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TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays from 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with full episodes posted to Spotify immediately after airing.
Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” TBPN has interviewed Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. Diet TBPN delivers the best moments from each episode in under 30 minutes.
We have Tay Kim in the waiting room. Let's bring him in to the TBPN UltraDome. Tay, how are doing?
Speaker 2:Hey, guys. Doing great.
Speaker 3:What's going on?
Speaker 1:So hey. So tell me. Last time you were on the show, you bottom ticked it? What's going on?
Speaker 2:I think I made the bullish call on CPUs, memory, and NVIDIA. NVIDIA is up, like, 10%, but
Speaker 1:Nice.
Speaker 2:The CPU names have still doubled even after this big drawdown, and the HPM names are up a 100%. So I I'm hoping that, you know, it's the same thing again. I come on here, stocks go up again.
Speaker 3:Yeah. Ideally, we could have, like, an emergency reserve of take care of this. So if the market is ever down Strategic reserve. Strategic reserve, we call you up, you jump on, and
Speaker 2:then it's It was funny because it was the exact bottom.
Speaker 1:That's amazing.
Speaker 2:You know, it went exponential after that.
Speaker 3:Okay. Take him effect.
Speaker 1:So where are we right now with the level of FUD, the level of downward pressure on the AI trade broadly, the chips, the semi trade? Like, reset for us on, like, where sentiment is, and then we can work through the different pieces of counterexamples.
Speaker 2:So I think sentiment's very negative. We kinda had this huge up parabolic up move the last few months, and likely a lot of retail and hedge funds piled in. And we're seeing this unwind now. I I think the first a big part of it was Iran war getting worse.
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Every time, you know, we had the the first ceasefire negotiations, stocks started taking off right right after that. And then when you we had the actual ceasefire, we had a follow through. And then as soon as Trump started bombing Iran again Mhmm. You know, chip stocks have kind of plummeted in the last two, three weeks.
Speaker 2:And then now we we're seeing just, you know, back to the old pattern of media and the viral hot takes spreading a lot of FUD. I think we saw earlier this month, I think Reuters quoted, like, Zuckerberg's about agentic AI. They took it out of context, then every media person was with a hot take that this met Meta was seeing bad returns, so they're gonna cut its CapEx. And then we had leaks right after that saying that it looks like Meta's gonna raise CapEx. So we're we're seeing a lot of this hot take FUD.
Speaker 2:Yesterday, I think we had a flurry of stuff that scared people. The Wall Street Journal vendor financing article that we'll see we'll see what happens with that. Yeah. We had the CMXT IPO in China, and everyone freaked out over that. We have the information article on ASML.
Speaker 2:We could go through each one. And then the Kimi thing, it's obviously a big thing.
Speaker 1:Yeah. We'll definitely get there, and I wanna talk about open source and NVIDIA strategy there, obviously. Starting with the Mark Zuckerberg news in Reuters. This was July 2. Meta's Zuckerberg says AI agent tech progressing slower than expected.
Speaker 1:Zuckerberg added that the company's reorganization that included major job cuts was not as clean as it could have been. Zuckerberg and other Meta executives have been seeking to moderate some of the organizational changes introduced this year. And they said that the trajectory of agentic development over the last four months hasn't really accelerated in the way we expected. The company's bets on new structure haven't come to fruition yet. And so people were sort of reading this as maybe Meta's going to pull back, but then it felt like the response was extremely quick with with Boz going on a podcast and Alex Wang sharing a whole bunch of progress across a few different models and data points.
Speaker 1:And then Semi Analysis wrote a whole bull case for MSL talking about how they have compute and also they have more of, like, the internal structural alignment to sort of properly YOLO in the AI era if I'm boiling it down as brutally as possible. Just because with Google, there's always this debate between, oh, do you sell the TPUs or do you sell the cloud do you have it vended in the product? Whereas Mark Zuckerberg is able to sort of, like, go all in on this new idea. And so maybe there's more more glimmers of hope there. But what else have you been tracking downstream of Meta's ambitions?
Speaker 2:Well, I mean, they've been very upfront that they're investing heavily in AI. Alexander Wang is tweeting multiple times every few weeks that they're they're going full force. They're gonna redo open source AI models. They I think he said that the YC event over the weekend. Yeah.
Speaker 2:And it's I mean, if you actually look at and then Reuters came out, I think, with an article saying that they're actually gonna raise CapEx dramatically
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:This year and next year. So all that kind of fear that that quote about its fintic AI from the town hall that kind of, like, spooked the market for a few days, it kinda it was it was completely false. The stuff like
Speaker 1:this week Yeah. It feels like it's a comms air because the the language that's been coming out of Meta has been a little bit like AI is gonna replace our employees, and it feels like it'd be much better for them to to come to the market with a message of we're going on the offensive. Like, we're a hyperscaler.
Speaker 2:To be to be fair, that that was the internal town hall. They didn't mean to leak it and leaked Yeah. That one quote and put it out put out the headline before their article.
Speaker 3:Yeah. It's it's interesting like Meta did Meta basically go through like an eight year period where like internal town halls didn't instantly leak?
Speaker 1:I think everything leaked always. I think I think everything's been
Speaker 3:I know. But there was there was a period where like Yeah. The the the the sort of attention of the media way way way less on like what Meta was doing internally relative to the 20 tens. And all that attention just went to the labs. Right?
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No. That makes sense.
Speaker 3:Yeah. I I guess the question is like the question that I keep coming back to is, like, where is their revenue ramp? Where is their AI revenue going to ramp and when? Right? Because as you
Speaker 1:keep ads. Like the ads like the AI has Yeah. No. That's They're accelerating.
Speaker 3:All things get there. That's always been my view too. But when you're when you're continuing to ramp CapEx Yeah. With and saying like we're going all in on AgenTik and we're building a harness and we're also gonna do open source. And it's like, well, what is the strategy?
Speaker 3:Sure.
Speaker 2:Like
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Idea. What's the way through thought?
Speaker 3:What is gonna take you to Yeah. A billion dollars of like pure AI product revenue
Speaker 1:Yep.
Speaker 3:Or or or just API revenue. What's gonna and then to five and ten Mhmm. And what's gonna allow you to, like, justify the spend other than I think the market would love it if they just said, yeah, we actually need all these GPUs because we can actually be 10 time we're already good at ads. We could be 10 times better, and that's where we're gonna get the the ROI on all of this CapEx.
Speaker 2:Mhmm. Well well, they're definitely getting ROI on that. The market is worried about, you know, all this extra CapEx on the they're going for the frontier AI model Yeah. Race again. And they had to reset.
Speaker 2:Like Yeah. They had to a lot of people left, and now Wang hired a ton of people. And Yeah. We'll see what happens over there. It's gonna take time.
Speaker 2:It's gonna take six to twelve months before we see any more progress. But just
Speaker 1:when you don't
Speaker 2:came out a few weeks ago was a lot better than people expected. It wasn't
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:You know, the frontier, but it was much better than what people expected.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. So how have you been processing the NVIDIA letter around open source and all the back and forth, all the people jumping on, the companies that have been staying back?
Speaker 2:How do work through that? It's been very impressive what they've been they basically united the entire tech industry against Anthropic in in the last, like, three, four days.
Speaker 1:18,000,000,000,000 in market cap has signed on last time I checked across I mean, Google took
Speaker 2:a little time. Amazon signed on eventually.
Speaker 1:Mean, Dolby.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Okay. They signed on yesterday. They tweeted out. Interesting.
Speaker 2:Okay.
Speaker 1:I think Apple is still the holdout,
Speaker 2:but that's the one. Which is kinda strange because they're the one that would most benefit from open source, open weight models being, you know, more available, I would think. But I would think so. What Apple but, I mean, they pretty much got the whole tech industry to kinda corner Anthropic in their position.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:OpenAI signed on.
Speaker 1:Yeah. What did you think
Speaker 2:of Jarvis? Obviously, NVIDIA is a phrase Yeah.
Speaker 3:I don't know I don't know how how if I don't know if they're really don't I don't read it as being, like, cornered by any means. Right?
Speaker 2:Well, Jensen is on the record that, you know, he said, I think, to Bloomberg that there was a rising sentiment that something was gonna happen on the on the regulation front. Oh. At at White House or whatever.
Speaker 1:Sure.
Speaker 3:So this is kinda saw that this was this was week. You had at least four people in the admin say, we're not against open weights. We're against distillation.
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 3:And at least I was reading into that of some type of regulatory action around open weights and and then positioning it as we're targeting. This is
Speaker 2:the this is like we're getting Yesterday. Yeah. Yeah. About, you know, pushback and restrictions, and he's done doing it under the safety umbrella. But, definitely, Microsoft and Vidyo are worried that, what with the White House or Congress is gonna do something on this front.
Speaker 1:And Yeah.
Speaker 2:That's why they took Yeah.
Speaker 1:It seems very reasonable that he would no have no problem with, like, Gemma or Lama or any of the open source from, like, American hyperscalers where if you find out that they're distilling, you just walk across the street and sue them. And also, these big companies have huge huge I mean, they have safety teams, but also just, like, huge incentives to not have a safety incident happen on their watch because you're trying to, like, catch up to the frontier and then all of a sudden you have a safety incident. That's gonna be really bad for your overall brand, and you have a different business to protect, whether it's social networking or, Google search if all of a sudden the Gemma model winds up being a thorn in someone's side for a cybersecurity reason or a bio reason, that would be really, really bad. But a foreign company that is just like hurling it over here can kind of just be like, you guys deal with the consequences potentially. So I think that's what what Dario is worried about.
Speaker 1:What about, the overall idea of, like, where where it feels like we're sort of replaying the deep seek moment. Open source is going to reduce cost, and so, that's a reason to pull back on the AI trade overall. How do you process that?
Speaker 2:It's almost it's almost a perfect catalog. People are worried about Kimi. Yeah. But when you actually read the technical paper and their blog posts, this is not a tiny efficient model. This is 2,800,000,000,000 parameters.
Speaker 2:It's gonna require a ton of compute to serve. I mean, saw it the first day they put it out that their servers got slammed. Yeah. Even in the blog post, they say it's best run on a a kind of a server with 64 GPUs. So big super clusters that are networked well and and that's perfectly runs great on NVIDIA.
Speaker 2:And if you remember, you know, during the whole DeepSeek thing about a year a year or so ago, the market freaked out that, you know, DeepSeek was gonna was so efficient that it will lead to a compute glut. Mhmm. But DeepSeek was the example of the reasoning model that actually it was the opposite. It created a ton of demand. And I think the same thing has been happening with Kimi, where when you have more capable models that come out, people find uses for them.
Speaker 2:And right now, just like last year when reasoning models took off, AgenTeq AI and agents are taking off right now. And the market is kind of like not realizing that because right now, just like last year when reasoning models were taking off right now, AgenTeq AI is taking off. And the next six, nine months are gonna be bigger than anyone believes. And Sam is on the record. Sam is on the record over the weekend.
Speaker 2:Dang. At the YC thing again, like people don't I don't know why people don't, like, listen to the it's on YouTube.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:That the next six months, it's gonna be much more dramatically better for AI than the last two years in terms of advances capabilities. Yeah. And I I heard you say RSI before. I think it's gonna be RSI. Yeah.
Speaker 2:People inside open AI and definitely Anthropic, Anthropic put a blog post on this. RSI, I think is a lot closer than people think. And if RSI actually happens in the next three, six, nine months, that's going to soak up insane amount of compute. I mean, we have this exponential ramp for reasoning, exponential ramp for agentic, and then if RSI actually happens, and I think it sounds like both frontier labs think it's going to happen very soon, that's going to soak up an unbelievable amount of compute as the AI models, you know, use more compute to to self develop and improve. And I I think that's one thing that both Anthropic and OpenAI are kind of winking that, oh, it's happening.
Speaker 2:Anytime I tweet something on RSI, all these Frontier AI researchers like my tweet. So I think that's good.
Speaker 3:What what is your what is your sort of framework around compute hoarding? Because certainly certainly it is it has been happening when you look at when you look at, you know, like, going back to the meta example. Right? They're not selling compute yet. They're maybe curious about it or or exploring some deals.
Speaker 3:But they have all this compute and they're betting on their own ability to create the capability that will have enough demand to justify justify that. Do you just think it there there there's so much demand overall that it just, you know, even if there's there's hoarding, it just will leak out and it's okay.
Speaker 2:Well, there's so much demand overall. I mean, the SK Hynix executives said during their IPO run that their customers are asking five to six times more than they're able to serve. And they're gonna double capacity over the next five years, they said. And their customers, and I'm gonna assume it sounded like Jensen, are asking for five to six times more than they're they're able to build. So there's overwhelming demand.
Speaker 2:You guys were at the advanced AI Yeah. AMD event. Lisa Su raised her CPU a Genentech CPU forecast. Just three months ago, it was a 120,000,000,000 for '22 '30. Three months later, they raised it to 220,000,000,000.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Like, she doesn't do that. She doesn't do that.
Speaker 1:You have that just on the I've got that ready. I can do whatever.
Speaker 2:I mean, like Well,
Speaker 3:I just love this chart because he called it perfectly.
Speaker 1:He actually did.
Speaker 2:It's crazy. CEOs don't don't, you know, raise their TAMs by, like, these multiples in a few months Yeah.
Speaker 1:If they're
Speaker 2:not seeing insane demand coming in.
Speaker 1:Especially not public CEOs who are serious business leaders who've been running Yeah. Like, non meme stocks for decades and are, like, serious.
Speaker 2:Everyone's freaking out that this has let the .com bubble all over again Yeah. To find inquiries. Yeah. But what if these hyperscaler GPU cloud businesses are amazing businesses? Like, Morgan Stanley says, if you do inference, it's 60 to 80% profit margins.
Speaker 2:Right? These are amazingly profitable businesses as long as we keep growing the next few years. And and again, just like last year, we're we're on this exponential run right now over the next two quarters, and the market isn't seeing that. Everyone's freaking out that, oh, no. We're spending too much.
Speaker 2:And even Sam Altman podcast came out today and another podcast is
Speaker 1:He's flubbing his arm.
Speaker 2:Sam Sam is out there. He's out there. He said that he regretted, you know, pulling back on the compute purchases. They made a mistake by not putting the pedal to the metal because now things are taking off again. So, like, I Amazon, the CEO in April, if you everyone read his annual letter, Andy Jassy wrote.
Speaker 2:Yeah. He talks about how free cash flow works. We're not betting $200,000,000,000 on a hunch. We see the demand. We know it's gonna be insanely profitable and free cash flow positive in the medium to long term.
Speaker 2:So that's why you're investing $200,000,000,000 now. And in in a year or two, we're gonna see insane amounts of free cash flow, the thing that people are worried about right now. It takes time to build out these data centers and fabs, and you bet now Hold Hold on. Couple of years.
Speaker 1:Like, if you if you see, you see free cash flow that is that that assumes that, like like, the revenues have to catch up, and then the CapEx can't grow more exponentially. And so that means you have to see some sort of plateauing. Maybe it's at the end of the chart. Maybe it's this 20 30 range. But there is a different world of just, like, continued growth forever, and then we sort of, like, run out of money.
Speaker 2:The the pushback I have Yeah. There is that's a static view. Right? If they don't grow revenue Mhmm. For the next three years, yes, you can't do that.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:But they're growing Azure is growing 40%. Google Cloud is growing 80%. Yeah. You know, Amazon's growing high double digits. So if if if revenue is growing 40 to 80% this year, next year, and the year after, that's more revenue you have.
Speaker 2:That's more operating cash flow you have to invest. Right? Yeah. So that's that's what people are missing. Yeah.
Speaker 2:And if this stuff if if the data center that you're building now, you're spending all this now, generates unbelievable free cash flow in twelve to eighteen months because, you know, this AgenTeq AI is actually aging and re architecting all the workflows inside companies. And you need to do the AgenTeq AI coding agents to make your product better. Because if you don't if you don't iterate a 100 different iterations of your product in r and d, if you don't do AI, just like AT and T is doing at the Gen2 Advancing AI at AMD, he's talked about they're putting a 100 gen AI models into production. They're burning a trillion tokens a month and then that's growing double digits. The reason why they're doing that is because by using AgenTeq AI, you're providing a better customer service, a better you have a better product R and D, and you're helping your companies make better products and services.
Speaker 2:And if you don't incorporate AI into your company, Verizon, your other company is going to do is going to incorporate AI and then disrupt you, and then you lose all your revenue. Yeah. So everyone's worried the ROI. ROI is important, but you also need return on revenue because if you don't use AI, your your rival is gonna use AI to beat you in the market.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. No. I I I think the diffusion story is still even though we got, like, sort of jitters by the token maxing thing, just the actual usage of AI across companies is still pretty limited in terms of the amount of people that are using it, the time that those people are using it. Like, there definitely is a San Francisco bubble of startups where everyone is using AI a lot.
Speaker 1:But if you just walk into a normal business, a lot of people are like, yeah, I gotta check that out, which is some
Speaker 2:some context here. Yeah.
Speaker 3:R Karazian, Jared Sleeper over on the x was saying enterprise adoption disparity remains enormous. Yeah. And he cited R saying usage would a 100 x every company adopted AI to the degree of the most advanced companies. Yeah. There's like this No.
Speaker 3:There's this small group of companies that are
Speaker 1:People forget in the ramp in the ramp data, like adopting AI can mean like having a ChatGPT pro account for someone, which is, like, not exactly the same as, like, using codex and, like, coding agents and stuff. Like, it's important. I think that, you know, if I have someone on my team, I want them to be able to go and do a deep research report, but that's like table stakes. The question is like, are you actually speeding up anything that's repetitive in your job? And that diffusion is just starting to take hold.
Speaker 2:So so the total market size in terms of IT and knowledge management in corporations
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:It's about $6,000,000,000,000
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:Right, a year. The two main frontier AI model companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, I'm going to say, I think this is roughly accurate, are doing a $120,000,000,000 combined in ARR.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:You know? Well, why can't that go to $203,104 100,000,000,000 in the next year or two? I mean, they're they're growing at exponential rates.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:When we're taking off. And if the market is $6,000,000,000,000, right, why can't they grow to $203,104 100,000,000,000 in the next couple
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:I mean, it's it's like just do a little logic and rational deduction. Yeah. This is definitely possible and it's happening right now and it's accelerating and people aren't you know, they're just taking, you know, these big headlines where we had this, you know, $50,000,000,000 for Financial Times, and we find out it's over thirty years. It's like on the homepage.
Speaker 1:We we yeah. Yeah. Okay. I wanted to ask you about this. NVIDIA revealed its tenant for $50,000,000,000 data center that will use its chips.
Speaker 1:Explain what what is actually going on
Speaker 2:here. The Financial Times is Yes. Put on their homepage today Yeah. That NVIDIA is gonna backstop a lease for a data center in Texas
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:$50,000,000,000. And I saw that. I was like, oh my gosh. Oh, that doesn't sound good. Yeah.
Speaker 1:It literally sounds like they're buying their own chips. Like, it sounds like the most bad thing you could do.
Speaker 2:Yes. Then they actually read the article, like, halfway down the article. It's like a fifteen year lease, and it's only $50,000,000,000 if they renew the lease after fifteen years. So it's like over thirty years if they renew it. Then if you think about that, you're like, wait a minute.
Speaker 2:50,000,000,000 divided by thirties, if they renew it, That's
Speaker 1:Yeah. NVIDIA's fifteen year lease commitment for the Texas site is worth basically 20,000,000,000 and renewal options would take the total value to 50,000,000,000 over thirty years according to Hut eight.
Speaker 3:Okay. But what do you think their what what are their plans for the site? Is this they are gonna have some like, what what do you expect them?
Speaker 2:So so my my point is this is a billion, you know, whatever. A billion or $2,000,000,000 a year. Right? Mhmm. It's a nonstory, but it's a it's a big headline since they show a headline on the homepage.
Speaker 1:Yeah. And also it does it's not like you're taking a $2,000,000,000 loss every year. It's Yes. You are the tenant, and then you are also renting that out. So hopefully, you're making profit?
Speaker 2:It's a rounding error. It's like, you know, they're doing 320,000,000,000 run rate a year now that's gonna go to $405,100,000,000,000 next year, and we're talking about something that might be a billion, you know. Like, this is not a story, but this is how people run with the sensationalized headlines and people panic and freak I
Speaker 1:think they just wanted
Speaker 3:to say the biggest number.
Speaker 2:Yeah. That that's exactly the point. And and we're gonna see what happens with this Wall Street Journal article. Both OpenAI and NVIDIA are not commenting so far. We'll see
Speaker 1:But take us through the rumor.
Speaker 2:To wait. Rumor will Well, it's not rumor. It's the Wall Street Journal and other people reporting Yeah. That is in talks with OpenAI. It's a backstop, soft bank
Speaker 1:Mhmm.
Speaker 2:Up to 250,000,000,000, you know, 50,000,000,000. We don't know the details. And I don't want to speculate and comment, but let's actually see the details before we I I think the market had a really big negative reaction yesterday
Speaker 1:Oh, sure.
Speaker 2:To this story. Yeah. Because everyone I mean, Jim Kramer was telling his audience, like, sell everything at the open today because aianddatacenters,.com, you know, it was insane. It's just let let let's see the actual deal Yeah. And the metrics and the numbers before we panic and freak out.
Speaker 1:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 1:That makes sense. Sell
Speaker 3:everything. When you say freak out and sell everything, sell your dollars, sell your house, stocks, sell then I'll freak out. Mhmm. But until then, Tay, I feel I feel okay.
Speaker 2:I I mean, I just see the fundamentals. I see the CEO of a and d expanding her TAM Yeah. You know, dramatically in over the last three months. I see RSI under horizon, like every AI researchers like, oh my god, this is going to happen. We have to get there sooner.
Speaker 2:And then I see, you know, the obvious use case of AgenTik AI where you have to rearchitect your workflows internally. Every company has to do this. So everything is taking off. You see like you see when the president of Korea came to San Francisco area last week. You know, they had like a day in the valley.
Speaker 2:Instantly, NVIDIA CEO, Jensen Huang, Broadcom CEO, Hakten, Dario, you know, Sam Altman are there. Right? Yeah. Do a little logic deduction. Why are they there like crazy?
Speaker 2:Because they need HPM memory and they're dying to have it. So if you think about that, that means there's insane demand and HPM memory is in shortage. There's tremendous demand for it. Right?
Speaker 1:Talk about the oh, sorry. Talk about the NVIDIA CUDA mode. It feels like a big piece of AMD's advanced AI event was maybe the CUDA mode isn't as much of an issue anymore in the age of agentic AI. You can have an AI agent write you the software that you need to use any chip, and that creates less pricing power for NVIDIA. But there's another world where you're not really like, NVIDIA doesn't necessarily need a moat because everything's just growing so fast that they're still growing.
Speaker 1:But how have you interpreted the processing of, like, the potential death of the CUDA moat?
Speaker 2:So AMD is on it. Kimmy wrote, like, a couple paragraphs in their blog post about how they created a GPU kernel, all that. So everyone, you know Sure. Gets scared or whatever. It it's like, we'll see what it's like in real life.
Speaker 2:You know, this is just you know, AMD is incentivized to say, oh, CUDA's not a problem anymore. CUDA's been a tremendous moat, and I think it continues to be a moat. And the reason why is it's super reliable. Yeah. All the bugs have been optimized and fixed.
Speaker 1:Sure.
Speaker 2:And that comes from hitting the software, you know, millions of times and millions of times. Right? Yeah. Like, you don't know if, you know, if if you use ClockCode or Kimi Yeah. That what they figure out using their training data is gonna work in the real world.
Speaker 2:Right? Mhmm. They could talk about one little piece that does well. Let let let's see how it actually works.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:But Invidia's big moat is its scale, its co design of actually working through the networking, the CPU, the GPU, and how everything works together. And the other big thing is their balance sheet and their ability to get supply commitments from, you know, I I think I said this before, optical startups are, like, upset because NVIDIA secure all the supply for all the optical components. Same thing with TSMC wafers. Same thing with HBM memory. So the NVIDIA is using their size and Gorilla and be able to prepay and get components that are in shortage.
Speaker 2:So they become the dominant you know, over the next year or two, you're gonna see NVIDIA able to add tons of revenue because they were able to lock up all the supply components. That's another thing that people don't really talk about is their supply chain and their ability to work with partners and secure secure component inventory.
Speaker 1:Is there still energy FUD that we would run into an energy bottleneck before we run into a chip bottleneck?
Speaker 2:So Jensen said this last week on the Bloomberg interview that there are a lot of bottlenecks including data center shell, power, and all those things, components, energy, whatever. So all those things, it sounds really bad. Right? And then right after that, he said, I think we have the chip industry has enough supply to double their revenue every year. Basically implying NVIDIA has enough supply for for energy and all that stuff.
Speaker 2:No one is pricing that in. So everyone talks about bottlenecks. NVIDIA CEO just basically told you on Friday that they have enough enough supply chain and all the bottleneck stuff to double revenue every year. And no one you know, NVIDIA's revenue estimates for next year are a lot lower than double. I'll tell you that.
Speaker 3:Do you think the market prices in just how much of almost every important AI company in every category NVIDIA actually owns. Like, it it it feels like every single like, we're constantly focused on who's gonna raise CapEx next and and and and where is this quarter coming in. And it feels like in two or three years, people will look at NVIDIA's balance sheet and be like, wait, they have what what I imagine then will be, you know, could could end up being a trillion dollar plus of just, like, ownership in all of these great companies, which again just goes back to the advantages of that early scale while they're you know, while while all these companies are trying to compete away NVIDIA's margins and all these different things, they've been able to accumulate, again, positions in in all of these incredible companies. I mean, saw the SSI news, yesterday is a great example of that. But but how do you look how do you see it?
Speaker 2:So I I think look at Jensen's history in investing in these companies and CoreWeave and see how much money they made. They just bought stake in the optical companies, Lumentum and Coherent. Jensen is enabling the future because he sees this overwhelming title of demand and he needs these companies to be able to build up their supply chain and to give supplies and chips to to NVIDIA so they actually ramp very hard. You know, everyone's freaking out that this is vendor financing. What if hyperscale GPU cloud is so profitable and these companies need capital to build up that supply so they can serve the GPU cloud services over the next year or two.
Speaker 2:Maybe Jensen sees that coming like he did with all these other companies like CoreWeave, and that's why he's investing in these companies to be able to expand their ability to make the components the industry needs. So I I think you're exactly right. In a year, two, three years, NVIDIA is gonna have like all these stakes in these companies and it's gonna look like he was a good investor because he has been in the past. Mean, I think the man can
Speaker 1:buy a leather jacket for, like, $5 and sell it for a million dollars. I don't know what else you need to see.
Speaker 2:I mean, think think about the Are you a
Speaker 1:secret bidder? Did you win that? No. I got get you a jacket. The real the real question is
Speaker 2:I do I do
Speaker 1:have long until someone distills a jacket and open sources it, you can get a dupe of a Jensen jacket for $2. That's what I want. Anyway, thank you so much for coming on the show. Jordy, you got anything else?
Speaker 3:This was great.
Speaker 1:Yeah. This was great. Always.
Speaker 2:Thanks for putting
Speaker 3:up with all of our jokes.
Speaker 2:Yeah. Hopefully, this has becomes the lucky charm for the markets.
Speaker 1:Yes. I agree.
Speaker 3:I I agree. I agree.
Speaker 1:Talk to soon.
Speaker 3:Is in. Great to see you, Tay.
Speaker 1:Have a good rest of week.