Is the earnings recession over even before an economic recession has begun?

Is the earnings recession over even before an economic recession has begun?  Maybe, but probably not. 

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Is it over?
Welcome to the Know the Difference Minute for Thursday, July 13th.
Earnings season is here. Over the next few weeks, many companies in the S&P 500 will be reporting their quarterly earnings.
While the economy may not have entered a recession, corporate earnings have. They have declined for a few quarters in a row already. That’s an earnings recession.
According to Bloomberg, expectations are for earnings in the second quarter to fall about 1.4% from the first quarter. But those same analysts think we will see earnings rise nearly 4% in the third quarter.
For the Russell 2000, an index that focuses on smaller companies, earnings are expected to increase 1.65%.
Is the earnings recession over even before an economic recession has begun?
Maybe, but probably not. Earnings are very volatile. While they can rise and fall for many reasons, a broader economic decline, historically, hasn’t been helpful for a sustained earnings rebound.
I’m Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management. That is your Know the Difference Minute.