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Every morning, in the time it takes to drink a coffee, Teddy walks through yesterday's markets: US indices, the Nikkei, gold, oil and Malaysia. What moved, and which way the pressure leans. Market education, not financial advice.
This is my AI voice. The script comes from my market research system, and a person checks it before it goes out. It's education, not personal investment advice.
Good morning. Teddy here. It's Monday, the ninth of November.
Most people saw Friday's bounce on the Nasdaq and breathed out. I understand that. But a green day of 1.1% after a red day of 5.5% is not a repair. It is a pause. And this week, the pause runs straight into a big test on Tuesday night.
Let me walk you through what happened, then what to watch. Three topics today, plus a quick scan.
First, the AI and chip selloff. Last Thursday, the fifth of November, was the Nasdaq's worst day in nineteen months. It fell 5.5% to 24,315. The chip index fell about 12% in a single session. The trigger was the US midterm elections. Democrats won both the House and the Senate. Voters in several places also backed limits on new data centres. So the market started to price in tighter rules on the very buildings that AI runs on.
On Friday, the Nasdaq bounced 1.1% to close at 24,579. But it still lost 3.4% for the week. That is its fourth weekly fall in a row. Over the weekend, Bloomberg reported that Microsoft is winding back some AI computing leases from Oracle. That keeps the question alive. Is the AI spending boom slowing down?
Japan felt it hardest. The Nikkei closed Friday down 5.96% at 57,435. For the week, it lost more than 9%. That is its worst week since March 2020. When the Nikkei opens at eight this morning, Malaysia time, it will be reacting to Friday's US bounce. So the pressure there is two-way. Hong Kong fell 1.3% on Friday, to around 24,480.
Second topic. The jobs report. On Friday, the US said it added 165,000 jobs in October. Economists expected about 65,000. Unemployment slipped to 4.1%. Strong jobs sound like good news. But for markets, it means the Fed has less reason to stay calm about inflation. Futures now price about a 77% chance that the Fed raises rates at its December meeting. A week ago, that was 72%.
The US ten-year yield ended the week at 4.86%. And here is the big one. US October inflation, the CPI, comes out on Tuesday at nine thirty at night, Malaysia time. If it runs hot, the pressure on yields and on tech stocks gets heavier. If it comes in soft, that pressure eases. I am not telling you which one it will be. Nobody knows. I'm telling you where the weight sits.
Third topic. Oil and gold moved in opposite directions. Oil had its steepest weekly fall since April 2020. West Texas crude settled at about 90 dollars and 35 cents a barrel, down 12.2% for the week. Brent sat near 98 dollars. The reason was hope that the US and Iran will move toward calmer relations after the election. If those talks break down, the risk premium can come back into oil very fast.
Gold, on the other hand, had its best week since August, up about 5%. December gold futures settled at 4,079 dollars and 50 cents. When stocks shake, money looks for somewhere quieter to sit.
Bitcoin did not get that safety bid. It closed Friday at about 75,747 dollars, down 3% for the week, and slipped under 76,000 on Saturday. Bitcoin ETFs saw about 1.28 billion dollars leave over five sessions.
Now a quick scan closer to home. The KLCI closed Friday at 1,616.58, down 1.17%. Losers beat gainers by more than three to one. Palm oil futures, as of Thursday's settle, were at 4,126 ringgit a tonne for November, pressured by record high Malaysian stocks. The palm oil board releases its October data on Tuesday. In Europe, the DAX fell 2.08% on Friday to 25,778.
So what do you take from all this?
Let me tell you something from my own history. Years ago, I added heavily to a position the day after a big bounce. I was sure the worst was over. It wasn't. That one decision cost me more than a year of family dinners out. I still remember the number.
So this week, keep it simple. Three things. Candles. Direction. Momentum. Look at your own chart before Tuesday night. Let the CPI show you where the pressure goes. Then decide. Not before.
Wednesday is Veterans Day in the US. The bond market is closed, but stocks trade. CoreWeave reports on Tuesday after the US close. Cisco and Applied Materials report on Thursday. US producer prices come on Friday night.
Read the pressure. Check your chart. Size your risk first.
This is educational market commentary, not personal financial advice. No outcome is guaranteed. Markets carry risk of loss, so size your risk before any trade.
Survive first. See you tomorrow.