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Welcome to the NFL Catch-Up podcast, delivering you a weekly catch-up of the most interesting stories and trends from around the NFL. We drop NFL Catch-Up every Friday morning all year long across the major podcast platforms. You can find us on X @nfl_catchup. We're also available on YouTube and on the web at nflcatchup.com.
Welcome to another episode of NFL Catch-Up, hosted by brothers Mike and James Mathews. The purpose of our podcast is to recap the opinions and analysis from national experts across the NFL podcasting landscape -- delivering you a weekly catch-up of the most interesting takes from around the NFL. We'll be dropping NFL Catch-Up every Friday morning all year long across the major podcast platforms. You can find us on X @nfl_catchup. We're also available on YouTube and on the web at nflcatchup.com.
Mike:
Given the NFL season is set to kick off this week, on today’s episode we will be bringing you the most compelling preseason projections from the national experts.
James:
Let’s start off with ESPN’s Mina Kimes’ show, joined by Sean Evans, Bill Barnwell and Dominique Foxworthy. Sean began the prediction podcast by stating that he expects the Bears will deliver 11 wins and win the NFC North, surpassing the favorite in the division, the Detroit Lions. Foxworthy chimed in that the hotter take is the fact that Evans isn’t projecting the Lions or the Packers to deliver 11 or 12 wins to take the division.
Mike:
Mina Kimes’ top prediction was that the Houston Texans will finish with the Top 5 Offense and Top 5 Defense this year. She indicated that this conviction has grown throughout the offseason and into the preseason. For those that track DVOA, all the analysts agreed that it is very difficult to achieve that level of success on both sides of the ball. Kimes’ made the point that the O Line last year was devastated with injuries and can’t possibly be as bad running the ball as last year. Coupled with continued progress from Stroud and now with the addition of Diggs, Defenses will struggle to slow them down.
James:
Barnwell and Foxworthy both indicated that should Mina’s prediction fall short, it’ll be more likely the Defense. Barnwell points out that the Texans roster lost some key pieces on Defense this year, most significantly Jonathan Greer. The other concern is age, as Bill mentions that the Texans were one of the oldest teams in football last year based on how Casario built this team – adding a lot of veterans and short-term free agents. This certainly accelerated the rebuild, but this brings into question if it leaves the Texans with the kind of ceiling as the Packers and Lions ran into last year.
Mike:
Foxworthy completed the podcast with the hottest take; predicting that the Jets will win the super bowl! His view is the Jets have a roster that’s pretty loaded with talent but is reliant on some older guys with an injury history at tackle and at quarterback specifically. He’s very confident the Defense is going to show up, and the fact that they are missing Reddick isn’t cause for concern because he points out they were dominant without him last year. The key question, not surprisingly, is all about the health of Rogers, the three-time MVP. And Foxworthy controversially says “can he just be mediocre” – so if Rogers stays healthy and is mediocre and Breece Hall is good -- if the answers to those questions are yes, then they can win the super bowl.
James:
Moving over to the Good Morning Football podcast hosted by Peter Schrager, his hot take is the number one seed in the AFC will be the New York Jets. He thinks Aaron Rogers will stay healthy, the Offensive Line will protect him, Breece Hall will be everything you hoped he was, Garrett is going to be even better, and the Defense with or without Hasson Reddick will be one of the top Defenses in the league.
Schrager’s other surprise picks were that the Denver Broncos and LA Chargers will grab wild card spots. In discussing his Broncos pick, he said “in Sean Payton I trust, he’s taken a year to get his guys in place and I’ve seen Sean succeed with a lot less in New Orleans.”
Who Schrager left off his AFC playoff predictions was shocking to most football analysis; as he didn’t pick the Texans, Bengals, Dolphins or the Browns to make it to the postseason.
Mike:
Over to the NFC, Schrager surprisingly picked the Rams to win the NFC West and feels the Falcons could surprise everyone and make it to the super bowl as division winners in the South. Bringing in Cousins and the new coach he feels will bring to the team a different and winning vibe.
James:
Jumping to the Rich Eisen Show on his Overreaction Monday NFL Season Preview podcast with special guest Chris Brockman. Brockman began the podcast by stating that his predictions last year had about a 70% hit rate, as he predicted Lamar Jackson would be an MVP finalist which he ultimately won. That the Bengals would miss the playoffs, the Packers would make the playoffs and the Jets would miss it. And finally that the Rookie receiving record would go down and that Puka Nacua took care of that. So quite a recent track record for Chris.
His most controversial predictions for this year include first, that the 49ers nor the Chiefs will make it to the super bowl this year. Eisen questions Brockman as to how the Chiefs will not make it. Chris states “I have all of history on my side,” making the point that no team has ever won three super bowls in a row. Brockman in fact feels the Chiefs are more likely to miss a trip to the super bowl compared to the 49ers, saying the AFC is just too good. He also feels the NFC is top heavy with the 49ers, Eagles and Lions. Eisen pushes back that Chris shouldn’t sleep on the Cowboys, Packers and Atlanta. And that the Rams could also catch fire.
Mike:
Next prediction from Brockman was that this will be the year that the Steelers and coach Tomlin finally end up with a below 500 record. Chris states that he has a lot of questions about the Offense, that he doesn’t question the quality of the Defense, but doubts they can score enough. Eisen also makes the point that they were done dirty by the schedule makers, as their entire division schedule isn’t until weeks 11 through 17, so they better have a good start at like 3 and 1 and 6 and 2 if they want a winning record.
James:
Chris’ also makes the prediction that the Panthers will not have the worst record in the NFC South. He feels the Bucs and the Saints could have a difficult season. He questions Dennis Allen’s coaching ability, and conversely is really high on Canales’ ability to coach QB’s and thinks they could go 7 and 10 which wouldn’t be a last place record.
Mike:
Next, Brockman predicts there will be two teams that head into November with undefeated records. Eisen thinks if this happens, he guesses it could be the Bengals – but that means the Bengals would have to beat the Chiefs, Eagles, Baltimore and Cleveland, not easy. Philly may have the chance to get there, but they would have to beat Cincinnati, so that game could determine if either team achieves that. Eisen shows his love for the Jets by suggesting its possible they could do it, but that would require they beat San Francisco, Buffalo and then Houston on October 31st.
Finally, Brockman completes his predictions by saying he thinks this year’s super bowl winner will be among the teams who have never won it. Houston, Cincinnati, the Lions, Buffalo, Cleveland, Atlanta and the Jags being the best possibilities.
James:
Moving to the The Ringer NFL Show hosted by Sheil Kapadi with guests Steven Ruiz and Deonte Lee, who this week made their season predictions in the AFC. We’ll focus on their AFC divisional picks outside of the West as all the analysts picked the Chiefs to win their division.
Mike:
Starting in the AFC East, Sheil said that while Steven and Deonte are picking the Bills, for once he’s picking the Jets over the Bills, which was a last second switch, but he feels they have a decent backup tackle in case of injury, and the fact that they signed Tyrod Taylor gives him comfort that they could survive a short-term injury to Rogers better than last year.
James:
In the AFC North, in a very very difficult division, the Ravens are favored at plus 145 and the Bengals second at plus 165. Both teams in fact are at 10 and a half projected over under win totals, while no team in the division is lower than 8 and a half.
Sheil however voiced serious concerns about Baltimore’s offensive line. Starting a 7th round pick at one spot, starting another guy at another spot that has two starts over the last two seasons, starting a rookie at right tackle, and your best offensive lineman Tyler Linderbaum is dealing with a neck injury right now, which makes him very nervous, and Ronnie Stanley, who in his prime was an awesome left tackle, but the guy has had injuries and has not looked like the same player. It seems a lot has to go right to reach their ceiling according to Sheil.
Mike:
For all those reasons, Sheil picks the Bengals to win the division and he feels they are set-up for a monster season and projects 12 wins. Burrow’s summer has gone as well as you could have hoped for, the wrist hasn’t had any setbacks. The offensive line, which he understands is a question mark, there are solutions there if you can get a combo of Mims and Trent Brown to get good right tackle play, they brought back Tee Higgins, so they are potentially set-up to repeat their offensive performance of two years ago when they were ranked in the top five. On the defensive side, while they had a step back last year primarily because their two young safeties gave up more explosive plays than any team in the NFL, their new tandem of Geno Stone and Von Bell -- while they aren’t all-pro players -- they will know what they’re doing and Stone was very good for the Ravens last year. So even though they will likely have a mediocre defense, their offense combined with the fourth easiest schedule in the league will make the difference.
James:
Over to the AFC South, Ruiz says there’s an urge inside him to push back on the Texans hype. That maybe there’s too much expected too soon, that they are a year away. But looking back at the division, he has no faith in any of the other teams in the division. The Jags, he has no faith in them. The Titans, he has no idea what the plan is. The Colts, he has to see it. Part of Ruiz wants to believe in Richardson to have this great big, breakout second year and that is potentially in the range of outcomes, but the Texans are the clear pick. The Texans are the team in the division that has a coherent plan, they have the quarterback, they have a coach he trusts, and they have a defense that’s improving.
Mike:
As for wild card teams in the AFC, Lee and Ruiz picked the Dolphins although the loss of Wilkens and depth are concerns. Sheil has the Bills as the wild card over the Dolphins, as he’s unsure if all the guys coming back from injury are going to perform at the same level. Sheil also picks the Jags as a wild card, winning 10 games.
James:
Ruiz’s second wild card is the Bengals, projecting they win 12 games but losing the division to the Ravens. Lee also has the Bengals as the second wild card, as he believes their Defense is poised for a big bounce back season. Ruiz and Lee’s final wild card picks were both the Jets, meaning they both believe the AFC East will have three teams in the playoffs.
Mike:
OK, onto their picks for AFC Champions. Both Ruiz and Lee have the Ravens winning the AFC, and in both cases pick the Ravens to take down the Chiefs to get there. Sheil conversely projects the Texans will take down the Chiefs in the playoffs, but lose to the Bengals in the AFC Championship. Finally, all three analysts project that the AFC Champion will go on and win the super bowl.
James:
The last national podcast we’ll recap today is the Pushing the Pile CBS NFL podcast with Mike Renner and Kyle Long. Their prediction podcast focused on the teams they consider to be the REAL super bowl contenders. These were labeled as tier one candidates, defined as the best teams, those teams that have elite talent everywhere, up and down the roster and consequently the most likely to lift the Lombardi trophy.
Mike:
So Kyle Long’s stated there’s only three teams he’d put into tier one; the Chiefs, Lions and 49ers. Each team in his view shares a key attribute in common; physical offensive lines that will play a smash mouth brand of football. The Chiefs have the wizard at quarterback, the Lions have a PhD at quarterback and a head coach that refuses to punt, kick or do anything that would show any cowardice. The third team, the 49ers, are a literal all-star team quarterbacked by Mr. Irrelevant who has brought his team to the super bowl and came back from 17 down against that Detroit Lions team.
Mike:
Renner had a distinctly different view of the tier one teams. He agreed with the Chiefs and Lions, but he added the Eagles, Packers and Texans to the list, and no 49ers. Mike said he trusts Vic Fangio and the Eagles Defense to bounce back, and the offense looks like an all-star team where you can’t play man coverage against these guys. Mike also included the Packers, saying they were on the door step last year and had the 49ers on the ropes in the playoff divisional round until the run defense ended up faltering down the stretch. Now they have four first-round picks across the defensive front and a much improved secondary, with a completely revamped safety room led by Xavier McKinney who they brought over from the Giants. Renner says this will be quite the litmus test on Friday night with the game against the Eagles.
James:
Enjoy week one and we’ll look forward to re-capping the best takes from each of the top games next Friday.
Thank you for listening today. We would kindly ask that you rate, review, share and subscribe to NFL Catch-Up. Remember we drop every Friday morning all year long across the major podcast platforms. You can find us on X @nfl_catchup. We're also available on YouTube and on the web at nflcatchup.com.