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NET Society is unraveling the latest in digital art, crypto, AI, and tech. Join us for fresh insights and bold perspectives as we tap into wild, thought-provoking conversations. By: Derek Edwards (glitch marfa / collab+currency), Chris Furlong (starholder, LAO + Flamingo DAO), and Aaaron Wright & Priyanka Desai (Tribute Labs)
00;00;15;29 - 00;00;18;25
Aaron
Another day in crypto. Guys how are we feeling?
00;00;18;25 - 00;00;20;17
Chris
Down only man down only.
00;00;20;20 - 00;00;22;11
Pri
Down only.
00;00;22;14 - 00;00;47;17
Aaron
But do you think that's the case? I mean, I find it perplexing, right? Because I don't know, like you look at ETH transactions all time high. If you look at like RWA growth, it looks like a hockey stick. You look at, you know, the number of agents that are getting registered on chain on this, that new standard, ERC 8004, it's like exploded across like a bunch of different ecosystems.
00;00;47;18 - 00;01;20;19
Aaron
You look at stablecoin use, it keeps on going up. You get you keep on getting a battery of conversations just about more and more, you know, traditional institutions moving over to stablecoins. You know, it seems like the legislation is kind of slowly mandatory its way through or cumbersome process there. I don't know, it just like it feels kind of weird and I don't I don't think the economy in the US at least is like, like firing on all cylinders, but it doesn't feel like horrible to me at this point.
00;01;20;21 - 00;01;31;06
Aaron
You know, we got a nice jobs print if my news feed is accurate, that it was better than expected. I don't know, just it feels like kind of weird. I wonder what's going on.
00;01;31;10 - 00;02;02;02
Chris
You're pointing out a bunch of, like, long term durable things, and most of those things involve, I'm going to say, relatively inert token movements and all. Your downside volatility is driven by gens, and genes are having a tough time with things. And so, you know, they're the ones they're there for sellers in this situation or they're skittish. You know I like Wall Street clearly like just doesn't care what the price of eat is.
00;02;02;02 - 00;02;23;17
Chris
Or maybe they have a preference for the price of eath to be low. Right. All those other I mean it's getting eats, it's getting dragged down. Just, you know, because everything is. But, you know, all this other stuff is okay, you know, you've got sailor who you know is coming under pressure is sold for the first time ever.
00;02;23;20 - 00;02;48;14
Chris
You know, he could have sold more. We don't know yet, you know. And so the big the big orange thing, you know, is, is good. It's one set of problems. And then everyone who needs the action and thought they were smart, good. Arthur Hayes on top of like a you know, zcash and vulnerability. So once again you know it's just it's crypto.
00;02;48;16 - 00;02;55;04
Chris
You know you have commons problems. And commons problems are a lot easier to drive things down than they are to push them up.
00;02;55;05 - 00;03;24;11
Pri
I hear all that. But we can't just be like, oh, it's crypto, it's whatever. I mean, there has to be like a reason for this, right? Like is the reason all of the IPOs that are coming, you know, it's not as interesting on the risk curve anymore because it's just it's kind of just become a mainstream asset is like the gold narrative around Bitcoin leaving like why now all of a sudden I still don't understand.
00;03;24;14 - 00;03;47;07
Chris
You're overcomplicating this free. Yeah maybe. What was the last time crypto made people money? When was the last time crypto did something good for people? The only time crypto goes up is apparently when someone's manipulating it to dump on all the suckers. To come in afterwards. Like this doesn't need to be all that complicated. Like what his crypto done for anyone lately.
00;03;47;09 - 00;03;48;01
Chris
You know.
00;03;48;03 - 00;04;06;09
Aaron
I'm not a trader type, but I do think what we're seeing around like, hyper liquid and putting aside like all the regulatory challenges related to it, but like having that like 24 over seven kind of marketplace that can handle things in a more kind of digitally native way. I think that that does have a lot of value. Chris.
00;04;06;10 - 00;04;30;21
Aaron
I mean, I think the stablecoin stuff and making more efficient, a more efficient dollar is, is huge, right? Like that's going to add, you know, percentage points on the US GDP because of that I think the efficiency that you're kind of seeing with these like these kind of neo banking systems, I think it really is. I think there was even like a where somebody tweeted it.
00;04;30;22 - 00;04;51;00
Aaron
You know, I think the banks are like, you know, a bit worried about that. You know, they feel like cable, you know, cable cable companies. Right. And they they're worried that their business model is changing a bit. And I think that that's why there's a friction around the legislation related to it. So I don't know, I think the like the core principles are kind of all there.
00;04;51;01 - 00;05;12;16
Aaron
You know, maybe it's leverage. Maybe people are really nervous about the security vulnerabilities that are around the space. It feels like, though, that if there are those vulnerabilities, one, they get patched pretty quickly. If I'm sure folks saw that, they found a pretty, pretty big one in Zcash, you know, and then it was it was patched up super quick in a day or so.
00;05;12;22 - 00;05;33;14
Aaron
It doesn't seem like there's like it was actually exploited in some sort of way. Just because there's a bug doesn't mean it's like a material one. You know, in some of the crypto researchers were kind of noting that, like, if there was a vulnerability, you'd probably see some more activity kind of related to that, maybe just, you know, maybe just as simple as leverage.
00;05;33;16 - 00;05;37;04
Aaron
A lot of like you were noting, Chris, are probably pretty levered up.
00;05;37;08 - 00;06;01;22
Chris
Look, the Schrodinger's orchid pool argument isn't very reassuring. Let's just be real about that, right? Like, sure, you can get some comfort in that. You could also just flip it around and say, okay, the reason to hold Zcash, the, you know, quote unquote killer feature of it actually has also been revealed to be a huge downside when vulnerabilities are exposed.
00;06;01;23 - 00;06;25;11
Aaron
Yeah. But those those vulnerabilities don't exist. Like that specific. Let me just describe the vulnerability of folks and see it. But the fact that it uses ZK technology makes it really difficult to identify bugs and issues related to it. And I think some folks presciently kind of noted that at different points in time since Zcash launched. But, you know, that's not present in Bitcoin land, right?
00;06;25;12 - 00;06;30;14
Aaron
And also like the downward trend started happening before that I don't know.
00;06;30;21 - 00;07;03;21
Chris
Let's be real as a product, if you cannot independently verify the size of your coin circulating within a pool, you've got a major problem. It's as simple as that. It's poor product design. You can go, oh, it's well, you know, ZK is a whole proven system. You could have put in place a way to prove what the actual supply inside the orchid pool is without, you know, creating privacy issues for individual transactions or, you know, what's actually inside the pool.
00;07;03;22 - 00;07;06;26
Aaron
Yeah, I mean, that's a bit above my, my technical pay grade, but.
00;07;07;02 - 00;07;14;00
Chris
It doesn't have to be a technical pay grade. Aaron. It's product 101 though, the size of the thing you're dealing in.
00;07;14;02 - 00;07;18;14
Aaron
Yeah I wonder why they didn't do that. Did they just not think of it. Or maybe.
00;07;18;16 - 00;07;20;04
Pri
Maybe they just didn't think of it.
00;07;20;05 - 00;07;37;15
Chris
Because they're cryptographers. They're not product people. You know, like it's just different mental models. Like there's no CFO of Zcash. They're going to CFO of Zcash. Like this would have existed. Yeah. It would have been the first thing they asked for. What is my denominator. How can I verify my denominator.
00;07;37;17 - 00;07;40;27
Aaron
So you think we crab along Chris. Is that a is that your read.
00;07;40;28 - 00;08;01;29
Pri
Yeah. Someone tell me a positive read. Actually, I don't know if I want to hear that crab along read. I want to hear it'll be down for the summer. And then a really optimistic fall because everyone will have a huge liquidity event from all these IPOs. And that'll get crypto excited and rates will come down. This is the narrative one to hear.
00;08;02;01 - 00;08;05;06
Chris
I can't I can't give you that narrative. I hold the opposite view.
00;08;05;12 - 00;08;08;27
Pri
I know, I know, I actually think the opposite of that narrative is actually true.
00;08;08;28 - 00;08;43;07
Aaron
I don't know, I mean, I guess we got some indication from anthropic that, you know, there was kind of two mental models for AI that was like the slow takeoff and the fast takeoff. And did you guys see that tweet from anthropic yesterday? They seemed to be indicating that they believed were in fast takeoff land. And I don't I really think that like, crypto will feel stabler in that type of an environment like that chaotic software ecosystem that looks like it's coming, you know, so the fast takeoff models, when the AI becomes increasingly recursive and just improves almost exponentially.
00;08;43;08 - 00;09;01;01
Aaron
And so if that's happening or we're getting closer to that, I mean, I think there's a lot of interesting, very difficult questions to kind of deal with related to it. But it's going to just really compress the margins on software, I think. And so we've been living in like a compressed margin software environment in crypto for a decade.
00;09;01;02 - 00;09;21;08
Aaron
Right. So we kind of like can get a sense of what that feels like. I think that maybe coming to like the the rest of the software industry. And so I do just think crypto feels like better there in like a weird way because it operates there. I mean, it definitely is not the polished market that I think all three of us hope it becomes.
00;09;21;08 - 00;09;34;07
Aaron
And maybe this is kind of like the the healing and growth period of that. But I don't know, I think that that that just is kind of how I see the next couple of years playing out. I just think it's going to be more attractive at that point.
00;09;34;09 - 00;10;15;08
Pri
This is like, I think I'm just being like provocative and but I can't tell if some of this like, like the mythos thing, the fast takeoff, you know, the the AI growth and adoption statistics, all of that is like all preparation for the IPO and then like, well, and even just the fact that like where they're more and showing profitability and now you're talking about everyone talking about like token maxing is like the bad metric and people aren't using the tools correctly, but they kind of it's kind of like when Uber decided, like, hey, we're not going to subsidize the VC minimum, we're going to turn the spigot on and people are paying more, if
00;10;15;09 - 00;10;27;26
Pri
you like. That's happening with AI. And now they're like, they're promising these new models. I can't tell. This is all like comms and narrative for the IPO. And if this fast take off thing is actually real or not. Like, I'm like extremely cynical.
00;10;28;03 - 00;10;54;04
Aaron
I think it's real. Yeah. Yeah. I mean I mean, we saw some, you know, the core researchers leaving to kind of explore like recursive models. And I think, I think there's been indication from both OpenAI and anthropic that that's the case. And I don't think they're like coordinating around that. And I do think like whatever is going on around anthropic, you know, and how they want to position it.
00;10;54;05 - 00;11;16;09
Aaron
I do think that there's like, like an element of worry that they worry about. So I think they're kind of been pretty consistent in sounding the alarm related to that because, you know, they're so they believe that they're like very ethical minded in terms of how they're approaching it. Whether that's true or not is I don't think we'll know the answer to, but it feels like they at least believe that.
00;11;16;10 - 00;11;36;18
Chris
Yeah. Oh, we're so nervous about bringing about the end of the intelligence skills economy. Oh, we're so bothered by this as we keep plowing our way through through destructive cycles of work. Oh, we're so worried. It's like, come on, man. Okay, great. You're worried and you do nothing but keep plunging ahead. So congrats, Cassandra.
00;11;36;20 - 00;11;38;15
Aaron
Well, there's the show title. We got.
00;11;38;15 - 00;11;40;03
Chris
That right. Cassandra. Great.
00;11;40;05 - 00;11;59;01
Aaron
Yeah, that's a good one. I don't know, I just think, you know, putting aside like, all the positioning pre like, let's say even that you are right. It it does feel like the models are getting more powerful right. I mean they found that Zcash bug that has a bunch of talented developers floating around it at a minimum, whether they're good product people or not.
00;11;59;02 - 00;12;04;17
Aaron
Chris, like, I do think they're reasonably good to very, very, very good developers and or cryptographers.
00;12;04;17 - 00;12;16;10
Chris
So yeah, sure they are. That's not good enough. And that's the thing like, yeah, you know, crypto has to understand being good at one thing isn't good enough. It's just not how the world works.
00;12;16;13 - 00;12;29;12
Aaron
Yeah, but but it's not right. I mean, like, I don't know I just think okay. So like let's what is, let's, let's go through the fast takeoff model and like what, what is 2027 look like in your mind then Chris, like let's say that that is true.
00;12;29;15 - 00;13;00;15
Chris
I mean what 2027 looks like depends on what the back half of 26 looks like. I'm pretty I'm increasingly confident that we're just going to see a pullback. I think, you know, the smell on all of these IPOs is starting to wreak before they even get to market. I really wasn't kind of expecting such a strong pushback and such a strong awareness that, you know, space is basically valued at double what it should be and is pushing every possible lever to dump on retail.
00;13;00;15 - 00;13;26;28
Chris
And, you know, sometimes these things get noticed, sometimes they don't. This they clearly are getting noticed. And so I thought, you know, space would do really well. I thought whichever of the two IPOs the second one would do okay, but kind of tread water and the third one would start tanking. But like to put that alongside like some other things like look at look at FIFA in the World Cup.
00;13;26;28 - 00;13;48;06
Chris
They're like, oh no, you can't bring water anymore. Like we're going to see I think the maximum extent of grifter get exposed and called out over the summer, and we're just going to have a pullback in the fall. And then, you know, depending on what the midterms result in, we could see a hangover into January. And so I think two things are going to happen.
00;13;48;07 - 00;14;13;06
Chris
One is the diffusion of AI is going to slow down at the same time that the capabilities of AI are going to really scale up. Yeah. And so you're going to have this very strange moment, I think, of cognitive dissonance where if you just keep sticking to it and you know what you're doing and you just keep working through it, you're going to be an incredibly productive and fertile period.
00;14;13;06 - 00;14;29;07
Chris
But from like a macroeconomic performance. No, I don't think things are going to be all that hunky dory. And this isn't like, wrong. I mean, we see this, you know, within bubbles, bubbles pull back, bubbles resettle, then they start shooting back up again.
00;14;29;08 - 00;14;49;25
Aaron
Yeah. I mean, if those I mean, the nice thing about AI is it's so utility driven. Right. If the models I mean, and this is what makes it hard to kind of wrap your head around. But if, if they do go exponential, so picture like whatever model you're using or this is what I, I've been trying to do and assume it's like a thousand x better.
00;14;49;26 - 00;15;06;10
Aaron
Not like, you know, like 10% better, but like a thousand x better. Why would you stop using it, Chris? Like why would there be a pullback at that point? Like the utility is going, you know, like vertical, right. Like it's going to be even more useful. Like everything will be one shotted right.
00;15;06;11 - 00;15;20;17
Chris
Yeah. The pullback is going to happen because someone has to pay for it. And the majority of of the users aren't paying for it themselves. And so we're just starting to see this, like at the enterprise level in which they realized unlimited token budgets across the org.
00;15;20;18 - 00;15;30;28
Aaron
I see what you're saying. So you're saying because they they're like subsidizing the cost. Once the true cost of it is kind of shown to the market, they're just going to reject it. But I mean.
00;15;31;00 - 00;15;42;09
Pri
Like anthropic right now is like the true costs are starting to be shown and everyone's like, holy shit. And like that's that's because they have to show that because they want to go public and like show on paper that they're like, yeah.
00;15;42;10 - 00;16;02;21
Aaron
So they're like in there in like in this nether zone right where the true cost is abstracted and the value may not be lined up with the true cost. Right. That's today. But if it gets a thousand x better, wouldn't that utility kind of outweigh the cost at that point. And on top of that right it's 1000 x better.
00;16;02;21 - 00;16;22;11
Aaron
So whatever we're getting today is going to basically be open source or free right. Like whatever the frontier is today is going to be free. And so that seems pretty useful. And so like that massive bill that Amazon allegedly had a had a pay or you know, that's the rumor, right? Which probably didn't even hurt them, you know, financially.
00;16;22;12 - 00;16;29;00
Aaron
Like they're not going to have to pay that amount for the same type of utility kind of going forward.
00;16;29;01 - 00;16;53;20
Chris
And that's going to create its own set of dislocations in the market. Right. Like you have all these big labs out with their CapEx exposure. And then what you're going to see is, you know, a bunch of nimble orgs swinging over to like, you know, running deep seek for through open router or ramp or God knows where, right, right to cut their costs down.
00;16;53;20 - 00;17;24;10
Chris
And so, you know, like this is the kind of yo yoing of, you know, second of overheated market is say you get a pullback say these IPOs don't do well right. And then you have enterprise sending cutting. You know in Q4 as they refer to how to go you know how to go forward here. And then they go oh well either anthropic brings their rates down or we're using open source models, you know, hosted somewhere else.
00;17;24;12 - 00;17;46;09
Chris
They swing over in that direction and then you get you can get all the jitters about, oh my God, look at all this money. We pulled out a private credit and funding data centers. And now the people on the hook for those data centers, you know, are struggling. And that's like, you know, you can have multiple things happen and you can have huge technological advances, and you can have a market that doesn't know how to price them.
00;17;46;10 - 00;18;10;19
Aaron
Yeah. It's funny. You know, I walked I was like walking into the office today. And I had a thought which I think feels completely relevant. It's like the entire world is like a timing problem, right? Like, and it's just like timing problems all the way down. I mean, that's kind of what you're saying right here, Chris. Like, the things got maybe on the capital side, they either are too far ahead or that would be the argument for that.
00;18;10;19 - 00;18;42;11
Aaron
I don't fully buy that, but I hear it or it and then it will be it will go too far behind. Right. I feel like that's kind of where crypto is like people are now like overly bearish on crypto. There's just like a timing problems kind of everywhere. I don't know, I have a hard time maybe just I just feel like the utility pieces and being, you know, being a creator or, you know, leading an organization or business, I mean, if this stuff really does get like a thousand X better, like, and who knows if it does that, but just just for the sake of argument.
00;18;42;12 - 00;19;09;21
Aaron
Right. Or discussion, it gets a thousand x better. Like why would you not continue to like hit that that tool and want that tool? And if at the same time what we have now is, you know, orders of magnitude cheaper, like why would you also not continue to kind of use that? So I have a hard time seeing like where the demand anticipates when like the technological advancements are like happening literally like second by second, potentially like that's how you're going to get something a thousand x better, right?
00;19;09;23 - 00;19;16;24
Aaron
Like it's literally improving every second of every day 24 over seven. Right.
00;19;17;00 - 00;19;37;18
Chris
Yeah. Look, I know long enough like we're just arguing I think over time scales, like, no one's saying people are going to use less AI, right? You ask me what I think about, like, 27. And, you know, we were talking about macro. I mean, these are complex adaptive systems. And one of the fundamental properties of systems like that is like there is propagation delays.
00;19;37;18 - 00;19;57;14
Chris
There is, you know, like changes don't run through a system and impact, you know, all at the same time. It takes a while to to move through. It takes a while to form a response. That response then needs to surface back up. And so all these things can be happening all at the same time. And just the system can be out of shape.
00;19;57;14 - 00;20;21;01
Chris
And, you know, the market, each of prices, you know, on a long, a long term scale, but it's also priced in that long term already. And so that it has to respond to short term feedback as well. And so, you know, when you've got valuations this high and you've had this much run, you know the the response is going to be to the downside.
00;20;21;03 - 00;20;24;20
Chris
I mean you could you could have made the same argument to a railroad Darren.
00;20;24;23 - 00;20;42;17
Aaron
Yeah. You know it's I listen to this great podcast I guess there's a new book coming out about like the History of Bubbles, which I think is an interesting question. Right. And always kind of increasingly feels relevant. There was a couple points and I forgot the name of the book and the author. I'll look it up after I kind of make my my point here.
00;20;42;17 - 00;21;03;27
Aaron
And it really was that Chris, like it was just timing questions like they overbuilt out the railroads and then they thought that they would monetize faster than they did. And that's what caused the dislocation. And then with the internet, it was kind of the like the same thing. They just way overbuilt their like they just kept them building, building, building like way, way, way far ahead of the where the demand was.
00;21;03;28 - 00;21;22;15
Aaron
I think here with AI, the part that makes it like tricky in my mind is just like, I feel like there's just such a strong bid on the demand for its side. Like that's why I don't care. Like the market piece is definitely interesting, but I actually am curious, like on the tech side, like what 2027 looks like, because that I feel like is the most interesting question.
00;21;22;16 - 00;21;42;14
Aaron
Like, you know, we've been clanking away yelling at our boxes or speaking nicely to our boxes. In my case, Chris, you know, for the past year, right, many, many hours a day, we've seen the costs kind of kick up and then it's probably going to just drop down dramatically to do what we want to do, at least, like the way we're doing it today.
00;21;42;15 - 00;21;53;23
Aaron
Right. And so we're going to get new capabilities to do new things. I don't fully know what that looks or feels like, but I do know whatever we're doing today is going to be a heck of a lot cheaper next year. It feels like. And that's pretty cool. Like.
00;21;53;26 - 00;21;55;09
Pri
Why do you think it'll be cheaper?
00;21;55;09 - 00;21;57;11
Aaron
Because I think, you know, like when it's optimizing.
00;21;57;12 - 00;21;58;12
Pri
Figure it out.
00;21;58;15 - 00;22;00;10
Chris
Everything gets cheaper. It's technology.
00;22;00;11 - 00;22;01;29
Pri
Technology gets cheaper.
00;22;02;01 - 00;22;14;22
Aaron
We're kind of like speed running like decades of tech. You know why? Why do things get cheaper? Pretty I don't fully know the answer, but I guess it's just like optimizations, right. And improvements.
00;22;14;25 - 00;22;16;17
Pri
Figured out. It's just how it is. Yeah.
00;22;16;19 - 00;22;35;08
Aaron
Yeah. So like, you know, right now, like, I'm sure there's a bunch of really bright people inside these hyperscalers that are just trying to figure out how to deliver this cheaper with the same level of intelligence. I mean, now you're going to have this crazy system, whether that's available to the public, whether that's nationalized. We can get into that because that's coming up again.
00;22;35;08 - 00;22;57;05
Aaron
But like, I think it probably will get cheaper and not just like a little bit cheaper, like really cheap, right? It'll be, you know, effectively free. So if the cost let's say like $100, $200 a month. Now if it gets so, so much cheaper, the subsidy issue almost kind of evaporates. Right? They're going to deliver to you like opus 4.8 or whatever.
00;22;57;05 - 00;23;18;18
Aaron
And it finally will only cost $200 a month from their vantage point. And maybe that's the bet they're kind of making. And so if that's the case, then, you know, why is there like this massive repricing that kind of happens inside the markets. Does that make sense. Yeah. Let me look look up that book. And like maybe that's the bet they're making is like yeah we can subsidize it a bit today.
00;23;18;19 - 00;23;35;10
Aaron
Yeah. We can give you $10,000 of compute for 200 bucks, because we know in a year that we'll be able to give you that same utility, like from a much, much cheaper model. And it will only cost us $100 a month to deliver that. And that doesn't feel wrong to me. If you're in this like fast take off model.
00;23;35;11 - 00;23;41;07
Aaron
Okay, maybe maybe they're wrong about the fast takeoff like that would be that would be the assumption that would fall apart there. Right.
00;23;41;09 - 00;24;13;20
Chris
Well, here, think of it this way. If we're arguing right now that the bottleneck is pricing, I think that bottleneck starts clearing itself up into Q1 next year, the next bottleneck that is going to come on the scene is unless we have AGI by then, you're going to have a real massive K shaped skill gap in which the people who can actually take advantage of the better models are going to be extremely like.
00;24;13;22 - 00;24;36;15
Chris
It's going to be a very small group, like the models keep getting better, but you can only really take advantage of that right now. If you're capable of operating at the same level that they are actually at a higher level, and that you can drive them like these models can't drive themselves in terms of coming up with novel ideas, coming up with complex system design, right?
00;24;36;16 - 00;25;01;23
Chris
Like they're very, very good at execution. They're not a good at origination. And so that's going to be the next issue. And I don't think the model classes are going to be able to overcome that gap by the time pricing settles. And so that's the other issue I see on the horizon is 2020. In 2027 is you you will have like cheap and, you know, let's say three x better model classes.
00;25;01;23 - 00;25;07;17
Chris
And we have today. But the ability to steer and wield those is going to become gating.
00;25;07;20 - 00;25;28;27
Aaron
Yeah. So I think that feels right. But don't you like again in like fast takeoff land if it is 1000 x better. And again who knows if it does, that doesn't mean that you know, us mere humans will be able to to touch those like the best, best of the best models. But don't you think it would get better at some of that system design?
00;25;28;27 - 00;25;31;18
Aaron
Chris. Because it's a known problem, right?
00;25;31;19 - 00;25;36;21
Chris
Inevitably, yes. Like I'm just thinking like in terms of phasing.
00;25;36;22 - 00;26;03;22
Aaron
Then let's say it does. Right? So let's say somewhere along that thousand x ramp up and improvement, it gets better at system design. Right. And it also gets cheaper. It also gets like less prone to error. So all those three things are there. They should be able to deliver that into the market at like a reasonable cost. And so at that point, you know, I think you're right that, you know, there's people that are better at wielding these systems because they spent more time with it.
00;26;03;23 - 00;26;20;03
Aaron
They have like natural skills, like they're more systems thinkers, which I do think is like the it's kind of rooting down to like that most or one of the one of the most important skills. But if it's cheap enough, then people begin to learn that, right? Like that skill set will begin to diffuse a bit more. No you don't.
00;26;20;05 - 00;26;24;04
Aaron
You don't think so. You don't think it's a learnable skill. It's just like a.
00;26;24;11 - 00;26;27;26
Chris
It's a learner skill up to a certain point.
00;26;28;00 - 00;26;29;09
Aaron
That feels right to me.
00;26;29;12 - 00;26;47;25
Pri
But what if what if it becomes super paternalistic so that people are able to use it in a way that's like, you know, flipping through an iPhone? You don't have to think about it. It's just like the user experience is so, like seamless and like the human, it's connected to the human psyche so well that like, it actually is useful for everyone.
00;26;47;26 - 00;26;50;08
Aaron
We just plugged into the matrix at that point.
00;26;50;10 - 00;26;51;24
Pri
It's not like that right now.
00;26;51;28 - 00;27;15;24
Chris
Yeah. For for that to happen, these things don't need to get a thousand x better. They need to be able to take on properties they don't have today. That's fair. Models are not opinionated. Models don't have creative sparks. Like. And so to get to where you're talking about like they really like just need to to radically level up.
00;27;15;24 - 00;27;21;02
Chris
And I can see that happening. But what you're really talking about is AGI at that point.
00;27;21;02 - 00;27;39;14
Aaron
That's what I think is coming. Right. Like if that in that fast take off thought exercise. Right. And again, don't know if that's going to happen, but there's at least more murmurs about that. Like you're getting to that point Chris. Right. Like you're going to have AGI, which I think should have some of these capabilities because it's a known problem, right.
00;27;39;15 - 00;27;56;29
Aaron
Like that's the big issue. And that's why, you know, I've been like kind of like like always keeping pulse on the math stuff because that is like it's not like a traditional form of creativity in the sense of like making a great work of art or a great movie book, etc.. But there is like creativity in finding those solutions.
00;27;56;29 - 00;28;00;28
Aaron
I don't think there's just brute force, brute forcing solutions there.
00;28;01;00 - 00;28;35;23
Chris
Yeah. And so you need that spark. And I just maybe in 28 they'll possess that. I think what will more likely happen is we'll have an intermediate stage in which these things can act upon already built systems and extrapolate and push them in unexpected directions versus creating net new things out of whole cloth like I do. I don't think you just dramatically jump from, oh my God, this is the best coder on earth to oh, Aggies.
00;28;35;23 - 00;29;00;04
Chris
Myself and humans have no place in the world anymore. Like you need a middle ground there. And that middle ground is taking a thing that humans had their hands on, that they constructed, that was very opinionated, filled with creativity, drive, need, put that out into the world. And then AI can like, you know, start recursively improving over it can start building a top of it.
00;29;00;04 - 00;29;28;28
Chris
I think that, you know, that to me is probably the story of 2028 is not. Oh my God, these systems are inventing entire new classes of things just because we talked into our iPhone. But oh my God, these things humans built, humans created. Now the machines are taking them into like, you know, levels that a human couldn't have done, but it's just built upon that initial, you know, spark, seed, whatever that magic was or the thing to begin with.
00;29;29;00 - 00;29;31;28
Aaron
Yeah, I think next year is going to be so weird.
00;29;32;00 - 00;29;33;12
Pri
I think it's going to be really weird.
00;29;33;14 - 00;29;44;02
Aaron
I feel like you may people may not even start caring about the market. It just feels like we're getting like the ultimate societal stress test coming, starting to see where things are fracturing a bit.
00;29;44;04 - 00;30;02;22
Chris
Yeah, well, you know, if you can read like everyone's for one case and you know, the stock stock ends up down 40% from its IPO. Yeah. You know you're going to see a lot of disillusionment. And you know just full on cynicism varying its editor.
00;30;02;23 - 00;30;11;28
Aaron
Well I think you we've been feeling that for a years at this point. Right. The cynicism. So I feel like those folks will feel really empowered at that point in time.
00;30;11;28 - 00;30;29;19
Chris
So look at us going straight into AI macro doom. After we did an NFT episode and all of our listeners responded clearly, our listeners want NFT talk, and here we are not all that excited or engaged with the 720 ones.
00;30;29;21 - 00;30;31;17
Pri
Speak for yourself. Speak for yourself.
00;30;31;18 - 00;30;39;07
Aaron
I mean, I still like them. I saw the feedback. I mean, like I'm still closely paying attention to all that stuff.
00;30;39;09 - 00;31;01;13
Pri
I will, I will say the digital art movement. I don't know, maybe because I just had a coffee. So I'm like fresh off of it. But I feel like the energy is like pulled more away from crypto and into AI creative pursuits. Like a lot of the artists that were popular space are starting to, like, leverage the tools and like, I don't know if they're putting them on NFTs.
00;31;01;14 - 00;31;28;10
Pri
It seems like natural that one would if the market were there. But I do think, like a lot of these like artists that we are familiar with who had drops on art blocks, they're starting to get like creative residencies at anthropic or like the big labs. There is like there's like a big art show that's happening in in New York, and it's literally trying to highlight artists that are using AI tools that like, might even be like novice artists.
00;31;28;12 - 00;31;57;00
Pri
I just was having coffee with someone who's putting that together. So like in that sense, I think that there is actually quite a lot happening. And so so I actually think there is something happening, but I don't know if it's like in the 721 market or like the market dynamic doesn't seem to be there. But like from a digital production, new tools, new creative artists getting minted using AI, I mean using even like the political AI videos as an example.
00;31;57;03 - 00;32;16;08
Pri
I do think there are like new quote artists that are using the medium that have been largely undiscovered, or they were like in this scene and crossed over. But I do think that there is activity. It's just not from a market perspective, like really at all, which maybe that will translate into a market thing. But it's just.
00;32;16;11 - 00;32;17;08
Aaron
I think it will.
00;32;17;13 - 00;32;21;15
Pri
It just so if isn't doing well, then like the other stuff doesn't do well.
00;32;21;17 - 00;32;35;05
Aaron
Yeah, I think that's a piece of it too. But it sounds like outside of birthing AGI there, the the AI folks want to be the, the next wave of the Medicis. Is that it? Pretty. Yeah. So what I'm hearing.
00;32;35;07 - 00;32;37;10
Pri
Yeah. But I did want to add actually.
00;32;37;17 - 00;32;44;12
Aaron
But their preferred medium is is is AI slop videos. I think we'll be slop at some point.
00;32;44;12 - 00;32;53;16
Pri
But I mean it's it's not going to be slop. You know, the next box backrooms movie like which came from the internet is probably going to be some sort of.
00;32;53;18 - 00;33;12;15
Aaron
Well that that's like in fast takeoff. I do think all the media stuff like gets much cheaper too, because it is a little bit too pricey to play around with. Like for the lots of different folks gets much faster. It's a little too slow and probably crosses that Rubicon in terms of, you know, just in terms of quality, right?
00;33;12;17 - 00;33;18;14
Aaron
Like it won't be like the it won't be considered, you know, slop at that point. It just would be considered media.
00;33;18;15 - 00;33;39;17
Pri
Yeah, I agree, but yeah, I mean, my point is I just think I think like, yes, a 721 market seems like slow. But I do think that there is like a whole new, like artistic pursuit in the group of people that are coming through AI, which is getting me excited. And I'm sure, you know, they'll start using 721 as a means of like provenance or just like holding like a container for their work.
00;33;39;18 - 00;33;50;24
Pri
Like that's fundamentally what it is. But I just don't know if that like that, that market will, will revive as a result of these, these new creators. But I am excited about that. The tech and art stuff.
00;33;50;26 - 00;34;01;23
Chris
All I'm going to say here is that the AI magic's preferred artistic medium is freaking everyone out. That's true. It's not making art freaking out of society at large.
00;34;01;24 - 00;34;03;15
Aaron
Why do they want to do that?
00;34;03;19 - 00;34;08;26
Aaron
Like, I don't know. Did you guys see Tyler Cowen who's like that? George Mason.
00;34;08;29 - 00;34;10;07
Pri
The newest thing?
00;34;10;08 - 00;34;24;15
Aaron
No. He was just like talking about AI. It was like, very sober. And it was just like, look like. It's almost like what you were saying, Chris. Like, the diffusion challenges are real. Like, just because you got a great tool doesn't mean it's everywhere. It's going to be a long ramp to kind of do that. This stuff's look pretty useful.
00;34;24;15 - 00;34;40;15
Aaron
It's going to make a whole bunch of stuff more efficient. That tends to be good for people. It just was like a very, like levelheaded kind of account from it. And I just feel like you get the opposite from, you know, at least from one of the one of the model providers. Right. And it really does impact people.
00;34;40;17 - 00;34;43;11
Aaron
And it just it really is kind of a shame.
00;34;43;11 - 00;34;44;01
Pri
I did.
00;34;44;01 - 00;34;44;10
Aaron
Read it.
00;34;44;15 - 00;34;45;00
Aaron
Like we could be.
00;34;45;01 - 00;34;59;05
Aaron
Having a conversation that's literally like that. Like, oh, cool, we have this new tool. It's going to take a long time for it to get around, but it could be reasonably useful in your job. It's kind of dumb still and not perfect. It takes a lot of like back and forth to use it. You should try it out.
00;34;59;06 - 00;35;09;19
Aaron
It's probably going to be more relevant in the next couple of months, years of your life. Like what? That would be a completely alternative reality that we have.
00;35;09;22 - 00;35;21;04
Chris
It's because these people have like a very limited worldview and can extrapolate that out. Like, have you ever bought $500,000 worth of paper? I have like.
00;35;21;11 - 00;35;23;14
Aaron
Literally physical paper. Yeah.
00;35;23;15 - 00;35;33;24
Chris
Like paper to print pamphlets on. Yes. Like, have you ever bought like multiple reams of it to get pricing discounts and then you're sitting around with like 18 months of paper supply?
00;35;33;24 - 00;35;35;09
Aaron
I have not, Chris.
00;35;35;12 - 00;36;10;11
Chris
Well, this is how the world works. You know, like it doesn't work like software where, my God, I discovered this thing in a lab, and then tomorrow the whole world's going to have it. Like, there are, like, in the physical world, they're a serious, like diffusion and run time lags. And I mean, that's just a disconnect coming from out of them is like, you know, they're not thinking in terms of like trucking leases, you know, like they're thinking in terms of like, you know, the environment in which they're like exposed to 80 hours a week.
00;36;10;17 - 00;36;11;00
Aaron
Yeah.
00;36;11;02 - 00;36;30;29
Aaron
And yeah, it's just timing problems all the way down. I'm pumped about there the long term for the NFT markets. And maybe, maybe this is like some of the new energy that comes in pre related to that. I do I do think it will like loop back to NFTs. It's I think I just think it's the same thing right.
00;36;31;00 - 00;36;55;12
Aaron
Like it's just like, you know, in a world of like abundant software at a minimum with like all the caveats that Chris was noting, like, you know, like having like a provably scarce digital asset, I think is just going to feel more natural. And then the users, I think will come from that, right? Like, it's just the right solution for the job or the job of what's coming around the Bend Fair.
00;36;55;15 - 00;37;22;19
Pri
I guess the one thing I guess I would add to that, just like artistic movement and pursuit, is like, I share this article with you guys, but like I've been thinking more about it. Like obviously the all these IPOs is going to just create an absolute like massive wealth event for I mean, I think like there's going to be hundreds if not thousands of millionaires and then at least hundreds of Deca millionaires and a couple of billionaires that get minted from all this.
00;37;22;22 - 00;37;49;17
Pri
And so I was reading this article a couple of weeks back that was basically like the third wave of American philanthropy. Like, obviously like, you know, the Carnegie family was responsible for Andrew Carnegie was responsible for, like, all of these libraries. And so the author of this article is basically just like saying that this is going to be so mean, like the amount of money that's going to be added into philanthropy and the spend is going to be like probably the most that we've ever seen, like again in a so.
00;37;49;20 - 00;37;50;16
Aaron
Did they they.
00;37;50;16 - 00;37;52;04
Aaron
Guess where it's going to go pretty like what.
00;37;52;05 - 00;37;58;00
Pri
They said, 37 $100 billion per year intended for philanthropic spend in the near future.
00;37;58;08 - 00;37;59;15
Aaron
But what does it come like?
00;37;59;15 - 00;38;05;19
Aaron
What do you think the these types of new benefactors will be interested in? I mean, that that's going to have a profound impact on people.
00;38;05;19 - 00;38;26;06
Pri
It could, it could, you know, it says $50 billion could fully fund annual budgets of the following organizations six gate foundations, 67 coefficient giving types of foundations, 100 gig wells, 330 Ark institutes, 5000 institutes for progress. So I mean, it could go anywhere from think tanks to art. I think it's just it's just so much money that it's going to go everywhere.
00;38;26;08 - 00;38;26;17
Pri
Like it's.
00;38;26;24 - 00;38;28;11
Aaron
Going, well, you need think tanks.
00;38;28;12 - 00;38;33;00
Pri
I mean, I think people always want to fund ideas like and research.
00;38;33;01 - 00;38;37;02
Chris
Well, you have to fund ideas to give your propaganda a veneer of respectability.
00;38;37;04 - 00;38;37;22
Pri
Correct.
00;38;37;23 - 00;38;43;20
Aaron
It's not going to go to quest quest for longevity. It's not going to be just a peptide peptide packs.
00;38;43;21 - 00;39;02;14
Pri
I mean, I do think longevity. I would not be surprised if a lot of those people put in a ton of money on like, longevity and health research. Like, I already see that in crypto, the amount of crypto people who have made a tremendous amount of money on, for example, I met this guy who made, you know, and his entire life now is going into like investing in longevity.
00;39;02;16 - 00;39;09;03
Pri
They fully pivoted into longevity. So I don't think that that's like unreasonable.
00;39;09;05 - 00;39;41;28
Chris
I would be bullish on philanthropy that has a net positive benefit to the giver on a personal level and not on a societal, organizational level. You know, like when you talk about what the Carnegie's or the Rockefellers or, you know, the robber barons of your did a lot of their giving, right, was around societal based organizations because we lived in a different world.
00;39;41;28 - 00;40;10;08
Chris
We lived in a world where, like status and like we're in a bolt post bowling alone in America world in which a lot of these civic organizations and the, you know, the glow they provide to benefactors and patrons is waned. And in a similar way that, you know, the NFT space, there's there's been this confrontation of, well, why aren't the tech moguls buying our JPEGs, and why do they not care about art?
00;40;10;09 - 00;40;20;09
Chris
Right? Like I think you'll see that extend further and further out. And so will there be more contributed philanthropy? Probably. Will it go in all the places you expect? Probably not.
00;40;20;10 - 00;40;44;14
Aaron
You know, a question I was or a thought that popped into my head, Chris, which is millennials are about to enter into their midlife crisis. And so I when just to pivot this a little bit. What do you think happens then. Because I feel like the closest parallels, like when boomers went into midlife crisis and they they kind of went a little crazy, like, what's the what's the millennial midlife crisis going to look like?
00;40;44;17 - 00;40;47;03
Chris
Ask the millennial on the on the pod.
00;40;47;05 - 00;41;05;13
Pri
I mean, you know, we were talking about this in office. So part of the boomer life crisis was driven by divorce rates being like, I mean, I don't even the Silent Generation even have a divorce rate. Like, I don't even know when divorce became, like, as heavily popular as it did with the blueberry generation.
00;41;05;13 - 00;41;09;17
Aaron
But the other generation was too busy to in class the entire time.
00;41;09;22 - 00;41;32;25
Pri
They like, I don't I don't even know what their rates. I don't even know if we have like media on that divorce rate, but or not media statistics on that divorce rate probably. But I haven't looked it up. But part of the reason, like the boomer divorce rate was so or why people had midlife crisis as boomers is because the divorce was higher and as a result, people wanted to reinvent themselves.
00;41;32;25 - 00;41;50;26
Pri
They lost weight, they wanted to get fancy cars, they got better clothes like you had like the boomer consumer ism kind of take off in midlife because people had a new lease on life. And so millennials are looking at the divorce rates. I don't know how much divorce rates actually impact the midlife thing, but so I'm putting maybe too much emphasis on that.
00;41;50;26 - 00;42;14;02
Pri
But like the millennial divorce rate is much lower, partially because like a they aren't getting married as much. They get married later. So like, you kind of don't necessarily feel the need to get a divorce and you're getting very later. And so you're seeing like 25 to 30% divorce rate. So I do wonder and they're having kids later is like, what does a midlife millennial crisis look like?
00;42;14;04 - 00;42;31;27
Pri
I mean, I'm sure, you know, peptides, longevity that feels like obvious, but I'm trying to think of like other things. And you have like the GLP one phenomenon, which is like going to focus more on esthetics for everyone, including, I'm sure, millennials in their midlife. I'm rambling. I guess I'm still trying to figure it out. I was I thought it was a good question.
00;42;31;28 - 00;42;37;12
Pri
Trying to think, I mean, I'm almost at my midlife. I'm like ten years away from that. So let's see.
00;42;37;13 - 00;42;48;26
Aaron
Yeah. Well, I think it kind of like starts now. So it's an interesting question. I just feel like that would be like a shift of some sort. Just a the philanthropy, the philanthropy pieces pretty just kind of reminded me of that question.
00;42;48;27 - 00;43;09;07
Pri
Yeah. Well, it's a good point also because like there, you know, this is unfortunate, but like a lot of their millennial parents will start passing away and the wealth transfer is going to be pretty tremendous like from boomers to. So it's like what like is art become popular especially with AI doing a lot of cognitive labor. Like, do more millennials get into the arts and humanities?
00;43;09;07 - 00;43;18;19
Pri
I don't know, it's kind of an interesting thought there to like, you mix in midlife plus getting a lot of cash. Like, what does that end up looking like?
00;43;18;20 - 00;43;24;16
Chris
It looks like buying a place in which silence surrounds you.
00;43;24;19 - 00;43;26;02
Pri
Silence and privacy.
00;43;26;03 - 00;43;32;11
Aaron
Yeah, I think that could be a piece of it. I don't think it's like an exuberant one, like the boomers. I think it's almost like the inverse of it. Right?
00;43;32;12 - 00;43;54;23
Chris
Yeah. One thing you got to remember about the boomers is how simple the world was when they came of age and like what they gravitated towards once they had money. Like, I'm I'm reading just kids right now. It's book club for the month. It's good. It is. I'm only a third of the way through it. Right. But like, look at Patti Smith's life.
00;43;54;24 - 00;44;16;13
Chris
Like, you know, she was some kid in Pennsylvania, Jersey. She worked in a factory. She decided she wanted to be an artist. She moved to the city. She has no place to live. Like. She just sleeps in parks for a while until she, like, randomly like me to Maple Thorpe. And then they squat in some place, and then they get their own shitty apartment, like the like that world, right?
00;44;16;14 - 00;44;42;05
Chris
Very, very simple. Very, like, narrow in a lot of different ways. And so Harley-Davidson jet skis, corvettes like Boomer toys. Right. Like that was kind of just a reaction to what was available. And you know, so now like the market's being flooded with lake houses and you know, all these things that like are just boomer remnants that no one really wants.
00;44;42;08 - 00;45;10;12
Chris
I could maybe see like Gen Z who seems to really be into physical type stuff, you know, returning to that sort of boomer mindset. But yeah, Xers and millennials, like, they just they grew up in a much different world of boomers. And so a they have like a whole new set of like novel things to captivate them and kind of get caught up in, in that web of but also like the reacting against, you know what the boomers like blue all their money on.
00;45;10;13 - 00;45;17;13
Chris
It's like, oh cool, dad, you bought a $700,000 RV and it sits in your driveway 11.5 months of the year.
00;45;17;16 - 00;45;23;23
Pri
Yeah, it's like the xx. The x s is X is kind of disgusting.
00;45;23;24 - 00;45;35;27
Aaron
Did you guys just see that Hunter Biden just responded to a G money tweet? By the way, the timeline is so weird. This is like the weirdest timeline I think I've ever seen.
00;45;35;28 - 00;45;38;04
Chris
What's going on with Hunter and G.
00;45;38;06 - 00;45;43;28
Pri
Wait, what? I'm on it right now and I've dying.
00;45;44;00 - 00;45;46;02
Aaron
It's a friend of the pod. Yeah.
00;45;46;04 - 00;45;52;06
Pri
Holy shit. Jiminy is going to help Hunter Biden with the crypto vote. Basically, is what I've just learned.
00;45;52;06 - 00;46;19;09
Aaron
When he runs for president. Oh, man. It's wild. I mean, that is the best part about it is just such a Twitter. It's just builds these completely random environments. Sorry. I mean, to derail your point there, Chris. I think you're right on like a lot of that stuff. I think it's a super interesting question, though, because I do feel like when the boomers hit midlife and however they express it and the reasons that they express that, super fascinating.
00;46;19;09 - 00;46;41;13
Aaron
It just like a lot of things kind of shifted culturally. And it feels like we're kind of like at the precipice, not only for like a technological shift, like what we were saying before, but like also like a cultural and esthetics one. Yeah. Just because it's it's such a it's a huge and important group of people, you know, and they do have their own experiences and they are going to collectively like leave their imprint on the world.
00;46;41;13 - 00;46;56;10
Aaron
And I'm just kind of curious what that looks like. And yeah, it just feels like it's coming. And I don't know if everybody is kind of like, recognize that fact yet. I just think it's kind of like a natural cadence in the what circadian rhythm of of someone's life.
00;46;56;12 - 00;47;08;24
Chris
Yeah. Another like wild card out there is I think we are going to see a collapse of producers and consumers into one. And it's going to throw people like really for a loop.
00;47;09;00 - 00;47;10;27
Aaron
What do you mean. What does that look like?
00;47;10;28 - 00;47;12;26
Chris
Like you're an audience of yourself.
00;47;12;27 - 00;47;15;01
Aaron
Oh, like you're creating for yourself.
00;47;15;03 - 00;47;39;26
Chris
Yeah, you're keeping yourself busy. You're geeking out on shit. Like, you know, you can program your own entertainment. And so then what happens to a generation of influencers? What happens to movies, what you know, anything that is built on a one to many audience relationship. What happens as that audience steadily erodes and terms inward into, like their own navel gazing interests?
00;47;40;01 - 00;47;41;01
Chris
I mean, like.
00;47;41;02 - 00;47;41;27
Aaron
Yeah, I could.
00;47;41;27 - 00;47;55;01
Chris
See you could ask like what? What a millennial midlife crisis looks like. I don't know, maybe in ten years they're building their own worlds, you know, they're they're creating their own, like, craft brewery sims and like, stomp clap albums. I don't.
00;47;55;01 - 00;47;58;24
Aaron
Know, I'm, like, vicariously living through the simulation.
00;47;58;27 - 00;48;04;08
Pri
I don't know of, like, I'm getting I don't know, I think I think it's like people want community and connectivity.
00;48;04;09 - 00;48;06;29
Chris
You say that because they're the right things to say. Pre.
00;48;07;02 - 00;48;26;20
Pri
No, dude, I actually feel that like I like want to host more. I like want to throw like like I like like I don't know. Again maybe it's being fresh off getting married and like seeing all the people I love in a space. But like, I really feel like that is actually what happiness in life is about. Not like being, like tied into my own little silo.
00;48;26;20 - 00;48;27;21
Pri
And I could see that being.
00;48;27;23 - 00;48;28;15
Aaron
I think that's right.
00;48;28;16 - 00;48;33;28
Pri
I think I could see that being like a part of my own midlife crisis. It's like wanting to do things more with people.
00;48;33;29 - 00;48;50;00
Aaron
I'm going to bridge this. I think you're both right. I think that that simulation thing is, is going to happen, Chris, because I kind of feel like the bits of that, like sometimes when you're like programing and building stuff, you like feel that like you're kind of making it for yourself. You do feel like a craftsman in that person in that regard.
00;48;50;00 - 00;49;09;13
Aaron
But, you know, to me it almost feels like just the craziness and like attention grabbing parts of the internet, just they're going to be they're going to be out competed. And that I think is healthy. Like maybe that's what kind of receptors things in different ways. Like you're not going to want to spend as much time on the internet.
00;49;09;18 - 00;49;32;03
Aaron
You like kind of voyeuristic, like collecting information and interacting with people. It still will be there. But I just think one, it's going to get intermediate more by these AI systems. Just to deal with the flood of information to you may not want to spend as much time like poking around. I feel that way just because you have a more fun thing to do, which is like build or create something which is such a great feeling.
00;49;32;03 - 00;49;49;20
Aaron
And three I think once you're like not glued to your, you know, your screen as much just because it's not healthy, you found better ways to spend your time. I do think pretty like receptors you back into like the real world. So maybe all three can be true at the same time.
00;49;49;23 - 00;50;17;28
Chris
That's true. Yeah. No, they for sure can. And like pre you're entering a life stage probably in which you're going to be spending a lot more time outwards and interacting with people that that shifts as your kids get older. Really. Yes. Like my entire social group right in my neighborhood has drifted apart. Part of that right was Covid.
00;50;18;00 - 00;50;44;29
Chris
Part of that was a little political craziness. And, you know, people having fights with each other and falling out and fracturing the group. But a huge, huge part of that is as your kids get older, right, you realize a lot of your socializing was, in fact, so that all your kids could entertain each other and you could take the burden off of having to be a parent in that moment, because they're all in the basement, they're all in the park, they're all in the backyard.
00;50;44;29 - 00;51;17;09
Chris
And you can have some, like adult time. And like as your kids get older, you need that less and less. You also happen to get busier around, like managing your kids activities, taking them to this out of the other, or making sure you know they're keeping up with their schoolwork or, you know, whatever it is like. At least for me, there was definitely an arc, you know, where as my kids got older, my social group got together less and less.
00;51;17;11 - 00;51;19;03
Pri
Yeah. Damn.
00;51;19;05 - 00;51;24;16
Chris
There's a lot to do in the world. There's a lot of things that pull at you. There's a lot that asks of your time.
00;51;24;22 - 00;51;30;17
Pri
So less about my, like, maybe it's less about my midlife and more just like the stage of life I'm in.
00;51;30;19 - 00;51;51;28
Aaron
Well, that's what I'm saying. I think there's just, like, some structural things that you just can't get around. It's just like how humans operate. And so I think some of those, like structural movements are starting to happen. And then it's going to be the flip side, right. Like unfortunately like like folks parents were going to run into health issues and understandably and obviously things that are sadder than that.
00;51;51;29 - 00;52;21;01
Aaron
Yeah. So I don't know, it just feels like there's like a couple like, like curves that are going to be bending together like this. Like I ask, you know, curve, which feels like it could be, I mean, could be accelerating, which is super interesting. There's kind of like this, like looming like millennial midlife that's coming. And then kind of related to that, it's kind of like the, the exiting of like the very important kind of boomer boomer generation, too.
00;52;21;02 - 00;52;32;01
Aaron
It's like all kind of hitting at the same time. So I guess the only thing and the only way to to resolve this is to nationalize all the AI companies. Right? That's the solution. Once we do that, they'll all be fine.
00;52;32;05 - 00;52;34;15
Pri
The Bernie solution right now, yes.
00;52;34;15 - 00;52;40;24
Chris
Let's create more contested honey pots. Yeah. Because that's going oh so well for this country.
00;52;40;25 - 00;53;02;13
Pri
I know I don't have that much I don't know. I know we don't have that much time on the pod, but I'm curious like just quickly like, how do you feel about this idea of like the US sovereign wealth fund potentially owning equity in like, these AI companies is that it's kind of a weird concept. No, I don't I haven't tried to parse out the pros and cons of it, but it feels like a little extreme.
00;53;02;15 - 00;53;22;27
Aaron
Yeah. I think, you know, I'm a very mixed minds on all this stuff. You know, I think there's been a desire from lots of folks to have the US engage in more like direct industrial policy. I think part of that, and maybe this is informed by a former colleague of mine that was looking at like us and innovation and how that manufacturing process works.
00;53;22;27 - 00;53;46;04
Aaron
I think there's like some notion that the US has not had industrial policy in some capacity, like the US is not like the government hasn't intervened in markets, which it clearly has. But there's like a long history of that, if you like, start looking at the history. This just feels like the next chapter pre. And I think the debate is, is it look more like, you know, like the government takes over or run something or is it kind of more market based.
00;53;46;04 - 00;54;18;06
Aaron
And I don't know where that lands, but that feels like that's where the battle line is right now and that's where the fight is. But like the practical, like impact just is, I think, a little bit less controversial, which is just like, you know, governments assemble capital and they kind of point that capital towards pushing society, hopefully in a positive direction, whether you want to use that through market based forces or through like state run forces, like that's obviously really hard and challenging questions, but it's going to happen one way or another.
00;54;18;07 - 00;54;39;02
Aaron
And that was kind of my read on some of those conversations. And I think it is to kind of engage in a dialog. You clearly have folks that want the state to run it. There's, you know, obviously many, many bad reasons for having state run enterprise, but they're pushing it, right, like they want that. And so there's going to have to be a counter reaction for folks that don't want that to happen.
00;54;39;03 - 00;55;08;09
Chris
It's a terrible idea. The I'm fine with the ultimate aim. The mechanism is absolutely horrible. The government should not own private enterprises. Full stop. Yeah, it's it's just a terrible idea. Up and down the board. Now, a more durable model should be that the government taxes the usage of these things and directs that towards social benefit programs, like it's a cost of doing business.
00;55;08;10 - 00;55;12;25
Chris
If you want to run businesses that don't involve human beings, you pay the tax.
00;55;12;27 - 00;55;14;16
Pri
I think that's going to happen.
00;55;14;17 - 00;55;15;24
Chris
That's fine. Let it happen.
00;55;15;24 - 00;55;19;16
Pri
I definitely think they're going to get taxed more and then that'll be like partially like the UBI.
00;55;19;17 - 00;55;40;29
Aaron
Well, I mean, yeah, I mean that that piece is is fair right. Like, I mean I think even in Illinois. Either proposing a bill I don't remember the say to play with it to like tax crypto transactions. Right. Because they are much cheaper. And it's like a way to, you know, for the government to capture some of that for itself and hopefully distribute that in like a productive way to other people.
00;55;41;01 - 00;55;58;24
Aaron
Yeah. I mean, I'm assuming the same thing is going to happen with AI. Maybe. But then it's like now it's like you're in the details. So like like that's fun to kind of like get deep in the details on that. But like the government's going to get a piece of that action. Whatever it is, it always does. You know, it's it's it's the ultimate monopolist.
00;55;59;00 - 00;55;59;19
Pri
Yeah.
00;55;59;20 - 00;56;09;22
Chris
You want to sit at your keyboard behind an impenetrable fortress of security. You got to pay the bill for that, right? That's the simple operating reality.
00;56;09;26 - 00;56;27;04
Aaron
Yeah. Or just to deal with what you were describing, Chris, which is like, maybe there's, like a unique skill set and that a lot of people can benefit other people's lives using that skill set and use AI better than others. And we want to make sure more people are taken care of. Right? Because that leads to stability and it doesn't lead to all this friction.
00;56;27;04 - 00;56;31;08
Aaron
So maybe it just is kind of as simple as that.
00;56;31;11 - 00;56;50;10
Pri
Fair enough. I also like a podcast where apparently like an initial thought around, just like social benefit and government was like giving stock to everyone around the company. So like if everyone got like a piece of OpenAI stock and could grow with it, it's kind of like the Trump program for kids, except for they would just do that for like every adult.
00;56;50;16 - 00;56;52;10
Chris
Which misaligned incentives.
00;56;52;17 - 00;56;52;28
Pri
Yeah.
00;56;52;29 - 00;57;09;22
Chris
If Sam A is forced to dilute himself down and share that burden with everyone else, the first thing Sam A is going to do is we use a lot of OpenAI and start a second organization. Yeah, that's why I'm more of a fan of usage based taxes. Like you need a constant.
00;57;09;24 - 00;57;13;14
Aaron
I mean, isn't that world coin? Didn't he do that already? Chris?
00;57;13;16 - 00;57;38;14
Chris
I mean, I think he's got like direct investments and like chip fabs that Saudi Arabia is thinning up. And some, you know like God knows what the opacity of his his, you know, portfolios look like I know interest in going there. The larger point is anytime you create, you know, incentives to get around the system, that's all we do these days.
00;57;38;18 - 00;58;00;08
Chris
You know, in a lot of ways, like the entire political world nowadays is have a big fight over something. If ultimately you have to give it to people, then you do it in such a regulatory captured way that it actually doesn't really go to people. And, you know, UnitedHealthCare just sticks its giant, you know, pipe into the new pot of money and sucks at all of it.
00;58;00;10 - 00;58;13;16
Aaron
I think we're going to sort all this out. I too like technology pre I saw your tweet and I know maybe maybe there's some timing problems, but there's a lot of really cool stuff that's being was being built.
00;58;13;18 - 00;58;26;26
Pri
So with quasi Matt and we were just like we started over like we're just so optimistic. Like it's going to be insane. I just love technology. Like like he's like, I've never felt this way before. Like I'm never like I've never been that excited about technology for I'm like, I actually kind of agree with you. Like, it's.
00;58;26;27 - 00;58;29;04
Aaron
Actually I mean, it's it's I think it's.
00;58;29;05 - 00;58;35;12
Pri
Like there's a lot of doom, but it's like, it's insane. Like the next ten years are going to be like awesome for technology.
00;58;35;13 - 00;58;58;20
Aaron
Yeah. And like even on the other points like for folks geek, that NFT is like it's a great technology. Like it solves a lot of problems and it will continue to to chug along, you know, the time horizon for that. Like, who knows? But I do think like the utility aspects of like NFTs, the utility aspects of crypto, like they're they're right.
00;58;58;26 - 00;59;04;29
Aaron
They may have, you know, the timing may be off, but I think the direction is kind of clear on all this stuff.
00;59;05;04 - 00;59;08;16
Pri
I agree on that note. Should we wrap up the pod?
00;59;08;18 - 00;59;15;29
Chris
Let's do that. Because if you ask for like some more optimism and then I put a dark cloud all over it again, I'm going to start feeling bad.
00;59;16;01 - 00;59;17;13
Pri
Yeah.
00;59;17;15 - 00;59;23;25
Aaron
Chris, you know, there's an easy way to get rid of that dark cloud. Jump on the next bandwagon.
00;59;23;27 - 00;59;25;03
Pri
I'm on that.
00;59;25;05 - 00;59;26;17
Aaron
Yeah. Even prejudged.
00;59;26;19 - 00;59;26;26
Pri
I'm.
00;59;26;26 - 00;59;29;05
Pri
Like, yo, Wemby.
00;59;29;08 - 00;59;33;15
Pri
Literally like, you literally don't even know what that is like.
00;59;33;16 - 00;59;39;01
Aaron
Shut up. New York's going to. New York's going to win a chip the first time in 20 years. Like, come on, man. Let's go.
00;59;39;03 - 00;59;41;17
Chris
The city is so alive.
00;59;41;19 - 00;59;42;24
Pri
It's electric.
00;59;42;25 - 00;59;52;08
Aaron
It's nice. Yeah. You know, we got you got the San Antonio Stadium looking like a 1990s Taco Bell commercial. It's great. Optimism is back. Chris.
00;59;52;09 - 00;59;55;01
Pri
Oh, you meant championship when you said Chip.
00;59;55;02 - 00;59;58;25
Chris
Yeah, not a chip. Fab three. All right, let's call this game.
00;59;58;26 - 01;00;15;23
Pri
All right. Well, welcome to net Society. Today you have Chris, Erin and myself talking all things tech, art, crypto, AI and more. Just as a quick reminder, these thoughts and opinions are our own and not of our employer. And none of this is financial advice.