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Brian Pietrangelo [00:00:00] Welcome to the Key Wealth Matters weekly podcast, where we casually ramble on about important topics including the markets, the economy, human ingenuity and almost anything under the sun, giving you the keys to open doors in the world of investing. Today is Friday, November 21st, 2025. I'm Brian Pietrangelo and welcome to the podcast. And before we begin today's podcast, we certainly want to wish everybody a Happy Thanksgiving next week.
In fact, we will be off on the Friday after Thanksgiving to celebrate the holidays, so we won't have the podcast next week. We'll catch up with you in a couple of weeks. But again, wishing everybody a Happy Thanksgiving with friends and family. Also on the other side of the Thanksgiving week coming up on December 3rd, we are having our national client call with the Chief Investment Office here at Key Wealth to forecast our 2026 market and economic outlook. You should be receiving an invite if you are a client. If you're not a client, you want to reach out to somebody, a key or your relationship manager to get an invite, please do, so that you can sign up for the webcast. Again, it is on Wednesday, December 3rd at 1 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. I hope you can join us.
With that, I would like to introduce our panel of investing experts here to share their insights on this week's market activity and more. George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer, Stephen Hoedt, Head of equities, and Rajeev Sharma, Head a Fixed Income. As a reminder, a lot of great content is available on key.com/wealthinsights, including updates from our Wealth Institute on many different subjects and especially our Key questions article series which addresses a relevant topic for investors. In addition, if you have any questions or need more information, please reach out to your financial advisor. Taking a look at this week's market and economic activity.
We've got four key updates for you this morning. First, even though there continues to be a delay in a number of reports from the government shutdown, we're beginning to get some of the data. So first, outside of the government report, is the existing home sales produced by the National Association of Realtors. On a month over month basis, this number increased 1.2% in the month of October, which has been the highest since February and is at a 4.1 million annual rate. Now, this is the second month in a row where that has increased, so a little bit of movement here, unlocking some of the fragility in the overall housing market with regard to turnover and existing home sales activity. So good sign there in terms of two months.
And second, we have two updates on the labor market because some reports that had previously been delayed are now starting to come out. We'll begin with the initial unemployment claims report that comes out on a weekly basis, and most recent for the ending of the week on November 15th. That number came out at 220,000 initial claims. We also saw backdated reports for the two previous weeks, which hovered around 230,000. So the good news here, folks, is that even though we were in the dark for a while, those two reports show us that around 222 average of those last three weeks of initial unemployment claims is very favorable, because it shows that there is not an existing increase in the initial claims report. So good news there on that jobs report. In addition, the government came out Bureau of Labor Statistics with the employment situation report for the month of September, which have been delayed significantly. So we just got it yesterday, and it showed 119,000 new non-farm payrolls that were created in the month of September. The report also showed some revisions for July and August at 33,000 lower, but net net that average of 119,000 was well above expectations and estimates in the market. And we'll take it as a very positive surprise of the healthiness of the jobs market at least for now in this indicator. Now, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also talk that they will not publish the October report, which means this is the last new nonfarm payrolls report we will have before the December 10th Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
And number three, speaking of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, we got the notes from the October 29th meeting and they called the minutes. So ultimately, it describes some of the dissension that was discussed in the press conference and talked about more so, differing opinions from the participants on the committee with regard to holding rates steady in December, or looking for rate cuts based on the fog in the data that is now starting to come out a little bit more clear and forth.
Finally, in the market, we had a number of very large companies report their earnings this week, which seemed to be favorable, but yet the market had a little bit of a negative reaction to it. So we'll get Steve's take on that to help us read through those tea leaves. And finally, as a special program later on in our podcast, we'll be have a conversation around how we did with our forecast for 2025 that we published at the end of 2024. Just like we're going to be doing with this now in our 2026 forecast here at the same time of the year. So, George, let's tee you up for the first part of the conversation with your reaction to a lot of this data and what's happening in the markets and the economy. George.
George Mateyo [00:05:26] Well, Brian, I think the overall takeaway from the economic numbers that came out this week is that, frankly, there were some contradictory, numbers. And also I think the numbers were pretty stale. So more specifically, I think the thing that the market really kind of paid most attention to, of course, was the, the jobs numbers that came out for September. So again, those are probably two months old now, and I'll talk more about that a second. But the numbers were kind of mixed, frankly.
I mean, I think we saw some indications that the overall employment situation was a bit better than expected, in the sense that roughly 120,000 jobs were created in the month of September. I think that's say, there might be the highest tally since April. So that's a nice recovery there. The the prior two months, however, saw their numbers revised downward. So those would be August July numbers. So again we're kind of going back a little bit further. At the same time, the unemployment rate as you mentioned actually moves higher, almost close to 4.5%, which would probably be noteworthy. Then I guess you can kind of parse that number. So that was a good number of that number. But I think most people are going to focus on the fact that that number is still rising. So what that means is that the market is kind of appreciated.
We also saw wages come a bit soft as well. That's really good news for the inflation story. I think wages now are kind of running at about a 3.8 or so percent clip on a year over year basis, which is kind of kind of a comfort zone for the Fed. Not too hot, not too cold. I think they'd probably prefer to be a little bit softer. But, you know, America split here on that one. And I think you also just kind of know where they go. And if you think about the job numbers, the three month average now is ten. Moved up a little bit. Which is probably good news as well.
I think if you also kind of think about the numbers going forward, however, you know, some of the numbers this, this path report again, this is going back for September data, but, but the prior report suggested that most of the gains came in the private sector, which is pretty typical. But then note the note. I bring that to your attention in the sense that I think the government data, it's going to probably be a bit softer.
Many people are kind of bracing themselves for a pretty weak report when the actual October numbers come out, sometime. And I think it's going to be sometime after the Fed meets. So again, the Fed is meeting in kind of the first part of December, I think it's, December 9th and 10th, and then at the same time, that employment report that I just mentioned will come up for a week or so after that. So, again, we're kind of in a situation where the numbers are still, things are confusing. And overall, I think things are still a little bit foggy in terms of what they might mean for the overall economy.
So let's, maybe let's shift gears a little bit. I think the bigger story in terms of this week has to do with what happened in the stock market and the stock market. Call this news in kind of a, kind of interesting fashion, I guess you could say a lot of volatility in the equity market. What do you take away from this week when you can think about earnings? And we think, what if the set up for the rest of the year is.
Stephen Hoedt [00:08:04] Well George, I mean it's I can't couch the price action in anything other than to say yesterday was probably one of the ugliest days that we've had since the turn of the decade. If you look at it, I mean technicians would look at what we had yesterday and call it an outside day, which mean we opened very high to the upside and then closed, very, very much on the downside. And it completely engulfed the days- the prior days’ range. The last time that we had an outside day, similar to what we saw yesterday in the Nasdaq according to, you know, sources that we trust was October of 2018.
So like it has been a really long time since we've seen that kind of reaction. And what was a bit shocking about it was that the numbers out of Nvidia were good enough. I mean, we got to open to the upside, but yet, we just continuously faded the entire day from that. So it kind of tells you that, the, the market, you know, we've talked for a while that things have been a little bit overcooked on the upside. And like, what could the market do in order to exceed expectations here? And even though Nvidia exceeded expectations, it clearly wasn't enough to keep the party going, at least for today.
Now, the positives from this are that when you look at the technology stocks in particular, we have gotten to areas that the market would consider oversold. So we should be getting close to an area where tech stocks are going to bounce. But if you look at the broader S&P 500, things like 20 day lows, like we like to see those spike above 50% in order to kind of give us an idea that the market is in a place where we're bottoming, and those are only around 25% as of last night.
So it seems like the broader market has a little bit more work to do here to try to find a low, and wouldn't surprise me if tech, did did. So first. I think a more interesting piece here too, is to put this in a little bit broader context. If you remember, we talked very much about the seasonal pattern that the market usually has where we have weak Septembers in October and then strong November and December.
It would not shock me at all right now, given how we had a strong counter seasonal in September and October, where we rallied strongly that we don't have the opposite happen in November and December this year, where we kind of back and fill and chop and make mark time between now and the end of the year. I don't know that we get a face ripping rally between now and the end of the year.
Like we would normally kind of see a Santa Claus rally, that kind of stuff. It feels to me like this market needs to do a little bit of digestion for the gains. Again, I don't see anything nefarious, unfolding here, but. And a pullback from here that goes down and say, tested the rolling 65 day low or even the 200 day moving average around 6300 would not at all surprise me, to be honest.
George Mateyo [00:11:08] Well, at the same time, Rajeev, you know, this confusion around the devaluation of AI stocks and the overall market sentiment. But he pointed to I think he's after colliding with what the Fed is kind of talking about. And the Fed is not talking. Well, you know, by voice, I mean, there's a lot of different people out there that are chattering, expressing different point of view.
And as we come into the, the meeting right after the holiday, Thanksgiving holiday, of course, you know, the Fed's going to meet and I'm not sure exactly what were the leaning, because we've got so many different opinions that are now being kind of penny back and forth. Are you going to sort through that maze, that fog in terms of Fed speak and what they might be thinking about when they come together in early December?
Rajeev Sharma [00:11:46] Yeah. So, George, I mean, the fixed income markets are they're really looking for any cues they can possibly get for whether we're going to get a pause in December at the December 10th FOMC meeting or whether the Fed will continue cutting rates. Generally, if you think about what the Fed has done in the past, generally they don't cut and pause or they don't hike and pause either.
But right now, this is a very different situation where we don't have the data and the Fed doesn't have the data to really make the decision. So we did have the release of the October FOMC minutes this week. And the market really, you know, got what they wanted in that meeting. Obviously they got the 25 basis point rate cut. But the minutes showed quite a bit of a divergence amongst Fed members. Many members in the minutes signaled caution. They were a little worried about continued easing. They pointed to towards, stubborn inflation, continued uncertainty around the labor markets. All in all, the committee approved the 25 basis point rate cut, but they were pretty split over the rationale of why have a rate cut.
And, when we had the, statement released in the October meeting, we only saw two dissenters, Miran and Schmidt, and they were on opposite sides of the poll. But if you read the minutes, you really see a lot more dissension. I think a lot of policymakers have been arguing that we shouldn't have any more further rate cuts, because we don't have the data to support it. Meanwhile, you have other members that, feel that, you know, we have to continue cutting rates. And then the economy, if the economy evolves as expected, then it should be, you know, we should be cutting rates. So now the expectations for a December rate cut, have fell pretty dramatically since the October FMC meeting.
When we finished the October FMC meeting, we had 22 basis points of easing priced in. Everybody thought that we're going to get the December rate cut. And, just this week we had about maybe nine basis points of, rate cut expectations for the December meeting. So basically, the market was pointing towards a pause. Then we got the stale data that you mentioned about the payroll information, and it really didn't move the needle at all because as you mentioned, George: stale data is not enough to go by. But I want to point out how quickly the market can react to a Fed member or a Fed speaker or anybody coming up with a narrative that contradicts where the market is expecting.
Today we saw Williams, Fed Member Williams come out and pretty much said that he sees a need for rate cuts in the near term. The labor market, he feels, is softening. And it feels that, rate cuts should happen. And immediately, based on those comments just this morning, those expectations of a rate cut in December went from 36% to 58%. So again, that's how volatile this market is. We've seen it in volatility indexes for the bond market that there's a lot of question marks right now of what the Fed's going to do in December.
And I think when you have the Fed narrative and the divergence that we've seen through the minutes, it's really coming down to a coin flip again. So there's going to be a lot of volatility going into that meeting. I do feel that the market is pretty much going to stay where they are as far as yields go as they approach that December 10th meeting. You're right to point out that we're not going to get the jobs data that we normally would have got before that, meaning that jobs data is going to come out on December 16th, a week later. So the question mark really is, does the Fed go ahead with blinders on again and do a rate cut, or do they feel that, let's wait for the data. And I think right now it's a coin flip.
Brian Pietrangelo [00:15:11] Certainly a great recap from the three of you for this week's activity and still remaining some of that uncertainty. So really glad to touch on it, Steve and Rajeev, in terms of that uncertainty and that volatility, as we give that guidance to some of our listeners to watch out for that volatility.
So we are here at this time of year again, which is special, not only because of Thanksgiving next week and the upcoming December holidays, but also this is a time of year when we craft our upcoming outlook for the new year, and we also take a look back and see how we did on our outlook for this year that we wrote in November of 2024.So, a great opportunity for us to have a little dialog in this special segment with all of you. And I'll start off by saying kudos to all three of you and the entire team within our chief investment office. In aggregate, we've got six out of eight calls that we made that we're pretty much spot on. So that's a pretty good track record in terms of the investment business. And we're happy that our clients benefit from some of these calls, if not all of them. So just to recap real quick on the macro-outlook. If you go back to what we wrote in November of 2024, George, you did a great job. Spot on. In looking at what presidential administration policies would be implemented in 2025 with regard to four key ones certainly tariffs, immigration, deregulation and tax policy. And what you wrote on page eight was pretty much spot on. So kudos there, George. Steve, on your side of the equation, your equity write up was talking about a really choppy and uncertain period in the first half of the year, and we'd have a lot of trouble making much of any headway until mid-year. And then we expect that in the second half of the year would have seen a significant rally coming close to exiting the S&P 500 at around 6600.
Really spot on. In terms of that, we were pretty close. If you look to where the S&P is today it's almost there. So great call on the equity market Steve. Third Rajeev, when you wrote also back in November, you talked about a possibility or 2 or 3 rate cuts in the year of 2025. And that was very different from some of the other competitors and pundits that we listened to who were calling for many more than that. So you're spot on here. When we get to this December meeting on the 10th. It could be the third time during 2025. So your 2 or 3 cuts during the year was also spot on. Great call there from the team. The other five were more on our portfolio strategy type calls. So just a quick rundown here. We had our international exposure, which we had been underweight to for about three years, which was really a great call for our clients.
And then back on April 1st of this year, we neutralized that underweight for our international exposure, which has again been very favorable given where international markets were. So that's one for one. There. Rebalancing. If you looked at our weekly investment brief that we write every single week, you'll go back to April when there was the market selloff during Liberation Day back on April 2nd, where the market had a significant downtrend, almost 12%. And we advised our clients to look at rebalancing back into that market and again, if you've watched what the stock market has done since April, it's been on a pretty big tear. So great call there, George and the team. Then when we got to September, we also thought that the market got a little frothy with your comments, Steve. And also your comments, George, and maybe rebalancing a little bit down on equities to take advantage of some of the valuations being pretty high in specifically the tech sector. So those three for three, the other two we were a little off. We'll talk to George about that. We had a slight underweight to mega-cap throughout the year and a slight overweight to small cap.
So we'll get to that for our tactical asset allocation call. We can pin on that George. And then the last one was we always have this emphasis based on our analytics towards quality investments, both in the stock market and in the bond market. And that did not necessarily do as well. This year. So George, you want to share with us some of the thoughts that you had on the underweight.to mega cap overweight to small cap.
George Mateyo [00:19:12] You had to pick up the negative I guess, huh Brian? Okay.
Brian Pietrangelo [00:09:15] Well, I couldn't say we were eight for eight!
George Mateyo [00:19:19] Yeah we were never perfect. But yeah, kudos to Steve and Rajeev as well for making some really prescient calls over the course of the last 12 months. And even beyond that, I mean, I think we've had a pretty good track record, knock on wood. And, you know, it's a hazardous business to get to put forecasts out there. And we don't again, we don't specifically make any forecast like some competitors do. Those are, you know, I think prone to even more error. And frankly, they kind of connote this, this illusion of precision. But we can talk more about that later. I think overall, in terms of things that we've been talking about, that we've been kind of structurally underweight.
The mega-cap. Yeah, that's been kind of a tough call, but that's, to me, more of a risk management decision than a pure station decision. And what I mean by that, I mean that I think we've seen there's just this continued strength in the Mega-Cap market, and it's been surprisingly good. And I'm not going to dismiss that. And we were probably a little bit too cautious about that. But at the same time, you know, as I mentioned, it's a small bet for many of our portfolios. And I think it's still the right bet to make in the sense that if you look at where the valuations are stretched the most and at this point where we maybe where the froth has been the greatest, it's been that core of the market where the, the overall, strength of some of these big leaders, you know, they continue get stronger, but they continue to get more stretched in terms of valuation.
So again, if I just put some numbers out there, the, the, the 100 largest stock now in the S&P, you're trading at roughly 30 times earnings. The cheapest stocks in the overall market are trading at about 16 times earnings. So, the smaller cap I should say. And that's a pretty big gap I mean that’s; you know, a pretty big yawning disconnect between the large and the least large, if you will. And what we've also kind of a noted is that we think, and I think this is still the case for next year. This didn't quite come true this year, but we still think there's going to be some earnings recovery, meaning those companies that really are the lower part of the market will see their earnings growth recovers.
So, I think we've looked at in the aggregate, we think it's appropriate probably to be somewhat balanced in terms of where your exposure is. And as I mentioned, maybe from a risk perspective, you know, a little bit underweight. The real mega-cap stocks is important. And I'll be very selective. You know, I think one thing that probably is underappreciated, what Rajeev and Steve do for our clients is the fact that they think about how to structure portfolios, looking at individual securities.
And there you can express a view in terms of really where you want to be, towards some stocks and some securities, some bonds and less exposed to others. So again, if, for example, we don't own the Mega seven outright, others, maybe they should, but we're more discerning about that. And the same thing, what's true in the bond market where we want to be more discerning, and we also have you mentioned the last thing I'll point out really quickly, right?
I think you mentioned, I think it's also important to note, is that we do have a strong structural bias towards quality companies. And that actually has not been rewarded. This year. Usually we think that it is a long term benefit, a long term thesis of ours. But this year of some of the best performers have been the, the, the worst companies in terms of their performance and their overall financial metrics. You look at, for example, companies that have no earnings, some companies have new revenues, and yet those stocks have done the best this year. So it has been kind of a low quality rally. And that actually has also been somewhat detrimental to our performance on a relative basis, I would say. But overall, we think that's going to be the more advantageous position to be in the long run because we do think over time quality wins out.
Brian Pietrangelo [00:22:25] Great summary, George, and we'll take stock of it every year given the difficulty that it is in the market. And I think those two are very promising from the perspective, emphasizing quality over the long term. It has been rewarded, just not this year. So great summary, George. So with that, that was our scorecard for 2025. So pretty impressive from the team.
And we'll use that as a pivot. George, for you to mention, as I did in the opening remarks that we've got our upcoming national call on December 3rd, where we will discuss our 2026 outlook, just like we did last year, and give our listeners a preview of some of the things that we might be talking about during that 2026 outlook.
George Mateyo [00:23:03] Well, I'll tease a little bit, because I think it's still coming together. I know Rajeev and Steve have been really hard at work, and our teams at the heart of work, trying to think about how to describe and discuss what we think will happen next year. And I venture to say that we probably won't get 75% of the calls. Right, but we'll see. I think overall, you know, there are three big things we'll be talking about. And we'll be talking about disruption. Does that really, we're at a time right now where the rate of change is accelerating and the forces of disruption are becoming more pronounced. So, we'll talk about three big ones. We’ll talk about this kind of overall I guess shift away from globalization into more of a nationalistic approach, the way many countries are behaving. That's actually having some implications for traditional norms and kind of historic precedents unlike we've seen before. So, we'll talk about some of those big shifts that are happening globally. Then we'll spend a little more time talking about some of the big changes that are coming with artificial intelligence.
We can't ignore that. That's been a big part of course. And let's continue to probably kind of also, going to be a be the case next year. And then lastly, I think something that might be kind of happening for a while, and maybe, again, underappreciated is the fact that there's a lot of structural changes happening inside the markets themselves. So we'll talk about those three big, shifts and those big sorts of disruption and what they might mean for clients’ portfolios in the years ahead.
Brian Pietrangelo [00:24:21] Well, thank you for the conversation today, George, Steve and Rajeev, we appreciate your perspectives. And again, one last reminder to have a great Thanksgiving next week. And after that, on December 3rd, we're having our national client call with our outlook for 2026 as we just discussed.
Please join us if you can. Well, thanks to our listeners for joining us today. Be sure to subscribe to the Key Wealth Matters podcast through your favorite podcast app. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results and we know your financial situation is personal to you. So reach out to your relationship manager, portfolio strategist, or financial advisor for more information, and we'll catch up with you in two weeks as we are off for Thanksgiving. When we get back, we'll see how the world and the markets have changed and provide those keys to help you navigate your financial journey.
Disclosures [00:25:11] We gather data and information from specialized sources and financial databases, including, but not limited to, Bloomberg Finance LP, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Chicago Board of Exchange Volatility Index, Dow Jones and Dow Jones NewsPlus, FactSet, Federal Reserve and corresponding 12 district banks, Federal Open Market Committee, ICE Bank of America Move Index, Morningstar and Morningstar.com, Standard & Poor's, and Wall Street Journal and wsj.com. Key Wealth, Key Private Bank, Key Family Wealth, KeyBank Institutional Advisors, and Key Private Client are marketing names for KeyBank National Association, or KeyBank, and certain affiliates, such as Key Investment Services LLC, or KIS, and KeyCorp Insurance Agency USA, Inc., or KIA.
The Key Wealth Institute is comprised of financial professionals representing KeyBank and certain affiliates, such as KIS and KIA. Any opinions, projections, or recommendations contained herein are subject to change without notice, are those of the individual authors, and may not necessarily represent the views of KeyBank or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates.
This material presented is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or product or to employ a specific investment or tax planning strategy. KeyBank nor its subsidiaries or affiliates represent, warrant, or guarantee that this material is accurate, complete, or suitable for any purpose or any investor. It should not be used as a basis for investment or tax planning decision.
It is not to be relied upon or used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. It should not be construed as individual tax, legal, or financial advice. Investment products, brokerage, and investment advisory services are offered through KIS, Member FINRA, SIPC, and SEC-registered investment advisor. Insurance products are offered through KIA. Insurance products offered through KIA are underwritten by and the obligation of insurance companies that are not affiliated with KeyBank. Non-deposit products are not FDIC-insured, not bank-guaranteed, may lose value, not a deposit, not insured by any Federal or state government agency.