Ep. 636 - Bonus: Unsettled Weather Brings Welcome Change to the Great Lakes and Beyond

On this special episode, Dr. Mike Brasher visits with Jay Anglin, DU Waterfowl 360 Migration Editor for the Great Lakes, and Mark Holley, chief meteorologist for WSAW-TV in Wausau, Wisconsin, about recent changes to weather conditions, bird movements, and hunter success across the Great Lakes. After a slow season across much of the region, Anglin reports that activity in Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio is finally “heating up” thanks to a weather system that is bringing colder temps and windier conditions. Holley gives the meteorological details around what’s driving the change and gives an optimistic report that we may see unsettled weather and colder temperatures continuing into early December. The timing couldn’t be better for southern and mid-latitude duck hunters! Happy Hunting, y’all!

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Creators & Guests

Host

Mike Brasher

DUPodcast Science Host

What is Ducks Unlimited Podcast?

Ducks Unlimited Podcast is a constant discussion of all things waterfowl; from in-depth hunting tips and tactics, to waterfowl biology, research, science, and habitat updates. The DU Podcast is the go-to resource for waterfowl hunters and conservationists. Ducks Unlimited is the world's leader in wetlands conservation.

Mike Brasher: Hey everybody, welcome back. I am your host on this episode, Dr. Mike Brasher, and we have a new thing here. Usually the person that we have on the line with us is being interviewed by Chris Jennings, one of the guys that had been with the podcast for a long period of time. And so I'm stepping in to talk with the guy that we visited with routinely and always had a great time with, and that is Jay Anglin, our Great Lakes Migration Editor for Waterfowl360. Jay, I've Been on with you, I think, once before, but it's really cool to be doing this here as the host.

Jay Anglin: It's good timing because we're finally seeing some migration kicking in around the Great Lakes.

Mike Brasher: Yeah, you are. Today is November 21st, and we have some weather. We have some weather across most of the country. The other thing that I will mention is that we did a little waterfowl weather live last week, and we had somebody reach out to us and say, hey, how about giving a little bit of love to the Great Lakes? That's what we're going to do now. You're always an awesome contributor to these kind of reports, and we're going to follow this up by talking with a meteorologist out of Wisconsin to kind of bring some additional kind of technical color to what's happening up there. But it sounds like, before we were talking, you were saying that you just got back from a hunt, you're seeing some birds, sounds like things have improved for you. Give us a bit of a rundown of How does how the season had been at least up until recent and then where are you now?

Jay Anglin: Well, you know, it's one of those seasons where um, and you know guys will say oh, there's just no birds. There's no birds You know, it's been so tough. It's not worth going the weather's too nice and it's been the same with deer season Everybody complains, but the guys that go out and do their due diligence have been doing really well. So um I would say in most areas the biggest problem is just a lack of weather to drive movement and so you know it's a trickle migration you have some early season migrants hanging further north uh than you know average um you know i hear guys say oh i saw blue and teal yesterday well you know i've i've i've had blue and teal coming in the decoys here at the end of the season at the end of december before so it's not unusual to see some oddballs here and there but The core of our mallards, of course, haven't come down, so you're talking about a mix of locals with a few non-local migrant birds that have moved in in some of these key areas. I'm in northern Indiana, but I stay on top of things throughout the region. Um, you know, I guess one standout for me is guys were talking about, you know, bagging a black ducks a month ago. Um, today the guys across from me got one, I saw two others. And so, um, you know, I, I think that's sort of indicative of some of that migration out of like Ontario, maybe Western Quebec. Um, where you get these ducks and they don't come in in these big push events where you get a nice night, little north wind, temp drops a little, and they just kind of hopscotch down the flyway. So that's been, to get to the point, that's been kind of the way things have been for maybe a month or so. But again, a lot of days, they just don't do a whole lot. They don't really have to. The air temp's good. There's plenty of food. So today, yesterday, the day before, things started ramping up. I've been on the river a lot fishing for steelhead, and that's been just going gangbusters because of the same conditions. The water temp drops. We get some, I would call it a fall rain, but cold rain kind of drives the fall run a little bit. Ducks started moving. I started seeing them when I was fishing, getting reports from buddies that are saying big pushes. I know, you know, Jeremy Ullman, you know, contributes quite a bit from my guide service to some of my reports over on St. Clair. He said yesterday was outstanding. Um, and he was pushing trips, you know a few weeks ago. He was pushing trips because of just the total lack of movement Um, and he kind of fell back on once the longtails show up on You know along that whole, you know sort of corridor there lake huron and to some degree st. Clair and the rivers but um He fell back on that but yesterday he just sent me a photo like 15 minutes ago of just a nice big pile of canvas backs and redheads and bluebills

Mike Brasher: I was going to ask you that. So I was on Lake St. Clair a few weeks ago. I can't remember if you and I have talked about this, but I have a buddy up there who has a cottage. His family has a cottage on Harsin's Island. I was there late October. And he said, historically, that's about the time that they start seeing some of the divers show up. But there were very few around. I think we saw some of the first flocks of divers while I was there. And so I was going to ask if you had heard If the divers finally did show up and start moving around and it sounds like they have so Um, yeah, I sound like i'm about three weeks late three four weeks late.

Jay Anglin: Yeah, so it is interesting, you know, I You know one of my very best friends one of my college roommates has a place on harsens and i've been hunting that since You know back in the early 90s and you know, I used to go consistently about the same time but I remember many years where halloween was like throw a dart at a dart board and just hit whatever you wanted to do. You could go to the bay, you could go to the draw and hunt the corn. But there was always something. And here, you know, these last few years, it seems like even calendar ducks Are milling further north now, they might not be seven eight hundred miles north. They might be a hundred or two hundred Um, but that's definitely what I heard from a lot of people who really focus on those big diver, you know Concentrations offshore on st. Clair, but it sounds like they're in and they're coming in Um, it's weird. The pipeline was very odd this year and for st. Clair and saginaw bay um, you know because a lot of times they get a lot of birds come through like northwest lake michigan up around um, You know the door county and and and wisconsin And there's other inland lakes some big inland lakes. They just weren't pushing birds through those areas I was in the up of michigan on the east side real early the second week of october Uh, we kind of focused on divers and we've got a few bluebills and um, uh redheads But what was interesting was is that we saw huge numbers offshore Um in some of those bays up there along the saint mary's corridor and the very northern most part of lake huron And it was a lot of redheads was a lot of scoters and few bluebills And normally those kind of you know start to build up there But a lot of times they just keep feeding the system down down down, you know in Saginaw Bay and St. Clair. And it just didn't seem like they were pushing all that hard. What's interesting is Lake Erie did pick up Western Basin, picked up a bunch of lesser scop pretty early. And I tend to think that maybe those birds that guys fall back on in some of the areas of Michigan and Wisconsin, I think they just jetted right through there and ended up right on Lake Erie. And why would you blame them? There's a huge population of quagga mussels and zebra mussels they can feast on.

Mike Brasher: So, Jay, I was up there in Northwest Ohio, well, it was right before I went on up to Lake St. Clair, and one of the observations that several people had made is there were a large number, an unusually large number of pintails hanging out in some of those areas, like Muddy Creek Bay, Sandusky Bay. Have you seen that? Have you heard those numbers of pintails continued, or have they kind of gotten on out of there maybe now with this colder weather?

Jay Anglin: I can't speak to the Ohio thing, but I do know that consistently for the last three to four years, we've had outstanding numbers of pintails throughout this region, this latitude. Northern Indiana, was it three years ago? I mean, there was days we saw more pintails than mallards. And pretty much any time you went out, you kind of expected to fill your You know fill out your your strap with some pintails, but that's really unusual I mean I grew up northern indiana and southern michigan and you know pintails special and and and here for the last few seasons It's it's kind of come to be expected but in ohio Because of those amazing wetland areas and big huge marshes um It seems that they're really becoming a major pintail, at least in recent seasons, a major pintail kind of hotspot. We could go down the rabbit hole with that on my opinion, as far as birds working down along the coast of Hudson Bay and Southern James Bay, and then be bopping on down into the Great Lakes. But definitely saw one today. I saw a couple the other day. I mean, they're not the numbers that We've had in recent years, but I suspect with this weather any stragglers, you know that backside of the pintail push I suspect we'll see him here in the next few days around here for sure And a lot of those birds will winter along with the blacks mallards here as long as they can tolerate it You know, what is the weather like there now and what uh?

Mike Brasher: I mean, is it still kind of unseasonably mild, even with this weather system that's coming in right now? We got some reinforcing cold, I think, coming in, or another slug of cold air coming in next week. But are you still a little bit above normal right now?

Jay Anglin: Yeah, I would absolutely and I don't think it's I don't think it's uh, um, you know outside the you know, plus or minus, uh, You know margin of error or anything like that, but it's it's like i'm looking out the window right now We got a couple inches on the ground. It's snowing, you know a little bit and it's still just cold enough to keep this snow from melting Um, and it's supposed to get warmer, you know later on and rain and then tomorrow we're up in the mid 40s and so um, you know, I keep an eye on the weather as you can imagine not just for this but primarily for my guiding for fish and Next week we get three or four nights where you dip down below freezing. And some of the small stuff will freeze for sure. And it always kind of cracks me up because every little wetland and little backwater bay and all these little areas that are holding some birds, they might not have 300 or 400 birds, they might have 30. But when you have hundreds of them in, say, a geographical region like this, once those freeze, those birds jump into the open water. And everybody thinks, oh, the ducks are here. And I'm of the opinion years like this, a lot of times the ducks have been here. It's just you're not seeing them because you're not going back into these little nooks and crannies. And then all of a sudden, it kind of forces those birds that forces their. Forces them to you know sort of go to the bigger water that stays open, you know So we'll see that definitely next week towards the end of the week.

Mike Brasher: I suspect have you heard anything from? Wisconsin minnesota. I know the north zone of wisconsin has already closed. I think probably there's some portions of minnesota They can't be far behind if you haven't already had some zones closed, but they were going to be sort of affected by the same like above Average, uh, temperatures this year was really slow. I was actually, actually hunted in Wisconsin and it was 70, 75 degrees one day. And then finally we had some wind come through and cool things down, but then it jumped right back up. But overall, kind of the same type thing. And have you, uh, in that area and have they, has it picked up here the past few days?

Jay Anglin: I, you know, a few of my sources are doing pretty good. Um, but, you know, you're talking about guides who are on the water daily and they're going to figure out a way, you know, so there's that, but I will say that Mississippi, um, you know, that entire Mississippi river Valley, and you've got the, the upper Mississippi, uh, you know, pool seven, eight, nine around lacrosse, Wisconsin, you know, huge stronghold of canvas backs, but people forget, you know, I mean, tons of mallards go through there too. And of course down, In the illinois river valley and along through there in the mississippi and illinois and iowa I mean those are also big draws. So you've got a big funnel going and everybody I know hunting those areas are getting um a real grab bag like, uh, you know a redhead a bluebill A shoveler, you know a pintail and a mallard in the strap. So, um, that's Kind of that middle I mean, I think we're just a little behind even in that regard But now is when we start to typically see once the dakotas minnesota Manitoba, maybe to a lesser degree, Saskatchewan. When those start tightening up, get some snow, and let's face it, there's a lot of food, but at some point, especially for mallards and pintails, if they're dry feeding, the snow isn't a huge issue. There's just a lack of food. They've eaten all of it. I think a lot of those birds will start to slide down. I think we're going to catch up pretty quick here as long as we don't get one of these Big warm-ups, you know in it to say two weeks. Um, but one thing I should point out that I thought was really interesting this year Is the temperatures? from here in northern indiana northern illinois northern ohio all the way up into ontario And up into northern wisconsin and minnesota were very similar like there's days i'd get up It's 68 degrees here. I look at my phone. I tap marquette michigan on lake superior and it's 68 degrees and It's been real fascinating to see it's kind of just locked things in and I think again You know, there's calendar birds that are going to push no matter what but they haven't pushed as hard You know, they're just like i'll fly a little ways and we'll stop here Um, but the biggest thing I see is like the late season mallards the big The big birds are just you know, they got the birds that you guys rely on down there frankly later in the season you know that we we like to You know beat them up a little bit before we send them your way But uh, you know usually by the end of november they're starting to push through here a little bit because we're we're dealing with ice and in snow cover, but um, I I we're like on the verge of the big explosion of migration and today I saw pretty I wouldn't rate it as uh, you know It gets an honorable mention as one of the better migration days i've seen in november for maybe the last two seasons So, you know, that'd be so pretty good push.

Mike Brasher: Yeah. Well, that's that's encouraging. I I can tell you from Observations down here and what i'm hearing from a few other people birds are on the move I walked outside this morning and had white fronts flying overhead and I am east of memphis and typically those birds are moving I Think of those as sort of regional movements. They may be coming from, well, I don't know, maybe they're even coming from Southern Indiana or something like that. Flying into Eastern Arkansas and somebody else was telling me that they heard movements down around Starkville, Mississippi of snows and white fronts overhead. And, you know, that's not traditional goose country, but it seemed like this time of year when you get one of these first weather systems, it really starts to cool things down. You see some of those regional movements at least that's my just sort of anecdotal story that i'm telling and so birds are on the move and and this is It's an exciting development for people whose seasons down here are about to open.

Jay Anglin: Oh, absolutely, you know a friend of mine in southern indiana, um even though he noted a fair amount of of specs around and um This is maybe I don't know a week ago And he said ducks they were not you know how near the number of ducks they usually do one thing he did point out I thought was interesting is he said normally they start seeing more snows um, you know by the first 10 days of november and He hadn't seen anything now another friend of mine texted me this morning from um north central, uh, missouri and uh, you know the photo from the pit there was a snow goose and uh hanging on the strap and he said there's the first one they've had even a crack at this year, so And then meantime, you got some you're talking about in Mississippi and probably down in Texas and places like that. So it's been kind of a weird, you know, migration. And I think just some birds just do it and others don't. And in the meantime, I think we're poised for a real good push, you know legitimate push and I the thing is we'll hold birds around here So how many get past us? I don't know but I think I guess my biggest thing is I think we're kind of resetting right now just enough to make it where we're Catching up with this, you know, we're behind a little bit. I think we're getting caught up a little bit right now. Sure

Mike Brasher: How much more of the season do you have? Uh In let's say michigan. Do you have a good read on that or do you get up there much at all?

Jay Anglin: Oh, I do, you know, the south zone closes, uh same day as indiana. It's uh, what is it the 7th or 8th of uh, December whatever that sunday is and then and then michigan has that little two-day split in january Right around new year's somewhere in there And then Indiana closes and then we open back up towards the end of December and push into early January in the north zone. But Indiana has three zones and they're staggered. And if you've got an Indiana license, you can. Especially if you live in one of those areas where you're you know, you're close to two zones you can really float those zone mark lines and and kind of you know, push your season and out a little further, but We call those we call those people zone jumpers that right that sound zone jumpers That's what they are. I've been I've been accused of a stone jumper and a state jumper because I'm I'm 10 minutes from michigan, but The worst years are when the dates line up and all of a sudden you've got openers and closers about the same time, you know, but Um, anyway, no, I, you know, we've got some time left. I think we'll come in, you know, might not be the strongest finish, but I think, uh, for the most part, you're coming into the holidays and it gets colder. It doesn't matter. Even if it's nice out, you're still going to get below freezing a lot of nights and that'll help. Um, so, uh, you know, again, I think we're catching up and then really, if you, if you're tired of chasing mallards and trying to get tired of dealing with them, go find some open, big water somewhere, but throw your, your, your diver decoys out. The divers are around, there's plenty of them, uh, in particular on the big water, you know, um, and, you know, of course that might require some specialized gear, but in a lot of guys, just, I don't know. Sometimes I'm amazed how many guys don't have respect for those birds because, but I'll tell you. They're in much better than having a big old flock of redheads come rolling into some blocks right in front of you, because they're about the size of a mallard and boy, are they fun and they taste great. So, uh, that's my, that's my pro tip for everybody today, I guess.

Mike Brasher: You're making me want to drive back up to a Harsin's Island for an early December, uh, hunt. Hey, by the way, let me just, I'm going to throw this out there. By chance, do you happen to know the last name Souliere? That's the clan that I run around with there up on, on Harsin's Island.

Jay Anglin: So it's funny, you did mention him the last time, and I believe he's one of my Facebook friends, which is like the gold standard these days, I reckon.

Mike Brasher: No, no, not this one. Not this guy. Oh, that's right.

Jay Anglin: He's not. He's not.

Mike Brasher: Maybe one of his brothers. I've seen him mentioned. He has a couple of brothers that do some fishing. I think one of his brothers is actually a guide somewhere around there.

Jay Anglin: That might be well, I know he i've seen him mentioned though you you even mentioned him I believe uh, but the bottom line is he's over Is he on st. Clair or is he up? Oh, is he further north?

Mike Brasher: Well, their cottage is on harson's island Okay, I got you.

Jay Anglin: All right.

Mike Brasher: So right there st.

Jay Anglin: Clair flats where it comes in I may I may I may have met him there, you know at the check-in station at harson's, you know, you probably did.

Mike Brasher: Yeah

Jay Anglin: Yeah. So interesting. You were at the, were you at the check-in station this time around, Mike?

Mike Brasher: Uh, we were, that's right. Yeah. It was slow. Um, like one, I don't know the, I think we killed a few birds there the day that we went out there.

Jay Anglin: So that big swan on the corner that's hanging out of the ceiling. Um, yeah, that was my buddy, Chris, my college roommate. He, he actually, he actually shot that bird in North Carolina. And and and got it mounted and he brought it home and he put it in his house He said my house is too small. So he took it over there and they took it hung it up on the ceiling It always cracks me up because when he told me he was getting it mounted I laughed like what are you gonna do with a tundra swan? You don't have enough space. So anyway, there it is, you know, so you get to see it every time you walk in there

Mike Brasher: Well, Jay, that's a useful transition because one of the things that we did there at, uh, on Harsin's Island was some walleye fishing with there on the, I think the South pass of the St. Clair River is where we were. We did really, really well. And before we started recording here, you were mentioning that, that fishing has been good for you. And that's why we always like to close these out with you is to get you talking a little bit about some of the fishing that you do. You, you do some guiding for fishing. And so what have you been, uh, experiencing so far this year?

Jay Anglin: So, you know, the same principles that apply to waterfowl migration have the same potential impact on migratory fish. Now, what's interesting is, what's nice about fishing is, is that you can fall back on your normal, you know, summertime species, such as smallmouth bass, in my case, muskie. And so even when we did not get, like, a normal salmon run slash steelhead run, et cetera, we had Outstanding in fact just yesterday a friend of mine that guides on the kankakee river in illinois was catching with fly anglers. He was guiding Huge smallies on flies and so it's still going but uh, i've had outstanding steelhead fishing the last two or three weeks We just get these constant cycles because we finally got some cooler rain. The rivers have been low so, you know, you're a guy like me i'm just hyper focused on weather water temp patterns. And finally, you know, after really kind of an agonizing kind of six to eight week period here of like, come on, man, can you please give me some winter and here in the last five days, it just kicked in. So yeah, things are really good. Thanks for asking. It's a, it's a, it's a blast, man. So.

Mike Brasher: Well, I'm going to have to get up there and check that out at some point. I've done some walleye fishing. No, we didn't do any smallmouth fishing on Lake St. Clair. We did do some bluegill fishing, but I've never done any steelhead fishing up in that part of the country. I got to get up there and take advantage of that at some point. You'll probably be on my list whenever I make that leap.

Jay Anglin: Well, if you went from Michigan to Wisconsin, you drove within 10 minutes of my house. Anytime you get up this way, if you give me a little warning, I'll make sure to clear the deck and have you in the boat and we'll go get some fish.

Mike Brasher: Last thing, you are in Indiana. I went to school at Ohio State. Who you got this weekend?

Jay Anglin: Well, it's funny you'd ask because I would have been fourth generation IU. My daughter ended up taking that spot, but my brother went to IU, my mom and dad went to IU, my grandparents went to IU. So as you can imagine, I'm a Hoosier through and through and Hoosier fan through and through. I tell you, it's going to be a great game. And I suspect a lot of naysayers are going to see IU, you know, if nothing else, providing some entertainment for, you know, a good game. So hopefully I'm rooting for the Hoosiers, but you know, it's a daunting task for sure.

Mike Brasher: It is. Look, I'm just happy to see a competitive game between those two schools. Indiana has given Ohio State some trouble here occasionally in the past number of years. And this is a particularly interesting matchup. And I'm excited to see Indiana come into this game in the position that they're in. Of course, I'm going to be pulling for the Buckeyes, but I'm like you. I'm hoping for a great game.

Jay Anglin: you know what i appreciate that and i've seen that from a lot of fans even purdue fans are you know scratching i use back so they've been there of course having a rough year but i think it's just like the detroit lions of which i'm a huge fan of and i'll tell you what my dad would be real happy guy right now with lions tigers and i u fan and it's been a great season for all three of those teams And, um, so yeah, I'm going to root for the Hoosiers and we'll hope for the best.

Mike Brasher: All right. Well, that's, I appreciate that. Jay, we'll be thinking about you on Saturday, may even exchange a text message or two. We'll just see how it goes. Jay, thank you so much for joining us. You're always great and bringing good information. We might check in with you here sometime later on this year. I don't know. We'll just have to see how the weather goes and. But as always, we thank you for the work that you do as our Great Lakes Migration Editor for Ducks Unlimited's Waterfowl 360. So, folks, go check out that website there, Waterfowl 360. And with that, we are going to take a break. On the backside of this break, we are going to be meeting with Mark Holley, Chief Meteorologist with WSAW out of Warsaw, Wisconsin. He's going to be giving us the skinny on the weather system that's coming through up there in the Great Lakes and how it's affecting you all and what you might see next week. Stay with us, folks. Welcome back, everyone, and we have joining us a first-time guest on the Ducks Unlimited podcast, Mark Holley, chief meteorologist with WSAW-TV in Wausau, Wisconsin. Mark, great to have you here. Thanks for joining us.

Mark Holley: Yes, and great to be on, guys. Hope everything is going well. And kind of been a warm November for much of us here across the country.

Mike Brasher: But we have you on because that's changing. One of the things that I'll also let our listeners know that if we happen to drop this signal, it's because we've been having some technical difficulties. We're going to get through this as fast as we can. And Mark's got a, you got a segment, a weather segment to record here in a little while. Your three o'clock or four o'clock session coming up. We appreciate you taking time out of your busy day. This is another in our attempts to connect with professional meteorologists to kind of get the skinny, get the details on what's happening with weather systems. And we just heard from Jay Anglin about what he's been experiencing and hearing regarding some of the changing weather conditions, what it's meaning for bird movements, the hunter success. I want you, Mark, to give us the details on what kind of weather system is moving in, what are the conditions for you right there in Wisconsin and the surrounding areas?

Mark Holley: Yeah, we did have a low pressure system that was off to our southeast, basically over the lower peninsula of Michigan, and that brought us our first round of snow since the 2nd of April. That's over 233 days since we've had our last inch of snow. That is a long, long time. To put that into perspective, our average first inch of snow is typically around the first week or so in November, okay? If November were to end today, it would be the warmest November on record. Now, we think that's going to change with a long range pattern. We're going to cool back down a little bit. But overall, we have just been mild and mild and mild. That's really the big story across the upper Midwest and northern plains. Now, as you look ahead, once you get past this weekend and into around that busy travel time, right? The day before Thanksgiving, the day after that Thanksgiving holiday, we're gonna see a big pattern change, not just here. We're talking across the entire country, likely east of Denver, see more active systems, better chances for snow along and south of I-80, even along and north of I-80. be familiar with that part of the country, like Chicagoland through Illinois into Pennsylvania and North, better chances for snow because that really hasn't been the case. It has been so warm. Put that into perspective, those that are listening and are watching this podcast. Some years, some places were ice fishing in Wisconsin by now. Like we have ice, right? We have frost in the ground. Harvest season is over. That hasn't been the case. And I do have a stat for you because weather, farming, everything ties in. Food on the ground for migration for other animals as well. We are 19 days ahead of the five-year average in terms of corn harvest. That is unbelievable to be what basically three weeks ahead. And why is that? Well, the reason why is mild. We had a really dry pattern in October now starting to pick up a little bit, but have been so mild. We haven't had any snow yet, really, for the most part. We picked up a half an inch and it's gone already. Yeah.

Mike Brasher: And so those producers are out there getting to that harvest as quick as they can and haven't had any systems, rainfall or anything of that nature to slow them down. Right.

Mark Holley: Yeah, that's been the case here and I'm willing to bet it's been a good case for most of the country. You know, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, the Corn Belt, Iowa. We just haven't had an active weather pattern for most of us, but now I think that active weather pattern definitely will change

Mike Brasher: you know that busy the day before thanksgiving the thanksgiving day holiday and the weekend after thanksgiving mark i think you are aware of the weather the waterfowl weather live that we did last week with some of your meteorological counterparts and at that time even over this short period of time things have changed a little bit based on my understanding I believe it was Scott that was telling us that we did not, at that time, expect this cold pattern to stick around very long. Now, I know after this influx of cold that's happening right now, or at least I think we're going to get a little bit of a warm up, but then does it cool back down next week? And then what are we seeing kind of over the next 10 days? And can you even peer out a little bit farther? Can we expect maybe some more unsettled weather?

Mark Holley: Yeah, I think as we go into early, so we'll say pre-Thanksgiving. So from now until pre-Thanksgiving, I think we warm up a little bit, especially Southern Plains, Texas, that area down towards Memphis, down in the southern part of the country. But after that, I think we'll start to see a series of more cold fronts. series of more active weather systems where you have lowest tracking across the middle of the country. Which means better chances for rain, also better chances for what migrating birds love, cold fronts, right? Stuff to move them around. I mean, even just driving around the Wausau and northern Wisconsin area the last couple of days, you see a lot of geese. because it hasn't been cold yet. You see geese, you see ducks. So some years, there's no open water for them to really to go on at night, right? To go on and be safe. There's a lot of open water and fields that are not frozen yet.

Mike Brasher: Now, the weather patterns that you're thinking may develop here over the next 7 to 10 days, maybe even a little bit longer than that, is that associated in any way with some of those low-pressure systems that we see out in the Pacific Ocean right now? There's a, what was it, a bomb cyclone that some of my friends out in Seattle were talking about they were experiencing a few days ago, and then I've seen reports maybe, is there an atmospheric river event starting to develop out there? How's all that happening?

Mark Holley: There could be, and again, when the West Coast is really active, right, and then that energy transitions to along east of Denver, that's where we're gonna start to see some more and more storm systems. So just think of each storm system that goes east of Denver, what does that do? It brings a more active weather pattern and taps into more cold air. So every storm system that comes across the country has to tap into some warmer air, but then eventually some colder air. So again, I think across much of the country, east of Denver, once you get past and around and past Thanksgiving, even into early December, the mid to long range pattern is below average temperatures for almost everyone east of Denver. That would include Kentucky, Nebraska, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, parts of the country that have been so mild the last couple weeks. that pattern is going to flip to more below average temperatures.

Mike Brasher: I can guarantee you that hunters in mid and southern latitude states like the tune that you're singing. It was not just two or three weeks ago we were talking about how things were just so stale and there was very little optimism that we were going to see any type of cold weather or even any precipitation to help relieve some of the drought conditions down here. That has changed and sort of a great example of how things can in fact change from some of what may have even been some of those longer range weather predictions. Now, this is just like a maybe two, three, hopefully a little bit longer period of time where we're seeing this change, but it is welcome news for people down here. Anything else, Mark, that is notable from a weather system standpoint? I do have a couple of final questions I want to ask you. We're going to get you out of here pretty quick because I know you have some job duties there, but any other thing noticeable that you want to bring to this?

Mark Holley: No, I just think the overall weather pattern, again, that has been so quiet. You've had high pressure for much of September, October, even early November. Again, southwest wind for an extended period of time warming you up, keeping you dry. That's what they're going to change, more of that northwest flow. So we're going to cool down a lot in Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota. And that cooler air is going to come your way to other parts of the country that have been, again, really, really mild. I mean, if you're out probably the last couple of weeks, shorts and t-shirts basically. That's gonna be changing to more of that typical pattern that you see in late November, early December. I mean, usually up here to kind of give everyone else watching different parts of the country, usually up here If you get to Thanksgiving before frost in the ground, you're not while plowing anymore, you're basically done. Typically that's around now, and we're gonna get another five to six days of that. After that though, that changes quite a bit. But some years in early November, you already have frost. It's frost in the ground, right? That colder air, those series of cold fronts you've already had that make it all the way to the southern part of the country, you haven't had that. Now you're gonna start to experience that.

Mike Brasher: Very good. Now, Mark, you are a hunter. You were telling me yesterday or the day before that after, actually, I guess it's tomorrow, you're going to be leaving where you are right now and going to do some deer hunting. And so anytime we have these, but you also do some waterfowl hunting, right? Yep. So one of the things that I noticed, I guess it was yesterday when I was looking at some of the, maybe it was the wind forecast for your area. We were, you were predicting gusts in the 30 to 40 mile per hour range. And so I want to just talk briefly about people need to stay safe. People need to keep an eye on these systems, especially up there in your neck of the woods. Any ideas or any thoughts to offer in that regard?

Mark Holley: Yeah, the windy weather, at least in our area, that'll be on today, Friday into this weekend. Again, something that you always need to keep up to date about that wind. I mean, that's, you know, those wind gusts 30 miles an hour, that can definitely be dangerous. But again, as more systems come across the country, what does that produce? More wind. So again, that's that transition from a fall pattern to more of a winter pattern where you can get these systems coming out of Canada or coming across the country, produce some wind, produce some rain, but also produce those cold fronts, which, again, it's this time of the year, late November, almost early December. It keeps a lot of those birds, again, not a biologist, but it keeps them more active, more that migration from north to south.

Mike Brasher: Well, and I said, you're going to go deer hunting here in a couple of days. You got to be excited about that and the change that this weather is going to bring to hopefully some of those deer movement patterns, right?

Mark Holley: Yeah, hopefully. Yeah. I mean, uh, things are still kind of green here. The grass is still kind of green, which is kind of something that we don't see again. Right. We're on, we were, well, we are on track for the warmest November on record. I think that'll change. We'll probably be that top 10 because it will cool down quite a bit, but yeah, looking forward to, um, This upcoming week with my dad, family and friends, Deer Camp, you know how that is. It's just the tradition of family and friends getting together each and every year to experience Deer Camp. I got two young boys, and they'll be my oldest who's turning 10. He's taking Hunter Safety, this upcoming, in-person Hunter Safety this upcoming spring to get him out and get him involved. He's excited as well.

Mike Brasher: Well, Mark, we appreciate you joining us. I hope this will not be the last time that we have you on to be part of this little growing cadre of meteorologists that we're going to try to tap into. So Mark Holley, Chief Meteorologist for SAW-TV in Wausau, Wisconsin. Thank you so much for being part of this, Mark.

Mark Holley: Yeah, thank you. And good luck to everyone out there that's going out for the rest of the hunting season, all that stuff. And all my other meteorological friends that join and get out in the woods as well. Wish everyone the best of luck. Yeah.

Mike Brasher: Also, I have to give you a Hail State. You went to Mississippi State, didn't you?

Mark Holley: That's right. Yes. I got my meteorology degree from Mississippi State. Yes.

Mike Brasher: Hail State. All right. Hail State. Let's hope we turn things around. couple of years, right? That's right. That's right. Thank you, Mark. Also, thank you to our producer, Chris Isaac, who does a great job of getting all these set up and does the editing and getting them out to you on the back end of it. To the listeners, we thank you for your time. We thank you for spending that time with us. And if you're going out hunting here this weekend, be safe. Enjoy this change in the weather systems. I hope it brings a lot of success to you and the people that you're hunting with. Most importantly, thank you for your support of wetlands and waterfowl conservation.