean oil export market just in and of itself as a food commodity. But, yes, I I felt like we had a chance at seeing some good biofuel news coming out of our meeting with Canada. We didn't get that.
Mike Zuzolo:The Keystone XL pipeline must have been, in my mind, one of the stumbling blocks. But I truly am at a point now after reading forty years worth of soybean demand and the path that Brazil is on and the infrastructure that China and Brazil have built together over the last ten to twelve years, I really think that's the future if we're gonna be able to insulate ourselves from shock prices to the downside because of trade.
Todd Gleason:Hey. Thanks much. We'll hear more from you in commodity week. Do recall that that was recorded yesterday afternoon. Mike Zuzlow is with globalcomresearch.com.
Todd Gleason:He is out of Atchison, Kansas. Let's take a look at the weather forecast now. Eric Snodgrass is here from Nutrien Ag Solutions in Daggerville. Hi. Happy Friday to you.
Todd Gleason:Thanks for being with us.
Eric Snodgrass:Yeah. Thanks for having me on again, Todd.
Todd Gleason:Let's start, with the rains and the cool down that just happened across the Corn Belt. Tell me about that situation.
Eric Snodgrass:Well, a lot of us in Central Illinois got leapfrogged by the system earlier in the week. So there's plenty of heavier rain in Northern Illinois and parts of Iowa, Wisconsin. Then there was better rains in Far Southern Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, and pockets of Indian, Ohio. But, you know, what could have been a great rainfall event to kinda just bat down all of the dust and the dirt, you know, for my house was 17 hundredths of an inch. And so we were kinda open for a little bit more than, than just that.
Eric Snodgrass:But, you know, there was a cold front that came through. We're feeling a bit more like fall right now, but, that's not gonna last too long. And unfortunately, for the next, seven days or so, we go back over drier and we start to see a a warming trend return, which is gonna continue to make this, fall drought time period worse for us in the near term. So, it's it's nice to get the cooler weather in place, but, you know, we need to get some moisture. And I understand, Todd, that that would definitely interrupt harvest.
Eric Snodgrass:And I had a phone call this morning with Matt Bennett who is literally sitting in his combine while we were chatting. And and he's like, when's gonna rain? Because I got just this much to finish up. And I said, well, you're gonna be fine, Matt. You've got plenty of time.
Eric Snodgrass:So that's the question. Are we gonna be battling rainfall as we get further into harvest this year?
Todd Gleason:And the answer is, apparently, no.
Eric Snodgrass:I think. Yeah. Well, it's it's no for the next seven days. But alright. There's something cool cooking over in Siberia.
Eric Snodgrass:Now you're going, alright. Why why are we talking about Siberia? Okay. One of the big birthplaces of weather in the Northern Hemisphere is between Siberia, Mongolia, China, and the Himalayan Mountains. The other big birthplace is around Indonesia, the big island archipelago there in Southeast Asia.
Eric Snodgrass:Now why are those two places important? Well, we almost always have huge storms erupting over Indonesia. It's a tropical rainforest. Mean, it just pumps out heat and moisture into the upper atmosphere. And then you contrast that with how cold it can get in Siberia, which so far in the month of October has an excess of snowfall.
Eric Snodgrass:So what does all that mean? We have really tightened up the polar temperature gradient in that part of the world. And guess what? That is where our jet stream that goes across the Pacific. That's where it's born.
Eric Snodgrass:And it's starting to gain momentum. It has been it has lost momentum since last August, which is why we've or excuse me, since this August, which is the last, you know, sixty days, mainly because there was no good flow leaving that part of the world. Well, it's returning. And what we noticed is that over the next two weeks, the the the speed of the jet stream across the Pacific picks up. And long story short, just like we saw in 2024, the flip from October to November could be pretty well, the compare and contrast, it'll compare very well.
Eric Snodgrass:But the contrasting from what we've seen so far will be huge. And I think what that means is we're gonna start to see better chances for rainfall. So if you have opportunities to finish this harvest fast, do it because I think the windows are gonna start to tighten up when we approach the end of the month of October.
Todd Gleason:Interesting because this all comes in the face of what I think has been an expanding drought in the Lower 48?
Eric Snodgrass:Yeah. It's pretty bad. We have seen since August 1, like I said, when that when the pattern lost all its momentum and the Bermuda high, you know, drifted so far to the East, we've seen a 30% increase in drought area across the Lower 48. And a lot of that's been here in the state of Illinois and surrounding states. And by the way, that drifting Bermuda high, I had a question earlier this week when I was giving a talk in Chicago.
Eric Snodgrass:This this is all the predictions were for really active hurricane season. What the heck happened? I'm like, well, it's been active. It's just not here. And, I mean, we have Karen spinning out in the open ocean right now, Jerry spinning out in the open ocean, and they're not coming anywhere close to The US Coast because the Bermuda high is so far gone.
Eric Snodgrass:Now there is a nor'easter going up the East Coast this weekend, and I'm also wondering if that's maybe a a bit of a telltale sign of maybe the way winter might shape up. So many of us are are thinking that this winter could be one of those winters that, you know, actually brings in good moisture and possibly relieve some drought conditions right now because we can relieve drought in winter if you're South Of I-eighty. Our freeze thaw cycle is is enough that you can get water into the soil. North Of I-eighty, it doesn't happen too efficiently. So I don't know, Todd.
Eric Snodgrass:It's shaping up to be a very interesting fall and winter once we get this momentum back in the pattern.
Todd Gleason:No. We will be paying close attention to it with you. We'll be paying actually closer attention to South America all winter with you, trying to get updates on how the, forecasts are going for the beginning of their growing season and throughout the season. So what's happening there today?
Eric Snodgrass:Well, they've been a bit drier for the last ten to fifteen days, but this was well forecast. And I'm anticipating when I get the numbers later on this afternoon on Friday from Mato Grosso that they're gonna still be at the top end of their five year distribution on planting progress. Because most of them are anticipating that the European model is right, which means near perfect rains are expected to return after another four or five days of drier weather. So if those rains come in, that's gonna be perfect for germination, which means they're gonna wanna go hard to get the crop finished and planted before they arrive. And it's, but we're back into a model battle time.
Eric Snodgrass:So the GFS is no, no, no, no rain. The European says here's perfect rain. And everyone's asking me, one do you trust? And I said, I'm just gonna go off statistics. And that would be the European model tends to be the the the higher statistically performing model.
Eric Snodgrass:When we look really long term though, Todd, the thing to watch this this upcoming summer for them will be to see if the typical La Nina precipitation pattern sets up. That would be drier in Far Southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina. And if that's the case, the whole of South America total production could be cut back while Brazil makes headwinds and get you know, makes headway, excuse me, and gets, you know, more acres in and better production. I think Argentina may be able to pull it back a bit if they do settle into drought, which is typical of La Nina.
Todd Gleason:Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next week.
Eric Snodgrass:Yeah. Sounds good.
Todd Gleason:Eric Snodgrass is with NutriNAG Solutions and Agrabal joined us on this Friday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois, a public media. It's public radio for the farming world. For those of you who can stay with us for the whole of the hour on our home station, you'll hear our commodity week program that's coming up next. Otherwise, you can find it online again at willag.org, willag.0rg, and many of these radio stations will carry it over the weekend, or look for it by name, commodity week in your favorite podcast applications. Now if you visit our website at willag.org, at the top of the page, you'll also find information and a way to register for the upcoming farm assets conference that's December 12 at the Agricenter in Bloomington Illinois a new site for us this year and we have a great lineup for you we'll talk about fundamentals of the marketplace for both crops and livestock.
Todd Gleason:We'll take a look at crop budgets, trade transportation, and the global grain markets, any kinds of demand that might be on the horizon particularly as it relates to biofuels and biomanufacturing. We'll also take a look at ag policies from an objective perspective and we'll talk about some of the muddy boots kinds of things that you might consider as it relates to crop science coming up in the next growing season for weeds as well as agronomics including how to make the most out of your nitrogen applications whether they're made this fall or next spring and we'll wrap it up by taking a look at how the leadership in the state around research and outreach work together to bring to you the best possible outcomes for the farm community. That's the farm assets conference you can register today on our website at wilag.org that's willag.0rg. It's December 12 in Bloomington, Illinois. You've been listening to the closing market report.